-
2016 polls
-
The liberal media is to blame. They pushed their obvious agenda too hard, no subtlety at all. They lost all credibility throwing around the race card etc and trying to tell people what to think and believe. American people (educated or not) do not like people talking down to them or telling them what to think or believe. This is just something that is in the DNA of the country.
-
Americans are known for cutting off their nose to spite their face, yes. Thin-skinned contrarianism is alive and well.
-
That is yet to be determined. It is impossible to judge how successful or not Trump’s presidency will be. If he moderates his positions, which he appears to be doing, he will get the last laugh I predict. But, it is easy to judge how incredible biased the media was and they have lost a lot of credibility as a result.
-
Just saw Clinton up in popular vote by nearly 2 million
Nationals polls weren’t that off
Pollsters just missed rural areas totally
-
Pollsters were guilty of phoning it in to locales no one wants to visit anyway.
-
-
he and GOP are in a box–they either have to do what they say or they don’t
I hope the dems don’t enable them:–lets see if TPP gets picked back up by them;-the canada gas line goes right thru red sates–see how well they do should an event happen and water gets contaminated( like look at Flint)
the dakota pipeline–let the GOP handle thatQuote from macrophallus
That is yet to be determined. It is impossible to judge how successful or not Trump’s presidency will be. If he moderates his positions, which he appears to be doing, he will get the last laugh I predict. But, it is easy to judge how incredible biased the media was and they have lost a lot of credibility as a result.
-
[link=https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-d46e-da30-a3db-fefe45b50002]https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-d46e-da30-a3db-fefe45b50002[/link]
[link=http://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/"https:/academic.oup.com/poq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/poq/nfx047/4837043?redirectedFrom=fulltext"][b]2016 Polling Misses Explained: [b] Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) ad hoc committees analysis of the performance of preelection polls in 2016,[/b][/b][/link]
A new [link=http://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/"https:/academic.oup.com/poq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/poq/nfx047/4837043?redirectedFrom=fulltext"]Public Opinion Quarterly[/link] article finds that late movement to Donald Trump and a lack of education weighting were the best explanations for the state polling error in the 2016 presidential campaign.
[b]National polls were generally correct and accurate by historical standards.[/b]
[b]State-level polls showed a competitive, uncertain contestbut clearly under-estimated Trumps support in the Upper Midwest. [/b]There are a number of reasons as to why polls under-estimated support for Trump. The explanations for which we found the most evidence are:
[b] Real change in vote preference during the final week or so of the campaign.[/b] About 13 percent of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania decided on their presidential vote choice in the final week, according to the best available data. These voters broke for Trump by near 30 points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania.
[b] Adjusting for over-representation of college graduates was critical, but many polls did not do it.[/b] In 2016 there was a strong correlation between education and presidential vote in key states. Voters with higher education levels were more likely to support Clinton. Furthermore, recent studies are clear that people with more formal education are significantly more likely to participate in surveys than those with less education. Many polls especially at the state level did not adjust their weights to correct for the overrepresentation of college graduates in their surveys, and the result was over-estimation of support for Clinton.
[b] Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters. [/b]This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the socalled Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls. A number of other tests for the Shy Trump theory yielded no evidence to support it.
[/QUOTE]Other interesting findings:
There is no consistent partisan bias in US polling.
With budgets generally shrinking, unless some organizations step forward to conduct high-quality state level polling some inaccuracies could persist.-
[b]Swing State Pollsters Still Grappling with 2016 Problem[/b]
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/17/trump-polls-biden-324210]Politico[/link]: Pollsters arent deliberately skewing their surveys against the president and his party, as Trumps orbit alleges. The national polls showing Trump trailing Biden by an increasing margin arent phony or rigged.
But some pollsters, especially the relatively few who conduct surveys in battleground states, are still grappling with the same problems that plagued those polls four years ago. In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Bidens advantage.That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states.
-
Maybe they should just stop polling people and let election day stand for itself?
-
[link=https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1279429975154843655]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1279429975154843655[/link]”
[link=https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html][/link]Harry Enten (formerly of 538)
The release of rate of partisan polls correlates to results in the coming election
Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, where public polling is limited and there’s a real chance to shape the conventional wisdom.
Perhaps, it’s not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the [link=https://imgur.com/a/zJcvFtd]November[/link] [link=https://imgur.com/a/3UXB3OK]results[/link].
Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/]House polls[/link] taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That’s a very bad ratio for Republicans.
Interestingly, Republicans were the ones dominating the polling landscape in the first quarter of the year. From January through March, Republican and conservative groups released 10 polls compared with the Democrats’ 2.
The April turning point lines up well with when the coronavirus pandemic became the headline story of the year. It’s when President Donald Trump’s approval rating started an almost [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/]continuous decline[/link] that remains unabated.…
Since April, Democratic or liberal groups have released 30 statewide polls in the presidential race. Republicans have put out a mere 13. That means the Democratic share of statewide internal polls has been 70%.
All but four of the nine conservative or Republican sponsored polls have been from monthly [link=https://www.restorationofamerica.com/]Restoration PAC[/link] releases. And if anything, the polls that this group sponsors have been some of the worst for Trump recently.
This reminds me a lot of what happened [link=https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/14/politics/poll-of-the-week-partisan-polls/index.html]just two years ago[/link]. Almost universally, Democrats were the ones publishing their House polls publicly. They went on to have a net gain of 40 seats in the House. Democrats also won the House popular vote by 9 points.
Indeed, the 2018 example speaks to a larger pattern going back since 2004. Although Democrats tend to publish more internal polls publically, they do very well when that advantage is overwhelming.
When Democrats put out 70% or more of the internal House polls, there is a big swing in their direction in terms of the popular vote. Since 2004, Republicans have never published 70% or more of the internal House polls. The only time there was anything close to this on the their (2010), they picked up more House seats than in any election in the last 70 years.
When Democrats put out around 60% of the internal House polls, the national environment is usually fairly unchanged from the prior election.Anything less and Republicans are likely going to do well, such as the aforementioned 2010 election when Democrats share of the internal House polls released publicly was a mere 35%.
Democrats would definitely take a political environment that is mostly the same as it was in 2018. The numbers out recently suggest it could be even better for them. They point to a national political environment in which they’re favored by double digits.
For Republicans, something needs to change or they’re going to get blown out come November.
[/QUOTE]
-
Quote from Cubsfan10
Maybe they should just stop polling people and let election day stand for itself?
No, then their religion wouldn’t be able to “give them hope.” Rabbi Harry Enten and Priest Anthony Fauci love to tell them what to do, and they love to listen, even unto death.-
[link=https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/30/bidens-13-point-lead-meh-says-florida-1304179]https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/30/bidens-13-point-lead-meh-says-florida-1304179[/link]
[b]Biden +13 in Florida? …. Bipartisan disregard for Quinnipiac polling[/b]
in the battleground state of Florida, which is bracing for what could be a bruising and close presidential election, Quinnipiacs polls are being met with a shrug. Or an eyeroll.
In a statement, Quinnipiac defended its techniques and noted its predictions had come within 2 points of the winners margin of victory in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections.
But getting 2018s top-of-ticket races wrong was just one example. After a series of recent flubs, the Q-Polls reputation among Florida politicos and news outlets has been eroding. Florida no longer trusts the Q-Poll.
Its three letters: Meh, said longtime Florida Republican consultant David Johnson. On the plus side, Quinnipiac has united Floridas professional political class, Republicans and Democrats, on at least one issue.
The skepticism was on full display last week when Quinnipiac released the [link=https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668]poll[/link] showing Biden topping Trumpby 13 points among self-identified registered voters, a lead that would represent a landslide win in a state where skin-of-the-teeth victories are the norm. Florida had three statewide recounts in 2018 and its past two presidential elections were decided by roughly a single point.
Even Bidens allies scoffed at the data. Florida Democratic consultant Steve Schale, who is working for a pro-Biden super PAC Unite The Country said Biden might be leading Trump by between five and seven points. The states demographically entrenched electorate means presidential campaigns in the state will always be tight and bitterly fought.
Heres the reality in Florida our election and our electorate are very consistent, Schale said.
The July 23 poll also showed a 42 percent approval rating for DeSantis, with 53 percent of self-identified registered voters disapproving, a massive reversal from where Quinnipiacs polling had put him just four months ago, with a 53 percent approval rating.
DeSantis response to the coronavirus outbreak has drawn widespread criticism and many people believe its hurting his numbers. But not even Democrats believe the Republican governors fall has been that steep.
For whatever reason, the Q-Poll seems to miss the mark more often than not, and typically in a way that breaks our Democratic hearts, said Dan Newman, a Florida Democratic consultant.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/upshot/polls-biden-trump-how-accurate.html]Nate Cohn[/link]: [b]Even If the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still In Trouble[/b]
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?
Its a good question. But for now, its not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago.
The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clintons was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown.
-
Way I look at it
Trump barely won last time
He has made a lot of enemies and no real new friends
He is going to lose big
-
[h1]How to Look at National Polls[/h1]
[link=https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1288533832338112515]Nate Silver[/link]Nate Silver says national polling trends are more important than the lead itself.
In other words, I dont really care if Biden us up 8 nationally or whatever. I care about the numbers in Wisconsin, Florida, etc. But if Biden has gained 2 points in national polls, its likely that hes also gained roughly 2 points in Wisconsin and Florida since they were last polled.
In theory, you can also impute these trends from state polls (i.e. if Biden is gaining in Michigan, hes probably gaining in Wisconsin) and our model does do that too. But national polls give you a high volume of polls from a relatively constant set of pollstersmaking trend detection easier.
-
Quote from Chirorad84
Way I look at it
Trump barely won last time
He has made a lot of enemies and no real new friends
He is going to lose big
Luckily those of us who think straight, and bet money, don’t think like you do. Or we’d be broke. And losers. -
Ed Rendell on Smerconish thinks there is absolutely a “shy Trump voter effect” making the polls lean somewhere between 3-4 points too far in favor of Biden.
He used an example of PA … average of polls is Biden +9. Rendell says it probably more like Biden +6%.
-
That seems right. The only thing is that for some reason the “shy Trump” voter is not distributed evenly. Looking back at 2016 data, it appears that they were mostly in the Midwest for some reason.
So far, the Trafalgar polls seem to be most accurate again. Emerson does a good job as well.
Rasmussen is biased but good at tracking the national mood. If Trump is near 50/50 with Rasmussen on election day then I think he wins.
-
-
-
-
[link=https://politics.georgetown.edu/battleground-poll/august-2020/]https://politics.georgetown.edu/battleground-poll/august-2020/[/link]
Nate Silver: [i]A Georgetown/Battleground live-caller poll showing Biden up 13 lends some credence to the theory that Trump’s apparent gains in the polls may partly reflect mode effects.[/i]
___
Nate Cohn notes astoundingly: [i]Unbelievably, the Battleground poll–sponsored by Georgetown University and conducted by two fairly well known partisan pollsters–is not weighted by education and comes in at … 63 percent with a college degree. Holy cow.[/i]-
Yikes.
66% of non-college educated voted for Trump in 2016 and 37% of voting electorate has a college degree.
-
Here is my opinion
Nearly No one who in 2016 voted for Hillary will vote for trump
There will be a small percentage of those 3-6% of people who voted for trump will switch to Biden
The only way trump wins is if he can somehow turn out new voters or suppress democratic turnout
Or of course if he somehow cheats and gets a lot of mail in votes thrown out or not counted
I dont see trump winning any other way
-
Quote from Cubsfan10
Yikes.
66% of non-college educated voted for Trump in 2016 and 37% of voting electorate has a college degree.
David Wasserman (Cook Political Report) calls the failure to weight by education “polling malpractice”-
Quote from dergon
Quote from Cubsfan10
Yikes.
66% of non-college educated voted for Trump in 2016 and 37% of voting electorate has a college degree.
David Wasserman (Cook Political Report) calls the failure to weight by education “polling malpractice”
I agree with him. It’s one of the reasons why I said the other day that I don’t take a poll seriously unless they publish their affiliations/voter makeup. It makes you wonder how many recent polls are weighted improperly. I tend to think anything where Biden is more than +8 in a battleground state is extremely suspect.
It’s weird too because if its politically motivated then what’s the gain to show Biden so far ahead? If anything, I feel like that would depress Dem turnout? And, I don’t see any reason why the pollsters would want to help Trump. Is it just purely bad polling practices/negligence?-
[link=https://twitter.com/Redistrict]Dave Wasserman[/link]
[i]Pollsters like GWU/Lake/Tarrance, who find a massive partisan divide between college/non-college whites but refuse to re-weight a national sample that’s 47% (!) white college grads, are offering us a look at where the 2020 race might stand…inside a Whole Foods Market.[/i]
-
Wasserman again: FWIW, here would be my estimates for 2020’s electorate based on demographic change since ’16 alone…
10 closest ’16 battleground states:
46% non-college white
30% college+ white
24% non-whiteOther 40 states + DC:
39% non-college white
32% college+ white
29% non-white-
Did he try to calculate the actual poll numbers be re-weighting?
-
Also, I just noticed that same poll that has Biden +13 has Dems only +6 over Repubs on the generic ballot. May suggest college educated Republicans are not fans of Trump/might not vote.
-
[b]A Steady Race Where Movement Is Driven by Bystanders[/b][/h1]
[b]
[/b]
[link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/steady-race-where-movement-driven-bystanders]Amy Walter[/link]: According to the [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/]FiveThirtyEight model[/link], Bidens 9.6% lead in June has narrowed to an 8.3% lead in July. In trying to account for the change, we often dig into the cross tabs to see which demographic groups are responsible for this movement. Is it from seniors? Or those Obama-Trump voters? What about non-college white men?
In analyzing the last 18 months of polling from the Polling Consortium (which includes over 20,000 interviews), the AFL-CIOs Mike Podhorzer has found that most of that movement can be attributed to a group he dubs partisan bystanders. These are people who either hate both parties or dont have strong feelings one way or the other about either party. Some of them arent paying all that much attention to politics. Some of them are more checked in on politics. But, they are not deeply invested in their partisan allegiances. Podhorzer estimates that about 15% of the electorate falls into the bystander category.
In order for Trump to make a meaningful dent in Bidens margin, he needs to make Biden an unacceptable alternative or hope that Biden does that on his own through some sort of flub or misstep But if this race stays on the same steady trajectory its been on for the last 18 months, Trump remains the decided underdog.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Quote from Chirorad84
Here is my opinion
Nearly No one who in 2016 voted for Hillary will vote for trump
There will be a small percentage of those 3-6% of people who voted for trump will switch to Biden
The only way trump wins is if he can somehow [b]turn out new voters [/b]or s[b]uppress democratic turnout[/b]
Or of course if he somehow [b]cheats and gets a lot of mail in votes thrown out or not counted [/b]
I dont see trump winning any other way
If he does win then the answer will have been …
D) All of the above.-
Sure, because he couldn’t win unless he cheats?
#Resistance-
Not exactly
He could win if he turns out new voters or if somehow democratic voters dont turn out
But other than that I dont think he can win unless he somehow cheats
-
-
-
You can see the recent gains here…he is now running ahead of where he was vs. Hillary in the battleground states.
[link=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/]https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/[/link]
I think he will lose worse nationally (popular vote) than in 2016 no matter what. The heavily populated blue loath him even more than back then.-
New York & New Jersey loathed him long before he ran for president. He was always a C-grade celebrity wanna-be who cheated everyone he met.
-
-
[link=https://www.npr.org/2020/08/13/902265017/poll-biden-expands-lead-a-third-of-country-says-it-wont-get-vaccinated?live=1]NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll[/link] : Biden +11, up from +8
[blockquote] On the issues, Trump trails Biden substantially on who is seen as better to handle coronavirus or race relations. Biden has a 53%-to-37% lead on handling coronavirus, and an even wider 58%-to-34% advantage on handling race relations.Trump retains a narrow, 47%-to-45% edge on the economy, but that is has narrower than March when Trump had a clear 50%-to-42% lead…
Biden has now reached a majority (52%) with independents and leads Trump with this crucial group by 16 percentage points.
Trump and Biden are now [i]tied [/i]with whites at 48%. Trump had a 6-point advantage with the group at the end of June.
[/blockquote] ___________
Harry Enten: “Live interview polls this week… Fox News +7 Biden, Marist +11 Biden, Monmouth +10 Biden… Pretty clear picture there… A Biden advantage around or a less than 10 in the live interview polls.”If you buy the ‘shy Trump voter’ theory then you could think that live interview polls might be skewed a couple of points toward Biden in comparison online.
-
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/us/politics/trump-polls.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/us/politics/trump-polls.html
[/link]
Hidden Trump Voters Exist. But How Much Impact Will They Have?[/h1] [b]Republicans insist that millions of Americans want to vote for Trump but wont admit it. Polling experts tell a different story.[/b]The belief that Americans arent getting the real story about Mr. Trumps chances for re-election has taken hold among many of his supporters. For Trump loyalists, it is an appealing story, and one with some validity: The news media, which largely [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html]failed to anticipate[/link] Mr. Trumps victory in 2016, are undercounting his voters, many of whom are even more reluctant today than they were four years ago to declare themselves in his camp.
…
But the idea that there are substantial numbers of Trump voters who will emerge from hiding on Election Day, large enough to sway the outcome, is not supported by the latest public opinion research or by a proper understanding of what happened in past elections where the voter surveys were off, said pollsters who work for Republican and Democratic candidates.
This does not mean that [link=https://www.nytimes.com/topic/person/joe-biden]Joe Biden[/link]s lead, with the most recent national polls putting him ahead by as much as 10 points, wont tighten. And public opinion experts say there is growing evidence that Americans across the spectrum have become more skittish about sharing their political preferences outside of a trusted group of like-minded people. But it would be a huge leap to conclude that the countrys tense political dynamics are causing people to lie to pollsters in large enough numbers to explain Mr. Trumps poor standing.
There are many people who are voting for Trump who are in environments where its politically untenable to admit it because hes become so toxic, said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. But Im still not convinced that not telling your business associate or the people in your Rotary Club or the people in your country club is the same thing as not telling a pollster.
The possibility that Americans are hiding their true intentions from pollsters has provided an irresistible sense of intrigue to presidential elections before, even though there are few confirmed examples where it made a difference. Political experts compare such speculation to the quadrennial predictions of a brokered convention, which has not occurred since 1952.
…If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said, other numbers in the poll would reflect that, like seeing an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden. It would not be people saying they are voting for Biden, he said, but that theyre undecided.
…
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, has [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/28/sorry-republicans-polls-really-are-that-bad/]noted[/link] another warning sign in the data for anyone holding out hope that a hidden pocket of voters will save Mr. Trump: There arent many people backing a third-party candidate right now who could potentially switch to the Republican ticket. Mr. Olsen said in an email that while some conservative voters often park themselves with the Libertarian candidate in the months before an election, many eventually come home to the Republicans.
But the Libertarian Party candidate, Jo Jorgensen, is registering minuscule support in the polls now compared with the high single-digits that Gary Johnson, the partys 2016 nominee, was seeing at this point four years ago.
Still, among Republicans in North Carolina, none of these facts seem to dent their confidence or convince them that they should worry about polls showing Mr. Trump losing to Mr. Biden, or others that have the states Republican senator, Thom Tillis, behind his Democratic opponent, Cal Cunningham.
[/QUOTE]
-
-
[b]Trump Says You Cant Fairly Poll Registered Voters[/b][/h1]
President Trump said its not possible to do fair polls of registered voters only likely voters because many registered voters have died, [link=https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1296548022155960320]CNN[/link] reports.-
And Republicans talk about Biden’s mental status? Trump is certified. Or more likely his supporters are certified.
-
I don’t think there are millions of shy Trump voters. I do think [i]some[/i] polls are not accurately weighted as we previously found out.
-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/jpmorgan-says-prepare-for-rising-chance-trump-wins-second-term]https://www.bloomberg.com…trump-wins-second-term[/link]
JP Morgan analyst claims that people “giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%”
Nate Silver:
[color=”#14171a”]While one should always be alert to the possibility of systematic polling errors in either direction, this (alleging that polls are biased by 5-6 points against Trump because of shy Trump voters) is completely insane.[/color]
Again, one must be aware of the possibility of correlated polling error *in either direction*. I can imagine reasons that polls would underestimate Trump again. Can also imagine some reasons they’d underestimate Biden especially if pollsters are “fighting the last war” from 2016.
But usually, if someone is obsessed with shy Trump voters, it’s a sign that they have a sophomoric understanding of the field. It’s the sort of thing that makes you sound smart but doesn’t really have much evidence behind it once you’ve done the research.[/QUOTE]
_________
[color=”#14171a”]To be off by 5-6% systemically you would have to take the most historically inaccurate polls ever … then make them even worse by another standard deviation.[/color]-
5-6% seems like a lot. 2-3% maybe as we’ve talked about. Biden’s biggest issue will be getting people to actually punch/mail the vote IMO.
-
Nate Cohn:
We already have a lot of polls out this morning, and they add up to a fairly clear snapshot (along with polls earlier in the week): Biden’s still comfortably head, maybe up 7; Trump probably picked up a couple of points v. pre-convention.
Even if the president’s gains do stick, a 7 pt national deficit is probably not something for the president to feel great about, even stipulating that he could better off in the key E.C. states. For perspective, this is still basically better for Biden than any day from 3/15-6/1.
On the other hand, a 7 pt deficit does keep the president within striking distance, given the possibility of further change, polling error, and the E.C. edge. We’ll get some clarity on the E.C. when we finally get some state polls, starting w Monmouth in PA later today.
-
Nate Silver: “Bunch more national polls in, a pretty good batch for Biden. YouGov has Biden back up to +11 after having fallen to +6 post-RNC IBD/TIPP (live caller) has Biden +8 (RV) Rasmussen has Biden +4 which is more like 7/8 with their house effect.”
[link=https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301194969525506048]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301194969525506048
[/link]Harry Enten: “this data looks a lot more like 2018 than 2016 to me. A clear, but not ginormous split between the popular vote & majority of seats (or electoral college). And with the Democrat up nationally in the high single digits.”
-
[link=https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3671]https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3671
[/link][b]Biden +10 among likely voters in Quinnipiac’s new poll.[/b]
Nate Silver: Quinnipiac’s generally been one of Biden’s better polls all year, but their previous national polls were among registered voters, so to survive the RV to LV crossover at +10 is a pretty decent result for him.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Net result of yesterdays polling dump:
Race unchanged from before the conventions. 538 moves Biden back up from “slightly favored” to win (67%) to “favored” to win (70%) to back down to “slightly favored” (69%) …. a big wash.
_____
Digging around for what, if any, effect the Kenosha/national unrest is having …
The new [link=http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/09/02/rel9a.-.2020.pdf]CNN poll[/link] finds Biden leading Trump on who would better keep Americans safe from harm, 51% to 46%. ..[link=http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/09/02/rel9a.-.2020.pdf]Quinnipiac poll[/link] finds 50% of voters say Trump as president makes them feel less safe, versus 35% who say they feel safer.And the [link=https://politicalwire.com/2020/09/02/trumps-law-and-order-message-not-resonating/]new Fox News poll[/link] in Wisconsin found the issue of policing and criminal justice was not particularly resonating for Trump in the state where the recent unrest pushed him to pivot to the topic in the first place.
____
Maybe “law and order” is a better topic for Trump than Covid-19 or the economy or healthcare … but it doesn’t look like it’s driving changes in voter planis much … yet.-
Rasmussen has a tie in PA.
Harper polling had Biden +3 in Minnesota.
I actually could see MN and AZ swap parties the next few elections (at least).
The polls yesterday surprised me as they seem to still hold large Biden/Dem leads and some polls were way out there (like the AZ senate poll). I couldn’t get any good data on how many of the polls were performed, who they asked, etc. but will check more in depth.
The “mood” of the Dems and the betting odds seem to be shifting toward Trump but the polls yesterday didn’t reflect that. I’m not calling fouls on the “referees” but seems a bit strange.
In any case, as we have talked about before, I think a lot of Dems will stay home if they think Biden has it locked up because enthusiasm for him is low and that could actually cause Trump to win.-
Who exactly bets on elections?
-
And what is the fascination of the aunt Minnie Q-Anon with betting and wagers?
Strange fetish
-
I’m not sure. I don’t. It’s just a reflection of the “mood” since people are putting money on it. Same as when people bet on who is going to win any sporting event.
-
Quote from Chirorad84
And what is the fascination of the aunt Minnie Q-Anon with betting and wagers?
Strange fetish
Because its all the same troll with 10 aliases who is hung up on predictions and betting.-
We cant hear you over the sound of the cash register.
-
Quote from fw
Quote from Chirorad84
And what is the fascination of the aunt Minnie Q-Anon with betting and wagers?
Strange fetish
Because its all the same troll with 10 aliases who is hung up on predictions and betting.
[img]https://i1.wp.com/burners.me/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/obvious-troll.jpg[/img]
-
Good point about the generic ballot. That could be interesting to watch. In 2016, it was roughly 48 to 42 dems over repubs at this time. The gap narrowed a ton in the last couple of weeks before the election and was basically a tie day of the election. Will have to see if the same phenomenon occurs again this time. It did not occur in 2018.
-
Quote from Cubsfan10
Good point about the generic ballot. That could be interesting to watch. In 2016, it was roughly 48 to 42 dems over repubs at this time. The gap narrowed a ton in the last couple of weeks before the election and was basically a tie day of the election. Will have to see if the same phenomenon occurs again this time. It did not occur in 2018.
The 538 generic ballot in early Sept was +1 Dem. It maxed out at around Dem +4 for the entire cycle… but stayed tight all summer and fall. RCP bounced around a bit more (different methodology) but still topped out at around Dems +5 and was Dems +2-3 through september.
____
2018 hovered around Dems +8 the entire cycle start to finish, sometimes as wide as +10, but very steady:
[img]https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/generic-ballot-full.png?w=575[/img]
And 2020 looks a lot like 2018 … very steady in the +6-8 Dem range … hardly any volatility at all.
-
I was only looking at the RCP average, so that’s good to know.
I guess the only questions are whether anything happens (event-wise) to narrow the polls or if there truly is a larger “shy Trump” voter effect. Otherwise, signs point to Biden winning.-
Quote from Cubsfan10
I guess the only questions are whether anything happens (event-wise) to narrow the polls or if there truly is a larger “shy Trump” voter effect. Otherwise, signs point to Biden winning.
Agreed.
Although I’m not sure how being shy on Trump would directly change the generic ballot … unless the theory is that people are even afraid/unwilling to say that they prefer Republicans. (There has been some past data to suggest that people are less likely to respond to polls when they their party is getting negative press … but to hold systemically in every poll over an entire year is a bit a of a stretch IMHO)
For me it’s turnout. Trump drove non-college rural whites to vote in 2016… But it was only up to 58% turnout. That leaves lots of room for growth.
And for Dems, minority turnout fell in 2016. If they got Obama 2008 levels in 2020 it would be a landslide…. and even Obama 2012 levels is enough for a win when combined with improvements in College whites, women, and suburban votes. -
Trump Says Fox News Polls Are Fake[/h1]
President Trump on [link=https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301538617005875201]Twitter[/link]:
Fox News Polls are, as in the past, Fake News. They have been from the beginning, way off in 2016. Get a new pollster. I believe we are leading BIG! -
A new [link=https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3672]Quinnipiac poll[/link] in Florida shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 48% to 45%.
[/h2]
A new [link=https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3672]Quinnipiac poll[/link] in Pennsylvania shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 52% to 44%. -
[h1][b]What the National Polls Can Tell Us[/b][/h1]
[link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/two-months-go-steady-presidential-race]Amy Walter[/link] (Cook Political Report):Understandably, many folks are wary of relying on national polls to give us an accurate picture of the race. After all, Clinton’s 2.1 percent national margin was good for only 227 electoral college votes.
We also know that the country is as polarized as ever, making national polling less reflective of individual state outcomes.At the same time, high-quality national polls are more consistently fielded than high-quality state polls. And, for all the criticism of polling in the 2016 election, the national polls were also the most accurate.
As such, the best way to think of the national polls is that they can help get us in the right neighborhood, but not necessarily to the correct address. The bigger the margin for Biden, the less important that we get the exact address. For example, a seven or eight-point margin may not be enough to put Georgia or Texas into Bidens column. But, its enough to get him the states he needs to hit 270. [b]The closer the margin is to four points (like we saw back in March), the less helpful the national polls become.[/b] And, the more we should just assume a [link=https://electoralvotemap.com/]close contest for the Electoral College[/link].
-
[link=https://lewisformn.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/September-2-MN-Senate-Harper-Polling.pdf]https://lewisformn.com/wp…ate-Harper-Polling.pdf[/link]
Harper Polling – (Dem polling group)
Biden +8 in MN (50/42)
-
Quote from dergon
[link=https://lewisformn.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/September-2-MN-Senate-Harper-Polling.pdf]https://lewisformn.com/wp…ate-Harper-Polling.pdf[/link]
Harper Polling – (Dem polling group)
Biden +8 in MN (50/42)
That was May data. The new one is Biden +3 from that polling group.
Also, Trafalgar has FL with Trump +3. They also do not list their voter mix though they do sample all of Florida equally. -
Some of these polls need to be “checked” or “fixed” by someone.
[i][b]YouGov:[/b][/i] Biden +11; splits 44%D to 29%R (25% neither) on those who voted in primaries ([link=https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7kvpozbozh/econTabReport.pdf)]https://docs.cdn.yougov.c…ozh/econTabReport.pdf)[/link]
[i][b]IBD/TIPP:[/b][/i] no mention of breakdown of voters but has Biden +8 in the overall poll; However, has this nugget buried in the text ”
[b]Among registered independents, 24% say they agree with Trump on some issues but are reluctant to admit that in public.[/b]
[b]Despite Biden’s wider polling lead, just 42% of voters expect him to win, while 41% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 41% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, while 40% think their neighbors will largely back Biden.[/b]”
[i][b]USA Suffolk poll: [/b][/i] Good voter mix and data presentation. Lists Biden +7 in their headline but their data has him +5.3% in their best polls in survey (the one with all the candidates listed)
[link=https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2020/9_2_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=F6FD0E8A8E393EB725471B0608E5C43D3AB553FE]https://www.suffolk.edu/-…471B0608E5C43D3AB553FE[/link]
Those are just the first three I looked at.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
The “mood” of the Dems and the betting odds seem to be shifting toward Trump but the polls yesterday didn’t reflect that. I’m not calling fouls on the “referees” but seems a bit strange.
Well… the dem “mood” is understandably very fragile. The entire party has a collective electoral PTSD from 2016 which, when combined with an historically high level of voter engagement, causes collective gasps about what *might* happen.
And betting markets are pretty small, highly irrational, and potentially easily manipulated. The professional data analytics people suggest not to put any weight in to it because the betting market participant pool bears no resemblance to the electoral voting pool.
____
I think a lot of Dems will stay home if they think Biden has it locked up because enthusiasm for him is low and that could actually cause Trump to win.
I agree somewhat… but I don’t get the sense from anyone that I know or from the media narrative that Dems think Biden has it locked up. (See above)
But as for the enthusiasm gap I see it as two-sided. There is enthusiasm [b]for[/b] the candidate and enthusiasm [b]against[/b] the opponent.
In 2016 Trump rode a lot of negative enthusiasm against HRC in to the WH. The 2018 midterms was predominantly about Dem enthusiasm against Trump. Will that same 2018 enthusiasm be enough to drive 2020 turnout? That’s the million dollar question.
Right now it looks like yes (and the generic ballot would suggest that too… still Dems +7-8 on average) … but that’s unknowable until the votes are counted.
-
-
-
Dergon still owes me money from all the bets hes lost.
I dont mind.
Hes going to need that $ for at least 12 more years of antidepressants.
-
Trafalgar is black box. They add a weighting meant to predict shy Trump voters by asking people polled who they *think* their neighbor will vote for and adding that to their results.
If they end up being right, bully for them … everyone else is off by 7-8%. But it is absolutely a very different methodology.
And they are a consistent outlier relative to just about everyone else.
-
Republicans are voting twice!
Once in the polls for Biden.
Once in the voting booth for Trump.Sneaky!
-
-
Trafalgar group head pollster bets Nate Silver $10,000 that he will be more accurate than 538
(Silver declines for prowl cession always ethics reasons)
-
Silver is smart, but also a more than a bit of a weenie and a weasel. Ive followed him since his Baseball Prospectus days.
Very good at trumpeting when hes correct, plenty of smart sounding reasons when hes wrong. Never puts skin in the game.
-
Quote from dergon
Trafalgar group head pollster bets Nate Silver $10,000 that he will be more accurate than 538
(Silver declines for prowl cession always ethics reasons)
Eh, Idk if they will be more accurate than 538 since 538 is an amalgam/meta-analysis of polls. RCP I think was the closest last time but they aren’t their own polling either.
This is a good snapshot from a paper to show the pros and cons of Trafalgar:
[b]3.2.4 Using a Question about Neighbors Vote to Adjust for [i]Shy Trump[/i] Responding[/b]
As discussed above, polls generally under-estimated Trumps support in Pennsylvania and Michigan but there was one exception. Trafalgar Group, a Republican-affiliated IVR firm, was the only pollster to correctly project Trump victories in both states. In fact, in each of the six battleground states they polled, they over-estimated support for Trump. In states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Trafalgars pro-Trump tilt yielded impressive results. But in Colorado and Florida, the over-estimation of Trump support led to larger absolute errors (3.9 and 2.8 points, respectively), albeit with numbers that projected the correct winner. While Trafalgar did forecast Trump wins in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, they were not necessarily the most accurate pollster or even the most accurate IVR poll in 2016.
Two distinctive design decisions seem to explain why Trafalgars results were consistently more favorable to Trump. They took a novel approach for producing final vote preference estimates. According to their methods report, the final published ballot test is a combination of survey respondents to both a standard ballot test [i]and a ballot test gauging where respondent’s neighbors stand[/i]. This addresses the underlying bias of traditional polling, wherein respondents are not wholly truthful about their position regarding highly controversial candidates. (emphasis added) The general idea is that if people will not admit they personally would vote for Trump, they would admit that their neighbors would. As Stinson (2016) reported, the other distinctive feature of Trafalgars polling was that they selected their samples from voter files using a more-inclusive-than-normal approach that included registered voters who had not voted for years. Some had not voted since 2006. According to Trafalgar CEO Robert Cahaly, other pollsters tend not to sample such records.
It is not clear what the relative contributions of these two factors were on the overall performance of the poll. Also, while the Trafalgar methods statement asserts that the incorporation of the neighbor vote intention question is effective because it corrected for [i]Shy Trump[/i]-type responding (and that may have been the case), it also seems possible that in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania it was correcting some other error (e.g., over-representation of Democratic-leaning college graduates). The methods report suggests that Trafalgar, like a number of other IVR pollsters, did not measure respondent education, so this may remain something of a mystery. Regardless it is informative to observe that these two unusual methodological levers were pulled and they had the effect of overcoming the general pro-Clinton error that seemed to plague most pollsters to varying degrees in 2016. On its face, the practice of using a more inclusive voter file sample that brings in dormant voters seems like something others may want to evaluate. The other idea of integrating reports about neighbors vote choice with self-reported vote choice also warrants experimentation in a broad array of contests so as to better understand the properties of that measurement approach.
[link=https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx]https://www.aapor.org/Edu…-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx[/link]-
Looks the FL polls are heading back toward toss-up land.
Marist college (A+ rating by 538) has it as a tie with LV and Trump +1 with RV.
Ohio poll by Rasmussen is interesting with Biden +4. I would be very surprised to see Ohio bounce back blue and if it does then that means all of the Midwest goes blue.-
Swing state polling:
New polls from [link=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-30-august-4-september/]Redfield & Wilton Strategies[/link]:
[ul][*]Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 43%[*]Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 44%[*]Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 40%[*]North Carolina: Trump 44%, Biden 43%[*]Pennsylvania: Biden 48%, Trump 43%[*]Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 41% [/ul]-
Quote from dergon
Swing state polling:
New polls from [link=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-30-august-4-september/]Redfield & Wilton Strategies[/link]:
[ul][*]Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 43%[*]Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 44%[*]Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 40%[*]North Carolina: Trump 44%, Biden 43%[*]Pennsylvania: Biden 48%, Trump 43%[*]Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 41% [/ul]
Love that they provide their data…
– All of the results have gone toward Trump since their previous polling except NC (+2 to +1)
– Only 69-77% of the people say they are definitely going to vote (rated as a 5/5) and 78-87% if you include 4/5. Coupled with a 10-15% enthusiasm gap, this could be a problem for Biden – actually getting the voters to go out and vote.
– Only 46-54% feel very comfortable about telling their friends who they are going to vote for (5/5 rating; add 15-20 with 4/5)
[b]- All states said they thought Trump was more likely to win by 1-10% margins except MI (Biden +1) . This is a discordant result and I’m not sure if it means nothing or means everything. Basically saying, I’m telling you I’m picking Biden but I’m pretty sure everyone else is picking Trump.[/b]
– The economy and healthcare are #1 and #2 issues in every state polled by a wide margin over #3
– All states said the protestors were “rioters” rather than “peaceful protestors” in Wisconsin and WI, NC, and PA blame BLM > Trump, AZ and FL say it’s both equally and MI says Trump > BLM but all are close margins
– Trumps approval rating is underwater in all the states (roughly 44-50ish in each one)
No formal listing of party affiliations although they do say this: “Data were weighted by age, gender, region, ethnicity/race, education level and 2016 Presidential Election Vote”
-
Polls are more fun when they have the news sources the people watch attached.
Polls dont describe what people think. They describe the effectiveness of the brainwashing received by their favored narrative source.
-
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/2020-election-polls-trump-leads-biden-in-az-fl-mi-nc-pa-and-wi.html]Change Research[/link] (C- pollster rating)
[h1]Biden Maintains leads in six 2020 swing states[/h1]
[img]https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106694403-1599597699484-20200908_Biden_v_Trump_poll.png[/img]Biden holds at least a narrow lead in all six of the states, which will play a major role in determining who wins the White House on Nov. 3. Here is where the race stands in all of those states, and how it has changed from the last survey:
[ul][*][b]Arizona:[/b] Biden 49%, Trump 45% (was Biden 49%, Trump 47%) [*][b]Florida:[/b] Biden 49%, Trump 46% (unchanged)[*][b]Michigan:[/b] Biden 49%, Trump 43% (was Biden 50%, Trump 44%) [*][b]North Carolina:[/b] Biden 49%, Trump 47% (was Biden 48%, Trump 47%)[*][b]Pennsylvania:[/b] Biden 50%, Trump 46% (was Biden 49%, Trump 46%)[*][b]Wisconsin:[/b] Biden 50%, Trump 44% (was Biden 49%, Trump 44%) [/ul] The poll, taken Friday through Sunday, surveyed 4,143 likely voters across the six states and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
[/QUOTE]
_____
And this [link=http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_PA-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009081145.pdf]Marist College[/link] poll will Biden campaign (and nervous Dems) breathe just a bit more easily about PABiden 53, Trump 44 … [b]Biden +9 among Likely Voters in Pennsylvania[/b]
-
-
[link=https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-poll/poll-biden-leads-trump-by-12-points-nationally-among-likely-voters-reuters-ipsos-idUSL1N2G529V]Ipsos
[/link]
[h1]Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll[/h1]52% of likely voters planned to support Biden, while 40% would back Trump. Three percent said they would vote for another candidate, and just 5% said they remained undecided with less than two months to go until the Nov. 3 presidential election.
The survey showed the number of voters who had not yet backed a major-party candidate to be less than half of what it was in 2016, and that Biden currently had the advantage in securing the national popular vote.…
The poll showed likely voters being primarily motivated by the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 186,000 Americans and put millions out of work, and restoring trust in government.
When asked what was driving their pick for president, 28% said it was the candidates perceived ability to handle the coronavirus, and 23% said it was the ability to restore trust in government. An additional 19% said it was the candidates ability to boost the economy, and 14% said they were looking for a candidate who is tough on crime.
Fifty-one percent of likely voters said Biden would be better at handling the U.S. coronavirus response, while 38% said Trump would be better.
But Trump has the edge when it comes to their perception of who would be tough on crime and civil unrest, with 45% choosing Trump, while 40% said Biden would be better.
On the economy, neither candidate has the upper hand among likely voters: 45% of likely voters said they thought Biden would be better for the national economy and expanding the workforce, while 45% said they thought Trump would be best.
[/QUOTE]-
Small but significant move in the FiveThirtyEight election forecast. Was down to Biden 69% likely to win coming out of conventions and at the peak of Kenosha.
Now up to Biden 74% likely to win.
-
Heh. Notice that the Nobel Peace prize nomination for the Middle East deal doesnt move the needle.
-
A Norwegian far-right MP nominates Trump (again) and it’s not huge electoral news in US?! Shocking.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
So that poll seems to say that covid is driving the voters’ choice. Interesting.
-
Quote from Cubsfan10
So that poll seems to say that covid is driving the voters’ choice. Interesting.
Yes. Covid is still the biggest voter concern in the US.
-
Dont underestimate suburban people who are pissed off because of the schooling situations.
-
Heh. Peace in the Middle East and Serbia/Kosovo.
Dergon doesnt GAF. Orange man bad.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
Dont underestimate suburban people who are pissed off because of the schooling situations.
yeah … recent polling on that links in with the “Covid is the number 1 issue”
[link=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/05/covid-19-20-say-its-safe-reopen-schools-now-amid-pandemic-survey-finds/5706890002/]https://www.usatoday.com/…rvey-finds/5706890002/[/link]
As students across the country return to school amid the coronavirus pandemic, only one in five Americans say it’s safe right now to reopen schools and universities, according to a new survey.
That is an 11 percentage point increase from the number of Americans who said the same in late-April
…
In addition, only one-quarter of Americans with children in the home say they would definitely send their child back to school if restrictions were lifted on the advice of public health officials, according to the[link=https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/2020-election-voters-nationscape-insights/?question=abortion_conditions] Nationscape Insights analysis[/link], a project of Democracy Fund, UCLA and USA TODAY. Twenty-four percent said they would probably do it.
The survey also finds almost 2 out of 3 Americans (61%) also say they strongly or somewhat support closing schools and universities.
There was some chatter here that the “teachers unions” would end up taking the blame for closures, but I’ve seen no polling evidence of that kind of backlash that would cut in favor of Trump/GOP.
My best assessment is that the overall public view of Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic likely spills over into who is to blame for school closures as well.
-
Yeah the media has done a great job of continuing to spread fear and Dem talking points re: covid.
-
I would say that that the media has done a good job of making sure that the public is fully aware of the health risks posed by Covid-19 and that the level of public “fear” is roughly appropriate to the threat … but toMAYto toMAHto
political effect is the same.
-
-
-
-
-
-
We’ve hashed this out many times before so I won’t do so again here.
We will just have to see how that issue plays out in November.-
Well Bob Woodward throwing gas on the fire at an interesting time.
-
Selling books. Later would be on discount bin
-
Obviously discount bin. What was I thinking? The guys only had like a dozen best sellers. It’s not like his interviews with Trump are recorded either.
-
Ha! It seems like the Suckers and Losers hoax is about played out. Time for the Trump downplayed COVID hoax.
Its going to be a human centipede of hoaxes from now until November, one staggered after the other, a coordinated pageant. Republicans will look on in amusement, Democrats will look on in feigned shock at the spectacle. The polls will show Biden up +110% to Trump -10%, and on November 3rd the election will be too close to call or a Trump landslide, Democrats will cry shenanigans or something. Life will go on, Ill end up getting richer from the whole clusterfark and someone will call someone a racist.
I think Ill treat myself to a nice sirloin tonight.-
I actually feel bad for Nate Silver a bit.
Hes more bearish on Biden than most.
So if Biden wins, Silver is mocked for being too bearish.
If Trump wins, Silver is mocked for being waaaay off and being the smarty smartie with a big bad statistical model that missed a Trump election not once but twice.
Being well experienced….Silver knows this.
Expect the 538 projections to tighten.-
A new [link=https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1303744324933488646]Marquette Law School poll[/link] in Wisconsin finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 47% to 43% among likely voters.
-
-
“Its going to be a human centipede of hoaxes from now until November, one staggered after the other, a coordinated pageant.”
Holy crap you ain’t kidding I think Dergon is personally going to resurrect every single dead Trump thread for the past 4 years.-
At least its a shorter list for dergon than to list all of Trumps lies.
-
We’re only like 1 hour in to the news from Woodward’s latest book … I’m sure there are a lot more thread bumps to come
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Pretty much. I do enjoy the full blown media panic about all the bad bad things the mean man allegedly said.
It will be interesting to see if people get inoculated to the Trump says mean things in private category of story.
-
Trumpers are inoculating the bed now with fecal material
Havent seen them this hysterical in a few months
-
Actually….nobody cares
-
Of course lies are good
We mericans cant handle the truth
Rather believe in fantasy land or reality shows
-
-
-
-
[link=https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn] Nate Cohn [/link]
If we’re going to talk about ‘shy Trump’ voters, it’s worth being clear about what we’re really talking about.
The old version of the theory just doesn’t make sense, but there are others that can’t be discounted.This, to me, is simply not a ‘shy’ Trump vote. It is a Trump vote that’s spitting in the face of the pollster,
not one afraid to show off the confederate flag hat that they’re wearing. But it would be more dangerous for polling and it would be harder to identify …Now for that same reason, there’s just not a ton of evidence that this is a real problem, either.
Education + undecided voters + turnout covers a whole lot of what went wrong in ’16 and 2018 was good enough for most purposes.
But I don’t see how you can disprove it, either.-
[b]Biden Holds Small Edge In Florida [/b]
[b][/b]
A new [link=https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1304015710558003200]Benenson Strategy Group poll[/link] in Florida finds Joe Biden edging Donald Trump, 48% to 46%.
A new [link=http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September8_O3DH1.pdf]St. Pete Polls survey[/link] finds Biden ahead 50% to 47%.-
Quote from dergon
[b]Biden Holds Small Edge In Florida [/b]
[b] [/b]
A new [link=https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1304015710558003200]Benenson Strategy Group poll[/link] in Florida finds Joe Biden edging Donald Trump, 48% to 46%.A new [link=http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September8_O3DH1.pdf]St. Pete Polls survey[/link] finds Biden ahead 50% to 47%.
The Benenson Group polls appear to be only voters aged 50+ for what it’s worth.-
Quote from Cubsfan10
Quote from dergon
[b]Biden Holds Small Edge In Florida [/b]
[b] [/b]
A new [link=https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1304015710558003200]Benenson Strategy Group poll[/link] in Florida finds Joe Biden edging Donald Trump, 48% to 46%.A new [link=http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September8_O3DH1.pdf]St. Pete Polls survey[/link] finds Biden ahead 50% to 47%.
The Benenson Group polls appear to be only voters aged 50+ for what it’s worth.
“Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump are locked in a tight contest among likely Florida voters, a new [link=https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2020/election-poll.html]AARP public opinion survey[/link] finds. But while Biden leads Trump 48 percent to 46 percent among all Sunshine State voters, Trump has opened a 50 percent to 47 percent margin over Biden among voters age 50 and older.”-
Oh man… I linked to it from 538 and it tricked me with the 50+ stuff. You’re right, there are two separate results hidden in there for each state.
-
Yeah… it got me too….
AARP decided to really stress the over 50 graphics in layout
-
Harry Enten: “Right or wrong, there have been 5 ME-2 polls since mid-Summer… Average is Biden +1. I doubt it’ll be the tipping point, but ME-2 could play a pivotal role in a very close election.”
Nate Silver (replying): “Our model’s prior in ME-2 is pretty pro-Trump, but the polls are starting to move it to more of a toss-up. If Biden is improving relative to Clinton with older working-class whites, it’s pretty winnable for him. ”
-
-
-
-
-
-
