[ruszja]

I hope the dems go full-on powergrab during the coming 18 months. Open borders, Betos gun grab and jack up taxes on the middle class. I mean you gotta make hay while the sun is out, right ?

[kayla.meyer_144]

“Open” borders will never happen, however immigration reform will be broadcast to the Right-wing bubble as “open borders.”
 
Guns will never be confiscated but the fear of such will be amped up to a scream that it is inevitable. After all, the primary purpose of the 2nd Amendment was to allow the violent overthrow of the US government and we can’t allow Democrats to close off that democratic option.
 
Taxes will not be jacked up on the middle class unless “middle” is redefined to  include those earning $1 mil/year.
 
I do predict and we are seeing the rise of the zombie argument now, that Republicans will scream about spending that assists people after their spendthrift ways of giveaways to corporations and the already affluent. Nothing like a reformed someone to turn puritanical. Making American Kansas again (sex toys, anyone?). At least until the next Republican comes along.

[btomba_77]

Quote from fw

I hope the dems go full-on powergrab during the coming 18 months. Open borders, Betos gun grab and jack up taxes on the middle class. I mean you gotta make hay while the sun is out, right ?

Not in a 50/50 Senate….
 
Even if the left wants to (they do), there is no way forward on any of that stuff.
 
Manchin and Sinema hard no on filibuster changes.
 
That leaves bills that won’t get GOP blockade and/or can go through reconciliation.
 
Guns? No
Border? Only as part of comprehensive reform that Republicans let get to a floor vote.
 
Trump tax cut repeal? Probably …as part of reconciliation … but with a healthy dose of the left wing populist give-aways to soften the blow.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Even if Democrats had a 60+ filibuster-proof majority, they would not try any of the above as they make no sense or basis in reality.
 
Taxing the middle class as we are in a pandemic & trying to get Federal relief to the tune of $2 trillion dollars? That only makes sense on right-wing media.
 
Open borders? Another fever dream on right-wing media.
 
Confiscate guns? The 200°+ fever of the right. 
 
Only happens on Fox and their ilk, notwithstanding Beto’s campaign rah-rah BS about military-designed weapons.

[Unknown Member]

they make no sense or basis in reality.

Lol, yeah logic and reason are what fuels politicians

[kayla.meyer_144]

Yes, “logic” and “reason” like Democratic pedophiles run out of pizza parlors in cahoots with shape-shifting lizard people or a stolen election by the likes of Pence and all those Republican governors and state election officials.
 
Uh-huh. Yes, the Democrats are at fault. The lack of evidence proves it. Proves everything. As your friend, Rudolph Giuliani said, “Truth isn’t truth.” Or Kellyanne’s “alternate facts”

[Unknown Member]

Where in my statement did you see the word democrats?

[kayla.meyer_144]

[size=”0″]You were talking about Republicans then.[/size]
 
[size=”0″]Sorry. Yes, they are irrational.[/size]

[ruszja]

Quote from Frumious

Even if Democrats had a 60+ filibuster-proof majority, they would not try any of the above as they make no sense or basis in reality.

Taxing the middle class as we are in a pandemic & trying to get Federal relief to the tune of $2 trillion dollars? That only makes sense on right-wing media.

Open borders? Another fever dream on right-wing media.

Confiscate guns? The 200°+ fever of the right. 

Only happens on Fox and their ilk, notwithstanding Beto’s campaign rah-rah BS about military-designed weapons.

 
So all those things that they are saying they are gonna do, you are now telling me that they are not going to do any of that ?
 
Gotta give the trumpster one thing. He promised crazy shit, and he did crazy shit. 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Who? Biden? Harris? Pelosi? Schumer? 
 
They promised what exactly? Confiscate guns? Where? Who? Beto? Uh, what position does Beto have in this administration? Who else promised to confiscate guns from the populace?
 
[size=”0″]Raise taxes on the middle class? Where? When?[/size]
 
Borderless borders anyone could cross anytime, anywhere? Where? When?
 
I don’t watch that channel or read those media for that information. Please post links.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]Damaged GOP Image Gives Democrats Strong Advantage[/h1]  
 
[link=https://news.gallup.com/poll/329561/gop-image-slides-giving-democrats-strong-advantage.aspx]Gallup[/link]: Americans opinions of the Republican Party have worsened in recent months, with 37% now saying they have a favorable view of the party, down from 43% in November. This decline, along with a slight increase in the Democratic Partys positive ratings, to 48%, gives the Democrats a rare double-digit advantage in favorability.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]How Republicans Could Tilt the Battle for House Control through Redistricting[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/02/democrats-need-hr-1-and-new-vra-protect-party/617987/]Ron Brownstein[/link]: Democrats face a daunting future of severe Republican gerrymandering that could flip control of the House in 2022 and suppress diverse younger generations political influence for years to come, according to a [link=https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/redistricting-landscape-2021-22]new study[/link] released today. Those findings underscore the stakes in Democrats efforts to pass national legislation combatting such electoral manipulation.
 
The four big states to watch are Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, where the GOP enjoys complete control over the redistricting process.
 
Said study author Michael Li: Those four states, which are seat-rich and where Republicans control the process, could decide who controls the next Congress.
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Count on it.

[btomba_77]

Last night from a Democratic party local activist friend:
 
“The best way to keep Trump from making a come back is for Democrats to win in 2022.  Get engaged now!”
 
 
(Republicans need to see at least one round of congressional losses attributed to their fealty to Trump in order for it to really sink in.)

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Graham Says McConnell Speech Could Haunt GOP in the Mid-Terms[/b][/h1]  
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said Sunday he thought Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnells speech blasting former President Donald Trump would be used against Republicans in campaign ads in 2022 when the party fights to reclaim the Senate, [link=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/02/14/lindsey-graham-says-mitch-mcconnells-trump-speech-may-haunt-gop/4481763001/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomwashington-topstories]USA Today[/link] reports.
 
Said Graham: He got a load off his chest, obviously, but unfortunately he put a load on the back of Republicans. That speech you will see in 2022 campaigns.

________________

Biden Agrees …..

[h1][b]Why Biden Will Keep Using Trump as a Foil for 2022[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/13/biden-trump-after-impeachment-469005]Politico[/link]: Biden and his aides will continue to use Trump as a foil for the foreseeable future as they seek to contrast the two presidents policies to build support for the White Houses agenda.
 
Bidens team learned a lesson from 2009, when President Barack Obama and Biden, then vice president, came to believe that theyd failed to defend their policies forcefully enough against criticisms from Republicans, including former Vice President Dick Cheney. Those criticisms, they believe, contributed to Democrats enormous losses in the 2010 midterm elections.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Trump Aide to Primary GOP Impeachment Supporter[/b][/h1]  
 
Former Trump White House aide Max Miller is expected to wage a primary challenge against GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, the latest opponent to take on a House Republican who supported the former presidents impeachment, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/22/trump-max-miller-ohio-470684]Politico[/link] reports.
 
Miller, who hails from northeastern Ohio, has been in talks with top Republican donors in the state and other party leaders since leaving the White House last month.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]The Biggest Generic Polling Miss Since 2006[/h1]  
[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-was-the-national-polling-environment-so-off-in-2020/]Geoffrey Skelley[/link]: So what happened? Were the polls just terribly off in 2020? Not dramatically, no. Yes, polls once again underestimated Donald Trumps performance, but the magnitude of that error (about 4 percentage points) wasnt all that different from past presidential contests, such as in 2012 when polls underestimated Barack Obamas margin of victory by almost 4 points. And there have, of course, been much larger polling errors, too.
 
But one reason the polling in 2020 has received so much attention is that down-ballot polling, namely the generic ballot which asks respondents whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives was also off by a similarly large margin in 2020. In fact the House popular vote was 4.2 points more Republican-leaning than the polls anticipated, making it the largest generic ballot polling miss in a presidential or midterm cycle since 2006.

_________________

So, ppinofr, but makes me think I want to see generic ballot polling Deb +5 [b]at the least[/b] to start thinking about holding the House.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

where the polls missed big time is in the downstream races.  You have a variety of races that were supposed to be close but dems ended up getting their salads handed to them.

[clickpenguin_460]

I think it will be Rep House and Dem Senate after 2022.

[btomba_77]

[h1]DNC Will Be More Involved in Midterms Than Past[/h1]  
New Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison is pledging to play a larger role in next years midterm elections than the group has in more than a decade, hoping a more robust effort from the once-beleaguered party apparatus can help prevent the type of steep electoral losses traditionally suffered by a sitting president, [link=https://www.mcclatchydc.com/article249433815.html]McClatchy[/link] reports.
In recent years, Democratic strategists say an underfunded and often neglected DNC was an afterthought in midterm races. But the new DNC chair is promising that those days are now behind them, pointing to an influx of cash and the full-throated backing of a new Democratic president whose political operation appears much more intent on using the committee than the partys last president.

__________

[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-dnc-politics/2021/02/23/ba11c3da-75f6-11eb-8115-9ad5e9c02117_story.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_politics]Joe Biden shifts his political operation to the Democratic National Committee ahead of 2022 midterm election[/link]
 

[btomba_77]

[b]Adam Kinzinger Gets Pro-Trump Challenger  [/b]
 
When Catalina Lauf launched her 2020 GOP campaign for Congress in a district outside of Chicago, it got little notice. Her Wednesday video announcing her 2022 primary challenge to Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) quickly skyrocketed to more than 523,900 views, the [link=https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2021/2/24/22300280/illinois-rep-adam-kinzinger-pro-trump-gop-primary-challenger-catalina-lauf-523900-hits-on-video]Chicago Sun Times[/link] reports.
 
A primary contest between Kinzinger and Lauf, if indeed it pans out, will be part of the GOP civil war being waged across the nation between Trump Republicans and Republicans who do not embrace the ex-president.

 

[btomba_77]

First 2022 generic ballot polling I have seen.  D+8

[link=https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Legers-North-American-Tracker-March-1st-2021-min.pdf]https://leger360.com/wp-c…March-1st-2021-min.pdf[/link]

Legers North American Survey: :

Democrat: 39%
Republican: 31%
Unsure: 30%

[clickpenguin_460]

That’s a pretty silly poll with 30% unsure.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Cubsfan10

That’s a pretty silly poll with 30% unsure.

Not out of whack for almost 2 years ahead of an election… a mid-term at that.  Not a ton of voter engagement.

[btomba_77]

House GOP Worries Trump Will Cost Them Majority[/h1]  
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/house-gop-trump-free-primaries-473533]Politico[/link]: As Trump ramps up his revenge tour against the House Republicans who voted to impeach him, GOP lawmakers are sounding the alarm that his attempts to meddle in primaries could hurt the partys efforts to win back the House next year, especially in critical swing districts in New York, Michigan and California. With just five seats between the GOP and the House majority, any one race could determine the balance.

 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/National-Monthly-For-Release-3-03-21.pdf]https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/National-Monthly-For-Release-3-03-21.pdf[/link]

McLaughlin poll (online)

generic ballot even at 46/46

[clickpenguin_460]

It would do a lot for Biden and the Dem approval if they cared about the unity they proclaimed before the election.  Maybe Biden can hold a press conference about it and take questions. Lol.

[btomba_77]

I disagree

Biden and the Dems are much better served by pushing through popular legislation on a party line vote than they are putting through crappy less-popular bills after haggling for a few Republican votes

[btomba_77]

I do agree on the press availability though.

Part of the return to normalcy implied in the Biden presidency was press relations.

Its not enough to just have Jen Psaki on the podium every day. Biden needs to do press himself.

[ruszja]

Quote from dergon

I do agree on the press availability though.

Part of the return to normalcy implied in the Biden presidency was press relations.

Its not enough to just have Jen Psaki on the podium every day. Biden needs to do press himself.

 
‘We’ll have to circle back’ with you on that one*.
 
 
 
The only way Biden can survive questions is if they come from a prepared list and he can stick to his teleprompter script to answer them. Putting him in front of press allowed to ask free-form questions would be negligent.
 
 
 
 
 
* [size=”1″]She reminds me of Ari Fleischer. Not sure why.[/size]

[clickpenguin_460]

I mean I don’t think anyone is denying he’s just an empty vessel at this point right?  Wasn’t that the point so liberals could get their agenda?
 
Also, that bill being popular is really misleading and you know it.  You attach one popular thing (free money) and know people will say they want it so then you add 100 things that people don’t want.  Try a line by line poll and see how that goes.

[kaldridgewv2211]

Jen Psaki comes off as talking down to people at times. She didnt fire the press aid who started some scrum either. The dude had to resign once they got called out for not following g through on Bidens promise to fire anyone.

[clickpenguin_460]

double true

[btomba_77]

file:///C:/Users/peter/Downloads/Dcorps-National-Phone-Poll-Deck_031021_Final.pdf
file:///C:/Users/peter/Downloads/Dcorps-National-Phone-Poll-Memo_03102021_Final.pdf

[b]Democracy Corps[/b] first generic ballot poll —

Democrats +4 using 2020 turnout estimates, Dems +6 on 2018 turnout.

Finally, this may all add up to Democrats having a slight edge at this point in this new polarized period, with its glacial changes from 2020. Trump war against Blacks, immigrants, crime, and cancel culture gives him a firm hold on about 43 percent of voters, but Trump no longer has the stage to call his own. Biden is 12 points above water and Democrats have 4-point lead in the generic congressional and larger in the blue wall states (+7) and 2022 Senate and Governors battleground (+11).

This poll shows the Democrats with an edge assuming Trump is able to keep motivating his white working class, Evangelical and rural base but the Democrats margin would be 2 points larger if turnout patterns looked like 2018 where white college voters played a bigger part and 2 points larger if all groups increased or decreased turnout at the same rate (vote file composition).

In short, there is a long way to go, but lets never underestimate a right-wing populist leaders ability to motivate its base of white working class and rural voters when he can warn of becoming a national minority. This poll addressed that danger and provides a strong starting point.[/QUOTE]

[btomba_77]

[h1]Two Very Different Bets for 2022[/h1]  
[link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/both-parties-are-making-very-different-early-bets-2022-n1261191]First Read[/link]: President Biden and the Democrats have bet big on the coronavirus and the economy, ramping up vaccine distribution, passing the Covid relief law, and getting $1,400 checks in the hands of most Americans.
 
Republicans, meanwhile, are no longer even trying to message on the coronavirus and the Covid relief law and theyre instead focused on immigration and the influx of migrants at the border.
 
These different messages have exposed political vulnerabilities for the other side.
 
Republicans have taken their eye off a pandemic thats killed more than 500,000 Americans, and when it comes to the economy, theyre arguing that a boom was coming even before Bidens stimulus.
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Again, fear and anger is all Republicans have for their “platform.” They totally bungled COVID response so it is still a nothing-burger & will always be unless some mistake is made that would allow Republicans to circle around to blame Biden for. But because COVID and the economy is a non-issue because Biden is addressing, like COVID, the economy is something that is already fixed without doing a thing.
 
But those brown Hispanic criminals and terrorists “invading” the Southern border are certainly something to fear, so the drumbeat will continue and Republicans and their media will try to make it louder and louder regardless of the reality.
 
BE AFRAID!

[btomba_77]

Quote from Frumious

Again, fear and anger is all Republicans have for their “platform.” They totally bungled COVID response so it is still a nothing-burger & will always be unless some mistake is made that would allow Republicans to circle around to blame Biden for. But because COVID and the economy is a non-issue because Biden is addressing, like COVID, the economy is something that is already fixed without doing a thing.

But those brown Hispanic criminals and terrorists “invading” the Southern border are certainly something to fear, so the drumbeat will continue and Republicans and their media will try to make it louder and louder regardless of the reality.

BE AFRAID!

[img]https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Slide5_20.JPG[/img]

[link=https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news_and_polls/reutersipsos-core-political-survey-presidential-approval-tracker-03182021]https://www.ipsos.com/en-…roval-tracker-03182021[/link]

Ipsos issue polling.  At this point it would imply that economy and covid a much better bet than immigration.

[kaldridgewv2211]

Looks like you’ll get to vote.  Dewine gonna accounce election to fill Marcia Fudge’s seat.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-unclear-lines-clear-expectations/]https://centerforpolitics…es-clear-expectations/[/link]

We know that Republicans will control the line drawing in more places than Democrats. Based on an analysis of state-by-state redistricting procedures by Justin Levitts All About Redistricting [link=https://redistricting.lls.edu/national-overview/?colorby=Institution&level=Congress&cycle=2020]site[/link], and taking into account anticipated House seat gains and losses because of population changes, Republicans control the process in states that are expected to hold 188 seats and Democrats have control in states expected to hold 73. The remaining 174 seats are in states where neither party dominates, where the process is nonpartisan or bipartisan, or where there is only a single House seat.
 
Among the big states, Republican redistricting power will likely be most significant in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, while Democrats will hope to bolster themselves in Illinois and New York. There will be a lot more to say about redistricting as the cycle unfolds.

…

[h3]Conclusion[/h3] Its far too early to make any hard and fast predictions about the House, particularly with all of the uncertainties about redistricting. But the history is what it is, and if the 2022 midterm unfolds like the last several, Republicans are well-positioned to win the House next year. In midterm environments, the presidents party typically loses ground, particularly in open seats, while the nonpresidential party typically gains ground and is able to defend its open seats.
[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/march-omnibus-political/]Echelon Insights

[/link]Generic Ballot:  D+4

(Echelon also had the generic ballot at D+4 in November (48D-44R) which was very close to the result … so perhaps environment still similar)

[btomba_77]

[link=https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1400504615330750467]https://twitter.com/fbiho…us/1400504615330750467[/link]

Nevada GOP blames low special election turnout on Republican voters; lack of confidence in election integrity.

Low voter turnout was a big factor. Republicans were angry from 2020 many questioned election integrity and stayed home.

[btomba_77]

Christy Smith Will Run Again for California House Seat[/h1]  
Christy Smith (D) launched her campaign for the Californias 25th congressional district, setting up a rematch for one of the states most competitive House seats with Rep. Mike Garcia (R), [link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/545750-christy-smith-launches-congressional-campaign-setting-up-rematch-for]The Hill[/link] reports.
 
Smith lost twice to Garcia in 2020 in the Los Angeles-area district once in May to finish the term of former Rep. Katie Hill (D) and once in November for a full term.

 

[btomba_77]

[h1]Early Polling Points to Strong 2022 for Republicans[/h1]  
[link=https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/03/politics/2022-midterms-republicans-congressional-ballot/index.html]Harry Enten[/link]:

Of course, it is possible that this cycle will be different. Trump may have changed who turns out permanently. With the Democratic base increasingly made up of more college educated voters (and college educated voters being [link=http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics]the most likely to turnout[/link]), the Republican advantage in turnout this midterm may be smaller than what we’re used to seeing.

Still, it’s likely that there will be at least some movement toward the Republicans in the national political environment between now and next November.

If trends hold, the most likely national House result in 2022 given the current generic ballot is Republicans winning by between 4 and 5 points.

A lot of things can still happen.
 
But this data makes clear that it would take a historical anomaly for Republicans not to gain ground in the midterms. The party not in the White House has picked up seats in [link=https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/vitalstats_ch2_full.pdf]every midterm except three in the last 150 years[/link]. The current generic ballot suggests we’re likely to see a repeat of this trend.

[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html]https://www.realclearpoli…on_of_country-902.html[/link]

RCP average Right Track/Wrong Track hits highest point since May 2009.      Sounds like it should be good news for Dems, but with Obama is fell off in a hurry ahead of the 2010 midterms.  We’ll see if  Biden can hold it for longer.

[btomba_77]

[b]GOP Has Edge In This Redistricting Cycle[/b][/h1]  
The U.S. Census Bureau will release the first data from the 2020 census next week, setting in motion the process of redistricting: the scramble to draw new congressional maps in the 43 states with more than one district. And with the House more closely divided than its been in two decades, each individual states new map could have huge implications on the majority fight, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/23/redistricting-cycle-begin-484510]Politico[/link] reports.
 
Strategists in both parties agree Republicans have the advantage. The Midwest and Rust Belt arent growing as fast as the Sun Belt, and the congressional districts will be reallocated accordingly. States like Florida, Texas, Arizona and North Carolina will see their delegations grow, while Michigan, Pennsylvania and Illinois shrink. Thats a net benefit to the GOP because Democrats have struggled to increase their statewide footprint in many of the places that are gaining representation.

 
_____
 
Republicans have a decent chance of retaking the House just based on redistricting changes.