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Control of Senate 2022
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file:///C:/Users/peter/Downloads/Dcorps-National-Phone-Poll-Deck_031021_Final.pdf
file:///C:/Users/peter/Downloads/Dcorps-National-Phone-Poll-Memo_03102021_Final.pdfDemocrats have 4-point lead in the generic congressional and larger in the blue wall states (+7) and 2022 Senate and Governors battleground (+11).
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[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/543126-top-georgia-republican-says-he-wont-run-for-senate]Top Georgia Republican says he won’t run for Senate[/link]
The HillGeorgia’s Republican lieutenant governor announced on Sunday that he will not challenge Sen. [link=https://thehill.com/people/raphael-warnock]Raphael Warnock[/link] (D-Ga.) for one of the state’s Senate seats next year.
Lt. Gov. [link=https://thehill.com/person/geoff-duncan]Geoff Duncan[/link] (R) told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he would not seek to recapture the seat for the GOP while also distancing himself from the so called “Trump wing” of the GOP.
“[link=https://thehill.com/people/donald-trump]Donald Trump[/link]’s divisive tone and strategy in unwinnable in forward-looking elections. We need real leadership,” he added.
Duncan added that a number of Republican-supported bills in the Georgia legislature that would end no-excuse absentee ballot voting and limit early voting were “solutions in search of a problem.” Republicans have made repeated unproven claims about mail-in voting being rife with fraud.
“Republicans dont need election reform to win, we need leadership,” Duncan said, adding: “I’m one of the Republicans that want more people to vote. I think our ideas help people.”[/QUOTE]
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[img]https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/2022_03_11_Senate_Ratings_600.png[/img]
[h3][b][i]Crystal Ball[/i] 2022 Senate ratings[/b][/h3]
[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2022-senate/]https://centerforpolitics…ystalball/2022-senate/[/link]
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[link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1skbdNwZQUMSjSUoZChPgAlrO9ZG5S4xp/view]Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage
[b]Georgia Senate [/b]
[/link]Herschel Walker polls most strongly as potential GOP candidate against WarnockWarnock +5 v Loeffler
Warnock +1 v Collins
Walker +1 v Warnock( as an internal barometer, Biden approval in the same poll is 41% with 55 disapprove )
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[h1]Eric Greitens wants a comeback in Missouri. It could scramble the GOP’s Senate map[/h1]
[link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/eric-greitens-wants-comeback-missouri-it-could-scramble-gop-s-n1261805]First Read[/link]: Greitens Senate candidacy is risky business for a Republican Party thats seeking to win back the Senate with a challenging map and so far five announced Senate GOP retirements.
If hes the nominee, Republicans will have decide whether to embrace someone with this kind of record.
We remember when Roy Moore lost a Senate seat in Alabama (a state Trump won by 25 points in 2020), and when Kris Kobach lost the gubernatorial race in Kansas (a state Trump won by 15 points). Candidates matter.
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[link=https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1374699205479034882]https://twitter.com/dabbs…us/1374699205479034882[/link]
Im afraid youd be Todd Akin 2.0. Im afraid Todd Akin got killed over legitimate rape and, in this Missouri report, you were accused by a witness of half-rape.
Hugh Hewitt, to former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) on his running for U.S. Senate.
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[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/545964-fetterman-raises-39-million-in-first-quarter-in-pennsylvania-senate-race]Fetterman raises $3.9 million in first quarter in Pennsylvania Senate race[/link]
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[b]Senate Battleground Is Smallest In Decades[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.rollcall.com/2021/04/01/senate-2022-few-opportunities-as-parties-battle-for-control/]Nathan Gonzales[/link]: Its a good thing Republicans hoping to take control of the Senate next year dont need to pick up more than one seat, because theres a dearth of takeover options. Indeed, the Senate battleground at this point in the cycle has been smaller only once in the past 22 years.
At the outset of the 2022 midterm elections, eight states are competitive, with each party holding four seats that look initially vulnerable. Democrats are on defense in Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire and Nevada, while Republicans are defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida.
Just a few months into the cycle, five Republican senators have announced that they will not seek reelection, but those decisions havent altered the color or the shape of the initial Senate battleground.-
Qulaity candidate …
[h1][link=https://www.rawstory.com/kelly-tshibaka-alaska/]Trump-loving GOP candidate says God thinks she’s ‘cute’: ‘I’ve got this high-powered brain that never stops and drives me crazy'[/link][/h1] [i]Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has picked up a primary [link=https://www.rawstory.com/lisa-murkowski-2022/]challenger[/link] from a right-wing Christian who [link=https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2021/04/01/heres-alaska-newest-gop-senate-candidate-kelly-tshibaka-speaking-in-tongues/]speaks[/link][/i][i] in tongues to help cope with her “high-powered brain.”Kelly Tshibaka, the state commissioner of administration, launched her GOP primary challenge with the backing of some key allies of former president Donald Trump, whose election fraud claims she backed, after spending years serving in the federal government and running a Pentecostal church in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., reported The Alaska Landmine.
“That’s when I realized God loves it when I try to talk in my spirit language,” Tshibaka told her congregation at Mount Vernon Foursquare Church. “He thinks it’s so cute that the only person in the world who can understand me is Him, and it gave me the freedom to just start to just start sounding like an 18-month-old, because in my spirit, I probably was just 18 months old, and then what happened is, over time, I’d start to notice sentences or phrases, or, if you listen to it now, if you were to record it, you could tell there’s a syntax and there’s grammar, and I can tell with my brain that it’s a real language.”[/i]
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Change Research Poll: Johnson highly vulnerable in Wisconsin
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ex0ibltXAAAhywC?format=jpg&name=large[/img]
GOP Sen. Ron Johnson trailis potential Democratic opponent Tom Nelson by 4 points, 44% to 48%. Johnson’s favorability is underwater by 13 points.
[link=https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1377295346196430852]https://twitter.com/Andre…us/1377295346196430852[/link]
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Kelly fits the GOP. Pasty, white, pearl wearing, and a forehead you could show a movie on.
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[h1][b]Pennsylvania Senate Race Runs Through Mar-a-Lago[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/15/pennsylvania-senate-race-trump-481723]Politico[/link]: The likely GOP candidates in Pennsylvanias open Senate race come in three familiar flavors: anti-Trump, Trumpy and Trumpiest.
Though President Donald Trump lost Pennsylvania in 2020 and will have been out of office for nearly two years by the time voters cast their ballots in the Senate election, the Republican primary here is already revolving around him creating a potential dilemma for the GOP in one of the nations most important races next year.
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[link=https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/06/democrats-see-ron-johnsons-abortion-record-as-their-path-to-victory]Women Are Fed Up: Democrats See Ron Johnsons Abortion Record as Their Path to Victory
[/link]Republican two-term senator Ron Johnson has said people who dont like their states abortion law can move and has supported federal restrictions on abortions. He is really a true believer when it comes to the oppression of women, says one Democratic strategist, explaining why Johnson is a perfect test case for Democrats message on womens rights.
Senator [b]Ron Johnson[/b]s political shenanigans have ranged from the absurd (like when he said it may be true that COVID vaccines cause AIDS only to later [link=https://www.wpr.org/us-sen-ron-johnson-says-covid-19-conference-call-comments-taken-out-context]deny ever believing that[/link]) to the potentially illegal (coordinating an effort to serve up fake [b]Donald Trump[/b]supporting electors to Vice President [b]Mike Pence[/b], allegedly in an effort to overturn [b]Joe Biden[/b]s victory in 2020). Democrats are amplifying these issues, but the strategy to defeat the incumbent Wisconsin senator also has another clear target: his record on women. The Supreme Court decision overruling the landmark [i]Roe v. Wade[/i] Fridayand Wisconsins 173-year-old state law banning abortions now in effecthas the potential to make this strategy more politically potent than ever, making Johnson a clear test case in Democrats promise to make womens rights a winning issue at the ballot box.
Johnson is an easy target in that respect. The two-term senator said he didnt view the repeal of [i]Roe v. Wade[/i] as a huge threat to womens health and that things would be fine. He said anyone who does not like Wisconsins abortion laws can move, has advocated for a federal abortion ban [link=https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/18/sen-ron-johnson-opposes-alabama-law-but-regrets-roe-ruling/3721547002/]after 20 weeks[/link]despite arguing that the matter was a states issueand supported a Mississippi law to ban abortions after 15 weeks. The Wisconsin Democratic Party regularly blasts out fact sheets highlighting Johnsons work to strip reproductive rights. The states Democratic candidates for Senate have all targeted Johnsons record on women and reproductive rights across various mediums, [link=https://sarahforwisconsin.com/%F0%9F%9A%A8new-tv-ad-alert-%F0%9F%9A%A8sarah-godlewski-launches-new-tv-ad-blasting-ron-johnson-as-supreme-court-is-poised-to-overturn-roe-v-wade/]including paid campaign TV ads[/link] (Godlewski cut an ad outside the Supreme Court in Washington), [link=https://twitter.com/alexlasrywi/status/1527714177451757568?s=21&t=p11nzufQmkNaunCDEzC9EA]social media posts[/link], and [link=https://www.wispolitics.com/2022/barnes-campaign-statement-on-the-vote-to-pass-the-womens-health-protection-act/]official statements[/link].
Its a strategy seemingly based on lessons learned from the last three election cycles. In 2018 Democrats energized their base to deliver [b]Tony Evers[/b] the governorship, despite Trump winning the state two years prior; in 2020, Biden managed to flip the state from red to blue by siphoning off key votes [link=https://www.brookings.edu/research/bidens-victory-came-from-the-suburbs/]in Milwaukee suburbs[/link]Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties notable among themand [link=https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/analysis/2020/11/20/some-milwaukee-suburbs-getting-redder-others-shift-purple/6343721002/]chipping away[/link] at historically landslide margins in traditional Republican strongholds like the Mequon, Elm Grove, and Brookfield suburbs. [b]Alex Lasry,[/b] a Milwaukee Bucks executive running in the Democratic Senate primary, stressed in a phone call that to win the state, Democrats need to replicate the victories of [b]Barack Obama,[/b] Senator [b]Tammy Baldwin,[/b] Evers, and [b]Joe Biden[/b] by paying attention to places that Democrats neglect and Republicans take for granted.[/QUOTE]
Especially now, there is too much on the line
—Paid Family Leave
—Affordable Healthcare
—A Woman's Right to ChooseWith proven results I will kick Ron Johnson out and finally give Wisconsinites two Senators fighting for them. pic.twitter.com/cAIJYbUVSr
— Alex Lasry (@AlexLasryWI) May 20, 2022
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[link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fcenterstreetpac.com%2Fpoll-marco-rubio-leads-val-demings-52-to-41-among-likely-voters-in-floridas-senate-race%2F]https://centerstreetpac.com/poll-mar…s-senate-race/[/link]
Rubio +11 in Center Street PAC poll
(we’re finally starting to see “likely voter” models in the polls )
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[link=https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1591615275652087808?s=46&t=mJ2pqhnPxluzR-v_10N1Eg]https://twitter.com/ralst…mJ2pqhnPxluzR-v_10N1Eg[/link]
Cortez-Masto takes a strong lead in NV
Some outlets calling the race
That makes the senate 50D
Dems have control regardless of GA runoff
CLARK!
CCM gains 6K
She is well ahead now.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 13, 2022
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Called & done!
History made in a couple of ways.
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Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball moves Georgias Senate runoff moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on the eve of tomorrows election.
Herschel Walker (R) needs a big Election Day showing to overcome what should be a decent-sized lead for Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the early vote.
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Wasserman calls the Georgia runoff for Warnock.
The Senate will be 51-49 starting in January
Subpoena power, judges, committee control, a bit less reliance on Manchin and Sinema
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Lots of terrible people in Georgia voting for a thoroughly unfit candidate.
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This is a good meme
[link=https://twitter.com/wutangkids/status/1600327180457738240?s=46&t=vQIBLNuGWPXgjIyOwhAcOw]https://twitter.com/wutan…vQIBLNuGWPXgjIyOwhAcOw[/link]
Goodnight pic.twitter.com/bDKVuqL778
— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) December 7, 2022
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Why was this even close ?
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Quote from fw
Why was this even close ?
Closer than it should have been.
At the final it’s going to be about Warnock +3. But the fact that Herschel Walker as the worst candidate in the nation got 48.5% percent of the vote just makes me shake my head.-
Quote from dergon
Quote from fw
Why was this even close ?
Closer than it should have been.
At the final it’s going to be about Warnock +3. But the fact that Herschel Walker as the worst candidate in the nation got 48.5% percent of the vote just makes me shake my head.
The fact that Kemp, Raffensberger and even that fake elector Burt Jones managed to win statewide office illustrates just how uniquely awful Walker was as a candidate.
Still frightening that partisanship is now so strong that people will vote for a fencepost just because he was nominated on the R ticket. But then, folks in Atlanta keep sending Hank Johnson back to DC for no other reason that he happens to have a (D) next to his name on the ticket.
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[b]Guilfoyle to Chair Eric Greitenss Senate Bid[/b][/h1]
Kimberly Guilfoyle, the former Fox News host and Trump campaign adviser, will serve as the national chair of Eric Greitenss Senate campaign, a move that suggests the disgraced former Missouri governor is deepening his ties to former President Trumps orbit, [link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/548965-guilfoyle-named-as-national-chair-of-greitens-senate-campaign-in-missouri]The Hill[/link] reports. -
[h1][b]Mark McCloskey Mulls Senate Bid In Missouri[/b][/h1] [img]https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/11420/production/_114088607_4134eab6-8c47-491b-9969-589fd046adb4.jpg[/img]
Mark McCloskey the gun-toting St. Louis attorney who drew headlines last year for brandishing an assault rifle at Black Lives Matter protesters says hes looking at running for Missouris open Senate seat, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/20/mark-mccloskey-senate-missouri-483924]Politico[/link] reports.
Said McCloskey: I can confirm that its a consideration, yes.
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[h1][b]Manchin Endorses Murkowski for Re-Election[/b][/h1]
Sen. Joe Manchin bucked his own partys political operation in 2020 by endorsing a Republican. Now, hes doing it again, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/manchin-republican-murkowski-reelection-484282]Politico[/link] reports.
The West Virginia senator is backing Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowskis reelection bid in the face of a pointed challenge from former President Donald Trump, whom Murkowski voted to convict of inciting an insurrection.
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[b]Trumps Vendetta Against Doug Ducey[/b][/h1]
Its April 2021, and Donald Trump still cant get past his grudge with Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey for refusing to overturn the 2020 election results in his state, the [link=https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-vendetta-against-arizona-gov-doug-ducey?ref=home]Daily Beast[/link] reports.
Trump has gone so far as to tell some close associates that if Ducey decided to run for Senate and managed to lock up the Republican nomination in 2022, he would consider traveling to Arizona to campaign for Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.
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[b]Peter Thiel Make $10M Bet for Republican Associate in Arizona Senate Race[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/26/peter-thiel-arizona-senate-race-484585]Politico[/link] – Libertarian tech titan Peter Thiel is spending $10 million to boost one of his closest allies in next years Arizona Senate race, a contest crucial to the fight for the majority.
The billionaire is coming out in support of Blake Masters, the chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and the president of the Thiel Foundation, who is expected to soon enter the race.
Thiels support could play a major role in Arizona by helping Masters possibly scare away would-be Republican opponents. The list of potential candidates also includes state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, energy company executive Jim Lamon and Rep. Andy Biggs. The anti-tax Club for Growth has signaled it would likely back Biggs, the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus and an outspoken supporter of former President Donald Trump, should he enter the contest.
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Quote from dergon
[b]Peter Thiel Make $10M Bet for Republican Associate in Arizona Senate Race[/b]
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/26/peter-thiel-arizona-senate-race-484585]Politico[/link] – Libertarian tech titan Peter Thiel is spending $10 million to boost one of his closest allies in next years Arizona Senate race, a contest crucial to the fight for the majority.The billionaire is coming out in support of Blake Masters, the chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and the president of the Thiel Foundation, who is expected to soon enter the race.
Thiels support could play a major role in Arizona by helping Masters possibly scare away would-be Republican opponents. The list of potential candidates also includes state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, energy company executive Jim Lamon and Rep. Andy Biggs. The anti-tax Club for Growth has signaled it would likely back Biggs, the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus and an outspoken supporter of former President Donald Trump, should he enter the contest.
this is why we need campaign finance reform. Essentially this fonzanoon can pump money into whatever race he wants. Stick to your own damn state and stay the fudge out of AZ and OH. He’s also pumping Hillbilly Elegy Bro.
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[link=https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/AZPOP/210503_AZPOP/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20(AZPOP)%20-%20Arizona%20Senate.pdf]OH Predictive Insights[/link]
AZ Senate has Mark Kelly up by high single digits or low double digits over potential GOP challengers
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Quote from dergon
[b]Peter Thiel Make $10M Bet for Republican Associate in Arizona Senate Race[/b]
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/26/peter-thiel-arizona-senate-race-484585]Politico[/link] – Libertarian tech titan Peter Thiel is spending $10 million to boost one of his closest allies in next years Arizona Senate race, a contest crucial to the fight for the majority.The billionaire is coming out in support of Blake Masters, the chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and the president of the Thiel Foundation, who is expected to soon enter the race.
Thiels support could play a major role in Arizona by helping Masters possibly scare away would-be Republican opponents. The list of potential candidates also includes state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, energy company executive Jim Lamon and Rep. Andy Biggs. The anti-tax Club for Growth has signaled it would likely back Biggs, the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus and an outspoken supporter of former President Donald Trump, should he enter the contest.
this is why we need campaign finance reform. Essentially this fonzanoon can pump money into whatever race he wants. Stick to your own damn state and stay the fudge out of AZ and OH. He’s also pumping Hillbilly Elegy Bro.
While I don’t disagree with you at all about finance reform, this happens on both sides (Soros, Zuckerberg, Koch, etc.)-
[b]Gun-Waving Lawyer Announces Senate Bid[/b][/h1]
Nearly a year after waving a long gun at protesters who had walked onto the street in front of his Central West End mansion, Mark McCloskey on Tuesday said he is running for U.S. Senate, the [link=https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/st-louis-attorney-famous-for-waving-gun-at-protesters-is-running-for-u-s-senate/article_b6330480-9f0e-5ee0-8c7b-9911cf7e5505.html]St. Louis Post-Dispatch[/link] reports.-
2022 will be a fever pitch. Regionalism begins in America, full throttle.
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Quote from dergon
[b]Gun-Waving Lawyer Announces Senate Bid[/b]
Nearly a year after waving a long gun at protesters who had walked onto the street in front of his Central West End mansion, Mark McCloskey on Tuesday said he is running for U.S. Senate, the [link=https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/st-louis-attorney-famous-for-waving-gun-at-protesters-is-running-for-u-s-senate/article_b6330480-9f0e-5ee0-8c7b-9911cf7e5505.html]St. Louis Post-Dispatch[/link] reports.
As crazy as Missouri is, this may just work.
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[link=https://www.scribd.com/document/508616266/DFP-PA-General-Election]Data for Progress*[/link] poll on the Pennsylvania Senate race
Fetterman +10 against Bartos and +8 against Parnell
(poll also looks at Conor Lamb vs likely R opponents and it is within MoE)
Engagement high in both parties with 87% of Ds and 83% of Rs saying the definitely or probably will vote.
