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Will it be embarrassing for Nate Silver if Romney wins?
I am saying IF just because I want your unbiased opinion.
85-15? Is this guy serious?
Most of my detractors think it’s impossible for Romney to get 300 electoral votes. Fine. But there is a great chance Romney can win the popular vote and Silver has this thing 85-15?
For those unaware of odds, that’s a money line of approximately +550 for Romney, conversely a book would make it around -600 for Obama, meaning that you would have to risk $600 to win $100 if you took Obama.
Amazing. -
82 Replies
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What Silver is saying is that 15/100 times Romney would win..why would he be embarrassed if this were one of the 15 times?
Ever seen an oddsmaker embarrassed?-
Quote from Thor
What Silver is saying is that 15/100 times Romney would win..why would he be embarrassed if this were one of the 15 times?
Ever seen an oddsmaker embarrassed?
And just in case you don’t really understand, this is the analogy, literally:
8 Las Vegas sportsbook have the Falcons/Cowboys game at Falcons -4.5
One lone sportsbook, off the reservation, at the end of the strip (who also happens to be a Falcons Fan) says it should be Falcons -14.5
Two problems:
a) Said sportsbook would immediately be out of a job, they’d get pounded with Cowboy money at that price
b) The Falcons are 6-0. Obama is actually similar to a team that won in Week 1 (2008) and went 2-4 thereafter … leaving a bad taste in the mouths of their fans … which is funny because it’s the inverse of this game I’m using as an example.
Learn something about probabilities and statistics, please-
Bernardini,
You are one strange dude. You have gone on record guaranteeing a Romney win. You have said things like Romney has a "lock" on this election, saying that this election is over, promising a "blowout" win for Romney and that he will coast easily. You have given Romney a 100% chance of winning. Now, you are having a hissy fit because a blogger writes that Obama has a 85% chance of winning. Your hypocrisy is quite amusing.-
Quote from njdoc
Bernardini,
You are one strange dude. You have gone on record guaranteeing a Romney win. You have said things like Romney has a “lock” on this election, saying that this election is over and that he will coast easily. You have given Romney a 100% chance of winning. Now, you are having a hissy fit because a blogger writes that Obama has a 85% chance of winning. Your hypocrisy is quite amusing.
[u][i][b]NO[/b][/i][/u],
I’m stating beforehand that people are hypocrites because they won’t even admit to honest things before we see results. You couldn’t be more confused:
Let’s review the questions, you partisan hack, clearly you haven’t ready anything I wrote, you are just responding to deride me, not take on any of my thoughts/examples/objections
1. Who will win? A: Romney. If I have to predict quantitatively, it will be big.
2. Is Silver’s prediction so out of the norm that it is literally insane? A: Yes.
3. Given that Silver suggests a relative Obama lock compared to all polling and other oddsmakers from Vegas, offshore and in the UK, why are you mad at me? A: Because I am saying Romney will win.
4. Why do you call people out BEFOREHAND? A: They look doubly stupid when you not only predict the result, you also predict their pathetic responses, just showing how devoid of true thought and insight they really are.
LOOK AT WHAT I’M SAYING. Re-read your post. You act like I’m blogging for a major newspaper, getting paid for it, and putting my reputation on the line. In actuality, I am only putting my reputation on the line for you people, and when Romney wins the silence will be deafening.
You are the same people that scoff at a model that has predicted every presidential result since 1980, all the while stroking Nate Silver’s lone 2008 prediction/model, which was an outlier/historical anomaly. Literally 1 sample.
What you don’t realize is that I’m very familiar with his PECOTA models and saw tons of media coverage on them about the White Sox when he was in Chicago in 2007 … the only year he was right about that team in the 3 years before and the 3 years after … yet no one wanted to report that. Why? It wasn’t a good story.
We’ll see his flash in the pan days come to an end very shortly. 48 hours, son
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Bernardini, I did read your post. Trying to follow your so called "logic" is like going on a wild goose chase full of strange twists, odd turns and roads that lead absolutely no where. Ugh. I feel dizzy and sick. I think I’m going to throw up
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Bernardini, you are delusional.
Nate Silver isn’t insane. He is just using a Monte Carlo statistical method on the state polls plus some other lower weighted factors to produce his prediction. Some guy on Redstate.com closely replicated his numbers using a Microsoft excel plug-in and the state poll data. Silver admits that if the polls are biased enough against Romeny than his model might fail.
So basically you don’t think the state polls are accurate, after all real clear politics no toss ups maps has Obama winning 290 electoral votes, not much less than what Silver is predicting and not a different outcome at all.
You go ahead and believe that the polls are all wrong and at Romney will win. You are going to look like a partisan hack after this election; one who takes faith in his feelings rather than objective data and logical reasoning
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Bernardini,
I have no doubt that you are very passionate about your beliefs. That is admirable. However, you have got to learn to write better if you want to have a constructive dialogue. Learn to express your ideas in a concise and straightforward manner. Be logical and lay out your argument in an organized fashion. There are many community colleges which offer excellent writing courses and I advise that you take advantage of them.-
Quote from njdoc
Bernardini,
I have no doubt that you are very passionate about your beliefs. That is admirable. However, you have got to learn to write better if you want to have a constructive dialogue. Learn to express your ideas in a concise and straightforward manner. Be logical and lay out your argument in an organized fashion. There are many community colleges which offer excellent writing courses and I advise that you take advantage of them.Why are you wasting bandwidth trying to get through to Bernardini? Zealots don’t give a crap about being civil or reasonable. They’re only interested in stuffing their ideology down your throat until you either cry Uncle, or die.
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Quote from seagull
Bernardini, you are delusional.
Nate Silver isn’t insane. He is just using a Monte Carlo statistical method on the state polls plus some other lower weighted factors to produce his prediction. Some guy on Redstate.com closely replicated his numbers using a Microsoft excel plug-in and the state poll data. Silver admits that if the polls are biased enough against Romeny than his model might fail.
So basically you don’t think the state polls are accurate, after all real clear politics no toss ups maps has Obama winning 290 electoral votes, not much less than what Silver is predicting and not a different outcome at all.
You go ahead and believe that the polls are all wrong and at Romney will win. You are going to look like a partisan hack after this election; one who takes faith in his feelings rather than objective data and logical reasoning
In my reading, the crucial factor in what the final poll number says is the judgement used to determine the mix of partisans you are using. You can poll all you want, find that 95% of Reps will vote for Romney, 95% for Obama, and then if you project that the turnout will be Dem +4 – you get -surprise- a 4 point Dem win (ignoring for the moment for the sake of clarity the independent vote).
So Silver says: “I projects a Dem win, but if the polls are biased enough against Romney, I will be wrong” amounts to making no prediction at all. A first grader could do that. The same as reporting that “I read the polls today, and they say Obama is ahead”.
Others are looking critically at the methodology and are saying that there is no reason to believe that there will be a +8 Dem advantage in the turnout (as CBS/NewYorkTimes/Quinnipiac mysteriously chose), but even – as Gallup tested with a poll – a modest advantage in turnout for the Reps.
Seems that Silver just produced a nice article with lots of graphs that predict nothing – they just read the raw top line numbers the polls put out. And he gets it published in the NYT so he can feed his kids. So, it’s not all bad. -
Quote from seagull
Bernardini, you are delusional.
Nate Silver isn’t insane. He is just using a Monte Carlo statistical method on the state polls plus some other lower weighted factors to produce his prediction. Some guy on Redstate.com closely replicated his numbers using a Microsoft excel plug-in and the state poll data. Silver admits that if the polls are biased enough against Romeny than his model might fail.
So basically you don’t think the state polls are accurate, after all real clear politics no toss ups maps has Obama winning 290 electoral votes, not much less than what Silver is predicting and not a different outcome at all.
You go ahead and believe that the polls are all wrong and at Romney will win. You are going to look like a partisan hack after this election; one who takes faith in his feelings rather than objective data and logical reasoning
What are you going to say when Romney wins tomorrow.
This is going to be a lot of fun. I hope you show your face around here, bud-
Lux, are you serious? As long as he draws readers to the Times? Hiring anyone that would have put up “Obama is ahead” as a main fixture for all the liberals worried that they must have some sort of “statistical” foundation for their confirmation bias would have drawn up big readership for that rag.
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Quote from Bernardini
What are you going to say when Romney wins tomorrow.
This is going to be a lot of fun. I hope you show your face around here, bud
OK, since you asked…
What I am going to do if there is a “Big Romney Win” tomorrow is publish my acknowledgement of that fact, and totally ignore any post by “Ben and the ‘Dinis”. I will certainly continue to consult this blog (hey, this place is a friggin’ blast) because there will be a lot of meaty analysis from the more educated and objective participants of these discussions, but I won’t waste my time reading [i]your[/i] incessant baseless crowing.
What will YOU do in the event that Obama wins?
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I made the wager that I’d retire from the board. Do you not recall? I actually will fulfill that promise. I’ll admit to defeat and foolishness with a single post.
Do you think any of your liberal friends would do the same? We’ll see.
I already gave the analysis MONTHS ago on specifically what would happen and why. I’m not sure why you’d say I’m just a talker. The supposed experts will have no credibility tomorrow. I will.
End of story.
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I remember well all those unemployed football prognosticators after the Giants beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl and I bet they were embarrassed too.
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Let’s get serious for a second, folks.
Do you think that Silver is not obnoxiously favoring Obama? I’m not saying that Obama shouldn’t be a close favorite (markets seem to indicate that) but saying he’s 86% is like saying the Giants and 49ers are playing again and the line should be Giants -14 -
Quote from Bernardini
Let’s get serious for a second, folks.
Do you think that Silver is not obnoxiously favoring Obama? I’m not saying that Obama shouldn’t be a close favorite (markets seem to indicate that) but saying he’s 86% is like saying the Giants and 49ers are playing again and the line should be Giants -14
Why are you obsessing about Nate Silver when there’s only one day to go?
His math isn’t saying Romney doesn’t have any chance of winning. It’s saying Romney has a 14% chance of winning.
No one gives a crap how much you believe that your own gut feel somehow trumps Nate’s calculations.
Give it a rest for cryin’ out loud.
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[b]I made the wager that I’d retire from the board[/b]
[b]
[/b]
Do you really think anyone cares?
Is like internet cred your 15 minutes of fame? -
Quote from kpack123
[b]I made the wager that I’d retire from the board[/b]
Do you really think anyone cares?Is like internet cred your 15 minutes of fame?
Looks like B’dini thinks he’s Donald Trump.
I only wish B’dini would offer me $5 million in exchange for [u][i]MY[/i][/u] college records! lol -
The single most influential reason Obama may win:
[link=http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/11/05/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-1105-OHrate/fivethirtyeight-1105-OHrate-articleInline.jpg]http://graphics8.nytimes….rate-articleInline.jpg[/link]
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Dini you keep misreading Silver…he isn’t saying that Obama is going to win by 14%. He is saying the numerous state polls in battleground states show that historically speaking the chance of enough of the polls being wrong and or flipping sufficient to give Romney an electoral victory is rather small. Your whole theroy is based on the view that all the polls favoring Obama are 1) biased and 2) wrong based on nothing more than your desire for them to be wrong. That may be so, but then you basically should be saying that polling and pollsters should all be out opf jobs. Remember these same pollsters have a stake in their livelihoods if they are wrong and there is really little incentive (if you believe in free markets) for them to systematically bias against one candidate…
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Wow bernardini will retire and make a new screen name because he will be so embarrassed. Way to take a stand sir!
Ad yes I will come on here and admit defeat if I’m wrong in believing that these state polls are all inaccurate. I also won’t retire my screenname.
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Which two pollsters were the best last time? Rasmussen and Pew. Most of the others were off by a high margin (most said Obama would even win bigger).
I think my insight and common sense is superior to the pollsters and market in this instance and that is why Romney will be the next president of the United States. -
Ok, I’m getting ready for the apology Seagull.
I really won’t post anymore, not sure why you wouldn’t believe that. You guys always try to cover all the bases. Too bad that by definition losers can’t. -
[link=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html]http://www.realclearpolit…e_map_no_toss_ups.html[/link]
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Cann someone tell me why the conservatives get all worked up by Silver? As I said before,his numbers are derived from that state polls. If they are biased, then get mad at the polls. Silver isn’t a pollster.
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Because he is not only a pollster but a liberal elitist hipster with Weezer glasses. IF you’re a right winger you *hate* dudes like that…..especially if they bring ill news.
Quote from Nate Silver
I regard myself as a rational progressive. I believe in intellectual progress that we, as a species, are gradually becoming smarter. I believe that there are objectively right answers to many political and economic questions.
[blockquote] I believe that economic growth is both a reflection of and a contributor toward societal progress, that economic growth has facilitated a higher standard of living, and that this is empirically indisputable. I also believe, however, that our society is now so exceptionally wealthy even in the midst of a severe recession that it has little excuse not to provide for some basic level of dignity for all its citizens.
[/blockquote] [blockquote] I believe that answers to questions like these do not always come from the establishment. But I also believe that it is just as important to question one’s own assumptions as to question the assumptions of others.
That’s why too.
[/blockquote] -
Silver’s model now projecting that there is only an 8.5% chance we will ever have to read bernardini’s rants again.
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Quote from seagull
Cann someone tell me why the conservatives get all worked up by Silver? As I said before,his numbers are derived from that state polls. If they are biased, then get mad at the polls. Silver isn’t a pollster.
Conservatives always get worked up about the TRUTH because facts have a pesky tendency to contradict their ideology.
When the message is true, kill the messenger.
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ESPN Streak for Cash running 85% for Obama…
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Wow, you boys are confident. This should be fun.
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Before you run away, Bernardini, maybe you can do a post mortem of the Romney campaign? What would have happened had he ran as a moderate in the 1st place instead of waiting a couple of days before voting?
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IF Romney loses, and especially if both of the republican teap party “rape” candidates also lose after primarying out respected moderates, the republican party would be foolish to see it as anything but being put on notice that allowing the far fringe of your party to take control is a path to electoral loss.
Romney *could not* run as a moderate and win the primary. Nobody in 2012 could have run as a moderate and won the republican primary. -
Quote from dergon
Romney *could not* run as a moderate and win the primary. Nobody in 2012 could have run as a moderate and won the republican primary.
Totally agree, but the enigma is that he waited so long AFTER the primary to become the centrist. My biggest fear was that after kicking Santorum out of the ring he would become just like Obama and make a killing. But waiting until the first debate is what made this a close race. I think Romney would have a double digit lead by now if he had centricized right after the primary. In that regard, Ryan has been a clear impediment, especially if they end up losing Wisconsin.
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Quote from Lux
Quote from dergon
Romney *could not* run as a moderate and win the primary. Nobody in 2012 could have run as a moderate and won the republican primary.
Totally agree, but the enigma is that he waited so long AFTER the primary to become the centrist. My biggest fear was that after kicking Santorum out of the ring he would become just like Obama and make a killing. But waiting until the first debate is what made this a close race. I think Romney would have a double digit lead by now if he had centricized right after the primary. In that regard, Ryan has been a clear impediment, especially if they end up losing Wisconsin.
I just spent 20 minutes on the phone with a republican friend after he voted. To paraphrase his part of the convo: “I told you that dumba** Romney should have picked Portman for VP! Now he’s going to lose the race because of Ryan and not being able to get Ohio!”
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Quote from dergon
Quote from Lux
Quote from dergon
Romney *could not* run as a moderate and win the primary. Nobody in 2012 could have run as a moderate and won the republican primary.
Totally agree, but the enigma is that he waited so long AFTER the primary to become the centrist. My biggest fear was that after kicking Santorum out of the ring he would become just like Obama and make a killing. But waiting until the first debate is what made this a close race. I think Romney would have a double digit lead by now if he had centricized right after the primary. In that regard, Ryan has been a clear impediment, especially if they end up losing Wisconsin.
I just spent 20 minutes on the phone with a republican friend after he voted. To paraphrase his part of the convo: “I told you that dumba** Romney should have picked Portman for VP! Now he’s going to lose the race because of Ryan and not being able to get Ohio!”
The conspiracy theorist in me says that Romney was coerced into choosing Ryan by luminary Republicans who have their eyes set on running in ’16 after Obama’s 2nd term. That whole campaign is just too weird to be considered authentic.
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CNN last poll in 2008 was right on nationally Obama 53 McCain 46
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The only poll this year that seems to be an outlier is Gallup and even it has it basically tied now so expect tomorrow to be a coin flip in the popular vote
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Rassmussen in 2008 was wrong on many state polls including Ohio Florida and North Carolina
So to say they wer the most accurate is just not true
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Kpack, you should let the delusion live for another 24hours or so.
The koolaid hangover is nearly here for the conservatives!
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The revisionist history is what is amusing
If you go back and look at realclearpolitcs politics final polls for 2008, most polls were right there Gallup and Fox were the most off base
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92%
He’s quadrupling down! -
Bernardini, I’m gonna blow your mind:
[link]http://election.princeton.edu/[/link]
99.8%
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Bernardini said he would admit to foolishness and give a full mea culpa. I am waiting
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Silvers prediction was 303 electoral votes for Obama
Looks like he was a victim of right wingers attacking the messenger
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Kpack you nailed it on the head. Romney conceded defeat. Its over and guess what, silver is 50/50 contests so far. With Florida still outstanding, he might have gotten EVERY single state correct.
Nate Silver is amazing!
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Quote from njdoc
Bernardini said he would admit to foolishness and give a full mea culpa. I am waiting
He said he was going to go away. I wonder if he’s a man of his word.
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Quote from Back in the Saddle
Quote from njdoc
Bernardini said he would admit to foolishness and give a full mea culpa. I am waiting
He said he was going to go away. I wonder if he’s a man of his word.
You can call it [i]”man of his word”[/i] if you prefer. I call it[i] “coward”[/i]. Where’d he go? No accountability. No humility. No acknowlegment of the outcome. Simply a vile, hateful, cancerous growth on humanity. Nothing more.
A [i]’stinking rose’ [/i]by any other name is still a head of garlic.
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Lux, do you want me to stay? This is why you guys are the worst. You make scenarios that put people in lose/lose situations.
And the part about vile hateful and cancerous is just classic — as if you know my heart.
I was wrong and my faith in the electorate recognizing things as they are was foolish. The left mobilized its supporters amazingly. They deserve a lot of credit for “winning.”
Shall I step away now (and fulfill the bets) or are you going to vilify me even more? See how it is? I try to make good on my word and even that isn’t accepted.
Typical, unfair, hate speech spewing guys who can’t even be classy and let another person admit that he was wrong. -
Bernardini,
I am glad you have posted again and i hope you stick around. Maybe others feel differently, but i never wanted you to leave the forums. If this forum was only visited by democrats, we would just be preaching to the choir. Democracy thrives when there is a diversity of opinion.I do think that democrats are frustated by a republican party which seems to occupy a parallel universe. You admit to being wrong about the election result as if it was just a minor mathematical error. However, that was far from the case. You and aladoc and saddestrad all made over the top extreme guarantees of a romney win. You were not wrong by just a little bit, you were way way off. Obama is going to have well over 300 ele toral votes.
Its not enough to say you were wrong, but i think it would be constructive to see why you were so wrong. I think republicans make assumptions that have no basis in reality. If republicans can be so wrong about the election, what else are they wrong about? Climate change? Tax policy? Alleged liberal bias?
In short, i think republicans should act with more humility. Republicans do not know everything and do not have all the answers. Democrats certainly do not know everything and certainly do not have all the answers. Compromise and negotiation will be necessary.
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Quote from Bernardini
I was wrong and my faith in the electorate recognizing things as they are was foolish. The left mobilized its supporters amazingly. They deserve a lot of credit for “winning.”
That’s the only thing you’ve ever written here that’s worth reading.
I have no patience for name-calling arrogant bullies like you. Don’t start that crap about how we don’t know your [i]”heart”.[/i] You wear your heart on your fingertips with every character you type, and it’s a rotten heart. Just go back and read the lunatic posts you’ve written in these discussions.
Farewell. I’ve held my patience long enough with you. You promised you would go, so GO!!!
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Njdoc,
Only lately. Mainly since a certain someone was banned. At some points I felt AM was fortress of conservatives, republicans & libertarians. Almost all “colorful” in personality & opinions.
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Glad to see bernardini wiping the egg off his face. Silver was right all along! He has been vindicated (once again)
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Quote from Lux
Quote from Back in the Saddle
Quote from njdoc
Bernardini said he would admit to foolishness and give a full mea culpa. I am waiting
He said he was going to go away. I wonder if he’s a man of his word.
You can call it [i]”man of his word”[/i] if you prefer. I call it[i] “coward”[/i]. Where’d he go? No accountability. No humility. No acknowlegment of the outcome. Simply a vile, hateful, cancerous growth on humanity. Nothing more.
A [i]’stinking rose’ [/i]by any other name is still a head of garlic.
I am gone. I just thought I’d leave your last message to show your hypocrisy. I was accountable. So after I man up, you say GO?
You’re the small man. You’ll see Obama and the Democrats record after 8 years and probably keep blaming other people. It’s hysterical you even claim to be honest. With that said,
OVER and OUT -
[link=http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/pageviews/2012/11/sales-of-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-book-shoot-up-post-election]http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/pageviews/2012/11/sales-of-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-book-shoot-up-post-election[/link]
Nate Silver is going for the [link=http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/nate-silvers-book-sales-skyrocket-148893.html]gold[/link].
In the 24 hours following the election, sales of Silvers The Signal and the Noise, published in September, jumped 850% on Amazon, according to [link=http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/07/news/companies/nate-silver-election/index.html]CNNMoney[/link]. It currently stands as the second best selling book on the website, behind the childrens book, The Third Wheel, Diary of a Wimpy Kid Book 7. -
[link=http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/pageviews/2012/11/sales-of-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-book-shoot-up-post-election]http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/pageviews/2012/11/sales-of-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-book-shoot-up-post-election[/link]
Nate Silver is going for the [link=http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/nate-silvers-book-sales-skyrocket-148893.html]gold[/link].
In the 24 hours following the election, sales of Silvers The Signal and the Noise, published in September, jumped 850% on Amazon, according to [link=http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/07/news/companies/nate-silver-election/index.html]CNNMoney[/link]. It currently stands as the second best selling book on the website, behind the childrens book, The Third Wheel, Diary of a Wimpy Kid Book 7. -
Looks like Nate Silver was right.
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[link=http://www.salon.com/2015/02/22/nate_silver_mostly_i_was_getting_credit_for_having_pointed_out_the_obvious_and_most_of_the_rest_was_luck/]http://www.salon.com/2015…_of_the_rest_was_luck/[/link]
A nice interview with Nate Silver on 2012 as we gear up for 2016.
[h1]Nate Silver: Mostly I was getting credit for having pointed out the obvious and most of the rest was luck[/b][/h1] [h2][b]My perfect 2012 forecast was fortuitous — but contributed to the perception that statisticians are soothsayers[/b][/h2]
I enjoyed some of the attention, but I felt like an outlier even a fluke. Mostly I was getting credit for having pointed out the obvious and most of the rest was luck.
To be sure, it was reasonably clear by Election Day that President Obama was poised to win reelection. When voters went to the polls on election morning, FiveThirtyEights statistical model put his chances of winning the Electoral College at about 90 percent. A 90 percent chance is not quite a sure thing: Would you board a plane if the pilot told you it had a 90 percent chance of landing successfully? But when theres only reputation rather than life or limb on the line, its a good bet. Obama needed to win only a handful of the swing states where he was tied or ahead in the polls; Mitt Romney would have had to win almost all of them.
[h2][/h2] [h2][/h2] [h2] [/h2]
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Quote from Bernardini
I’m stating beforehand that people are hypocrites because they won’t even admit to honest things before we see results. You couldn’t be more confused:
Let’s review the questions, you partisan hack, clearly you haven’t ready anything I wrote, you are just responding to deride me, not take on any of my thoughts/examples/objections
1. Who will win? A: Romney. If I have to predict quantitatively, it will be big.
2. Is Silver’s prediction so out of the norm that it is literally insane? A: Yes.
3. Given that Silver suggests a relative Obama lock compared to all polling and other oddsmakers from Vegas, offshore and in the UK, why are you mad at me? A: Because I am saying Romney will win.
4. Why do you call people out BEFOREHAND? A: They look doubly stupid when you not only predict the result, you also predict their pathetic responses, just showing how devoid of true thought and insight they really are.So basically, Nate Silver has a huge statistical database full of hundreds of national and state polls from the planet’s best polling services, he puts them through a complex series of calculations that consider population homogeneity, sampling bias, margin of error, the decreasing amount of time remaining to the election, regional demographics, historic trending, conventions, debates, news, and even the friggin’ [i][u]WEATHER[/u][/i], and then derives various probabilities. But that’s not good enough for Bernardini.
Bernardini has a much more effective method: his own opinion based on personal bias. No numbers. No logic. No rationale.
Let the reader decide.
Regarding the OP, Silver will only be “embarrassed” if he loses his contract at the NY Times. Otherwise, as far as he’s concerned, win or lose, as long as he draws readers to the Times, his contract is secure and “538” is a success.
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The short answer is “Yes”. If Romney wins, Silver’s methodology will be questioned. Same goes for Ramussen and Gallup on the other end.
Nate Silver uses an electoral mapping to base his percent liklihood of a Romney or Obama.
He has essentially stated that he will only be incorrect if the state polling turns out to be inaccurate. But if Romney wins (and therefore the majority of the state polling *was* inacrrate), Silver will still be on the hook for having not adjusted his model to note the state polls were off.
48 hours to go to find out 🙂
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Yes but who really cares
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Thanks Dergon, good response.
Thor, you lose all credibility. Your answer is akin to saying that if he gave a 99.5% probability and Romney won, that would still be same since “He gave Romney a 0.5% chance to win”
Laughable. You can’t even try to be nonpartisan on this type of question? Dude, this is pathetic.
I can’t wait until you lose on Tuesday.
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Silver up to 86.3% liklihood with yesterday’s assessment –
State and National Polls Come Into Better Alignment[/h1] By [link=http://www.auntminnie.com/author/nate-silver/]NATE SILVER[/link] It appears that President Obama is likely to go into Election Day with a very modest lead in the average of national polls.
As of this writing, on Sunday evening, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.3 percentage points across 12 national polls that had been published over the course of the prior 24 hours. The range was quite tight, running from a tied race in the polls issued by Rasmussen.
This happens to be a reasonably friendly group of polls for Mr. Obama, and its more likely than not that at least some national polls published late Sunday or on Monday will still show Mitt Romney ahead.
Nevertheless, there is enough data to conclude that Mr. Obama probably has a slight edge from national surveys, which until recently had pointed toward a tie or perhaps a modest advantage for Mr. Romney in the immediate aftermath of the Denver debate.
A number of these polls had very large sample sizes, meaning that the results are less likely than usual to have resulted from statistical variance…… -
I would say Silver has a lot on the line for his reputation-
a headline today on Yahoo finance page:
[b]Political Analyst Nate Silver Bets The Farm On Obama[/b]For the last couple of years, Silver has never shown Obama as having a less-than-even chance of winning, despite some polls that gave Romney an edge.
Unlike almost everyone else who prognosticates about the election, Silver has a highly detailed data-based methodology that averages hundreds of state polls and takes into account factors like economic data.
But we’re in “silly season” now, so every time Silver opens his mouth, the folks who are rooting for Romney accuse him of being an idiot, being “in the tank” for Obama, or both.
This criticism itself is silly. Silver is transparent about the way his model works. The model could be wrong, but Silver has always been clear about the methodology. Those who slam Silver mostly don’t like what his data is showing–that Romney is likely to lose.
The Silver critics are right about one thing, though:
[b]If Romney does win, Silver’s reputation will take a severe hit.[/b]
Unlike the vast majority of prognosticators and pundits, Silver has the balls to back up his model with his wallet and mouth. For the past couple of weeks, Silver has been extremely outspoken in defending himself, even going so far as to challenge [link=http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-bets-joe-scarborough-2012-11]pundit Joe Scarborough to a bet[/link]. This vocal defense has garnered huge publicity: [link=http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-search-trends-2012-11]Searches for Silver’s name on Google have soared[/link].
What that means is that Silver has, effectively, bet the farm.
If Obama wins, as Silver’s model is now predicting, Silver’s reputation will become gold-plated, and the traditional pundits who are calling the election a “toss-up” will look like clueless mealy-mouthed wimps.
If Romney wins, however, Silver’s reputation will go “poof.”
And that’s the way it should be. …..
There is way, way too much consequence-free prognostication these days. Analysts like Silver deserve credit for laying it all on the line.
(For what it’s worth, having listened to the logic of Silver and the Silver critics, I’m betting on Silver. He has calmly, patiently, and persuasively nuked every counter-argument that has been thrown at him. And his critics, meanwhile, are now just resorting to logic-free assertions and insults.)-
Oh, so all of a sudden I’m not crazy?
Silver does have a lot on the line? It can’t be true if B’dini says it … but if someone else says it, then it could possibly be true.
You see, Dergs, the way your friends work around here?
Rejoice, I only have 9 more hours to post on here, right? [;)]-
Quote from Bernardini
Oh, so all of a sudden I’m not crazy?
Huh? That’s a bit of a non sequitur. “Dergs” made it pretty clear that the Republican buddy fully acknowledged Romney is likely to lose. What’s your point?
I hope YOU aren’t the one having a change of heart!-
It’s going to be a great night for Obama!
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According to you guys, I’ve got only 3 more hours …
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Glad u r still showing your face around these parts. Good luck, and have another large solo cup full of the Kool-aid
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Watch, it’s going to be the 4th quarter … and by then the Obama D is going to be gassed and the breakthrough will come
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You really don’t believe me that if I lose I’ll vanish? Haha
I’m sippin’ my cup
You’re pounding shots! Haha -
It’s a vote count, Obama and Romney can’t do anything now except wait.
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Nate Silver’s predictions are looking pretty solid up to this point. Bring on the final swing state results!
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Bernardini now needs a Romney win in FL, CO, VA, NC, and NH for his continued existence. Not looking bright for him, drink up koolaid sir there is still a potential path to victory!
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Silver predicted 303 for Obama
Dickie Morris predicted 321 for Obama
Didn’t hear many lefties whining about morris
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The righties are not based in REALITY. Bernardini, what do you think about the results so far?
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Wager boy goes bye bye
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I bet bernardini isnts going to be willing to crawl out of he rat nest he came from. Good riddance u hack, guess what? THE POLLS WERE RIGHT!
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Nate Silver went all in. Looks like he modelled it dead on.
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A nice piece on Silver’s perforance (spoiler alert — He is *not* embarassed)
[link=http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/]http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/[/link][b]Triumph of the Nerds: Nate Silver wins 50 States[/b]
[link=http://mashable.com/follow/topics/barack-obama]Barack Obama[/link] may have comfortably won re-election in the electoral college, and squeaked a victory in the popular vote. But here is the absolute, undoubted winner of this election: [link=http://mashable.com/follow/topics/nate-silver]Nate Silver[/link] and big data.
The [link=http://fivethirtyeight.com/]Fivethirtyeight.com[/link] analyst, despite being [link=http://mashable.com/2012/11/02/nate-silver-twitter/]pilloried by the pundits[/link], outdid even his 2008 prediction. In that year, his mathematical model correctly called 49 out of 50 states, missing only Indiana (which went to Obama by 0.1%.)
This year, according to all projections, Silvers model has correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states. A last-minute flip for Florida, which finally went blue in Silvers prediction on Monday night, helped him to a perfect game.
A caveat: Florida has not yet been called officially, but Obama is in the lead with 98% of precincts reporting. If anything, Silvers placing of Florida on a knife edge makes him look even more prescient. No wonder one of the nights more popular tweets suggested that he was actually from the future, working from old newspapers.
What does this victory mean? That mathematical models can no longer be derided by gut-feeling pundits. That Silvers contention TV pundits are generally no more accurate than a coin toss must now be given wider credence.
The great thing about a model like Silvers (and that of similarly winning math nerds, such as Sam Wang of the [link=http://election.princeton.edu/]Princeton Election Consortium[/link]) is that it takes all that myopic human bias out of the equation. The ever-present temptation to cherry-pick polls is subverted.
You set your parameters at the start, deciding how much weight and accuracy youre going to give to each poll based purely on their historical accuracy. You feed in whatever other conditions you think will matter to the result. Then, you sit back and let the algorithm do the work.
Silver may be a registered Democrat, but he learned back when he was doing baseball analysis that hed never get anywhere if his models werent absolutely neutral, straight down the line between feuding teams. -
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[b]FiveThirtyEight on the Chopping Block[/b][/h1]
[link=https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-and-fivethirtyeight-are-on-abcs-chopping-block]Daily Beast[/link]: A decision on the future of the famed politics, economics, and sports analysis website is set to be made by the summer when Nate Silvers contract is up, multiple people with knowledge of the situation told us.
Teagan Goddard: You can only [link=https://politicalwire.com/2018/03/01/fivethirtyeight-loses-6-million-year/]lose huge amounts of money[/link] for so long.-
and chopped …
[link=https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168]https://twitter.com/NateS…us/1650899579234140168[/link]
Nate Silver: Disney layoffs have substantially impacted FiveThirtyEight. I am sad and disappointed to a degree thats kind of hard to express right now. Weve been at Disney almost 10 years. My contract is up soon and I expect that Ill be leaving at the end of it.
[link=https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/nate-silver-leaves-538-abc-news-disney-layoffs-1235401689/]https://www.hollywoodrepo…ey-layoffs-1235401689/[/link]
Nate Silver Out at ABC News as Disney Layoffs Once Again Hit News Division[/h1] ABC News is expected to retain the FiveThirtyEight brand, with plans to streamline the data-driven site.
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