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Control of Senate 2022
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[link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/]https://projects.fivethir…ction-forecast/senate/[/link]
Final 538 Senate forecast has GOP 59% likely to take the Senate with a median outcome at 50.9 seats.
The largest late shifts in the forecast include PA with OZ 57% chance of winning, GA with Walker 63%, and NV with Lexalt bringing it to a true toss-up at 51% chance.
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[link=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/abc-news-says-red-mirage-will-look-big-republican-win-vote-count-could-take-weeks]ABC News Says “Red Mirage” Will Look Like Big Republican Win, But Vote Count Could Take “Weeks” | ZeroHedge[/link]
Here we go again. The fix is already in. Third world countries count their votes in one day, yet somehow we need weeks of shenanigans.-
There has been a record number of early votes cast (something like 33 million) and estimates of those early votes are that they run around D+11
Combine that with the fact that by state law many states do not allow early votes to be counted (or even opened) before the polls close and the clear preference of GOP voters for in-person voting after repeated attacks on absentee, and the likelihood of a early red mirage goes up
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Sure sure, I’m sure there won’t be any glaring statistical abnormalities suggestive of in your face fraud.
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Dergon Im going to suggest we dont argue with skippy. You know starve the beast. They are only capable of Q-Anon level associations. In fact its now so absurd it feels like satire.
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Mail-in and early voting is a sick joke. People vote twice, tons of suspect ballots sent out, in 2020 I got 3 mail-in ballots in NJ and my wife never got one and had to fill out a provisional ballot. It’s a BS system.
Hell there’s even a peer-reviewed reports of widespread voter fruad in 2020 to the tune of like 250,000 votes in key swing states.
[link=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/03/28/new_peer-reviewed_research_finds_evidence_of_2020_voter_fraud_147378.html#!]New Peer-Reviewed Research Finds Evidence of 2020 Voter Fraud | RealClearPolitics[/link]
[link=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3756988]Simple tests for the extent of vote fraud with absentee and provisional ballots in the 2020 US presidential election by John R. Lott :: SSRN[/link]
Anyone with eyes can see, some just choose not to because they think it benefits them.-
Quote from Skripnik
Mail-in and early voting is a sick joke. People vote twice, tons of suspect ballots sent out, in 2020 I got 3 mail-in ballots in NJ and my wife never got one and had to fill out a provisional ballot. It’s a BS system.
Hell there’s even a peer-reviewed reports of widespread voter fruad in 2020 to the tune of like 250,000 votes in key swing states.
[link=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/03/28/new_peer-reviewed_research_finds_evidence_of_2020_voter_fraud_147378.html#!]New Peer-Reviewed Research Finds Evidence of 2020 Voter Fraud | RealClearPolitics[/link]
[link=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3756988]Simple tests for the extent of vote fraud with absentee and provisional ballots in the 2020 US presidential election by John R. Lott :: SSRN[/link]
Anyone with eyes can see, some just choose not to because they think it benefits them.
It’s always funny when people don’t even know the opposing sides issues/qualms/evidence/complaints. Mostly that’s because they can’t counter them – if they even care in the first place (they don’t, as you say, bought and sold).-
“Hmm. No one is buying my insane rants. Let me create my own journal and hire my crackpot friends to review “manuscripts” that I then publish in the journal I just created to give them a veneer or credibility. Then trolls will publish links to them!”
Sounds very John Lott — the guy whose “research” of Bush v. Gore in 2002 is literally in the textbooks of an example of bad methodology.
[link=https://books.google.com/books?id=1VQK7EGohB4C]https://books.google.com/books?id=1VQK7EGohB4C[/link]
Out of the piles and piles of bullsh*t fraud claims from the 2020 election, Lott’s “research” was so bad that it got called out in a publication of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[link=https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021PNAS..11803619E/abstract]https://ui.adsabs.harvard…AS..11803619E/abstract[/link]
His analysis was “entirely dependent on the completely arbitrary order in which pairs of precincts in other counties are entered in the dataset” … his conclusions about voter fraud were “utterly baseless.”
yep… that guy.
But hey …. it’s “Peer reviewed research!!” **eyeroll**
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Cybil errrrrrrrr I mean Intermittent blastoff back as multi posters
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Quote from Thread Killer
Dergon Im going to suggest we dont argue with skippy. You know starve the beast. They are only capable of Q-Anon level associations. In fact its now so absurd it feels like satire.
You have reasonable posts I’ve noticed (from those I’ve seen), so why are you saying things like this?-
Quote from Dream Run
Quote from Thread Killer
Dergon Im going to suggest we dont argue with skippy. You know starve the beast. They are only capable of Q-Anon level associations. In fact its now so absurd it feels like satire.
You have reasonable posts I’ve noticed (from those I’ve seen), so why are you saying things like this?
It started with the claim that the explanation for excess mortality in young people towards the end of the pandemic was due to vaccination.-
Well….. bed time.
Lots of close races. Guess I’ll see what it looks like in the morning.
No big surprises so far.-
Maybe I’m just finding info that soothes my rattled nerves but …
Regarding the NV senate race, John Ralston and Dave Wasserman about as well informed as you can get —
[link=https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1590695764036005894]https://twitter.com/there…us/1590695764036005894[/link]
Update on Nevada: Laxalt’s lead has shrunk to ~16,000, with at least 110,000 likely Dem-favorable mail ballots left. Both
[link=https://twitter.com/RalstonReports]@RalstonReports[/link]
&
[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict]@Redistrict[/link]
seem to favor incumbent Cortez Masto to retain seat if ballots hold trend, which would give Dems 50 heading into GA runoff._________________
[link=https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590596892966023171]https://twitter.com/Ralst…us/1590596892966023171[/link]
If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still in decisively.
If it is 60-35, same.
If it’s 55-30, same.
If it’s 55-35, same.
She wins in all those models.
Buckle up. Good night to all. See you for more math tomorrow!_____________
[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590693791576358912]https://twitter.com/Redis…us/1590693791576358912[/link]
After last night’s NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff.
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Quote from dergon
[link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/]https://projects.fivethir…ction-forecast/senate/[/link]
Final 538 Senate forecast has GOP 59% likely to take the Senate with a median outcome at 50.9 seats.
The largest late shifts in the forecast include PA with OZ 57% chance of winning, GA with Walker 63%, and NV with Lexalt bringing it to a true toss-up at 51% chance.
After listening to an NPR story this morning on the drive in about how hard it is to actually get anyone to respond to polling, I’m honestly surprised people listen to the “data” they collect. One woman said they had to weight a single person’s response to make up for the fact that the responses were so low. Yep, that should work.
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Polling has not been accurate since cellphones took the place of landlines
The Trafalgar people have been close but only with a few states that have a high trump voter component
Be interesting to see this time especially without trump on the ballot
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If Hershel Walker wins Georgia that is going to say a lot about people in Georgia.
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Simple, conservatives work and don’t have time for a survey, democrats blow hot air and talk all day. I’ve hung up on dozens of surveys in the past year and the ones I answered I was a young black woman voting for democrats across the board. I think at the end of one of them I screamed Wakanda Forever!
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There are no more conservatives
And the trumpers dont all work
Many are opioid addicted takers that just sit around and beatch all day about how terrible the world is and how everyone is out to get them
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Retirees too. All cranky & angry. Heard a few cranky complaining old men while voting today. They feel entitled the world owes them but stiffed them instead. And I dont mean all are impoverished living on SS only, many are affluent
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Quote from dergon
There has been a record number of early votes cast (something like 33 million) and estimates of those early votes are that they run around D+11
Combine that with the fact that by state law many states do not allow early votes to be counted (or even opened) before the polls close and the clear presence of GOP voters for in-person voting after repeated attacks on absentee, and the likelihood of a early red mirage goes up
I have no idea, but the smart people who look at this for a living are aware of that too, and the neutral ones are leaning more Republican last few days. Although all still saying the Senate is a toss-up.
That said, they have been incredibly wrong before. Particularly recently. And they’re all hedging their bets.
I definitely plan to stay up and watch results tonight.-
Weirdly they are reporting that Florida early voting down considerably as rest of the country up
Maybe hurricane related????
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Quote from BHE
Quote from dergon
There has been a record number of early votes cast (something like 33 million) and estimates of those early votes are that they run around D+11
Combine that with the fact that by state law many states do not allow early votes to be counted (or even opened) before the polls close and the clear presence of GOP voters for in-person voting after repeated attacks on absentee, and the likelihood of a early red mirage goes up
I have no idea, but the smart people who look at this for a living are aware of that too, and the neutral ones are leaning more Republican last few days. Although all still saying the Senate is a toss-up.
That said, they have been incredibly wrong before. Particularly recently. And they’re all hedging their bets.
I definitely plan to stay up and watch results tonight.
Yeah. Who the heck knows
And the “red mirage” thing doesn’t mean that Dems end up winning all those races. Just that there’s a good chance that the Republican margin on election night shrinks significantly as absentee ballots are counted in the following days-
I thought that was your point dergon. Amazing how many people don’t understand the phenomenon or try to manipulate it to their advantage.
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Wow, only an ivory tower lib would say that. Way to represent
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Ivory tower lib?
Only an entitled Trumper would say that.
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We will not have unofficial results in Pennsylvania on Election Night, and thats a fact.
Pennsylvanias acting secretary of state Leigh Chapman
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Arizona senate race called for Kelly.
NV still close to call with Lexalt (R) lead still in the thousands but incoming ballots trending for Cortez-Masto. -
NV senate update from Jon Ralston
[link=https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1591061666917031937]https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1591061666917031937[/link]
Good morning from The [link=https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeMatter?src=hashtag_click]#WeMatter[/link] State, and Happy Veterans Day, especially to those who served. Here’s where we are: Laxalt leads by 9K statewide over CCM. The news of this early AM is below, and let me tell you what it means.
,,,, (long thread)
Bottom line: This first batch of 35K mail ballots shows a partisan breakdown that strongly favors CCM, and if the trend continues, she is going to win.
But miles to go before I can finally sleep, and we will know a LOT when Clark/Washoe post tonight.
Good morning!
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[b]Lindsey Graham Declares Fraud in Nevada[/b][/h1]
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) went so far as to suggest fraud in Nevada if Adam Laxalt (R) isnt declared the winner of the U.S. Senate race, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/11/republicans-redirect-hopes-for-senate-majority-on-georgia-runoff-00066517]Politico[/link] reports.
Said Graham: There is no mathematical way Laxalt loses. If he does, then its a lie.
No evidence of election fraud has emerged and independent analysts have been expecting Cortez Masto to take the lead for days based on the number of outstanding mail votes in the most Democratic part of the state.-
He should be careful. The Daily podcast I posted yesterday showed an incredible correlation with fear of election deniers in a state and poor Republican performance in the mid-terms.
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on the plus side, that’s probably his “tell”
that says the GOP knows CCM is getting ready to win… time to pull out the fraud complaints.-
Quote from dergon
on the plus side, that’s probably his “tell”
that says the GOP knows CCM is getting ready to win… time to pull out the fraud complaints.
To be fair there does seem to be some correlation between how long the count takes and the chances that a D prevails-
Cortez Masto just took a nearly TWO TO ONE ballot advantage on same day ballots from drop boxes in Clark county.
SHE IS NOW 798 VOTES BEHIND LAXALT
I had predicted the same day drop box ballots would break dem in AZ. Looks like its true in NV.
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To be fair there does seem to be some correlation between how long the count takes and the chances that a D prevails
Directly correlated to the fact that Republicans have talked their own voters out of voting by mail.
A vote counts equally whether it case at the polls on election day, cast by mail weeks ago, dropped in drop box weeks ago, dropped in a drop box at 6pm on Tuesday. Each vote counts equally whether it is tabulated first, in the middle, or last.
The “Red Mirage” is a known phenomenon with a simple explanation. Since Donald Trump, Republican voters have turned away from mail-voting and show a strong preference for in-person voting the day of the election. Those votes are the first tabulated in many districts.
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Quote from jd4540
Quote from dergon
on the plus side, that’s probably his “tell”
that says the GOP knows CCM is getting ready to win… time to pull out the fraud complaints.
To be fair there does seem to be some [b]correlation[/b] between how long the count takes and the chances that a D prevails
Funny. Another one that doesn’t understand the difference between that and the other “c” word?-
If ballot percentages hold, Cortez-Masto (D) should overtake Adam Laxalt (R) in the NV Senate race at some point today.
Laxalt has denied a [i]Daily Mail[/i] report that he is already preparing a recount filing.
So current state of pay for the Senate is 49-49, likely heading to 50-49 D with the Georgia run-off to follow.
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Optimism FTW.
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[b]Georgia Still Matters[/b][/h1]
[link=https://nicco.substack.com/p/miles-to-go-before-we-sleep?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=59841&post_id=84342805&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email]Nicco Mele[/link]: Do not fool yourself into thinking Democrats control the Senate yet; technically a 50/50 Senate requires bi-partisan power-sharing. In the last Senate, that meant Republicans blocked a January 6th Commission its why that job was taken up by the House of Representatives.
A Democratic victory in the Georgia run-off is hugely important because a 51-49 does not require power-sharing which Democrats will want if a Republican House pursues impeachment and other wastes of time and money.
_________
It would also be a nice one-seat cushion going in to a tough map for Dems in 2024.
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[h3][link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/18/warnock-walker-georgia-senate-runoff/]Democrats welcome Trump’s shadow in Georgia Senate Runoff.[/link][/h3]
For every person that likes Trump, there are two people that really hate Trump, said Gabriel Delille, a student at Georgia State University who is voting for Warnock. He said he is not glad that Trump is planning another run for president, but hes a good tool for Democrats to use to motivate the base, because you cant have that man in office.
Warnocks campaign released a new TV ad Thursday calling attention to Trumps endorsement of Walker during his speech at Mar-a-Lago. It features a clip of the former president praising the GOP candidate and urging people to Get out and vote for Herschel. The ad ends with the words Stop Donald Trump and Stop Herschel Walker...
Anthony Leavell, a Walker backer from McDonough, said he thinks Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Kemp could help Walker in the dwindling weeks before the runoff, but not Trump.
To be honest with you, I think it would hurt him, Leavell said of a possible Trump visit.
[/QUOTE]
also,
interesting commentary that I had not heard until this morning –Despite the fact that he is expected to campaign for Herschel (after arm twisting by McConnell), Brian Kemp reportedly wants Walker’s senate seat in 6 years. He doesn’t want Walker sitting in it and getting more comfortable and popular with the GOP base. From a political standpoint Kemp would rather have Warnock win … as long as he doesn’t get blamed for it.
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[b]Judge Allows Saturday Early Voting in Senate Runoff[/b][/h1]
A Fulton County judge ruled Friday that the Georgia Secretary of State cannot prohibit counties from voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, a victory for the state Democratic Party and Sen. Raphael Warnocks campaign, [link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/win-democrats-georgia-judge-allows-early-voting-senate-runoff-saturday-rcna57983]NBC News[/link] reports.
The order comes after a brief legal battle between Secretary of State Brad Raffenspergers office and the Democratic Party of Georgia over the Dec. 6 Senate runoff between Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.
Raffensperger, a Republican, had maintained that changes to Georgia voting laws meant that there could be no early voting on Nov. 26, the only Saturday when it would have been possible for Georgians to cast an early vote in the hotly contested race.-
Good news. Georgia is like the gold standard for suppressing minority voting. So good for that judge.
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Warnock has released an ad in GA … pretty much the whole thing is just running tape of Trump endorsing Herschel Walker 🙂
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Total BS. The gold standard? Please then explain why the midterms in Georgia turnout was 4% higher on election day than the 2020 turn out? Please explain how there was suppression when the early voting was over 2 million before election day? Please explain how there was a 71% absentee ballot return? Please explain how Georgia is suppressing voters while they broke records in midterm voting? In fact I believe I read somewhere based on Senate and gubernatorial votes Georgia also showed there was a significant amount of ticket splitting going on.
WaPo
But after three weeks of early voting ahead of Tuesdays primary, record-breaking turnout is undercutting predictions that the Georgia Election Integrity Act of 2021 would lead to a falloff in voting.[b] [/b] more than three times the number in 2018, and higher even than in 2020, a presidential year.-
Quote from Ixrayu
Total BS. The gold standard? Please then explain why the midterms in Georgia turnout was 4% higher on election day than the 2020 turn out? Please explain how there was suppression when the early voting was over 2 million before election day? Please explain how there was a 71% absentee ballot return? Please explain how Georgia is suppressing voters while they broke records in midterm voting? In fact I believe I read somewhere based on Senate and gubernatorial votes Georgia also showed there was a significant amount of ticket splitting going on.
WaPo
But after three weeks of early voting ahead of Tuesdays primary, record-breaking turnout is undercutting predictions that the Georgia Election Integrity Act of 2021 would lead to a falloff in voting.[b] [/b] more than three times the number in 2018, and higher even than in 2020, a presidential year.
I’d cut Dan some slack. He seems to toe the party line while on auto-pilot, and has an unrealistic overly-optimistic views of the current administration. He was actual hopeful that the Biden administration would nail the Saudi’s for Khashoggi’s murder. Instead they granted MBS immunity!
“The decision has already drawn an angry reaction. Amnesty International, an international non-governmental organization focused on human rights, [link=https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/saudi-arabia-biden-administrations-attempt-to-grant-immunity-to-mohammed-bin-salman-is-a-deep-betrayal/]said Friday[/link] that the US government should hang its head in shame. This is nothing more than a sickening, total, deep betrayal.”
“Cengiz also [link=https://twitter.com/mercan_resifi/status/1593467080782872576?s=20&t=nyApxOFa9L3T1w5bRvcCXA]tweeted[/link], Biden saved the murderer by granting immunity. He saved the criminal and got involved in the crime himself. Lets see who will save you in the hereafter?”
[link=https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/saudi-crown-prince-immunity-state-department-jamal-khashoggi]https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/saudi-crown-prince-immunity-state-department-jamal-khashoggi[/link]#Biden saved the murderer by granting immunity. He saved the criminal and got involved in the crime himself. Let's see who will save you in the hereafter? @POTUS https://t.co/TVFx4xSa3j
— Hatice Cengiz خديجة (@mercan_resifi) November 18, 2022
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I’d cut Dan some slack. He seems to toe the party line while on auto-pilot, and has an unrealistic overly-optimistic views of the current administration. He was actual hopeful that the Biden administration would nail the Saudi’s for Khashoggi’s murder. Instead they granted MBS immunity!
Pretty sure Dan voted for Trump in 2016
Not real sure he is a party line tower as you sa
Perhaps you are projecting-
Before Trump Dan was pretty much the poster child for a true Aunt Minnie centrist.
He’s certainly not a leftist by policy position or social attitude.
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So explain why they eliminated Souls to the Polls. Is there another State where its illegal to give food or water to someone in line to vote?
I dont like Trump at all but I dont think that makes me leftist. Or does wanting to see more people vote make you a leftist?
I did vote for Trump in 2016. Couldnt pull the trigger on Hillary. Turns out she was dead on about Trump though. Even if I did vote for HRC it wouldnt have mattered in OH. And then Trump turned me into a no more Trumper.
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Quote from Chirorad84
I’d cut Dan some slack. He seems to toe the party line while on auto-pilot, and has an unrealistic overly-optimistic views of the current administration. He was actual hopeful that the Biden administration would nail the Saudi’s for Khashoggi’s murder. Instead they granted MBS immunity!
Pretty sure Dan voted for Trump in 2016
Not real sure he is a party line tower as you sa
Perhaps you are projecting
Projecting that I toe the Dem or Rep party line? OK I suppose.
Was unaware/surprised that Dan voted for Trump in 2016. These days he seems a solid D based on posts
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[b][i]Is there another State where its illegal to give food or water to someone in line to vote?[/i][/b][b][i] [/i][/b]
Not true. The law does not prevent water, food. The law prevents candidates, political parties, campaign workers from giving water, food etc. within 150 feet of the edge of the building where polling is occurring. My state has a 75 foot limit. The law does not stop non-partisan individuals from giving water. In fact water stations can and are set up by election workers, not parties or candidates.
Biden’s assertion of Jim Crow on steroids was a partisan comment. The numbers that voted show it.
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No Ixrayu, your post is not true.
[link=https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/04/06/food-water-ban-polling-places/]https://www.snopes.com/ne…er-ban-polling-places/[/link]
In reality, election laws such as S.B. 202 in Georgia, which explicitly prohibits members of the public from providing food and water directly to voters, are very rare. In fact, we found only two other states, Montana and New York, that impose even somewhat similar bans. Title 13, Chapter 35, Section 211(2) of the Montana Code states that:On election day, a candidate, a family member of a candidate, or a worker or volunteer for the candidate’s campaign may not distribute alcohol, tobacco, food, drink, or anything of value to a voter within a polling place or a building in which an election is being held or within 100 feet of an entrance to the building in which the polling place is located.
Indeed, Montana’s prohibition is actually less restrictive than Georgia’s, because it applies only to candidates or individuals linked to them or their campaign, whereas Georgia’s S.B. 202 states that:
“No person shall… give, offer to give, or participate in the giving of any money or gifts, including, but not limited to, food and drink, to an elector…”
It should be noted again that Georgia’s controversial new law explicitly does not prevent a poll officer from “making available self-service water from an unattended receptacle to an elector waiting in line to vote.” However, it also does not require a poll officer to make self-service water available to voters.
In New York state, it’s prohibited to provide “meat, drink, tobacco, refreshment or provision” to a voter at a polling place, except if the retail value of what you give them is less that $1, and the person or entity providing it is not identified. So a kindhearted stranger wearing no identifying badges or clothing would very likely be legally permitted to hand out small bottles of water to voters waiting in line in New York, but the same activity is subject to a blanket ban in Georgia.
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The law does not stop non-partisan individuals from giving water. In fact water stations can and are set up by election workers, not parties or candidates.
What part of that statement is not true Frumi?
Sure your post says its not required but why make the statement the above post is not true?
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And there is no need to label DCD in this discussion. In fact this is exactly what I have been suggesting keeps us from discussing the facts in a reasoned manner. Speak to the statements, not the inferred meaning based on who you think the person is affiliated with.
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Yes what part isn’t true?
a) No person shall solicit votes in any manner or by any means or method, nor shall any person distribute or display any campaign material, nor shall any person give, offer to give, or participate in the giving of any money or gifts, including, but not limited to, food and
drink, to an elector, nor shall any person solicit signatures for any petition, nor shall any
person, other than election officials discharging their duties, establish or set up any tables or booths on any day in which ballots are being cast
(1) Within 150 feet of the outer edge of any building within which a polling place is
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Quote from Ixrayu
Yes what part isn’t true?
a) No person shall solicit votes in any manner or by any means or method, nor shall any person distribute or display any campaign material, nor shall any person give, offer to give, or participate in the giving of any money or gifts, including, but not limited to, food and
drink, to an elector, nor shall any person solicit signatures for any petition, nor shall any
person, other than election officials discharging their duties, establish or set up any tables or booths on any day in which ballots are being cast
(1) Within 150 feet of the outer edge of any building within which a polling place isOnce you quote the whole paragraph rather than the selective edit, it is pretty clear that it forbids electioneering using gifts or food. Has there been any case law that expands the prohibition to nonpartisan entities ?
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Yes Frumi. Read it all
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And you still do not understand reading English ADHD.
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Quote from fw
Quote from Ixrayu
Yes what part isn’t true?
a) No person shall solicit votes in any manner or by any means or method, nor shall any person distribute or display any campaign material, nor shall any person give, offer to give, or participate in the giving of any money or gifts, including, but not limited to, food and
drink, to an elector, nor shall any person solicit signatures for any petition, nor shall any
person, other than election officials discharging their duties, establish or set up any tables or booths on any day in which ballots are being cast
(1) Within 150 feet of the outer edge of any building within which a polling place isOnce you quote the whole paragraph rather than the selective edit, it is pretty clear that it forbids electioneering using gifts or food. Has there been any case law that expands the prohibition to nonpartisan entities ?
Did you read it all before spouting off Frumi?
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The Georgia law was not specifically about electioneering. Consider not only the language but the timing & stated intent for the law.
[link=https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/mar/29/josh-holmes/facts-about-georgias-ban-food-water-giveaways-vote/]https://www.politifact.co…-water-giveaways-vote/[/link]“Why on earth, if Americans are willing to wait in hours to vote, would you make it a crime for people to come and give them a bottle of water?” Wallace asked. Holmes said a Georgia law has not “criminalized giving people bottles of water.”
It pertains to political organizations.
SB 202 makes it a crime for people and not just people from political organizations to hand out food or bottles of water within 150 feet of a polling place or 25 feet of any voter standing in line.
The only kernel of truth is that the law has a sentence which allows poll workers to make available “self-service water from an unattended receptacle to an elector waiting in line to vote.” But just because poll workers can make self-service water available, doesnt mean they are required to come up with a way to make water accessible to voters in every line at every polling site. Also, people could hand out water or food to voters outside the 150-foot and 25-foot boundaries.We rate this statement Mostly False.-
[link=https://reason.com/2021/03/26/georgia-bans-handing-out-water-to-voters-waiting-in-line-because-election-integrity/]https://reason.com/2021/03/26/georgia-bans-handing-out-water-to-voters-waiting-in-line-because-election-integrity/[/link]
Republicans rush through a ream of voting restrictions in Georgia.
Under the new law, “it shall be illegal for any person tophotograph or record a voted ballot.” Anyone who does so will be guilty of a misdemeanor crime. -
[link=https://reason.com/2021/03/26/georgia-bans-handing-out-water-to-voters-waiting-in-line-because-election-integrity/]https://reason.com/2021/03/26/georgia-bans-handing-out-water-to-voters-waiting-in-line-because-election-integrity/[/link]
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What does doesnt mean they are required have to do with being against the law?
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[b]Obama to Hold Rally for Raphael Warnock[/b][/h1]
Former President Barack Obama is returning to Atlanta for the second time this campaign season, this time to hold a rally for U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff, the [link=https://www.ajc.com/politics/obama-to-hold-dec-1-runoff-rally-for-warnock-in-atlanta/QQ2WITYKTFGXRKMQKMCOXOIIS4/]Atlanta Journal Constitution[/link] reports.
Obama will headline a Dec. 1 event for Warnock to boost turnout in the race against Republican hopeful Herschel Walker.
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Quote from Thread Killer
The law does not stop non-partisan individuals from giving water. In fact water stations can and are set up by election workers, not parties or candidates.
What part of that statement is not true Frumi?
Sure your post says its not required but why make the statement the above post is not true?
Quote from Frumious
Indeed, Montana’s prohibition is actually less restrictive than Georgia’s, because it applies only to candidates or individuals linked to them or their campaign, whereas Georgia’s S.B. 202 states that:
“No person shall… give, offer to give, or participate in the giving of any money or gifts, including, but not limited to, food and drink, to an elector…”
Please learn to read & understand before you post, ADHD/Killer. Georgias law DOES EXPLICITLY state no person.
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from Thread Killer
The law does not stop non-partisan individuals from [b]giving[/b] water. In fact water stations can and are set up by election workers, not parties or candidates.
What part of that statement is not true Frumi?
Sure your post says its not required but why make the statement the above post is not true?
Quote from Frumious
Indeed, Montana’s prohibition is actually less restrictive than Georgia’s, because it applies only to candidates or individuals linked to them or their campaign, whereas Georgia’s S.B. 202 states that:
“[b]No person[/b] shall… give, offer to give, or participate in the giving of any money or gifts, including, but not limited to, food and drink, to an elector…”
Please learn to read & understand before you post, ADHD/Killer. Georgias law DOES EXPLICITLY state no person.
No partisan person. As was pointed out. Water can be given by the poll workers. Honestly that’s the best plan. Why would a polling station that knows it will have long lines not be prepared to give water to those using it?
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You are the only one here that holds that distinction.
In fact your last few links and quotes in this forum have shown how susceptible and gullible you are to political marketing that doesn’t tell the whole story. I would say it’s worse than the FOX viewers. Why? Because you are supposed to be smarter than them.-
LOL
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Yep, that’s all you have. Critical statements with no evidence. Take a look at my edited comments. It’s so true it hurts.
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[b]Saturday Voting Upheld in Georgia Runoff[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-appeals-court-allows-saturday-early-voting-in-us-senate-runoff/NNQ4B7DY25ARVGXK7AQPNBDSMM/]Atlanta Journal-Constitution[/link]: The Georgia Court of Appeals has denied an attempt to stop early voting on Saturday for the U.S. Senate runoff, a ruling that allows counties to open polling places after the Thanksgiving holiday.
The courts one-sentence decision Monday evening was a victory for Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnocks campaign, which along with the Democratic Party of Georgia sued to ensure the weekend voting opportunity. -
[h1][b]Raphael Warnock Has Slight Edge in Georgia[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/a-georgia-senate-runoff-poll-points-to-challenges-for-walker-warnock/6LDXR4OMDFEALMQCJEGFWUF2QM/]AARP poll[/link] in Georgia shows Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) in the Senate runoff, 51% to 47%.
Key takeaway: Among independent voters, Warnock leads 54% to 39%.
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Quote from dergon
[h1][b]Raphael Warnock Has Slight Edge in Georgia[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/a-georgia-senate-runoff-poll-points-to-challenges-for-walker-warnock/6LDXR4OMDFEALMQCJEGFWUF2QM/]AARP poll[/link] in Georgia shows Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) in the Senate runoff, 51% to 47%.Key takeaway: Among independent voters, Warnock leads 54% to 39%.
51% to 47% seems to me more like pretty high likelihood of winning for Warnock
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The independents in GA are a strange bunch. Why not higher? HW is a real loon. Perhaps they are in favor of a BHE desired divided government? Sounds like independent turn out will be important though.
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Hersh seemed to call Warnock a pedophile on stage. I’d like to see Warnock file a lawsuit on him.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Hersh seemed to call Warnock a pedophile on stage. I’d like to see Warnock file a lawsuit on him.
Lies told about an opponent in a political campaign are protected first amendment speech
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[link]https://youtu.be/iwldLFDfzu8[/link]
Warnock Thanksgiving ad.
[image]https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/images/smilies/thumbsup.gif[/image]
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Quote from dergon
[link=https://youtu.be/iwldLFDfzu8]https://youtu.be/iwldLFDfzu8[/link]
Warnock Thanksgiving ad.
[image]https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/images/smilies/thumbsup.gif[/image]
Nice to see a purely positive ad. He comes across as moderate, tolerant, kind, and wise.
also, I think, smart. He’s got the Dem base. The question is moderates/independents. This will appeal to them, most of whom probably don’t want to vote for Walker in the first place. Keep it positive, make it an easy decision.
particularly with the Senate already decided, what reason is there to vote for Walker? I don’t live in Georgia so haven’t followed closely, but he sounds like a terrible candidate. Does GA really need Walker and MTG???-
Quote from BHE
Quote from dergon
[link=https://youtu.be/iwldLFDfzu8]https://youtu.be/iwldLFDfzu8[/link]
Warnock Thanksgiving ad.
[image]https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/images/smilies/thumbsup.gif[/image]
Nice to see a purely positive ad. He comes across as moderate, tolerant, kind, and wise.
also, I think, smart. He’s got the Dem base. The question is moderates/independents. This will appeal to them, most of whom probably don’t want to vote for Walker in the first place. Keep it positive, make it an easy decision.
[b] particularly with the Senate already decided, what reason is there to vote for Walker?[/b] I don’t live in Georgia so haven’t followed closely, but he sounds like a terrible candidate. [b]Does GA really need Walker and MTG???[/b]
So true BHE, which is why I wondered why Warnock is not polling even higher among independents. Perhaps smart voters in GA are not worried anymore knowing congress is essentially deadlocked?
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great warnock ad
[link=https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1596656847397609472]https://twitter.com/NoLie…us/1596656847397609472[/link]
