[btomba_77]

Teagan Goddard resets the [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/]2024 electoral map[/link].

 
Toss-up states include NH, ME, PA, NC, GA, MI, WI, AZ, NV …
 
 
_____________
 
 
[h1][b]Democrats Rebuilding the Blue Wall[/b][/h1]

As Democrats secured key electoral and historic victories up and down the ballot in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they shored up their position in the Rust Belt [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/]ahead of 2024[/link], rebuilding the so-called blue wall states that Donald Trump won in 2016, [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/democrats-blue-wall-electoral-college-2024-00066127]Politico[/link] reports.

If the dismantling of the blue wall states came at Trumps [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/2016-election-results/]own hand in 2016[/link], so too did its reconstruction this week, as Democrats handily ousted candidates endorsed by the former president.[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/midterms-mean-trump-biden-rematch-2024-rcna56289]What the midterms mean for a possible Trump-Biden rematch in 2024

[/link]It is unusual for a party out of power to avoid a serious nomination fight, but not many presidents have sought to reclaim their old job in recent American history. In addition to Trump, the list of possible 2024 contenders includes DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and several other current and former officials.
…
Biden has said he intends to run, despite some grumbling within his party.
 
“There’s going to be bed-wetting all over the place,” {Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012}, said Tuesday, arguing that it is “crazy” to think Democrats would be better off with a different nominee. “If Democrats want to lose the general election in 2024, they should start screwing with Joe Biden.”
 

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]If the 2022 Election Were a Presidential Election, Democrats Would Have Won the Electoral College but Lost the Popular Vote[/b][/h1]
[link=https://ballot-access.org/2022/11/15/if-the-2022-election-were-a-presidential-election-democrats-would-have-won-the-electoral-college-but-lost-the-popular-vote/]Ballot Access News[/link]: 

If one calculates the vote for each major party candidate for the office at the top of the ballot in 2022, one finds that Republicans would have got the most popular votes. But applying those same results to the electoral vote for each state, Democrats would have won the electoral vote 280 to 258.
 
Adding up the vote for the top office in 2022, Republicans got 52,661,573 votes. Democrats got 50,328,897.
 
But Democrats got the greater popular vote in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin, and they have 280 electoral votes. The states with the greater popular vote for Republicans in 2022, for the top-most office, only have 258 electoral votes.[/QUOTE]
 

[clickpenguin_460]

Newsom/buttigieg vs. Desantis/Haley

Lean dem: ME, NM, MN, VA

Tossup: NC, GA, NV, AZ, PA, WI, MI, NH

Lean rep: FL, MO, IA, OH

[clickpenguin_460]

Probably could throw TX into lean R and CO in lean D I guess.

[clickpenguin_460]

No calls for a “popular vote” expected for 2024 now eh?

[btomba_77]

Oh… that link was just a cute one.
 
I highly highly doubt that in a general presidential year election that Democrats could have the same result. 
 
Republicans would have to be *much* closer in CA/NY/MA etc … I don’t see that repeating in 2024.
 
 
I’d still take a national popular vote for Dems in a heartbeat.

[clickpenguin_460]

And I still wouldn’t!
 
At least we stick to our guns.

[btomba_77]

[b]Two Models for the Parties[/b][/h1]  
 
 
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/opinion/democrats-midterms.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare]New York Times[/link]: The election actually provided models for both parties in the states. For Republicans, Gov. Ron DeSantiss smashing re-election victory in Florida should offer real hope. Mr. DeSantis not only defeated his Democratic opponent by 20 points but also won Mr. Trumps own vote in Florida while Mr. Trump was calling him names which is roughly the magic act that the partys next leader will need to pull off.
 
For Democrats, an analogous figure may be Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado, who also won a huge re-election victory. Mr. Poliss biography and disposition are a good fit for the partys activist base, but his style of governance is decidedly centrist, which is the mix Democrats will need to compete against a post-Trump G.O.P.

 

[btomba_77]

 
[b]If Raphael Warnock Wins  [/b]
 
 
[link=https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/12/05/six-looming-lessons-from-the-georgia-runoff-00072155?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f0ed-dd93-ad7f-f8edad790000&nlid=630318]Playbook[/link]: Georgia is a bona fide [link=https://politicaldictionary.com/words/purple-state/]purple state[/link]. Bidens Georgia win was the breakthrough Peach State Democrats had been heralding for years, and the twin victories in the subsequent Senate runoffs only cemented that claim.
 
But states typically transform over multiple election cycles, and a Warnock victory Tuesday would confirm Georgias trajectory as the states demographic picture only gets more favorable for Democrats. [b]Could we be looking at Virginia circa 2008?[/b]
[b]
[/b]
Key takeaway: Theres a blueprint for flipping red states. Democratic organizers in conservative states have pleaded for years for more national investment, and if Warnock pulls it out, they believe they will have irrefutable proof of concept.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

Blueprint they say.  Good luck flipping OH.  Eventually I think it happens anyway.  The electorate keeps changing over time.  The issues for younger people are different.  

[btomba_77]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

Blueprint they say.  Good luck flipping OH.  Eventually I think it happens anyway.  The electorate keeps changing over time.  The issues for younger people are different.  

I think they are implicitly talking about accelerating the flip in states that are already trending in the Dem direction.
 
 
Ohio is the opposite of that.  The demographics are going the wrong direction. It’s getting older, whiter relative to the rest of the nation, and less educated.   Unless there is another political realignment on the horizon, OH with be Republican held for a long time.
 
All those young, browner, educated people leaving OH and settling in the suburbs of Atlanta or Charlotte or Phoenix etc make us trend R and those other places trend D.
 
 
 
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1600137344295702528?s=20&t=dY1mY-tC6Lw07uxraPrFZA]Bill Kristol[/link] twitter thread 

He thinks tonights Senate runoff in Georgia could be the beginning of the end for Donald Trump.
 
He speculates that a decisive Herschel Walker (R) loss in the Senate runoff such as 53% to 47% will finally force Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to mobilize Republican donors against Trump.
 
McConnells effort will be aided with the release of a damning January 6 Committee report just before Christmas.
 
Hell be helped further with the indictment of Trump early next year.
With Trump fading from the national scene, Kristol speculates that President Biden will decide to not run for re-election in the spring and let a new generation of leaders compete for the 2024 Democratic nomination.
 
I dont know if its likely it seems weve been predicting this for years but I suppose it’s possible.
 

Straightforward from here (1 of 2):

1. Tonight: Walker loses 53%-47%.

2. Tomorrow: McConnell says Trump can't be the 2024 GOP nominee and he'll help mobilize donors and voters to stop him.

3. In two weeks: Jan. 6 Committee report. Wave of GOP 'Never Again Trump' proclamations.

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) December 6, 2022

[btomba_77]

[link=https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/]https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/[/link]

Morning Consult poll:

A hypothetical head-to-head matchup shows Biden performs similarly against Trump and DeSantis should he stay true to the White Houses signaling that he will launch a re-election bid next year.

[btomba_77]

on 2024 Wisconsin –

[link=https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/analysis/2022/12/19/wisconsin-remains-politically-purple-but-the-way-to-win-is-changing/69734911007/]https://www.jsonline.com/…-changing/69734911007/[/link]

[h1]Is Republican domination in rural Wisconsin enough to hold off once-red suburbs becoming significantly more Democratic?[/h1]
_______________

Ron Brownstein discusses:
[link=https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1607831970591170562]https://twitter.com/RonBr…us/1607831970591170562[/link]

“It’s a narrow partisan balance in WI, but generally[b] GOP in Trump era is losing ground in the places adding population and gaining strength in places stagnant or shrinking. That’s the trade Trump has imposed on GOP everywhere. On balance, likely makes even WI more uphill for GOP[/b]”

“Waukesha County, which has long been the most important R County in WI, has 24 communities that saw double-digit shifts toward the Democratic Party between 2018 and 2022. It has 21 communities that have shifted at least 20 points since 2014, based on how they have voted for gov”

“of the 30 communities in Wisconsin that cast the most ballots this year (a list that runs from Milwaukee through Manitowoc), only one moved in a Republican direction between the 2018 and 2022 races for governor: Kenosha.” That’s Trump’s legacy to GOP.

“Two decades ago, Republican George W. Bush won Wauwatosa by 4,522 votes. Only five communities in Wisconsin gave Bush a bigger vote margin. This fall, Evers, a Dem, won Wauwatosa by 10,710 votes. Only two communities in Wisconsin gave Evers a bigger vote margin.” 
 

[satyanar]

Take a look at the policy stances of the winners and losers. Whether the left or right likes it or not we are moving to the middle, finally.

[btomba_77]

[h1]Republican Polls has Biden Running Way Ahead of Trump[/h1]  
A new [link=https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/biden-beats-trump-marginally-trails-desantis-new-gop-poll-rcna65601]WPA Intelligence (R) poll[/link] finds Donald Trump losing to President Biden, 41% to 49% an 8-percentage point disadvantage for the Republican thats outside the polls 3-point error margin.
 
But in a head-to-head matchup against DeSantis who is still not as well-known to voters Biden gets 42% of the theoretical vote compared to 45% for the Florida governor, which is essentially a statistical tie.

___________

Grain of salt: It’s a poll sponsored by the Club for Growth, who broke with Trump and have been pushing for DeSantis in recent months. They been giving seven figure sums to support Ron (and Tim Scott)
 

[btomba_77]

2024 strategy coming into focus –
 
[link=https://www.semafor.com/article/01/18/2023/white-house-memo-urges-dems-to-take-on-the-house-republican-maga-economic-plan]Semafor

[/link][b]White House memo urges Dems to take on the House Republican MAGA Economic Plan[/b]

 

 
 
 
 
Together these policies will make inflation worse, protect rich tax cheats, increase the deficit, raise taxes on middle-class families, and cut Social Security and Medicare the White House memo warns.
 
The memo comes as Republicans and Democrats are nearing a standoff over a must-pass debt limit increase the most significant legislation in the split Congress. Republicans have said they want to negotiate cuts ahead of any agreement to raise the debt ceiling and Democrats, including the White House, are a hard no, creating an impasse that could end in a financial crisis if the U.S. defaults.
[/QUOTE]

 
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-bets-it-all-on-republican-failure-2024-election-president-classified-documents-house-overconfidence-11674071140?st=rnhv872q23msomv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink]Karl Rove[/link]:

[b]Biden Bets It All on Republican Failure[/b]

Team Biden is betting House Republicans will screw up for the next two years, coming across as shrill, angry, negative and nuts; and that the GOP will nominate Mr. Trump, the easiest Republican for the president to beat.
 
Team Biden might win those bets. But theyre risky. Democrats are playing a weak hand and hoping the GOP hand is even weaker.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]2024: Biden vs. Trump vs. Biden vs. Not Trump[/h1]  
[h3][b]The Known Fundamentals of a 2024 Campaign[/b][/h3]
[link=https://messagebox.substack.com/p/2024-biden-vs-trump-vs-biden-vs-not?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=65026&post_id=98101253&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email]Dan Pfeiffer[/link]:

On Thursdays [i]Pod Save America[/i], Sarah Longwell, the Never Republican strategist, made a declaration about Joe Bidens 2024 prospects that caused a minor firestorm online. Longwell declared, “I think any Republican who is not named Donald Trump will beat Joe Biden.”   
 
 
I have a lot of respect for Sarah. Her observations are grounded in research, unlike most people who talk about politics. She has held regular focus groups with undecided and up-for-grabs voters for years. I would venture that she has spent more time talking to the voters who will decide the 2024 election than anyone else in American politics. Her observations should be taken seriously. I encourage everyone to listen to the full interview for context as opposed to reacting to this one 11-second excerpt.
 
But the online reaction refers to the specific prediction that Biden will lose to a non-Trump Republican, so thats what I want to address.

…

In political terms, the 2024 presidential election is light years from now and we know very little about how it will shape up. Donald Trump announced his candidacy right after the midterms but has avoided the public since then. In fact, there is a chance that he will be sitting in prison when you are reading this. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, fresh off a big win in 2022, was leading the race to be the non-Donald Trump (but still very Trumpy) candidate. Mike Pence was actively plotting a campaign despite the fact that the Republican Partys most committed voters recently endorsed his death by hanging. A bunch of other lesser lights (see: Cruz, Ted) and grifters (see: Pompeo, Mike) were also planning on running for President.
 
The candidates are not the only known unknowns. Whats happening in the economy? How high is inflation? Whats the price of gas? Is Trump in jail? Is he running for President from a jail cell?
…

However, not knowing everything, doesnt mean that we dont know anything. First,[b] America is so polarized that every presidential election is a coin toss. Small shifts in voter choice or turnout in a couple of states can tilt elections.[/b] The 2016 election was decided by 80,000 votes in four states. The 2020 election was even more narrowly decided. Under the right circumstances, Joe Biden (or any other Democrat) can beat any Republican and vice versa.

[/QUOTE]

bolding mine … I have heard people argue that same “Biden can’t beat anyone not named Trump” and the corollary “Trump can’t win again regardless of who he runs against” … I disagree with both.
 

[satyanar]

Right on the first and wrong on the second. 50/50 not bad for a hobby poster.

[satyanar]

Heres the problem with the premise. There will never be a shift in voter choice or turn out that favors Trump. Never. Ever.

Any other combo is a toss up for sure.

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Trump’s Continued Attacks on Early Voting Make GOP Nervous for 2024[/b][/h1]  
   [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/trump-early-voting-attacks-may-hurt-republicans-on-2024-campaign-trail]Bloomberg[/link] 
 
When Donald Trump attacked early voting in New Hampshire Saturday, he was speaking to an audience who was excited to hear the message. Others arent so sure. 
 
Republican officials in the state, one of only four that dont offer early in-person voting, applauded after Trump lamented its expansion since 2020, vowing that someday the US would be back to doing it the way its supposed to be: one-day voting.’
 
But everywhere else in Trumps 2024 campaign travels, Republicans are more wary. They worry that his attacks might persuade GOP voters to avoid early in-person voting, hampering turnout in general elections, and leaving the party more vulnerable to Election Day snafus like those in Arizona and Pennsylvania last November.
 

[satyanar]

You think?

[kaldridgewv2211]

OH is red.  We have a good in person early voting method.  So long as you have an ID you can go vote, not wait in line, and it’s really nice.  Not sure why the bone to pick with a good process.  

[kayla.meyer_144]

The bone is strictly about the ID allowed in many states that require ID. Here in Jersey we dont need to show ID. We are a relatively densely populated state with a large variety of people & in all my 50+ years of voting have never heard about massive or even minor voting fraud due to the lack of showing ID.
 
The type of ID allowed in states newly requiring ID seem intent on making getting a proper ID a hassle.

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Democrats Are Preparing Ways to Beat DeSantis[/b][/h1]  
Democrats are unfazed, even giddy about a possible 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But the prospect of facing upstart Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is prompting whispers of angst within Democratic circles, [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-04/democrats-test-attacks-on-florida-republican-desantis-for-2024-election]Bloomberg[/link] reports.
 
While Biden advisers and allies havent yet settled on a strategy to thwart DeSantis, the White House hasnt missed an opportunity to knock him in an effort to weaken him before he can announce a presidential bid.
 
DeSantis is a near daily fixture in Democratic National Committee attack emails, slamming his positions and policy moves. Biden advisers and allies are seeking to call into question the governors leadership, putting the two camps on a collision course over hot-button issues like abortion, taxes and education.
 

[satyanar]

“unfazed, even giddy”
 
Not what I see here among our Dem leadership.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/03/jan-27-feb-1-washington-post-abc-news-poll/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2&itid=lk_inline_manual_2]Washington Post-ABC News poll[/link].

Trump +4 vs Biden

_____________

18. If the 2024 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Donald Trump, the Republican) and (Joe Biden, the Democrat), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Trump) or (Biden)? Other Neither Would not vote–

2/1/2023:  Biden 44/ Trump 48
9/21/2022:  Biden 48/ Trump 46

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.premise.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FBi-Weekly-Political-Sentiment-Tracker-February-6th-2023.pdf]https://www.premise.com/wp-content/u…y-6th-2023.pdf[/link]

Premise Poll:

Trump +2 v Biden

Biden +2 v DeSantis

[btomba_77]

[link=https://news.yahoo.com/poll-desantis-leads-trump-for-2024-gop-nod–but-not-if-haley-and-others-split-the-vote-175359642.html]https://news.yahoo.com/po…he-vote-175359642.html[/link]

YouGov/Yahoo

Biden +6 v Trump
DeSantis +1 v Biden

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Election Deniers set to lead Michigan GOP into 2024[/b][/h1] Matthew DePerno and Kristina Karamo, both Trump loyalists who resoundingly lost their midterm races, are the front-runners to lead the state party.
 
Trump loyalists are expected to cement their takeover of Michigans Republican Party during its leadership vote on Saturday, most likely elevating one of two election deniers whose failed bids for office in November were emblematic of the partys midterm drubbing in the state, the [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/18/us/politics/michigan-republicans-deperno-karamo.html]New York Times[/link] reports.

____ 

Hope to see Dems rebuild that blue wall