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South China Sea
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[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/05/us-and-china-are-in-a-cold-peace/]https://www.washingtonpos…a-are-in-a-cold-peace/[/link]
Fareed Zakaria:
[b] [/b]
The United States and China are locked in a ‘Cold Peace'[/h1]Welcome to the strange new world we live in. China and the United States are becoming more adversarial toward one another in every way and yet they are both part of a global economy that is deeply interdependent and has a dynamic of its own. Tensions rise but so does trade. Its not just with the United States. China and Australia have seen growing disputes, attacks and counterattacks. Last year, China [link=https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijing-s-fresh-threat-to-australia-20201118-p56fqs.html]publicly aired[/link] 14 grievances with Australia and warned it not to make China the enemy. And yet, Chinese purchases of Australian goods [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-07-01/supply-chains-latest-australia-posts-record-exports-despite-china-dispute]recently hit[/link] a record high.
China needs U.S. consumers for its economic growth. But conversely, many of the United States largest companies from General Motors to Apple to Nike need the Chinese market. The Walmart effect the availability of low-priced goods of every kind to Americans has been closely [link=https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/23/business/china-tariffs-trump-trade-walmart-retail/index.html]tied to sourcing from China[/link]. Even when you look at something such as the United States expanding green economy, you find the shadow of China behind it. Those [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/business/economy/china-biden-solar-panels.html]solar panels[/link] you see everywhere have become so affordable and thus ubiquitous because many are made in China. And then there is the roughly $1 trillion worth of [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/china-s-holdings-of-u-s-treasuries-hit-highest-since-july-2019]American debt[/link] that China holds.
The United States will need a strategy that mirrors the complexity of this relationship, one in which China is part competitor, part customer, part adversary. Some of this the Biden administration has done very well, bringing Americas allies together in a more united front against China, such as for its human rights abuses. But Biden is also confronting the reality that the United States allies have close economic ties with China. (In Asia, most countries have China as their largest trading partner.) They would like to have both strong trading relations with China and strong geopolitical ties with the United States. Forcing them to choose might create more problems than it solves.…
Can Washington embrace the complexity of this challenge? It is facing an economic powerhouse that, unlike Germany and Japan, is not dependent on the United States for its security. It faces a new great power that is not a democracy and has different values and beliefs, and yet has not occupied and controlled countries as Stalins Russia did during the 1940s (which is what triggered the Cold War).
And this is all happening in a world in which [link=https://www.gtreview.com/news/global/global-trade-above-pre-pandemic-levels-but-fears-grow-of-two-speed-recovery/]international trade[/link] has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Its not a new Cold War but something much more complicated: a Cold Peace.[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/america-alarms-saudi-arabia-by-withdrawing-anti-missile-systems-6hcrbg39f]Times of London[/link]
[b]US begins moving missiles out of Saudi Arabia and into Asia[/b]
The Pentagon has withdrawn advanced anti-missile systems from Saudi Arabia, raising concern in the kingdom about American [link=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-joe-biden-hopes-to-end-americas-middle-east-quagmire-8wvh3k58g]military commitment in the Middle East[/link].
Satellite images of the Prince Sultan air base, 70 miles south-east of Riyadh, show that a section that had housed US batteries since 2019 is empty. The removal coincides with a US decision to relocate weapons to Asia to counter a perceived threat from Beijing.
The images emerged a few days after Saudi Arabia cancelled a visit by [link=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-us-defence-secretary-lloyd-austin-must-overhaul-ageing-missile-defence-system-5b58fhbnj]Lloyd Austin[/link], the US defense secretary, who was on a Gulf tour to thank allies for their support during the evacuation of Afghanistan.
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[h1][b]China Is Accelerating Its Nuclear Buildup[/b][/h1] [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-accelerating-its-nuclear-buildup-over-rising-fears-of-u-s-conflict-11649509201?mod=hp_lead_pos1]Wall Street Journal[/link]
China has accelerated an expansion of its nuclear arsenal because of a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the U.S., shedding new light on a buildup that is raising tension between the two countries.”
The Chinese nuclear effort long predates Russias invasion of Ukraine, but the U.S.s wariness about getting directly involved in the war there has likely reinforced Beijings decision to put greater emphasis on developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent Chinese leaders see a stronger nuclear arsenal as a way to deter the U.S. from getting directly involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan.
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[h1][b]Australia Bets on Lasting American Power in Asia[/b]
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/world/australia/australia-china-submarines.html]New York Times[/link] [/h1] When Scott Morrison became Australias prime minister three years ago, he insisted that the country could maintain close ties with China, its largest trading partner, while working with the United States, its main security ally.
Said Morrison: Australia doesnt have to choose.
On Thursday, Australia effectively chose. Following years of sharply deteriorating relations with Beijing, Australia announced a new defense agreement in which the United States and Britain would help it deploy nuclear-powered submarines, a major advance in Australian military strength.
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[link=https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1440675040744259584]https://twitter.com/kitty…us/1440675040744259584[/link]
I just think its time for some of our dearest friends around the world to prenez un grip about all this and donnez-moi un break. Because this is fundamentally a great step forward for global security.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, [link=https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1440675040744259584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1440675040744259584%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2Flive%2F2021%2Fsep%2F22%2Fus-house-spending-bill-debt-ceiling-senate-joe-biden-us-politics-latest]mocking French outrage[/link] over the U.S.-U.K. nuclear submarine deal with Austrailia.
Boris Johnson, speaking outside the Capitol, says it’s time for the French to “prenez un grip” and “donnez-moi un break” after the spat over a U.K. submarine deal with the U.S. and Australia pic.twitter.com/FpVywohTjK
— Kitty Donaldson (@kitty_donaldson) September 22, 2021
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[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/573756-biden-to-host-quad-leaders-in-sign-of-refocused-asia-policy]Biden to host Quad leaders in sign of refocused Asia policy
[/link]
[link=https://thehill.com/people/joe-biden]President Biden[/link] will host the leaders of Australia, India and Japan at the White House on Friday for the first in-person meeting of the “Quad” alliance as the White House doubles down on its foreign policy efforts to compete with China in the Indo-Pacific.
“At the outset of the admin the president indicated he wanted to take this institution thats an informal gathering of leading democracies in the Indo-Pacific and basically lift it both to the leader level, and ensure we are working together to build better lines of communication and strengthening cooperation and habits of cooperation amongst us,” a senior administration official told reporters on a call previewing Friday’s summit.
The official described the Quad as part of a “larger fabric of engagement” that reflects the Biden administration’s foreign policy in the region. Biden has spoken frequently about the need for democracies to band together as autocracies in China and elsewhere seek greater influence.[/QUOTE]
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I’d be all for spending some of that defense budget $ to have a bigger and superior naval force in the pacific. Not sure if that’s based in Australia or somewhere else.
Do an exercise where we roll a bunch of destroyers from the US and allies right through the middle of south china sea.
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[b]U.S. Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan[/b][/h1]
A U.S. special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines have been secretly operating in Taiwan to train military forces there, part of efforts to shore up the islands defenses as concern regarding potential Chinese aggression mounts, the [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-troops-have-been-deployed-in-taiwan-for-at-least-a-year-11633614043]Wall Street Journal[/link] reports. -
[link=https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb]https://www.ft.com/conten…4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb[/link]
[h1]China tests new space capability with hypersonic missile[/h1] Launch in August of nuclear-capable rocket that circled the globe took US intelligence by surprise
Five people familiar with the test said the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target.
The missile missed its target by about two-dozen miles, according to three people briefed on the intelligence. But two said the test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realised.
The test has raised new questions about why the US often underestimated Chinas military modernisation.[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-22/biden-says-the-u-s-would-defend-taiwan-from-attack-by-china?srnd=premium]Biden Says U.S. Would Defend Taiwan From Attack by China[/link]
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I worry about our capabilities. We have a big military but is it ready to fight.
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[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/milley-likens-china-s-hypersonic-weapon-test-to-sputnik-moment?srnd=premium]Top U.S. General Likens Chinas Hypersonic Weapon Test to Sputnik Moment[/link]
General Mark Milley’s comparison shows the depth of concern about Beijings work on hypersonic arms.
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I think Mattis put it best. It doesn’t change the calculus. If someone launches a nuc we nuc them. Doesn’t matter how fast it travels, we’re all fudged.
We still need to evaluate what they’re doing and make sure we are readied. Like what happens if they try and invade Taiwan.-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
I think Mattis put it best. It doesn’t change the calculus. If someone launches a nuc we nuc them. Doesn’t matter how fast it travels, we’re all fudged.
Russia/Ukraine has me rethinking the calculus. If Putin makes that egregious error, is our or anyone’s best response to return the favor? What’s he going to do? Unleash a vast arsenal at once? Yes, we probably would have no choice there. Does he really believe this would be a winning strategy?
What if he makes a “strategic” nuclear strike?
That outrageous and unthinkable act would give anyone and everyone the authority to demolish Russia in a conventional military campaign. I would hope we would take that path.
Perhaps Putin is trying to win the war with disinformation again?
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does it matter? If he’ll use one, wouldn’t he use them all if any when we attacked them?
IMO we should try and be a world in which no one has them at all. It’s not needed.
Keep in mind this whole raising the threat level thing also comes with the idea of easier to make a mistake.
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[link=https://www.ft.com/content/a127f6de-f7b1-459e-b7ae-c14ed6a9198c]Financial Times
[/link]
[h1][b]Chinese hypersonic weapon fired a missile over South China Sea[/b][/h1]
Chinas hypersonic weapon test in July included a technological advance that enabled it to fire a missile as it approached its target travelling at least five times the speed of sound a capability no country has previously demonstrated.
Pentagon scientists were caught off guard by the advance, which allowed the hypersonic glide vehicle, a manoeuvrable spacecraft that can carry a nuclear warhead, to fire a separate missile mid-flight in the atmosphere over the South China Sea.
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One thing that Ive read about and would concern me. If/when Russia decides theyre going to invade Ukraine. The US either helps the Ukraine or doesnt. If we dont that signals to China they can invade Taiwan.
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[h1][b]China Rattled by Shinzo Abe Calls for Japan to Host Nuclear Weapons[/b][/h1]
China has reacted angrily to calls by Japans influential former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, for Tokyo to consider hosting US nuclear weapons in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine and rising concern over Chinese aggression towards Taiwan, [link=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/china-rattled-by-calls-for-japan-to-host-us-nuclear-weapons]The Guardian[/link] reports.
Abe, who presided over record defense budgets before resigning in 2020, said Japan should cast off taboos surrounding its possession of nuclear weapons following the outbreak of war in Europe.
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Quote from dergon
[h1][b]China Rattled by Shinzo Abe Calls for Japan to Host Nuclear Weapons[/b][/h1]
China has reacted angrily to calls by Japans influential former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, for Tokyo to consider hosting US nuclear weapons in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine and rising concern over Chinese aggression towards Taiwan, [link=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/01/china-rattled-by-calls-for-japan-to-host-us-nuclear-weapons]The Guardian[/link] reports.Abe, who presided over record defense budgets before resigning in 2020, said Japan should cast off taboos surrounding its possession of nuclear weapons following the outbreak of war in Europe.
Feel like step one is that the build a military that can project power again.
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By increasing nuclear capability?
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No. Post WW2 Japan went away from militarization and the US signed a security treaty with them. I look at is as having bigger and more advanced military. We park carrier strike groups there. Itd be good if they had a few of their own.
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Ok. Good.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
No. Post WW2 Japan went away from militarization and the US signed a security treaty with them. I look at is as having bigger and more advanced military. We park carrier strike groups there. Itd be good if they had a few of their own.
The Japan Self Defense Force is actually quite large. But every system they have is hobbled by the requirement of being strictly defensive.
The European allies have nuclear capability. Either native (UK/France) or by the US loaning them warheads. With Putin gone rogue, it makes sense for countries to seek their own nuclear deterrent.
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[b]China Insists Taiwan Is Different Than Ukraine[/b][/h1]
Chinas foreign minister said the Taiwan issue is fundamentally different from the Ukraine situation as it is a purely domestic affair rather than between two countries, the [link=https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3169533/chinas-foreign-minister-may-weigh-ukraine-yearly-briefing?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage]South China Morning Post[/link] reports.-
Xi trying to extract China from Russian mess by claiming a difference without a distinction.
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[link=https://www.axios.com/beijings-ukraine-censorship-35a02a04-91b2-4efb-8a91-a9d111a2a3a0.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=world-chinaukraine]https://www.axios.com/bei…ent=world-chinaukraine[/link]
[h1]Beijing is re-writing the Ukraine narrative[/h1]
The Chinese government is scrubbing the countrys internet of sympathetic or accurate coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and systematically amplifying pro-Putin talking points.
Chinas wide use of its propaganda and censorship muscle helps insulate Beijing from a domestic backlash against its [link=https://www.newsweek.com/china-reiterates-friendship-russia-says-both-will-bring-world-peace-1685505]support[/link] for Putin and leaves its citizens with an airbrushed, false version of events, similar to whats seen in Putins state-controlled Russia.
Chinese media outlets were told to avoid posting “anything unfavorable to Russia or pro-Western” on their social media accounts, and to only use hashtags started by Chinese state media outlets, according to a [link=https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2022/02/minitrue-keep-weibo-posts-on-ukraine-favorable-to-russia-control-comments/]leaked[/link] censorship directive.[/QUOTE]
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[b]China Signals Shift on Ukraine[/b][/h1]
[link=https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/China-signals-shift-on-Ukraine-as-Russia-accused-of-atrocities]Nikkei Asia[/link]: China appears to be shifting its tone on the war in Ukraine, as Beijing counts the costs of defending a Russian ally accused of war crimes and braces for the economic fallout from Western-led sanctions.
On Tuesday, President Xi Jinping told his French and German counterparts that Beijing was ready to work with the international community to prevent the tense situation from escalating, or even running out of control, in his strongest comments yet on the two-week-old invasion.
Hinting at Chinas growing alarm over Russias invasion, Xi also called for maximum restraint to prevent a large-scale humanitarian crisis, as the number of civilian casualties mount, including children.
Meanwhile, [link=https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1501230385157795845?s=20&t=QibOh26AbI4N-2mVV0Kv3Q]CNBC[/link] reports CIA Director Burns says Xi and Chinese leadership are unsettled by blowback from Russias invasion of Ukraine.CIA Director Burns says China’s President Xi and Chinese leadership are “unsettled” by blowback from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Says China did not anticipate Russian difficulties, reputations damages to China and economic consequences of the invasion.
— Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 8, 2022
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No that Russia is becoming worthless, the Chinese probably see the relationship as worthless. Russia is going to default on debt. 1 rubble probably isn’t worth .001 Xi Bucks.
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1. Some reports out saying Lavrov was en route to Beijing last night and the plane turned around and returned to Moscow.
2. Just announced Biden will speak with Xi on Friday -
[link=https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/five-individuals-charged-variously-stalking-harassing-and-spying-us-residents-behalf-prc-0]https://www.justice.gov/o…residents-behalf-prc-0[/link]
DOJ Charges Five Individuals with Stalking, Harassing and Spying on U.S. Residents on Behalf of the PRC Secret Police[/h1] [b][i]Defendants Participated in Transnational Repression Schemes to Silence Critics of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) Residing in the United States and Abroad Including by [/i][/b][b][i]Attempting to Disrupt the Campaign of a U.S. Military Veteran and Candidate for U.S. Congress in Brooklyn Who Expressed Views Critical of the PRC and by Scheming to Destroy a PRC Dissidents Artwork Criticizing the PRC Government[/i][/b] -
[h1][b]Where China Stands on Ukraine[/b][/h1]
[link=https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-biden-business-jen-psaki-83c387554e08610bd973051dbd28fcf9]Associated Press[/link]: Beijings leadership would like to be supportive of Russia but also recognizes how badly the Russian military action is going as an overmatched Ukrainian military has put up stiff resistance, according to a Western official familiar with current intelligence assessments.
The official, who was not authorized to comment and spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Beijing is weighing the the potential reputational blowback of being associated with the Russian camp. The Chinese response to Russias request for help is in the process of being formulated, the official added.
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/biden-team-hardens-view-of-china-tilting-toward-putin-on-ukraine?srnd=premium&sref=nXmOg68r]Bloomberg[/link]: Chinas muted response to Russias invasion of Ukraine has hardened views within the Biden administration that President Xi Jinping may be moving closer to supporting Moscow as the conflict continues.
