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DOW 17000… So close!!!
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Markets surging again early this AM as very positive news comes out on Moderna’s Covid vaccine effectiveness.
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Dow over 30k for the first time.
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Made up scenario.
you invest $400 a pay into a 403B. Should you buy 4 shares of a $100 fund. Or 8 shares of a $50 fund. both funds have similar investments, fees, and gains.-
mrs_dergon just had another invited talk as part of a (zoom) conference with Alan Beaulieu. He’s an economist who looks at futuristic trends. He is a regular speaker at one of my wife’s corporate events.
I got to listen in today.
Summary: All signs point to boom in the near term. Social trends, pandemic trends, economic indicators, employment, market cycle… everything is aligning for a positive economic environment.
(He still thinks we are on course for a debt-crisis driven great depression circa 2030 … but for now [i]Laissez les bons temps rouler[/i] ! )
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Thats been in the back of my mind forever. The bigger it gets the harder it falls.
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AAPL tops $100bn in quarterly revenue for the first time.
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/apple-aapl-earnings-q1-2021.html]https://www.cnbc.com/2021…-earnings-q1-2021.html[/link]
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I saw analyst predictions of $225. I say yes please.
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[h1]CEO Confidence At 17-Year High[/h1] [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/ceo-confidence-in-u-s-economic-outlook-reaches-17-year-high]Bloomberg[/link]
Corporate leaders are more upbeat about the U.S. economy than at any time in the past 17 years,
The Conference Board measure of CEO confidence, in collaboration with the Business Council, jumped to 73 in the first quarter. Thats up from 34 a year ago during the height of the pandemic and business closures. A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.CEOs enter 2021 historically upbeat, Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board.
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Well there was another big unemployment number. Are CEOs happy because theyve made $ by letting people go. Or maybe its because theyre still making millions.
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My 230% YoY bitcoin is going to keep going while the market degrades
thank you idiot Biden, keep stimmy please please please
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Quote from dergon
[h1]CEO Confidence At 17-Year High[/h1] [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/ceo-confidence-in-u-s-economic-outlook-reaches-17-year-high]Bloomberg[/link]
Corporate leaders are more upbeat about the U.S. economy than at any time in the past 17 years,
The Conference Board measure of CEO confidence, in collaboration with the Business Council, jumped to 73 in the first quarter. Thats up from 34 a year ago during the height of the pandemic and business closures. A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.CEOs enter 2021 historically upbeat, Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board.
Yes, they and the government helped in destroying all the small to medium size businesses and other people’s lives. Are you still buying anything these pols sell you? You guys are really dumb. It’s all about power and retribution.-
You owe me 1500$
Pay me
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[link=https://thehill.com/policy/finance/542192-dow-sets-new-record-as-nasdaq-sinks-into-correction]https://thehill.com/polic…-sinks-into-correction[/link]
[b]Dow sets new record as Nasdaq sinks into correction
[/b]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record high Monday as stocks of companies expected to benefit from the end of the pandemic soared while a tech selloff caused the Nasdaq to fall.
The Dow ended Monday with a gain of more than 300 points, rising 1 percent to close at 31,802.44 after hitting a new peak of 32,148.04 before the closing bell.
The Nasdaq fell 2.4 percent and the S&P 500 closed with a loss of 0.5 percent.
Mondays losses also put the Nasdaq into correction territory for 2021 a 10 percent decline from its 52-week high.
[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oecd-economy/vaccine-rollout-u-s-stimulus-boost-global-economic-outlook-oecd-idUSKBN2B112G]https://www.reuters.com/a…ook-oecd-idUSKBN2B112G[/link]
[b]OECD raises its global economic outlook (including the US)
[/b]
The world economy is set to rebound this year with 5.6% growth and expand 4.0% next year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its interim economic outlook.
That marked a sharp increase from its last outlook in early December, when the Paris-based policy forum forecast global growth of 4.2% this year and 3.7% next year.[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-ends-at-record-high-as-wall-street-rises-idUSKBN2B71BJ]https://www.reuters.com/a…et-rises-idUSKBN2B71BJ[/link]
[h1]S&P 500 Closes at record high[/h1] Wall Street climbed on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high, as investors awaited cues from the Federal Reserve this week amid caution over rising borrowing costs spurred by massive fiscal stimulus.
Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 173.64 points, or 0.53%, to 32,952.28, the S&P 500 gained 25.43 points, or 0.64%, to 3,968.77 and the Nasdaq Composite added 139.84 points, or 1.05%, to 13,459.71.
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BTC, another one of the most amazing predictions on the board. The losers will weep again, this time because even if they pound their chests with the “investments” there is no way out – the stock market nor the USD can last.
BTC is the only way out. -
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/21/business/stimulus-check-stock-market.html?smid=tw-share]https://www.nytimes.com/2…ket.html?smid=tw-share[/link]
Stimulus checks prompt a stock market buying spree.
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get 1/50th of a bitcoin.
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[h1]The Rise of Conservative Values Republican Mutual Funds[/h1]
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/partisan-investment-funds-grow-out-of-political-divides-11616751000?mod=politics_lead_pos5]Wall Street Journal[/link]: Values-based investing options for conservatives have lagged behind those available to investors concerned about climate change, diversity and animal rights. Now conservatives are taking a page from liberal investors when it comes to their escalating criticism of technology companies that have banned former President Donald Trump and others from their platforms.
The fund boycotts Facebook Inc., Apple Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and roughly 20 other companies that it views as overly progressive in their corporate politics.
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Maybe they can own gag if the my pillow guys company
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Conservative values? Boycott Facebook & Apple, etc because of their Lib values?
The fund boycotts [link=https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FB]Facebook[/link] Inc., [link=https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AAPL]Apple[/link] Inc., Google parent [link=https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/GOOG]Alphabet[/link] Inc. and roughly 20 other companies that it views as overly progressive in their corporate politics. There is no product for politically conservative people, Bill Flaig, the founder and chief executive of the funds suburban Washington management firm, Ridgeline Research, told The Wall Street Journals John McCormick. There is plenty of slicing and dicing for the other side.
What’s in the ETF portfolio?[h4]Investment Policy[/h4] The Fund seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary objective. Under normal circumstances, the Fund seeks to meet its investment objective by investing at least 80% of its net assets in equity securities of US companies that meet its politically conservative criteria.
Aren’t these “normal circumstances?”
Just look at top 10 holdings & tell me what’s wrong with the whole setup:
[attachment=0]
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[b]Bidens ‘First 100 Days’ Stock Market Best Since Eisenhower[/b]
[b] [/b]
So far in his young presidency, President Joe Biden has been one of the best friends the stock market has ever had, [link=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/bidens-100-day-stock-market-performance-is-the-hottest-going-back-to-the-1950s.html]CNBC[/link] reports.
Better, in fact, than any president before him going back to at least the 1950s and the Dwight Eisenhower administration, as the 46th chief executive has witnessed an unprecedented growth on Wall Street in his first 100 days in office.-
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[b]Stocks Off to Best Start for Presidential Term Since FDR[/b][/h1]
The stock market is set to close out President Bidens first 100 days in office on Thursday with its best start to a presidential term since the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt, the [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-are-off-to-best-start-to-a-presidential-term-since-great-depression-11619688780]Wall Street Journal[/link] reports.-
Economy grew 6.4% in the 1Q of this year!
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-economic-growth-first-quarter-2021-11619658605]https://www.wsj.com/artic…arter-2021-11619658605[/link]
U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter, expanding a consumer-led rebound from the pandemic.
The U.S. economy appears to have expanded rapidly in the first quarter, extending what economists project will be a robust, consumer-led recovery from the pandemic this year.
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-economic-growth-fourth-quarter-2020-11611802382?mod=article_inline]Output grew at a 4.3% rate in the fourth quarter[/link] of last year after rising at a 33.4% clip in the third. The rebound from a steep downturn last spring early in the pandemic was quicker than what many economists expected but still left the economy in a hole. For all of last year, the economy shrank by 2.4% when comparing fourth-quarter output to a year earlierthe first contraction since the 2007-09 recession.
In the first quarter more people received a Covid-19 vaccine, states and cities lifted business restrictions, and stimulus payments landed in bank accounts. [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/confidence-in-u-s-economy-approaches-pre-pandemic-level-11619541929?mod=article_inline]Consumer confidence rose in April[/link] to the highest level in 14 months, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
The U.S. economy is clearly in the nascent period of the recovery and headed for a robust expansion, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm. It is possible first-quarter output may have returned to pre-pandemic levels, he said.
That would mark one of the most remarkable turnarounds on record, given the severity of last years downturn. Just a year ago the pandemic pushed up the unemployment rate to a post-World War II high of 14.8%. The rate has since fallen to 6% as hiring accelerated. Worker filings for jobless benefits also have fallen to pandemic lows in recent weeks.-
I feel like that should be tempered because everything was down so much.
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As if the markets are rational. No, markets run on 2 emotions, abject panic and gold rush enthusiasm. Further, nowadays, many trades are not done by humans so much as computer algorithms that the programmers can’t explain. A reason why any change in the market moves in lemming lockstep regardless of the actual news.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
I feel like that should be tempered because everything was down so much.
True ….. but the same report also says we should be back at pre-pandemic GDP pretty soon too … Q2
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Interesting thought. Are we in a non-typical inflation. Prices are really inflated on a lot of things especially construction. It seems like its supply side issues. But also there is lots of demand. However, retailers arent bumping prices just to bump up the price. I saw something about Warren B says were in inflation. I kind of agree but Im not thinking its because people are buying more/demand.
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Quote from Frumious
As in housing? As in lumber prices?
You can blame Trumps tariff war of 20% with Canada as one reason.
[link]https://youtu.be/m_5MkGbXXKc[/link]
How the Pandemic Made Lumber America’s Hottest Commodity | WSJ[/h1]
Nice video explaining lumber prices escalation-
doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If the timber growers are flooding the market but the prices are skyrocketing. I was wanting to do some stuff at my house but I’m holding off. Also are we looking at the next housing collapse. They’re cutting in roads and building pulte houses like crazy on my golf course. It’s like $500k for a 2 bedroom with barely any land. The prices are just nuts. There’s no way the house is worth $500k.
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As in housing? As in lumber prices?
You can blame Trumps tariff war of 20% with Canada as one reason.
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[link=https://thehill.com/policy/finance/552628-dow-jones-reaches-35000-for-first-time]Dow Jones reaches 35,000 for first time[/link]
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Need a new thread. Dow 40k?
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S&p 500 record close 🙂
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html]https://www.cnbc.com/2021…pen-to-close-news.html[/link]
The S&P 500 rose to an all-time high on Thursday as investors shrugged off a key inflation report that showed a bigger-than-expected increase in price pressures.
The broad equity benchmark climbed nearly 0.5% to a record closing high of 4,239.18. The S&P 500 also hit an intraday record of 4,249.74, overtaking its May 7 high after the market traded sideways for a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 19.10 points, or less than 0.1%, to 34,466.24, while the Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.8% to 14,020.33.
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Inflation surges would typically cause a pull back because of fear of rising interest rates. The fed has made it clear that wont happen for awhile. They seem pretty confident this inflation will be short lived. Time to look for hedges against inflation? Typically that would be gold. GLD and GDX up nicely today.
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Quote from Thread Enhancer
Inflation surges would typically cause a pull back because of fear of rising interest rates. The fed has made it clear that wont happen for awhile. They seem pretty confident this inflation will be short lived. Time to look for hedges against inflation? Typically that would be gold. GLD and GDX up nicely today.
I had the morning off yesterday and spent a bunch of time listening to financial media (Bloomberg, CNBC, Marketplace)
As we looked to the CPI there seemed to be areas of consensus and are where there isn’t
…
1) pretty much everyone agreed that today’s inflation number would be big.
2) They disagree on whether the current inflation is transitory or the real deal
3) They mostly agree that we won’t know whether it is/was transitory until at least 2022 when supply chains and labor market irregularities get settled out.-
Those 3 points seem about right. I should probably have said the fed doesn’t “think” it will happen for awhile, probably into 2022 before they worry and do something about it. Keeping short term interest rates low should keep driving the market up until they give guidance the other way.
The question I keep asking myself is should I do something now as a hedge, just in case? In reality I already did. For the last few years I’ve been trying to keep a small percentage of my portfolio in GDX and individual gold stocks. Rebalance when it gets away for my portfolio design.-
Rough week for stocks.
Honestly, I kind of like a bit of a drop these days … take some of the froth out of it.
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[img]https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/sites/g/files/eyrktu156/files/styles/embedded_700/public/Q221_Feature_Inflation_Charts_1_%401x.jpg[/img]
Inflation between 2-4% looks to be the sweet spot for both equity and bond market performance.
[link=https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/is-higher-inflation-coming]https://www.schwab.com/re…igher-inflation-coming[/link]
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[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-.html]S&P 500 climbs to another record led by bank shares, notches its best week since February[/link]
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2nd quarter in the books …
[link=https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/06/30/stock-market-posts-second-best-first-half-in-23-years-with-sp-500-hitting-new-high/?sh=399f608a185a]https://www.forbes.com/si…-high/?sh=399f608a185a[/link]
S&P 500 closes at record …
Climbing 0.1% Wednesday, the S&P has jumped 16% this yearfaring much better than the index’s 7% decline during last year’s first six months and pulling off the second-best first-half performance since 1998, behind only 2019’s 17% gain.
After crashing last year, energy stocks continue to head up the index’s gains, with top-performer Marathon Oil up nearly 100%, while Diamondback Energy, Occidental Petroleum and Nucor have all jumped at least 78%; 6 of the S&P’s top 10 stocks this year are in the energy sector. -
Inflation surged in June at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years amid a burst in used vehicle costs and price increases in food and energy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year earlier, the largest jump since August 2008, just before the worst of the financial crisis. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 5% gain.
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/consumer-price-index-increases-5point4percent-in-june-vs-5percent-estimate.html]https://www.cnbc.com/2021…5percent-estimate.html[/link]-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-16/moderna-surges-as-s-p-500-inclusion-gives-vaccine-maker-a-boost?srnd=premium]Moderna Surges as S&P 500 Inclusion Boosts Vaccine Maker[/link]
The stock has skyrocketed this year, reaching $100 billion in value.
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[h2][b]U.S. Real Yields Hit Record Low[/b][/h2]
The real yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell further below zero on Monday as growing anxiety over the outlook for economic growth added fuel to a recent rally in bond markets, the [link=https://www.ft.com/content/71d6661d-7a62-4a5f-959b-4cb2f1e94d68]Financial Times[/link] reports.
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this is bad for pensions here which are now pegged to the 10-yr but they don’t seem to be limited in what they can invest in, nor what can be done with extra returns.
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Quote from dergon
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-16/moderna-surges-as-s-p-500-inclusion-gives-vaccine-maker-a-boost?srnd=premium]Moderna Surges as S&P 500 Inclusion Boosts Vaccine Maker[/link]
The stock has skyrocketed this year, reaching $100 billion in value.OMFG! The “rational market!” The “invisible Hand” that guides us.
The idiocy of the free market knows no bounds.
Moderna tanks. Why? It’s vaccine might be too good, that’s why! A 3rd booster dose might not be required for Moderna mRNA vaccine recipients! So SELL SELL SELL!
[link=https://www.barrons.com/articles/moderna-stock-covid-vaccine-booster-51631544133]https://www.barrons.com/a…ne-booster-51631544133[/link][link=https://www.barrons.com/quote/MRNA]Moderna[/link] stock, as well as shares of Covid vaccine makers [link=https://www.barrons.com/quote/BNTX]BioNTech[/link] and [link=https://www.barrons.com/quote/NVAX]Novavax[/link], were sliding after [link=https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673621020468.pdf]an article in the Lancet[/link] suggested that a booster shot wouldnt be necessary for most people.
In morning trading, Moderna (MRNA) stock has dropped 5.8%, while BioNTech (BNTX) had fallen 5.6%, and Novavax (NVAX) has declined 2.4%. [link=https://www.barrons.com/quote/PFE]Pfizer[/link] (PFE), BioNTechs partner, had slipped 2%. The [link=https://www.barrons.com/quote/SPX]S&P 500[/link] was up 0.1%.
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So much for that correction …
S&P 500 only 20pts off all-time high again.
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I think that people might have started taking some profits on technology. Which drove indexes down. It seems like it’s swinging back the other way. I like the small pull back. I was able to get a little more for a little less.
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S&P 500 rises to record close, posts 7th straight day of gains on better-than-expected earnings
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/20/…lose-news.html]https://www.cnbc.com/amp/…0/20/…lose-news.html[/link]
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