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DOW 17000… So close!!!
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yeah Disney got cheaper by 22 %
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“It’s just speculators not speculating on what they think is going to happen but what they think other speculators think is going to happen. It’s not a time to panic.
Do your best to keep your eye off the headlines, do your best to avoid any stock tips and certainly do your best not to do anything extreme. ”[url=http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/28/jack-bogle-how-to-handle-the-markets-wild-ride.html] ~ Jack Bogle[/url]
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10million+ new iPhone orders in 1 weekend. AT $600 per device = mega bucks $6,000,000,000
[link=http://www.geekwire.com/2015/apple-is-on-pace-to-sell-10m-iphones-on-opening-weekend-beating-last-years-record/?google_editors_picks=true]http://www.geekwire.com/2…gle_editors_picks=true[/link]-
Apple’s stock price is sure to fall now based on projected record sales & profits.
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We need to update this thread title to “[b]16,000[/b], So close!”.
(yesterday’s close = 15,972)
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Stocks hit two year low is the headline. It really is that close $16001.89
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Hold onto your hats … big miss on jobs today.
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Or the cup is half full. Employers add over 140,000 jobs. I like to make a birdie when I golf, but I’m OK with a par too.
Yesterdays gain being erased.
Interesting there’s one banker that on the hook and it’s someone who worked for Angelo Mozilo, not Angelo himself.
[link=http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-only-banker-sued-for-the-housing-crisis-prepares-her-appeal/ar-AAf1ZAh?li=AA4Zjn]http://www.msn.com/en-us/…l/ar-AAf1ZAh?li=AA4Zjn[/link]-
Back to “17,000, so close” ……. 16, 9000+ yesterday.
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Im expecting a little more volatility in October
Gotta love those dips as buying opportunities-
2015 seems like it’s going to go down as a roller coaster year. Sentiment seems to change directions like the wind. It’s also coming into seasonal hiring season/shopping season. We’re not too far off from Black Friday and Cyber Monday, or whatever crazy shopping days the retailers come up with this year.
Edit: Is Volkswagen a good buy? When everyone is running usually there’s opportunity. Or wait till they put a price tag on the oops.-
Well. S&P 500 back into the black for the year as of now.
China cutting rates and looking to prop up with more fiscal policy and lots of earnings beats from tech.
If that’s the whole correction then that’s just fine for me 🙂
Quote from DICOM_Dan
Edit: Is Volkswagen a good buy? When everyone is running usually there’s opportunity. Or wait till they put a price tag on the oops.
I don’t know. This could possibly drive VW into bankruptcy or if not keep its value markedly depressed for many years. Not only US regulators but now countires all over europe getting in on it too. They have no great fix and could be forced into a massively expensive buyback program.
I wouldn’t be willing to let my money go in on a “it’s just a dip during the scandal” thinking on this one.
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I agree with dergon. I still don’t know how all those vw cars in the US are going to pass emissions test going forward. It’s not like the government will exempt them from emission waivers. How would you even know if the results were ok because of the software hack or real? You would have to get the cars tested at special places….
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Unless someone proves me wrong, the car’s program (& possible hardware) can be fixed to reduce the NO2 to legal levels, it’s just that the car won’t be as much fun to drive as it will respond less fast & “peppy.” It will then be for the VW owners to respond whether this new performance is acceptable. Or not. VW engineers are probably now trying to minimize that performance gap to fix the issue.
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I believe Cummins makes diesel exhaust systems. I’m wondering what companies might benefit if they have to buy say 11 million particulate filter exhaust systems. Maybe even the companies that make the diesel fluid.
I’ve actually wanted a diesel for towing but couldn’t justify the extra 4K. seems like an overpriced option. Waiting to see if this kills used diesel market.
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Far as I know, pollution is not particulate, just NO2.
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Slow response from server creates duplicates.
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The part is called a diesel particulate filter. Exhaust comes in, sprayed with stuff, exhaust comes out cleaner
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But that’s not VW’s issue.
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In terms of buying opportunity. If VW needs to buy 11 million filters some companies that manufacture said exhaust systems stand to benefit.
I suspect models like the chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon will also do well. Those use the diesel scrubbing systems also.
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So I find myself hoping the fed raises rates and the market responds positively.
Seems so unlikely….-
it has to at some point. I don’t see how raising interest from 0 to say .5 is going to cause major head aches for the market. It was prices in when the market dropped back to 17000
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raised to .25%. The earth is still spinning. We must be all good.
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Big drop in 2016
Get out of the market. Buy back when it drops, which will be big.
Another prediction that people will ignore, to their peril.-
Unless you have inside information not widely available I’d say your prediction ain’t worth a whole lot.
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like the man says, don’t try and time the market.
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It is my feeling that there is going to be a big drop. I’m not in, so I’m not really trying to “time” it rather than just stay out for the time being.
It’ll be fairly obvious that history is repeating itself when it happens next year. About 8 year time frame from last big bubble, the economy has been propped up by cheap money for a long long time, workers and the middle class haven’t seen any real gains, and all the purchasing is done on consumer debt, therefore.
I’m just saying.-
Quote from Cigar
It is my feeling that there is going to be a big drop. I’m not in, so I’m not really trying to “time” it rather than just stay out for the time being.
It’ll be fairly obvious that history is repeating itself when it happens next year. About 8 year time frame from last big bubble, the economy has been propped up by cheap money for a long long time, workers and the middle class haven’t seen any real gains, and all the purchasing is done on consumer debt, therefore.
I’m just saying.
I’ll let Barr Ritholtz respond to you (via his response to Trump’s “bubble” call)
[url=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-21/trump-s-bubble-predictions-are-for-losers]
Trump’s Bubble Predictions Are for Losers[/url][/h1]We now are at the end of the sixth year of incorrect bubble calls. Just as every general fights the [i]last[/i] war, every disappointed investor, armchair strategist and fallen analyst who missed the most obvious bubble in history has now become an expert in spotting them.
Only they are not.
Trump, the outsider finding political success by disproving the skeptics has become Trump, the billionaire, making an economic forecast. “We could be on a bubble and that bubble could crash and it’s not going to be a pretty picture,” [link=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-11/beware-peak-trump-]said Trump[/link]. The market has gone down big league the last couple of weeks. We could be in a big fat bubble and if that bubble crashes, it’s a problem.”
So how is Trump as a forecaster? {Bad}
In 2013, he told Americans to prepare for financial ruin. Right now, frankly, the country isnt doing well, [link=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205842.0]Trump added[/link], Recession may be a nice word. The S&P 500 rose 30 that year.
Also is in 2013, Trump warned of the [link=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wj_mVC9RYg]fall of the dollar[/link]. The U.S. currency has since risen to the highest in almost 13 years.
Earlier, in 2011, Trump predicted that unemployment, then at about 9 percent, would rise once Obamacare went into effect. It has since fallen to 5 percent.
In a sense, these aren’t really predictions; they’re the stump speeches of a political candidate who is giving the crowd what it wants.
Perhaps Trump will be proven right in saying You heard it here first. So many people have made so many bubble predictions that there is bound to be a chance that some of them will be correct. But here’s what’s more likely: When a bubble occurs and pops — and that will happen someday — the people listening to Trump will be among the most surprised that it didn’t happen the way he said it would.-
Its really not a prediction to call a big drop
You look back year in and out there usually are 1-3 15% point swings
Now if you are calling a bubble where the market drops 40-50% OK that’s a prediction…………………….but a big drop is not-
Quote from kpack123
Its really not a prediction to call a big drop
You look back year in and out there usually are 1-3 15% point swings
Now if you are calling a bubble where the market drops 40-50% OK that’s a prediction…………………….but a big drop is not
I’m saying a move back to at least the 12000 range, at least. So there you go. And I’m localizing it to around June 2016-March 2017
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Quote from yesterdaysnews
Unless you have inside information not widely available I’d say your prediction ain’t worth a whole lot.
You are free to ignore it, of course.
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Feelings don’t equate to much. When betting in sports or the stock market. I’d like to bet the Browns this week because I feel like they’ll pull out a W.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Feelings don’t equate to much. When betting in sports or the stock market. I’d like to bet the Browns this week because I feel like they’ll pull out a W.
I agree, but I am basing it on fundamentals and timing/history, just like my football wagers — so it’s not the feeling you are suggesting.
I called it a feeling because of course I can’t predict the very day. So it’s a no-win with you guys. How close to the prediction drop do you need to be in order to take credit? That’s where the rubber hits the road. I am putting my money where my mouth is though, because I am OUT of the market. If it continues to go up for years, I will have lost on opportunity cost.
But if it falls and I am there after to pick up the pieces, I gain big time. Why is this so hard to understand? Like Schiff said, and he deals with this detraction all the time — “better to be early than be late.”
You can’t argue with that.
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Quote from Cigar (on December 17, 2015)
Big drop in 2016
Get out of the market. Buy back when it drops, which will be big.
Another prediction that people will ignore, to their peril.
Just in case some guy who likes to reference Cigar’s past predictions comes by …
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[url=http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/11/us-markets.html]S&P 500 closes at all time hihg[/url]
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I’m thinking is the support there to keep driving the markets up. Like DJIA 19000? It’s kind of been a rollercoaster. The beginning of the year had a more pronounced dip, then we had the Brexit dip.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
I’m thinking is the support there to keep driving the markets up. Like DJIA 19000? It’s kind of been a rollercoaster. The beginning of the year had a more pronounced dip, then we had the Brexit dip.
18347.67
We need a “Dow 19,000 so close” thread.
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Quote from dergon
Quote from Cigar (on December 17, 2015)
Big drop in 2016
Get out of the market. Buy back when it drops, which will be big.
Another prediction that people will ignore, to their peril.
Just in case some guy who likes to reference Cigar’s past predictions comes by …
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[link=http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/11/us-markets.html]S&P 500 closes at all time hihg[/link]
I’ll own my prediction, which has been states many times (if you ever accurately characterized them) as late 2016 to Q2 2017.
I will come on the board and say I was wrong if by the end of March 2017 nothing happens.
No what you guys won’t do? Admit you are wrong about anything, or that I’m right. Why is that?
I know. People love to hammer you when you are saying the rare thing, because they are all wrong and you’re the only one right. When you make an incorrect pick, they all hammer you
You may think of yourself as objective, but you aren’t. I’ve already beat so many of the “experts” including you guys on the political scene, it’s comical.
When Trump wins, my unfathomable run will be complete.-
First you need to be right about something. Like a moving target. Surely the market will collapse by 2017.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
First you need to be right about something. Like a moving target. Surely the market will collapse by 2017.
Almost a year about Trump, still right about him, going to be right about him
You guys all wrong about him for those same 11-12 months.
No one has made any prediction even close to as monstrous as mine.
It’s time to be fair or just shut up because you’ve lost credibility.-
Somethings matter in life and something don’t
Politics affects my life very little.
But Finances affect every aspect of my life
Id rather be right about making money than be right about politics
You can have your bragging rights on a political message board followed by 7 people…………………….I Just upped my Stops 7% in my non taxable accounts securing at least another 900K in gains
Dumb arse
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Fat lady didn’t sing yet, cigar.
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Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from DICOM_Dan
First you need to be right about something. Like a moving target. Surely the market will collapse by 2017.
Almost a year about Trump, still right about him, going to be right about him
You guys all wrong about him for those same 11-12 months.
No one has made any prediction even close to as monstrous as mine.
It’s time to be fair or just shut up because you’ve lost credibility.
Credibility says guy who got the stanky boot from the admin. You’re replying about Trump to your prognostication of market collapse. Relevance. Last I saw the pollsters were putting HRC at close to an 80% chance of winning. We’ll have to wait and see on the Trumpster.
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23,000 knocking on the door.
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23,000 knocking on the door.
Big drop in 2016
Get out of the market. Buy back when it drops, which will be big.
Another prediction that people will ignore, to their peril.
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Cigar and always incarnations I just bring to their God for the downfall of America.
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Cigar and his incarnations always praying to their God for the downfall and burning of America.
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Quote from Frumious
Cigar and his incarnations always praying to their God for the downfall and burning of America.
You really do say some of the most asinine stuff on here.
I’m so glad Trump got elected. It gave you a chance to humble yourself, but you’re still unrepentant. That’s why your chaos and madness continues.-
When it comes to anything about financial, money or making money you are never close to being right…… In fact you are almost a contrarian indicator all by yourself…….. just do the opposite of what you predict
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Quote from kpack123
When it comes to anything about financial, money or making money you are never close to being right…… In fact you are almost a contrarian indicator all by yourself…….. just do the opposite of what you predict
Yet you say the same thing that I did, just not with any real prediction. Because I have such a keen eye on the big picture, I’m doing quite fine financially, kpack. I’m sure you’ve done well over a long time — who couldn’t with your salary and indexes over the golden years?
You just don’t like me for seeing the big picture, which you are unable to do. Just admit it.-
I could tell you all about bitcoin and chainblock investments, you’d try to find some way to act like big gains there are meaningless. You guys are a stitch. Yeah, I don’t know anything … because you are in your own delusional world of hate.
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I actually dont dislike you.
I definitely do not agree with you believing that you see the big picture.
Your a doomsdayer…….. an end of the world type….. a chronic pessimist thats hates most everything and wants to blow up everything and start over even though you have no clue how you would begin or how difficult and devastating and actually unrealistic that would be
Your gold 3500$ thing was essentially …..YOU
You actually in your big picture view of the world actually believed that and swore that it was some kind of a no brainer and everyone who disagreed with you was somehow not smart or just incapable of seeing the obvious
Honestly….that was funny as sheet because you were doing that just when most people with an ounce of brains saw the gold bubble waiting to bust and were getting out
Thats what I found so amusing to the point I even told that almost to the day that you made that ridiculous claim
I think you base everything on your own narrow view of the world and when you let your political beliefs influence your financial decisions you are setting yourself for failure….
Like gold 3500$Me personally When it comes to financial issue I really throw political beliefs out the window, I dont gamble and I try to make educated investments with some acceptable risks
Personal Bally I dont like trump but Im pretty darn happy about the market so far under him…..and if his tax package goes through then there probably wont be much of a pullback unless the idiot starts the war.
But… back to the point…. I dont dislike you …I find you amusing but also a good bit delusional and definitely a doom and gloom conspiracy type
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Quote from kpack123
I actually dont dislike you.
I definitely do not agree with you believing that you see the big picture.
Your a doomsdayer…….. an end of the world type….. a chronic pessimist thats hates most everything and wants to blow up everything and start over even though you have no clue how you would begin or how difficult and devastating and actually unrealistic that would be
Your gold 3500$ thing was essentially …..YOU
You actually in your big picture view of the world actually believed that and swore that it was some kind of a no brainer and everyone who disagreed with you was somehow not smart or just incapable of seeing the obvious
Honestly….that was funny as sheet because you were doing that just when most people with an ounce of brains saw the gold bubble waiting to bust and were getting out
Thats what I found so amusing to the point I even told that almost to the day that you made that ridiculous claim
I think you base everything on your own narrow view of the world and when you let your political beliefs influence your financial decisions you are setting yourself for failure….
Like gold 3500$Me personally When it comes to financial issue I really throw political beliefs out the window, I dont gamble and I try to make educated investments with some acceptable risks
Personal Bally I dont like trump but Im pretty darn happy about the market so far under him…..and if his tax package goes through then there probably wont be much of a pullback unless the idiot starts the war.
But… back to the point…. I dont dislike you …I find you amusing but also a good bit delusional and definitely a doom and gloom conspiracy type
Finally an interesting post by you, thanks
You overstate doom and gloom, though the Trump thing is probably doom and gloom for you, ironic
I don’t doubt you have done well in the market and are well situated, having grown up in the golden years it afforded you that, you don’t need to take any risks at this point. So be honest.
But you weren’t totally honest in that the market is overbought and you know it, you predicted very similar things as I did just half a year ago. Yet you try to make some maneuver on the board to delegitimize my predictions which were historic, given we see the markets in a similar way, it was ironic
I’m still waiting for the time to invest, but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if it went well over 30k-
Go back and look what I said in November
” no new money invested because there will be a correction at some point 10-15″
Go look at it because that’s what I’ve done
That being said I’m up nearly 25% in my investments and I have substantial cash on the sidelines
Now certainly I could have made nord by dumping my cash (20% of my net worth) in the market at at that time but ….. why be greedy?
What I have done is uppped my stops at 6% market drops so I protect myself and I still have cash when the market tanks to by what I want
It’s called a plan…… decrease risk buy on dips
Political garbage not important
Learn grasshopper…. stop being a poor dumbarse
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Go back and look what I said in November
” no new money invested because there will be a correction at some point 10-15″
Go look at it because that’s what I’ve done
That being said I’m up nearly 25% in my investments and I have substantial cash on the sidelines
Now certainly I could have made nord by dumping my cash (20% of my net worth) in the market at at that time but ….. why be greedy?
What I have done is uppped my stops at 6% market drops so I protect myself and I still have cash when the market tanks to by what I want
It’s called a plan…… decrease risk buy on dips
Political garbage not important
Learn grasshopper…. stop being a poor dumbarse
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Funny thing….. Im pretty sure if you and I worked together……we would get along really well….I would have to beatch slap you regularly… but wed get along
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Quote from kpack123
Funny thing….. Im pretty sure if you and I worked together……we would get along really well….I would have to beatch slap you regularly… but wed get along
I told you a long time ago you’d like me
You wouldn’t be able to bitch slap sh*t, I support Donald, you Hillary
You know who the Alpha is in that dynamic, son -
I think there some wisdom in taking *some* money off the table at this point. The market has been on a tear since the election so taking a little profit here is not such a bad idea. I had done some tax-loss harvesting a few years ago which comes in handy at a time like now, can book some solid gains without much if any tax implications.
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Broke 23,500 today… AAPL up after earnings. I thought that my AMZN was going to catch up, but no such luck….
After earnings, there has to be some sort of a correction.
1500 away from 25k…. everyone looks smart. -
Someone wrote in 5 years Amazon will be the economy.
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How many people have the coins (and I’m not talking about money) to drop 1000$ a share?
I certainly don’t
Wish I was smart enough to buy it 15 years ago
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Quote from kpack123
How many people have the coins (and I’m not talking about money) to drop 1000$ a share?
I certainly don’t
Wish I was smart enough to buy it 15 years ago
Think about this. At one point about $30 bought 5000 bit coins. 5000*6000=30,000,000. Something doesn’t seem right. WTF is the value based on?
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Irrational exuberance & hopeful anticipation. Not fundamentals.
Ask F@ger -
Quote from Frumious
Irrational exuberance & hopeful anticipation. Not fundamentals.
Ask F@ger
And as you keep saying this, it climbs from $1000 to start the year to $7000 a coin right now.
You probably don’t even know the arguments, which is why you said your go-to answer of know-nothingness, also proven by the above statement of BTC’s run. So I wonder, why do you make claims when you are not well informed? Cigar took you to school, and you still can’t admit it.
You’re not good at predictions, son, get out of the business. You’re embarrassing yourself. You were born at the right time in a rich country. Your time is up, but you act like wisdom got you something. Which is funny. Now you’ll just be conservative because you’re a “have” and it doesn’t matter anymore. So stop weighing in on things since you don’t really have skin in the game at this point. Credit where credit’s due, dude, you were born at the right time, lol -
Why do you refer to Cigar as if it was a different person?
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Quote from dergon
Why do you refer to Cigar as if it was a different person?
Probably due to the fact that the people I’m talking to are schizophrenic (not you), so it seems a way to get through to them.
They are so mentally out there they think the popular vote determines president. At best, it shows how tribal they are. At worst, how totally mentally retarded they are. -
the bipolar narcissist
Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from dergon
Why do you refer to Cigar as if it was a different person?
Probably due to the fact that the people I’m talking to are schizophrenic (not you), so it seems a way to get through to them.
They are so mentally out there they think the popular vote determines president. At best, it shows how tribal they are. At worst, how totally mentally retarded they are.
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Bitcoin seems to work. It’s wicked hard to understand, but it seems to work.
I always ask people: Have you every bought anything that was on Shark Tank? With a bitcoin? etc. Strangely the answer is always no.
Ask about amazon, netflix, apple, hulu, facebook, the answer is always yes.
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Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from Frumious
Cigar and his incarnations always praying to their God for the downfall and burning of America.
You really do say some of the most asinine stuff on here.
I’m so glad Trump got elected. It gave you a chance to humble yourself, but you’re still unrepentant. That’s why your chaos and madness continues.
Chaos and madness? Aren’t they the other 2 horsemen with Trump mentioned in the Bible? Or maybe I’m just thinking about Trump’s picture under each of those words in the illustrated dictionary?
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So again I’m the only one on here to not only get the biggest predictions right ever, that you guys make threads complaining about and claiming its the end of the world — wow you would have though that must have been a big deal. Yet no credit. Then I say a correction is coming and it’ll be big, and I’m wrong. And I admit it. So I’m one of a kind around here. But you guys are so dishonest, you can’t even admit how honest I am, because you hate me for being right about a lot of things.
Then kpack, who thinks a big correction is coming as well, digs more and deeper. In many ways, he was saying exactly what I was, except he never actually makes a prediction or a bold one. Which is fine, but it’s the easy way out.
The summary is that you guys dog me all the time, yet you’ve never admitted you were wrong or are wrong on a great many things, nor do you give credit to the kind of prediction that makes a guy a lifetime winner, flat out. You just don’t like that the prediction came true. Think about how pathetic that is.
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Quote from dergon
23,000 knocking on the door.
Big drop in 2016
Get out of the market. Buy back when it drops, which will be big.
Another prediction that people will ignore, to their peril.
I said months ago that it past through a point where irrational behavior can continue for a long, long time. Though I still believe it is fundamentally overvalued. I can admit I was wrong, and did, already.
Yet another one of the differences between me and others on the board. I make life changing predictions, am wrong on others, but I have a sack and win. I don’t just sit on the sidelines. And lifetime, if you know anything about risk and reward, shows that I’m not only living life, but up.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
looks like we got a little New Years funk going on.
A year later…… deja vu post
Blood in the streets-
I know China is a burgeoning market but what is the economy there really based on. Ghost cities, bad real estate investment, slave labor. Now that they’re getting routed they halt trading.
Unless I win the powerball Saturday, I’m way off from retirement, so a little dip here and there just lets me buy low. Hopefully in 30 years sell high.-
I am buying. Wish I had more free cash actually to buy more. 10+ years from now it will pay off I am betting.
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Bought some Conoco Phillips
added to my BP-
Cigar looking like all of his crystal ball visions are lining up …
but he’ll hear crickets because of the double standards on the board.
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not really. It dropped about the same in August too. We’re ways away from 12000 range.
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Buy Apple ?
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Apple be good at these levels. I personally would sell it around 120$ though
It’s a trading range stock for a few years at least
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I think it was slightly below the $ amount they did the split at. I’d say yes if you wanted to buy more AAPL.
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Regarding Apple’s sales and the competition:
[link=http://appleinsider.com/articles/16/01/09/apples-competition-is-going-to-have-a-tough-year-in-2016]http://appleinsider.com/a…e-a-tough-year-in-2016[/link]-
Looks like the world markets are sliding already so I’m guessing we’re going to see another down day/week. Closing in on the bear market status.
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Bear is getting hungry
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Right, and I don’t know anything, kpack
This year will be fun. Don’t worry, I won’t be too harsh when you look silly with wrong quotes all over the place -
[b]Right, and I don’t know anything, kpack [/b]
Your problem is you are too emotionally attached to what you want to happenin order to say I told you so, that you can’t see opportunity
Like I said before………….. You have no financial acumen and never will you have a pot to pee in
And no way in hello the Dow drops to your 12,000 level.
THis is a buying opportunity…………….plain and simple -
Quote from kpack123
Right, and I don’t know anything, kpack
Your problem is you are too emotionally attached to what you want to happenin order to say I told you so, that you can’t see opportunity
Like I said before………….. You have no financial acumen and never will you have a pot to pee in
And no way in hello the Dow drops to your 12,000 level.
[b][i]THis is a buying opportunity…………….plain and simple [/i][/b]
Quoted for future reference, again -
[b]Quoted for future reference[/b]
Here is another one to Quote……………… The time to start buying big oil is now. COP BP and most of the other big boys Halliburton under 30$
In 3-4 years you will be very happy
Quote this one dipsquit
throw some Pfizer in there too
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[b]Cigar looking like all of his crystal ball visions are lining up … [/b]
[b]but he’ll hear crickets because of the double standards on the board. [/b]
[b](-: [/b]
As harry said to Lloyd
[i]”Just when I dint think you could get any dumber……………………………You totally redeem yourself'[/i]
You do realize that Markets Fluctuate and you called essentially a 30-40% drop………………. You do realize that right?
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Looking at the [link=http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-added-292-000-jobs-in-december-1452259938]US jobs data today [/link], it sure doesn’t paint a picture of the US moving into recession.
It looks like US shrugging off China, fed continuing to raise rates in the Spring or so with a strong dollar divergent from easing other currencies, strong healthy US consumer, cheap gold, probably cheap hydrocarbons.
The stock market is not the economy but …
And that doesn’t mean the the US equity markets might not settle into a lower multiple post-fed stim, but…
it sure doesn’t look like a crash from here.
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Dergon, what would you define as a “crash”
We always have to define terms because of the language games people play on this board.-
I would use the following
A 10% -20% drop is a “correction”
A greater than 20% drop is “bear market”
Somewhere around a 30% drop would qualify. From a dow of 18,000 or so that means your call of 12,000 would be in the “crash” range.
5% over a few days absolutely does not mean “crash” … most of the time it means absolutely nothing.
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It did the same thing in August before ramping right back up. I think the bear market would play more if it stays down over a few months. Someone mentioned AAPL. Stocks down from $130 ish to $96, yet the company is still making money hand over fist. Buy the broken stock as Cramer would say.
edit: There’s also speculation that they’ll be dumping the head phone jack. So that might be a buying oppurtunity. People will have to replace a lot of headphones or buy new adapters.-
No headphone jack would kill Square.
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I suspect if it happens they’ll bundle a lightning to “X” adapter. So if you can figure out who’s making that kind of stuff, I suspect they’ll sell lots of them.
Optionally with payment cards needing to have chips now, I’d wonder if Apple comes out with a way to just read the chip into a Square App or the like -
Quote from NYPhD
No headphone jack would kill Square.
There will be an adapter until the new gadgets will have the new Lightening connector.
[link=http://macdailynews.com/2015/11/30/apple-rumored-to-replace-3-5mm-headphone-jack-on-iphone-7-with-all-in-one-lightning-connector/]http://macdailynews.com/2…e-lightning-connector/[/link]
[link=http://www.macrumors.com/2016/01/07/iphone-7-thinner-waterproof-no-headphone-jack/]http://www.macrumors.com/…oof-no-headphone-jack/[/link]
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Quote from dergon
I would use the following
A 10% -20% drop is a “correction”
A greater than 20% drop is “bear market”
Somewhere around a 30% drop would qualify. From a dow of 18,000 or so that means your call of 12,000 would be in the “crash” range.
5% over a few days absolutely does not mean “crash” … most of the time it means absolutely nothing.
Fair enough, in general I agree. I only would dispute, a bit, the bear market to crash definition you give. I think if the market dropped close to 4k, it would be a huge bear minimally, panic, but I guess also I would predict it would go lower because of that down to the “crash” level you state. It’s hard to predict but I still see a big drop coming.
These recent moves are perturbations but do foreshadow a bit to the problematic global economy and tenuous US growth, which I really don’t see.-
[b]It’s hard to predict but I still see a big drop coming. [/b]
Keep buying that gold Dipsquit-
You’d be silly not to be in cash now, I’ll bring this advice up later when I steamroll low prices and hold
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You won’t steamroll anything
You will never have a pot to pee in with your financial acumen
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There are a number of problems with moving to cash as the market dips
1) most investors sell after the dip to at least some extent causing them to “sell low”
2)most investors wait until well after the recovery is underway to get back in causing them to buy high
3) many investors tax on unnecessary tax liabilities through capital gains (especially severe if there are short term gains involved) as well as transaction costs when they sell stocks.Thus, for most investors chamgimg asset allocation based on short term moves in the market causes them to significantly underperform the market of the long term.
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dergs, (or anyone else)
Do you know if you can actually execute a backdoor Roth conversion right now (the transaction takes place in 2016) for the 2015 tax year because we haven’t filed taxes yet? Or does the transaction have to actually take place (post tax $5500 to standard IRA then a movement to Roth IRA) IN 2015?
I seem to have come across different sources claiming different things here. Thanks.
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I can’t find a historical post or quote, but let’s say you’re quoting someone 4 years ago, seizure boy
BP went from 35 to $52 in 2 years.
Umm, you’re wrong again
But you assume holding forever, which is why you will fail this year
Sorry to break the news, but it’s not news that you know much less than you claim -
Pretty sure that it is a Dec 31 deadline.
Otherwise you could convert the 2016 contrib in 2015.Quote from Cigar
dergs, (or anyone else)
Do you know if you can actually execute a backdoor Roth conversion right now (the transaction takes place in 2016) for the 2015 tax year because we haven’t filed taxes yet? Or does the transaction have to actually take place (post tax $5500 to standard IRA then a movement to Roth IRA) IN 2015?
I seem to have come across different sources claiming different things here. Thanks.
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there was money to be made on BP when they decided to lubricate the gulf of mexico, just like there was money to be made in auto stocks when they were all hammered down.
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Quote from kpack123
wtf I bought in at 30$
[b]Anyways………………..35 TO 52 IS A 50% GAIN[/b]
In 2 years. I will take that anyday of any week if any year
And you aren’t even counting dividends which packs on another 6-7% per year
Gosh are you stupid
Like I said……………….. you will never have a pot to pee in
Same thing with Apple…………. Wouldn’t touch it at 130…………….. but it looks pretty darn good at 95
That’s what my point was. I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, you make no sense. -
Great buying opportunity, you already lost your a$$, but don’t listen to me
this is going to be fun, it ain’t stopping now
down another 400 already -
Quote from Cigar
Big drop in 2016
Get out of the market. Buy back when it drops, which will be big.
Another prediction that people will ignore, to their peril.
That quote is 12/17/15, when the Dow closed at 17495.
Currently, it is 15622.
Yeah, I’m an idiot.
LOL-
Yup you are only 2000 points off
Corrections are healthy and create some great buying opportunities
Im 50 percent in of my available cash as of this AM when I added more Big oil.
If it falls more I buy more
When it stabilizes…………. I look for bargains
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10+% in a month, DOW or S&P … not bad
See, people never give credit where it’s due, no matter what
They all become specialists in confirmation bias, kpack the latest here-
I will give you credit for being a chicken little extremist
You said 12000 when most everyone else on here called for a correction
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I actually make predictions, not chicken sh*t and weak language that one can retrospectively mold (like “correction”)
That’s the difference between me and the rest.
You should at least respect that I take positions and risk instead of going through life worried about being wrong.
On top of that, way more of my predictions come true than your confirmation bias will ever give credit to. Today is another example.-
Saying DOW 12000 and then claiming some sort of weird vindication or Victory when the Dow is at 15600 is really nothing be respectful of
Confirm that bias for me
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I didn’t claim anything of the sort. What I did say is that currently, if you listened to me in December, you could have made 10% in one month = fact.
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Also, my prediction could be wrong if there is a HUGE QE in the middle to end of the year. No, I’m not hedging, because part of my prediction includes that as a possibility. I still stand by my major drop prediction.
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So wait are you saying you did or didnt say the dow would go to 12,000
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Quote from Cigar
Also, my prediction could be wrong if there is a HUGE QE in the middle to end of the year. No, I’m not hedging, because part of my prediction includes that as a possibility. I still stand by my major drop prediction.
I think QE is baked in. The ECB is going to keep it very loose and probably will continue if not expand QE.
And the Chinese will throw as much money at the problem as is needed. For them it is not just economic, it is a political. They need to keep their populace satisfied. I expect a lot of Chinese cash to enter.
If you mean [i]United States[/i] QE, I don’t think so. This market correction is about external events. I don’t think Yellen is going to hike again in March, but she’s not going to cut rates or start another easing program either.-
dergs, I was talking specifically a newer, fresher QE by the Federal Reserve.
Oh, just saw your last statement. Well, my prediction was a big drop, and as I said, I don’t think she will, which is why I think it’ll drop — fundamentally the economy is not good and hasn’t been. If she is dumb enough to raise interest rates to any meaningful degree, I won’t be happy for America, but my prediction will be that much more likely. -
You said 12000
Let’s be clear
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Quote from kpack123
You said 12000
Let’s be clear
Again, misrepresentation of the quote and context, let’s be clear is right, don’t prey on the laziness of others no to check
I said 12000 range (meaning the 12 is the first two digits, means 12000-12999) and I also said mid 2016-2017
That’s VERY specific
You are greedy to try to lock me down (and again you obfuscate), and I wonder why. You must be worried about something -
Sure that’s what you said………………… right
But your still 3000 point off
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You and I know exactly what I said, I looked it up a few hours ago to confirm, “… in the 12000 range” … that’s my prediction (also stated 2016-17 since my feeling was that it’d happen/really begin towards the mid to end of this year), I’m sticking to it, of course
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So since when is 15500 in the 12000 range
Nearly everyone on this board that I read suggested a 10-20% pull back……………..which is kinda where we are
I’m kinda at a lack of understanding what your point is
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No they didn’t, they used weak language “correction”
Again, the differenc between you and me is that I am actually precise with language; particularly with predictions.
Everyone else dances around crap so they can mold it later and because they are so afraid of being “wrong”
It’s not a big drop yet, clearly. Let’s wait and see from mid 2016-2017. We’ll both be here. It’ll be funny when they somehow blame Trump for a decrease when Obama is the cause of all the foolish, idiotic spending that has done nothing, and the economic stagnation-
And you are right about this
Most people here called for a correction
A correction is at least 10% off of the top most would say 10-15
That’s kinda where were yesterday before the rally
I don’t think you know much…………….you just spout off
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