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Redistricting after 2020 census and election
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/26/trump-decade-elections-471807]https://www.politico.com/…ecade-elections-471807[/link]
[h2]How Trump upended the race to control the House through 2030[/h2] [b]Both parties are working to make sense of Trump-era election results and how they could shape the next decade of congressional lines.[/b]
The 21-point swing toward Trump in the Miami district, which once appeared to be trending deep blue, epitomizes the chaotic, fast-changing political trends of the last four years, which also saw major metro areas from Atlanta to Orange County swing hard toward Democrats. Now, those big shifts are complicating life for both parties, as they try to figure out what those results really mean in preparation for the once-in-a-decade redistricting process.
Traditionally, state legislators and political mapmakers rely heavily on recent election results for clues about how communities will vote in the future baselines they use to gerrymander advantageous districts for their party. But the whiplash in Trump-era elections make drawing conclusions from those results more complicated this year. And both parties strategists know that if they make bad bets, drawing districts based on elections that were driven more by Trumps singular personality than by trends that will persist until 2030, those mistakes could swing control of the House against them over the next decade.If you think of American elections as a stock market, did we go through this kind of bubble? Kincaid said. And now, is the bubble burst and we’re going to go through a correction for a little while? Or are we kind of in this new kind of bear market for a little bit where we don’t really know where we’re heading next?
Democrats are grappling with the same questions. Since 2018, Democratic strategists have wondered whether they were renting or buying the suburban voters who fled Trump in states like New Jersey, Illinois and more, flipping the House during the last midterm. They wont have another election to test theories and figure it out before they have to compete in new districts next year.
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Crafting congressional seats is already a complicated process that weighs geography, population growth, the whims of state legislators and a wealth of political data stretching back decades. In the era of Trump, theres also a myriad of conflicting data points.
Just as in 2010, Republicans have the upper hand in redistricting, fully controlling the map-drawing process in 18 states. They will draw more districts than Democrats, and they have total control in the seat-rich states of Texas, Florida and North Carolina. But those same states are also brimming over with some of the most unpredictable demographics, including Latino voters and affluent suburban voters.[/QUOTE]
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124 Replies
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[ul][*][link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1366836649896914956]David Wasserman[/link] notes that Florida is poised to gain two House seats in redistricting. The current map has 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats, but with a state Supreme Court that has turned sharply right, Republicans might be even more aggressive in how they draw districts. At the extreme end, Wasserman thinks Republicans could attempt a 21 Republican to 8 Democrat gerrymander which could cost Democrats almost their entire House majority. [/ul]
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Hence that HR1 for the people act needs passed. Non-partisan redistricting panel draws the lines to be fair.
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I’m not a fan of the extreme gerrymandering out there but just for conversation sake, do you think the party in power every 10 years deserves some control of the districts in their states?
Both parties gerrymander. Just happens to be that Republicans had the bigger chance to do so in 2010 and the geography of their voting bloc is more favorable to gerrymandering.
There’s no truly fair way to do it and there’s a lengthy 538 article about the topic that describes how the process will always be unfair. In a broad sense, you either have a skew toward a wider geographical party (republicans) or you have a skew toward compact urban centers (democrats).
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no gerrymandering on either side. I live in Ohio 14th which is Dave joyce. It’s 93% white and almost every time if not everytime a republican wins. You can look at OH districts here. Jim Jordan’s is one of the worst.
[link]https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/OH/14[/link]-
I agree with no gerrymandering for either side. The problem is what the 538 article lays out and that’s how do you draw the lines then? They went through different scenarios that seem “fair” and none of them actually are…so it will end up being unfair one way or another depending upon how you draw the new lines.
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Quote from Cubsfan10
I agree with no gerrymandering for either side. The problem is what the 538 article lays out and that’s how do you draw the lines then? They went through different scenarios that seem “fair” and none of them actually are…so it will end up being unfair one way or another depending upon how you draw the new lines.
So my example. My district conveniently side steps Bedford/Maple heights areas where a lot of minority population might live. That would change the votes going to the GOP candidate. In OH I would say it’s designed to box the dems into bubbles. You concede some seats by doing that but you keep the majority of the red districts very red. I also think geography can play a roll. People in Cleveland probably don’t have the same the priorities as people in rural Ashtabula.
I like the idea of independent citizen commissions and not leaving it in the hands of politicians.-
Right. “cultural similarities” was one of the ways people have tried to re-draw more fair maps but these things change over time and don’t relieve much of the gerrymandering. The most popular idea is a strict map based upon population density – the “compact” model.
The issue at odds is what the purpose of the districts are…Are they to maximize political gain? Are they to encompass the most like-minded people? Are they to encompass the most diversified group of people? Are they to be the most “eye pleasing?”
You can see how this is more difficult and complex than just shouting “BAH stupid gerrymandering.” Not that you’re doing that but some people do.
“Independent commissions” will never be truly independent.-
Cleveland and Akron are packed into the same district. I can tell you that the rural people around Akron would prefer to go to Akron and not Cleveland for healthcare. We took over a hospital down that way. So why shouldn’t those communities be in the same district. The reason is the population centers are mostly democrats so they pack them all in while drawing the maps.
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Because it depends upon the accepted goal of what a district is supposed to be. The problem is that there is no accepted goal.
You could also say that suburb people like to stay in the suburbs so Cleveland and Akron should have rings that make up one district (donuts) and centers that make up others (holes). But that would be equally as silly as the current gerrymandering right?
The actual only fair way to do it would be to have a computer use 1. population density and 2. voter data and created as close to equal districts in each state using those two criteria while then changing them every 2 years. But you could see how that would lead to craziness with ever-changing districts too.
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Mid-Decade Redistrictings Saved Democrats’ Majority[/h1]
[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-mid-decade-redistrictings-saved-the-democratic-house-majority/]Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball[/link]: Though new congressional lines are typically put into effect for election years ending in 2, four states adopted new maps at later points during this last decade.
In North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Republican-friendly maps were thrown out mid-decade in favor of plans that were more amenable to Democrats.
If those pro-Republican maps were still in place, theres a good chance that House Republicans would be in the majority now. -
[h1][b]Chair of Colorado Redistricting Commission is a “Stop the Steal” Advocate[/b][/h1]
Danny Moore, the chairman of the Colorados independent redistricting commission, questioned the outcome of the 2020 presidential election on Facebook, calling it the Democrat steal and repeating the untrue assertion that Joe Biden did not get more votes than Donald Trump, the [link=https://gazette.com/news/redistricting-chairman-defends-facebook-posts-i-m-not-a-conspiracy-theorist/article_aaf1afd4-9237-11eb-b1b1-0b383ed1f655.html]Colorado Springs Gazette[/link] reports.
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[b]New Census Apportionment Counts[/b][/h1]
[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1386760864267649032]Dave Wasserman[/link] summarizes the electoral implications of the new U.S. Census:
[ul][*]States gaining one seat: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon[*]States gaining two seats: Texas[*]States losing one seat: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia [/ul]
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House seats broken down by final redistricting authority (vs. 2011):
– Republican: 187 (219)
– Democratic: 75 (44)
– Independent/bipartisan commission: 121 (88)
– Split control: 46 (77)
– At Large states: 6 (7)[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ez7icyDXIAM4hHT?format=jpg&name=large[/img]
[link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/2020-census-what-reapportionment-numbers-mean]https://cookpolitical.com…rtionment-numbers-mean[/link]
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Brutal, only 89 more people needed to be counted in the census for NY not to lose a seat…
[link=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ny-89-people-away-not-losing-congressional-seat]https://www.foxnews.com/p…ing-congressional-seat[/link]
Due to the decrease in the states population over the past decade, New Yorks delegation in the House will edge down from 27 to 26 seats, a sign of diminishing clout on the federal level for a state that held 45 House seats from 1933-1953 and retained the largest state delegation in the chamber until 1973.
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Quote from Nogred
Brutal, only 89 more people needed to be counted in the census for NY not to lose a seat…
[link=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ny-89-people-away-not-losing-congressional-seat]https://www.foxnews.com/p…ing-congressional-seat[/link]
Due to the decrease in the states population over the past decade, New Yorks delegation in the House will edge down from 27 to 26 seats, a sign of diminishing clout on the federal level for a state that held 45 House seats from 1933-1953 and retained the largest state delegation in the chamber until 1973.
You can bet that NYS will sue over this and trot out 90 people who were not counted last year. And because #orangemanbad!, they are probably going to win.
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Only 89 votes? NYS would be irresponsible for NOT suing & trying to maintain seat.
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If the GOP can keep recounting votes I don’t see why we can’t recount the census for 89 people. There’s probably 89 babies born in NYC on census day.
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If I was Cuomo I would sue just to redirect the news for a little while
Im fighting for New York works a lot better than anything else he has right now
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I think Cuomo is ahead of you there.
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/cuomo-seeks-legal-remedy-for-new-york-s-89-person-census-miss]https://www.bloomberg.com…-89-person-census-miss[/link]“New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said his office is exploring whether it can contest a U.S. Census Bureau tally that found the state would lose a congressional seat after coming in 89 residents short of the cutoff.
Do I think it was accurate to within 89? No, and were looking at legal options, Cuomo said at a press conference Tuesday.”
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**pats himself on the back **
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*grabs popcorn*
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[h1][b]Wisconsin Supreme Court Rejects GOPs Redistricting Plan[/b][/h1]
Wisconsin Supreme Court justices on Friday rejected a plan meant to ensure lawsuits over new legislative and congressional district boundaries go to them instead of federal judges, the [link=https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/14/wisconsin-supreme-court-rejects-republican-backed-redistricting-rules/5094291001/]Milwaukee Journal Sentinel[/link] reports.
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[link=https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/04/ohio-loses-a-congressional-seat-in-apportionment-from-census-2020-results.html]https://www.cleveland.com…nsus-2020-results.html[/link]
Ohio under full GOP control, but because of a voter initiative on redistricting, the one seat that Ohio lost from the census has a good chance at being Republican loss
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Please be Jimbo Jordan’s.
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[h1][b]Democrats Unilaterally Disarm on Redistricting[/b][/h1] [b]
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[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/21/democrats-redistricting-wars-495303]Politico[/link]: Democrats have gained control of state legislatures and governorships that have long been in charge of drawing new maps only to cede that authority, often to independent commissions tasked with drawing political boundaries free of partisan interference.
Supporters of these initiatives say its good governance to bar politicians from drawing districts for themselves and their party. But exasperated Democrats counter that it has left them hamstrung in the battle to hold the House, by diluting or negating their ability to gerrymander in the way Republicans plan to do in many red states. And with the House so closely divided, Democrats will need every last advantage to cling to their majority in 2022.
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[b]New York Redistricting May Be Key to House Majority[/b][/h1]
[link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/new-york-2021-redistricting-preview]Cook Political Report[/link]: New York may be the highest-stakes state of the entire 2022 redistricting cycle. Democrats hold a 19-8 lead in the Empire States House delegation.
But given the GOPs power to redraw other states like Florida and Texas, Democrats may have no choice but to gerrymander aggressively here to have any chance of holding the House majority no matter how brazen it ends up looking.
(we’ll see what happens … maybe it was too fast with that unilateral disarmament)-
Time for Republicans to carefully redraw those gerrymandered maps. The map is changing due in part to the pandemic as white collar workers move to the exurbs.
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-reshuffling-is-shifting-wealth-to-the-exurbs-11624636827]https://www.wsj.com/artic…the-exurbs-11624636827[/link]
White collar workers are trading their expensive lives in the nations most densely populated areas for cheaper, greener pastures. Online real estate company [link=https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/ZG]Zillow Group[/link][link=https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/ZG?mod=chiclets]ZG +3.40% [/link]calls it the Great Reshuffling.
These moves will reshape transportation, real estate and an emerging fixture of American life: the exurb.
Fringe outlying communities of major metropolitan regions were prized for their extreme privacy or more affordable housing before the pandemic, but were typically much less wealthy than the denser cities and affluent suburbs they surrounded.
The Great Reshuffling will likely make these far-flung exurbs richer and denser. The median household income across U.S. exurbs was $74,573 as of 2019, according to data from The American Communities Project. That likely ticked up over the last year as city dwellers in major job centers such as San Francisco and New York relocated to exurbs for the same or similar salaries. In 2019 the median household income in the San Francisco Bay Area was nearly $115,000 and in the New York metro area it was more than $83,000.
Why? These regions allow employees to be within commuting distance of cities [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-lets-more-employees-choose-full-time-remote-work-or-return-to-the-office-11623258049?mod=article_inline]as many firms ask workers to be back in the office for at least part of the work week[/link]. U.S. Postal Service data showed that between March and November of last year, 72% of those who filed for address changes in the Bay Area only [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bay-area-exodus-that-wasnt-11614960057?mod=article_inline]moved as far as another Bay Area county[/link].
The money stockpiled from leaving pricier areas, coupled with stimulus checks and enforced saving over the last year, are padding the bank accounts of these new movers. [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-tanked-the-economy-then-credit-scores-went-up-11603013402?mod=article_inline]Rising credit scores[/link] are, in turn, enabling other major purchases such as cars. The new arrivals in the exurbs [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-face-a-no-sharing-economy-11603710180?mod=article_inline]are finding they need their first or second automobile[/link] now that they are located in a more remote part of a metropolitan area. A January survey conducted by Engine Insights on behalf of Xperi DTS found 55% of millennials surveyed said car ownership was more important than ever.
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[b]GOP Faces Redistricting Challenges in Shifting Suburbs [/b]
The dynamic caused by a Democratic surge in the suburbs is not at work just in Georgia. In staunchly Republican Kansas, Democrats picked up a seat in 2018. Population growth in the affluent and higher educated suburbs of Kansas City could result in Republicans being forced to draw a district that favors Democrats, the [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-leaning-suburbs-pose-redistricting-challenge-for-gop-11625050801?mod=djemalertNEWS]Wall Street Journal[/link] reports.
Census and electoral data show similar patterns in Denver and Des Moines, Iowa, as well as in Columbus, Ohio, and North Carolinas Research Triangle metro. In all those communities, the counties have seen double-digit population growth and have college education rates high above the national average, which voting data shows tends to skew an area more Democratic.-
That could go in the “good news” thread dergon. 😉
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Census data for redistricting out today.
_____Cool resource page:
[link]https://redistricting.lls.edu/[/link]
[h1]All About Redistricting[/h1]
____________________Dave Wasserman: “NEW YORK: given what’s happening elsewhere in redistricting, it’s tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state’s new commission). I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread…”
[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1423655991967690753]https://twitter.com/Redis…us/1423655991967690753[/link]
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[link=https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/566631-supreme-court-decision-could-set-off-gerrymandering-arms-race][b]Supreme Court decision could set off gerrymandering ‘arms race'[/b]
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Now that the Supreme Court has officially retreated from the area, they’ve set off what will likely be an arms race between the parties to gerrymander to the fullest extent they can in the states where they hold control, said G. Michael Parsons, a scholar at New York University School of Law.
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The U.S. Supreme Court had the ability to do something about this in 2019. They not only refused, but they gave the politicians a green light and an unlimited speed limit as they head into this next redistricting cycle, Daley said.
The lawmakers who are drawing these lines right now know very well that they will now be able to get away with the most aggressive maps of their dreams.
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Legal experts expect much of the fighting will shift to state courts.
The constitutions of 30 states include some form of requirement that elections be free, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Those and similar provisions, at least in theory, could create avenues for challengers to sue over partisan gerrymandering. But in states where judiciaries that have been subject to, and in some cases shaped by, partisan pressure, courts may be hesitant to overrule a gerrymandered map.[/QUOTE]
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[h1][b]Census Data Not as Bad as Democrats Feared[/b][/h1]
Redistricting expert [link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1425874749188620291]David Wasserman[/link] has an early read on the U.S. Census data: Based on the strong urban and weaker rural numbers Im seeing, this is a [i]much[/i] more favorable Census count than minority advocacy groups and Democrats had feared.
[link=https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1425876571412471815]Nate Cohn[/link]: Its a pretty decent set of data for Democrats in redistricting.
[link=https://www.axios.com/census-data-release-diversity-redistricting-cities-2c211d58-661e-47ae-bde1-3725b19d892c.html?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all]Axios[/link]: Almost all of the countrys population growth occurred in large metro areas over the decade.________________________
[h1][b]New Jersey Democrats Get Tiebreaker Edge in Redistricting[/b][/h1]
[link=https://newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/justices-pick-wallace-as-congressional-redistricting-tiebreaker/]New Jersey Globe[/link]: The New Jersey Supreme Court has picked John Wallace as the tiebreaker for the Congressional Redistricting Commission, siding with the choice of Democrats for the post.
The tiebreaker vote could have national implications in President Joe Bidens midterm elections, where Republicans are just five seats away from controlling the U.S. House of Representatives.
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[b]How Screwed Is Adam Kinzinger?[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/25/adam-kinzinger-illinois-democrats-506861]Politico[/link]: Illinois lawmakers are on the verge of rolling out a new congressional map that will very likely gut Kinzingers exurban Chicago seat, leaving him with just a few bleak options for remaining in office next year.
The elimination of his district would force the veteran Republican congressman to choose between running in unfamiliar territory, possibly against another incumbent, or making a long shot run for governor or Senate in a blue state and that assumes Kinzinger could prevail in a GOP primary after spending the last year criticizing a former president who remains beloved by the base.-
How Trumpy is Illinois? He’d be DOA in OH. We’re only running the worst candidates here.
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[h1][b]New Census Numbers Biden County Growth, Trump County De-population [/b][/h1]
[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-america-lost-and-gained-population-could-throw-democrats-a-redistricting-lifeline/]Nathaniel Rakich[/link]: The good news for Democrats came in which parts of the country gained and lost population since the 2010 census. Despite the countrys overall population increasing by 7.4 percent, rural areas the reddest parts of the country have steadily lost residents over the past 10 years.
Overall, the average county that voted for Biden boosted its population by 3.4 percent between 2010 and 2020, while the average Trump county grew by just 0.2 percent. Strikingly, 370 out of the 538 Biden counties (69 percent) gained population, while 1,468 out of the 2,574 Trump counties (57 percent) lost residents.
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[link=https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/staff-congressional-1]https://redistricting.col…/staff-congressional-1[/link]
[link=https://www.denverpost.com/2021/09/03/colorado-commission-releases-new-congressional-map-proposal/]https://www.denverpost.co…essional-map-proposal/[/link]
Colorado redistricting map would put Lauren Boebert into Joe Neguse’s district.
gonna be in trouble there …This splits Boebert’s district into a D+6 district
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[b]Nebraska GOP Proposes Splitting Omaha District[/b][/h1]
Nebraska Republicans have proposed splitting Omaha between two congressional districts, turning one swing district into two safe Republican seats, the [link=https://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/senators-wrestle-over-republican-congressional-redistricting-plan-dividing-omaha/article_95f13946-0c17-5c25-a853-e04e0502bd3e.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1]Lincoln Journal Star[/link] reports.
That dramatic move could alter the political landscape of Nebraskas only swing congressional district, [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-election-results/]which handed an electoral vote[/link] to Democratic President Joe Biden last November and elected a Democratic congressman in 2014. -
FiiveThirtyEight redistricting tool is up. Can follow state-by-state: [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/]https://projects.fivethir…districting-2022-maps/[/link]
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[link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/oregon/]https://projects.fivethir…ting-2022-maps/oregon/[/link]
Oregon becomes first state to adopt new map
they got one more seat
new make-up likely 5D-1R-
Interesting exercise to educate about gerrymandering, gerrymander your own state:
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/27/us/politics/congressional-gerrymandering-redistricting-game-2022.html]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/27/us/politics/congressional-gerrymandering-redistricting-game-2022.html[/link]-
Democrats Make Their Biggest Redistricting Move:
Cook Political Report: The biggest redistricting weapon of 2022 has always been the Empire State, and Democrats are poised to finally use it. On Sunday, New York Democrats unveiled a gerrymander that could expand their lead in the delegation from 19D-8R to 22D-4R the largest single-state shift in the country.
Gov. Kathy Hochul has already said she supports using the redistricting process to give her party more seats.
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Wait, I thought the Republicans had already made it impossible for the Dems in 2022. Thats what DCD told me.
Nice to see the Dems have the biggest weapon
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[image]https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/FT_21.02.18_Redistricting_2.png[/image]
CA would be the biggest weapon …. but it’s under a commission-
I guess you know how the total numbers play out rather than the number of states?
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[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1489324231036964864]https://twitter.com/Redis…us/1489324231036964864[/link]
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on [link=https://twitter.com/CookPolitical]@CookPolitical[/link]’s 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they’re on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
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Thanks. Didnt think it would take a day and six hours.
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Poor DCD was despondent that all was lost based on gerrymandering. Glad to know the Dems will take the advantage. No excuses now.
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K.
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Doesnt this new turn of events make you happy DCD? You told me earlier there was no hope for the Dems in 2022 because of gerrymandering. Im glad this is in the Dems favor now.
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[b]New North Carolina Maps Ruled Unconstitutional[/b][/h1]
North Carolinas new political district maps are unconstitutional, the N.C. Supreme Court ruled Friday, the [link=https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article257975758.html]Raleigh News & Observer[/link] reports.
The maps, drawn by Republican lawmakers late last year, would have given GOP candidates a sizable advantage in elections throughout the next decade. Republican leaders argued in favor of the maps in court, saying redistricting is an inherently political process and that courts shouldnt get involved by banning partisan gerrymandering.
The ruling divided the court along party lines. All three Republican justices dissented and said they would have allowed the maps to stand.
But all four Democratic justices joined in the majority opinion, which struck down the maps for both the N.C. General Assembly and North Carolinas 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The justices ruled that the maps were skewed so far to the right that they violated the state constitution specifically that they are unconstitutional beyond a reasonable doubt under the free elections clause, the equal protection clause, the free speech clause and the freedom of assembly clause of North Carolinas constitution.
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[b][link=https://politicalwire.com/2021/09/28/republicans-play-it-safe-on-redistricting/]Republicans Play It Safe on Redistricting[/link][/b]
[/ul] The first redistricting proposals are coming in and while the maps are not final, they are an early indicator of how Republicans are approaching the redrawing process.
[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442617926943653889?s=20]David Wasserman[/link] notes that Republicans are showing surprising restraint in states like Georgia, Indiana, and Texas and focusing on incumbent protection instead of squeezing Democrats out of their districts.
It will be interesting to see if Republicans in Florida and North Carolina take the same path.
Many states where the GOP controls the redistricting process already have extreme gerrymanders. In addition, blue-trending suburbs are constraining the GOPs ability to create new seats.
But the most important question on redistricting is whether Democrats in states like Maryland, New York, and Illinois show the same restraint or whether they try to run up the score to defend their very slim majority in the House.
[/ul]
[/h4]If the first few states are any indication, Republicans are erring on the side of defensive gerrymanders (rather than offensive ones). FL could be a major exception.
Dems, on the other hand, are poised to play major offense in NY, IL and MD - and already have in OR.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 27, 2021
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[b][link=https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/574845-early-redistricting-plans-show-gop-retrenching-for-long-haul]Early redistricting plans show GOP retrenching for long haul
[/link][/b]
When Texas Republicans rolled out a proposal for congressional district lines that would likely give their party a nearly two-to-one edge for the next decade, a similar thought struck both Democrats and anti-gerrymandering advocates: It could have been worse.
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The goal, insiders and observers say, is to shore up as many potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents as possible for as long as possible, a strategy that would create a more durable base of representatives in Congress from which to grow a more lasting majority.
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Republicans are still benefitting from favorable maps they drew themselves after the 2010 midterm elections, which delivered what then-[link=https://thehill.com/people/barack-obama]President Obama[/link] called a thumping to his party. Anti-gerrymandering experts said that has allowed Republicans to lock in those gains for another decade, cognizant of the demographic and political changes that have taken place over the preceding ten years.
Republicans in places like Texas and Georgia are clearly afraid of the suburbs and their voters both because the suburbs have gotten more diverse and because Republicans seem to be worried that they may not get back the white suburban voters who have left them in recent years, Li said. If you are worried about having to neutralize a sizable block of voters then that eliminates your maneuverability and the number of offensive moves you can make.[/QUOTE]
