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2016 polls
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Michigan polls.
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A carbon copy thus far, right down to the RCP averages, the individual poll results, Trafalgar sticking out like a sore thumb…
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NY Times/Siena Polls (A+ rating via 538):
NH: Biden + 3
NV: Biden + 4
WI: Biden + 5
MN: Biden + 9
Gravis
AZ: Biden + 2
We haven’t really had any polling out of NH and NV so those are interesting. They were very close results in 2016 obviously.
The NY Times/Siena polls are definitely rated A+ for a reason. They are almost perfectly weighted
All of the states are leaning toward wanting to re-open and disliking the riots/violence but Trump is not capitalizing on either issue at all. Despite the voters saying that Biden wants to defund the police and has not said enough forcefully against the violence, they still pick him over Trump on the law and order issue by a slim margin.-
First national poll with likely voters and running mates via FOXNEWS has Biden +5. Despite its rightward leaning news, its polls have always tilted Dem (D +1.4 according to 538)
[link=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-a-5-point-race-in-post-convention-poll]https://www.foxnews.com/p…n-post-convention-poll[/link]
Interesting points:
– Biden leads in all categories except for the economy
– The economy is the most important issue, then covid
– The gap between the two on who can handle covid better has narrowed a lot
– There has been both an increase in those that think the economy is good now and an increase in those who think covid is being handled/getting better
Lastly, the same thing keeps popping up in basically every poll – When asked who they think is going to win, Trump is up by 9 points (it was a tie in July). I’ve seen this over and over in the national polls. Voters choose Biden by 3-10 points but then think Trump is going to win by 5-10 points.
Again, it could mean nothing or it just could mean that Democrats are having PTSD from 2016. Or, it could mean that there are some silent Trump people out there.-
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ehu8oJ6XYAA1qmn?format=png[/img]
New NYT poll of likely voters in key swing states (MN, NV, NH, WI):
Most says racism a bigger problem than riots.
By huge margins, Dems say racism is the bigger problem facing the country, while Reps say its riots.
A majority or plurality of independents say racism is the bigger problem.
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[b]Arizona[/b]
[link=https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200908%20AZPOP/AZPOP%20Presidential%20Crosstabs.pdf][b]OH Predictive Insights[/b][/link][b]Biden +10[/b] 52/42
Some interesting cross-tabs:
Biden net favorable at 53/44
Only 5% undecideds
Biden tied among rural voters.
Biden getting 17% of self-identified Republicans
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Trafalgar has NC +2 for Trump. That’s not good for Trump. Not sure I can call NC pink anymore – likely full on gray toss-up.
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Quote from Cubsfan10
Trafalgar has NC +2 for Trump. That’s not good for Trump. Not sure I can call NC pink anymore – likely full on gray toss-up.
Second NC poll today:
[link=https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2020/09/14/19286159/PollPrint-DMID1-5o6uj4sqc.pdf]https://wwwcache.wral.com…nt-DMID1-5o6uj4sqc.pdf[/link]
Survey America (A rating) for WRAL:
[b]For President: Trump 47% , Biden 47% .[/b]
* For US Senate: Democratic Challenger Cal Cunningham 47%, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis 40%. * For Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper 49%, Republican challenger Dan Forest 42%.
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[b]Tied In Florida [/b]
[b][/b]
A new [link=https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/florida-2020-its-the-economy.php]Florida Atlantic University poll[/link] in Florida finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a dead heat, 50% to 50%.
About 9% of voters said there is a chance they will change their mind while the other 91% said they will definitely stick with their choice. 97% of Trump voters and 94% of Biden voters say they will not change their minds.-
[h1][b]Biden Leads In 2 Key Battlegrounds[/b][/h1]
New [link=https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/politics/cnn-polls-wisconsin-north-carolina/index.html]CNN polls[/link] of likely voters:
[ul][*]North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 46%[*]Wisconsin: Biden 52%, Trump 42% [/ul]-
[link=https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/15/biden-holds-slim-edge-over-trump-in-minnesota-ahead-of-visits/]https://morningconsult.co…esota-ahead-of-visits/[/link]
Morning Consult poll:
[h1]Biden Holds Slim Edge Over Trump in Minnesota Ahead of Visits[/h1] [h2]Democratic nominee leads the incumbent Republican, 48% to 44%, in the Gopher State[/h2]
Biden enters the final seven weeks of the contest with support among key groups roughly matching what [link=https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/minnesota/president]exit polling[/link] showed in 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton held Trump off by less than 2 points, save for one big difference: the 2020 nominees standing among white voters.
Biden leads Trump by 9 points among women, 51 percent to 42 percent, a bloc that Clinton carried by 7 points. Among suburbanites and independents, groups that broke evenly between Clinton and Trump in 2016, Biden and the president are effectively tied. However, among white voters, who Trump won by 7 points four years ago, 50 percent to 43 percent, Biden leads Trump within the margin of error, 48 percent to 45 percent.
That turning of the tables was driven by Bidens overperformance among white voters with college degrees. The latest polling found Biden leading Trump by 27 points among college-educated whites, 61 percent to 34 percent, compared with Clintons 9-point lead four years ago.
While daily tracking shows Trumps response to the fallout from the Floyd protests repelled white voters who graduated from college, it appears to have resonated with those who did not. Among white voters without college degrees the kind of working-class voters credited with the states rightward inching Trump leads Biden, 54 percent to 37 percent, consistent with his advantage since late May. However, Trumps edge with these voters appears to be slightly smaller than it was four years ago, though the differences are within the polls margin of error.
Biden has also held an advantage over Clintons standing in 2016 among Minnesota voters over the age of 65 in daily tracking for the past month: The latest survey found him leading the president, 51 percent to 42 percent. Trump leads him among the states rural voters, 56 percent to 38 percent, statistically unchanged from his lead four years ago.[/QUOTE]
[img]https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/09/14181043/200914_Minnesota-Trend_FULLWIDTH.png[/img]
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[link=https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_091520.pdf/]https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_091520.pdf/[/link]
[b]Monmouth Florida poll – Biden +5[/b]
Joe Biden holds a 3 to 5 point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, depending on a range of likely voter models.
The Monmouth University Poll finds Biden with a large lead among Latino voters, but also suggests there are some possible signs of strength for Trump among older voters in this group.
However, Biden has a sizable advantage in solidly Democratic areas of the state as well as more competitive counties.
Trump holds a smaller than usual lead for a Republican incumbent among the large veteran vote contingent.
Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 2% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) and less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), while 3% are undecided.
Voter intent includes 41% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 40% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 38% who are certain to support Trump (versus 49% who are not at all likely).[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a12020StateBattlegrounds-WIMN.pdf]ABC News/The Washington Post
[/link]
[h1]Close contest in Wisconsin; in Minnesota, not so much[/h1]
Biden-Trump at 50%-46% in Wisconsin and 57%-40% in Minnesota in this poll.[img]https://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/HorseRace_v02_LY_1600205157738_hpEmbed_1x1_608.jpg[/img]
This survey was produced via random-sample telephone interviewing, with about 75% of calls to cell phones, weighted to census norms for sex, age, race/ethnicity, education and region. See methodological details below.
One factor in Biden’s strength in Minnesota is his broad advantage there in how much he’s trusted to handle the pandemic — 58%-36% over Trump among registered voters, compared with a close 49%-42% in Wisconsin. That gap in Minnesota overwhelms a dead heat in trust on the economy.
About six in 10 registered voters in both states express worry that they or a family member might catch the coronavirus, and more than half rate the national economy negatively — two factors that independently predict support for Biden.Further, both states have been gripped by protests over police treatment of Black people after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May and the shooting of [link=https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/wisconsin-protests]Jacob Blake[/link] in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last month. Registered voters support such protests by 55%-40% in Minnesota, compared with a close 51%-44% in Wisconsin, and trust Biden over Trump to handle equal treatment of racial groups by 24 percentage points in Minnesota, shrinking to about half that margin, 10 points, in Wisconsin.
Underscoring Trump’s challenges in Minnesota, Biden also leads there, by 11 points, in trust to handle crime and safety, while in Wisconsin the two are tied on this issue.
[/QUOTE]
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I would be surprised if MN is +16 to Biden, wouldn’t you?
“AHEAD? Preferences can change. In ABC/Post national polling in 2016, a 12-point lead for Hillary Clinton on Oct. 22, 17days before the election, contracted to Trump +1 eight days later, as GOP voters set aside the issue of Trumps lewd comments on the Access Hollywood tape and returned to his ranks. A week before the election it was Clinton +2, and ultimately Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points, while Trump won the Electoral College with key victories in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. Among other factors this year, Bidenscompetitive position comes from people who intend to vote early in person or by mail. Among those who intend to vote on Election Day, Trump leads by a wide 67-29 percent in Wisconsin and 60-38 percent in Minnesota. Among intended early and absentee voters who make up 44 percent of likely voters in Wisconsin and 39 percent in Minnesota 79 percent or more back Biden.5The question is whether theyll make the effort. While two-thirds of Trumps supporters are very enthusiastic about supporting him, strong enthusiasm for Biden falls sharply, to 50 percent in Wisconsin and 44 percent in Minnesota a persistent disadvantage for the Democrat.
5The question is whether theyll make the effort. While two-thirds of Trumps supporters are very enthusiastic about supporting him, strong enthusiasm for Biden falls sharply, to 50 percent in Wisconsin and 44 percent in Minnesota a persistent disadvantage for the Democrat.
As an example, [b]limiting the likely voter pool to voters who are very or somewhat enthusiastic about their choice brings the race to a scant +4 points for Biden in Wisconsin and +12 points in Minnesota. Tightening it further, to only very enthusiastic supporters, puts Trump slightly ahead in Wisconsin and essentially tied in Minnesota”[/b]-
I wouldnt be shocked if MN ended up going 58-42 Biden. Pleasantly surprised? Sure. But not shocked.
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I would be. Doesn’t seem in line with other polls, demographic changes, etc. Anything is possible though, I suppose.
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For sure it’s an outlier.
But the 538 avg for MN right now is Biden +9 … add another 7 to that is in the 2 standard deviations out.
I would say the 538 average now is right about where I would expect the race to land … 53-44 … in that range.-
That would be similar/slightly higher than the margin of Obama over Romney.
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Looks like the law and order message has flopped in the upper Midwest
Since Kenosha trump has dropped like a rock in Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota
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[link=https://politicalwire.com/2020/09/16/trumps-path-is-incredibly-narrow/]If the Polls are Correct, Trump’s Path Is More Narrow [/link]
Teagan Goddard:
The Trump campaign once argued they would [link=https://politicalwire.com/2019/06/04/trump-tries-to-expand-his-map/]expand the electoral map[/link] and compete in three states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico.
The polling averages have Joe Biden ahead [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/]8.9 points in Minnesota[/link], [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-hampshire/]6.7 points in New Hampshire[/link], and [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-mexico/]12.7 points in New Mexico[/link].
Biden is also ahead by [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/]5.0 points in Arizona[/link] and [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/]6.9 points in Wisconsin[/link], states he won four years ago.
That leaves Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania where he currently [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/]trails by 4.9 points[/link] that would get him to 269 electoral votes.
Assuming all the other states stay the same as in 2016 a big assumption since Trump is currently trailing in North Carolina [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/]by 1.0 points[/link] and Florida [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/]by 2.4 points[/link] Trump would have just two paths:
[ol][*]Win Michigan where he is [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/]trailing by 7.5 points[/link] which would put him at 285 electoral votes.[*]Win in the House of Representatives, which is [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/what-happens-electoral-college-tie/]empowered to break a 269 to 269 tie[/link] in the Electoral College. [/ol]
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Yup. Blue wall shuts off all paths.
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He doesn’t have to win the House. He just has to have the majority of house state delegations be Republican and they likely will be. That will end up weird as a Trump-Harris or Trump-Biden administration though.
Also, that would be bad for the country to have the President picked that way.
The candidate who wins 2 out of WI, PA, and AZ wins.
TX, IA, OH, FL, NC, GA, ME-2 are going to go to Trump
MI, MN, NV, NH are going to go to Biden
50/50 Senate is likely IMO.
Dems keep house..Repubs gain like 3-5 seats.
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Yes. Win [b]in[/b] the House.
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Quote from Cubsfan10
He doesn’t have to win the House. He just has to have the majority of house state delegations be Republican and they likely will be. That will end up weird as a Trump-Harris or Trump-Biden administration though.
Also, that would be bad for the country to have the President picked that way.
The candidate who wins 2 out of WI, PA, and AZ wins.
TX, IA, OH, FL, NC, GA, ME-2 are going to go to Trump
MI, MN, NV, NH are going to go to Biden50/50 Senate is likely IMO.
Dems keep house..Repubs gain like 3-5 seats.
I disagree, though thats an easy tell.
I would suggest replacing Biden with Democrats.-
I’m still waiting for Biden to get covid and not be able to do the debates. Should be any day now.
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[link=https://twitter.com/michaellarosadc/status/1306294995306020864?s=21]https://twitter.com/micha…06294995306020864?s=21[/link]
This literal 3 car parade rally that Mrs Biden attended? Off the chain!
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I think there are more Trump supporters at Biden events than Biden supporters. Trump supporter got love to share.
[link=https://dailyrednews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/trump-4-more-years-780×470.png]https://dailyrednews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/trump-4-more-years-780×470.png[/link]-
lots of issues reporting in the KFF “Sunbelt Voices Project” … looking at AZ, NC, FL.
[img]https://www.kff.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9533-Figure-13.png[/img]
[link=https://www.kff.org/other/report/sun-belt-voices-project/?utm_campaign=KFF-2020-polling-surveys&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=2&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_5ZTFB8vca_xVIYrT9s4orXOO498bJGBuNcTXjbYgRxzT-SsNVd3e5z3Zqjmk68IlhBHG3HmH_4MgK0irtUGwKc95Dig&utm_content=2&utm_source=hs_email]https://www.kff.org/other…mp;utm_source=hs_email[/link]
Voters give Trump +10 on the economy. But Biden leads on every other surveyed issue, +15 on race relations, +1 on criminal justice and policing, +1 on immigration, +9 on Covid, +7 on health care.
20% of voters still “undecided” but that comes with a caveat:
[ul][*][b]About one in five voters are swing voters but that doesnt mean all of these votes are up for grabs.[/b] In all three states, nearly one-fourth of voters are swing voters. This includes about one in ten voters who say they are truly undecided and a similar share of voters who say they are probably going to vote for one candidate, but havent definitively made up their minds. Few of those who say they are probably going to vote for one candidate say there is a chance they would vote for the other candidate, suggesting that some of these swing voters just may not vote on election day.[*][b]Swing voters are younger, have more moderate views, and a larger share are Hispanic voters, and also give Biden higher approval ratings than Trump.[/b] The crucial group of voters who have not yet decided who they plan to vote for in the 2020 election are younger, and larger shares identify as political moderates and independents. In addition, a larger share of swing voters than decided voters are Hispanic voters. They are also more likely to approve of former Vice President Biden than President Trump.[*][b]Half of swing voters prefer Bidens leadership style but less than half see either candidate as a strong leader.[/b] Half of swing voters say, regardless of who they plan to vote for, they prefer Bidens leadership style over President Trumps (39% say they prefer Trumps leadership style). [/ul] [/QUOTE]
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[b]Biden Has Edge In Battlegrounds [/b]
[b] [/b]
New [link=https://www.kff.org/other/report/sun-belt-voices-project/]Kaiser Family Foundation polls[/link]:
[ul][*]Arizona: Biden 45%, Trump 40%[*]Florida: Biden 43%, Trump 42%[*]North Carolina: Biden 45%, Trump 43% [/ul] New [link=https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_17_2020_final_marginals_pdftxt.pdf]Suffolk University poll[/link]:
[ul][*]North Carolina: Biden 46%, Trump 43% [/ul] New [link=https://morningconsult.com/form/wisconsin-presidential-election-tracking/]Morning Consult poll[/link]:
[ul][*]Wisconsin: Biden 51%, Trump 42% [/ul]
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[b]Biden Leads Among Marginal Voters in the Battlegrounds[/b][/h1]
A new [link=https://crooked.com/articles/pollercoaster-2020-marginal-voters/]Change Research poll[/link] of new and/or infrequent voters in six battleground states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump, 49% to 37% with 9% still undecided.
Most importantly, 84% say theyll definitely vote this year.-
A new [link=https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_az_091720/]Monmouth poll[/link] in Arizona finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 48% to 44%.
Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race narrows to 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump. The race tightens even more to 47% Biden and 47% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout.
In the U.S. Senate race, Mark Kelly (D) leads Sen. Martha McSally (R), 50% to 44%.
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The same scenarios changed the senate race too with Kelly only +1 in the latter model.
I’ve noticed a lot of new polls are starting to filter down into extremely likely voters, likely voter-lower turnout, models. Those always favor Trump/Republicans. As usual, the reality will probably be somewhere in between so he/McSally probably still down 2-3% in AZ.-
[link=https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-me-nc-0920-crosstabs/72d074246b272695/full.pdf]https://int.nyt.com/data/…074246b272695/full.pdf[/link]
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/us/politics/trump-biden-senate-collins-poll.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…nate-collins-poll.html[/link]
[b]NYT/Sienna Battleground Poll[/b][/h1]
[b]Maine – Biden +17
ME-2 – Biden +2
NC – Biden +1
AZ – BIden +9[/b](Also in Senate, ME Gideon +5, NC Cunningham +4, AZ Kelly +8)
In the swing states, Mr. Trump is still lagging across the board. The Times has polled seven presidential battlegrounds in the last two weeks, and the president has not led in any of them, and in no state did he amass more than 44 percent of the vote. Though he has repeatedly tried to shift the focus away from the virus, he has not established a meaningful advantage over Mr. Biden on any issue of equal urgency: Voters see Mr. Trump as somewhat more credible on issues of the economy and public order than on the pandemic, but not to the point of offsetting their overall disapproval of him.
While Maine exhibited the widest gap over the handling of the virus, voters in North Carolina, the closest presidential swing state polled so far by The Times, also preferred Mr. Biden, by 52 percent to 41 percent. In Arizona, the difference was even more lopsided, with voters favoring Mr. Biden by 16 percentage points.…
The Democrats strong lead in Arizona, a historically Republican state, is owed to a 30-point advantage among Hispanic voters and a break-even performance with whites. And both Mr. Biden and the Democratic Senate candidate, Mark Kelly, are leading with voters over 65, a crucial group in a state rich with retirees.
[/QUOTE]
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[link=https://morningconsult.com/form/wisconsin-presidential-election-tracking/]Morning Consult[/link] Wisconsin Biden +9
[link=https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2020/09/September-Statewide-EPIC-MRA-poll-091820.pdf]EPIC-MRA[/link] Michigan Biden +8
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NYT looking at polls today….
If they are off by the same amount as in 2016 and off in the same direction, then Trump takes just over 270 electoral votes while losing the popular vote by a bit more than The HRC margin-
New battleground state polls from [link=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-16-september/]Redfield & Wilson[/link]:
[ul][*]Arizona: Biden 47%, Trump 42%[*]Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 44%[*]Michigan: Biden 49%, Trump 39%[*]North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 45%[*]Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 44%[*]Wisconsin: Biden 47%, Trump 41% [/ul]
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[link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MnN8_rRNinle5U0mqlkF4Gs2XOhROk_w/view]Civiqs*[/link]
[b]Civiqs/Rustbelt Rising [/b][b]Poll: [/b]
Michigan: Biden 53% (+11) Trump 42%
Pennsylvania: Biden 52% (+7) Trump 45%
Wisconsin: Biden 51% (+7) Trump 44%
OH: 48% Trump (+3), 45% Biden-
That’s an interesting NYT finding. Shows how big of an electoral cushion trump had last time.
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So….do any of these polls mean anything now?
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No. Republicans should leave the seat open. One, because of the stink they made over Garland and two because it likely will help Trump win. Lots of possible moderate/conservative biden voters could switch to trump for an open supreme court seat. Also, then if trump wins he has full mandate to nominate whomever he wants.
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Ive heard that thought.
What do you do if there is some voting chicanery to sort out and you have an incomplete Court?
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Nothing you can do.
I would love to see trump nominate Garland and watch everyone’s head explode. Dems would have to accept it and Garland is basically the Dem version of Kennedy which is a heck of a lot more conservative than RBG was.
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The early favorite is Barrett.
Democrats threatening violence, per usual.
I would consider calling an audible and nominating a conservative black person, similar to Clarence Thomas.
Let the Democrats interrupt their BLM riots to riot against a black Justice.
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Nominating someone likely only hurts Trump because of the media and how they will portray it. No one can get confirmed before the election anyway.
The best move is to say a top 3 of who he would pick if he wins and ask biden to do the same so the people can vote on it.
He should tell biden if he wants the voters to decide then he should name his choices.
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Bull.
More people will turn out to vote for Republicans if they refuse to do what they were elected to do. Nah. Trump will put forth a nominee.
Biden putting forth ideas likely hurts him.
Trump? Media? Trump literally negotiated peace in the Middle East and CNNs top story was how many people at the ceremony didnt wear masks.
Trump will put forth a nominee. McConnell will wrangle a hearing. Some purple Republicans like Romney, Murkowski, maybe Collins will tremble about norms or some such baloney, as if Democrats havent been promising to nuke the filibuster the first chance they get.
Ultimately, the Senate Republicans will do as theyre told.
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Maybe. The person he nominates is going to get destroyed by the media and Dems. I feel bad for her.
I’m not so sure Romney or murkowski will do it…they both havent done what they’re told in high profile votes already.
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I’m new here, who is everyone here picking? Do you all believe the polls?
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I would guess Romney, Murkowski, and Collins will be no ahead of the election …
Whether or not there is a 4th GOP senator to declare no (at least until the lame duck) not sure.Wonder how much heat Graham is feeling and whether he thinks going forward to rule up his base or lay low works better …
Maybe Gardner–
Also, I would accept Garland in a heartbeat
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Biden should say hes considering Garland for his short list (doesnt have to actually pick him … but good politics)
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The GOP has two major options:
(1) Fill the vacancy
(2) Give Democrats a reason to vote for Biden
I anticipate that the traditionally squishy Republicans will make various noises about voting no because they want CNN to call them a nice person for a couple of hours.
They will then receive notice from their voters regarding their impending doom if they continue to be squishy.
Followed by a vote where they are being really reluctant, but do as they’re told. Failure to do so will result in the appearance of petitions with sufficient enough numbers to recall said senators.
This will lead to the GOP crying that their replacements in states with Democratic governors will result in the loss of the Senate. This will be met by GOP voters replying that the current Republican senators weren’t doing anything useful with their seats anyway, and were in fact following orders from Democrats as evidenced by their most recent actions.
The senators will realize that the only way to keep their seats as individuals is to accede.-
Pick Garland. Forces dems to say yes and he is more moderate than rbg.
Repubs win election.
Replace Breyer with conservative.
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Quote from Cubsfan10
Pick Garland. Forces dems to say yes and he is more moderate than rbg.
Repubs win election.
Replace Breyer with conservative.
I respect your opinion, CF. Its a no, however.
Hearing some buzz about Miguel Estrada. Still think its more than likely to be Barrett. Has the advantage of being previously vetted just a few years ago. Could theoretically skip hearings and proceed straight to vote.
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starting a new thread….
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[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/upshot/montana-poll-election.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…ana-poll-election.html[/link]
[b]NYT/Sienna Poll shows a tight Senate race in Montana (with an *)[/b]
A New York Times/Siena College poll of Montana shows a close race for Senate. But it has an important flaw: It named Green Party candidates who wont be on the ballot this November.
In August, the Montana Supreme Court denied a [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-high-court-denies-bid-to-restore-greens-on-montana-ballot/2020/08/25/dc6a1250-e719-11ea-bf44-0d31c85838a5_story.html]Republican-backed effort[/link] to qualify those candidates on the ballot. An appeal at the U.S. Supreme Court was rejected while our survey was being conducted. (They should have been removed from the poll beforehand anyway; the mistake was mine.)
With the Green Party candidates officially off the ballot, the poll is a flawed test of the preferences of Montana voters. .
…the Republican Steve Daines led the Democrat Steve Bullock by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent. The Green Party candidate earned 3.5 percent.
One might assume that these Green Party respondents would overwhelmingly back Mr. Bullock, but a deeper look at the 19 respondents who supported the Green Party candidate suggests that at least these particular respondents are not progressive voters. Instead, they mainly appear to be registering their dissatisfaction with the major-party candidates. In the governors race, they preferred the libertarian candidate over the erroneously listed Green Party candidate by a two-to-one margin. In some respects, they resemble the state over all: a preference for Donald J. Trump as president and for Republicans to control Congress.
[b]
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A new [link=https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-in-dead-heat]Emerson College poll[/link] in North Carolina finds Joe Biden edging Donald Trump 50% to 49%.
Amazing: Just 1% of voters say they are undecided.
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[link=https://www.foxnews.com/us/massive-f-k-cuomo-and-de-blasio-mural-painted-on-brooklyn-street]https://www.foxnews.com/u…ted-on-brooklyn-street[/link]
Massive F–k Cuomo and de Blasio mural painted on Brooklyn street
For less than 24 hours, an all-caps, block-length message painted in yellow contained the rage of New York City[link=https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/09/15/governors-who-took-strict-covid-19-measures-enjoy-highest-approval-survey-shows/]https://www.forbes.com/si…approval-survey-shows/[/link]
Governors Who Took Strict Covid-19 Measures Enjoy Highest Approval, Survey Shows
Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.) all enjoy ratings higher than 60%.
Dergon, this is your big flashing sign regarding polls. The polls say Cuomo enjoys a 60%+ approval rating at the same time that the citizens of his state are painting Fk Cuomo in huge letters on the street and cheering the mural.
One of these is not like the other.
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[link=https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/]https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/
[/link]American Research Group poll has Trump at 35% approval today. It’s always been at the lower end running between 35 and 41, but this is the lowest.
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Meanwhile, Rasmussen is at 51% approve.
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Rasmussen rules
Everything else is fake news
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This is great. People in NYC are literally painting profanities against the governor and mayor, which is totally something that happens to politicians with sky high approval ratings.
All hail the polls. Everything is fine, Hillary said so.
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If it is on FOX it has to be real
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[link=https://consumerenergyalliance.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CEA-FL-Track.pdf]The Tyson Group[/link]
FL: Biden +2 (46/44)
ALA: Trump +4 (48/44)
TX: Biden +4 (48/44)
MISS: Trump +10 (50/40)
LA: Trump +6 (48/42)[link=https://warnockforgeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Warnock-For-Georgia-Polling-Memo-092120.pdf]GBAO*[/link]
GA: Biden +3 (49/46)-
A new [link=https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/]Des Moines Register poll[/link] in Iowa finds Joe Biden locked in a dead heat with Donald Trump in the presidential race, 47% to 47%.
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Sunbelt tightens:
New [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/23/post-abc-polls-trump-biden-tight-races-florida-arizona/?arc404=true]Washington Post-ABC News polls[/link]:
[ul][*]FLORIDA: Trump 51%, Biden 47%[*]ARIZONA: Trump 49%, Biden 48% [/ul] The findings in the two surveys are better for the president than other polls conducted in the two states recently by other organizations. [i]The Post[/i]s average of polls this month shows Biden with a two-point advantage in Florida and a six-point margin in Arizona.
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I saw those polls this morning and could see Dergon’s butt clench from here.
Those were before RGB though so you can unclench. Ha.
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The polls arent real. Dont get high or low on them.
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[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/?ex_cid=story-twitter]https://fivethirtyeight.c…/?ex_cid=story-twitter[/link]
[h1][b]Trump Supporters Arent Shy, But Polls Could Still Be Missing Some Of Them[/b][/h1]
If shy Trump voters were a thing, for example, you might expect a difference in how respondents reply to surveys conducted via telephone versus those anonymously submitted online the idea being that social desirability bias is less likely to kick in when a respondent is dealing with a faceless computer instead of a real person. However, as [link=https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/]Morning Consults new 2,400-respondent study shows,[/link] Trump performed about the same against Joe Biden, regardless of whether the pollster interviewed respondents by phone or online.
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[link=https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/]polls suggest[/link] that as many as 55 percent of voters are convinced that hidden Trump support could help him win reelection in some way.
This obsession with finding hidden pockets of support for Trump is part of a larger phenomenon weve observed for a while now: Trump is [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/]down in the polls[/link], and has been for months, but if you ask Americans if they think he will win, [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-are-starting-to-doubt-trumps-reelection-chances/]many still say yes[/link]. And to be clear, Trump[i] can[/i] win. We think he has [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]a nearly 1 in 4 shot of doing so[/link] in our forecast, but that doesnt mean hes not an underdog.
This is similar to what we said in the lead-up to the election in 2016. Then, Trump was [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/]an ordinary, average polling error[/link] away from winning the election, in which if he beat his polls by just a few points in just a couple of states he could win and in fact, thats exactly what happened.…
the likely reason were still talking about shy Trump voters is because the polls could still be missing some Trump voters its just not because theyre shy.
One of the main takeaways from 2016 was that [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollsters-probably-didnt-talk-to-enough-white-voters-without-college-degrees/]many state-level polls underrepresented[/link] the number of white voters without a four-year college degree in the electorate, a group [link=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/another-look-back-at-2016/]that overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016[/link]. As a result, some pollsters have since weighted their surveys by education, [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/upshot/polls-2020-trump-biden.html]but not all have[/link]. It [link=https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/08/18/a-resource-for-state-preelection-polling/]remains a critical cleavage[/link] that pollsters still need to address.
Weighting for education is complicated, though; namely, highly educated Americans are more likely to answer a poll than less educated Americans, and in an era of increasingly lower response rates, this could be a problem as underlying samples may be more educated than the actual population. The upshot is that even if a pollster is weighting its respondents to match the educational breakdown of a states population, it [link=https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2017/05/15/what-low-response-rates-mean-for-telephone-surveys/]still may not be reaching enough voters[/link] with lower education levels. This could in turn affect the polls findings for the presidential race because the educational divide is [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/]now one of the most important predictors[/link] of party support besides race.[/QUOTE]
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Love the logic.
No one would ever mess around with anything anonymously online. Very unlikely. Im Nate Silver.
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New [link=https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2020/09/23/six-weeks-from-election-day-new-great-lakes-poll-shows-ohio-tossup/stories/20200923151]Baldwin Wallace University polls[/link]:
[ul][*]MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 42%[*]OHIO: Biden 45%, Trump 44%[*]PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 47%, Trump 45%[*]WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 41% [/ul] New [link=https://www.nccivitas.org/polling/trump-biden-dead-heat/]Harper Polling poll[/link]:
[ul][*]NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 45%, Biden 44% [/ul]-
I usually factor in a 5 point swing for Trump. Looking good!
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Quote from radgrinder
Love the logic.
No one would ever mess around with anything anonymously online. Very unlikely. Im Nate Silver.
I always found it curious that after what happened in 2016, these people and the people who want to believe them, just keep saying the same thing they always did. It’s just odd. At best, they don’t know. At worst, Trump is blowing Biden out. In no universe is Joe Biden decidedly winning this race. He has less support than an unlikeable Hillary Clinton from 2016.-
[b]New Battleground Polls [/b]
[b][/b]
New [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/politics/trump-biden-polls-texas-georgia-iowa.html]New York Times/Sienna College polls[/link]:
[ul][*]GEORGIA: Biden 45%, Trump 45%[*]IOWA: Biden 45%, Trump 42%[*]TEXAS: Trump 46%, Biden 43% [/ul]
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New YouGov polls:
MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 45%
WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 46%-
Chrisopher Newport Univ: Biden 48%, Trump 43% in [b]Virginia[/b]?
I’m going to mostly ignore that one though. I’m not sure I can believe Virginia is as close as WI, MI, MN, and PA.-
Quote from Cubsfan10
Chrisopher Newport Univ: Biden 48%, Trump 43% in [b]Virginia[/b]?
I’m going to mostly ignore that one though. I’m not sure I can believe Virginia is as close as WI, MI, MN, and PA.
I’ll take the over on that one …. way low outlier.
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Biden+1 in Ohio, per Quinnipiac. Trump+5 in Texas
[link=https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=3675]https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/…-detail?ReleaseID=3675[/link]
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New Battleground [link=https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-tight-race-in-ohio-biden-tops-trump-in-nevada-and-pennsylvania]Fox News polls[/link]:
[ul][*]NEVADA: Biden 52%, Trump 41%[*]OHIO: Biden 50%, Trump 45%[*]PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44% [/ul]-
lol foxnews polls are always so bad.
Biden +5 in Ohio…thats like that virginia poll earlier. Or maybe we can believe the Trump +1 in Michigan Trafalgar poll 😛-
Ohios kind of funny though. I feel like Biden could get a win here. Obama won here. We also have given the nation a staunch douche bag in Portman as a Senator. The flip side of that is Sherod Brown as a den senator. He crushed Jim Renacci.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Ohios kind of funny though. I feel like Biden could get a win here. Obama won here. We also have given the nation a staunch douche bag in Portman as a Senator. The flip side of that is Sherod Brown as a den senator. He crushed Jim Renacci.
If, as the polling suggests, the reason that Biden is leading by a wider margin nationally than HRC was is because of his strength with older white working class voters, then it makes sense that Ohio would be one of the states that saw the biggest swing back toward blue.
The entire theory behind the reddening of OH was that is was getting older and whiter (compared to the rest of the nation) while having a lower educational attainment.
I could Biden winning Ohio by 3… I could also see him losing by 6.
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[size=”3″][link=https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/865/attachments/original/1600985448/Trafalagar_PA_Sept.pdf]Trafalgar Group*[/link] has Biden +2 in PA. (I’ll say that tracks with the average of the other polling as actually +5)[/size]
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[size=”3″][link=http://www.colby.edu/government/2020-polling/]Colby College[/link] Poll Maine[/size]
[size=”3″]Biden +11 statewide[/size]
[size=”3″]Biden +3 ME-02[/size]
[size=”3″]Biden +18 ME-01[/size]
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[link=https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/26/minnesota-poll-biden-holds-on-to-lead-over-trump]Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[/link]:
[ul][*]MINNESOTA: Biden 48%, Trump 42% [/ul]-
Trump is winning easily.
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[b]National race holds stead with two new polls[/b]
A new [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-biden-post-abc/2020/09/26/940ef678-ff7f-11ea-9ceb-061d646d9c67_story.html]Washington Post-ABC News poll[/link] finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally among registered voters, 53% to 43%.
“A sizable gender gap continues to fuel Bidens lead, with women making the difference in the current state of the race. Trump has a lead of 55 percent to 42 percent among male likely voters, but Biden has an even larger 65 percent to 34 percent advantage among female likely voters. Trumps lead among men is about the same as his margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Bidens lead among women is more than twice as large as Clintons was then.”
“The Post-ABC poll finds Trump with a narrow six-point edge among White likely voters (52 percent to 46 percent), smaller than his 16-point lead in a Post-ABC poll at this point in 2016 and his 15-point advantage in a [link=https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/]Pew survey of confirmed voters that fall[/link].”
“Another group whose allegiance today appears different than it was four years ago is voters 65 and older. Biden receives 52 percent support to Trumps 47 percent among this group. Trump carried those voters over Clinton by between seven and nine points, according to some surveys. Biden supporters 65 and older are also significantly more likely to say it would be a crisis if Trump won reelection, with 79 percent of them holding that view”
Interest in the election has climbed to near-record levels, with nearly 6 in 10 registered voters saying they are following the election very closely, higher than any in other presidential election at this time in the cycle dating back to 2000.
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A new [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/us/politics/poll-supreme-court-trump-biden.html]New York Times/Siena poll[/link] finds Biden leading 49% to 41%.
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In a survey of likely voters taken in the week leading up to Mr. Trumps nomination on Saturday of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the high court, 56 percent said they preferred to have the election act as a sort of referendum on the vacancy. Only 41 percent said they wanted Mr. Trump to choose a justice before November.”
“More striking, the voters Mr. Trump and endangered Senate Republicans must reclaim to close the gap in the polls are even more opposed to a hasty pick: 62 percent of women, 63 percent of independents and 60 percent of college-educated white voters said they wanted the winner of the campaign to fill the seat.”
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