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If I had 15 mill, I’d be out now. A bit dicey to retire without 15 mill at 40 though imo. If economy tanks again soon, the govt may decide it’s preferable to lower rates again and run hot inflation. They could even tolerate inflation at 4-5% if they’re crazy enough. 4-5% inflation per year would erode your savings quite a bit. Consider with 4% inflation, 15 mill would be worth about 5 mill in today’s dollars in 2055. If 2% average inflation you’re talking 15 mill being worth about 7 mill.
Retiring at 40 with 2 million seems crazy unless you are a lot happier doing a lower paying job. If you’re frugal and can live on less than 100k a year, you can probably make 2 million work.