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Look, all you guys are making valid points.
And, sure, you have to at least question why would Mike Green tell us all his ‘secrets’ about the markets, if his firm is hedging against indexing and stands to make ALL of the money if it all goes bust.
These are great questions – I get it. But, maybe this guy just has enough integrity to warn other investors (I know that this is asking A LOT of most sleazy Wall Street types) about what he has discovered. I am probably in the minority, but I believe him.
I’ve also wondered why markets are not following true valuations based on discounted cash flows and future earnings. It’s strange, and his theory does explain a lot of what might be going on.
If he’s wrong, then we will both look like fools.
But, if he’s right, then it’s financial Armageddon. I think that the feds will try to avert a catastrophe, but they may not be able to, if his math turns out to be correct. I am hedging my bets heavily on his theory, but I might be wrong, for sure.
I completely understand if everyone disagrees, though.
Most of the time the ‘herd’ is correct. But, not every time.
I go back to this one question: If everyone is doing something (passive investing) why should it pay you an excellent return (ie. Why should it give you alpha)? I just don’t buy it.
Good luck.
