-
Control of Senate 2022
-
[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-sununus-vital-choice/]Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball[/link]: Gov. Chris Sununus (R) decision as to whether he will challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) could be the most important candidate choice of the 2022 cycle.
While Republicans will target vulnerable Democrats in states that are more competitive at the presidential level than New Hampshire, they very well may struggle to produce a candidate in those states as proven as Sununu.
-
[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/557023-trump-endorses-ted-budd-for-senate]https://thehill.com/homen…es-ted-budd-for-senate[/link]
Trump endorses Ted Budd in the NC Senate race as Lara Trump decides not to run.
(watching clips of the speech last night it really feels like we are the “fat Elvis” phase of the Trump career
and none of the cable news networks ran it live) -
[h2][link=https://politicalwire.com/2021/06/08/trump-gives-democrats-a-shot-at-flipping-north-carolina/]Trump Gives Democrats a Shot at Flipping North Carolina[/link][/h2]Congressional Republicans performed well in 2020 by nominating candidates in swing races who could sidestep Trumps negative attributes while still reaping the benefits of an energetic base. But Trumps [link=https://politicalwire.com/2021/06/05/trump-endorses-ted-budd-for-senate-in-north-carolina/]recent endorsement[/link] of Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina for Senate may be the rare occasion where they fail to optimize based on this formula.
To see why, I recommend watching Budds 3-minute [link=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0gnXHPArcQ]campaign announcement video[/link]. Its replete with a monster truck running over the liberal agenda and Budd at one point being offered a military-style rifle in case he needs to [link=https://twitter.com/DavidTSJonas/status/1387410262249119744]kill political opponents[/link].
Im not exaggerating that last point.
This kind of persona may serve him well in a crowded GOP primary, but its relatively unproven for a statewide election in a purple state without Trump on the ticket.
For sure, Budd could win in a midterm election through a pure-base strategy, but as weve seen, pressing those buttons too hard tends to motivate Democrats as well. Thats playing with a lot of fire for a midterm electorate in a 50-50 state. Perhaps Budd pivots to a more inclusive approach for the general. Perhaps North Carolina Republicans shrug off the endorsement and end up nominating a different challenger such as former Gov. Pat McCrory.
But if Im a North Carolina Democrat, Im starting to see the pieces come together for flipping a pivotal Senate seat in 2022.[/QUOTE]
-
Trump May Be Sabotaging the GOPs Senate Prospects
Josh Kraushaar: Former President Trump could have been an important asset for the GOP, turning out voters as it seeks to regain control of Congress in next years midterm elections. But, out of office, hes continuing his destructive behavior, endorsing weaker candidates in contested primaries, squelching the campaigns of erstwhile allies, and elevating not-ready-for-prime-time contenders in must-win Senate contests.
His erratic behavior since losing the presidential electionexemplified by his conspiracy theorizing and suppression of the GOP vote in Georgias Senate runoffs in January, handing Democrats the majorityis only accelerating as the midterms draw closer. Its leading to increasing Republican pessimism about their chances of retaking the Senate majority next year, even as the political environment is awfully favorable on paper to the party out of power.
[/QUOTE]
-
[b]Top Democrats Warn Against Bullying Joe Manchin[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/06/16/the-folly-of-bullying-joe-manchin-493268?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f0ed-dd93-ad7f-f8edad790000&nlid=630318]Playbook[/link]: Schumer needs Manchin to pass Bidens agenda, and theres a lot of eye-rolling from senior Democrats across Washington about the way the left has attacked the senator. Were told he privately scoffs at the notion that progressive activists understand West Virginia politics better than he does.
At best the in-your-face tactics might simply strengthen Manchins position back home. At worst it could eventually push him to switch parties, something theres increasing chatter about among top Dems. Manchin did not hit 50% in his last reelection, and Trump won the state by almost 40 points. Politics is nationalized now, and there are few remaining states that vote for different parties for the Senate and presidency, making Manchin an extreme outlier.
Democrats whose memory of politics stretches beyond the rise of Trump have been reminding us that in 2001, Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT), who was relentlessly attacked by conservatives, left the Republican Party and threw the 50-50 Republican-controlled Senate to the Democrats. -
[b]Ranked-Choice Gives Democrats a Shot In Alaska[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/16/how-democrats-could-win-alaskas-senate-seat-thanks-ranked-choice-voting/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_opinions]Henry Olson[/link]: Alaska has eliminated party primaries entirely. Instead, all candidates from all parties will appear together on one primary ballot, and the top four candidates regardless of party advance to the general election.
This system opens the way for 2020 candidate Al Gross, or another strong Democrat, to win even if Tshibaka gets a plurality on the first count. Both the 2016 election results and polling show that Murkowskis support overlaps with voters who would normally vote Democratic.-
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/18/us/politics/trump-kelly-tshibaka-murkowski.html]Trump endorses Kelly Tshibaka, Murkowskis challenger in Alaskas Senate race.[/link]
-
-
[link=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/06/19/iowa-poll-chuck-grassley-us-senate-majority-iowans-say-time-replace-elections-2022/7720669002/?csp=chromepush]https://www.desmoinesregi…669002/?csp=chromepush[/link]
[b]
Ann Selzer: U[/b][b].S. Sen. Chuck Grassley previously conveyed a certain invincibility. Well, it appears he is now vincible.[/b]
Fewer than a third of Iowas likely voters say they would vote to reelect Republican Chuck Grassley if the U.S. Senate elections were held today, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
Grassley has not yet said whether he will seek an eighth term in 2022. If he does, political analysts expect his near-universal name recognition and deep ties to the state would still make him the early favorite to win. But the new Iowa Poll appears to show an underlying feeling among Republicans and Democrats alike that hes served long enough.
…Given that were talking about Chuck Grassley and the ratings he used to garner, that is a wow, Selzer said of the results.
[/QUOTE]
Poll also has Biden at 51% approval in Iowa … so that’s some interesting news too.
-
[link=https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017a-53b6-d92f-a1fe-d3f62f8b0000]Bendixen & Amandi International
[/link]Some interesting Arizona state level polling
Both Kelly and Sinema really strong approval.
Arizona voters like the filibuster and want to keep it.
Same poll also looks at Biden v Trump 2024 with Biden +7. (But with lots of voters saying he shouldn’t have a second term)
good stuff on the audit (only Republicans like it)
-
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/17/us/politics/midterm-elections.html]2022 Midterm Elections: Democrats See Early Edge in Senate Map[/link]
[size=”0″] [/size]
Six months into the Biden administration, Senate Democrats are expressing a cautious optimism that the party can keep control of the chamber in the 2022 midterm elections, enjoying large fund-raising hauls in marquee races as they plot to exploit Republican retirements in key battlegrounds and a divisive series of unsettled G.O.P. primaries.
Four Senate Democratic incumbents are up for re-election in swing states next year making them prime targets for Republican gains. But in none of those four states New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia has a dominant Republican candidate emerged to consolidate support from the partys divergent wings.
-
If they cant shed Manchin or Cinema they need to pick up some more seats.
-
I think D+1 would be a pretty darned good result in the Senate.
Even if Democrats have a good Senate mid-term it’s just going to be closely divided.-
Mandela Barnes, Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor since 2018, announces his campaign for US Senate:
[link=https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1417470806372782088]https://twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1417470806372782088[/link]
[image]https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/images/smilies/thumbsup.gif[/image]________________
[h1][b]Ron Johnson Says He May Not Be the Best Candidate[/b][/h1]
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) [link=https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/us-sen-ron-johnson-i-may-not-be-the-best-candidate-for-2022/article_b2283e3f-68e6-5b21-b648-c9da4a597d4a.html]told the Wisconsin State Journal[/link]: I want to make sure that this U.S. Senate seat is retained in Republican hands. You see what the medias doing to me. I may not be the best candidate. I wouldnt run if I dont think I could win, if I dont think I was the best person to be able to win.
He also added: I feel really bad that Ive been here now probably 11 years and weve doubled the debt.
-
What the media is doing to me. If you want good coverage do good things.
-
-
-
-
-
[b]Republicans Raise Concerns About Hershel Walker[/b][/h1]
Senate Republicans are raising concerns about Hershel Walkers past in a state widely viewed as their best pickup opportunity next year, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/30/herschel-walker-gop-senate-run-501696]Politico[/link] reports.
Said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): Some of its pretty bad, obviously: physical abuse and pulling a gun on his wife, if thats true.
Walkers potential candidacy offers another test case for the former presidents influence over the GOP. -
[link=https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/georgia-still-closely-divided-walker-top-possible-gop-senate-candidate/]Public Policy Polling[/link]
PPPs new Georgia poll finds that the state continues to be very closely divided, and that Herschel Walker seemingly starts out as the strongest potential Republican candidate for the Senate next year.
Herschel Walker looks like the strongest of the most discussed Republican candidates with the party base. He has a 72/7 favorability rating with GOP voters. By contrast Kelly Loeffler has much higher negatives, coming in at 56/21, and Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black is largely unknown with 67% of Republicans saying they dont know enough about him to have an opinion either way.
Walker is also the strongest of the Republican hopefuls with the overall electorate. Among all voters he has a +13 favorability rating (41/28) compared to -19 for Loeffler (28/47). Black comes in even at 15/15. By comparison, Warnocks approval stands at 43/42.
The Senate race next year is likely to once again be a tossup. Walker comes the closest to Warnock, trailing by 2 points at 48-46. Loefflers deficit is 47-44 and Blacks is 46-38.[/QUOTE]
-
[b]Floridas Senate Race Is Within MoE[/b][/h1]
A new poll from [link=https://floridapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Poll-of-Rubio-vs.-Demings.pdf]St. Pete Polls[/link] gives Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) a lead of 48% to 46% over Rep. Val Demings (D) for his Senate seat. -
[b]Herschel Walker Is Runaway Favorite for GA GOP Senate Nomination[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017b-5bd2-da46-a3fb-fbd261900000]Fabrizio Lee poll[/link] on behalf of Donald Trumps Save America PAC finds former NFL running back Herschel Walker (R) taking 54% of the vote in a GOP primary for Senate.
No other GOP candidate polls above 5%.-
Herschel Walker officially files to run for US Senate in Georgia against Rafael Warnock.
-
-
[link=https://www.vcreek.com/wp-content/uploads/Nevada_Memo_USSenate_Aug_2021-1.pdf]https://www.vcreek.com/wp…SSenate_Aug_2021-1.pdf[/link]
Republican polling firm shows Lexalt +10 in Nevada against Cortez Mastro
-
[b]Trump Acolytes Poised to Push Out Senate Dealmakers[/b][/h1]
If Senate Republicans seem conservative now, just wait until next year. The 2022 midterms could usher in a wave of full-spectrum MAGA supporters who would turn the GOP conference an even deeper shade of red and make the Senate a lot more like the fractious House, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/trump-disciples-mitch-mcconnell-senate-republican-507887]Politico[/link] reports.
In the five states where Republican senators are retiring, the primary election fields to succeed them are crowded with Donald Trump supporters who have made loyalty to the former president a cornerstone of their campaigns.
