[btomba_77]

The fever dream continues…. this time from GW Bush’s cousin and previous Fox News election desk head [link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fnewsitems.substack.com%2Fp%2Fthe-clinton-moment%3Fr%3D33cij%26s%3Dr%26utm_campaign%3Dpost%26utm_medium%3Demail]John Ellis[/link]:
[h1]Its Hillarys Moment[/h1] The Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade creates the opening for Hillary Clinton to get out of stealth mode and start down the path toward declaring her candidacy for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.

Say what you will about Hilary Clinton, she is formidable and up to it. And whatever else she might be, whatever baggage she carries, she is an enduring champion of womens rights.

What the reversal of Roe v. Wade has put front and center, smack dab in the middle of the town square of American politics, is womens rights. Justice Alitos opinion has unleashed the fury of millions of American women, vast numbers of whom see it as judicial activism run amok and a brazen, unilateral attempt to reverse decades of hard-earned progress. That fury has yet to find its focus. Because it needs to, it will. I guarantee you that rallying behind Joe Biden will not be where it makes landfall.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

HRC been popping up lately on my TV screen.

[satyanar]

Politics is funny isnt it? HRC looking back must say if I knew then.

She really is the right candidate, without the baggage. Could she possibly shed it? 
 

[btomba_77]

[b]Pritzker, Newsom Boost Profiles Ahead of 2024[/b][/h1]  
 
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/pritzker-newsom-boost-profiles-as-many-democrats-look-beyond-biden-for-2024-11658664001?st=ujdm8uvy0pqc5cu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink]Wall Street Journal[/link]: Two prominent Democratic governors are expanding their national profile with political activity outside of their home states, moves that come as many Democratic voters look for alternatives to President Biden as the party standard-bearer in 2024.
 
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat running for re-election this year, has spent time away from his home state to rally Democrats in Maine, New Hampshire and most recently Florida, where he gave the keynote address at an annual party gala last week.
 
California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom earlier this month went on the airwaves in the state to attack Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, himself a potential presidential contender in 2024. Messrs. Newsom and Pritzker have said they wouldnt challenge Mr. Biden. Mr. Pritzkers aides have said his political travel is meant to support gubernatorial candidates.l

 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2F07%2F16%2Ftop-10-democratic-candidates-president-2024-ranked%2F%3Futm_campaign%3Dwp_main%26utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Dfacebook]https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit…ource=facebook[/link]
[h1]The top 10 Democratic candidates for president in 2024, ranked[/h1]
heres our latest list of the 10 most likely 2024 Democratic nominees. As usual, this list factors in both likelihood to run as well as likelihood to win if they did run:

10- AOC
9- Roy Cooper
8. Gretchen Whitmer
7. Gavin Newsom
6. Bernie Sanders
5. Elizabeth Warren
4. Amy Klobuchar
3. Kamala D. Harris
2. Pete Buttigieg

1 – joe Biden
 
( i can argue on the rankings here and there  … and I don’t think Biden will run again )
 

[satyanar]

Maybe the handicapping is marking down Gavin as unlikely to run but I would give him the most likely to win nod.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.newsweek.com/newsom-hardest-democrat-beat-2024-presidential-race-tpusa-straw-poll-1727456]Newsom Hardest Democrat to Beat in 2024 Presidential Race: TPUSA Straw Poll

[/link][img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYkKcfZVQAAHiBP?format=jpg&name=medium[/img]

Attendees at this weekend’s conservative [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/turning-point-usa]Turning Point USA[/link] (TPUSA) Student Action Summit believe that California Governor [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/gavin-newsom]Gavin Newsom[/link] would be the hardest Democratic candidate for a Republican to beat in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race, according to a new straw poll.
 
Just over 30 percent of attendees said Newsom would be the most formidable Democratic candidate while [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/michelle-obama]Michelle Obama[/link] came in second place with 13.6 percent, according to the poll, the results of which were first reported by [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/fox-news]Fox News[/link] on Sunday.
 
Hillary Clinton ranked third with 10.5 percent of attendees believing she’d be the top Democrat to beat while Senator [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/bernie-sanders]Bernie Sanders[/link] came in fourth at 10.3 percent. Nearly 8 percent of those surveyed selected Vice President [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/kamala-harris]Kamala Harris[/link], and only 4.4 percent said that President [link=https://www.newsweek.com/topic/joe-biden]Joe Biden[/link] would be the toughest Democratic opponent for a GOP challenger.

[/QUOTE]
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

I’m kind of surprised HRC wasn’t on that list.  I think she could lay the smack down on Trump on a debate stage.  Not that anyone couldn’t.
 
Like outsource to Sodexo or vote for Trump.  I’m picking Sodexo.

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Biden Preparing a 2024 Presidential Run[/b][/h1]  
President Joe Biden is preparing to launch his re-election bid in the months after Novembers midterm congressional elections, setting up a potential 2024 re-match with former President Donald Trump. [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/biden-primes-2024-run-eager-to-stop-trump-again-despite-doubts]Bloomberg[/link] reports.
 
Bidens resolve to mount a second White House bid is hardening even with polls showing most Democrats would prefer a candidate other than the 79-year-old president. But those close to Biden describe him as buoyed by recent legislative, economic and foreign policy victories and committed to again deny Trump a return to the Oval Office.
 
Allies say Bidens determination has grown amid revelations about Trump and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection, as well as the former presidents continued embrace by Republicans.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

seems like a terrible idea.  There’s enough of him on tape to make him at least look like he’s aging out of it.

[lynn.olsen3327]

Gavin has already checked out of his day job and wants to be President. He’ll poach Mayor Pete for VP.
 
Kamala will be pissed she gave up her cushy Senate job to be relegated to “teaching” one class at Stanford for 1.5 million.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://twitter.com/SecretaryPete/status/1563127004672966657]https://twitter.com/Secre…us/1563127004672966657[/link]
 
Pete Buttigieg is in New Hampshire (touting infrastructure)

[Unknown Member]

I think the only guy he can beat is trump

And even that is a possible

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Ftoday.yougov.com%2Ftopics%2Fpolitics%2Farticles-reports%2F2023%2F01%2F19%2Frepublicans-desantis-vs-trump-2024-hypothetical%3Futm_medium%3Dorganic_social%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_campaign%3DSM-2023-01-US-B2C-Politics]https://today.yougov.com/topics/poli…S-B2C-Politics[/link]

A good mid-term looks to have really brought home Dems to Biden

from only 30% wanting him to run again in July ’22 to 59% now.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fm_t95dWAAAtxGx?format=jpg&name=900×900[/img]

[satyanar]

I enjoy reading revived threads that I killed. Ive usually made a good point in the last post. 

[Unknown Member]

The biggest takeaway is a lot can happen in a year or 2

This time last year Biden was down and out

6 months ago inflation was rampant

Chances are next rear this time and next November things look a lot different than now

My feeling is the crazy republican house will overplay their hand

But what do I know- Im biased

[btomba_77]

[link=https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesAugust2022.pdf]https://polsci.umass.edu/…ToplinesAugust2022.pdf[/link]

Massachusetts Dem poll: 

Top candidates to be the Democratic nominee in 2024:

22% Biden

17% Buttigieg

15% Warren

12% Sanders

9% Harris

6% Ocasio-Cortez

5% H. Clinton

4%  Newsom

[ruszja]

Quote from dergon

[link=https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/ToplinesAugust2022.pdf]https://polsci.umass.edu/…ToplinesAugust2022.pdf[/link]

Massachusetts Dem poll: 

Top candidates to be the Democratic nominee in 2024:

22% Biden

17% Buttigieg

15% Warren

12% Sanders

9% Harris

6% Ocasio-Cortez

5% H. Clinton

4%  Newsom

The poll was lacking the option: ‘Literally anyone else’.

[btomba_77]

[h1]Why (and How) Biden Should Decline to Run Again[/h1] [b]The optimistic case for Joe Biden stepping away and setting up an open democratic primary in 2024.[/b]
[link=http://www.thebulwark.com/why-and-how-biden-should-decline-to-run-again]A.B. Stoddard[/link]:
 
This debate will burst into the open after the midterms no matter what the result. So Democrats should quietly make it clear to the White House now that waiting too long to make the decision could injure the partys chances of holding the presidency.
[hr] Biden should bless a spirited, open contest for the 2024 nomination that invites the entire Democratic coalition to engage in the process of repositioning the party for the future. That would be a very hard call to make. Harder still is that Biden should not endorse his vice president in such a race.
 
 
 
 
 
Relinquishing incumbency is a risk. Theres no doubt about that. Theres a reason sitting presidents are hard to beat. They have universal name ID. Everything they do is front-page news. They fly around on Air Force One. Also, sometimes primaries divide the party, rather than energizing it. (Theres a reason that the first task of every new president is to avoid a primary challenge come re-election time.)
 
But these are not normal times and Biden is the last American president from the Baby Boom generation. He is, by definition, standing at the generational changing of the guard. He could lean into that by celebrating the new Democratic party that is already emerging as the other Boomers in Democratic leadership positionsNancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders, Jim Clyburn, Steny Hoyer, Chuck Schumerbegin standing aside.
 
Joe Biden is an optimist so hed probably appreciate the glass-half-full scenario: that the Democratic party can unite after a robust primary that engages every part of its coalition. The nominee who emerges from such a debate would campaign against Trump (or his MAGA heir) to take the country in a new direction, making it both a change election and a referendum on Trumpism.
Going [i]back[/i] to a geriatric criminal madman loser who works harder for Vladimir Putin than us? Nobody wants that t-shirt. And even if the GOP nominee isnt Trump but a mini-Trump, Democrats can still campaign as change agents against the MAGA movement and their authoritarian socialists.

(posted for interested readers …not an endorsement)
 

[btomba_77]

hopes dashed ….

[b]Hillary Clinton won’t run for President[/b]

Hillary Clinton [link=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-not-running-for-president-interview-norah-odonnell/]told CBS News[/link] again said that she doesnt plan to run for president.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/3641659-why-buttigieg-is-sparking-2024-chatter/]Why Buttigieg is sparking 2024 chatter

[/link]

Who knows, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told Vox Medias Code Conference when asked last week about the idea of running for president again.
 
…
Buttigieg has been the public face of the bipartisan infrastructure bill President Biden signed into law in November, one of his earliest political wins that carried limping Democrats through tough times when other legislation was crumbling on Capitol Hill. That position allowed Buttigieg to move freely across the country, touching down in some of the same states he frequented during his presidential bid.
 
Hes been to New Hampshire and Nevada, critical early contests on the nominating calendar, as well as a handful of general election battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida and Minnesota for the administrations Building a Better America Tour.
 
…
 
 
Pete won Iowa, he came very close in New Hampshire, and immediately following the primary became a part of the Democratic Party infrastructure in a way that allowed him to crisscross the country on behalf of the Biden administration and be the deliverer of good news, said Caiazzo. And youre coming with checks.
 
 
[/QUOTE]

also tucked in at the end

“{Kamala Harris} is not going to freeze the field. I would say Im 90 percent certain he would still jump in and run against her. The crazy smart move would be for her to run and see if she can get him right away to run as VP so that they can clear the field right now.     ~anonymous Dem operative[/QUOTE]

I doubt Pete would bite on that one.
 

[btomba_77]

Mark Halperin on Smerconish today handicapping the 2024 presidential race, ranking the current likelihood of becoming the party nominee:

On the Democratic side:

1) Biden
2) Newsom
3) *other*
4) Harris

On the GOP side:

1) Trump
2)  Youngkin/Cruz tie
3) DeSantis
4) Big pile of longer shots like Pence, Pompeo, Haley.

just one guy’s opinion but fun for forum fodder.  

[kaldridgewv2211]

I dont see Newsom. Too much a California boy to resonate with say dems in Youngstown.

[btomba_77]

Dems warming back up to a Biden second term…. also looking at the preferences if he doesn’t run.

[link=https://morningconsult.com/2022/09/28/democrats-believe-biden-should-run-2024-primary-harris/]https://morningconsult.co…n-2024-primary-harris/[/link]

[link=https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/09/27200533/2209164_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_09-28-22_SH.pdf]Morning Consult/Politico survey

[/link]

[ul][*]According to the Sept. 23-25 survey, 28% of Democratic voters said they would vote for Harris in a hypothetical Democratic presidential primary without Biden on the ballot, [link=https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/12/14150147/2112073_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_SH.pdf]down from 33% in a December survey[/link].[*]Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has backing from 13% of Democratic voters for a 2024 bid, topping the highest level of support he garnered among potential Democratic primary voters during the 2020 nominating contest [link=https://morningconsult.com/2020/02/06/buttigieg-and-sanders-move-up-biden-slides-after-bungled-iowa-caucuses/]after his victory in the Iowa caucuses[/link]. Hes the only name other than Harris to notch double-digit support, with a quarter of Democratic voters (24%) unsure.[*]Next on the list are New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, at 8% and 7%, respectively, both virtually unchanged from December. Theyre followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whom 6% of Democrats said theyd support, up from 3% over that time frame. [/ul]
[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]Biden Is Totally Going to Run Again[/h1]  
[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/25/biden-run-president-again-2024/]Jonathan Capehart[/link]:

 [b]After my [link=https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/watch/president-biden-discusses-jan-6-committee-subpoenaing-donald-trump-and-calls-out-mega-maga-republicans-151264837820]interview[/link] with President Biden aired on MSNBC over the weekend, I got the same question over and over again: How is he?[/b]
 
Each time, it was asked in that skittish way one speaks when inquiring about someone they fear is in decline. Folks, listen to me. Biden is just fine. More than fine. In fact, after nearly 30 minutes with the president at Delaware State University in Dover, Del., on Friday, I came away with two overwhelming impressions: Biden is totally going to run for reelection in 2024. And he doesnt just like being president; he loves[i] [/i]the [i]job[/i] of president.
…

Sure, Biden is getting old. But the almost-octogenarian I interviewed was fit and eager to take on the decisions that land on a presidents desk. So, stop asking if Biden is okay. He very much is. But more damaging than the focus on his age is Democrats [link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-struggles-party-democrats-2024-poll/story?id=90427262]pining [/link]for another nominee in 2024. No doubt this kind of loose talk will ramp up after the midterms if Democrats get shellacked. Still, its the kind of chatter that does more to undermine the Democratic Party and president than anything Republicans can and will do.
 
Democrats have a strong bench of impressive and younger would-be presidents. I cant wait to see them on some future campaign trail. But it would behoove Democrats to circle the wagons around the Democrat who already has the job. Not as a firing squad, as they are wont to do, but as a sturdy wall of support. Hes going to need it.

[/QUOTE]
 

[ruszja]

Never mind the staring into space incidents, wandering off and confused answers. He is fine !
 
 

[alyaa.rifaie_129]

Clean up on aisle Biden – See the other day he told an audience he got the student loan forgiveness passed through Congress. 
 
[i]Biden told audience that they probably are aware, I just signed a law that is being challenged by Republicans.[/i]

[btomba_77]

Got to put Gretchen Whitmer on a future presidential run / VP pick list now.
 
Big win, helped retake the MI senate. Pro-choice delivers her a big win.
 
 

[alyaa.rifaie_129]

Eyeroll – she would be a terrible candidate. GOP needs to clean house push Trump and DeSantis to the side. Dems need to also – Whitmer not for a national office – time also to tell Beto and Stacy Abrams nice knowing you. Your star power is faded. Try a run for dog catcher. 

[kayla.meyer_144]

So who makes your ideal Democrat & what do they stand for is the answering question? A Republican Lite doesnt cut is as weve had Republican-lite since the 1980s & this is where its got us, deeper in dreck.
 
The problem IMO, has been the Republican policies since Reagan thats caused many of our problems. I dont consider guns & White Christian Nationalism as improving our country & solving our problems.

[satyanar]

Cool, sounds like you are inclined to “lean in” also.

[kayla.meyer_144]

I dont know what that means.
 
Who is an ideal Dem who gets Republicans to vote for them & what would they stand for is the question.

[satyanar]

Quote from Frumious

I dont know what that means.
[b][i]I just meant to say it sounded as you were considering the possibility of a moderate Dem candidate as a way to increase the chance of victory. Perhaps you chose not to read the thread I started this morning. That’s where the “lean in” come from. I understand if so.[/i][/b]
[i] [/i]
Who is an ideal Dem who gets Republicans to vote for them & what would they stand for is the question.
[b][i]I have not seen one yet, but I hope one is found. Ditto from the Republican side.[/i][/b]

 
 
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Quote from Frumious

I dont know what that means.

 

Killer
[b][i]I just meant to say it sounded as you were considering the possibility of a moderate Dem candidate as a way to increase the chance of victory. Perhaps you chose not to read the thread I started this morning. That’s where the “lean in” come from. I understand if so[/i][/b]

Quote from Frumious

 
Who is an ideal Dem who gets Republicans to vote for them & what would they stand for is the question.
 

Killer
[b][i]I have not seen one yet, but I hope one is found. Ditto from the Republican side.[/i][/b]

Precisely. You are posing how you are hunting the elusive jackalope. Tho its less that they dont exist as youd reject seeing one.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Ixrayu

 time also to tell Beto and Stacy Abrams nice knowing you. Your star power is faded. 

Losing twice in a row is generally the death knell for a political career.   Take a decade off in the private sector or behind-the-scenes politics …. see if the world changes again.
 
 
_________
 
I personally want Buttigieg for ’24 if Biden doesn’t run.   In ’28 if he does.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Quote from dergon

I personally want Buttigieg for ’24 if Biden doesn’t run.   In ’28 if he does.

I sure hope Dem candidates arent so desperate that Biden runs

[kayla.meyer_144]

Ah, the hunt for the elusive bassalope. The Dem who is everything a conservative Republican is looking for. Few have see it, none are believed when they report a sighting.
 
 

[satyanar]

You said Dem. I said Republicans have the same problem.

Dont worry its not your responsibility to find it. If the Dems dont however, they are likely to lose to a Republican other than Trump. Whoever it is will have to run in the issues; not fear of the end of democracy.

[satyanar]

Will I be happy either way? Only if the winner has a moderate approach. The way Biden promised.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Frumious

Ah, the hunt for the elusive bassalope. The Dem who is everything a conservative Republican is looking for. Few have see it, none are believed when they report a sighting.

In the 2020 cycle that was Tulsi Gabbard.  All my Republican friends were “wow! That’s the kind of Democrat I could vote for!”
 
But actual Democrats found her distasteful.  And as she attacked the party and its specific leaders more and more through the year she became despised.  Turns out that Democrats actually like Democratic policies and Democratic leaders.
 
 
________________
 
The days of broad cross-over appeal between the parties are gone.  Any Democrat who gains broad enough support to win a primary is going to be pro-choice, believe that climate change is real and that US government action is real and that we need to spend taxpayer money and pass laws to address it, that guns should be more regulated than they are now, that tax rates should be more progressive than they are now, that the healthcare system should have more governmental support (at the very least expanding the ACA), that we support same sex marrriage, that we should support NATO and our democratic allies over autocrats, etc, etc.
 
Yes, there are differences.  There is the “moderate” wing in both parties (from 2020 that’s Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg as the highest profile).  And the GOP has their moderate wing.  
 
There can be some softness and middle ground on *some* issues … like how Biden got to the middle on policing and criminal justice as opposed to “defund the police.”  But for the most part the base of both parties is on the opposite side of most issues.
 
Even moderate members of the opposite party still hold to the core beliefs of the party which are unacceptable to the opposite party under all but the most extreme circumstances (such as never-Trumpers voting D to save democracy)
 
_____________
 
So you need a strategy that counts on mobilizing the base maximally while simultaneously putting together a coalition that gets you enough of the middle to win key states and hence the electoral college.
 
There’s no cross-over appeal candidate emerging from either side…. not until the fundamental of our politics change.
 
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

[b]Turns out that Democrats actually like Democratic policies and Democratic leaders. [/b]
 
Yup. Ive lived through 40 years now of step-by-step right wing extremist Republican & Republican-lite policies & have seen the country turn radically worse because of them.
 
Podhoretz wrote. “The British political figure Oliver Cromwell once said about other British politicians who had overstayed their welcome and were ruining the country, ‘In the name of God, go!’

Enough. In the name of God & good sense, GO!
 

[satyanar]

Quote from dergon

Quote from Frumious

Ah, the hunt for the elusive bassalope. The Dem who is everything a conservative Republican is looking for. Few have see it, none are believed when they report a sighting.

In the 2020 cycle that was Tulsi Gabbard.  All my Republican friends were “wow! That’s the kind of Democrat I could vote for!”

But actual Democrats found her distasteful.  And as she attacked the party and its specific leaders more and more through the year she became despised.  Turns out that Democrats actually like Democratic policies and Democratic leaders.

________________

The days of broad cross-over appeal between the parties are gone.  [b]Any Democrat who gains broad enough support to win a primary is going to be pro-choice, believe that climate change is real and that US government action is real and that we need to spend taxpayer money and pass laws to address it, that guns should be more regulated than they are now, that tax rates should be more progressive than they are now, that the healthcare system should have more governmental support (at the very least expanding the ACA), that we support same sex marrriage, that we should support NATO and our democratic allies over autocrats, etc, etc[/b].

[b]Yes, there are differences.  There is the “moderate” wing in both parties (from 2020 that’s Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg as the highest profile).  And the GOP has their moderate wing.   [/b]

There can be some softness and middle ground on *some* issues … like how Biden got to the middle on policing and criminal justice as opposed to “defund the police.”  But for the most part the base of both parties is on the opposite side of most issues.

Even moderate members of the opposite party still hold to the core beliefs of the party which are unacceptable to the opposite party under all but the most extreme circumstances (such as never-Trumpers voting D to save democracy)

_____________

So you need a strategy that counts on mobilizing the base maximally while simultaneously putting together a coalition that gets you enough of the middle to win key states and hence the electoral college.

There’s no cross-over appeal candidate emerging from either side…. not until the fundamental of our politics change.

 
You just described the candidate that can win in a general election also. They will get independent support and even some moderate Republican votes if the Republican candidate is too far right. Was that so hard?

Hardly a unicorn, in fact its exactly what Biden promised to be. 

[kayla.meyer_144]

It is what Biden is, a dead center centrist.

[satyanar]

I’m not sure what you mean by that? “Dead” in the sense he is unelectable now? Or “Dead center”?
 
If he is truly unelectable it is because the Republicans won’t have Trump on the ticket as his foil, he looks and sounds like he’s senile (even if he isn’t) and he has moved away from the center he campaigned on.