[btomba_77]

A follow-up from Pew:

[url=http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics/]The generation gap in American politics[/url]

From immigration and race to foreign policy and the scope of government, two younger generations, Millennials and Gen Xers, stand apart from the two older cohorts, Baby Boomers and Silents. And on many issues, Millennials continue to have a distinct and increasingly liberal outlook.

Millennials remain the most [link=http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-in-adulthood/]liberal and Democratic[/link] of the adult generations. They continue to be the most likely to identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic. In addition, far more Millennials than those in older generational cohorts favor the Democratic candidate in Novembers midterm congressional elections.

In fact, in an early test of midterm voting preferences (in January), 62% of Millennial registered voters said they preferred a Democratic candidate for Congress in their district this fall, which is higher than the shares of Millennials expressing support for the Democratic candidate in any midterm dating back to 2006, based on surveys conducted in midterm years.[/QUOTE]

[img]http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/01110511/030118_O_1.png[/img]

[img]http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/01121258/030118_O_5.png[/img]

_______

[link=http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/new-survey-young-staying-liberal-conservatives-dying-off.html]Jonathan Chait[/link]: For obvious reasons, the broadly liberal demographic trends in American politics have received much less attention since the 2016 election. Yet the fact remains that America is politically sorted by generations in a way it never has before. The oldest voters are the most conservative, white, and Republican, and the youngest voters the most liberal, racially diverse, and Democratic. There is absolutely no sign the dynamic is abating during the Trump years. If anything, it is accelerating.

The most recent [link=http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/01/the-generation-gap-in-american-politics]Pew Research Survey[/link] has more detail about the generational divide. It shows that the old saw that young people would naturally grow more conservative as they age, or that their Democratic loyalties were an idiosyncratic response to Barack Obamas unique personal appeal, has not held. Younger voters have distinctly more liberal views than older voters.

[btomba_77]

[link=http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/]New Pew Demographic Trends Survey 2018: [/link]
[h1][link=http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/]Wide Gender Gap, Growing Educational Divide in Voters Party Identification[/link][/h1] [b]Persistent gender gap.[/b]

[b]Record share of college graduates align with Democrats.[/b]

[b]Continued racial divisions in partisan identification.[/b]

[b]Larger differences among whites by education.[/b]

[b]Millennials, especially Millennial women, tilt more Democratic.[/b]

[image]http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/20093551/1_1.png[/image]

[image]http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/20095447/2_5.png[/image]

[image]http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/20095448/2_6.png[/image]

[image]http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/20095452/2_8.png[/image]
 

[btomba_77]

[b]Growing divide in party affiliation[/b]

A new [link=http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/]Pew Research study[/link] looks at the growing divide in party identification based on educational attainment, gender, and generation.

The most striking finding is that the Democratic advantage among millennial women has soared from roughly 20-points in 2014 to 47-points last year.

[image]https://politicalwire.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/pew-research-millennials.png[/image]

[Unknown Member]

@dergon,

Not sure which of these factors are INDEPENDENT factor.

Example:
Studies have shown religious views are one of the strongest predictors of voting Republican, irrelevant of many other factors.

Many studies also have shown that people with higher education are less religious and even if religious are more secular.

Now if an educated person votes democrat, it is not clear whether it is because of his/her education or is because of his less religious beliefs.

The main problem in this country these days is having just two big parties and “identity politics”.

Many physicians that I know closely are democrats in their social life but vote Republican mostly because of its tax benefits.

[heenadevk1119_462]

“More education” is funny too since it is just as easily a proxy for “indoctrinated at modern marxist university” especially when young, not having truly worked or paid taxes , etc.

[btomba_77]

The visuals of new House should send a shiver through anyone who cares about future of Republican Party. One side looks like America and our future, the other looks like board meeting of a 1950s corporation. A basic law of politics: be for the future not the past.

GOP strategist Stuart Stevens

[tdetlie_105]

Quote from dergon

The visuals of new House should send a shiver through anyone who cares about future of Republican Party. One side looks like America and our future, the other looks like board meeting of a 1950s corporation. A basic law of politics: be for the future not the past.

GOP strategist Stuart Stevens

 
Aside from what they look like I am really interested in what their policies/views are (beyond hate/impeach Trump).  I know its extremely early but looks like Pelosi will have her hands full.  

[btomba_77]

Teagan Goddard:

[b] [link=https://politicalwire.com/2020/07/15/the-parties-are-realigning/]The Parties Are Realigning[/link]   [/b]
 
[b] [/b]
The latest quarterly [link=https://mehlmancastagnetti.com/wp-content/uploads/Great-Acceleration-Mehlman-Q3-2020.pdf]slide deck[/link] from lobbyist Bruce Mehlman highlights the extraordinary political realignment taking place in the country.
Heres one slide that caught my eye:

[image]https://1lme911nv0cg3ned26127983-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/parties-are-realigning-e1594822830181.png[/image]
 
Mehlman sees the 2016 presidential election as a turning point in a broader political realignment, with college-educated suburbanites shifting towards the Democrats and working-class whites shifting towards the Republicans.

He also notes the record level of racial and gender polarization in the electorate. Women now overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates, while Republicans have become an even whiter party in the Trump era.

These trends have only accelerated throughout Trumps presidency.

A decade ago, the most reliable predictor of a voters partisan leanings was whether they went to church each week. Today, education level is an even better predictor of which party they support.

As the electorate continues to split on race, gender and education, expect even the culture wars to ramp up in the coming years.

 

[clickpenguin_460]

That’s pretty crazy.  Republicans are totally changed due to Trump and 2016.
 
I think this “realignment” will lead to more disillusioned independents/moderates as I consider myself to be (former Repub.).  It’s a shame the Dems abandoned the “Blue dog” constituency.

[btomba_77]

There are still 26 Blue Dog Democrats.
 
Yes, the Democratic party has moved left, but not nearly as much as the GOP has moved right.
 
[image]https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/0XKpPxYh4WFO_xfEEXGjCkHY6ZE=/300×388/media/img/posts/2014/06/no_name-1/original.jpg[/image]
 
[link=https://grist.org/politics/asymmetrical-polarization-the-lefts-gone-left-but-the-rights-gone-nuts/]https://grist.org/politics/asymmetrical-polarization-the-lefts-gone-left-but-the-rights-gone-nuts/[/link]
 
)this data only comes to 2012 …. there has been a leftward tilt of the dems from 2017 to now … would like to see updated info … but the polarization still asymmetric imho …. the Republican right lurch has a 10-15 year head start)

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from dergon

There are still 26 Blue Dog Democrats.

Yes, the Democratic party has moved left, but not nearly as much as the GOP has moved right.

[image]https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/0XKpPxYh4WFO_xfEEXGjCkHY6ZE=/300×388/media/img/posts/2014/06/no_name-1/original.jpg[/image]

[link=https://grist.org/politics/asymmetrical-polarization-the-lefts-gone-left-but-the-rights-gone-nuts/]https://grist.org/politics/asymmetrical-polarization-the-lefts-gone-left-but-the-rights-gone-nuts/[/link]

)this data only comes to 2012 …. there has been a leftward tilt of the dems from 2017 to now … would like to see updated info … but the polarization still asymmetric imho …. the Republican right lurch has a 10-15 year head start)

 
How do you reliably assign a number to someone to show how conservative or liberal they are.  Seems dubious.   Who decides what the “center” is?  Issues change over time.  

[btomba_77]

There is a scientific measurement… the basis of the link above. It’s called the DW Nomintate score.
 

  Political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal have done [link=http://voteview.com/political_polarization.asp]fascinating work on political polarization[/link] in Congress using a measurement of partisanship over time called [link=http://voteview.com/dwnomin.htm]DW-NOMINATE[/link] scores. (Click that link if you want to nerd out on the algorithms; its mostly about voting records.) The graph below shows what they found, going up to 2004. (I wish I had it extending to 2012; the trends have gotten more pronounced recently.) The humps are the distribution of Congresscritters in each party. The vertical lines under the humps are the [link=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean]mean[/link] point of each partys ideological distribution. Each graph is a Congress; read left to right, top to bottom:
 
…
 
Two things jump out. First, over the 32 years leading up to 2004, the mean Dem moved six points to the left and the mean Republican moved 22 points to the right. Much farther! And second, there is virtually no overlap left between the parties. The humps have almost entirely separated. In short, the chart shows asymmetrical polarization.
For kicks, heres another way to view it, focused on the House of Representatives (the Senate graph looks much the same). It shows the mean of each party over time and its distance from center:
 
 
…
 
Heres the way [i]Id[/i] put it: Today, the national Democratic Party contains everything from the center-right to the far-left. Economically its proposals tend to be center to center-right. Socially, its proposals tend to be center to center-left. The national Republican Party, by contrast, has now been almost entirely absorbed by the far right. It rejects the basic social consensus among post-war democracies and seeks to return to a pre-New Deal form of governance. It is hostile to social and economic equality. It remains committed to fossil fuels and sprawl and opposed to all sustainable alternatives. And it has built an [link=https://grist.org/article/2010-09-09-the-rights-climate-denialism-is-part-of-something-much-larger/]epistemological cocoon[/link] around itself within which loopy misinformation spreads unchecked. It has, in short, gone [link=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/15/opinion/15krugman.html]loony[/link].
 

 
 
 
 

[clickpenguin_460]

Hmm. I’ll have to look into that. Seems like a hard thing to do since someone has to assign a score to things that are constantly changing. For example, gay marriage went from left to liberal to center really fast.

[katiemckee84_223]

^ Exactly, a madman today could be considered a centrist today because of the overton windown and decades of propaganda.
 
But, truth or objectivity never existed for the left, so of course the lies continue.

[btomba_77]

Looking to exploit the growing gender gap …
 
[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513361-lincoln-project-announces-coalition-of-republican-women-against-trump]Lincoln Project announces coalition of Republican women against Trump[/link]
 

A group of Republican women will lead a coalition formed by the anti-Trump GOP group The Lincoln Project in encouraging female voters to oust the president on Election Day.
 
Women will decide the outcome of this election. The coalition is dedicated to uniting all women who recognize the threat this President poses to the future of our Republic and turning them out to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, Jennifer Horn, co-founder of The Lincoln Project and a member of the coalition, said in a statement. The future of our families, our communities and our country lie in our hands.
Horn will join Republican strategist Susan Del Percio and former Hawaii state House Minority Leader Beth Fukumoto, fellow coalition members, for a virtual town hall Wednesday that will be live streamed on social media platforms. Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin is slated to participate in the event.
The past four years have been exhausting for women, Del Percio said in a statement. We are fearful for the health and safety of our families, we are tired of constant lies and bullying from the Oval Office, and we are frustrated with trying to make decisions for the wellbeing of our families without accurate information. It is time to bring humanity, empathy, leadership, dignity, and respect back to the White House and I am proud to join this group of strong women in that fight.
Trump has seen his support among suburban women deteriorate over the past several years, with polls showing a major shift away from the president.
[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]White Working Class Continues to move to the GOP[/h1]  
[link=https://www.axios.com/election-biden-trump-demographics-639b6c8e-6e5c-43c8-962f-dca6a127c4ef.html]Axios[/link]:

[b]Blue areas got even bluer[/b], while rural areas dug in for Trump.
[ul][*]Georgia’s shift to the left came on the back of Atlanta and its suburbs Biden’s margin over Trump in populous Cobb and Gwinnett counties was 12 points higher than Clinton’s in 2016.[*]Biden also dominated across New England, even in areas that have traditionally been GOP-friendly. [link=https://twitter.com/kenghazi/status/1325620694630232064?s=21]Mitt Romney carried Darien, Conn.[/link] in 2012 by 31 points, Clinton carried it by 12 points in 2016, and Biden carried it by 23 points this year.[*]The other side: Rural areas still turned out strong for Trump. [/ul] [b] The white working class vote in the Midwest[/b] did not deliver victory for Biden, even though that was one of his key selling points in the Democratic primary.
[ul][*]While he did make gains in central Pennsylvania and western Michigan, he was walloped outside of the big cities in Ohio and Iowa compared to Clinton’s performance in 2016.[*]Biden made efforts to win over some of the white, non-college educated voters who propelled Trump to victory in 2016, but “he didn’t deliver as much as he wanted to,” Brookings Institution demographer William Frey told Axios. “The exit polls actually do show him doing a little worse.” [/ul]  

Darien, Connecticut (10th richest place in the US with $352k average household income) presidential election results

2012: Romney +31% (64/33)
2016: Clinton +12% (53/41)
2020: Biden +23% (61/38)

— Kenton (@Kenghazi) November 9, 2020

[clickpenguin_460]

The difference between urban and rural life, values, and relevant laws and regulations is stark.  Not surprising that this will continue to be so and worsen.  Would behoove state governments to formulate laws for their urban centers that are distinct from outside of them – or just have the cities regulate their own stuff.  “Non-chicago” IL gets destroyed with taxes and regulations designed for the urban center, for example.  Making these distinctions would alleviate a lot of the rural/suburban hatred toward the urban centers.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Such as? What state taxes are bankrupting rural areas that they receive no benefit from because it all goes to urban needs?

[clickpenguin_460]

Property taxes in IL.

[jennycullmann]

Frumi, another great example of people who don’t know what they don’t know.
 
And it’s a LOT.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Quote from Cubsfan10

Property taxes in IL.

Property taxes are local taxes. And the way virtually every county in the country levies taxes.

[clickpenguin_460]

“The state of Illinois has the second highest property taxes in the country. The statewide average effective tax rate is [b]2.31%[/b], nearly double the national average. The typical homeowner in Illinois pays $4,157 annually in property taxes.”
 
[link=https://smartasset.com/taxes/illinois-property-tax-calculator]https://smartasset.com/ta…roperty-tax-calculator[/link]
 
I understand that but they are like that because the corrupt Chicago government spends so much money the downstate counties have nothing but debt to pay off.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Who cares? How does that reflect on Chicago and urban centers about anything you are complaining about? Assessing taxes on property has always been a hyperlocal issue, not a state issue. Don’t you know that?
 
Illinois  [b]Tax rate: [/b]2.3%
[b]Median home value:[/b] $173,800
[b]Median tax paid:[/b] $3,995
 
Texas [b]Tax rate: [/b]1.9%
[b]Median home value: [/b]$136,000
[b]Median tax paid:[/b] $2,578
 
Washington, D.C. [b]Tax rate:[/b] 0.56%
[b]Median home value:[/b] $475,800
[b]Median tax paid:[/b] $2,665
 
New Hampshire [b]Tax rate: [/b]2.15%
[b]Median home value:[/b] $237,300
[b]Median tax paid:[/b] $5,100
 
Nebraska [b]Tax rate:[/b] 1.85%
[b]Median home value:[/b] $133,200
[b]Median tax paid:[/b] $2,467
 
 

[clickpenguin_460]

Because they are only high because of Chicago costing the state so much money.  Things affect each other. 

[kayla.meyer_144]

That is silly. How is Chicago dictating the property tax assessment for the rural area properties?

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from Frumious

That is silly. How is Chicago dictating the property tax assessment for the rural area properties?

 
Cause and effect. 
 
Corrupt Chicago politicians run the state government > promise high pensions, spend tons of tax money > need more money > increased property taxes throughout the state. The reason this is the case is because the state has no money to help local governments downstate (pay less share of education than almost every other state) and the pension funds are tied to it too and IL owes a TON of pension money that Dems gave out to unions over the years.
 
I was just using one example but the same cause (corrupt terrible Chicago government) leads to many bad effects on downstate IL. 
 
 
 
 

[tdetlie_105]

Quote from Cubsfan10

“The state of Illinois has the second highest property taxes in the country. The statewide average effective tax rate is [b]2.31%[/b], nearly double the national average. The typical homeowner in Illinois pays $4,157 annually in property taxes.”

[link=https://smartasset.com/taxes/illinois-property-tax-calculator]https://smartasset.com/ta…roperty-tax-calculator[/link]

I understand that but they are like that because the corrupt Chicago government spends so much money the downstate counties have nothing but debt to pay off.

 
Interesting topic.  I’ve always wondered why NJ has such absurd property taxes.  Anecdotally was told by locals that a lot of this has to do with covering public services in Newark but who knows.  Quick google search stated it has to do with high cost of education which is ironic bc many of the highest taxed areas do not have the best public schools.  

[kayla.meyer_144]

Quote from Cubsfan10

That’s pretty crazy.  Republicans are totally changed due to Trump and 2016.

I think this “realignment” will lead to more disillusioned independents/moderates as I consider myself to be (former Repub.).  It’s a shame the Dems abandoned the “Blue dog” constituency.

As can be seen, the extremist partisanship went up in 2016; it was not a long term development, only in the past 3-4 years.
 
The Blue Dogs left the Democratic Party & became Republicans, not the other way around as you describe it.

[Unknown Member]

So much time dedicated to this election. So much brain used. So much emotional roller coaster

imagine the devastation if Trump wins.

how does the outcome even affect you? Think deep

[kaldridgewv2211]

Quote from dergon

Teagan Goddard:

[b] [link=https://politicalwire.com/2020/07/15/the-parties-are-realigning/]The Parties Are Realigning[/link]   [/b]

[b] [/b]
The latest quarterly [link=https://mehlmancastagnetti.com/wp-content/uploads/Great-Acceleration-Mehlman-Q3-2020.pdf]slide deck[/link] from lobbyist Bruce Mehlman highlights the extraordinary political realignment taking place in the country.
Heres one slide that caught my eye:

[image]https://1lme911nv0cg3ned26127983-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/parties-are-realigning-e1594822830181.png[/image]

Mehlman sees the 2016 presidential election as a turning point in a broader political realignment, with college-educated suburbanites shifting towards the Democrats and working-class whites shifting towards the Republicans.

He also notes the record level of racial and gender polarization in the electorate. Women now overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates, while Republicans have become an even whiter party in the Trump era.

These trends have only accelerated throughout Trumps presidency.

A decade ago, the most reliable predictor of a voters partisan leanings was whether they went to church each week. Today, education level is an even better predictor of which party they support.

As the electorate continues to split on race, gender and education, expect even the culture wars to ramp up in the coming years.

I’m not sure the demographic on the gap in college degrees matters that much anymore.  You can do other things besides college and get a skilled job like programming, networking etc….  All that without having to take a creative writing class.

[suman]

Here’s a relevant chart to this:
 
[link=https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World-iq-map-lynn-2006.svg]https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World-iq-map-lynn-2006.svg[/link]
 
Many feel uncomfortable discussing this issue, but it’s critical to be mindful of the facts. Immigration must be based on merit if the country were to prosper in the future.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/526608-the-memo-democrats-see-warning-signs-beyond-2020]The Memo: Democrats see warning signs beyond 2020[/link][/h1] Two in particular come up over and over again: A weaker than expected performance among Latino voters this year, and continued GOP strength among white voters who don’t have a college education.

The schism in the electorate around education is troublesome to Democrats such as David Shor, a data expert who handled the internal election-forecasting models for the 2012 Obama campaign.

Biden won white college-educated voters overall by 3 points, according to exit polls, whereas Clinton lost them by 3 points in 2016.
 
But Biden only barely moved the needle on the yawning gap that Democrats suffer with white working-class voters. He lost whites without a college degree by 35 points this year, just a fraction better than Clintons 37-point deficit in 2016.

Trump surprised some analysts back in 2016 by securing 28 percent of the votes cast by Latinos a figure slightly better than 2012 GOP nominee [link=https://thehill.com/people/willard-mitt-romney]Mitt Romney[/link]  despite his hard-line rhetoric on immigration. Trump nudged that number up further this year to 32 percent.

[clickpenguin_460]

There’s another article out there that’s “interview-style” with Schor and he goes into detail on a lot of those topics.  Then at the very end, he admits that he’s a socialist (an actual one).  I found it interesting that he was able to be honest about the outlook of things.
 
There are several big takeaways I think
1. Politics/political parties are the new religions for people.  They hold immutable beliefs in several ideals on both sides and ascribe values to the “other side” without even knowing them/meeting them.  They are willing to fight to the death for the ideals (in modern terms at least)
2.  Hispanics are diverse and can’t be pandered to.  They also marry with whites and most of their children identify as “white.” The demographic changes are moving as rapidly as previously thought and those who identify as white will likely be in the majority longer than the previous belief.
3. It’s all about class and education right now as we talked about.  Better still, the “mood” of the nation is “elite vs. deplorable.”  It doesn’t fit everyone but that’s the theme.
 
 
And one big question.  Can Trumpism move forward without Trump?  If Republicans find people who can continue the Trump messages (reduced foreign intervention, tough on China, low taxes, America First, etc.) but don’t have his personal downfalls, they will be tough to beat.  The Democrats don’t have a national platform of ideals right now.

[kaldridgewv2211]

I don’t understand the Latino vote.  They’re voting for the very people that want to kick them the fudge out of the country.  It’s like sure the GOP person might be pro-life and that’s one of your values but it ain’t gonna make a difference when Trump sends you back to Mexico.

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

I don’t understand the Latino vote.  They’re voting for the very people that want to kick them the fudge out of the country.  It’s like sure the GOP person might be pro-life and that’s one of your values but it ain’t gonna make a difference when Trump sends you back to Mexico.

 
Because they understand the difference between legal and illegal.  Legal hispanic citizens are the ones allowed to vote.  They aren’t going to be sent anywhere.

[kaldridgewv2211]

I’m not saying anything about legal or illegal.  If the Trump admin had it’s way Steven Miller would load these people up like cargo and deport them.  

[clickpenguin_460]

You think Trump and Republicans want to deport legal Hispanic US citizens?
 
I get why you don’t understand the Hispanic vote if you truly think that.

[kaldridgewv2211]

I didn’t say republicans.  I’m a republican, I don’t think TRump or any of his toadies are.  They’re Trumplicans.  
 
Also soon enough we won’t have to worry about this disaster of an administration.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Prejudice isn’t interested in facts, just looking Hispanic definitely places you into a suspicious category with you having the responsibility of proving you are not illegal. Over and over.
 
My Hispanic friends and in-laws do not see the authorities as making simple mistakes. Some have wondered if they are in those Socialist police state paradises their parents left.

[clickpenguin_460]

lol Frumi you never cease to amaze me.

[btomba_77]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

I don’t understand the Latino vote.  They’re voting for the very people that want to kick them the fudge out of the country.  It’s like sure the GOP person might be pro-life and that’s one of your values but it ain’t gonna make a difference when Trump sends you back to Mexico.

There are a lot of complexities here.   Mrs_dergon and I are in Miami-Dade as I type this and there is huge local discussion about the election.
 
South FL specific: Lots of Cuban and Venezuelans for whom the specter of “socialism” is a very strong motivator.   
 
Also talk about Spanish language target misinformation campaigns ant their potential effects.
 
 
For the Latino vote more broadly, there are people that, particularly for non-college Latino men, there is a cultural “macho” appeal of Trump as a tough guy.  … most of his Latino gains were in this category.  (Same for non-college African American men too)
 
 
___
 
And for multi-generational Latinos the power of immigration rhetoric fades as they get further from the immigrant experience and their political ID looks more like the US electorate more broadly.
 
 
 
 

[clickpenguin_460]

Your last sentence is key.  As I said before, they also understand the difference between legal and illegal immigration.
 
Also, who doesn’t want to be the Alpha man?  It’s evolution.  You either follow it/are inspired by it/are it or you rebel against it beta-male style. You can argue the merits of it but it’s clearly ingrained in our DNA.

[Unknown Member]

Im half Puerto Rican

In my experience the Latino vote is very unique and different amongs the nationality

Puerto Ricans are actually very much like urban America. Mostly democrats and the more educated the more likely democratic

Cubans are strongly republicans as are Venezuelans

The other groups really are similar to voters in the areas they live

[Unknown Member]

Side note

Cubans are not necessarily anti socialist

They just have for generations felt as a cults they are superior to other Latinos

During colonial years they were then prized Spanish colony

They culturally always have felt superior to other Latinos

Historically they viewed republicans as being upper class as well so they drifted towards the republicans

My opinion as one of half Spanish decent

[kayla.meyer_144]

Quote from dergon

 
There are a lot of complexities here.   

South FL specific: Lots of Cuban and Venezuelans for whom the specter of “socialism” is a very strong motivator.   

  
Yes there are a lot of complexities. The Hispanic immigrants also come from Central and South American countries who have NOT had communism dictatorships, many are from other Central and South American countries who have had very evil right-wing dictatorships. These are the majority countries, many more than Cuba and Venezuela. For decades we supported murderous dictatorships of the right, and their “death squads.”
 
Cuba and Venezuela get all of the press today, especially on US media promoting misinformation.

Quote from dergon

For the Latino vote more broadly, there are people that, particularly for non-college Latino men, there is a cultural “macho” appeal of Trump as a tough guy.  … most of his Latino gains were in this category.  (Same for non-college African American men too) 

 
My daughter-in-law definitely believes this, the macho-man who isn’t right and maybe even violent but never apologizes and firmly believes what he believes no matter the reality. A cultural thing? A “socialist” dictator is a very bad thing but a right-wing dictator is not bad. American Cubans tend very strongly to be of the Cuban upper and middle class who supported the status quo pre-Castro and also have tended to look down upon Hispanics like Puerto Ricans.

Quote from dergon

And for multi-generational Latinos the power of immigration rhetoric fades as they get further from the immigrant experience and their political ID looks more like the US electorate more broadly. 

 
Mostly true for all immigrants. 
 
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/politics/latino-voters-democrats.html]A Vexing Question for Democrats: What Drives Latino Men to Republicans?

[/link]

For decades, Democratic candidates worked with the assumption that if Latinos voted in higher numbers, the party was more likely to win. But interviews with dozens of Hispanic men from across the country who voted Republican last year showed deep frustration with such presumptions, and rejected the idea that Latino men would instinctively support liberal candidates. These men challenged the notion that they were part of a minority ethnic group or demographic reliant on Democrats; many of them grew up in areas where Hispanics are the majority and are represented in government. And they said many Democrats did not understand how much Latino men identified with being a provider earning enough money to support their families is central to the way they view both themselves and the political world.

Like any voter, these men are also driven by their opinions on a variety of issues: Many mention their anti-abortion views, support for gun rights and strict immigration policies. They have watched their friends and relatives go to western Texas to work the oil fields, and worry that new environmental regulations will wipe out the industry there. Still, most say their favorable view of Republicans stems from economic concerns, a desire for low taxes and few regulations. They say they want to support the party they believe will allow them to work and become wealthy.

 {R}esearchers believe that Mexican-American men under the age of 50 are perhaps the demographic that should most concern Democrats, because they are more likely to drift toward conservative candidates. According to a precinct-level analysis by OpenLabs, a liberal research group, Hispanic support for Democrats dropped by as much as 9 percent in last years election, and far more in parts of Florida and South Texas.
 
Winning over Latino men is in some ways a decades-old challenge for Democrats a nagging reminder that the party has never had a forceful grip on this demographic. Still, some strategists on the left are increasingly alarmed that the party is not doing enough to reach men whose top priorities are based on economics, rather than racial justice or equality. And they warn that Hispanic men are likely to provide crucial swing votes in future races for control of Congress in the midterm elections, as well as who governs from the White House.

[/QUOTE]
 

[clickpenguin_460]

Economics for sure.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2021/03/22/latino-men-trump-2020/]Eric Garcia[/link]:

[h1]Trump, My Dad and the Rightward Shift of Latino Men[/h1] Why are Latino men moving away from Democrats? And how can liberals win them back? For me, its a topic that hits close to home.

To many progressives, the trend was a shock how could a president who so brazenly denigrated Latinos and immigrants actually increase his stock among those same voters? but it was also a wake-up call. For a generation, Democrats have taken comfort in the assumption that long-term demographics were on their side: As America became less and less White, Democrats would enjoy an increasing advantage in national politics. The growing Latino vote was a maybe [i]the[/i]  linchpin of this thinking. Which means that if, in fact, Latinos are drifting from Democrats, it constitutes an emergency for the party, one that could haunt them in 2022, 2024 and beyond.

…

There isnt, of course, one clear explanation for why Latino men seem to be drifting, as a group, to the right. Every individual vote is a sum of many factors, and its tough to attach a simple explanation to any of them. Indeed, when I asked my dad about what he liked about Trump, he replied, Oh my God, son, the list is endless. As he walked around his neighborhood in January 10 days after Biden was inaugurated and spoke to me on the phone, he rattled off a litany of what he saw as Trumps accomplishments: lower taxes, diplomatic agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors, the low Black and Latino unemployment rates before covid-19 wrecked the economy. He praised Trumps tough stance on China and his move to subsidize farmers to [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/trump-farmers-subsidies.html]offset the effects[/link] of his trade conflict.
 
None of these policy preferences are unique to Latinos or to Latino men. But when a group shifts dramatically, its impossible not to at least guess at broad explanations. And for Democrats, theres a lot riding on trying to get these explanations right. Perhaps the most important thing to realize is that no party is entitled to a constituency. Every campaign has to work to actively court Latino voters. Instead of expecting as many progressives do Latino men to automatically vote against someone who works against their self-interest, it might be better to ask what Latino men actually see as their best interests and how they view themselves and then adjust accordingly.

[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20537484-equis_post-mortem_part_one__public_deck_]https://www.documentcloud…part_one__public_deck_[/link]

new analysis looking at the Latino vote in 2020 and GOP gains. A few key takaways:

1) The Latino vote may be much more “swingy” than previously thought.
2) The Latino vote is up fro grabs through turnout and persuasion efforts

… and or me the most interesting

3) Trump may have improved his turnout *not* because of machismo or some of the other speculated reasons, but because the pandemic caused him and the GOP to [b]stop[/b] talking about immigration in the lead up to the election. Removing immigration as a threshold issue to the Republican party made Latinos more open to other GOP messaging.

That third point interesting for what future races, with or without Trump, could look like.

[btomba_77]

update Q1 2021

[link=https://news.gallup.com/poll/343976/quarterly-gap-party-affiliation-largest-2012.aspx]https://news.gallup.com/p…tion-largest-2012.aspx[/link]

[h1]Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012[/h1]
[img]https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/lguvdfwk-e20sl5ey7byqq.png[/img]

 In Gallup polling throughout the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of U.S. adults identified with the Democratic Party or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. That compares with 40% who identified as Republicans or Republican leaners. The nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between four and six percentage points.

[h3][b]Independent Identification Back Up; GOP Identification Down[/b][/h3]

The 44% of Americans who identify as political independents, whether they subsequently express a party leaning or not, is up from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and is above 40% for the first time since 2019. This is consistent with the historical pattern whereby independent identification typically [link=https://news.gallup.com/poll/201638/independent-political-lowest-six-years.aspx]declines in presidential election years[/link] and increases in odd-numbered years.

[/QUOTE]

[img]https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/bbc-k5onqe6g-al6vtvcqg.png[/img]

[h3][b]Bottom Line[/b][/h3] The GOP is facing its smallest share of Republican identifiers since 2018 and its largest deficit to Democrats on party identification and leaning in nearly nine years.
 
The GOP’s hopes of regaining control of the House and Senate it lost in the past two federal election cycles may also depend on how well the party appeals to independent voters, the largest bloc in the U.S., something the Republican Party struggled to do during the [link=https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx]Trump administration[/link].
 

[btomba_77]

[b]YouTube Gave Republicans Edge with Latinos[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://www.axios.com/republicans-youtube-latino-voters-democrats-trump-8119b29f-3d9b-4fb9-87d3-200536f531fb.html]Axios[/link]: Republicans and conservative groups made inroads via YouTube in 2020 with low-information Latino voters often ignored by Democrats, a deep new analysis of U.S. voters shows.
 
The research found that 64% of registered Latino voters and 74% of Hispanic voters in Florida got election information from YouTube.
Republicans, organically and through official campaigns, created quick, shareable YouTube bilingual videos that appeared as newscasts, to attack Joe Biden and promote Trumps economic plans. Democrats did not match the intensity.

 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-faces-massive-realignment-it-sheds-college-educated-voters-n1264425]GOP sheds college-educated voters[/link]
NBC News 

[img]https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2021_15/3465711/microsoftteams-image_3_c71e60340feec130319df354a407ed30.fit-560w.png[/img]

[img]https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2021_15/3465723/microsoftteams-image_8_53c5e9ea91f2c777d3d1833fc48a2f96.fit-560w.png[/img]
[img]https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2021_15/3465708/microsoftteams-image_2_2f48201267b79fa9ff313d4453ac3d1e.fit-560w.png[/img]

{There is} 
 good evidence for Republicans’ “we’ve seen this before” argument. And further bolstering their point of view is the fact those numbers bounced back, of course. Republicans held the affiliation edge in the mid-1990s, the early ’00s and the two parties were basically even in early 2020.
 
But another trend in politics suggests that what we are seeing might be more than a somewhat typical election-related bump for Democrats. Data from the Pew Research Center show that, increasingly, different people are populating the two major political parties with Republicans and Democrats moving in sharply different directions among college-educated voters.
 
… the drop in GOP party ID coupled with the Republican’s loss of college-educated voters could spell trouble for the party in coming elections. It’s not just how many people are calling themselves Republicans in early 2021 that looks like a potential problem for the party, it is which voters are identifying with the GOP.

[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1387788234277654530]https://twitter.com/Nate_…us/1387788234277654530[/link]
 
Nate Cohn:

New census data on 2020 turnout is out:

White, non-Hispanic share of the electorate drops to 71 percent from 73.3 in 2016
Black share of the electorate drops slightly, from 12.4 to 12.3 percent
Hispanic share increases to 10.6 from 9.2 percent

Demographic change was the main driver of the shift. The turnout rate among non-Hispanic white voters increased by 5.6 points, slightly above the 5.4 point national average Black turnout rate increased by just 3.2 points Hispanic turnout rate increased by 6.1 points

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Future State level Democrat Gains Highest for Dems In Texas & North Carolina, Not so much in Florida[/b][/h1]  
An analysis done by Voto Latino, and [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/power-up-texas-north-carolina-next-play-latino-voter-outreach-groups/]provided to the Washington Post[/link], showed that during the 2020 election, the group collected 617,714 complete voter registration applications a 123% percent increase over their projected goal for the cycle.
 
Said María Teresa Kumar, CEO of Voto Latino: The younger Latinx was a larger share of the overall Latino electorate, the state swung for Biden: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. If this trend holds true: Texas and North Carolina will be next in play as younger Latinos eclipse older generations.
 
She added: Florida, where the Latino vote share is older, will be harder to flip.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

The latino vote seems to heavily favor the anti-abortion side.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-really-dislike-biden-but-its-not-just-about-him/]Republicans Really, Really Dislike Biden. But Its Not Just About Him.

[/link]

Members from the other party were once more willing to give a new president some benefit of the doubt early on or at least, their opposition was not quite so baked in, as the figures for both Bush and Barack Obama suggest. Whats more, there hasnt been a corresponding change in how strongly the presidents own party feels about him. Members of the presidents party overwhelmingly support him, but there hasnt been an uptick in those who say they strongly approve of him.

This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-hatred-negative-partisanship-came-to-dominate-american-politics/]Increased disdain and hatred of ones political opponents[/link], known as negative partisanship. As the chart below shows, opinions about the other party have become far more unfavorable since the late 1970s. In other words, its not that surprising that Americans are far less likely to approve of and more likely to intensely dislike presidents from the other party right from the moment they take office.

…

Looking ahead, such deep dislike will likely keep Republicans opposed to Biden regardless of his administrations actions. It also means that like Trump, Biden will likely have to [link=https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx]rely on his own partys support[/link] to buoy his overall numbers. So far, Biden has managed to pull that off with approval from around 90 percent of Democrats, but fierce Republican opposition might mean that his overall approval rating moves only by small degrees, [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-economy-still-the-most-important-thing-for-trumps-reelection/]like Trumps[/link], making it hard for him to crack the mid-50s overall. 

[/QUOTE]

[img]https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/drutman.NEGATIVE-PARTISANSHIP.0915.png?w=700[/img]

[btomba_77]

From the polarization files:
 
[h1][b]GOP Disapproval of Nations Moral Values at Record High[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://news.gallup.com/poll/351140/stable-moral-ratings-obscure-big-partisan-shifts.aspx?utm_source=tagrss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication]Gallup[/link]: 
[ul][*]Record-high 66% of Republicans now rate moral values as “poor”[*]Record-high 46% of Democrats say moral values are improving [/ul]
Similarly, the 92% of Republicans now saying moral values are getting worse is the highest Gallup has recorded, well above the average 81% since 2002 and edging out the 90% recorded in 2007. Republicans’ negative views on both questions had dipped in early May 2020, near the start of the pandemic, although the reason isn’t clear.
This stability, however, masks significant changes in Democrats and Republicans perceptions of U.S. values between 2020 and 2021. Democrats are much less negative about moral values today than they were a year ago. Conversely, Republicans views of U.S. moral values have sunk to record lows.

[img]https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/xoo0bd3vtuan4rv1ub3q4g.png[/img]

[img]https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/v-dsnvp8-eg2jhhw4jx-6w.png[/img]

[img]https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/afrcc-ms3uoumvoedm6_-g.png[/img]
 

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]GOP Loses Foothold In Big Cities[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/us/politics/republicans-cities-elections-new-york.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage]New York Times[/link]: The realignment of national politics around urban-versus-rural divisions has seemingly doomed Republicans in these areas as surely as it has all but eradicated the Democratic Party as a force across the Plains and the Upper Mountain West. At the national level, Republicans have largely accepted that trade-off as advantageous, since the structure of the federal government gives disproportionate power to sparsely populated rural states.
 
But the partys growing irrelevance in urban and suburban areas also comes at a considerable cost, denying conservatives influence over the policies that govern much of the population and sidelining them in some of the countrys centers of innovation and economic might. The trend has helped turn formerly red states, like Georgia and Arizona, into purple battlegrounds as their largest cities and suburbs have grown larger and more ethnically mixed.
 

[btomba_77]

[b]Lessons from New York Citys 2021 Primary[/b][/h1]  
 
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/briefing/new-york-mayors-race-ranked-choice-democrats.html]David Leonhardt[/link]: Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters are to the right of white Democrats on many issues. Many voters of color are skeptical of immigration and free trade. They favor border security, as well as some abortion restrictions. They are worried about crime and oppose cuts to police funding. They are religious.
 
One way to make sense of these patterns is to focus on social class. Many professionals, with college degrees and above-average incomes, have political views that skew either strongly right or strongly left, largely lining up with one of the two parties agendas. Many working-class voters have mixed views.
 
If there were any doubt about that, the 2020 election when voters of color shifted right should have cleared it up. And last weeks New York mayoral election has become the latest piece of evidence.

 

[satyanar]

Sounds like I am lining up with voters of color and the working class. “Mixed views’. I like the sound of that.

[btomba_77]

[b]The Southification of Rural America[/b][/h1]  
 
[link=https://modelcitizen.substack.com/p/the-density-divide-and-the-southernification]Will Wilkinson[/link]: I suspect that battle between North and South lives on both culturally and geographically. The North has drifted out of the countryside and concentrated itself into our cities. At the same time, Americas rural and exurban counties have slowly become more and more homogeneously Southern.
 
The South has risen againin rural Maine?
 
My hunch is that rural white culture, which was once regionally varied and distinctive, became more uniform by becoming increasingly Southern.

 

[satyanar]

Yes we are certainly seeing that in Oregon. At least I did on a recent visit.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-31/to-understand-politics-watch-the-fringes]To Understand Politics, Watch the Fringes[/link]
Jonathan Bernstein

[b]Lawmakers on the Democratic fringe are ideological outliers but not radicals; those on the Republican fringe are radical, but not necessarily policy outliers. 

[/b]

 
Unfortunately, there are a lot more Cawthorns than Kinzingers in the House Republican caucus. But thats not a question of ideology (as liberals who like Kinzinger found out when he expressed hawkish views on Afghanistan over the past two weeks). There is, of course, nothing ideological about falsely calling an election fraudulent. Nor is there much in the way of policy content involved, unless you consider Republicans should always win elections to be policy. But the language Cawthorn uses is the language of radicalism the demand that something must change, and must change now, or else the results will be apocalyptic. 

As for the Democrats? Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley and three others [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-30/progressives-urge-biden-not-to-nominate-powell-as-fed-chair?sref=rMMJuv3g]made news[/link] by coming out against the renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Why? Because, they wrote, We urge President Biden to re-imagine a Federal Reserve focused on eliminating climate risk and advancing racial and economic justice. 

Members of the House, of course, have no vote in confirming presidential nominations. Nor is it likely that more than a handful of lawmakers agree that addressing climate risk and racial justice rather than economic growth, jobs and stable prices should be the main task of the Fed. That is: These are policy outliers; if you want to call them extremists, Im not sure that theyd disagree. But theyre trying to move policy in their direction. In this case, the fact that theyre in a tiny minority and that theyre in the House, not the Senate, means that a little public performance is actually a fairly pragmatic approach. The radical move here might be to hold the infrastructure bills hostage, or to threaten to shut down the government, or even to refuse to vote to increase the debt limit, unless they got their way. Instead, [b]the most liberal Democrats are issuing a press release in a situation where they dont have leverage. In other words, theyre using the opportunity for a little advocacy (and, to be sure, self-promotion). But watch them: When they do have leverage, they use it to bargain for somewhat better (in their view) legislation. With rare exceptions, they are pragmatists, not radicals. [/b]

All political parties have fringes. But the difference between the Democratic and Republican fringes is important, and it tells us a lot about the difference between the parties right now. 

[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]Democrats Sweat Latino Turnout[/h1]  
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/democrats-latino-turnout-california-recall-508012]Politico[/link]: With two weeks of early voting left before the California recall election, Democrats are tracking a worrisome sign for Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party at large the governors relative weakness with Latinos.
 
If the trend holds, with even a small segment of the Latino electorate embracing the GOP, it may spell disaster for the Democratic Party and not just in California this year. The party in power typically suffers losses in midterm elections, and Democrats will need a robust Latino turnout in 2022 to protect its narrow majorities in Congress.
 
In an ominous sign, Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Gov. Terry McAuliffe is running far behind Bidens numbers with Hispanic voters this year in Virginia.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]”Socialism” Attacks Hurt Democrats With Latino Voters[/b][/h1] [b]
[/b]
A [link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.squarespace.com%2Fstatic%2F5d30982b599bde00016db472%2Ft%2F61b7e8e75c74f5558036268b%2F1639442667560%2FPost-Mortem%2BPart%2BTwo%2BFINAL%2BDec%2B13.pdf]new post-mortem[/link] on the 2020 election results reveals that GOP attacks claiming Democrats embrace socialism helped fuel Donald Trumps gains with Latino voters last year, [link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com%2Fnews%2F2021%2F12%2F14%2Flatino-voters-2020-election-524190]Politico[/link] reports.
 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Nos encantan los servicios gubernamentales, ¡simplemente no lo llames socialismo!

[adrianoal]

Quote from dergon

[h1][b]”Socialism” Attacks Hurt Democrats With Latino Voters[/b][/h1] [b]
[/b]
A [link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.squarespace.com%2Fstatic%2F5d30982b599bde00016db472%2Ft%2F61b7e8e75c74f5558036268b%2F1639442667560%2FPost-Mortem%2BPart%2BTwo%2BFINAL%2BDec%2B13.pdf]new post-mortem[/link] on the 2020 election results reveals that GOP attacks claiming Democrats embrace socialism helped fuel Donald Trumps gains with Latino voters last year, [link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com%2Fnews%2F2021%2F12%2F14%2Flatino-voters-2020-election-524190]Politico[/link] reports.

 
Don’t AOC and Bernie embrace socialism openly?
 
Regardless, seems pretty clear there’s a big gap on many issues between the Latino community and the progressive woke wing of the Democratic Party (for one example, see large # of articles authored by Latinos saying “no one I know uses Latinx”).  Both parties are somewhat tenuous coalitions at this point. Instead of having multiple parties and then forming a coalition after the election we have 2 which are each fragile coalitions. Not sure which way is better.

[btomba_77]

“Don’t AOC and Bernie embrace socialism openly?”
 
Well.. that’s part of the problem…. the lack of understanding of the general population, apparently including Latino voters, between “socialism” and “democratic socialism.”
 
“Democratic socialism” isn’t socialism in the polisci sense.  It is a form of capitalism in which the government plays a larger role in the social safety and regulation … but it is still fundamentally capitalist.
 
 
Many people hear the word though and don’t understand that definition. And the Republicans have been effective at making it even muddier.
 
A cuban or latin american/central american immigrant who hears the word “socialism” isn’t going to conjure an image of Denmark or Sweden, which is what the Bernie’s and AOC’s of the world mean.
 
 
If Democrats were as effective at messaging as Republicans, “Democratic Socialism” would have already been somehow rebranded “The Freedom Government”  (like “right to work” etc) or something similar.

[Unknown Member]

Not all Latinos

It hurts with Cubans mainly

Look at florida more Cubans

Las Vegas Arizona and New Mexico went democratic because largely other ethnic Latinos

[kayla.meyer_144]

It’s a dog whistle code-word. To Republicans it means “free stuff” for other people, not themselves of course.
 
There are very few Republicans who could provide examples of Socialism for real and as faithful FOX viewers are likely to describe Nazis as Socialists. Why??? Because it’s in their name, [i]der [/i][i]Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei[/i], the National Socialist German Workers Party.
 
Nothing else needs be known.
 
The fear-mongering is very effective for Hispanics who come from Cuba and hear about Cuba and Venezuela even while they love all the government services that helped their settlement in the US.

[kayla.meyer_144]

Quote from dergon

Well.. that’s part of the problem…. the lack of understanding of the general population, apparently including Latino voters, between “socialism” and “democratic socialism.”

Many people hear the word though and don’t understand that definition. And the Republicans have been effective at making it even muddier.

A cuban or latin american/central american immigrant who hears the word “socialism” isn’t going to conjure an image of Denmark or Sweden, which is what the Bernie’s and AOC’s of the world mean.

And I will add that very few Republicans could explain the difference as they see no difference. As Trump said, Norwegians are welcome into America. But only because they are blond and blue-eyed, not the “socialism.”

[kayla.meyer_144]

And let’s not forget the tax policies in Democratic Socialist countries where Republicans believe everyone pays 90% of their wages while getting “free stuff” from the government.
 
Don’t ask them to explain. They can’t wrap their heads around their beliefs either it just sounds right.
 
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

Thats certainly a trade off. Higher taxes for more government programs. Personally I think the government could be better at spending for a start. Taxes can go through a redo.

[adrianoal]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

Thats certainly a trade off. Higher taxes for more government programs. Personally I think the government could be better at spending for a start. Taxes can go through a redo.

 
As I think I mentioned previously, the Economist had a very good article about this a few weeks ago arguing that basically US is going to need a VAT to pay for the social programs we want. Republicans can stall them, but they’re coming, and we’ll need a way to pay for them. We already tax the rich at ~Euro levels. Capital too. We are going to have to broaden the tax base.
 
I found it pretty convincing.

[kaldridgewv2211]

Cant people like Bezos borrow money against their stock value at zero tax. Make a heckn nice living that way.

[adrianoal]

Quote from dergon

“Don’t AOC and Bernie embrace socialism openly?”

Well.. that’s part of the problem…. the lack of understanding of the general population, apparently including Latino voters, between “socialism” and “democratic socialism.”

“Democratic socialism” isn’t socialism in the polisci sense.  It is a form of capitalism in which the government plays a larger role in the social safety and regulation … but it is still fundamentally capitalist.

Many people hear the word though and don’t understand that definition. And the Republicans have been effective at making it even muddier.

A cuban or latin american/central american immigrant who hears the word “socialism” isn’t going to conjure an image of Denmark or Sweden, which is what the Bernie’s and AOC’s of the world mean.

If Democrats were as effective at messaging as Republicans, “Democratic Socialism” would have already been somehow rebranded “The Freedom Government”  (like “right to work” etc) or something similar.

 
Ok, seems like a case of terrible marketing then. Why use a word with so much baggage? 
 
It’s funny, even Republicans acknowledge that if we get the safety net policies in BBB they’ll be very popular and won’t go away. Yet we’re struggling to get them, and there’s no political will to say how to pay for them.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-latinos-really-moved-toward-the-republican-party/?ex_cid=538twitter]https://fivethirtyeight.c…rty/?ex_cid=538twitter[/link]

538:

[h1][b]Have Latinos Really Moved Toward The Republican Party?[/b][/h1]

In the 2020 election, the [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-how-white-and-latino-americans-voted-in-2020/]rightward shift among Latino voters[/link] raised eyebrows. [link=https://catalist.us/wh-national/]Post-election surveys[/link] have disagreed about [link=https://twitter.com/A_agadjanian/status/1385639388818788355?s=20&t=FfUIkI1qjxs8eHqCV2e3fw]the exact split[/link] in [link=https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/]the Latino vote[/link], but it appears around 3 in 5 (or slightly more) voted for President Biden over then-President Donald Trump. Yet many of those same surveys as well as [link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/20/us/politics/election-hispanics-asians-voting.html]precinct-level analysis[/link] of the 2020 vote suggest that, compared with his performance in 2016, Trump made gains among Latinos and [link=https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/south-texas-voters-donald-trump/]in some places[/link], quite [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/21/us/miami-hispanic-voters.html]sizable ones[/link]. Going forward, such swings among Latinos  [link=https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/2020-united-states-population-more-racially-ethnically-diverse-than-2010.html]the largest ethnic or racial minority group in the country[/link]  could affect each partys chance of carrying important states like Arizona, Florida and Texas while also putting Democratic-leaning turf [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-democratic-gains-in-texass-big-metro-areas-could-outweigh-republican-success-in-south-texas/]in play for the GOP[/link].
 
 
Yet for all the talk about Republicans making serious inroads with Latino voters, new data from Gallup suggests that Latinos lurch toward the GOP could be overstated, at least when it comes to how they identify with the two major parties. In Gallups survey data for 2021, [link=https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/389093/hispanic-americans-party-updated-analysis.aspx]the pollster found[/link] that 56 percent of Hispanic Americans identified as Democrats or as independents who leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 26 percent identified as Republican or as leaning toward the GOP. Those figures represent very little change from what Gallup found in 2020 and, as the chart below shows, largely fall in line with Hispanic party-identification data over the past decade.

…

{Regarding the 2022 mid-terms}, at this point it seems more likely than not that Latino voters will continue to prefer Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. However, given the 2020 election results, the prominent issues that voters are worried about and Bidens standing with the public, theres plenty of reason to think that Republicans can further trim Democrats lead among Latino voters in 2022 even if Democrats retain a sizable party-ID advantage among all Latinos.
[/QUOTE]
 

Yup that's right re the "both" group being more conservative than just those who identify as Hispanic upfront.

Wonder what kind of factors determine each identification (Hisp for race vs. for Hispanic q) - maybe ancestry/origin, generation, educ? pic.twitter.com/147M9kLwuC

— Alexander Agadjanian (@A_agadjanian) April 23, 2021

[satyanar]

The last paragraph sounds about right.

[btomba_77]

Chart of the day:

[img]https://1lme911nv0cg3ned26127983-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/e039eof-oumx8zewjgj3ag.png[/img]

[kayla.meyer_144]

The chart proves the case that “independents” are perennially dissatisfied with anyone & everyone in office, regardless and regardless of policies. Nothing is ever good enough, with the possible sole exception of 2 years under Dubbya, independents are under 50% right across the board.
 
The Momma Bear, Poppa Bear party, always too hot or too cold, always unhappy and  dissatisfied.
 
 

[satyanar]

Quote from Frumious

The chart proves the case that “independents” are [b]perennially[/b] dissatisfied with anyone & everyone in office, regardless and regardless of policies. Nothing is ever good enough, with the possible sole exception of 2 years under Dubbya, independents are under 50% right across the board.

The Momma Bear, Poppa Bear [b]party,[/b] always too hot or too cold, always unhappy and  dissatisfied.

 
I mean it can’t get any more bizarre the things you come up with. Plus, they aren’t even a party. Not sure why you hate them so much.