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2024 Presidential Election
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[h1][b]Big Majority Dont Want Trump to Run Again[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://apnorc.org/projects/trumps-legal-issues-have-little-impact-on-his-support/]AP-NORC poll[/link] finds that 70% of Americans, including 44% of Republicans, do not want Donald Trump to run for president again.
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Quote from dergon
[b]Big Majority Dont Want Trump to Run Again[/b]
A new [link=https://apnorc.org/projects/trumps-legal-issues-have-little-impact-on-his-support/]AP-NORC poll[/link] finds that 70% of Americans, including 44% of Republicans, do not want Donald Trump to run for president again.
He has that in common with Biden:
[link=https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/04/21/most-democrats-dont-want-biden-to-run-again-poll-finds-but-theyll-probably-vote-for-him-anyway/]https://www.forbes.com/si…y-vote-for-him-anyway/[/link]
[i]
The poll, conducted April 13-17 among 1,230 U.S. adults, found only 26% of respondents would like to see Biden run again in 2024, versus 73% who said he shouldnt.
That includes 47% of Democrats, while 52% of Democrats do not want him to run.[/i]
They are both sh1tty candidates.-
And yet ones a mountain of s*** and the other a molehill.
The most moderate candidate will win.
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[b]Another Biden-Trump Race Looks More Likely[/b]
Wall Street Journal: A second showdown, this time with Mr. Biden in the White House and Mr. Trump as the outsider, could determine how the U.S. proceeds in its support for Ukraines war against Russia and its work to counter the effects of climate change, as well as how it would balance domestic and military spending and economic policies at a time of high inflation.
A 2024 campaign would likely be different from the first encounter, when Mr. Biden limited his in-person campaign events and rallies because of the Covid-19 pandemic and Mr. Trump used the trappings of the White House in his campaign, often featuring Air Force One in the backdrop of airport rallies.
Mr. Biden is expected to open his re-election bid with a video announcement. Advisers are considering a Tuesday launch to coincide with the fourth anniversary of his entry into the Democratic primaries in 2019 Mr. Trump is planning a response to the announcement
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[b]Biden Announces Re-Election Bid[/b][/h1]
President Biden formally announced on Tuesday that he would seek a second term, arguing that American democracy still faces a profound threat from former President Donald Trump as he set up the possibility of a climactic rematch between the two next year, the [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/us/politics/biden-running-2024-president.html?smid=url-share]New York Times[/link] reports.
[link=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChjibtX0UzU&ab_channel=JoeBiden]In a video[/link] flashing images of a mob of Trump supporters storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, the president said that the fight for our democracy has been the work of my first term but is incomplete while his predecessor mounts a comeback campaign for his old office that Mr. Biden suggested would endanger fundamental rights.-
This a sad day if these two old white male clowns are the candidates the country has to offer. Where is Biden’s family, especially his wife, that they are going to let him run again? I guess the Biden Selling Access Syndicate is to good to pass up.
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[h1]Is Bidens Approval Too Weak for Him to Win?[/h1]
[link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/is-bidens-approval-rating-too-weak-for-him-to-win/]Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball[/link]:Generally speaking, a presidents approval rating is a decent guide to the share of the vote that president receives, although of course the historical sample size is not large. Table 1 shows the approval rating of recent incumbent presidents around the time of their second elections. We used FiveThirtyEights historical averages to compile this table, and we omitted Gerald Ford because he was not an incumbent seeking a second term and because there did not appear to be fresh approval polling around the time of his election. We first [link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-2/]compiled this table in 2019[/link], and we have since added Donald Trumps approval rating versus reelection performance to it.
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Wed expect Biden to run ahead of his approval rating, too, particularly if he remains mired in the low-to-mid 40s. The floor for both parties, barring a major and unexpected third-party run, is probably 45% or even higher. No major-party nominee in the 6 presidential elections held this century has dipped below that share.
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[b]Unless Bidens approval improves significantly, rising to around 50% or better by the time of his reelection, the soft Biden disapprovers are probably going to decide the election[/b]. If they vote against Biden en masse, he is likely doomed, particularly because Biden may have to win the popular vote by a few points in order to win if the current bias toward Republicans in the Electoral College endures. [b]But these cross-pressured voters are also going to consider what the alternative to Biden is[/b]. As we [link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-state-of-bidens-next-campaign/]noted[/link] after Bidens State of the Union address in early February, Biden is very reliant on the Republican Party nominating a presidential candidate who does not have much appeal to these voters and the GOP may deliver for Biden on that account.
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Quote from Ixrayu
This a sad day if these two old white male clowns are the candidates the country has to offer. Where is Biden’s family, especially his wife, that they are going to let him run again?
I think that Biden, and those around him, still believe that he is the best candidate (perhaps the only candidate) that is positioned to defeat Donald Trump, even with Biden’s decline since the 2020 campaign.
He’s not going to risk handing it off to Harris (a significant non-zero chance she ends up the nominee if Joe doesn’t run) when Trump poses what Democrats view as an existential threat to American democracy.
I believe that had Trump faded into the mist and been rejected by the Republicans in favor of a non-Trumpist “normal” Republican, Biden would have most likely stepped aside. But Trump, at least as of today, looks likely to win the GOP nomination … which means Biden feels bound to run.
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Regardless of how the dems “feel” he should run to beat Trump. Again I ask where is Jill Biden that she will allow this to happen? He cannot even answer a 12 yo question on a rope line. Have you seen him walk? His gait has changed quickly over the last two years.
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Trump is no better a candidate but at least energy, stamina, and his mind is much better than Biden.
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Quote from Ixrayu
Regardless of how the dems “feel” he should run to beat Trump. Again I ask where is Jill Biden that she will allow this to happen? He cannot even answer a 12 yo question on a rope line. Have you seen him walk? His gait has changed quickly over the last two years.
Joe Biden’s first term, even with his decline, has been one of the most successful in modern history.
He has surrounded himself with great people and has pushed through his agenda with remarkable skill .. better than anyone since Reagan … despite the narrowest of majorities.
It’s a successful Presidency and the second term likely to be successful as well, even with the anticipated decline.
There is no magic wand that can be waved in which Biden steps aside and Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg becomes the nominee. The risk that the Dem someone else is Harris … who will lose … likely is front of mind. I would be shocked if Jill Biden looked at the landscape and thought differently. So here we go with Joe 2.0
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Quote from dergon
I believe that had Trump faded into the mist and been rejected by the Republicans in favor of a non-Trumpist “normal” Republican, Biden would have most likely stepped aside. But Trump, at least as of today, looks likely to win the GOP nomination … which means Biden feels bound to run.
Sums it up well. He will win against Trump. Would have lost to a normal Republican.
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begging the question, what is a normal Republican? DeSantis? Cruz? Pence? Noem? Scott? Abbott? Christie?
begging the question, what are Republicans looking for?
Its not policy unless its tax cuts.-
Quote from Frumious
begging the question, what is a normal Republican? DeSantis? Cruz? Pence? Noem? Scott? Abbott? Christie?
begging the question, what are Republicans looking for?
Its not policy unless its tax cuts.
Haha. It was dergons quote. You should ask him. I almost added; of course they dont exist. -
Quote from Frumious
begging the question, what is a normal Republican?
DeSantis? No
Cruz? Yes
Pence? Yes
Noem? maybe … authoritarian anti-democratic bent .. hard to know if it’s just for the cameras
Scott? yes
Abbott? same as Noem
Christie? yes
The real normies …. Haley, Youngkin, Sununu etc … if it looked like a 3 way fight between those three as of today I’d bet Biden doesnt run
begging the question, what are Republicans looking for?
Its not policy unless its tax cuts.
The party has transformed. It is now mostly a party craving authoritarianism will ng the abandon democratic norms in order to keep hold on power in order to perpetuate *their* cultural/social desires despite being a minority of opinion.
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And at this time a normal Republican hasnt a snowballs chance in hell of being nominated. & without Trump, the question is how much support anyone would get from Republican voters. Anyone but the Democrat is not a guaranteed turnout for conservatives.
If it was not Trump, very possible even probable Biden would not run.
The problem fir both parties is who could first get nominated & seCond, who could actually win an election for POTUS.
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Quote from Frumious
And at this time a normal Republican hasnt a snowballs chance in hell of being nominated.
which, to bring it full circle .. is why Biden is running again
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i’m dergon and I approve this message
Jonathan Bernstein
[h3][link=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-25/presidential-election-2024-democrats-should-cheer-up-about-biden?srnd=premium]Democrats Should Cheer Up About Biden[/link][/h3]Bidens challenge throughout his presidency has been to make good on two very different promises he laid out in 2020: to restore normal government following the chaos of Donald Trumps presidency and to govern as a mainstream Democrat in a party that has become increasingly liberal over the last decade. For the most part, he has found ways to walk that line.
He has succeeded in large part by running a highly professional albeit strictly partisan White House and administration. The team has mostly avoided scandal. Just as important, the administration has dodged the kinds of leaks over policy in-fighting that often signal internal divisions. Its a sharp contrast with not only the constant chaos of the Trump administration but also with some troubled periods of the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton presidencies, when such clashes often foreshadowed policy failures.
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Biden himself is still prone to the gaffes that have always plagued him; that may be why he has been less likely to take [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/us/politics/biden-public-appearances-media.html]questions from the media[/link] than any president since Ronald Reagan.
But the importance of the public performance of the presidency is generally overrated even in its effect on presidential popularity. Reagan is a good example: His public performance was largely the same in his first, second and third years, when he was unpopular; in the next three years and final year, when he was extremely popular; and in his seventh year, where he was only moderately popular. What drove his standing with voters were events scandal, inflation, recession or boom, Cold War or diplomacy.
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Its far too early to gauge how Bidens approach will work now that Republicans have taken control of the House. Bidens first two years certainly dont compare to, say, 2009-2010 or 1965-1966, two especially productive terms where Democrats controlled both chambers in Congress and the White House. While Bidens occasional declarations that he was going to solve Congresss partisan polarization by the sheer force of his decades of experience in the Senate were, ahem, malarkey, its fair to give him strong marks for working with Capitol Hill, including with Republicans.
Similarly, Biden assembled strong, well-managed teams to run foreign policy, domestic matters and the economy. Having talented staff and good process didnt prevent problems such as the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan or surging inflation last year, nor has it solved longstanding policy stalemates in areas such as the border, drugs or guns. But Biden and his team have done a first-rate job keeping the alliance together in supporting Ukraine. And presidents dont have much sway over the economy, especially in the short run: Biden was no more responsible for the painful acceleration in inflation than he was deserving of credit for the buoyant job market.
All of this has also gone a long way toward fulfilling the other half of Bidens pledge, to return to normal government. He wont fully achieve that without Republicans doing their part, and conservative media is determined to make it seem that Biden and his allies cant be trusted. But in truth, White House politics have been pretty dull since January 20, 2021, which is exactly how normal should be. Its no surprise that the scandal that Republicans are pushing the hardest the presidents sons laptop isnt about the Biden presidency at all.
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{E}xperience is a real plus, and so far, the balance has clearly been on the good side.
Whether that will last if Biden, now 80, spends another five-plus years in the White House is anybodys guess. The hard truth for Democrats is that they made this choice long ago. A party isnt going to repudiate its incumbent president, so nominating Biden in 2020 meant that Democrats would likely be nominating him again in 2024.
But for now, all parties can ask of their presidents is that they represent the party well and that they are good at the job of president. Biden has accomplished both.[/QUOTE]
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He has the centrists to thank for keeping him a moderate despite wanting to go left. They will continue to support him as long as the Reps go more right.
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Expected but .
bernie sanders announces he will not run in24, endorses Biden
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[h1][b]”The Haters” Dislike Trump More[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/25/biden-disapproval-rating-reelection-weakness/]Marc Thiessen[/link]: So, what happens if voters are forced to choose between two candidates they dont want?
A [link=https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_April_2023_redacted.pdf]Wall Street Journal poll[/link] (conducted by pro-Trump super PAC pollster Tony Fabrizio) suggests the answer: It found that among voters who disapprove of both Trump and Biden, Biden leads Trump by a massive 39 points: 54 percent to 15 percent. Clearly, swing voters who dislike Biden dislike Trump even more.
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Swing voters to the rescue.
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First ad of the campaign nailed it. Team Biden comes out swinging.
[link=https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1651202126519971844]https://twitter.com/Mediu…us/1651202126519971844[/link]
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[link=https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/the-gops-weird-deep-fake-campaign]https://morningshots.theb…ird-deep-fake-campaign[/link]
Charlie Sykes on the RNCs moronic response to the Biden launch:
[h1]The GOP’s Weird Deep Fake Campaign[/h1]
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Lets stipulate that Biden has a number of vulnerabilities, including inflation, the border, crime, etc. Some bad stuff (Afghanistan) has happened on his watch. There has been a lot of spending.
But instead of focusing on that real stuff, our [link=https://presspass.thebulwark.com/p/republicans-befuddled-by-2024-abortion]Joe Perticone reported yesterday[/link], the Republican National Committee went with an artificial intelligence-generated video filled with disaster scenarios they believe could befall the country if Biden wins another termthings like China invading Taiwan, financial markets going into freefall, border agents being overrun by a surge of 80,000 illegals, and, bizarrely, San Francisco being closed because of drugs and crime. (That last hypothetical includes an image of a cigarette-smoking man with MS-13 tattooed in gothic script across his forehead. Subtle, the ad is not.)…
The video is strange not just because of the simultaneously eerie and goofy AI-generated images, but also because of the premisethe idea that another four years of Biden could potentially result in apocalyptic problems. Its certainly a far cry from a more typical political message challenging an incumbent: [i]Bad stuff has happened because of this administration, but our candidate will put a stop to it.[/i]
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David Frum predicting a Republican blowout.
[link=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump/673856/]https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump/673856/[/link]The big new Republican idea to [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fentanyl-00091132]halt the flow of drugs[/link] is to bomb or invade Mexico. Instead of reassuring women, Republican state legislators and Republican judges are signaling that they will support a national abortion ban if their party wins in 2024and are already building the apparatus of surveillance and control necessary to make such a ban effective. Republican state-level voter-suppression schemes have been noisy and alarming when the GOP plan called for them to be subtle and technical.
Its early in the election cycle, of course, but not too early to wonder: Are we watching a Republican electoral disaster in the making?
Bidens poll numbers are only so-so. But a presidential election offers a stark and binary choice: This or that? Biden may fall short of some voters imagined ideal of a president, but in 2024, voters wont be comparing the Democrat with that ideal. They will be comparing him with the Republican alternative.
[b]An American must be at least 36 years old to have participated in an election in which the Republican candidate for president won the most votes. An American must be at least 52 years old to have participated in [i]two[/i] presidential elections in which the Republican nominee got the most votes.[/b]
Despite this, over the past 30 years, the GOP has succeeded in leveraging its smaller share of the vote into a larger share of national power. That same 36-year-old American has lived half of his or her adult life under a Republican-controlled Senate, and even more of it under a Republican-majority House of Representatives. Through almost all of that Americans adult life, Republicans have held more than half of all state legislatures. Conservative dominance of the federal courts has become ever more total in the past two decades, culminating in the Supreme Courts reversal of [i]Roe v. Wade[/i].
[b]Some of the Republicans leverage can be explained by the American electoral systems tilt against metropolitan areas. Some of their success is due to luck. The GOPs big year of 2010 also happened to be a redistricting year, so one successful election translated into a decade of more comprehensively gerrymandered state legislatures. [/b][i](Democrats have not had a big win in a redistricting year since 1930.)[/i]
Trump-era Republicans have difficulty absorbing and reacting to negative news. Led by Trump himself, they misrepresented 2016 as[link=https://twitter.com/kellyannepolls/status/803336493469204481]in the words[/link] of his former adviser Kellyanne Conwaya blowout, historic landslide. They misrepresented 2020 as an election that they deservedly won, but that was stolen from them by fraud and chicanery. Out-of-office Republicans like Paul Ryan [link=https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/01/12/paul-ryan-jake-tapper-trump-gop-lead-sot-2-vpx.cnn]will acknowledge[/link] on CNN that Trump lost. But they wont say it on Fox News. Trumps own leading party rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, [link=https://www.wfla.com/news/politics/desantis-wont-say-if-he-thinks-2020-election-was-stolen/]wont say it[/link]. And if Trump is indeed the primary winner that he insists he is, what on Earth is the case for denying this political superstar the third nomination he wants?
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Frum your lips to god’s ears 😉
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Of all the major-party candidates to run for president since 2000, only one scored worse than Trump in the popular vote: John McCain in 2008. That was not a personal verdict on McCain. He was running for a third Republican term in the throes of the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression and against the backdrop of the most grinding military frustration since Vietnam.
If Trump secures the GOP nomination to run for a second term in 2024, the conditions are all in place to transfer the title of worst popular-vote loser of the century from the great Arizona senator to the putsch-plotting ex-president. Trumps own party is doing its part to deliver this debacle. Soon enough, all Americans will have the opportunity to do theirs.
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Quote from dergon
Frum your lips to god’s ears 😉
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Of all the major-party candidates to run for president since 2000, only one scored worse than Trump in the popular vote: John McCain in 2008. That was not a personal verdict on McCain. He was running for a third Republican term in the throes of the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression and against the backdrop of the most grinding military frustration since Vietnam.
If Trump secures the GOP nomination to run for a second term in 2024, the conditions are all in place to transfer the title of worst popular-vote loser of the century from the great Arizona senator to the putsch-plotting ex-president. Trumps own party is doing its part to deliver this debacle. Soon enough, all Americans will have the opportunity to do theirs.
I guess you like it a lot more when others say what Ive been saying for years.
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Quote from Frumious
David Frum predicting a Republican blowout.
[link=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump/673856/]https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump/673856/[/link]
The big new Republican idea to [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fentanyl-00091132]halt the flow of drugs[/link] is to bomb or invade Mexico. Instead of reassuring women, Republican state legislators and Republican judges are signaling that they will support a national abortion ban if their party wins in 2024and are already building the apparatus of surveillance and control necessary to make such a ban effective. Republican state-level voter-suppression schemes have been noisy and alarming when the GOP plan called for them to be subtle and technical.
Its early in the election cycle, of course, but not too early to wonder: Are we watching a Republican electoral disaster in the making?
Bidens poll numbers are only so-so. But a presidential election offers a stark and binary choice: This or that? Biden may fall short of some voters imagined ideal of a president, but in 2024, voters wont be comparing the Democrat with that ideal. They will be comparing him with the Republican alternative.
[b]An American must be at least 36 years old to have participated in an election in which the Republican candidate for president won the most votes. An American must be at least 52 years old to have participated in [i]two[/i] presidential elections in which the Republican nominee got the most votes.[/b]
Despite this, over the past 30 years, the GOP has succeeded in leveraging its smaller share of the vote into a larger share of national power. That same 36-year-old American has lived half of his or her adult life under a Republican-controlled Senate, and even more of it under a Republican-majority House of Representatives. Through almost all of that Americans adult life, Republicans have held more than half of all state legislatures. Conservative dominance of the federal courts has become ever more total in the past two decades, culminating in the Supreme Courts reversal of [i]Roe v. Wade[/i].
[b]Some of the Republicans leverage can be explained by the American electoral systems tilt against metropolitan areas. Some of their success is due to luck. The GOPs big year of 2010 also happened to be a redistricting year, so one successful election translated into a decade of more comprehensively gerrymandered state legislatures. [/b][i](Democrats have not had a big win in a redistricting year since 1930.)[/i]
Trump-era Republicans have difficulty absorbing and reacting to negative news. Led by Trump himself, they misrepresented 2016 as[link=https://twitter.com/kellyannepolls/status/803336493469204481]in the words[/link] of his former adviser Kellyanne Conwaya blowout, historic landslide. They misrepresented 2020 as an election that they deservedly won, but that was stolen from them by fraud and chicanery. Out-of-office Republicans like Paul Ryan [link=https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/01/12/paul-ryan-jake-tapper-trump-gop-lead-sot-2-vpx.cnn]will acknowledge[/link] on CNN that Trump lost. But they wont say it on Fox News. Trumps own leading party rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, [link=https://www.wfla.com/news/politics/desantis-wont-say-if-he-thinks-2020-election-was-stolen/]wont say it[/link]. And if Trump is indeed the primary winner that he insists he is, what on Earth is the case for denying this political superstar the third nomination he wants?
Those pesky swing voters, centrists, moderates, independents all ready to deliver a Republican beat down. You heard it from me first years ago. For whatever reason you couldnt accept it from me. Glad you and dergon are finally listening when someone else writes it.
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Quote from Thread Enhancer
Swing voters to the rescue.
It is not as if the swing voters, swinging right then left have much to do with it perhaps. After all, in national POTUS elections in the past 30 years, Republicans have won 3 out of 5 elections but only 1 of those have been because they won the popular vote. So 7 out of 8 popular vote elections went to the Democrats.
Not exactly a winning strategy regardless of swing voters. If anything, it’s the Electoral College giving the edge to rural states, not so much swing voters.-
Quote from Frumious
Quote from Thread Enhancer
Swing voters to the rescue.
It is not as if the swing voters, swinging right then left have much to do with it perhaps. After all, in national POTUS elections in the past 30 years, Republicans have won 3 out of 5 elections but only 1 of those have been because they won the popular vote. So 7 out of 8 popular vote elections went to the Democrats.
Not exactly a winning strategy regardless of swing voters. If anything, it’s the Electoral College giving the edge to rural states, not so much swing voters.
You arguing my point for me again and thinking you are proving me wrong?
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Trump Could Absolutely Beat Biden[/h1]
[link=https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/we-support-trump-because-you-made?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=87274&post_id=117671995&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email]Jonathan Last[/link]: No matter who the nominees are, the chances of one major-party candidate beating another dont get much further apart than 65-35. That is the reality of our system, no matter how strong the one is and how weak the other is.
If youre playing 1,000 hands of blackjack you feel awesome about 65-35 odds. But for a one-time outcome? When the stakes are high? Even 65-35 is equivalent to a coin flip and it ought to scare the crap out of you.-
It’s not a coin flip. 65-35 are not “odds”. There are voters involved. They hate Trump a lot more than Biden at about a rate of 65-35. That 65 will never change their mind now that everyone knows who Trump is.
I get the fear though. Last thing we want is another complacent electorate.-
Hahaha. I read the first part before I hit the paywall. He’s arguing the Frumi proof!
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Andrew C. McCarthy: [link=https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/04/why-trump-cant-win/]writing in National Review[/link]:
No, I am not playing along. At this point, I concede only that we cannot say with certainty who will be elected president in November 2024or even who the nominee will be for either party. That said, I am as certain as I am writing this that Donald Trump will never again be elected president of these United States.[/QUOTE]
[link=https://damonlinker.substack.com/p/of-course-trump-can-win-in-2024]Damon [/link][color=”#0782c1″][u]Linker: responds[/u][/color]:
[h1]Of Course Trump Can Win in 2024[/h1] [h3]Republican brains are breaking as they contemplate being lashed to the Orange Man once again[/h3]
Andrew C. McCarthy has written an utterly unpersuasive [link=https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/04/why-trump-cant-win/]essay[/link] for [i]National Review[/i] that expresses a view that risks becoming the conventional unwisdom of our political moment. One hears it regularly now among (occasionally) anti-Trump conservatives. Its also repeated among very online progressives and certain Democratic Party strategists and consultants, who are united in considering Florida Governor Ron DeSantis both more dangerous (because more competent),[link=https://damonlinker.substack.com/p/of-course-trump-can-win-in-2024#footnote-1-118848218]1[/link] and a more formidable general-election challenger to President Joe Biden, than former President Donald Trump.
The view McCarthy articulated is this: Trump cant win. Thats it. Thats the irritable mental gesture in its entiretyOne hears it regularly now among (occasionally) anti-Trump conservatives. Its also repeated among very online progressives and certain Democratic Party strategists and consultants, who are united in considering Florida Governor Ron DeSantis both more dangerous (because more competent),[link=https://damonlinker.substack.com/p/of-course-trump-can-win-in-2024#footnote-1-118848218]1[/link] and a more formidable general-election challenger to President Joe Biden, than former President Donald Trump.
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I want to demonstrate not only that Trump [i]can [/i]win the presidency in 2024, but that hell have a decent shot of doing so. I wont try to state the probability in mathematical terms. Im not Nate Silver, and, [link=https://www.semafor.com/article/05/01/2023/abc-news-struggles-to-replace-nate-silver]like ABC News[/link], I dont own his forecasting models. (Its also much too early to use them efficaciously.) But Im pretty much with [i][link=https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/we-support-trump-because-you-made?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=87274&post_id=117671995&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email]The Bulwarks[/link][/i][link=https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/we-support-trump-because-you-made?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=87274&post_id=117671995&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email] Jonathan Last in thinking[/link] that GOP nominee Trump would probably fall somewhere between a 35 and 50 percent chance of winning in 2024. He certainly wouldnt be a shoo-in. He could certainly lose. But he could also win. It could be a coin toss. Or maybe like having two blue chips and one red chip in your pocket and pulling out the red one. Events with those kinds of odds happen every day.
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[h4][b]Whats Really Going on Here -[/b][/h4]
This is just speculation, of course, but I think it happened because of severe cognitive stress brought on by an intense desire to avoid having to face the prospect of voting once again for Donald Trump in 2024. Note that, just after declaring, Donald Trump will never again be elected president of these United States, and just before admitting he voted for him in 2016 and 2020, McCarthy tells us in the following words that he wont vote for him again in 2024: I could no longer in good conscience vote for Trump. Thats a peculiar formulation. Why not can no longer or will no longer? Why make it sound like something conditional or imagined or wished for rather than a statement of fact?
The answer, I suspect, is that McCarthys entire column is a prayer or a plea written in the form of a piece of dispassionate analysis. He isnt telling us how the world [i]is[/i]. Hes telling how it [i]ought to be[/i]. Hes not describing [i]political reality[/i]. Hes prescribing the way political reality [i]should be[/i]. The column isnt a declarative piece of writing. Its a normative one.
[b]
[/b]
[i]Please, Lord, Im a Republican. I detest the Democrats. Dont force me to choose between casting a ballot for Biden and voting once again for this horrible, dangerous, unfit, incompetent, malicious, narcissistically damaged imbecile! Because if that is the choice, I fear I will do the latter! Please give me a better option! Save me from myself![/i]
[i]
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Sorry, Andrew McCarthy, but no one (or One) is going to intervene to save you from having to make this decision. At the moment, Trump looks like hes on track to win the Republican nomination. If he does, you will need to make a choice in November 2024. If Im right that you fear youll end up supporting your party in the breach, you can at least seek solace in the knowledge that you will have a lot of company.
Which, come to think of it, is just another bit of evidence that Donald Trump most certainly [i]can[/i] win the presidency again.
[/QUOTE]
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The only reason Trump “could win” is because the Dems don’t have unassailable candidate. Pretty incredible isn’t it?
You have the worst human being on the planet who is a threat to our democracy and the Dems are busy trying to apologize in advance for a “possible” outcome that 60-70% of the electorate does not want.
First, it’s not going to happen. There are not enough people that will vote for Trump this time and say “you made me do it”. This is another straw man of the left. That’s not what moderates are saying BTW. They are saying “give me the moderate candidate you promised. Trump is not it.” -
Quote from dergon
[i]Please, Lord, Im a Republican. I detest the Democrats. Dont force me to choose between casting a ballot for Biden and voting once again for this horrible, dangerous, unfit, incompetent, malicious, narcissistically damaged imbecile! Because if that is the choice, I fear I will do the latter! Please give me a better option! Save me from myself![/i]
[i]
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Sorry, Andrew McCarthy, but no one (or One) is going to intervene to save you from having to make this decision. At the moment, Trump looks like hes on track to win the Republican nomination. If he does, you will need to make a choice in November 2024. [b]If Im right that you fear youll end up supporting your party in the breach, you can at least seek solace in the knowledge that you will have a lot of company.[/b]Which, come to think of it, is just another bit of evidence that Donald Trump most certainly [i]can[/i] win the presidency again.
Yes, this is the argument the Dems need to win if they can live with the unthinkable. The big “if”.
Well he is not “right”. Are there some that will make that decision? Probably, However, not nearly enough.
I’m fine with the Dems scaring everyone who opposes Trump trying to make them think he can win. It’s smart. The worst case is all of those people get complacent and not vote in 2024. Not going to happen but fear is a wonderful motivator.
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Quote from dergon
[link=https://damonlinker.substack.com/p/of-course-trump-can-win-in-2024]Damon [/link][color=”#0782c1″][u]Linker: responds[/u][/color]:
Andrew C. McCarthy has written an utterly unpersuasive [link=https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/04/why-trump-cant-win/]essay[/link] for [i]National Review[/i] that expresses a view that risks becoming the conventional unwisdom of our political moment.One hears it regularly now among (occasionally) anti-Trump conservatives.
This is just speculation, of course, but I think it happened because of severe cognitive stress brought on by an intense desire to avoid having to face the prospect of voting once again for Donald Trump in 2024. Note that, just after declaring, Donald Trump will never again be elected president of these United States, and just before admitting he voted for him in 2016 and 2020, McCarthy tells us in the following words that he wont vote for him again in 2024: I could no longer in good conscience vote for Trump. Thats a peculiar formulation. Why not can no longer or will no longer? Why make it sound like something conditional or imagined or wished for rather than a statement of fact?
The answer, I suspect, is that McCarthys entire column is a prayer or a plea written in the form of a piece of dispassionate analysis. He isnt telling us how the world [i]is[/i]. Hes telling how it [i]ought to be[/i]. Hes not describing [i]political reality[/i]. Hes prescribing the way political reality [i]should be[/i]. The column isnt a declarative piece of writing. Its a normative one.
[i]Please, Lord, Im a Republican. I detest the Democrats. Dont force me to choose between casting a ballot for Biden and voting once again for this horrible, dangerous, unfit, incompetent, malicious, narcissistically damaged imbecile! Because if that is the choice, I fear I will do the latter! Please give me a better option! Save me from myself![/i] [i]
[/i]
Sorry, Andrew McCarthy, but no one (or One) is going to intervene to save you from having to make this decision. At the moment, Trump looks like hes on track to win the Republican nomination. If he does, you will need to make a choice in November 2024. If Im right that you fear youll end up supporting your party in the breach, you can at least seek solace in the knowledge that you will have a lot of company.A “moderate” Republican is an oxymoron. If they were truly moderate, this extremist candidate would repel them to no end.
Andrew McCarthy thus proving my argument that “moderates,” occasional or otherwise rationalizing, will not, cannot be relied upon to prevent Trump’s re-election as they are too willing to vote for Trump – again, the 3rd time regardless of everything he is and was and has done.
It is not Republicans, ex, “moderate” or otherwise who will save us from a 2nd Trump term. As he bragged about being able to shoot someone on 5th Avenue in NYC & that acftion would not cost him a single vote, all these comments by alleged moderates only confirm they are too willing to pull the lever for him again. There is nothing bad enough for Trump to do to get them to vote against him.
Consider, even all the Jan 6th defendants don’t think of themselves as extremists, they are all moderate patriots.
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The hobby posters at it again.
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from dergon
[link=https://damonlinker.substack.com/p/of-course-trump-can-win-in-2024]Damon [/link][color=”#0782c1″][u]Linker: responds[/u][/color]:
Andrew C. McCarthy has written an utterly unpersuasive [link=https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/04/why-trump-cant-win/]essay[/link] for [i]National Review[/i] that expresses a view that risks becoming the conventional unwisdom of our political moment.One hears it regularly now among (occasionally) anti-Trump conservatives.
This is just speculation, of course, but I think it happened because of severe cognitive stress brought on by an intense desire to avoid having to face the prospect of voting once again for Donald Trump in 2024. Note that, just after declaring, Donald Trump will never again be elected president of these United States, and just before admitting he voted for him in 2016 and 2020, McCarthy tells us in the following words that he wont vote for him again in 2024: I could no longer in good conscience vote for Trump. Thats a peculiar formulation. Why not can no longer or will no longer? Why make it sound like something conditional or imagined or wished for rather than a statement of fact?
The answer, I suspect, is that McCarthys entire column is a prayer or a plea written in the form of a piece of dispassionate analysis. He isnt telling us how the world [i]is[/i]. Hes telling how it [i]ought to be[/i]. Hes not describing [i]political reality[/i]. Hes prescribing the way political reality [i]should be[/i]. The column isnt a declarative piece of writing. Its a normative one.
[i]Please, Lord, Im a Republican. I detest the Democrats. Dont force me to choose between casting a ballot for Biden and voting once again for this horrible, dangerous, unfit, incompetent, malicious, narcissistically damaged imbecile! Because if that is the choice, I fear I will do the latter! Please give me a better option! Save me from myself![/i] [i]
[/i]
Sorry, Andrew McCarthy, but no one (or One) is going to intervene to save you from having to make this decision. At the moment, Trump looks like hes on track to win the Republican nomination. If he does, you will need to make a choice in November 2024. If Im right that you fear youll end up supporting your party in the breach, you can at least seek solace in the knowledge that you will have a lot of company.A “moderate” Republican is an oxymoron. If they were truly moderate, this extremist candidate would repel them to no end.
Andrew McCarthy thus proving my argument that “moderates,” occasional or otherwise rationalizing, will not, cannot be relied upon to prevent Trump’s re-election as they are too willing to vote for Trump – again, the 3rd time regardless of everything he is and was and has done.
It is not Republicans, ex, “moderate” or otherwise who will save us from a 2nd Trump term. As he bragged about being able to shoot someone on 5th Avenue in NYC & that acftion would not cost him a single vote, all these comments by alleged moderates only confirm they are too willing to pull the lever for him again. There is nothing bad enough for Trump to do to get them to vote against him.
Consider, even all the Jan 6th defendants don’t think of themselves as extremists, they are all moderate patriots.
And look at that! The hobby poster has won the “my team is better than yours” argument.
Now can we please get back to figuring out how to improve our democracy and with that our lives and country? my vote is for moderation, but you all knew that.
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I do not share their enthusiasm …
[h1]Democratic Donors Thrilled Trump Is Running[/h1]
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-02/rich-democratic-donors-feel-bullish-on-biden-trump-rematch?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics&leadSource=uverify%20wall]Bloomberg[/link]: Many of President Joe Bidens biggest contributors are heartened by Trumps emergence as the Republican frontrunner and are hoping for a 2020 rematch. Pitting the current president against his predecessor would create a race that they say advantages Biden politically, policy-wise and from a fundraising perspective.
Having Trump on the ticket will motivate the networks of wealthy contributors who can write big checks, according to several Biden donors, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Trump as the GOP nominee would also allow Biden to tap some financial support from conservatives who would otherwise be open to giving to a business-friendly Republican, one donor said.
Going up against his predecessor is also a motivating factor for Biden, who views stopping Trump as his patriotic duty. Trumps emergence as the Republican frontrunner raises the stakes of the election making it fundamentally about safeguarding US democracy and rendering donations to Biden a no-brainer, according to another large contributor who said he had concerns about the presidents age and had previously hoped for a younger alternative.
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We know dergon. We know.
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“Americans are unhappy with the choice between regular visits to the dentist or all their teeth falling out.”
~ David Frum, on voter dissatisfaction over the possibility of a Biden v. Trump rematch.
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Nobody wants that rematch. At least the outcome is known if it happens.
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I don’t think his answer will be 1.
However, I could be wrong so I’d like to hear from him. Your speculation does not mean much to me. You tell people here all of the time what someone else’s opinion or argument is.
2. Is the way a lot of people I know feel. You are correct. That’s a key part of the stat. You can also throw in almost all of the independents and even some moderate Reps. Yes, I know Frumi, there are so few.-
What do you all think of RFK Jr? Besides his across-the-board anti-vax opinions and some conspiracy theories, he seems like a reasonable person who cares about the direction of the country.
He did a 2 hour discussion with The All-In Podcast the other day that is a good listen. (Anybody else listen to that Pod? It’s very good)-
His own family thinks he is crazy and arent voting for him
He is like the oldest son on succession
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He’s Tulsi Gabbard 2.0
He’s nominally a Democrat but he only discusses issues that Republicans want to talk about, and frames them in a way meant to tear down the Democratic party and its leadership.
He’s the kind of Democrat who mostly gets covered by conservative media and when Republicans see him on Fox they say “Wow! This guy really tells it like it is. I could vote for a Democrat if they were all like this!” (Even though in their heart they know they’re voting Republican no matter what)
He has the Kennedy name, so he can probably get some decent poll numbers from low-information Dems and/or disaffected Bernie bros registering a “We don’t want Joe” protest vote.
But there’s no way the DNC is going to give him any oxygen by treating him like a normal candidate. … And he’s weird enough that I doubt he gets some big Bernie-like cult following.
Much like Tulsi, his supporters will most be people who dislike the Democratic party … and that’s not enough to get much done inside the Democratic party. And he will learn, just like Tulsi did, that Democrats like Democrats and the Democratic party and will not take kindly to insiders trying to harm their chances.-
Hes nominally a Democrat?
In what way? What policies do you disagree with him on?
His anti-censorship stance and anti-divisiveness is what mostly appeals to me. Same with Tulsi.
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He’s his father when his father worked for Joe McCarthy, not exactly a luminary. He’s “anti-corporate” without defining what that means & what he would do or like to do. Anti-woke corporate??? Republican in sheep’s clothing.
His only real defining “idea” is being anti-vaxx, something that should be anathema on a so-called medical BB. He’s a jerk & an idiot. Like Tulsi, attractive to Republicans who only like his criticisms of Democrats, nothing else.
He’s the opposite of what his father became after being AG under his brother AND the experience of living through his brother’s murder which made him much more empathetic about all the issues that still plague us like inequality and race.
I’d vote in a minute for RFK. But never for RFK. Jr. He’s a shadow. -
As I said above, it’s about *which* issues he chooses to focus on that makes him Tulsi.
You can be pro-choice, but if you instead spend your time on the campaign trail talking about opposition for support for Ukraine, you’re not a helpful Democrat.
You can be in favor of green energy, but if instead you spend your time in interviews focusing on how you want to prosecute public health officials over the Biden Covid response, you’re not a helpful Democrat.
You can favor provessive taxation, but if you instead focus on how you want to ban trans athletes from athletic competitions, youre not a helpful Democrat.
You’re a “Fox News Democrat.” … Tulsi Gabbard. (See also: Doug Schoen)
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Like I said, an idiot. A Republican in sheep’s clothing.
Several members from his close family have distanced themselves from his anti-vaccination activities and condemned Kennedy’s comments equating public health measures with [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism]Nazi[/link] atrocities.[link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-217][216][/link][/sup] On May 8, 2019, [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Kennedy_Townsend]Kathleen Kennedy Townsend[/link], [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy_II]Joseph P. Kennedy[/link] and [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maeve_Kennedy_McKean]Maeve Kennedy McKean[/link] wrote an open letter stating that while their relative has championed many admirable causes, he “has helped to spread dangerous misinformation over social media and is complicit in sowing distrust of the science behind vaccines”.[link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-ff-218][217][/link][/sup] On December 30, 2020, Kennedy’s niece Kerry Kennedy Meltzer, a physician, wrote a similar open letter. She argued her uncle published misinformation about the side effects of the new COVID-19 vaccines.[link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-219][218][/link][/sup]
On June 4, 2019, during a visit to [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samoa]Samoa[/link] coinciding with that nation’s 57th annual independence celebration, Kennedy appeared in an Instagram photo with Australian-Samoan anti-vaccine activist [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Winterstein]Taylor Winterstein[/link]. Kennedy’s charity and Winterstein have both perpetuated the allegation that the [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMR_vaccine]MMR vaccine[/link] played a role in the 2018 deaths of two Samoan infants, despite the subsequent revelation that the infants had received a [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscle_relaxant]muscle relaxant[/link] along with the vaccine by mistake. Kennedy has drawn criticism for fueling [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_hesitancy]vaccine hesitancy[/link] amid a social climate which gave rise to the [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Samoa_measles_outbreak]2019 Samoa measles outbreak[/link], which killed over 70 people, and the [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Tonga_measles_outbreak]2019 Tonga measles outbreak[/link].[link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-220][219][/link][/sup][link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-221][220][/link][/sup] On February 11, 2021, his [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instagram]Instagram[/link] account was permanently deleted “for repeatedly sharing debunked claims” about [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine]COVID-19 vaccines[/link].[link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-222][221][/link][/sup][link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.#cite_note-223][222][/link][/sup][/sup]
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Lol dergon thinks biological male trans female athletes should be allowed to complete against biological females.
You really are an NPC that believes whatever the media tells you to
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[link=https://twitter.com/salltweets/status/1655675810572013570?s=46&t=Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw]https://twitter.com/sallt…Rf5Slh6vTdZ1HlG6L2Fkcw[/link]
She knows 💗 pic.twitter.com/SDvECIwG8Z
— Sall Grover (@salltweets) May 8, 2023
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BTW, Tulsi hasnt changed from when she was an up-and-coming Democrat darling. Shes the same liberal shes always been. The Democrat party has just taken a hard turn towards authoritarianism and divisiveness. She just refused to go along with it. Like Joe Rogan. Like Elon Musk. Like RFK Jr. Which is why the NPC dems hate all of them now
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No. She’s not. She knows her audience now …
[link=https://texasrighttolife.com/former-democrat-tulsi-gabbard-advocates-for-life-urges-voters-to-reject-abortion-till-birth-mandate/] U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard introduces anti-abortion bills[/link]
(this was a complete BS show in Dec. of 2020 after she had already resigned from Congress and been exiled by the Democratic party)
[link=https://www.advocate.com/news/2022/4/05/tulsi-gabbard-thinks-florida-dont-say-gay-law-doesnt-go-far-enough] Tulsi Gabbard Thinks Fla.’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Law Doesn’t Go Far Enough
[/link]
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Michigans draconian Proposal 3 thats on the ballot includes legal loopholes that allow late-term and partial birth abortions, which essentially is really infanticide, Gabbard explained.
Wow, how regressive.
NPCs like dergon think that unless you walk in lockstep with every single policy TheParty advocates*, you are the enemy.
(*Like 100% unwavering support for unlimited resources for the Ukraine war, abortions up until the second of birth no questions asked, pro censorship for those questioning TheParty, trans women being allowed to dominate womens sports, etc, etc. Any hesitation on any topic is not allowed, or you are not a good NPC Democrat)
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Kennedy will 1% in a Democratic primary
He is Connor Roy from Succession
The idiot son
The republicans who think this person is somehow viable as a candidate is one with no understanding of the country and strictly living in a crazy far right media bubble
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Watch that new episode of the all in podcast I referenced if you think it is a far right media bubble. It is four billionaire entrepreneurs, three of them are liberal, and one of whom is conservative, in a discussion with RFK Junior
[link]https://youtu.be/nA0OXZuaG0g[/link]
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Quote from acpce1
The Democrat party has just taken a hard turn towards authoritarianism and divisiveness.
HAHAHA!!!
That is the most hilarious thing, the party Fascist Conservatives who are – present tense – doing their best to undo American democracy & open elections DETERMINED BY VOTERS, not the Conservative politicians, who have accused Democrats of being milquetoasts for decades, who since Obama have declared open admiration of Putin, even arguing hes preferred to be our president, who now declare open admiration for Viktor Orbán are now calling Dems authoritarian!
HAHAHAYou are a comedian!
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Seriously does anyone watch Succession
Is RFK jr -Connor Roy
Its uncanny
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Did you not live in America the last three years? Biden screaming with fists clenched behind red curtains that anyone who votes Republican is a threat to democracy? Biden screaming about about winter of death and screaming for mandates? Blue locale forced business closures and school closures for up to two years? And the blatant first amendment violations by the government pressuring social media companies to censor Americans? 51 members of the intelligence community conspiring to censor the truth about the democrat presidential candidate and his son and their business dealings with foreign governments?
You people act like trying to ensure that each vote is cast by an individual American citizen is authoritarian.
Open admiration for Putin?. Give me a break. Did he invade under Trump? He would not have dared. .
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Quote from acpce1
Lol dergon thinks biological male trans female athletes should be allowed to complete against biological females.
You really are an NPC that believes whatever the media tells you to
I didn’t weigh an opinion.
But your immediate and delighted response says *exactly* why it’s unhelpful for a “Democrat” to focus on that issue. … because it’s a wedge issue that divides Democrats and gives Republicans the high ground. Democrats think that trans issues are for the most a ginned up non-issue meant to fire up the GOP base and distract from bigger issues like abortion rights, support for democracy, climate change, and income inequality.
Fox News Democrat … Tulsi Gabbard 2.0
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I think the posts in this thread are a microcosm of the RFK Jr. candidacy.
You have 3 mainstream Democrats saying that the guy is a complete tool while there’s one Republican saying how compelling he is, then immediately pivoting to why the policies that Democrats like are bad.
Yep.-
He’s a bit much. He seems to be mostly known for covid misinformation and anti-Semitic remarks. All he’s got is a famous name.
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