[btomba_77]

Quote from acpce1

Trump needs to be asked:

You keep on insisting the 2020 election was stolen. If you really think the election was stolen from you, what makes you think it will not be stolen from you again? And what are you going to do to prevent it?

 
“We won the 2020 election. We won it by a lot. By numbers nobody has seen before.  And we’ll win in 2024. We’re going to a have a plan to stop the RADICAL MARXIST COMMUNIST DEMOCRATS from stealing the election.  It’s the best plan and we’re going to have it. It’s a plan that’s going to work for everyone and will be the best plan.  We’ll stop the steal and the end the voter fraud. Because TRUMP won in 2020 and TRUMP will win with his great plan to win by winning in 2024.”

[btomba_77]

[b]Democrats Warn Trump Could Win Again[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/democrats-warn-party-threat-trump-winning-real-rcna90486]NBC News[/link]: A new NBC News poll released Sunday showed Biden with a relatively narrow 49% to 45% lead over Trump which falls within the surveys margin of error and is far lower than the 10 percentage point edge Biden held in NBCs last poll before the 2020 election. The new survey shows DeSantis, who is less known than Trump, tied with Biden at 47% each.
 
Despite an air of confidence from Biden and his team, some Democrats say they believe Trump has a very serious shot at winning back the Oval Office.
 
Said former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH): If you think otherwise, you have literally had your head buried in the sand. Youre living in a world of delusion. And its dangerous.

 

[satyanar]

I get it. Have to stoke the fear to keep turn out high. Smart.

Would also help if every Dem supported a moderate agenda.

[amyelizabethbarrett28_711]

Dergon said: We won the 2020 election. We won it by a lot. By numbers nobody has seen before. And we’ll win in 2024. We’re going to a have a plan to stop the RADICAL MARXIST COMMUNIST DEMOCRATS from stealing the election. It’s the best plan and we’re going to have it. It’s a plan that’s going to work for everyone and will be the best plan. We’ll stop the steal and the end the voter fraud. Because TRUMP won in 2020 and TRUMP will win with his great plan to win by winning in 2024.”

The most Trumpy answer ever. That cant be real?

[kaldridgewv2211]

Whats with the RFK video working out in jeans. Dude looks ripped but moves less weight than my mom. Like struggle bus on the incline bench.

[ruszja]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

Whats with the RFK video working out in jeans. Dude looks ripped but moves less weight than my mom. Like struggle bus on the incline bench.

That’s like RBG lifting 5lb weights and Biden riding a bicycle.

[btomba_77]

Quote from acpce1

Dergon said: We won the 2020 election. We won it by a lot. By numbers nobody has seen before. And we’ll win in 2024. We’re going to a have a plan to stop the RADICAL MARXIST COMMUNIST DEMOCRATS from stealing the election. It’s the best plan and we’re going to have it. It’s a plan that’s going to work for everyone and will be the best plan. We’ll stop the steal and the end the voter fraud. Because TRUMP won in 2020 and TRUMP will win with his great plan to win by winning in 2024.”

The most Trumpy answer ever. That cant be real?

No, that was not real. But that is pretty much what you would get as a response.
 
Asking Trump a direct question and expecting a direct answer is … well, it ain’t gonna happen.
 
 

[btomba_77]

 
 
 
[link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Flaw.marquette.edu%2Fpoll%2F]https://law.marquette.edu/poll/[/link]

Marquette poll of Wisconsin voters –
[h2][link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Flaw.marquette.edu%2Fpoll%2F2023%2F06%2F28%2Fmlsp75-press-release%2F]Biden with bigger lead over Trump than over DeSantis[/link][/h2] [ul][*][i]If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. Biden has a materially larger lead over Trump in a hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trumps 43% and 4% undecided.[/i] [/ul]  

[amyelizabethbarrett28_711]

To what extent should and will they go to prevent Trump from winning? Remember the words of Sam Harris:

[link=https://twitter.com/comicdavesmith/status/1560323224973578242?s=46&t=Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw]https://twitter.com/comic…Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw[/link]

I actually appreciate Sam Harris for saying this out loud. This is what the vast majority of the anti Trump crowd believes, but most of them won’t say it. At least when it’s said, you can see it for what it is.pic.twitter.com/NmOqshoZlS

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) August 18, 2022

[satyanar]

They Hahahaha

[btomba_77]

 [link=https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa06282023_pbjs18.pdf]Quinnipiac University poll

[/link]PA: Trump 47/Biden 46

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/sacsc-june-poll-shows-voters-believe-bidentrump-matchup-would-be-clear-sign-broken-party-system]https://www.anselm.edu/ab…gn-broken-party-system[/link]
New Hampshire:

Biden 49/ Trump 40
Biden 49/ DeSantis 40

Former President Donald Trump is looking to repeat his successful 2016 pathway to victory of scattering opposition among several opponents.  As new entrants have emerged since our last survey in March, Trump has gained 5 points of support and now sits just shy of a majority with 47%.  Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen his support erode 10 points to 19%.  Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is now in third place in the state followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Governor Tim Scott.[/QUOTE]

As of now, Biden would prevail in a rematch with Trump in New Hampshire.  49% of respondents would vote for Biden, while 40% would vote for Trump.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will have to articulate a clear rationale for his challenge to Trump if he is to avoid falling back to the pack. The rationale wont be that hes a palatable alternative to the former President, as he demonstrates no better ballot strength (Biden 49%-40%) among General Election voters.  As of today, voters seem headed toward precipitating a rematch of 2020 that few claim to be happy about.[/QUOTE]

[btomba_77]

, [link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/electoral-college-ratings-expect-another-highly-competitive-election/]Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball[/link] 

[img]https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/062923eleccollege.png[/img]

[h3][b]A first look at the 2024 Electoral College[/b][/h3] Democrats start closer to the magic number of 270 electoral votes in our initial Electoral College ratings than Republicans. But with few truly competitive states and a relatively high floor for both parties, [b]our best guess is yet another close and competitive presidential election next year[/b]  which, if it happened, would be the sixth such instance in seven elections (with 2008 as the only real outlier).

______

 There are  just four true toss ups: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10).
Sabato has N Carolina (16) and Maines 2nd congressional district (1) as Lean Republican.
And Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and New Hampshire (4) Lean Democratic.
 

[btomba_77]

I get queasy and anxious even posting this, It feels like a jinx. But …

from your lips to god’s ears, David Frum-

[link=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump/673856/]https://www.theatlantic.c…on-biden-trump/673856/[/link]

[h1]The Coming Biden Blowout[/h1] Republicans thought about running without Trump in 2024but lost their nerve. Theyre heading for electoral disaster again.

There was no secret to a more intelligent and intentional Republican plan for 2024. It would have gone like this:
(1) Replace Donald Trump at the head of the ticket with somebody less obnoxious and impulsive.
(2) Capitalize on inflation and other economic troubles.
(3) Offer plausible ideas on drugs, crime, and border enforcement.
(4) Reassure women worried about the post-[i]Roe [/i]future.
(5) Dont be too obvious about suppressing Democratic votes, because really blatant voter suppression will provoke and mobilize Democrats to vote, not discourage them.

Unfortunately for them, Republicans have turned every element of the plan upside down and inside out. Despite lavish anti-Trump donations by big-money Republicans, Trump is cruising to easy renomination. Rather than capitalize on existing economic troubles, Republicans have started a debt-ceiling fight that will cast them as the [i]cause[/i] of Americas economic troubles. Worse for them, the troubles are fast receding. Inflation is vexing, but the recession that Republicans hoped for did not materialize: Instead, Joe Biden has presided over the fastest and steepest unemployment reduction in U.S. economic history.

…

Chief among what motivates voters who face obstacles is hope. People will endure and overcome barriers when they feel that their vote can make a difference. If Democrats succeed in communicating hope in 2024 that young people can contribute to a decisive defeat of Trump and MAGA extremism, then that is what they will do.
This cycle, that hope is well founded. Republicans are doing everything wrong. They are talking to their voters about Trumps personal grievances and about boutique culture-war issues that their own base does not much care about, such as the state of Floridas [link=https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/05/ron-desantis-disney-florida-republicans/629722/]war on Disney[/link]. At the same time, Republican leaders are confronting Democratic voters with extremist threats on issues they care intensely about: bans on [link=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/supreme-court-mifepristone-abortion-pill-ban/673825/]abortion medication[/link] by mail, [link=https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/idaho-most-extreme-anti-abortion-state-law-restricts-travel-rcna78225]restrictions on the freedom[/link] of young women to travel across state lines, [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/us/politics/republicans-young-voters-college.html]attacks on student voting rights[/link], proposed big [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/11/gop-medicaid-food-stamps-work/]cuts to Medicaid and food stamps[/link] in the GOP debt-ceiling ransom demand. Republicans offer no economic message and no affirming vision, even as they make new moves to police womens bodies and start a land war in Mexico. They are well on their way to earning a deep, nasty defeatand the smell of that defeat may be an additional draw to the polls for the Democratic-leaning constituencies that will inflict it.

[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/very-narrow-electoral-college-playing-field]Cook Political Report[/link] 

[h1]A Very Narrow Electoral College Playing Field[/h1]

This has been an incredibly volatile 15 years of politics, but you wouldnt know that by looking at the results of the Electoral College. As Ron Brownstein, one of the smartest analysts in the business, pointed out in a CNN column late last year, 80% of the states have voted the same way in at least the past four presidential elections a level of consistency unmatched through the 20th century. From 2008 until the 2020 election, only 10 states Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (plus two swing single-vote districts NE-02 and ME-02) have voted for both Democratic and Republican nominees.
 
Adding another layer of consistency to 2024 is the fact that we are very likely to see a repeat race between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump. While this doesnt mean that a rematch ends in the exact same place it did in 2020, it does take some of the uncertainty out of the equation.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

Notice the 5 states highlighted in this Biden jobs ad

[link=https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1684357225999917063?s=46&t=rWwiVdwocpuvqskgif1xxA]https://twitter.com/joebi…rWwiVdwocpuvqskgif1xxA[/link]

This is made possible by our historic investments. pic.twitter.com/ISNp7JbKAM

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 27, 2023

[amyelizabethbarrett28_711]

Unbelievable. Biden administration rejects RFK Jrs request for Secret Service protection in 2024 race.

[link=https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1684909385376575488?s=46&t=Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw]https://twitter.com/rober…Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw[/link]

Since the assassination of my father in 1968, candidates for president are provided Secret Service protection.  But not me.
 
Typical turnaround time for pro forma protection requests from presidential candidates is 14-days.  After 88-days of no response and after several follow-ups by our campaign, the Biden Administration just denied our request.  Secretary Mayorkas: “I have determined that Secret Service protection for Robert F Kennedy Jr is not warranted at this time.”
 Our campaign’s request included a 67-page report from the world’s leading protection firm, detailing unique and well established security and safety risks aside from commonplace death threats.

Since the assassination of my father in 1968, candidates for president are provided Secret Service protection.  But not me.
 
Typical turnaround time for pro forma protection requests from presidential candidates is 14-days.  After 88-days of no response and after several…

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 28, 2023

[amyelizabethbarrett28_711]

Unbelievable. Biden administration rejects RFK Jrs request for Secret Service protection in 2024 race.

[link=https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1684909385376575488?s=46&t=Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw]https://twitter.com/rober…Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw[/link]

Since the assassination of my father in 1968, candidates for president are provided Secret Service protection.  But not me.
 
Typical turnaround time for pro forma protection requests from presidential candidates is 14-days.  After 88-days of no response and after several follow-ups by our campaign, the Biden Administration just denied our request.  Secretary Mayorkas: “I have determined that Secret Service protection for Robert F Kennedy Jr is not warranted at this time.”
 
Our campaign’s request included a 67-page report from the world’s leading protection firm, detailing unique and well established security and safety risks aside from commonplace death threats.

Since the assassination of my father in 1968, candidates for president are provided Secret Service protection.  But not me.
 
Typical turnaround time for pro forma protection requests from presidential candidates is 14-days.  After 88-days of no response and after several…

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 28, 2023

[kayla.meyer_144]

Fantasies of martyrdom. No one attempted to kill Teddy. Or JFK Jr. (hes still alive as Q, as Im sure acpce1 knows).
 
No ones going after RFK, Jr.

[btomba_77]

Meh. Don’t see why that guy deserves SS protection.   Right call.
 
 
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Seems to still be a redux of 2020, essentially neck-in-neck race.
 
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/upshot/biden-trump-poll-2024.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/upshot/biden-trump-poll-2024.html[/link]

Yet despite the stop-the-steal movement, the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the numerous investigations facing Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html]are still tied[/link], each at 43 percent, among registered voters in [link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/01/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voters-crosstabs.html]our first Times/Siena poll of the 2024 election cycle[/link].
 
The possibility that criminal indictments havent crippled Mr. Trumps general election chances might come as a surprise or even a shock, but the result is worth taking seriously. It does not seem to be a fluke: Our Times/Siena polls last fall  [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/28/upshot/polling-2022-review.html]which were notably accurate[/link]  also showed a very close race in a possible presidential rematch, including a one-point lead for Mr. Trump among registered voters in our [link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/18/upshot/times-siena-poll-registered-voters-crosstabs.html]final October survey[/link].
 
Mr. Trumps resilience is not necessarily an indication of his strength. In most respects, he appears to be a badly wounded general election candidate. Just 41 percent of registered voters say they have a favorable view of him, while a majority believe he committed serious federal crimes and say his conduct after the last election went so far that it threatened American democracy.
 
The survey suggests that the electorate remains deeply divided along the demographic fault lines of the 2020 presidential election, with Mr. Trump commanding a wide lead among white voters without a college degree, while Mr. Biden counters with an advantage among nonwhite voters and white college graduates.

[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/upshot/poll-trump-republican-primary.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/31/upshot/poll-trump-republican-primary.html[/link]

But even if it might be a mistake to call Mr. Trump inevitable, the Times/Siena data suggests that he commands a seemingly unshakable base of loyal supporters, representing more than one-third of the Republican electorate. Alone, their support is not enough for Mr. Trump to win the primary. But it is large enough to make him extremely hard to defeat perhaps every bit as hard as the historical record suggests.
 
Its populist. Its conservative. Its blue collar. Its convinced the nation is on the verge of catastrophe. And its exceptionally loyal to Donald Trump.
 
As defined here, members of Mr. Trumps MAGA base represent 37 percent of the Republican electorate. They strongly support him in the Republican primary and have a very favorable view of him.
 
The MAGA base doesnt support Mr. Trump in spite of his flaws. It supports him because it doesnt seem to believe he has flaws.
 

Zero percent not a single one of the 319 respondents in this MAGA category said he had committed serious federal crimes. A mere 2 percent said he did something wrong in his handling of classified documents. More than 90 percent said Republicans needed to stand behind him in the face of the investigations.
 
But with so much of the G.O.P. electorate seemingly devoted to Mr. Trump, the path to defeating him is exceptionally narrow. It requires a candidate to consolidate the preponderance of the rest of the Republican electorate, and the rest of the Republican electorate is not easy to unify.

 
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Its the federal bureaucracy, he added. You can violate five things without even knowing about it.

As if Trump did not know anything.

To be sure, nearly 75 percent of Republicans still say Mr. Trump did not commit any serious federal crimes. Of that group, 17 percent say they think the former president may have done something wrong in the handling of classified documents.
 

He probably violated some regulation that didnt rise to the point of a crime, or, you know, just didnt tell somebody they were supposed to do or didnt deliver the right paperwork, said Henry Welch, 51, of Porter, Texas.
 

[btomba_77]

He probably violated some regulation that didnt rise to the point of a crime, or, you know, just didnt tell somebody they were supposed to do or didnt deliver the right paperwork

willful ignorance

[btomba_77]

[h3][link=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/02/obama-biden-trump-2024-campaign]Obama warns Biden over strength of Trump in the 2024 General Election [/link][/h3] Obama also says he’ll do whatever it takes to help Joe get re-elected
 

[satyanar]

Man, while its pathetic the Reps cant support a better choice its sad that the Dems dont have a better choice. Beating Trump should be a cake walk with a solid moderate candidate. Heck, give him a trusted running mate and even that would be a slam dunk.

75% of the electorate wants someone other than Trump. I sure hope somebody figures out how to put the right candidate up. Its not supposed to the close.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Thread Enhancer

Man, while its pathetic the Reps cant support a better choice its sad that the Dems dont have a better choice. Beating Trump should be a cake walk with a solid moderate candidate. Heck, give him a trusted running mate and even that would be a slam dunk.

 
Removing Harris for a “trusted running mate” would be a huge political risk. IMHO, a risk greater than the risk of running with her on the ticket.

75% of the electorate wants someone other than Trump. I sure hope somebody figures out how to put the right candidate up. Its not supposed to the close.

 
No candidate has ever blown a 20 point primary lead this far into the race, no less the nearly 40 point lead Trump has.
 
Everything about him has broken the mold, so I’ll never say never, but it would be a historically unmatched collapse for Trump to not get the nomination.  (The the GOP is actually taking steps to *increase* his odds of winning, not trying to stop him)
 
 
 
 

[satyanar]

Exactly dergon. Why we are in this mess. Nothing about what I wrote was meant to be hopeful it will be the Reps to the rescue.

[satyanar]

But there is no political risk in dumping Kamala. At least in a rematch with Trump. Anyone supporting her would not jump ship to give Trump a chance. Thats the only thing that matters IMO. He has to be taken out, by someone.

Would you think a third party candidate is a bigger risk?

Now if you are worried about downstream effects for the party I can give you that.

[amyelizabethbarrett28_711]

Rogan:

No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation, and it looked like his policies were actually effective.

Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done. When you look at it from a policy perspective, what he did on paper was effective…

Everybody thinks there needs to be a wall. Even the Mayor of New York City is now calling to stop immigration into his city…

When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullsht, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullsht.

Not just bullsht but coordinated bullsht. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.

And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That’s scary.

Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically.”

[kayla.meyer_144]

If you can’t win against Joe Biden, raise the alarms about that woman VP of his!
 

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, told people at the Lincoln Dinner in Iowa that a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris. Thats who were actually running against. We have to make sure she doesnt win.
 
———-
 
Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) I think people [i](read as “Conservatives”)[/i] dont want Kamala Harris to take over,

Gaslighter Gov Ron DeSantis opposes Kamala flying to Florida to criticize Florida’s education standards whitewashing atrocities and turning history lessons into propaganda, arguments how slavery benefitted Black people. So lucky to be a slave! Makes you think of Randy Newman’s “Sail Away” lyrics. 
 
I’m sure there’s nothing about Kamala’s mixed race, like Obama or sex, like Hillary involved in the opposition in any small way. This is America where such things are completely in the past, if at all. Just ask Ron or many other Conservatives.

[satyanar]

Nice. Now Frumi is calling my mother, who loved Obama, a racist because she doesnt think Kamala is a good VP and is worried that she is Bidens back up.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Yes, EVERYONE, ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE including your mother (insert any YOUR MAMMA joke here, “Your Mama’s so…”) who does not like Democrats, whether Biden, Kamala, Obama, etc is a racist.
 
<EYEROLLS & Face Palms>
 
Is your argument then, like DeSantis’s & others that there are no racists in America? They are extinct if they ever even existed?
 
Somebody voted for Trump in 2016 and more so in 2020 and maybe even in 2024.
 
Ad absurdum arguments are your forté, Thread Diminisher.
 
 

[satyanar]

Quote from Frumious

Yes, EVERYONE, ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE including your mother (insert any YOUR MAMMA joke here, “Your Mama’s so…”)[b] who does not like Democrats, whether Biden, Kamala, Obama, etc is a racist.[/b]

<EYEROLLS & Face Palms>

[b]Is your argument[/b] then, like DeSantis’s & others that there are no racists in America? They are extinct if they ever even existed?

Somebody voted for Trump in 2016 and more so in 2020 and maybe even in 2024.

Ad absurdum arguments are your forté, Thread Diminisher.

 
My mother is a Democrat. Has always been a Democrat. Loves Democrats. Votes exactly like dergon. She happens to dislike Kamala. Thinks she is a drag on Biden whom she will vote for no matter what, especially if Trump is going up against him. She is not a racist. She is not
 
At least you asked what my argument was this time. No, it is not what you suggest.
 
I am calling you out again for trying to connect the dots from disliking to Kamala to being like the MAGA right and therefore being a racist. Since you have no good arguments that’s all you have and it gets more and more obvious.
 
Heck, even chiro admitted that I make a lot of sense. He just didn’t like that I “give cover” to some on the far right. At least he admitted it. Are you even more cowardly than him? It’s pretty hard to be but I wouldn’t put it past you. 
 
“Don’t count yourself out, you are a tremendous slouch”.
 
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

So your point is what exactly about your mother??? She would vote for Biden if Kamala was not his VP? You ignored about my statement about Hillary and the anti-woman vote, therefore I am accusing your mother of being anti-woman, yes?
 
Or your and other conservatives’ concern about Biden’s being an extremist radical Leftie Communist/Socialist?
 
You are ridiculous. 
 
Grow up. Everything is not absolute.
 
Who votes for a candidate based solely on their choice of VP? You mean like Pére George Bush’s VP or son Bush’s VP or Trump’s VP? I did not oppose them over their VP choices.

[satyanar]

The point about my mother is that she will vote for Biden no matter what but she and her Dem friends are concerned about Kamala. It’ a reasonable concern and it could effect the election. I’m voting for Biden if Trump is the opponent but I am also concerned. Mostly about the Forward Party putting up a third candidate. 
 
I have no concern about Biden being a leftist. I told you I want him to be the moderate he is. I just wish he wasn’t almost dead.
 
I don’t know anyone who has ever voted solely based on the VP. There you go again. Telling me what I or someone else would do. 
 
The point about Kamala as VP is because Biden is old and showing it. It is not out of the questions that Biden could become incapacitated in the six years and there are quite a lot of people worried about Kamala taking over, including my far left mother.
 
Is any of that “[b]ridiculous”[/b]?
 
Or did you just create a ridiculous straw man to tear apart?
 

[satyanar]

What I find amusing Frumi is that you keep arguing with me as if I am somebody I am not. Not sure why but my guess is that you don’t trust people at their word. Of course, it doesn’t matter on an anonymous message board, but it sure makes you seem sad and angry.

[satyanar]

What do you mean? Everyone says it because its true. Anyone with a brain wants to prevent Trump from winning again. Its just too bad the Dems dont have a better candidate because they should be able to slaughter him.

[btomba_77]

Early … but not a bad sign 
 
[h1]Democrats Drastically Overperforming in Special Elections[/h1]  
[link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-overperforming-2023-special-elections-clue-biden-trump/story?id=101850305]ABC News[/link]:
Looking ahead [link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/running-president-2024/story?id=96849127]to 2024[/link], Democrats concede some cause for concern — including President Joe Biden’s [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/]anemic approval rating[/link] and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html]Biden either ties or trails[/link], due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and [link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/broad-doubts-bidens-age-acuity-spell-republican-opportunity/story?id=99109308]apprehension over Biden’s age and acuity[/link], which he has repeatedly dismissed.
 
 
But Democrats also say that based on 2023 so far, they see plenty of reason for optimism about their chances with voters.

 An analysis from [i]FiveThirtyEight[/i] found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, [b]Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean or the relative liberal or conservative history of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties[/b], too.
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Fingers crossed that Democratics and Democratic voters will overwhelmingly turn out in 2024. It is irresponsibly naïve to believe that Trump’s re-election is nothing to worry about considering that 2020 was not exactly a slam-dunk Biden win and that the majority of Conservatives still support Trump despite proof of his corruption and authoritarianism with promises that “you ain’t seen nothin yet!” should he get re-elected. It is irresponsibly naïve to believe that THE major problem with 2024 is Biden’s radicalism, meaning Biden and his administration is a screaming Communist/Socialist administration, if he’d only become Republican-lite and dump Kamala, then more Conservatives would/might consider voting for Biden over Trump and not consider running a “No Labels” candidate.
 
Yes, we’ve all just fallen off the turnip truck. It’s about the money, stupid!
 
[link=https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a44704941/no-labels-donors-conservative/]https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a44704941/no-labels-donors-conservative/[/link]

For a moment, let us decline to be in kindergarten. Big money conservative donors are not drawn to No Labels because of this desperate hunger for “common sense solutions” to what No Labels sees as the nation’s problems. (“My god, Joe Lieberman was never president!”) They are drawn to it because they want and need another Republican in the White House to protect the tax cuts and deregulatory regimes through which they become richer. I’m cynical enough to believe that if, somehow, the former president* would be elected again, they’d find a way to make peace with it. They are contributing to No Labels because they have made the cold-eyed decision that Joe Biden must lose, and that No Labels is a convenient laundromat for their consciences. Not a bad play, considering the No Labels has no conscience of its own.

[kayla.meyer_144]

The trial should be televised.
 
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/opinion/trump-jan-6-trial-tv.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/opinion/trump-jan-6-trial-tv.html[/link]

In the work I do looking at the reliability of online news and information, I can see that the erosion of trust in basic facts is largely the result of too many people getting their news from social media platforms. What they see there may be highly opinionated, one-sided, boiled down to a few words or catchy phrases, or taken out of context, come from people with undisclosed credentials or agendas, or be just plain made up. And its all sorted out and presented by algorithms designed to engage them to spend more time on the platform by offering up content that will excite rather than inform, and please them rather than challenge them, by reinforcing what they already believe.
 

Whats presented to jurors in a courtroom has the opposite qualities. Court is a quiet, somber sanctuary, where rules prevent the disorienting chaos we experience online. Jurors are made aware of the credentials and possible biases of witnesses. Documents and other exhibits are painstakingly authenticated. The admissibility of evidence is carefully vetted by a judge, and after a lawyer on one side is allowed to present it, a lawyer on the other side can then challenge it, with both lawyers strictly limited by rules not allowing them to present hearsay or rumors or offer their opinions.
 
In the 1980s, as a journalist reporting on the law, I interviewed jurors after their trials to find out how they had reached their verdicts. After a while, one thing struck me as unusually consistent: Jurors said that after sitting on juries they were surprised by how much more favorably they thought of our justice system. When they got to see the system up close and at full length instead of how it was displayed on the 11 oclock news (this was well before we all went online), with sound-bite spins from lawyers on the courthouse steps or prosecutors at a news conference they decided that it worked well. That it did a good job sorting out the truth. More than one juror told me that it was something we should all be proud of.

 
Sometime this year or next, a Federal District Court in Washington, D.C., will likely be the scene of what may be the most consequential trial in the nations history. A jury will have to decide whether a former president of the United States is guilty of plotting to corrupt the democratic process and overturn an election.

 

[satyanar]

Quote from Frumious

Fingers crossed that Democratics and Democratic voters will overwhelmingly turn out in 2024. It is irresponsibly naïve to believe that Trump’s re-election is nothing to worry about considering that 2020 was not exactly a slam-dunk Biden win and that the majority of Conservatives still support Trump despite proof of his corruption and authoritarianism with promises that “you ain’t seen nothin yet!” should he get re-elected. It is irresponsibly naïve to believe that THE major problem with 2024 is Biden’s radicalism, meaning Biden and his administration is a screaming Communist/Socialist administration, if he’d only become Republican-lite and dump Kamala, then more Conservatives would/might consider voting for Biden over Trump and not consider running a “No Labels” candidate.

Yes, we’ve all just fallen off the turnip truck. It’s about the money, stupid!

[link=https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a44704941/no-labels-donors-conservative/]https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a44704941/no-labels-donors-conservative/[/link]

For a moment, let us decline to be in kindergarten. Big money conservative donors are not drawn to No Labels because of this desperate hunger for “common sense solutions” to what No Labels sees as the nation’s problems. (“My god, Joe Lieberman was never president!”) They are drawn to it because they want and need another Republican in the White House to protect the tax cuts and deregulatory regimes through which they become richer. I’m cynical enough to believe that if, somehow, the former president* would be elected again, they’d find a way to make peace with it. They are contributing to No Labels because they have made the cold-eyed decision that Joe Biden must lose, and that No Labels is a convenient laundromat for their consciences. Not a bad play, considering the No Labels has no conscience of its own.

 
This is beautiful. Frumi loving the straw man argument of articles he reads because they are the same as his own. Tell others what someone they don’t know is thinking and doing. Then pat themselves on the back for destroying their plan. 

[amyelizabethbarrett28_711]

Joe Biden, 11/9/22:

We just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run, making sure he under legitimate efforts of our Constitution does not become the next president again.

[satyanar]

Whats wrong with that?

[btomba_77]

Quote from Thread Enhancer

Whats wrong with that?

It’s clear evidence of weaponization, obviously!
 
[b]Impeach!!!![/b]

[satyanar]

Ill take this occasion to indicate that I recognize what you are up against dergon. I apologize for the cover I give to some of the extreme thinking by suggesting we question the reports we see in the media. We are all prone to being persuaded when they come from a single source. And if we dont recognize the methods they use to persuade us.

[satyanar]

Quote from dergon

Early … but not a bad sign 

[h1]Democrats Drastically Overperforming in Special Elections[/h1]  
[link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-overperforming-2023-special-elections-clue-biden-trump/story?id=101850305]ABC News[/link]:
Looking ahead [link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/running-president-2024/story?id=96849127]to 2024[/link], Democrats concede some cause for concern — including President Joe Biden’s [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/]anemic approval rating[/link] and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html]Biden either ties or trails[/link], due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and [link=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/broad-doubts-bidens-age-acuity-spell-republican-opportunity/story?id=99109308]apprehension over Biden’s age and acuity[/link], which he has repeatedly dismissed.

But Democrats also say that based on 2023 so far, they see plenty of reason for optimism about their chances with voters.

An analysis from [i]FiveThirtyEight[/i] found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, [b]Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean or the relative liberal or conservative history of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties[/b], too.

 
This is important to note. Doubt they will ever get their heads out of their ***es but the Reps need to acknowledge this if they are ever going to leave Trump and the MAGA base.
 
Why the centrists matter.
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Unbelievable! 70% of Conservatives believe Biden is an illegitimate President who stole the election from the actual winner, Trump!
 
Yes, we can trust these people to support American democracy. Nothing to see, nothing to worry about.
 
[link=https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html]https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html[/link]

The share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who believe that [link=https://www.cnn.com/politics/joe-biden]President Joe Bidens[/link] 2020 election win was not legitimate has ticked back up, according to a [link=https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23895856-cnn-poll-on-biden-economy-and-elections]new CNN poll[/link] fielded throughout July. All told, 69% of Republicans and Republican-leaners say Bidens win was not legitimate, up from 63% earlier this year and through last fall, even as there is no evidence of election fraud that would have altered the outcome of the contest.

[satyanar]

Quote from Frumious

Unbelievable! 70% of Conservatives believe Biden is an illegitimate President who stole the election from the actual winner, Trump!

Yes, we can trust these people to support American democracy. Nothing to see, nothing to worry about.

[link=https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html]https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-think-2020-election-illegitimate/index.html[/link]

The share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who believe that [link=https://www.cnn.com/politics/joe-biden]President Joe Bidens[/link] 2020 election win was not legitimate has ticked back up, according to a [link=https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23895856-cnn-poll-on-biden-economy-and-elections]new CNN poll[/link] fielded throughout July. All told, 69% of Republicans and Republican-leaners say Bidens win was not legitimate, up from 63% earlier this year and through last fall, even as there is no evidence of election fraud that would have altered the outcome of the contest.

 
It’s pathetic and absolutely something to notice. Use it to win the election in a runaway. “These people” are not to be trusted. They are to be observed and trounced.
 
I’m not going to get into why the poll doesn’t show what you think it does because you wouldn’t understand it Frumi. It would just confuse you more into believing how ridiculous I am. Did you have fun tearing down your last straw man? You left once I pointed out your ignorance.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/06/gop-election-biden-trump-indictment-00109996]Politico[/link] –
[h2]2024 GOP hopefuls stuck talking about Trump.[/h2] Chris Christie: I want Republican voters to know,[b] this is a preview of the election coming up if Donald Trump is the nominee. [/b]Hell be talking about Donald Trump rather than Joe Biden. And what we should be focused on is talking about Joe Biden and his record, and thats why he cannot be the nominee.

Gov. Doug Bergum: When were out talking to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, theyre not asking about the indictments. If they want to, they can turn on a cable news network and watch that seven by 24.

____________

Teagan Goddard: [link=https://politicalwire.com/2023/08/02/were-headed-for-a-one-issue-election/]Were Headed for a One Issue Election[/link]

Unless something dramatic happens, next years election will be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Trump will likely be on trial or facing trial or perhaps hell already be convicted as the campaign grinds on next summer. The outcome of the election may determine whether he spends the rest of his life in federal prison.

[b]It will only be about Trumps guilt or innocence.[/b] [/QUOTE]
 
 

[btomba_77]

on the aftermath of Issue 1 — a collection of takes –

[h1]Ohio Vote Shows Abortions Potency to Reshape Elections[/h1]  
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/09/us/politics/ohio-election-abortion-voters.html]New York Times[/link]: For decades, a majority of Americans supported some form of legalized abortion. But the Supreme Courts Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade has shifted the political intensity on the issue, reshaping a once mostly-silent coalition of liberal, swing and moderate Republican voters into a political force.
Its a force Democrats are working hard to harness in elections across the country next year, often with ballot measures, and its a power Republicans have yet to figure out how to match, or at least manage.

___________

[h1]A Five-Alarm Fire for the Pro-Life Movement[/h1]  
[link=https://www.semafor.com/newsletter/08/09/2023/abortion-rights-win-again]Benjy Sarlin[/link]: The next Democratic trifecta in Washington seems more likely than not to reinstate Roe v. Wade via legislation, whether its two years or twenty years from now. And once that happens, there may not be a Republican majority with enough political will to ever fully reverse it at least not if elections keep looking like they did in Ohio on Tuesday night.
Those are the stakes, and as one social conservative put it as the votes came in, its a five-alarm fire for the pro-life movement.’

___________

Teagan Goddard: [link=https://politicalwire.com/2023/08/08/abortion-is-a-big-vote-loser-for-republicans/]Abortion Is a Big Vote Loser for Republicans
[/link]
Ive seen enough Republicans are in serious trouble over abortion.  The [link=https://politicalwire.com/2023/08/08/ohio-ballot-measure-fails/]overwhelming defeat[/link] of Ohio Issue 1 tonight which would have raised the threshold to pass a state constitutional amendment is just the latest data point. It seems highly likely that an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in Ohios state constitution will pass in November.
From the [link=https://politicalwire.com/2022/08/03/democrats-emboldened-after-kansas-abortion-vote/]referendum in Kansas last summer[/link] to [link=https://politicalwire.com/2023/05/17/republicans-keep-having-bad-elections/]special elections across the country[/link], fighting to preserve abortion rights issue has helped Democrats outperform virtually everywhere.
Roe v. Wade was an electoral gift to Republicans for more than forty years. Republicans could mobilize their anti-abortion base without triggering a backlash by the abortion rights majority.
The Supreme Court ended that.
_______________
 
 
abortion hasn’t lost any of its salience since the Dobbs ruling. It sure looks like it will still have impact in 2024.  
 

[adrianoal]

Quote from dergon

 
abortion hasn’t lost any of its salience since the Dobbs ruling. It sure looks like it will still have impact in 2024.  

 
not sure what the answer is for Republicans on abortion, and clearly they haven’t figured it out either
 
they’re like a dog that has been chasing a car forever, finally grabbed it and are now getting beaten to death by it

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Biden Looks to Expand the Map, Particularly North Carolina[/b][/h1]  
Joe Bidens team thinks his path to victory in 2024 could look an awful lot [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/2020-election-results/]like it did in 2020[/link]. But people close to the president believe that voters enthusiasm about abortion rights could also unlock new roads to another term, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/11/biden-world-2024-election-abortion-00110775]Politico[/link] reports.
 
The most straightforward route that those in Biden world see includes protecting the blue wall of Rust Belt states that were essential to his success three years ago, while preparing for repeat battles in the new swing states of Georgia and Arizona that he swiped from the Republican column.
 
Bidens aides also are [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/]moving to expand the map[/link]. Above all else, they believe North Carolina, where a 12-week abortion ban has gone into effect, is a legitimate pick-up opportunity and no longer Democratic fools gold.
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

The Federalist eyeing the lifeboats.
 
Rats from a sinking ship???
 
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/trump-jan-6-insurrection-conservatives.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/trump-jan-6-insurrection-conservatives.html[/link]

Two prominent conservative law professors have concluded that Donald J. Trump is ineligible to be president under a provision of the Constitution that bars people who have engaged in an insurrection from holding government office. The professors are active members of the Federalist Society, the conservative legal group, and proponents of originalism, the method of interpretation that seeks to determine the Constitutions original meaning.
 
The professors  [link=https://www.law.uchicago.edu/faculty/baude]William Baude[/link] of the University of Chicago and [link=https://law.stthomas.edu/about/faculty-staff/directory/michael-paulsen/]Michael Stokes Paulsen[/link] of the University of St. Thomas studied the question for more than a year and detailed their findings in [link=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4532751]a long article[/link] to be published next year in The University of Pennsylvania Law Review.
 
When we started out, neither of us was sure what the answer was, Professor Baude said. 
 
He summarized the articles conclusion: Donald Trump cannot be president cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office unless two-thirds of Congress decides to grant him amnesty for his conduct on Jan. 6.
 
There is, the article said, abundant evidence that Mr. Trump engaged in an insurrection, including by setting out to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election, trying to alter vote counts by fraud and intimidation, encouraging bogus slates of competing electors, pressuring the vice president to violate the Constitution, calling for the march on the Capitol and remaining silent for hours during the attack itself.
 

It is unquestionably fair to say that Trump engaged in the Jan. 6 insurrection through both his actions and his inaction, the article said.
 
[link=https://www.law.northwestern.edu/faculty/profiles/stevencalabresi/]Steven G. Calabresi[/link], a law professor at Northwestern and Yale and a founder of the Federalist Society, called the article a tour de force.