[scottgood421]

Quote from irayd8u

Kpack123, I think NYPHD definitly does not have a PHD in business

 
Troll post!
NYPhD’s arguments demonstrate financial literacy.

[Unknown Member]

NYPhD’s arguments demonstrate financial literacy.

Really, even though his point means absolutely nothing in reality?

If at closing a stock is priced at 40. Goes ex dividend for a 1 dollar dividend

And pre market the next day the stock is at 39

But at 9:31 am 1 minute after the bell ring the stock is back at 40 dollars

Why does that matter to me?

One could also say the stock was at 39 then raced up to 40, five minutes before the close so sne traders or trading programs can score a few quick cents per share

Either way it’s a wash to me.

I lose no capital gain a dividend

That’s stupid minutia that has no bearing on anything

His prior comment to me was

Any dividend is offset by a capital loss.

Explain to me how that is financially literate…….. I lose no capital when the stock goes back up minutes after trading and I gain a dividend

[Jonnycool]

lol you guys are funny ..
 
Couple of things. Yes, on the ex-div date stock price drops X amount. This actually happens. Yes, it is capital loss at that [b]exact [/b]moment. Will the stock price rally at the end of the day or week? Maybe – this is why you may or may not notice the drop on ex-div. If the company is solid the stock price will keep rising and you may not even notice the drop. And in this sense, if the company is successful in the [b]long run[/b] (read: decades) dividends will ‘create wealth.’
 
The whole crux of the issue here is stock picking. kpack believes his strategy of picking companies with increasing dividends outperforms the market. Others believe it’s luck and think tracking the index has the best risk/reward.
 
Move on with your lives people.
 

[Unknown Member]

A blip n the radar 4 times a year that last usually for less than 1 hr of trading time

How does that affect my bottom line?

Yep…… That’s what I thought

Useless minutia

[scottgood421]

Quote from kyte

lol you guys are funny ..

Couple of things. Yes, on the ex-div date stock price drops X amount. This actually happens. Yes, it is capital loss at that [b]exact [/b]moment. Will the stock price rally at the end of the day or week? Maybe – this is why you may or may not notice the drop on ex-div. If the company is solid the stock price will keep rising and you may not even notice the drop. And in this sense, if the company is successful in the [b]long run[/b] (read: decades) dividends will ‘create wealth.’

The whole crux of the issue here is stock picking. kpack believes his strategy of picking companies with increasing dividends outperforms the market. Others believe it’s luck and think tracking the index has the best risk/reward.

Move on with your lives people.

+1

[Unknown Member]

But now we have a guy saying that dividends aren’t part of your overall return?

Maybe they are illegal

[joshua.glaze_811]

I have to apologize to everyone. kpack123 is right and I am 100% wrong. I am so sorry.
I cannot believe that I have been so stupid all these years.
 
I will leverage myself 10x.  Buy any dividend stock before the dividend and then sell right after the dividend. I am guaranteed to make a killing. I will get the dividend and the stock price will not change. It’s genius.  I’m going to be rich rich rich……Minus that little bit of interest.  But soon I will have so much money that I will not have to borrow any.
 
[link=http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nrf/dividend-history]Northstar Realty Finance Corp. (NRF)[/link] has a dividend rate of 34.64%
[link=http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/crf/dividend-history]Cornerstone Strategic Return Fund, Inc. (The) (CRF)[/link] a rate of 18.30%

Thanks AM and kpack123 you really know what you are doing….  Again I apologize.
ps. please do not tell anyone. 
 
I only have one question, why doesn’t anyone else know about this? Just me and Kevin Trudeau.
But, for some reason, he doesn’t return my call lately.   

Quote from kpack123

 

NYPhD’s arguments demonstrate financial literacy.
Really, even though his point means absolutely nothing in reality?
If at closing a stock is priced at 40. Goes ex dividend for a 1 dollar dividend
And pre market the next day the stock is at 39
But at 9:31 am 1 minute after the bell ring the stock is back at 40 dollars
Why does that matter to me?
That’s stupid minutia that has no bearing on anything

His prior comment to me was
Any dividend is offset by a capital loss.
Explain to me how that is financially literate…….. I lose no capital when the stock goes back up minutes after trading and I gain a dividend

[Unknown Member]

Well maybe I should sell everything because after 15 yrs of getting dividends…….my stocks will be worth nothing because according to you the dividend is subtracted from the stock price and……OMG the stock never recovers

OMG all capital is sucked out me. I will have no principle left unless I buy a vanguard
Fund. OMG

Thanks for totally not commenting on my Duke Energy

[Unknown Member]

You confused a dividend with depreciation I guess

[joshua.glaze_811]

Quote from kpack123

You confused a dividend with depreciation I guess

That’s exactly right. I did do that. I am sorry.

[joshua.glaze_811]

You are right. I did not comment on Duke energy. I am sorry.  It does prove that when a stock pays a dividend, the stock price goes up.  There is no capital loss and the stock price goes up.  Thanks again for setting me straight.
 

Quote from kpack123

Well maybe I should sell everything because after 15 yrs of getting dividends…….my stocks will be worth nothing because according to you the dividend is subtracted from the stock price and……OMG the stock never recovers

OMG all capital is sucked out me. I will have no principle left unless I buy a vanguard
Fund. OMG

Thanks for totally not commenting on my Duke Energy

[Unknown Member]

I only have one question, why doesn’t anyone else know about this

To answer this question

It’s pretty much a Jeremey Seigle strategy

Ummmm he is a Wharton School professor

Probably won’t find him much writing Wikipedia articles

[Unknown Member]

In reply to NYPhD
I only have one question, why doesn’t anyone else know about this

To answer this question

It’s pretty much a Jeremey Seigle strategy

Ummmm he is a Wharton School professor

Probably won’t find him much writing Wikipedia articles

[btomba_77]

Quote from kpack123

It’s pretty much a Jeremey Seigle strategy

 
 The debate goes all the way to the top:
 
[link=http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/markets/2007-04-16-index-faceoff-usat_N.htm]http://usatoday30.usatoda…dex-faceoff-usat_N.htm[/link]
 
[b]Great Minds Don’t Think Alike About Index Funds:   John Bogle and Jeremy Siegel Debate Index Funds[/b]
 

Quote from Jeremy Seigle

 I remember when Yahoo went in (to the S&P 500) in December 1999 that it was already overpriced. I was holding a lot of Vanguard Index 500 fund and I said, Oh my God, what am I buying? Is there any way out of this? Thats when I started to think about alternative indices that might not overweight these stocks that we know that people in speculative bubbles will overweight.

 

Quote from Jack Bogle

Irrelevant, Id say, what weve earned in that short period of time. What is relevant is what the fund actually has delivered. Im not talking hypotheticals here. I ran into a real live investor in the fund, a charter investor, bought 1,000 shares for $15,000 when the underwriting took place in August 1976 That $15,000 is now worth $461,771. Thats a return of a little over 12%

 

Quote from Jeremy Seigle

[b]From 1963 to 1997[/b], (dividend strategies) had a cumulative outperformance, between 30%-40%. Then you had the tech bubble, perhaps the biggest bubble in history. Any value fund will greatly underperform in the bubble, and at the very peak of the bubble, when you look back, you found, presto, no advantage in value investing over growth investing. The two years between 1998 and 2000 were the worst two years for any value strategy, and when it popped, you had the best two, three, four years. That’s what these strategies do. When there’s a bubble, they will underperform, but after the bubble pops, they gain that back and more. Jack had a wonderful caveat: We can’t promise anything into the future. I’m speaking here of history. I think Jack is taking way too pessimistic a view, and I think a slanted view, on value investing.

 

Quote from Jack Bogle

[b]There’s nothing wrong[/b] [b] [/b]with investing with a value or a dividend focus. I would never claim never that value wins. The idea of the value index was to give a perfectly legitimate investment strategy to investors who were a little more conservative and wanted a little more income, and it’s worked just fine.
One of the problems, in my judgment, with value weighting in general and dividend weighting in particular, is that sometimes it wins and sometimes it doesn’t. I’ve been critical of this, what I call data mining in the period. You bring out a fund when it has proved itself and not when it has failed to prove itself.

 

Quote from Jeremy Seigle

[b]People should not try to time[/b] and trade the market. We want these to be long-term investments. There are some very excellent characteristics of these dividend-weighted funds. They are most resistant to the bear markets, which we thought was a very important characteristic for holders in equities, so they get a cushion on the downside. That’s where most of the outperformance comes. In bull markets you hold your own; in bear markets, you tend to make it up. And dividend-weighting gives the highest yield. We’re not saying dividends are the best for everyone, but we’re saying they have some very excellent characteristics.

 

Quote from Jack Bogle

What we found in our value index fund and our growth index fund (is that) during the bubble, money poured out of the value fund and into the growth fund. When we got to the bottom of the bear market, they poured out of the growth funds and into value funds. Investors are going to jump on these bandwagons after superior performance has been achieved, and in this case investors (are their) own worst enemy. It’s a dangerous weapon, I’ve compared it to the fine Purdy shotgun, made over in London. It’s great for big-game hunting, but, alas, great for suicide.

 

[Unknown Member]

Dergon

Thats a very good post

Caveat

That’s why I use a strategy of —– At least a 15 yr history of Consecutively increasing dividends

Key words- 15 yrs and Increasing yearly

[Unknown Member]

[link=http://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment-ebook/dp/B00GWSXX26/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1]http://www.amazon.com/Sto…X26/ref=dp_kinwstrp_1[/link]

Since you can’t find this type of stuff on Wikipedia. I will provide with a link

[joshua.glaze_811]

Thanks again.  Tomorrows the big day….
 

Quote from kpack123

[link=http://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment-ebook/dp/B00GWSXX26/ref=dp_kinw_strp_1]http://www.amazon.com/Sto…X26/ref=dp_kinwstrp_1[/link]

Since you can’t find this type of stuff on Wikipedia. I will provide with a link

[Unknown Member]

The problem is you are counting dividends as part of ur return. It’s easy to claim 15% annual return when 4% is not actually a return lol.

[Unknown Member]

What are you talking about? Why wouldn’t you count them as part of your return

Ex:

You buy 100 shares of stock jan 1st 10$ a share

Throughout the year it pays a 5% dividend—-50$ total

Dec 31 same year the stock price is 11$

So

Jan 1st you pay and it’s worth 1000$—— your brokerage statement says value of 1000

Dec 31 same year stock is 11$—–it’s worth 1100$

It pays a dividend of 50$

Your brokerage statement says value of 1150$

At the end of the year your return is 150$ or 15%

Something wrong with that math?

Why aren’t dividends part of your return? Of course they are part of any stocks return.

Dergon is right the average person needs to stick to index funds

Do you honestly think an index fund that also collects dividends excludes them from their total return?

A dollar is a dollar WTF

WOW

[Unknown Member]

The next thing I am going to read here is

Dividends are part of a liberal media conspiracy and their is pseudo scientific evidence that they are not real

[Unknown Member]

U have to be trolling, I applaud your efforts.

[Unknown Member]

[b]U have to be trolling, I applaud your efforts. [/b]
 
Ok have it your way
 
maybe you just don’t know what a dividend is.

[btomba_77]

I started doing some reading over the weekend.   I didn’t realize that Bogle versus Seigle feud was such a “thing”.   You can find discussion groups, newspaper articles etc all weighing in.
 
Since maybe I hadn’t been clear this little post from Greg Mankiw, Chairman of Economics at Harvard,  sums up my feelings pretty well.
 
[link=http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/08/siegel-vs-bogle-on-index-funds.html]http://gregmankiw.blogspo…le-on-index-funds.html[/link]
 

[b]
Siegel vs Bogle on Index Funds[/b][/h3]  
I am a fan of both Jeremy Siegel (Wharton economist and author of “Stocks for the Long Run”) and John Bogle (Vanguard founder and index fund pioneer). I am therefore fascinated by the intellectual and financial battle between them.
 
 
….
 
I am placing my bets with Bogle on this one. Bogle’s position has the virtue of an economic theory to back it up: the efficient markets hypothesis. The hypothesis is probably not exactly true, but it may be true enough to make it sensible for typical investors to follow its prescriptions.

By contrast, Siegel thinks markets are inefficient. But if that is so, why not advocate active money management? The answer, presumably, is that active money management has historically not done as well as passive management. But that fact seems to undermine the basic premise of the funds that Siegel is promoting.

Siegel’s position appears to be that active money managers aren’t smart enough to beat the market but his mechanical rule is. I am skeptical. The hubris that makes active management often fail may also infect economists who make up mechanical rules.

Finally, tax efficiency is important in taxable investment accounts. It is hard to beat the market, but it is easier to beat the IRS by a combination of (1) focusing on capital gains over dividends and (2) deferring capital gains realization via reduced portfolio turnover. Tax efficiency argues in favor of the traditional index funds that Bogle recommends.
 

[Unknown Member]

The tax argument the author makes is valid but it can be further watered down

Because the cap gain rate and dividend rate is the same the cap gain rate is nearly a wash.

The only real tax difference is you are being taxed yearly on the dividend in the dividend model and some of the funds may be more tax efficient than others.

But my understanding is the more tax efficient the fund the higher the fees so, count me as skeptical

So you take that for what it’s worth. My feelings are you are talking about a small difference in the big picture and I further cut into that by paying zero fees

I’m disappointed that Manikaw claims boggles model is based on economic theory and Seigles is not but gives nothing to back up his claim in support. In fact it’s quite amusing…..he admits bogles hypothesis to his theory is wrong and claims Seigle has none……. But basically he just doesn’t like Seigles theory because Seigles thoughts are every bit as much of a theory as Bogles…..quite amusing

Aside note—- manikaw is right winger and Seigle is not so I wonder if manikaws feeling are more ideological

Wasn’t Manikaw a G W Bush advisor who originally wanted to give the dividend tax break to corporations instead of individual

I suspect a little bias IMHO

[btomba_77]

The “relationship manager” from Schwab called today.  (He’s the guy they give for free advice if you keep your $$ and don’t leave 😉 ).
 
[size=”0″]The Schwab analysts are calling the correction coming.  They want their clients a) a bit heavy on cash and less into equities until into Q1 next year and b) out of Europe fast.[/size]
 
I usually just DCA and plow right through and that has always ended up working out okay.   I guess that’s the thing with listening to people… sometimes it gets on your head.
 
 
[size=”0″]
[/size]

[Unknown Member]

Dergon,
 
Probably. Took a position in CELG today, got tired of waiting.  Barring big bad news, plan to hold in 5-10 yrs minimum, we’ll see what the next few months bring, probably more choppy waters.

[Unknown Member]

Energy MLP’s getting crushed……time to bottom feed

[btomba_77]

Correction underway?

[kaldridgewv2211]

Quote from dergon

Correction underway?

One of the fed presidents came out and said there’s a disconnect between the market and the feds plans for interest rates.  It’s like they mention raising interest anything and the market tumbles but they seemingly can’t keep giving money away to banks either.

[kayla.meyer_144]

All the Capitalists fear losing the free handouts from the Government. But they bite while accepting the handout so that assuages their pride & capitalism cheer-leading.

[kaldridgewv2211]

in a way it’s like government sanctioned robbery.  Banks get the money for free, and then charge the customers interest.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Yes and no. Follow the AIG court case to see things were & are not so simple. So hanging the bankers would likely have meant all of us hanging together. Hostages.

We did bailout AIG under tougher terms & the case is the investors got bailed out with a dinghy instead of a yacht.

Capitalist Entitlement.

[pratapchandraari_713]

capitalists are the biggest cheerleaders for welfare, just the corporate kind.  
 
Any brokerages out there you guys like?  They all seem to suck and have random weird policies.   Interactive brokers offers the best features overall, i just don’t like that interface as much.   
 
Give me the good old days of cybertrader and datek….

[btomba_77]

I just always recommend the low-cost brokerage houses (Vanguard, Schwab, etc).   Most investors shouldn’t care too much about the ser interface since they shouldn’t be trading too frequently anyway, certainly not with any frequency that resembles active trading.
 
__
 
Anyway.  Not a bad year for Dergon.
 
Best performers:   AAPL and VNQ
 
Worst performers:  VDE and VNQI
 
 
Looking forward to 2015!

[pratapchandraari_713]

I can’t stand schwab.  Their market makers always scalp, the worst imho.
 
 

[erin.keane_378]

Are you offering investment advice? I’d like to see your series 7.

[joshua.glaze_811]

‘Cause the Trolls gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the Trollls gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate
Dergon, I’m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
Dergon shake it off, Dergon shake it off
 

Quote from phd90321

Are you offering investment advice? I’d like to see your series 7.

[btomba_77]

Quote from NYPhD

Trollls gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate ….

 
Indeed.

[erin.keane_378]

 Doctors. Ugh.

[erin.keane_378]

How many CANCERS did you miss while you were obsessing over the stock market on your work computer while tapping your feet to the Taylor Swift song playing in your head?

[joshua.glaze_811]

I never miss a beat
I’m lightning on my feet
 
‘Cause the trolls gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate
Baby, I’m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off
 
 

Quote from phd90321

How many CANCERS did you miss while you were obsessing over the stock market on your work computer while tapping your feet to the Taylor Swift song playing in your head?

[btomba_77]

Pretty crazy few weeks.

1400 point swing in the Dow Wednesday … Wow

[link=http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-turmoil-plagued-by-mini-flash-crashes-2014-10-15]http://www.marketwatch.co…ash-crashes-2014-10-15[/link]

Making planning my annual rebalancing tricky

[baeboorin_672]

Still happy about Apple +33% this year

[btomba_77]

Quote from irayd8u

Still happy about Apple +33% this year

Dead money for years to come 😉
 
 
__
 
Another big day in the market:
 
If we closed right now it would be an S&P all time high 🙂
 

[btomba_77]

DJIA  (+99.47 +0.56%)     [b]17,818.47[/b]
S&P 500  (+10.61  +0.52%)   [b]2,063.36[/b]

[Unknown Member]

Microsoft is up 60% the last year after being dead money since 2002

Watch Apple going ahead and hold it

You will be treading water for 10 yrs

Normal course of action for mature company

[Unknown Member]

If you bought Apple in sept of 2012 you’d be up 15% in 2 years today

If you buy on the dips you can probably make some money

Hold on to it and talk to me next year this time

[btomba_77]

Quote from kpack123

Hold on to it and talk to me next year this time

Will do.
 
 
As for today it just became the largest market-cap stock in history, surpassing $700 bn valuation.      At 119.65 that’s a pre-split $835/share.
 
But I’m a long hold so I definitely come back to you year end 2015. (and probably ’16, ’17, and ’18 too)
 

[joshua.glaze_811]

Truth is that it is hard not to own Apple if you own mutual funds.
I wonder if I own too much of certain stocks.
 
It’s in Nasdaq index… Large cap… Growth… etc.
 
 

Quote from kpack123

If you bought Apple in sept of 2012 you’d be up 15% in 2 years today

If you buy on the dips you can probably make some money

Hold on to it and talk to me next year this time

[kayla.meyer_144]

Funny, Apple has a good chance of breaking the $1 Trillion market cap & critics are still saying there’s no growth left to Apple.

[Unknown Member]

Insane that Apple is worth $700 billion with it’s made in China gadget business.

[baeboorin_672]

Had to sell my shares in Apple.  Baby is on the way [:)]

[btomba_77]

Quote from irayd8u

Had to sell my shares in Apple.  Baby is on the way [:)]

Well. You had a good run of it.
 
Now go put those profits to good use… congrats on the baby!
 

[joshua.glaze_811]

Because a Stuyvesant Senior Made Millions Picking Stocks. His Hedge Fund Opens as Soon As He Turns 18.
 
[link=http://nymag.com/news/articles/reasonstoloveny/2014/mohammed-islam-stock-trading/]http://nymag.com/news/art…d-islam-stock-trading/[/link]
 
Any comments?
—- he confirmed his net worth is in the high eight figures. 
 
I saw the story on the nypost yesterday.
I do know that there are high school students in the nyc specialized schools who do day trade.
 
[b]”Investing Style: [/b]My main markets now are Crude Oil futures and Gold futures”
Read more: [link=http://www.businessinsider.com/20-under-20-in-finance-2013-11?op=1#ixzz3LzSXlb9r]http://www.businessinsider.com/20-under-20-in-finance-2013-11?op=1#ixzz3LzSXlb9r[/link]
 
Hope he was recently short…those markets….

[Unknown Member]

I do not own a single stock mutual fund

Own some tax free municipal bond funds for diversification

Apple is a great company, it’s benefiting now from the stock split ……. Created an air of Apple is cheap

I’d sell it if I owned it now an consider buying it back 15-20% cheaper

I’ve seen this Rodeo before with Microsoft with Intel even with IBM…… All great companies but when companies mature their growth slows. The growth doesn’t go away, it just slows and the multiple adjusts

Just watch for the next couple years and see what happens

[kayla.meyer_144]

The next couple of years is the question, yes. But the arguments that Apple is long past its prime or whether it ever had a prime or that it is not a “serious” company has been constant since the 1980’s. Michael Dell even stated the company should be shut down & whatever $$$ were left in the coffers should be returned to the investors. Only a few short months ago many “advisors” were predicting that growth for Apple was long past, that Samsung was out-innovating Apple, that Apple would fail in China, that no one would buy the iPhone 6. Or any of their computers. Except Apple is selling a lot of their products.
 
I think Apple still has a bit of growth ahead of it. When they become stodgy & have no new anything like Microsoft, I’ll reconsider holding my shares. In the meantime is’s a nice retirement nest egg.

[Unknown Member]

Apple is a great company.

[btomba_77]

Quote from kpack123

Apple is a great company.

Quote from Frumious

The next couple of years is the question, yes. 

I think Apple still has a bit of growth ahead of it. When they become stodgy & have no new anything like Microsoft, I’ll reconsider holding my shares. In the meantime is’s a nice retirement nest egg.

 
 
Price targets into 2015 are being generally upward adjusted to the $130-135 range.   That’s another 10-15% on top of a 2014 45% run while estimates for the S&P overall are sitting more in the 8-10% range for next year.
 
____
 
The problem with the “buy the dips” strategy is you have to hold cash and wait for the dip.   If you sell AAPL at 120 and say you’ll only buy it again after it closes at 95 you might be sitting in cash for years  and missing a run. Then there is also the “when is it too high” side of the equation.  If you sold when AAPL  returned to its all time high this summer because “it had peaked”  you would be in cash and have missed another 20% run through the Fall.      That’s the problem with attempted market timing.  It might work … it might not.  
 
And that’s not specific to Apple, Inc.   It is regarding all equities/markets in general.
 
 

[Unknown Member]

My only success of buying/selling dips and highs has been on companies with relatively lie betas

Most of these I have followed for years and they tend to be a little cyclical

It’s not a perfect strategy

I usually have a cash in my IRA available to do this a couple times a year and pick up 5-8 grand when I do it

Mostly it’s buying on dips and having a standing sell order when it hits a certain price

[btomba_77]

*nods* I get that. A little big of a “play”.
 
 
 
Apple is my only individual stock (except for the 25 shares of Pfizer my dad gave me on college graduation).      Given it’s outperform on the market this year it is just slightly over 1% of my portfolio.
 
But because I bought it I watch it with disproportionate interest relative to its value in my account. 🙂 

[btomba_77]

S&P 500 at time of OP = 1400.00
 
S&P at COB today:  2078.54
 
 
 
 
20 months of work a near 50% return.   Not bad 🙂

[btomba_77]

Last two days of trading in 2014.
 
 
Looks like 3 consecutive years of double digit gains.   First time since the ’90s.
 
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

So much for those “job killing” policies of Obama’s.

[erin.keane_378]

FYI That story about the Stuyvesant student proved to be a TOTAL hoax. Pretty much every hedge fund guy I know said it was a prank when they first saw the article.
 
See: [link=http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/nyregion/riches-to-rags-for-new-york-teenager-as-a-story-falls-apart.html?_r=0]http://www.nytimes.com/20…-falls-apart.html?_r=0[/link]

[joshua.glaze_811]

Thanks for taking your time to set me straight…. I really appreciate it. I always thought that it was true.
If I can ever repay the favor, let me know.
 
Thank all your “hedge fund guys” also. I’m glad that they TOTALLY took the time to talk to you about it.
 
Looking forward to your important contributions to the AM forum. Thank you very much for taking time to participate.
 

Quote from phd90321

FYI That story about the Stuyvesant student proved to be a TOTAL hoax. Pretty much every hedge fund guy I know said it was a prank when they first saw the article.

See: [link=http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/nyregion/riches-to-rags-for-new-york-teenager-as-a-story-falls-apart.html?_r=0]http://www.nytimes.com/20…-falls-apart.html?_r=0[/link]

[janecreeve_520]

who cares what a “hedge fund guy” said? – 
 
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-08/hedge-funds-trail-stocks-for-fifth-year-with-7-4-return.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…r-with-7-4-return.html[/link]
 
aren’ t they supposed to be good at investing or something?
 

 

[btomba_77]

It seems like we’re repeating the “4-5% dip with a quick rebound to follow” again.
 
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

can’t help but think there’s got to be a larger downturn at some point.  Seems like all the shadow banking is still going on “Market Making” and it more places than just the US.  The DJIA has climbed and climbed all the way from the 6.5k mark.   

[btomba_77]

[link=http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-inc-aapl-sets-earnings-record-745-million-iphones-sold-18b-profit-1796912]http://www.ibtimes.com/ap…old-18b-profit-1796912[/link]
 
[b]
[h1]Apple Inc. (AAPL) Sets Earnings Record With 74.5 Million iPhones Sold, $18B Profit[/b][/h1] Record sales, my friends.
 
 
AAPL up 8% in the pre-market 🙂

[Unknown Member]

Sell on the pop ups

Buy on the dips if you live it

Be interesting what happens next 2 quarters. The I phone 6 and I pads big for Xmas so this wasn’t unexpected

But seriously who wants an Apple watch?

[btomba_77]

Mrs dergon wants one …. Badly

[Unknown Member]

Seriously?

I must be behind the curve on this one

I think the Apple watch is the dumbest most impractical idea they’ve had

Maybe I just don’t get it

[kaldridgewv2211]

there were recent reports that the watch itself only last two hours under actual use, so I’m not sure it’s the best idea or at least doesn’t have the right battery yet.

[Unknown Member]

I just can’t see wanting to be able to make phone calls from a watch

Like I said maybe I’m just archaic and behind the times but man I’m betting this watch is a major dud

[kaldridgewv2211]

me either.  I prefer features like heart rate monitors and stuff like that for tracking work outs.  I use a Polar, it’d be nice to use something without a chest strap.

[joshua.glaze_811]

[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/jobless-claims-in-u-s-plunge-to-15-year-low-in-holiday-week]Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunge to 15-Year Low in Holiday Week[/link][/h1]  
Bounce?
 

[Unknown Member]

The funny thing about Apple products

I have ruined at least 10 iPods by sweating on them during workouts

Are they going to make this waterproof?

I doubt it

[btomba_77]

AAPL does a seal with First Solar and jumps 2% today.
 
Becomes the first company ever to make a $700bn market cap.
 
[link=http://news.morningstar.com/all/market-watch/TDJNMW20150210437/update-apple-becomes-first-700-billion-company.aspx]http://news.morningstar.c…0-billion-company.aspx[/link]

[btomba_77]

[link=http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/13/us-markets-stocks-idUSKBN0LH1C720150213]http://www.reuters.com/ar…-idUSKBN0LH1C720150213[/link]
 
S&P closes at another all time high

[btomba_77]

AAPL will join the Dow, replacing AT&T.
 
[link=http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-joins-the-dow-2015-3]http://www.businessinside…e-joins-the-dow-2015-3[/link]
 
Watch for Apple to transition from growth tech to one of those big dividend growers over the next 5 years.

[pratapchandraari_713]

Quote from dergon

AAPL will join the Dow, replacing AT&T.

[link=http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-joins-the-dow-2015-3]http://www.businessinside…e-joins-the-dow-2015-3[/link]

Watch for Apple to transition from growth tech to one of those big dividend growers over the next 5 years.

 
 
blahhh, it’s gotten so big, that the bigger it gets, the less of a multiple it deserves.   I think analysts are going to use the huge ipad drop off and any watch launch glitches to keep it around this level for the next few months.  I don’t know, I hate to be bearish on appl, i want to say that it will outperform the S & P and such; but its just that EVERYONE OWNS IT NOW….    

[btomba_77]

Time to start thinking of AAPL more like a BLue Chip than a growth company.   They’ll make lots of money, give a nice dividend, show modest growth, weather a downturn easily, operate profitable despite a bad economy, etc.     

[Unknown Member]

Hmmmmmmmmm

Sounds familiar

[btomba_77]

Quote from kpack123

Hmmmmmmmmm

Sounds familiar

 
Similar to what I said 3 years ago? 🙂
 

Quote from kpack123

 

Apple can’t continue to grow at their prior pace 

 
 

Quote from Dergon2012

But they can continue to make a crapload of $$$$ if they keepp doing the right things.  Maybe AAPL transforms into one of those continuously increasing dividend stocks you like. Maybe in 2025 AAPL looks more like COKE  
  

[Unknown Member]

Yes Apple may transform not that for sure

What I worry about with Apple is

When the straight up arrow growth starts to flatten a bit, investors won’t be as impressed and it’s price will stagnate for years

Doesn’t mean it’s a bad company just from an investment standpoint dead money

If you look back at other giants intel oracle Microsoft IBM You will see this happen every time

It’s part of the maturation process

Intel and Microsoft were basically dead money for 10-12 yrs until the last year

I think Apple the same price wise. I suspect they grow their dividend though which is good

[btomba_77]

[IMG]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/150306123642-bull-market-6-years-780×439.jpg[/IMG]

Happy 6th Birthday, Bull Market.

Look at how big you’ve gotten!
 
 
 
____
 
____
I like to think back to 3 days your birthday and remember this, the worst timed op-ed in history

[url]http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123629969453946717[/url]

March 6, 2009: [b]Obama’s Radicalism is Killing the Dow[/b]

[suyanebenevides_151]

LOL, good stuff Dergon

[Unknown Member]

Mr. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President George H.W. Bush.

Hahahahahahahahaha

[joshua.glaze_811]

[link=http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-fall-1-dow-off-141846778.html]Stocks plunge 1.5% amid dollar pressure; Dow tumbles 300 points[/link][/h3]  
It was the Dukes!!! It was the Dukes!!!
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

Makes sense. Strong dollar should buy more including stocks

[btomba_77]

[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/what-if-apple-had-been-chosen-for-dow-in-2008-chart-of-the-day]http://www.bloomberg.com/…-2008-chart-of-the-day[/link]
 
 
Cute little thing in Bloomberg.  [i]If[/i] Apple had entered the Dow in 2008 instead of BoA, the DJIA would currently be over 22,000.  🙂

[kaldridgewv2211]

gotta love the market.  It drops in anticipation of fed remarks, and then the DOW gained 250 after they signal a possible rate increase.  I guess maybe the markets can take a small increase.

[btomba_77]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

gotta love the market.  It drops in anticipation of fed remarks, and then the DOW gained 250 after they signal a possible rate increase.  I guess maybe the markets can take a small increase.

I was going to post in this thread today too — but about a different thing you’re interested in.
 
Looks like the Feds are considering revoking settlement agreements on currency manipulation due to ongoing bad behavior (a violation of settlement terms)
 
 
 
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/banks-said-to-risk-old-libor-charges-in-currency-rigging-probes]http://www.bloomberg.com/…urrency-rigging-probes[/link]
 

U.S. prosecutors investigating currency manipulation are considering revoking years-old settlements and prosecuting banks for rigging interest rates, according to people familiar with the matter.
 
The Justice Department is weighing whether evidence of wrongdoing in currency trading means banks violated old deals resolving probes into the rigging of benchmark interest rates, said two people, who asked not to be identified because final decisions havent been made.
 
Barclays Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS Group AG, which are operating under such agreements from the interest-rate case, are among banks being investigated in the currency case. The Justice Department is separately scrutinizing whether HSBC Holdings Plcs currency-trading practices violated a 2012 agreement settling a money-laundering probe, another person familiar with the matter said.
 
The Justice Department can tear up the deals and charge the banks if it finds they committed any crime after they were negotiated.

 

[baeboorin_672]

Hoping my once Bear stock keeps up its recent bull run.  Will sell if it gains another 6$ a share.  YTD it is up 41% [:)]

[Unknown Member]

Energy sector related stocks looking tempting at these levels. 
HAL
RDS
XOM
CHK  
NE – ha fantasy dividend on this one
 

[btomba_77]

Quote from macrophallus

Energy sector related stocks looking tempting at these levels. 
HAL
RDS
XOM
CHK  
NE – ha fantasy dividend on this one

 
Have a small holding of VDE   ( holdings XOM, CVX, SLB, COP, KMI, OXY, EOG, PSX, APC, HAL) .  It’s taken a pounding of late but decided to add to to it mid-month March.    We’ll see…. i’m still long energy.

[Unknown Member]

I think we will see Halliburton get a little cheaper

I’ll buy some at 35 and more if it falls below 30-31

[Unknown Member]

No one is drilling new wells at these prices

[Unknown Member]

I think that’s a good call on HAL. Very solid company long-term but probably will get a bit cheaper.
 

[Unknown Member]

I’m gonna take a big position in AAPL on Monday morning.  Sitting on $180 billion in cash….. that boggles the mind…… lots of pressure to turn some of that into shareholder value.   Forward P/E ratio is below that of the S&P 500 as well. 

[kaldridgewv2211]

I would’ve thought they had more than $180 billion.  On the energy topic, FSESX looks interesting.  Got hammered down, pays dividend, looks to have assets in quality companies.

[btomba_77]

Well, 2015 Q1 is in the books.
 
S&P 500 up … but barely … a 0.5% increase.  Market down 3% for month of March.
 
 
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

I cant stand some of the headlines you see
 
[link=http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ouch-job-creation-big-letdown-in-march/ar-AAaorCu]http://www.msn.com/en-us/…wn-in-march/ar-AAaorCu[/link]
 
“The sputtering U.S. economy created just 126,000 jobs in March as bad weather, weak consumer spending and flailing corporate profits resulted in the worst report since 2012.”
 
the economy hardly seems sputtering, profits aren’t flailing, and it’s 100k+ jobs to the positive.

[Unknown Member]

Yes too much gloom on TV IMO. I will be buying on any dips.

[Unknown Member]

OIL ETFs such as USO and DBO are worth watching.  While oil prices maybe suppressed for a while, the lows these ETFs are at is very tempting.

[Unknown Member]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

I cant stand some of the headlines you see

[link=http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ouch-job-creation-big-letdown-in-march/ar-AAaorCu]http://www.msn.com/en-us/…wn-in-march/ar-AAaorCu[/link]

"The sputtering U.S. economy created just 126,000 jobs in March as bad weather, weak consumer spending and flailing corporate profits resulted in the worst report since 2012."

the economy hardly seems sputtering, profits aren’t flailing, and it’s 100k+ jobs to the positive.