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DOW 17000… So close!!!
Was expecting it tomorrow….
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1 Reply
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It’s the first of the month. So I bought in today with my same monthly $$.
Third quarter starting well eh? 🙂-
Who cares? It’s such an arbitrary number, especially when you consider its sample size and the fact you are constantly moving companies in and out of the Dow.
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Quote from Voxeled
Who cares? It’s such an arbitrary number, especially when you consider its sample size and the fact you are constantly moving companies in and out of the Dow.
I care…
I can understand why it’s arbitrary to you and you may not care.
Some evidence why it’s not arbitrary to others.
1) Google DOW 17000 and then google DOW 34634897036479
2) The DJIA is imperfect, but not random.
3) If you own DIA or FSEVX or any other financial instrument that is closely related to the DJIA, DOW = any number is important. Anyone who owns SDOW cares about DOW =17000.
4) It is a milestone. Who cares about a 33rd birthday or a 50th wedding anniversary?-
We now need to start a new thread on “S&P 500 — 2000!”
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Quote from dergon
We now need to start a new thread on “S&P 500 — 2000!”
First time’s the best….
Second time’s the charm? Or is it third?-
Quote from NYPhD
Quote from dergon
We now need to start a new thread on “S&P 500 — 2000!”
First time’s the best….
Second time’s the charm? Or is it third?
It’s all good. Correction needs to come at some point, but that’s natural.
For now, Goldman Sachs increases its call for the S&P 500 year end 2014 to 2050.
That’s about another 3-4% to go ….. make it 9-10% for the year if they’re right about it.-
Looks like DOW 1600 is more likely than 1700 at this time.
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Corrections are a natural part of the market.
Long term strategy shouldn’t change. but if anyone has been sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy, now is probably as good a time as ever.
I’m not hoping the GOP takes the Senate, but if they do… history says Democratic President with GOP congress is good for the market. 🙂-
Barry Ritholz saying it better than me:
Last month, we discussed how we might be on the [link=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-07/a-correction-is-coming]verge[/link] of a correction. We also noted the futility of trying to time the start and finish of such events. What actually matters is how you react — or [link=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-10/has-the-market-correction-started]overreact[/link].
As my colleague Josh Brown has [link=http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/08/20/a-field-guide-to-stock-market-corrections/]observed[/link], since the end of World War II (1945), there have been 27 corrections of 10 percent or more, versus only 12 full-blown bear markets (20 percent or worse).
The simple reality is that corrections come along on a regular basis, and for reasons that are undecipherable or indeterminate. This is the way it is and always has been. Anyone who tells you he can predict when a 5 percent or even 10 percent correction is going to start and end, and do so with any degree of consistency, has something very expensive and mostly worthless to sell you.
Almost 500 trading days have passed without a 10 percent retreat. If you have grown so complacent as to have forgotten this, then you might very well be in the wrong line of work.
Corrections happen. Get used to it.
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Welcome back….
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Or DOW 18000… So close!!!!
Quote from dergon
We now need to start a new thread on “S&P 500 — 2000!”
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If I was a good contrarian, I would shift assets to the European markets. Those markets have been beaten up and may have more of an up side vs our fully valued markets. The German economy is showing signs of waking up. The Euro economies usually lag the US by about two years.
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And maybe more ECB easing on the horizon. Draghi is consider QE with bond buying. Market friendly policy. 🙂
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[link=http://news.morningstar.com/all/market-watch/TDJNMW2014112435/european-stocks-gain-on-draghi-qe-hints-ifo-rise.aspx]http://news.morningstar.c…qe-hints-ifo-rise.aspx[/link]
Don’t fight the {European} Fed!
[b]European stocks gain on Draghi QE hints[/b][/h1]
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Not sure that foreign QE can have the same effect as US.
Hopefully it will ease the effects of the US stopping.
Quote from dergon
[link=http://news.morningstar.com/all/market-watch/TDJNMW2014112435/european-stocks-gain-on-draghi-qe-hints-ifo-rise.aspx]http://news.morningstar.c…qe-hints-ifo-rise.aspx[/link]
Don’t fight the {European} Fed!
[b]European stocks gain on Draghi QE hints[/b]-
Quote from NYPhD
Not sure that foreign QE can have the same effect as US.
Hopefully it will ease the effects of the US stopping.Quote from dergon
[link=http://news.morningstar.com/all/market-watch/TDJNMW2014112435/european-stocks-gain-on-draghi-qe-hints-ifo-rise.aspx]http://news.morningstar.c…qe-hints-ifo-rise.aspx[/link]
Don’t fight the {European} Fed!
[b]European stocks gain on Draghi QE hints[/b]
*nods*. It can hopefully buy Yellen some breathing room and keep the markets from flaining as the Fed money dries up.
Euro-zone inflation was only 0.3% this quarter. They’re gonna have to pull the trigger o stimulus soon.
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Quote from aldadoc
If I was a good contrarian, I would shift assets to the European markets. Those markets have been beaten up and may have more of an up side vs our fully valued markets. The German economy is showing signs of waking up. The Euro economies usually lag the US by about two years.
Jack Bogle warns of risks in Europe
[link=http://online.barrons.com/articles/might-vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-be-wrong-for-a-change-1418168114]http://online.barrons.com…or-a-change-1418168114[/link]
[b]
[h1]Might Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?[/b][/h1]
Jack Bogle has been so right about so much through the years. But he appears to be off the mark in his last comments about overseas investing.
In an [link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/jack-bogle-i-wouldn-t-risk-investing-outside-the-u-s-.html]interview with Bloomberg[/link], Bogle, who no longer runs Vanguard, says that he wouldnt personally buy stocks outside of the United States.
I was struck by a number of things in this interview. First, Bogle doesnt appear to be making allowances for valuation in his stock buying. And second, he seems to be giving the back of his hand to roughly half of the worlds market capitalization at a time when U.S. stocks have almost had six years of almost uninterrupted growth and are sporting relatively high valuations.
He may be right some of the currently anemic country markets of Europe and Asia. But at some point these beaten markets will bounce back, and investors who shun them wont be able to benefit from their rebound.
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Quote from NYPhD
Or DOW 18000… So close!!!!
Back over 18k today.
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And today again
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Waiting for Oil to bottom…………………………………………
Then buy buy buy
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“Part time radiologist” … I like the sound of that 🙂
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[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-before-home-sales-data.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…e-home-sales-data.html[/link]
S&P 500 crosses 2000 for the first time ever.-
Interesting Chart-
Welcome back old friend….
I had a colleague talking hard sell two and a half weeks ago. Can’t believe I even listened.After the elections we should get some real support.
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And Q3 US GDP beats estimates at 3.5% today.
Traditionally a little relief rally post-election …
I say through to year end looks as good 🙂
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Markets close at record highs and it is not the leading financial story.
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Quote from NYPhD
Markets close at record highs and it is not the leading financial story.
Whoo hoo!
Just stick with the plan and plow ahead.-
With oil staying down for the foreseeable future looks like we may see Dow 20,0000 sooner than everyone thought
Hardest decision to make will be when to sell some things I bought after the Bush market collapse
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Knocking on the door of 18,000 today.
17,977 at time of this posting …-
12/12/2014 12:12 PM EST DOW=17,360
Is this a dip or a correction? Time will tell….
Quote from dergon
12/05/14 11:01AM
Knocking on the door of 18,000 today.
17,977 at time of this posting …-
A dip…..
Tue, Dec 23, 2014, 9:46AM EST DOW=18,015
Quote from NYPhD
12/12/2014 12:12 PM EST DOW=17,360
Is this a dip or a correction? Time will tell….Quote from dergon
12/05/14 11:01AM
Knocking on the door of 18,000 today.
17,977 at time of this posting …-
I’m going to say that the true correction comes in 2015. We dip somewhere around the Fed rate rise. Valuations are way high and ready to come back.
Dergon’s 2015 S&P 500 projection is 2100 +/- 5% ….. basically flat from here.
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I hope that you are right, but high oil may be better for us in the long run.
$500-1000 more at the pump each year personally is well offset by 2% in the market.
HAL is certainly getting beaten. DUK has weathered well.
My bet is that transportation will benefit over the next 6 mos.
Quote from kpack123
With oil staying down for the foreseeable future looks like we may see Dow 20,0000 sooner than everyone thought
Hardest decision to make will be when to sell some things I bought after the Bush market collapse
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Unfortunately, this thread still has legs….
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That’s OK …. a market dip due to low-cost oil is not a long term bad thing at all.
The cheap gas will be like a giant middle class tax cut.
And if the mega-cap oil companies come down a bit and put the overall valuations of the market in a lower reset point then it’s all good going forward.-
The thread is interesting to me as a diary.
I thought of posting about 18,000 before you did, but didn’t think it was going to happen that day.
And now 17,000 is in reach….
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Quote from NYPhD
The thread is interesting to me as a diary.
I thought of posting about 18,000 before you did, but didn’t think it was going to happen that day.
And now 17,000 is in reach….
And back to 17,600+ in two days. The dips don’t seem to last too long.
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[h2]Wow![/h2] [h2]Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)[/h2]
17,777.31 [image]http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/base/images/transparent-1093278.png[/image]+ 420.44(2.42%)
Quote from dergon
Quote from NYPhD
The thread is interesting to me as a diary.
I thought of posting about 18,000 before you did, but didn’t think it was going to happen that day.
And now 17,000 is in reach….And back to 17,600+ in two days. The dips don’t seem to last too long.
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[url]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/23/now-that-the-dow-has-hit-18000-let-us-remember-the-worst-op-ed-in-history/?postshare=7231419388112536[/url]
The worst timed op-ed in history.
The Dow passed a big one on Tuesday, closing above 18,000 for the first time.
And that brings us to the worst op-ed in history. On March 6, 2009, former George W. Bush adviser Michael Boskin offered whatever the opposite of a prophecy is when he said that “[link=http://www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123629969453946717?mg=reno64-wsj]Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow[/link].” Now let’s set the scene. Obama had been in office for less than two months at that point, and in that time, stocks had admittedly fallen a lot as markets worried that the big bank bailout known as TARP wouldn’t actually be enough to save the banks. It got so bad that Citigroup briefly became [link=http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123627583450142121]a penny stock[/link].
Boskin, though, didn’t think that this once-in-three-generations financial crisis was to blame for the market meltdown. Instead, he blamed it on Obama for … talking about raising taxes? “It’s hard not to see the continued sell-off on Wall Street and the growing fear on Main Street,” Boskin philosophized, “as a product, at least in part, of the realization that our new president’s policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy.” What followed was the usual conservative jeremiad against higher taxes on the rich, lower taxes on the poor, and deficit spending. Obama’s trying to turn us into Europe, and that’s why markets are pricing in the possibility of a Great Depressionnot the dying economy he inherited.
Stocks bottomed on March 9, three days after the op-ed, as the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying and the Treasury’s stress tests restored confidence in the financial system.
Add it all up, and Obama’s radicalism has killed the Dow to the tune of a 171 percent return since Boskin’s op-ed.
[image]http://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2014/12/Dow-Boskin-Op-Ed.jpg[/image]
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looks like we got a little New Years funk going on.
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Declining oil. As households cheer, Wall Street sells.
Interesting to see what happens next in the oil market & tax revenue in energy states.-
I don’t see how oil prices play into everything. Apple has been sliding and I’d bet next time they report they’ll probably have made more money than ever on iPhone 6s. Everyone I know seems to have gotten an iPhone 6 for Christmas or bought them for their kids.
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The market has a herd mentality. Hitch a ride until you see the edge.
Re Apple, analysts have always dissed Apple for one thing or another. Everytime Apple announces record profits & sales, that seems to disappoint Wall Street for some reason so Apple’s stock price declines. Go figure. Doom & gloom always predicted & Apple always show the analysts up by being more successful.
[link=http://daringfireball.net/linked/2014/10/20/wakabayashi-story-line]http://daringfireball.net…wakabayashi-story-line[/link]
[link=http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/12/30/editorial-the-world-revolved-around-apple-inc-in-2014]http://appleinsider.com/a…ound-apple-inc-in-2014[/link] -
Apple is now in a trading range
It can’t possibly continue to meet the expectaions of the analyst who pump it, That’s what happens to mature companies.
This is like watching Groundhog day in the 90’s when Microsft Intel Oracle even GE and IBM did the same thing-
AAPL is a good one to sell covered calls against these days. As is goes up and down within a range you can make some extra money of your shares.
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[link=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-decision-idUSKCN0V70A7]http://www.reuters.com/ar…decision-idUSKCN0V70A7[/link]
BOJ with a surprise stimulating move …. cuts interest rates to negative.-
what’s really driving their economy lower? If their currency is down it should be easier for them to export, I would think.
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Demographics.
Japan’s population is now actively shrinking and aging at the highest rate on earth with a birth rate of only 1.39.
They need a few million young immigrants … but they are even more hostile to immigration than the US with a 98%+ native Japanese population.-
isn’t that true everywhere though? People are having less babies, and the boomer generation is ageing.
I think I heard Bill Maher say the Japanese and Chinese are very racist. not sure how true that is. I could see that if it’s 98% Japanese.-
No.
The US is relatively insulated in comparison to other low birth rate nations by its immigration patterns. Our population would be aging dramatically if not for the effect of immigration blunting the effect.
European nations that have immigration waves of younger immigrants who also have higher birth rates get the benefit as well.
That’s not to say that the demographics of aging is not a problem in the US or Europe, just that it isn’t as critical in the US as it is in Japan who is the poster child for the problem.
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big run up to set up another fall …
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Seems like after the big drop in the first two weeks of 2016 we’ve settled into bouncing around Dow in the low 16,000s. A correction.
We’ll have to see what comes…. I’m still doing my monthly investing. 🙂 -
Quote from dergon
Seems like after the big drop in the first two weeks of 2016 we’ve settled into bouncing around Dow in the low 16,000s. A correction.
We’ll have to see what comes…. I’m still doing my monthly investing. 🙂
While reasonable, I think the thing you are furthest from reality on (apart from some political views) is the fundamental soundness of the economy. It is really bad, actually, and that’s why it won’t stop or settle at 16k -
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/INDU:IND]Dow Jones Indus. Avg[/link][/h1] +0.37 %
17,007.25 +63.35
On strong US employment data including a big jobs number for February and upward revisions for December and January.
Earlier this month the survey of economists had the precentage predicting a recession within 12 months down to 19%.
This will cause that percentage to drop further. -
I can see it now, the newly elected President will get blame for a crash, or claim genius for “turning it around”
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Quote from Cigar
I can see it now, the newly elected President will get blame for a crash, or claim genius for “turning it around”
Recession between 2017 inauguration and the 2018 midterms is a much more likely scenario.
Whoever has the white house will probably take a licking. -
Dow now quietly in positive for calendar 2016.
Fed holds on rate raise in March and scales down the anticipated number of raises expected 2016.
What do economists see as the big risk for the economy going forward?: [link=http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-election-turmoil-fuels-economic-uncertainty-wsj-survey-says-1457623862] A Trump (or Sanders) Presidency[/link]. -
Cramer had a really fair and Non-biased report on trump yesterday on CNBC. Basically what he said was Trump is right Our Trade deals do stink but He really won’t or can’t do anything about them. And Trump Won’t or Cant do anything about The big corporations repatriating their Tax dollars. Basically just said A trump Presidency would be business as usual
Biggest risk is the non US economies
Still China and Europe and Russia
The US economy is is pretty strong despite the Election year chicken littles
Im Up 25% on my big oil plays. Thinking of Taking some of the non Dividend payors of the table and cashing in some in MY IRA accounts.
That being said aside from the big stable Dividend paying stocks nothing else at the moment looks really Attractive -
She’s closing back in on 18K. We need a new thread, Dow 18000 so close.
AAPL still seems like a value. I got a little more when it went back to the 90 range. -
Wait wasn’t it supposed to be at 12000 by now
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
She’s closing back in on 18K. We need a new thread, Dow 18000 so close.
Yep.
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looks like another day in the green too. Inflation benign, and job market firming are headlines. I still don’t think I’m expecting much this year. If the jobs keep looking strong, we’d probably see another interest rate bump, even if is only a tiny bump. Maybe the market will take that positively.
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Quote from Cigar
Quote from dergon
Seems like after the big drop in the first two weeks of 2016 we’ve settled into bouncing around Dow in the low 16,000s. A correction.
We’ll have to see what comes…. I’m still doing my monthly investing. 🙂
While reasonable, I think the thing you are furthest from reality on (apart from some political views) is the fundamental soundness of the economy. It is really bad, actually, and that’s why it won’t stop or settle at 16k
[url=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-29/the-mistake-that-separates-most-traders-from-the-pros]Investors consistently over-estimate the likelihood of a stock market crash[/url]
Do investors suffer from behavioral biases? New research demonstrates that they do: They think that a crash is far more likely than it actually is. After you read the newspaper, you might well overreact to bad news about the market — and lose money as a result.
For 26 years, Shiller has asked investors to estimate the likelihood that a severe crash will occur over the next six months. (A severe crash is defined to mean a stock market decline of at least 12.82 percent, as on October 28, 1932.)
The mean estimate over those 26 years has been 19 percent, and the average 10 percent. Thats pretty wild: If we look at the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the actual probability has been about 1 percent; over any lengthy period, an estimate of 10 percent or higher is greatly inflated. It seems clear that American investors have been overestimating the likelihood of a crash.
After the media speak in negative terms, investors end up giving a significantly higher estimate of the crash risk. The front page is what drives this result (further testimony to the power of the availability heuristic): Negative articles that are not on the front page have no effect.
But behavioral scientists do not contend that use of the availability heuristic is irrational. Sensible people should and do update their beliefs on the basis of recent events — they just tend to overdo it. When people base their probability judgments on such events, those judgments often reflect a bias, in the form of an exaggeration of the statistical reality.
In this regard, the researchers best finding — their smoking gun — is that the estimates of institutional investors are impervious to negative news stories. Individual investors beware: If youre constantly worried about a crash, youre probably making some big mistakes, and losing a lot of money in the process.
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18,001.83
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Cant tell yet if this is a typical October or the beginning of the end of the near 10 year bull market
We will probably know in a few months
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^ You can’t tell anything.
And you won’t make a prediction, either. I wonder why you guys post anymore.-
I bought BTC when I told you to (7k) and sold at 17k. Now you’ll probably say that’s not making money. Even math is a puzzle for you people, you are so filled with deception and hate. Look at my prediction again, genius.
You know also I’ve said multiple times that the market would go up during Trump’s presidency. It has.
Will I be exiting my equity positions in 2019 (~ September)? Yes. But I still foresee the markets here going up big time because the world is a joke and bond markets are a joke, too.
I’ve forgotten more than you know. You were just born at the right time. Lucky you. I made it at a time when thousands more were applying to be a doctor, and loans were higher, etc. You at this point can only sit at a computer and lie.
I told you I would look past this if you just admitted the facts (such as my predictions) and acted normal for once. But you can’t even do that.
Anyone can look at my 2018 predictions thread RIGHT NOW and verify that I was 3 for 3.
You probably still think Trump isn’t president
LOLOLOL-
EEKEEKEEKEEK!
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Here are your predictions from 11-23-17
BTC to 5 figures, easy, probably a double or more by years end
-I agree with NYC above, small pullback and overall hysteria from it being seemingly large but overall small considering current values, then continued returns for a lot longer than anyone expects
-Trump continues the demolition of the DC cartel and picks up even more steam, it’s just begun
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Bitcoin is down 60% since the first of the year
The Dow is treading water
The trump prediction I guess depend on where one stands
You are 0-2-1
Please stop embarrassing yourself
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Nostradumbass
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And the stock market continues its decline Tuesday morning.
WINNING! Yes, Trump did tell the truth for once, I am tired of his kind of winning. Pretty horrible for the country.
Wondering if it will continue to decline right into Election Day. -
Quote from kpack123
Here are your predictions from 11-23-17
BTC to 5 figures, easy, probably a double or more by years end
[b]PROVEN TRUE prediction. [/b]
11-23-17 Close: $8,038
1-1-18 Close: $14,156, 4 days later, 1-5-18 close: $17,429
[i]Which one is it, are you stupid, or you can’t read? Worse, are you just a liar?[/i][i]-I agree with NYC above, small pullback and overall hysteria from it being seemingly large but overall small considering current values, then continued returns for a lot longer than anyone expects [/i]
-Trump continues the demolition of the DC cartel and picks up even more steam, it’s just begun
[i]Every one of your threads has turned out to be a big ZERO NOTHING BURGER = obviously Trump has won against all idiocy. Taxes down, repatriation, Kavanaugh, foreign policy NK, NAFTA renegotiation with Mexico and Canada coming to the table, lol, the list goes on and on[/i]
3-0
You probably think the Dems take the Senate, too
LOLOLOLOLOL
Leave the predictions to me, you are 0-fer your last 67
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Nostradumass
The thread was for year 2018
You predicted a double by year end…… that would be 28,000
Its around 6500$ now
Your stock market prediction was at best to early to tell….. or wrong
The market is treading water so as of now its wrong…. but their is still 3 months
The trump prediction was not a prediction just a statement
0-2-1
Thats why you are known as nostradumass
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And another down day. I don’t remember DrF@gan/Nostrodomas predicting this downturn.
Oh, must be the Fed’s fault. -
I had to do a discount double-check. I knew it was down a little earlier, but I guess after 2PM it was a blood bath. 600pts trimmed AKA we’re now negative on the year to date for DJI.
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Quote from Frumious
And another down day. I don’t remember DrF@gan/Nostrodomas predicting this downturn.
Oh, must be the Fed’s fault.
As said above, volatility til the Red wave, but notice that Frumi doesn’t post when it’s up 500 today, green city.
Funny how disingenuous you guys are. -
Quote from Dr. ****er
As said above, volatility til the Red wave, but notice that Frumi doesn’t post when it’s up 500 today, green city.
Funny how disingenuous you guys are.
Well that’s a really stupid statement.
Yes, I do not complain when my investments increase in value. I suppose you complain? -
Well here I am again, F@gan, market down over 400 points this morning again. Still early today but not a good sign. Barrons says concern about Trump’s trade war is having its affect pushing the markets down.
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Republicans usually F things up
Go back and look at every post WW2 Republican administration
They almost always F things up eventually
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And the economy and markets were going up at the end of Clinton’s run, right? You always blame someone else, even though it’s obviously not related.
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Yes it was actually
Dow was up 170% under Clinton
Ended on a high note
Are you really so fng stupid or do you just like getting beat over the head with actual facts
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Quote from kpack123
Yes it was actually
Dow was up 170% under Clinton
Ended on a high note
Are you really so fng stupid or do you just like getting beat over the head with actual facts
Now kpack showing he can’t even read a simple chart. -
You are not only stupid
You are delusional
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Forget the market. Buy vacant residential and commercial land for investment.
Land is limited near big cities and US populations is growing!!
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Hey F@gan,
If you want to predict start investing in Bitcoin futures. Or have you already?-
Nostradumass
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Quote from Frumious
Hey F@gan,
If you want to predict start investing in Bitcoin futures. Or have you already?
It’s Dr. Fager.
I’m not playing bitcoin currently, as I already doubled up when I told you guys to; of course you didn’t.
I am bullish on the US stock market but will see big volatility until the November elections when the red wave will shoot the markets back sky high.
Do what you want with the info, just don’t lie about it, like kpack does.
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The IPhone 10 is whats killing them
Not a huge market for a1000$ cell phone
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Unless you have a plan, none of Frumi-like complaints matter.
At least kpack has one. Who knows if it’s good. He won’t say what it is.
Fundamentally this economy is solid still. Of course equities are overvalued, but that doesn’t mean anything unless you know when they won’t be anymore.
Volatility will reign, but a big big drop won’t happen for quite some time still.-
I think the logical thing to say is I have no idea when the drop is going to happen.
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Logical aint gonna happen.
This is the same guy who said a huge crash was coming all through the Obama administration then flipped on a dime in November of 2016 and said that the bull market would last another 8 years.
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My plan never changes much
Buy good companies with a history of increasing yearly dividends when they are beat up for not good reasons
Usually market downturns is like an orgy for investors like me
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Yeah the cap gains and dividend is a saving Grace for what looks like it’s going to be a flat or down year. I’ve got one paying out $4 a share for the December distribution. Nice chunk of dough that gets to go back in while the price is near low.
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Quote from dergon
Logical aint gonna happen.
This is the same guy who said a huge crash was coming all through the Obama administration then flipped on a dime in November of 2016 and said that the bull market would last another 8 years.
As usual, oversimplification for fun-posting-on-a-forum reply.
This is the same guy that made the greatest prediction ever posted on this board, but somehow no one ever talks about that. I wonder why. To be taken seriously, one has to be honest, and since no one ever admitted the greatness of the political predictions of me or my colleagues, how or why should anyone take seriously their criticisms? Especially those that don’t make predictions. As usual, no skin in the game.
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Quote from IR27
I think the logical thing to say is I have no idea when the drop is going to happen.
The first thing is that you have to first define terms.
Then you have to be honest about what people are saying, and have said. That’s all.
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DOW 17000… So close!!! 07/01/14 10:31AM
DOW 27,020.62+160.42 (+0.60%)As of 11:13AM EDT. Market open. 07/11/2019-
And all from a healthcare rally after the administration decided to drop the plan regarding drug rebates.
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Dow closes above 27,000 for first time
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With Iranian production hitting the market over the next year the bottom could still be a good ways off.
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If the RINO’s in Congress don’t’ interfere with the abomination of a treaty with Iran, you can bet on oil prices as the one and only explanation.
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I should clarify……. Buy Oil stocks when the price bottoms
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I’m curious why more individual investors don’t hedge positions more. You rarely see people who invest in stocks do any kind of hedging. The buy-and-hold mantra is a good one, but I prefer buy-and-hold with downside protection.
Soros talks about this sometimes — cut your losers loose fast and let your winners ride forever.
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I’m just guessing but general public probably invest more in mutual funds and those are managed. So you can kind of let it ride a little with the exception of maybe changing balances, and getting less aggressive over time. Not as many people are as sophisticated to buy options etc… In a retail trading platform like scottrade.
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Buy and hold is a great long term strategy for tax reasons. If you are smart enough to get into quality investments for the long haul, a free loan from the fed growing year after year is one of the few benefits for the middle and upper class. Only problem is that you never really know your net worth.
Ok, I’ll bite. How do you have downside protection over the long term. Repetitively buying puts every 3-6 months for years?
Quote from macrophallus
I’m curious why more individual investors don’t hedge positions more. You rarely see people who invest in stocks do any kind of hedging. The buy-and-hold mantra is a good one, but I prefer buy-and-hold with downside protection.
Soros talks about this sometimes — cut your losers loose fast and let your winners ride forever.
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Quote from NYPhD
Was expecting it tomorrow….
Smoke and mirrors
Crash coming
US economy is fragile-
Buy low sell high….
Stock market will crash….
Popular views…not contrarian…
Quote from anonymous1
Quote from NYPhD
Was expecting it tomorrow….
Smoke and mirrors
Crash coming
US economy is fragile
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Quote from anonymous1
Quote from NYPhD
Was expecting it tomorrow….
Smoke and mirrors
Crash coming
US economy is fragile
Sure. A crash is coming … at some point. Bear markets are a normal part of market function. A drop of 30-40% is normal.
The problem is that you don’t know when that drop is coming.
A nice example, illustrated in this forum, is when Aldadoc sold out of every equity holding in mid-2011. (This was mostly right-wing-news-induced-paranoia, as the “fact” at the time was that an Obama second term would destroy the US and lead to irrevocable economic catastrophe). A “crash is coming” was the thought of it… so he went to cash.
Over the next 2-3 years as he sat in cash on the sidelines, making 1% or so, the S&P 500 actually went up dramatically. If and at what point he decided it was safe to get back in has not yet been clarified, but there was a real opportunity lost.
As for the “US economy is fragile” I would say “less fragile than the economies of every developed nation.”
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As a wise man once told me
If the US economy crashes we are F’d anyway……..so you may as well invest in it -
This is why it can last, but not last too much longer, dergon. I’ve always said that yes, things are overblown and tend to be sensational and I got ribbed to death about the gold discussion, but the fact remains that it is still not down, it has been essentially zero risk. Now, I know you’ll retort (like when alda sold) that you could have made money in the interim. That’s true, [b][i]but only if you sell.[/i][/b] So unless you time it and have it in hand (you can’t predict that either), I don’t mind that I’m sitting on sidelines now. My entry point is going to be mid-late next year when I expect it to be hit pretty hard.
As for kpack, it is true also that if it gets totally crushed, we’re F’d anyway. I hear that.-
You don’t have to be beholden to the stock market to retire comfortably as a radiologists.
Market neutral/absolute return funds/ real estate and bonds can get you there.
You could keep your exposure to the S&P 500 at 30% and still get where you need to go as a radiologist with our income levels.
There are many different roads to financial independence. -
Quote from Cigar
I got ribbed to death about the gold discussion, but the fact remains that it is still not down, it has been essentially zero risk. Now, I know you’ll retort (like when alda sold) that you could have made money in the interim.
No. I’ll retort with this: When you made your claim that gold was going to “3500… it’s no risk”, it was March 2013. Gold was around $1,600/oz then.
Today gold has dipped below $1,100, currently at a 5 year low. That’s a drop of >30% over that interval. If the same thing had happened in the stock market of that perior of time people would be calling it a “crash”.
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Here is some real good economic vice for the winguts
Any time Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck start trying to sell you a financial vehicle or give you financial advice………………..RUN LIKE HELLO
Basically they can only push investments that no one else wants or the big boys are trying to dump before they crash and the only people dumb enough to buy them are the unwavering minions whose minds they control.
Gold A few years back
Oil wells last year
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instead of buying baseball cards I wish I collected gold. What’s the bottom going to be in gold? Looks like it hasn’t dipped much more than 1100 but I think there’s room to go down still. The dollar is pretty strong against the Kangaroo dollar, and I believe they produce the most right behind China. ***according to wikipedia anyway
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Quote from Cigar
[b][i]but only if you sell.[/i][/b]
Not necessarily the case if you seek dividends. If you’re in a fund the dividends probably go back into the fund to purchase more shares. People that had may have bought Apple I believe had 4 dividends paid last year, like a 1.something % yield, but you could have made some more $ by reinvesting it. I have minimal money in a scottrade acct. I’ve done well on Aircastle, AYR. Pays dividends and has gone up
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I completely sold out of my bond holdings in the past month
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Barry Ritholz with a nice [url=http://fundreference.com/articles/2015/1000555/the-clowns-of-wall-street/] Visual history of market crash predicitons[/url]
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Interesting looking at the dates on when those were published. Doom and gloom sells. if the economy adds 200k jobs the headline will read disappointing job numbers. You need to keep pumping money in all the way down and reap the rewards on the next bull market cycle.
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I believe the best way to invest for very efficient markets such as stocks and bonds is passive index funds
Less efficient products such as alternative investments (market neutral, total return funds, private equity etc) I think you need to buy good managers/fund shops.
I currently don’t like bonds and thus am holding a higher alternative investment allocation.
As a radiologist probably the important thing is picking an asset allocation and sticking with it through market turbulence. At retirement age likely will have a large portfolio.
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Bonds or bond funds?
Bond funds are probably going to get clobbered, but surprisingly they performed last year.
Quote from kpack123
I completely sold out of my bond holdings in the past month
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Quote from NYPhD
Buy and hold is a great long term strategy for tax reasons. If you are smart enough to get into quality investments for the long haul, a free loan from the fed growing year after year is one of the few benefits for the middle and upper class. Only problem is that you never really know your net worth.
Ok, I’ll bite. How do you have downside protection over the long term. Repetitively buying puts every 3-6 months for years?
Quote from macrophallus
I’m curious why more individual investors don’t hedge positions more. You rarely see people who invest in stocks do any kind of hedging. The buy-and-hold mantra is a good one, but I prefer buy-and-hold with downside protection.
Soros talks about this sometimes — cut your losers loose fast and let your winners ride forever.
DIY hedging is complicated and has significant costs associated with it. That’s why people pay the big boys 2&20 to do it for them …. and then most underperform in the long run.
For investors with a long term time horizon there is no reason to dampens long-term returns by attempting to cut downside risk. Just buy and hold and it let ride, DCA-into your account every month, rain or shine, bear or bull.-
Yes buy and hold is a great overall strategy, however one must also consider that bonds look like a poor investment going forward from here.
If you use your classic 60/40 stock and bond portfolio the bond side performance is likely to pull down your returns significantly. I use alternative investments (absolute return, market neutral, private equity etc) instead of bonds in a roughly 60/40 portfolio. The point is to hold less correlated asset classes basically, that’s true diversification.-
Well Apple having a nice pullback because they only made 10 truckloads of money instead of 11. Hit the buy, buy, buy button Cramer.
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[image]http://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/app_themes/Classic/image/mIcons/m1.gif[/image]DOW 17000… So close!!! 07/01/14 10:31AM (permalink)
[image]http://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/app_themes/Classic/image/blank.gif[/image] [image]http://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/app_themes/Classic/image/menuEdit.gif[/image]Edit Message [/ul]Was expecting it tomorrow….
Getting close again…..
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Dow 17,002.92 for the close
S&P 500 in negative territory YTD-
gold prices went up. $3500 here we come.
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China bungles its economy and its stock market producing more supply than demand & the world’s markets panic.
Panic from Wall Street lemmings running as a pack over the ledge.-
Do we see Halliburton get to 30 bucks a share
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Yes, if Jeb is elected & we get a new war.
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don’t let politics get in the way of a good buy
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
gold prices went up. $3500 here we come.
Remember what gold was in 2003?
QE has proven that gold’s value will only continue to rise.
The market is overbought, why is that so hard to see? Go ahead and time it if you want, I don’t blame you — but don’t act like this market is real. The US economy produces little. Read: service industry … can’t and never could last.
Fed is hooked, market’s hooked to cheap money and creates bubble after bubble…-
Can you overbuy a market? like Apple for example, which is getting hammered, there’s not infinite Apple stock to buy on the market. According to what I hear on the Bloomberg radio, revenue and earnings haven’t really been meeting stock price. So that’s one thing, plus China weighing down the market. I actually own a couple of coins so i’m OK with gold going up, don’t see $3500 though.
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Cigar
Do you want to make money and be financially secure?
If so…….put the idiotic idealism, politically motivated bias and the heat of the moment impulses aside and look at the big picture
THis is no bubble…..this is a correction and a huge buying opportunity,
Oil is not going to stay this low forever. The banks are cheap
A lot of drug companies are underpriced and Dividend payors are always a safe bet in turmoil
Don’t be stupid
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If I wasn’t already fully invested, I’d be buying.
Dowell only down 170 or something right now. People who bought just after the open this morning looking good.
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This is the usual conundrum. Catching a falling knife, versus dead cat bounce, versus bottom of a correction. If you believe in buy low and sell high. This may be a good opportunity to buy.
Gold may be a good opportunity at this time. The international markets are in very sad shape.
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Quote from Frumious
China bungles its economy and its stock market producing more supply than demand & the world’s markets panic.
That’s been true for a while especially in the housing/building. They’ve got an exact replica of Paris where no one lives, ghost cities of China. I was watching Vice on HBO who did a nice segment on it. Basically the Chinese people got suckered into investing in real estate, the real estate doesn’t sell, so they got burnt. Plus the government has basically taken land from people that farmed etc.. basically rural people. Those people lost their way of living in place of building a ghost city. The chickens are coming home to roost.
It’s different than the US bubble also where basically prices went way up especially in places like Florida and Cali. They just built so much and no one is buying.-
Futures point to putting us into a full correction today.
Hold on to your hats, people. It’s gonna get a bit bumpy.-
Bumpy?
THis is when it gets interesting………. Always buy when then blood runs in the streets
I cashed my entire bond portfolio recently to free up some cash for this opportunity-
it’s a blood bath, although I was kind of expecting it. One of the really interesting stocks to me is ALibaba, which I understood was like the Chinese Amazon.com. That things been hammered down, might be something to watch for a good buying opportunity.
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Apple looks a lot better here than it did at 130
Buy it here in your IRA and sell it in a few months at 120 and make yourself a quick 20 percent profit
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Just ignore the noise. I invest for the long-term.
The best portfolio is one that is low-cost, tax-efficient, diversified, and you only need to look at it once a year or so.-
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS buy when the blood runs in the street.
I spent a third of my available cash today. Looking to spend more soon maybe tommorrow maybe next week .
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It has been shown over and over again that market timing doesn’t work unless you have inside information. You could think there is “blood on the streets” and this could just be the beginning.
Best thing is to stay in the market over time, not try to time the market.
Having said that if you are buying with the intent to hold for decades then now is as good a time as any.-
I personally could care less what experts thing about market timing, although I will say I only went 1/3 in yesterday because this could go much lower over the next few months. Basically though the experts……………… They know Jack Squat. Since 1998 I have made huge gains on buying beaten down stocks after panic sell offs
If I buy in my IRA I don’t really care when I sell them because I am paying no tax but If I buy outside of an IRA I generally hold for more than a year or some cases indefinitely
I Buy Halliburton everytime it falls under 30 and sell it above 40. If you look it has done this multiple times in the past 10-15 years
when Dow chemical fell to 6 bucks a few years back I bought 5000 shares and sold them a few years later for 40
Pfizer at 17 boom
Bank of America at 5 boom
I bought most of My REIT holdings after the real estate collapse for pennies on the dollar
A lot of people do not have the stomach to buy when blood is flowing but that is when I have done the best
Simply put If you don’t buy when things are beaten down You are leaving meat on the bone and money on the table
Look at everyone who loves Apple……………….. You could have had it yesterday for 96 a share. These are the same people saying what a great buy it is at 130
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I think it’s correct in that you can’t time the market downturn but when it turns hard there’s definitely some buying opportunities to take advantage of. You’ve got fire sales going on good stocks, Apple, Panera, Netflix just to name a few. If you’ve got a little money it certainly seems like a good time, unless you think it might go down more. Bloomberg said it’s still Asia getting routed this morning today.
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Hardest part is knowing when the bottom is upon us or close
That is something I can never predict so I tend to space my buys out, spending 25%-to a third on the intitial fall off of a cliff and holding back until markets either stabilize or fall more.
It can definitely go lower, ,maybe even another 10% but my gut is telling me right now not a lot lower.-
Gotta love the Contrarian approach!
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I like this headline (Bloomberg opo-ed)
[url=http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-26/china-s-stocks-are-crashing-don-t-freak-america]China Is Crashing. Don’t Freak, America[/url]
Chinas stock market is having its second crash this year, which isn’t very surprising. Last month, when the Chinese government intervened to support the market, almost everyone realized that it still had further to fall. Given that Chinas stocks are still up a lot over the past year, there may be more bloodshed to come.
And yet every time theres a big market meltdown somewhere in the world, people freak out. Is this the start of the next global recession? Will U.S. markets catch the disease and crater as well? Although that’s always a possibility, these dangers probably are not as serious as many people think. Here are some reasons why you shouldnt worry.
The first is that in the U.S., stocks almost always bounce back. Though U.S. markets have plunged by about 10 percent from their highs in the past week, the decline shows some signs of running out of steam and it’s possible they might start rising again. The really important reversion, however, happens over larger time spans. When stocks are expensive and price-to-earnings multiples are high, they tend to post returns that are lower than historical averages. When stocks are cheap, they tend to return more.
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A second reason not to worry too much is that the U.S. has an enormous bilateral trade deficit with China. The U.S. imports about three times as much from China as it exports to China. In other words, U.S. trade with China is mostly one-way — China sells the U.S. goods and services, the U.S. gives China IOUs. That means that a Chinese slump will do little harm to U.S. businesses, because so few of them are dependent on selling to China.…
So there are many theoretical reasons not to worry very much about the Chinese market crash and slowdown. There are historical reasons as well. In 1989 and 1990, Japan experienced a titanic crash in both its real estate and stock markets, followed by a decade-long economic slump. During that period the U.S. economy zoomed ahead, while U.S. stock markets went on a record tear. Contagion from what was then the worlds second-largest economy just wasn’t that severe.So don’t freak. Ride the wave. Hold steady. Keep calm and invest on. etc etc etc
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With the DOW at 18000 I think its fair to say some things were a little over bought
but at 16000 Its time to add to or establish new position
example——If you love apple at 130, why wouldn’t you buy it at 96 bucks a share
To me this a no brainer
I got into an oil stock and added to a regional bank and a utility
Still looking to spend my available cash over the next few months-
Absolutely AAPL is strong buy at these levels. Apple watch is proving to be more popular than people were saying and new iPhones coming out next month. I picked up some more shares, should have used limit orders to get it in the 90s but still got decent price around 105. Would not shock me to see it around 150 next year.
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