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Control of Senate 2022
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wasn’t expecting this …
[link=https://floridapolitics.com/archives/544780-new-poll-shows-val-demings-marco-rubio-tied-in-floridas-u-s-senate-race/]https://floridapolitics.c…ridas-u-s-senate-race/[/link]
[b]New poll shows Val Demings, Marco Rubio tied in Floridas U.S. Senate race[/b]
Numbers from [b][link=https://progressflorida.org/]Progress Florida[/link][/b] and [b][link=https://floridawatch.org/]Florida Watch[/link][/b] show Sen. [b]Marco Rubio [/b]and Democratic challenger [b]Val Demings [/b]tied, each with 45% support from those polled.
Demings holds even with Rubio in the polling despite remaining an unknown quantity to more than a third of Florida voters. Gauging the favorability of both candidates, pollsters from The Hub found 36% of voters have a favorable view of the Orlando Congresswoman, 30% hold an unfavorable view and 34% said they could not rate her.
Meanwhile, voters know Rubio but more dislike him than like him. Pollsters found 52% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the two-term Senator, while just 43% hold a favorable view. That leaves only 5% neutral on the Senator as he sits nine percentage points underwater.[/QUOTE]https://twitter.com/EvanDonovan/status/1556412007682899978
Worth noting — this poll would be outside what we’ve seen.
In February it was +9 average for Rubio between @UNFPORL and @MasonDixonPoll.@ppppolls had Rubio +6 in July
But after the Kansas vote this week, it seems like November is more uncertain than previously thought
— Evan Donovan (@EvanDonovan) August 7, 2022
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Not surprised at all
Florida is not a red state no matter what the National media thinks
The problem with florida is an inept and incompetent Democratic Party
Northern florida is basically Alabama
Southern florida is metropolitan moderately strong Democratic particularly near Miami browsed and brevard
The middle of the state is usually 50-50. Its called the I-4 corridor
Usually whoever wins the I-4 corridor wins the state
Demmings husband is mayor of Orlando and she is a congresswoman from that area
Shes a great candidate
No surprises at all
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And Desantis isnt as popular in Florida as everyone thinks
He is benefiting from a totally inept Democratic Party
Desantis would lose if the snowbirds did not vote
The old farts like him because of the social issues
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Marco is kind of a little idiot too.
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[link=https://centerstreetpac.com/poll-mark-kelly-leads-blake-masters-54-to-40-in-arizona/]https://centerstreetpac.c…s-54-to-40-in-arizona/[/link]
[h1]POLL: Mark Kelly Leads Blake Masters 54% to 40% Among Likely Voters in Arizonas U.S. Senate Race[/h1]
[img]https://centerstreetpac.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AZ-Preference-Graph-All-Demos-1024×677.png[/img]
leading among independents by a whopping 31 pts
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[h1]Senate GOP Campaign Arm Slashes TV Ad Buys in 3 States[/h1] [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/politics/senate-gop-ad-wisconsin-pennsylvania-arizona.html]New York Times[/link]:
The Republicans Senate campaign committee has slashed its television ad reservations in three critical battleground states for the fall, a likely sign of financial troubles headed into the peak of the 2022 midterm election season.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has cut more than $5 million in Pennsylvania, including its reservations in the Philadelphia media market.
Reservations in Wisconsin, in the Madison and Green Bay markets, have also been curtailed, by more than $2 million. And in Arizona, all reservations after Sept. 30 have been cut in Phoenix and Tucson, the states only two major media markets, amounting to roughly $2 million more.[/QUOTE]
Teagan Goddard: ‘This is a clear admission that Donald Trumps favored candidates arent worth the investment.”
[h1][/h1] -
[b]Mandela Barnes Widens Lead In Wisconsin[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559954005438218240]Marquette Law School Poll[/link] in Wisconsin finds Mandela Barnes (D) leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 44%.
In June, Barnes led by 46% to 44%. -
[h3][b][link=https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/08/national-republican-group-plans-massive-ad-buy-boosting-jd-vance-signaling-deepening-gop-focus-on-ohios-senate-race.html]National Republican group plans massive ad buy boosting[/link] J.D. Vance, signaling deepening GOP focus on Ohios Senate race
[/b][/h3] A political action committee with close ties to U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is launching a massive new ad campaign in Ohio, a clear sign that national Republicans are shifting more toward playing defense in the Buckeye State.
The Senate Leadership Fund is reserving $28 million worth of TV and radio ads that will air statewide, the group announced Thursday. Thats a huge escalation [link=https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/08/jd-vance-national-republicans-start-tv-ads-in-ohio-after-early-silence-in-us-senate-race.html]of the roughly $5 million[/link] national Republicans have spent in Ohio so far in the race between Republican J.D. Vance and Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan. The ads will start after Labor Day, the unofficial start of the most intense part of a general-election campaign season.
[h3]
…[/h3] {T}he new boost in spending clearly reflects deepening concerns among national Republicans over [link=https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/07/do-new-fundraising-numbers-in-ohios-us-senate-race-between-jd-vance-and-tim-ryan-provide-a-ray-of-hope-for-democrats.html]Ryans significant fundraising advantage over Vance[/link], which allowed the Ryan campaign to run unrebutted ads throughout the summer that aimed to brand Ryan as pragmatic and Vance as extreme. National Republicans still say they think Vance ultimately will win in November.
[h3][/QUOTE][/h3]
New polling is tight-ish
[h3][link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3607042-vance-leading-ryan-by-3-points-in-ohio-senate-race-poll/]Vance leading Ryan by 3 points in Ohio Senate race: [/link][/h3]
That’s compared to a 16 point lead for DeWine.[link=https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2022-jd-vance-leads-tim-ryan-in-competitive-bid-for-us-senate-gov-dewine-holds-16-point-lead-over-democratic-challenger/]https://emersoncollegepol…democratic-challenger/[/link]
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[link=http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~/707578102/0/usatodaycomwashington-topstories~In-Nevada-Democrats-midterm-prospects-look-better-despite-headwinds-Suffolk-poll/]In Nevada, Democrats’ midterm prospects look better despite headwinds: Suffolk poll
[/link]
In Nevada, incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto leads her Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, by seven percentage points (45%-38%), according to a [link=https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states]new poll conducted by Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette-Journal.[/link]
Cortez Masto’s latest polling numbers are a significant voter swing in her favor. In April, in a hypothetical matchup prior to winning the Nevada Republican primary, Laxalt led Cortez Masto by 3 percentage points (43%-40%) according to a previous poll also conducted by Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette-Journal.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the Nevada Senate race as a toss-up election that could determine control of the Senate. The poll’s findings come as eyebrows raise within the Republican Party over the [link=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/19/mitch-mcconnell-cautious-gop-senate-midterms/7847080001/]quality and electability of GOP candidates in purple swing states.[/link][/QUOTE]
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[link=https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/co-sen-0823/]https://www.thetrafalgarg.up.org/news/co-sen-0823/[/link]
Trafalgar has Bennett (D) +6 in Colorado
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[link=https://www.thebulwark.com/team-normals-new-hampshire-nightmare/]Tim Miller[/link]:
[h1]Team Normals New Hampshire Nightmare[/h1] [b]Republicans could have had one of the most popular governors in America flipping a Dem Senate seat. Instead, theyve got General Don Bolduc.[/b]
Governor Sununu took a pass on the race, not being particularly keen on jobs where rioters target his office if he doesnt submit to a game show hosts autocratic delusions, leaving the Republican primary wide open.
The frontrunner is Brigadier General Don Bolduc. He is not, like Sununu, a popular mainstream R with a track record of success; hes an absolute loon who lost a Senate primary in 2020 and is a favorite in Bannons War Room where he is referred to only as The General, as if he were some kind of [link=https://villains.fandom.com/wiki/General_Ivan_Radek]exiled Kazak communist who Bannon is demanding be released from prison[/link].
Which happens to be exactly the profile Republican primary voters are looking for this year. As such, The General leads in a [link=https://www.wmur.com/article/poll-new-hampshire-republican-us-senate-primary/40901710]recent poll[/link] with 32 percent.[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-august-24-2022/]Kyle Kondik[/link] of Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball is changing the Ohio Senate race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
We have been waiting to see if Republicans had to mount a rescue mission for Vance. The [i]Hillbilly Elegy[/i] author has been outraised, outspent, and outmaneuvered all summer by Rep. Tim Ryan (D, OH-13), who has been using his superior funding to both hammer Vance and bolster himself. Our understanding is that private polling in the race is good for Ryan and that an internal poll released several weeks ago by Ryans campaign showing him leading 48%-45% may actually [i]understate[/i] his advantage compared to unreleased surveys on both sides. A couple of recently released [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/ohio/]public polls[/link], one from Emerson College and the other from the GOP firm Trafalgar, showed Vance up 3 and 5 points respectively.
Our best guess continues to be that the eventual margin is likelier to be around what those recent public polls say, a modestly-sized Vance win. But this gigantic ad reservation by SLF has to be taken into account as well, a sign that top Republicans believe that they cannot just take this race for granted that it will take real money to snap this race back to where Republicans believe it should be (and part of the reason that the ad buy is so large is that Ohio does not have a dominant media market, so ad buyers have to book in many markets to effectively cover the state).
Were moving the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Our confidence in Vance winning remains, but we do not feel as strongly about it as we previously did.[/QUOTE]
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if JD wins OH that will be a crime against the people of this state.
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[b]Mandela Barnes Leads Ron Johnson in Wisconsin[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wi-sen-0828/]Trafalgar Group poll[/link] in Wisconsin finds Mandela Barnes (D) leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in the U.S, Senate race, 49% to 47%. -
[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/]https://centerforpolitics…a-to-leans-democratic/[/link]
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) :
[h1]Senate Rating Changes: Arizona & Pennsylvania move to ‘Leans Democratic'[/h1] new map –
[img]https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/2022_08_29_Senate_Ratings_600.png[/img]
Do we think Kelly would win by high single digits, as some polls suggest? No way. But taking into account the Democratic spending disparity, Kellys candidate-quality advantages over Masters, and the environment looking not as bad for Democrats, we dont really think this is a true Toss-up anymore. So Leans Democratic it is.
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Ozs high unfavorable rating appears to have carried over to the general electorate: in an Emerson College [link=https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2022-fetterman-holds-four-point-lead-over-oz-for-us-senate-shapiro-leads-mastriano-by-three/]poll[/link] released last week, Oz trailed Fetterman by 4 points. While this has been one of the closer polls out in recent weeks and Fetterman sported only a so-so 48%/46% favorable spread in it, Oz was firmly on negative ground, sitting at 41%/56%.
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It is not as though Republicans have nothing to use against Fetterman despite his well-crafted, burly image, he is not particularly moderate. But image does matter in politics, and Fettermans is just stronger than Ozs, at least for now.[/QUOTE]
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Rick Scott fires back at McConnell. (If you’re a Dem, seeing the head of the RSCC going after the Senate minority leader 60 days ahead of the mid-term has to feel good)
[link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/sen-rick-scott-lashes-republicans-trash-talk-partys-candidates-rcna45841]Sen. Rick Scott lashes out at Republicans (** Mitch McConnell**) who are ‘trash-talking’ their party’s candidates
[/link][link=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/washington-versus-republican-voters]op-ed in the Washington Examiner[/link]
Ultimately, though, when you complain and lament that we have bad candidates, what you are really saying is that you have contempt for the voters who chose them. Now we are at the heart of the matter. Much of Washington’s chattering class disrespects and secretly (or not so secretly) loathes Republican voters.These self-appointed smart guys in Washington think they (not the voters) should be able to choose our candidates. The D.C. crowd should not choose candidates, and they do not, and they will not. The D.C. crowd did not choose me and actively opposed me in 2010 when I ran for governor in the Florida Republican primary. If the D.C. crowd was right, I wouldnt be in the Senate.
We have great candidates with incredible backgrounds and ideas to make our country better. Do I wish they had more money than their Democratic opponent? Of course. But we have great candidates, chosen by the voters in their states, and our job is to help each one of them win. And, once a candidate wins, Washington will (as usual) immediately change its collective mind and say, I was secretly on the senators side the whole time.[/QUOTE]
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Just heard a CNN interview on [i]State of the Union[/i] with Tiffany Smiley (R), who is looking to unseat Patty Murray from the Washington senate seat.
Host gave Smiley 3 opportunities to say that Joe Biden was the duly elected President … and three times she went with the “He [b]is[/b] the President” dodge.
1 minute later the host read Smiley a past quote during the WA primary where she was seeking Donald Trump’s endorsement and asked (multiple times) is she still welcomed Trump’s endorsement … refused to answer.
Total eyeroll of an interview. [image]https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif[/image]
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“General” Bolduc wins the GOP nomination for New Hampshire’s Senate seat, now the 7th GOP Senate candidate this year without prior elected office experience.
It is currently “Lean Dem” rating … that’s not likely to change with the more extreme Bolduc winning the primary.
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[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3639388-far-right-candidate-causes-headaches-for-gop-in-new-hampshire/]https://thehill.com/homen…-gop-in-new-hampshire/[/link]
Far-right candidate causes headaches for GOP in New Hampshire[/h1]
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New Marquette University Law Poll of WISCONSIN (change from Aug. 10-15 poll):
Senate Johnson (R-inc) 49 (+5)
Barnes (D) 48 (-3)Gov Evers (D-inc) 47 (+2) M
ichels (R) 44 (+1)(Sept. 6-11, 632 LVs, +/-4.9%)
[link=https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1570102300898893825]https://twitter.com/Jacob…us/1570102300898893825[/link]
Here’s what I wrote about this race last week. The MU Law poll is just one data point, but it indicates that Barnes’ position has slipped somewhat as he takes serious fire for the first time.
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fcofe6WWAAAukz2?format=png&name=small[/img]
