-
So much for shiny metals
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/[/link]
How ironic… a gold bubble bursts. Life must not be so good in Billystan today -
151 Replies
-
Beware when he Hucksters like Glen Beck and Limbaugh start pitching something
-
Beware when he Hucksters like Glen Beck and Limbaugh start pitching something
-
Dude in the general forum retirement thread was recommending gold as “no risk” investment …. “going to $3500!”
[link=http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30231.html]http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30231.html[/link]
For years a certain strain of conservative thought has held that there was one sure hedge against economic depression, civil disorder and liberal rule gold. Now that belief has led to a kind of harmonic convergence between ideology and commerce.
Anyone tuning in to conservative talk radio or Fox Newss Bill OReilly and Glenn Beck shows is bombarded by commercials for gold, mainly in the form of collectible coins, with announcers intoning that inflation and deficits caused by big government spending are devaluing the dollar and making gold the best investment money can buy.
The dire tone sounded in the ads often echo the occasionally apocalyptic economic forecasts of the shows hosts, many of whom have endorsement contracts with the gold retailers, appear in their ads, or have had their executives as guests to trash the economic course set by President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, and to preach the attractions of gold.
Theres a natural synergy between conservative talk radio listeners and gold, said Michael Smerconish, a Philadelphia-based [link=http://www.politico.com/click/stories/0910/talk_radio_without_a_shout_.html]conservative-leaning talk show host[/link] who signed a deal to endorse Goldline International, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based retailer when his show entered syndication in January.
When Roosevelt took the country off the gold standard, Kazin said conservatives began embracing gold in a more populist way as something not subject to the whims or the depredations of government or central banks, which are seen by (populists) on the right and the left as involved in conspiracies to help their friends.
As Smerconish put it to POLITICO, Those who are most concerned about government growth are increasingly dubious about the value of a dollar and look at gold as something they can see, feel, touch, appreciate.
Financial analysts, investment advisors and precious metal experts warn that the collectibles market can be among the riskiest ways to invest in gold, and some blame aggressive advertising and the boosterism on conservative shows for helping push nervous investors into bad deals.
I see it here on AM and with my RL firends. Conservative politics and confidence of gold as an investment go hand -in-hand.-
The take home here is “Don’t let your politics influence your portfolio!”
I have one good RL friend who is notoriously overweight gold. he is also a huge Ron Paul supporter. Coincidence? No.
There have been a number ofstudies that show that investors become less confident in the markets when their party is out of power. That effect, imho, has been accentuated by confluence of the Obama adminstration and the Great Recession.
For long term investors political considerations should play little if at all into portfolio decisions. Businesses adapt to the political, economic, and regulatory climate both natinally and globally and find ways to make money. Global markets are surprisingly resilient and accomodate political changes all over quite well. If you have a long term investment horizon, don’t let something like the party and policies of the current executive branch effect your strategy. -
The doomsday sales pitch for gold has never really done much for me. It’s still a hard assett that has some value in dollars. You can have a couple shares of google or an ounce of gold. If it keeps going lower I wouldn’t mind buying some bullion myself or even some silver.
-
thought this was a funny link when I saw it.
[link=http://www.catsforgold.com/]http://www.catsforgold.com/[/link]-
Like I said when the hucksters and the con men and the preachers start pumping something ….run run run away
-
When you can go into nearly any town in the US and find a shop that specializes in buying gold from the gullible for 15-20% of its actual value, you should be able to figure out that it wasn’t going to last forever.
-
The big money is selling gold and going to cash
Wonder what that means?
Correction??????
-
-
Quote from kpack123
Like I said when the hucksters and the con men and the preachers start pumping something ….run run run away
Except sometimes when people are running is the best time to be buying.
-
Thinking that gold is a bad investment due to recent circumstances with a mentality of “I’m right and they were wrong” is not only the wrong conclusion it references the wrong questions. It is ironic because the premise for gold is long term, and long term fiat currencies always fail. Always.
I’ll now prove my point. Thor, kpack, dergon, answer this question:
Will you short gold right now? If your answer is not yes, you have absolutely no business suggesting what you’ve suggested on this board. It’s very simple.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Quote from kpack123
Beware when he Hucksters like Glen Beck and Limbaugh start pitching something
Quote from dergon
Dude in the general forum retirement thread was recommending gold as “no risk” investment …. “going to $3500!”
[link=http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30231.html]http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30231.html[/link]
For years a certain strain of conservative thought has held that there was one sure hedge against economic depression, civil disorder and liberal rule gold. Now that belief has led to a kind of harmonic convergence between ideology and commerce.
Anyone tuning in to conservative talk radio or Fox Newss Bill OReilly and Glenn Beck shows is bombarded by commercials for gold, mainly in the form of collectible coins, with announcers intoning that inflation and deficits caused by big government spending are devaluing the dollar and making gold the best investment money can buy.
The dire tone sounded in the ads often echo the occasionally apocalyptic economic forecasts of the shows hosts, many of whom have endorsement contracts with the gold retailers, appear in their ads, or have had their executives as guests to trash the economic course set by President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, and to preach the attractions of gold.
Theres a natural synergy between conservative talk radio listeners and gold, said Michael Smerconish, a Philadelphia-based [link=http://www.politico.com/click/stories/0910/talk_radio_without_a_shout_.html]conservative-leaning talk show host[/link] who signed a deal to endorse Goldline International, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based retailer when his show entered syndication in January.
When Roosevelt took the country off the gold standard, Kazin said conservatives began embracing gold in a more populist way as something not subject to the whims or the depredations of government or central banks, which are seen by (populists) on the right and the left as involved in conspiracies to help their friends.
As Smerconish put it to POLITICO, Those who are most concerned about government growth are increasingly dubious about the value of a dollar and look at gold as something they can see, feel, touch, appreciate.
Financial analysts, investment advisors and precious metal experts warn that the collectibles market can be among the riskiest ways to invest in gold, and some blame aggressive advertising and the boosterism on conservative shows for helping push nervous investors into bad deals.
I see it here on AM and with my RL firends. Conservative politics and confidence of gold as an investment go hand -in-hand.
Quote from dergon
Quote from Cigar
You’re not going to go wrong on an 8 year hold of gold, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be crushed with a long term hold of stocks without market timing.
I would say that statistically almost the exact opposite of that is likely to be true.
Long term hold of a basket of equities versus gold in almost every historical period weights in favor of stocks.
But your post is clever in one way. It allows you to comes back and say “I never said no risk! “I never said $3500! … I said 8 years!!”
That way now we have to wait until 2023 to prove you wrong. … that is unless the fiat currency collapses before then 😉
Hey … [b]It’s now 8 years since this thread![/b]
So we’re now at the [b]Gold $3500[/b] prediction point.
And today gold is ……
*** drum roll ****
$1900.-
The S&P 500 over that time has done roughly 9% per year … right in line with historical expectation
-
Sooooo shiny, Ooooo.
-
[link=https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3854245-metals-are-the-new-oil-with-all-the-geopolitical-and-environmental-complications/]Metals are the new oil
[/link]opinion
For good or for ill, metals are the new oil. We need more rare earths and everyday earths to build the technologies of the future and make real a carbon transition. The geopolitics around mines, minerals, and the processing of metals are heating up. For that reason, the U.S. needs a more sophisticated strategy to ensure that the U.S. and our allies have access to mines and minerals.
…Achieving the [link=https://www.ge.com/news/reports/the-4th-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-how-to-respond]4[sup]th[/sup] Industrial Revolution[/link] will depend on metals. While many of these metals are rare earth elements, that are often found in remote or inhospitable parts of the world, more common metals like copper are essential to all electric technologies with predicted supply [link=https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary]insufficient[/link] to meet future demand.
…
The Biden administration wants to bring about a carbon transition. It will require more focus and assertive steps domestically and internationally in mining and minerals to make this happen.
[/QUOTE]
-
-
-
-
Nah, I don’t short anything. To me that’s gambling and I don’t gamble much
-
And I really don’t care if you think it’s my business or not
I do feel that Gold was entirely too high and I’ve been calling it a mini bubble since last fall
If it gets cut in half or maybe to 60% ill think about it
-
If your so sold on gold are you buying now?
-
I have no problem with people holding a small portion of their portfolio in gold as a hedge investment.
Advising the average retail investor to invest in gold because it is a “no risk” proposition or buying gold in exchange for a balanced age-appropriate portfolio mix of equities/bonds/cash because “Barak Obama is destroying our country and currency” is the problematic part.-
I try to never let politics bias my investments
I love making money if a democrat or republican is in office and hate losing money if a dem or republican is in office
I wonder how many people missed out on the doubling of the Dow because Obama is a socialist who is trying to establish a European style government influenced by sharia (spelling) law
-
-
-
-
Same – I have a portfolio that’s 30 years long.
No gold long or short.
-
-
Quote from Thor
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/[/link]
How ironic… a gold bubble bursts. Life must not be so good in Billystan today
Loving it. Buying more.
-
Quote from billainsworth
Loving it. Buying more.
[link=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/21/markets-precious-idUSL3N0EX0AM20130621]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/21/markets-precious-idUSL3N0EX0AM20130621[/link]
Must be another awesome buying opportunity today. …. just ride it all the way to $800. 😉
[b]Gold tumbles again, could see worst week in 30 years[/b]
Gold fell to a three-year low
on Friday and was in danger of recording its biggest weekly drop
in 30 years after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would wind
down its bullion-friendly stimulus later this year.
Spot gold – down nearly 9 percent this week – dropped for
the fifth straight session, while Comex gold futures
also declined over 1 percent to their lowest in three years.
-
Glenn Beck and Rush and Shawn say its a good buy
-
Quote from March 2013
Gold is no risk. It will be 3500 within 3 years.
I don’t know how you beat that investment.
-
-
-
Quote from billainsworth
Quote from Thor
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/[/link]
How ironic… a gold bubble bursts. Life must not be so good in Billystan today
Loving it. Buying more.
+1
-
I’m buying rare earth elements because they are beaten down and abused and buying into the natural gas development which is our huge energy source for the next 100 yrs
I liked gold in the mid 90’s when it was 400 bucks an ounce but I do not like it here even after the massacre
-
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
-
Regional banks are very attractive right now too
Fed just eased lending standard today
-
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
Gold at ~$2,400 year end 2015.
Wow…. you’ve revised downward by 50%, but you are still waaay out there on the bullish side. -
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
Keep on making me a lot of money with your assumptions chump!!!
DUST-[link]http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DUST[/link]
Yep, keeping on hanging on to it and buy more !!!-
[link=http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/interpreting-the-meaning-of-the-collapse-in-gold-prices-by-kenneth-rogoff]http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/interpreting-the-meaning-of-the-collapse-in-gold-prices-by-kenneth-rogoff[/link]
A great article on the current state of the gold markets by Ken Rogoff.
[b]Golden Slumbers[/b]
In principle, holding gold is a form of insurance against war, financial Armageddon, and wholesale currency debasement. And, from the onset of the global financial crisis, the price of gold has often been portrayed as a barometer of global economic insecurity. So, does the collapse in gold prices from a peak of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011 to under $1,250 at the beginning of July 2013 represent a vote of confidence in the global economy?
……the case for or against gold has not changed all that much since 2010, when I [link=http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/-10-000-gold-]last wrote[/link] about it. In October of that year, the price of gold the consummate faith-based speculative asset was on the way up, having just hit $1,300. [b]But the real case for holding it, then as now, was never a speculative one. Rather, gold is a hedge. [/b] If you are a high-net-worth investor, or a sovereign wealth fund, it makes perfect sense to hold a small percentage of your assets in gold as a hedge against extreme events.
Holding gold can also make sense for middle-class and poor households in countries for example, China and India that significantly limit access to other financial investments. For most others, gold is just another gamble that one can make. And, as with all gambles, it is not necessarily a winning one.
Unless governments firmly set the price of gold, as they did before World War I, the market for it will inevitably be risky and volatile. In [link=http://www.nber.org/papers/w18706]a study published in January[/link], the economists Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey consider several possible models of golds fundamental price, and find that gold is at best only loosely tethered to any of them. Instead, the price of gold often seems to drift far above or far below its fundamental long-term value for extended periods. (This behavior is, of course, not unlike that of many other financial assets, such as exchange rates or stock prices, though golds price swings may be more extreme.)
…
So the recent collapse of gold prices has not really changed the case for investing in it one way or the other. Yes, prices could easily fall below $1,000; but, then again, they might rise. Meanwhile, policymakers should be cautious in interpreting the plunge in gold prices as a vote of confidence in their performance.-
[link=http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/13/gold-could-drop-below-us1000-for-first-time-in-4-years-goldman-sachs/]http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/13/gold-could-drop-below-us1000-for-first-time-in-4-years-goldman-sachs/[/link]
Goldman Sachs sees risk of gold below $1,000 on Fed taper and easing tensions with Syria.-
A lot of posting links to expert opinions/predictions above.
Food for thought regarding the value of expert predictions:
[link=http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1?currentPage=all]http://www.newyorker.com/…books1?currentPage=all[/link]-
Oh I agree actually. This thread goes back to a comment made by one AM member who claimed that “gold will be $3500 in a few years. There’s no risk” in a financial advice thread. Combine that with the inexplicable love of gold by a number of the other right wing AMers who continue to hold to the believe that Obama [i]must[/i] be destroying the world as we know it and therefore gold [i]must[/i] skyrocket and you get a thread that is essentially a giant schadenfeude when gold investors get stung 🙂
-
-
-
-
Just about 5 years into the “8 year hold” on this thread.
Gold at about $1,300/oz … just about where it was when this thread was started in 2013. -
Gold goes on a run. Crossed $1800/oz.
That Obama hyper-inflationary economic death spiral finally took hold!-
Well, Trump finally came through for cigar.
-
But it looks like conflict gold is on the rise under cover of the pandemic.
[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/under-cover-of-coronavirus-lockdown-a-booming-trade-in-conflict-gold-11594285200]https://www.wsj.com/artic…flict-gold-11594285200[/link]
At the deserted Entebbe airport on a recent night, Ugandan police searched two cardboard boxes in a white pickup truck that were due to be loaded onto a cargo flight. The plane was bound for Dubai after having ferried Covid-19 aid into Uganda.
In the boxes, the police found the latest and largest haul of gold illegally smuggled from the war zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo: 93 kilograms (205 pounds) worth $5 million.
Inside one of the [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-africas-borders-vast-jams-as-truckers-are-tested-for-covid-19-11591963201]worlds toughest coronavirus lockdowns[/link], a glittering trade for illicit product is booming: conflict gold.-
Yes, gold outperforming the DOW since 2017.
More importantly, since that is an arbitrarily selected starting point, I’d hold physical gold right now over the DOW and S&P for sure.
Looks like that old cigar is probably happy with an investment return, also moving ahead, and not sweating all the madness.
-
-
-
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/13/sweden-mining-company-lkap-finds-big-deposit-of-rare-earth-metals.html]Sweden finds huge deposit of rare earth metals, which could become more important than oil and gas
[/link]
State-owned Swedish mining company LKAB said it has found what it believes to be Europes largest known deposit of rare earth elements.
Located in Kiruna, in the far north of Sweden, the company [link=https://lkab.com/en/press/europes-largest-deposit-of-rare-earth-metals-is-located-in-the-kiruna-area/]said[/link] Thursday that the store contained more than one million metric tons of rare earth oxides.
These metals are used in the manufacture of electric cars and wind turbines, as well as magnets, glass screens, speakers and various other electronics.
The discovery could pave the way for rare earth elements to start being mined in Europe, with the region currently wholly reliant on imports from a market dominated by China.
[/QUOTE]
-
-
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
Ok, that was back in July when gold was $1200 which is pretty much where it is today. Still think it will easily hit $2400 within the 2 years left in your prediction?
[link=http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_6_month_o_b_usd.png]http://goldprice.org/char…ld_6_month_o_b_usd.png[/link]
Quote from Laidback Lib
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
Keep on making me a lot of money with your assumptions chump!!!
DUST-[link=http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DUST]http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DUST[/link]
Yep, keeping on hanging on to it and buy more !!!Funny, a fund that more than doubled your money over the past year by [i][u]TRIPLE[/u] SHORTING[/i] the Gold Miners Index.
Why on earth is anyone still buying gold right now?!
-
7/2/13:
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-rally-fizzles-as-dollar-surges-on-strong-economic-data-2016-11-23]Gold drops to lowest level since February, back below $1,200 / oz [/url]-
Aww cmon he is 1 for 50 in the prediction market now
Technically he is on a roll
-
-
-
-
-
Quote from billainsworth
Quote from Thor
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/[/link]
How ironic… a gold bubble bursts. Life must not be so good in Billystan today
Loving it. Buying more.
[link=http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/02/markets-precious-idUSL3N0OJ0EK20140602]http://www.reuters.com/ar…-idUSL3N0OJ0EK20140602[/link]
PRECIOUS-Gold drops in longest losing streak in nearly 7 months
[pre]Spot gold fell to $1,240.69 an ounce, its lowest since early February,[/pre] [pre] before recovering slightly to $1,243.40 by 0633 GMT. [/pre] [pre]The five-day fall is the metal’s longest losing run since October-November when it dropped [/pre] [pre]for seven straight days. “The technical outlook for gold is not [/pre] [pre]looking very good. There is a good chance it will fall to $1,230 and then all the [/pre] [pre]way $1,200,” said one trader in Tokyo.[/pre] [pre] “Physical markets haven’t reacted very much to last week’s drop but if prices[/pre] [pre] fall to $1,200, then we could see some action.” Reuters technicals analyst Wang[/pre] [pre] Tao said gold is expected to fall to support at $1,229 per ounce, a break below which[/pre] [pre] would lead to a further loss to $1,214. [/pre] [pre][/pre] [pre]
[/pre] [pre]
[/pre]-
seems like everything else, it’s a good investment depending on when you bought it. Even though gold isn’t $3500 it’s still $1200. Maybe now’s a good time to buy a coin or bullion.
-
“Maybe”?
I’m curious why you think that it’s “maybe” a good idea to buy gold now any more than it’s “maybe” a bad idea.
-
Quote from Lux
“Maybe”?
I’m curious why you think that it’s “maybe” a good idea to buy gold now any more than it’s “maybe” a bad idea.
I mention coins, I actually like the idea of gold coins, more than bullion. Gold’s come down like 30% right. I haven’t seen much information out there about it going lower, maybe I’m not looking in the right spot. Back to the coins though, certain collectible coins can have value other than just scrap. I wish I was more into collecting coins than baseball cards as a kid.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
Quote from Lux
“Maybe”?
I’m curious why you think that it’s “maybe” a good idea to buy gold now any more than it’s “maybe” a bad idea.
I mention coins, I actually like the idea of gold coins, more than bullion. Gold’s come down like 30% right. I haven’t seen much information out there about it going lower, maybe I’m not looking in the right spot. Back to the coins though, certain collectible coins can have value other than just scrap. I wish I was more into collecting coins than baseball cards as a kid.
I understand the motivation in having gold stashed under your pillow, but can someone explain to me why someone would choose physical gold over a gold etf when only interested in investing in the price of gold? I have no experience with physical gold, but would think that it would be more expensive to buy and sell $20k of physical gold vs an etf.
-
Physical gold is real
ETF gold is arguably on paper.
arguably -
Quote from NYPhD
can someone explain to me why someone would choose physical gold over a gold etf when only interested in investing in the price of gold? I have no experience with physical gold, but would think that it would be more expensive to buy and sell $20k of physical gold vs an etf.
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/04/15/why-are-small-investors-still-buying-gold-a-psychology-lesson/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/04/15/why-are-small-investors-still-buying-gold-a-psychology-lesson/[/link]
The reason for the demand, according to Malcolm, is that, People dont trust the government; they want to own physical stuff because they are not convinced that anything on paper is going to be of value. Besides gold and silver, there arent many things you can hold onto that will store value over time.
[b]Physically owning something alleviates that fear of potential loss. Through the lens of human behavior, this is explained by the endowment effect. A 2007 [link=http://journal.sjdm.org/06131/jdm06131.htm]study[/link] shows the difference between being told you own something, versus being in physical possession of it. Overwhelmingly, subjects placed far more value on goods in their possession. This is because for thousands of years, possession meant ownership. [/b] Its a relatively recent phenomenon where a piece of paper conveyed ownership and, psychologically, in times of perceived risk, we default to possession of valued objects.
The buying of physical gold and silver reflects fear for an uncertain future, AND a disbelief of the government narrative that all is well and the worst is over. Recently, I asked my father why, when gold was banned by executive order 6102 in 1933, everyone gave it up voluntarily. His reply was telling: Everyone trusted the government to do what was right to help us.
Its the same mistrust of government and financial institutions that keeps Asias physical gold markets booming. For example ordinary Chinese citizens have always bought and held onto as much physical gold as they could afford, because its ingrained after generations of instability. Forced to flee their villages and homes by famine, war and constant government repression, gold was the only thing they could take with them. Its the same principle guiding the immigrants who keep cash in their mattress which I allude to in a recent [link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/03/29/heuristic-thinking-and-the-lesson-from-cyprus/]blog[/link].
-
I have always wondered if people pay taxes on physical gold gains, like they do on etfs.
Quote from dergon
Quote from NYPhD
can someone explain to me why someone would choose physical gold over a gold etf when only interested in investing in the price of gold? I have no experience with physical gold, but would think that it would be more expensive to buy and sell $20k of physical gold vs an etf.
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/04/15/why-are-small-investors-still-buying-gold-a-psychology-lesson/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/04/15/why-are-small-investors-still-buying-gold-a-psychology-lesson/[/link]
The reason for the demand, according to Malcolm, is that, People dont trust the government; they want to own physical stuff because they are not convinced that anything on paper is going to be of value. Besides gold and silver, there arent many things you can hold onto that will store value over time.
[b]Physically owning something alleviates that fear of potential loss. Through the lens of human behavior, this is explained by the endowment effect. A 2007 [link=http://journal.sjdm.org/06131/jdm06131.htm]study[/link] shows the difference between being told you own something, versus being in physical possession of it. Overwhelmingly, subjects placed far more value on goods in their possession. This is because for thousands of years, possession meant ownership. [/b] Its a relatively recent phenomenon where a piece of paper conveyed ownership and, psychologically, in times of perceived risk, we default to possession of valued objects.
The buying of physical gold and silver reflects fear for an uncertain future, AND a disbelief of the government narrative that all is well and the worst is over. Recently, I asked my father why, when gold was banned by executive order 6102 in 1933, everyone gave it up voluntarily. His reply was telling: Everyone trusted the government to do what was right to help us.
Its the same mistrust of government and financial institutions that keeps Asias physical gold markets booming. For example ordinary Chinese citizens have always bought and held onto as much physical gold as they could afford, because its ingrained after generations of instability. Forced to flee their villages and homes by famine, war and constant government repression, gold was the only thing they could take with them. Its the same principle guiding the immigrants who keep cash in their mattress which I allude to in a recent [link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalearcher/2013/03/29/heuristic-thinking-and-the-lesson-from-cyprus/]blog[/link].
-
-
-
-
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
seems like everything else, it’s a good investment depending on when you bought it. Even though gold isn’t $3500 it’s still $1200. Maybe now’s a good time to buy a coin or bullion.
Gold currently is still far above its long term trend value. An argument just as strong as “gold goes to $2000” can be made for “gold drops to $800/oz” over the next few years. Even $500/oz wouldn’t stun me.
It might be a “good time” to buy now but that sounds a lot like speculating on the gold market…. a [i]very[/i] high risk endeavor.
If someone wants to hold precious metals aa5-10% of a portfolio as a hyperinflation or “the world went to hell” hedge then go for it. But it is likely that that component of your portfolio will well under-perform the equities market over time or even lose value if one of those 2 things don’t happen.
-
-
-
Quote from billainsworth
Quote from Thor
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/[/link]
How ironic… a gold bubble bursts. Life must not be so good in Billystan today
Loving it. Buying more.
Rick Santelli (the TV version of Billainsworth) gets his live on air:
[link=http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/07/14/rick_santelli_was_wrong_about_everything_colleague_impolitely_points_out.html]http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/07/14/rick_santelli_was_wrong_about_everything_colleague_impolitely_points_out.html[/link]
[blockquote]It’s impossible for you to have been more wrong, Rick. Your call for inflation, the destruction of the dollar, the failure of the US economy to rebound. Rick, its impossible for you to have been more wrong. Every single bit of advice you gave would have lost people money, Rick. Lost people money, Rick. Every single bit of advice. There is no piece of advice that you’ve given that’s worked, Rick. There is no piece of advice that you’ve given that’s worked, Rick. Not a single one. Not a single one, Rick. The higher interest rates never came, the inability of the U.S. to sell bonds never happened, the dollar never crashed, Rick. There isnt a single one thats worked for you.[/blockquote]
…it’s true, the accidental Prometheus of neo-libertarianism has been wrong all kinds of [link=http://www.businessinsider.com/were-pretty-sure-rick-santelli-said-it-was-about-inflation-2013-6]ways on the inflation threat[/link]. If you took Santelli’s panicky advice and traded your bonds for gold, you can hardly afford a bunk in Galt’s Gulch anymore.-
Supply-side & trickle-down are still gospel to Republicans & Conservatives after over 30 years of being proven wrong. So Libertarianism has also been proven wrong.
So why should being proven wrong all the time change anything?
Pass the Kool-Aid.-
Quote from Frumious
Supply-side & trickle-down are still gospel to Republicans & Conservatives after over 30 years of being proven wrong. So Libertarianism has also been proven wrong.
So why should being proven wrong all the time change anything?
Pass the Kool-Aid.
This is an asinine post and the problem with AM, at times (comments like the above from poiltical hack Frumious). If you post about supporting gold for the various reasons above, it’s because you are “a Republican neocon etc. etc. etc.” all of which has been “proven wrong, because I say so.”
Dude, you’re the one drinking the non-discussion stupidity kool aid.
I post with reasons and supports, not partisan meaningless drivel. But YOU see what YOU WANT to see. The past post proves it. Capiche?-
It might help if you read the posts & what they refer to, Cigar before you stick your feet in your mouth. The post was in response to dergon’s post about Rick Santelli.
As for gold, a prior idiot watched/listened to too much Beck & was investing in gold like a madman. Or so he said. Hence the title of the thread, “so much for shiny metals.”
-
-
-
-
Quote from billainsworth
Quote from Thor
[link=http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/]http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/04/14/bitcoins-crash-gold-and-silver-plunge-what-is-next/[/link]
How ironic… a gold bubble bursts. Life must not be so good in Billystan today
Loving it. Buying more.
[b]
Gold Prices Sink to a 5-Year Low[/b][/h1]
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/gold-set-for-longest-run-of-weekly-losses-since-12-on-rate-bets]http://www.bloomberg.com/…-since-12-on-rate-bets[/link]-
It’s Obama’s fault.
BillAinsworth now works a 2nd job as an associate at his local Walmart to pay off his leveraged bad investments.
-
-
-
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Your investments should be diversified and you would be wise to include some gold in there somewhere, somehow. TK
-
[link=http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/time-gold-bulls-abandon-hope-yamada-132953974.html?vp=1]http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/time-gold-bulls-abandon-hope-yamada-132953974.html?vp=1[/link]
[b]Time for Gold Bulls to Abandon Hope[/b]The best case scenario for gold bulls is that the recent lows hold, allowing some sort of consolidation in the charts. $1,539 is where gold broke down and $1,321 is the trading low made in April. The latter mark is under fire today. Should gold close under that support expect another round of panic selling.
In regards to silver Yamada is, if anything, less hopeful. Those inclined to take a flier can get long as gold’s less-precious sibling approaches $20 and hope that level acts as a backstop against yet another leg of a meltdown. Suffice it to say that’s not an approach she would take herself.
“Hope is never an investment philosophy but we’re all subject to it once and a while,” Yamada says with a chuckle. Most investors would be better off hoping for things like world peace.
-
-
Quote from kpack123
Glenn Beck and Rush and Shawn say its a good buy
I’m quite sure they say that only because they just bought a boat load of it themselves.
That’s reason to avoid it like the plague.
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-01/gold-traders-seeking-floor-after-66-billion-rout-commodities.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-01/gold-traders-seeking-floor-after-66-billion-rout-commodities.html[/link]
Gold Traders Seeking Floor After $66 Billion Rout:
Gold has further to drop in the rout that erased $66 billion from the value of investor holdings and took prices below the level some mines need to break even.
The metal fell to a 34-month low of $1,180.50 an ounce on June 28. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says bullion will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014 and Credit Suisse Group AG anticipates $1,150 in about 12 months. Danske Bank A/S, the most-accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years, predicts $1,000 in three months. Banks from Morgan Stanley to BNP Paribas SA to UBS AG cut their forecasts last month.
That reflects the biggest quarterly slump in at least nine decades as some investors lost faith in bullion as a store of value. With the total cost of producing an ounce of gold now averaging about $1,200 and billions written off the value of mining assets, some analysts anticipate contracting supply in the next several years that may help halt the retreat.-
Quote from dergon
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-01/gold-traders-seeking-floor-after-66-billion-rout-commodities.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-01/gold-traders-seeking-floor-after-66-billion-rout-commodities.html[/link]
Gold Traders Seeking Floor After $66 Billion Rout:
Gold has further to drop in the rout that erased $66 billion from the value of investor holdings and took prices below the level some mines need to break even.
The metal fell to a 34-month low of $1,180.50 an ounce on June 28. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says bullion will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014 and Credit Suisse Group AG anticipates $1,150 in about 12 months. Danske Bank A/S, the most-accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years, predicts $1,000 in three months. Banks from Morgan Stanley to BNP Paribas SA to UBS AG cut their forecasts last month.That reflects the biggest quarterly slump in at least nine decades as some investors lost faith in bullion as a store of value. With the total cost of producing an ounce of gold now averaging about $1,200 and billions written off the value of mining assets, some analysts anticipate contracting supply in the next several years that may help halt the retreat.
I never realized that the average cost to produce an ounce of gold was $1200. That seems awfully steep. I guess gold miners need to make some advances in producing it cheaper or operate at a loss.
-
yeah, i never thought much of the prediction that the guy who posted here made, Simply because it was phrased with the arrogant assurance of a neophyte.
And he was wrong, it did go down.
And I am absolutely certain that then he wil be right, it will go up
and then he will be wrong, it will go down
………..
At each swing of the pendulum, someone will gloat.
-
I have trust in precious metals and real estate.
-
-
-
-
-
Quote from dergon
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
Gold at ~$2,400 year end 2015.
Wow…. you’ve revised downward by 50%, but you are still waaay out there on the bullish side.
I can’t imagine what Cigar is basing such optimism on.
I wonder what Cigar think will happen to the price of real estate.
-
[b]Strong Jobs Report Is Gold’s Nightmare[/b]
The economy just got some great news, and gold hates it.
The U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, easily besting the 165,000 consensus estimate. As soon as it heard the news, [link=http://www.cnbc.com/id/32988158?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cinline%7Cstory%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=100866234%7CStrong%20Jobs%20Report%20Is%20Gol]gold [/link]tanked $26, dropping to the lowest level in a week. But why?
“Gold hates any good U.S. data at this stage,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “because any kind of good news is driving the dollar sharply higher, and gold is just being punished as a result.”
Off of the payrolls data, “equities are higher and the dollar is soaring-this all provides headwinds for gold,” Ilczysyzn told CNBC.com. “And with higher dollar, higher rates and higher equities, that’s the nail in the coffin for gold. There’s just no way for the market to rally here.”
So how low can gold go? “$1,200 is the key level for gold,” said Lien, “and with the latest push higher in the dollar, this week and the following is when we’ll have the opportunity for gold to break below $1,200.”
-
Quote from dergon
[b]Strong Jobs Report Is Gold’s Nightmare[/b]
The economy just got some great news, and gold hates it.
The U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, easily besting the 165,000 consensus estimate. As soon as it heard the news, [link=http://www.cnbc.com/id/32988158?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cinline%7Cstory%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=100866234%7CStrong%20Jobs%20Report%20Is%20Gol]gold [/link]tanked $26, dropping to the lowest level in a week. But why?“Gold hates any good U.S. data at this stage,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “because any kind of good news is driving the dollar sharply higher, and gold is just being punished as a result.”
Off of the payrolls data, “equities are higher and the dollar is soaring-this all provides headwinds for gold,” Ilczysyzn told CNBC.com. “And with higher dollar, higher rates and higher equities, that’s the nail in the coffin for gold. There’s just no way for the market to rally here.”
So how low can gold go? “$1,200 is the key level for gold,” said Lien, “and with the latest push higher in the dollar, this week and the following is when we’ll have the opportunity for gold to break below $1,200.”Well, Point Man doesn’t think it’s good news that 30k more jobs were generated last month than what was anticipated, so I’m sure this is falling on deaf ears.
Who here still thinks gold will go up before it goes down even further?
When do you think gold will become profitable, if ever?-
The fundamental case for a marked increase in the value of gold is that of the US economy being only able to meet its debt obligations / generate economic through massive increase in the money supply with dollar devaluation and subsequent dramatic increase in inflation.
If the US economy does OK, even moderately well with 2+%growth, the need for massive easing for growth decreases as does the liklihood of a devaluation due to the debt since the Debt:GDP ration will moderate.
There might well be some intrinsic increase in demand for physical gold but that’s not going to push it to $2,500-$3,500 an oz. You need the dire economic sickness to make that happen.
Yeah, I saw Point Man’s comments too. It just lends durther credence to the notion that right wing republicans have a more pesimissitic view of the economy than do the rest of the people and think gold is more likely to be a valuable asset because of it.-
Quote from dergon
The fundamental case for a marked increase in the value of gold is that of the US economy being only able to meet its debt obligations / generate economic through massive increase in the money supply with dollar devaluation and subsequent dramatic increase in inflation.
If the US economy does OK, even moderately well with 2+%growth, the need for massive easing for growth decreases as does the liklihood of a devaluation due to the debt since the Debt:GDP ration will moderate.
There might well be some intrinsic increase in demand for physical gold but that’s not going to push it to $2,500-$3,500 an oz. You need the dire economic sickness to make that happen.
Yeah, I saw Point Man’s comments too. It just lends durther credence to the notion that right wing republicans have a more pesimissitic view of the economy than do the rest of the people and think gold is more likely to be a valuable asset because of it.
And they will lose their shirt on the bad bet…and then blame Obama for it.
-
-
-
-
Quote from Lux
Quote from dergon
Quote from Cigar
Gold easy double in the next 2.5 years
Gold at ~$2,400 year end 2015.
Wow…. you’ve revised downward by 50%, but you are still waaay out there on the bullish side.
I can’t imagine what Cigar is basing such optimism on.
I wonder what Cigar think will happen to the price of real estate.
Just about a year on from the original prediction of Gold $3,500 in a “few years” …. and well on the way to the year end 2015 call.
[link=http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/18/markets-precious-idUSL6N0NA11R20140418]http://www.reuters.com/ar…-idUSL6N0NA11R20140418[/link]
Gold close for the week of April 17, 2014 — $1,294 /oz
-
-
[b]Wouldn’t you like to be on the calls where [/b][link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/gold-fix-drawing-scrutiny-amid-knowledge-tied-to-eruption.html][b]five banks[/b][/link][b] set the price of gold, too?[/b]
[b][link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/gold-fix-drawing-scrutiny-amid-knowledge-tied-to-eruption.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/gold-fix-drawing-scrutiny-amid-knowledge-tied-to-eruption.html[/link][/b]
[b]Like the LIBOR scandal, but for he setting of gold prices.[/b]
[b]
[/b]-
I think there’s some lesser known banking scandals currently going on. You have this gold fixing and I think I read one about rigging the energy market too. Check out Matt Taibbi, I like his writing and he’s on top of a lot of these banking scandals.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
I think there’s some lesser known banking scandals currently going on. You have this gold fixing and I think I read one about rigging the energy market too. Check out Matt Taibbi, I like his writing and he’s on top of a lot of these banking scandals.
mrs_dergon gets [i]Rolling Stone[/i] Primarily for Matt Taibbi’s work
-
Quote from namewithheld early 2013
Gold is no risk. It will be 3500 within 3 years.
I don’t know how you beat that investment.
And I’m a high risk guy.
The only thing that is a certainty in the world right now is that countries cannot stop the QE to infinity train. The sooner you realize that, the better you are to both predict, plan, and possibly offer up solutions.
Looks like a QE taper on the horizon with gold just above $1,200 /oz going to year end.
I’m pretty doubtful on a 2 year month gold tripling.
-
re no risk comment
even if one is spot on [i]eventually[/i]
brings to mind the keynes quote
”
The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent”[/h1] -
[b][i]Quote from [b]namewithheld early 2013[/b][/i][/b]
[i][b]
[u][/u][/b][/i]
It is funny how many of us jumped on that quote immediately at the time and poiinted out how ludicrous it was
GOld at the time of his comment was teetering on a mini speculative bubble and it is always amazing how individuals can whipp up these absolute safe no brainer claims…………………………right before the bubble pops.
Sheer delusions-
Gold plunges to six-month low after Fed inches away from ultra-loose policy[/h1]
[link=http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/19/gold-prices-thursday-fed/]http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/19/gold-prices-thursday-fed/[/link]
Gold slid more than 1% on Thursday to its lowest since late June after the U.S. Federal Reserve took its first step away from the ultra-loose monetary policy that had helped drive bullion prices to record highs in recent years.
The Fed said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy was finally strong enough for it to start scaling back its massive bond-buying scheme, winding down the era of easy money that saw gold rally to $1,920.30 an ounce in 2011.
I wish Bill was still here to say “loving it! Buying more!” 😉-
Recent Article from bloomberg on gold manipulation
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-19/how-to-keep-banks-from-rigging-gold-prices.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-19/how-to-keep-banks-from-rigging-gold-prices.html[/link]
Apparently there’s not too much the banks aren’t rigging.-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-31/gold-bulls-retrench-as-price-drops-most-in-32-years-commodities.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-31/gold-bulls-retrench-as-price-drops-most-in-32-years-commodities.html[/link]
[b]Gold Bulls Retrench as Price Drops Most in 32 Years[/b]
[link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/hedge-funds/]Hedge funds[/link] got less bullish on gold for the seventh time in eight weeks as the [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/u.s.-economy/]U.S. economy[/link] strengthens and inflation fails to accelerate, driving prices to the biggest annual drop in more than three decades.
Investors shunned gold in 2013, halting 12 straight years of price gains. Global equities rallied on improving growth prospects and inflation failed to accelerate, eroding demand for bullion as a preserver of wealth. Assets in exchange-traded products backed by bullion fell to the lowest since 2009 as holders including billionaires [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/george-soros/]George Soros[/link] and John Paulson sold. The [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/international-monetary-fund/]International Monetary Fund[/link] signaled this month the U.S. economy will expand more than forecast.
Prices are likely to grind lower through 2014, [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/jeffrey-currie/]Jeffrey Currie[/link], the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview Dec. 19. The metal will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014, the bank said in a Nov. 20 report. The Fed will probably cut its bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists conducted on Dec. 19.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Why buy gold
Inflation hedge ?
Maybe you think it’s bottomed
I don’t know any other non emotional reason
Personally I don’t see it falling too much more
-
Quote from kpack123
Why buy gold
[u][b]Inflation[/b][/u] hedge ?Maybe you think it’s [u][b]bottomed[/b][/u]
I don’t know any other [u][b]non emotional[/b][/u] reason
Personally I don’t see it falling [u][b]too much more [/b][/u]To what “[u][b]inflation[/b][/u]” are you referring?
I don’t know if gold has [u][b]bottomed[/b][/u], nor do I know of any reason that anyone else should think it has bottomed.
If you are truly “[u][b]non emotional[/b][/u]” about gold, then why do you think it won’t fall “[b][u]too much more[/u][/b]”?
-
The last gold correction took 20 years to play out. There may be a consumer support level from indian/asian demand, but as investment for the West I don’t think we’ve seen capitulation yet.
*shrugs* I don’t own any anyway, but I wouldn’t be buying now.-
You asked for reasons
I gave you reasons as to why one might buy gold now
Probably the best reason is as an inflation hedge
A lot of advisors recommend owning 5%
That’s just how it is
Myself other than some gold coins I received as gifts as a kid, I own none and don’t plan on buying any either
That being said with tapering starting, I doubt it falls much from here
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-07/10-reasons-the-gold-bugs-lost-their-shirts.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…lost-their-shirts.html[/link]
A nice article on why gold dumped in 2013. For me it is also the first use of the word [link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/goldenfreude-skeptical-advisers-can-t-help-gloating.html]Goldenfreude[/link] describing a delight in gold bugs collective pain.. 🙂
[b]1. Beware the Narrative:[/b] Humans love a neat tale with heroes and villains and conflicts that need resolution.
On Wall Street, storytelling is a big part of the sales process, and gold was no different. Even though it had broken out in 2005, the Great Recession and bank bailouts of 2007-08 created a fertile environment for the Gold Narrative. It was a perfect combination of factors: Huge government intervention, a move away from true free markets, coordinated central bank actions, unprecedented quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies would inevitably cause a huge debasing of currency and hyperinflation, or so the story went. Gold is a haven in times of stress and a hedge against inflation when economies accelerate. It was underowned and yet an attractive alternative to assets with low real returns. Based on the amount of total outstanding fiat currency, gold would hit those $10,000 price targets.
The problem with all of this was that even as the narrative was failing, the storytellers never changed their tale. The dollar hit three-year highs, despite QE. Inflation was nowhere to be found. If anything, deflation was the greater risk.
The problem with storytelling is that it makes an investor feel good, even as the data show the opposite and the position goes against him.
….
[b]5. Maintain Situational Awareness:[/b] The concept of situational awareness comes from military theory, particularly aviation, representing the idea that a pilot needs to be fully cognizant of all the elements occurring in three-dimensional space, as well as those about to occur in the near future. For the investor, situational awareness means not getting too caught up in the moment, and understanding the continuum of time. Instead of thinking of any event as a single instance in time like a photograph, consider instead a series of instances more akin to a video. Doing so forces the investor to think of the big picture, the 30,000 foot view.
As John Updike wrote, The beauty of gold is, it loves bad news. (“Rabbit is Rich,” p.247). Quite a few gold investors came to believe that the bad economic news had become permanent. But all cycles eventually turn; even the Great Depression ended. So, too, did this recession.
[b]. End-of-World Tales, Conspiracy Theories and Other Such Nonsense:[/b] More than any other investment, gold seems to involve a stream of fantastic tales of imminent societal collapse. Every potential problem gets blown up into a coming apocalypse. Fiat currency leads to worldwide collapse, as the dollar falters and hyperinflation appears. All paper money is going to be worthless, so you better have some gold if you want to feed your family.
Except that the fear-mongering is always backward looking. The dollar had already[link=http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/dollars-biggest-decline-2001-08/]collapsed by 41[/link] percent from 2001-2008; we had very strong [link=http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/category/inflation/]inflation[/link] in the 2000s, and much more moderate inflation after the financial crisis.
Then there are the theories of anti-gold conspiracies: Central banks are manipulating prices; the Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiding data showing how much worse inflation really is.
Gold is marketed through a combination of fear and dishonesty. (As opposed to various equity products, which are marketed through a combination of hope and dishonesty).
[b]10. Attacking the Skeptics: [/b]The response to rational argument is often a revealing tell. Over the gold cycle, attacks on anyone with the temerity to challenge the gold narrative became ad hominem. Accusations of selling out, being in the Feds pocket and a patsy for the administration were just some of the personal attacks I witnessed. Challenge anyones belief on gold, and instead of having empirical, data-driven counterarguments made, the zealots responded with venom. Have a read of the comment stream of ZeroHedge.com for some true gems of the genre. They reveal an investment gone awry combined with a lack of idea as to what to do about it.
***
The rise and fall of gold reflected all of the usual errors that emotional investors make. An honest postmortem will allow you to identify the mistakes that were made, and maybe even learn something from them.
[/ul]
-
-
-
-
Quote from kpack123
Why buy gold
Inflation hedge ?
Maybe you think it’s bottomed
I don’t know any other non emotional reason
Personally I don’t see it falling too much more
kpack’s got it
No one could have predicted 17k market — obviously this is why gold is stagnant. That said, good for those that did.
Still, with all the I told you so, you are not a loser having bought gold when I talked about it. It was no risk, and still is. Can you do better currently? Appears so. But what about when you don’t get out in time?
That’s the question.
-
-
When I was a kid I once hauled in 4 bucks for a 1955 double die penny. That’s a 40,000% return within one day.
-
Quote from Cigar
No one could have predicted 17k market — obviously this is why gold is stagnant. That said, good for those that did.
Still, with all the I told you so, you are not a loser having bought gold when I talked about it. It was no risk, and still is. Can you do better currently? Appears so. But what about when you don’t get out in time?
This makes absolutely no sense. You say “It was no risk, and still is.” – That flies in the face of historical performance of commodity markets and the gold market in particular.
Even when compared to volatility in the equities markets gold is much more volatile. It has also underperformed the equities markets over the long run.
You ask “But what about when you don’t get out in time?” – That question is equally valid for both equities and gold. Actually the question is more valid to be asked about gold since the long term performance of equities has consistently been positive. A person needs to address asset allocation relative to their time horizon, but this is true for any investment.
Quote from Cigar
the premise for gold is long term, and long term fiat currencies always fail. Always.
The flaw in your thinking right here. It is [i]exactly[/i] the psychology of the conservative/libertarian perspective that a crash [i]must[/i] be coming… it must be coming some time sooner or later. The view that fiat money is going to disappear is mad and silly. Fiat money is going nowhere, except (probably) a bit down in value.
But while you’re hording canned goods, building secure shelters and buying gold, the odds say that that the money you have tied up in gold will underperform the broader markets and leave your total wealth lessened.
Cigar and the libertarians whose views he represents are all waiting the for the “I told you so!” moment of revelation.
It’s not going to happen.
__-
You say you’re being attacked unfairly because you are a conservative. Well, on this subject conservative thinking is just …. wrong.
-
Cigar must hang out in the same circles as Bill. Same fantasies. Including about gold.
-
Even if you grant the premise “All fiat currencies fail …eventually” that doesn’t do [b]anything[/b] to enlighten an investment plan.
They very rarely fail in the short term, medium term, or even in the long-term of a single person’s investing lifetime.
So saying all fiat systems will [i]eventually[/i] fail is pointless. Some day we will all die to.
This doesnt tell us anything about how to invest or utilize the current monetary system during our lifetimes.-
“All fiat currencies fail”
This is ignorant. All currencies are “fiat” because no currency has intrinsic value. Even that present Libertarian infatuation, “Bitcoin.” It is backed by less than nothing & yet to some it has value.
Even gold. What intrinsic value has gold? It’s value fluctuates. What’s intrinsic about it? It’s value rises & falls depending how people view it’s value day by day. Like any money, it is symbolic of value.
-
Actually, gold is probably a good place to park a good chunk of your money right now. When equities are flying high and everyone is exuberant, it can indicate a market peak or a bubble. Just like when gold was $2,000/oz.
If the Fed keeps pumping liquidity into the market, it is only a matter of time before the dollar devalues and inflation takes off. Keep an eye on the dollar/pound chart.
Equity valuations are through the roof. Even Yellen said so. The chances of large ROI’s on equities are very slim in an overpriced market.
Everything cycles, including gold. Look at Apple. Three years in the dog house, and then it took off overnight. It will soon be gold’s turn to have a corrective run. It would be a shame to be on the sidelines when this happens.
By the way, I loved Rick Santelli’s rant. He speaks for a lot of us conservative capitalists in the silent majority who are tired of paying for everyone else. Go Rick!-
There’s a difference between “letting the dollar weaken in a controlled and gradual manner” and the wholesale currency debasement that Cigar seems to predict as being forthcoming.
Gold might get a little a bump in the former scenario, but would only see the predicted $3500/oz mark in the latter.
And if the mild dollar weakening occurs during a continued US/global economic expansion then it is still likely that gold will underperform equities, even with a likely market correction in the next year or two.
It just goes back to gold as a hedge investment versus the [i]unlikely[/i] (but not 0%) probability of economic and geopolitical catastrophe. But if as an investor you have a constant over-estimation of the catastrophic risk you will miss out on market returns.
____
Sterling is likely to strengthen vs. USD over the next 6 months because it looks like the BoE is tightening faster than Yellen is tapering. But US monetary policy has been getting less easy and is looking to stay on that path barring economic disruption.
And finally — I have absolutely no problem with people advocating low taxes when they are open about their reasons for that support. As long as the low-tax people are saying “I want to pay less and don’t want to pay for anyone else!” that’s a fair argument on which there can be an honest policy debate.
But it’s when that low tax position gets dressed up as pro-growth economic policy that the dishonesty begins. Let’s ot pretend that tax cuts pay for themselves, or that lowering rates on “job creators” increases jobs and GDP. It doesn’t happen.
So go out there and say “I don’t want to pay for the freeloaders!” all you want. But don’t sell that self-enriching position as good for the economy.-
Quote from dergon
I have absolutely no problem with people advocating low taxes when they are open about their reasons for that support. As long as the low-tax people are saying “I want to pay less and don’t want to pay for anyone else!” that’s a fair argument on which there can be an honest policy debate.
But it’s when that low tax position gets dressed up as pro-growth economic policy that the dishonesty begins. Let’s ot pretend that tax cuts pay for themselves, or that lowering rates on “job creators” increases jobs and GDP. It doesn’t happen.
So go out there and say “I don’t want to pay for the freeloaders!” all you want. But don’t sell that self-enriching position as good for the economy.
Well said.
The selfish greed of the naked wolf isn’t nearly as despicable as the hypocrisy of the wolf in sheep’s clothing.
-
I actually agree with your criticisms but the reality is that you’re slightly misinterpreting what I am saying and what we are saying, which may be my fault.
My opinion is that QE is historic and unlike, by a ton, any other time in history in that governments all over are realizing that the only option is massive QE (ask Japan).
Of course gold is not zero risk. In my opinion as an investment, though, it is very very very low. Extremely low. I stated it that way just for effect. One could of course say that an additional risk would be lost opportunity cost in a rising DOW. Sure, that’s true.
I’m not in league with any conservatives, libertarians, or anyone else for that matter. My goal on these boards has been more to think straight than take some political line, which I feel most do here. Just sayin’
Ciggie-Poo-
Gold “Low risk”?
The only thing that is very very very low risk about gold is the risk of losing the actual gold.
There are many theories about the price of gold… oil/gold ratio etc…. they work day to day, but not over the long term.
[size=”0″]My experience is that investing a large sum in gold is like investing in a single stock. Not advisable.[/size]
Value will rise day to day and if you catch the upside of a bubble, you feel really smart, but buy and hold over a year or two can and will get you slammed.
Low Low Low risk is a CD. Low Low risk is owning a house in a good school district over decades. Low risk is stock diversification over decades. Gold can’t compare unless there is a Walking Dead scenario.
Quote from Cigar
I actually agree with your criticisms but the reality is that you’re slightly misinterpreting what I am saying and what we are saying, which may be my fault.
My opinion is that QE is historic and unlike, by a ton, any other time in history in that governments all over are realizing that the only option is massive QE (ask Japan).
Of course gold is not zero risk. In my opinion as an investment, though, it is very very very low. Extremely low. I stated it that way just for effect. One could of course say that an additional risk would be lost opportunity cost in a rising DOW. Sure, that’s true.
I’m not in league with any conservatives, libertarians, or anyone else for that matter. My goal on these boards has been more to think straight than take some political line, which I feel most do here. Just sayin’
Ciggie-Poo
-
-
-
Quote from aldadoc
If the Fed keeps pumping liquidity into the market, it is only a matter of time before the dollar devalues and inflation takes off. Keep an eye on the dollar/pound chart.
I actually am going to take the exact opposite side of this comment. I think there is greater odds the European currencies deliberately weakening themselves to stave off depression while at the same time the Fed is on track to finish asset purchases as scheduled.
The US manufacturing index beat estimates by a good bit today. A lot of that is on current dollar relative weakness. The Europeans want significantly weaker Euro and., while not to the same extent, the UK is seeing worryingly low inflation and is more likely to ease than tighten.
-
that’s what’s not made much sense to me. The Fed has pumped a lot of liquidity into the market but inflation really hasn’t gone up much. The markets are at all time highs.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
that’s what’s not made much sense to me. The Fed has pumped a lot of liquidity into the market but inflation really hasn’t gone up much. The markets are at all time highs.
I think we won’t start to see much inflation until the slack comes out of the labor market and starts to drive wages up.
______
Back to currencies:
BoE held rates at historic lows today, citing “shock” risks, low wage growth, and deflationary/dis-inflationary pressures,
Pound lower v. the USD again.
-
seemingly they haven’t done as much to prop up the market and that is possibly going to bite them in the butt. At the same time weak Europe isn’t probably that great for the US either. Could be worse, they could be on the Russian reuble. I think that’s 60R – 1 dollar. I heard Bill Oreilly talking a about how we haven’t really hurt Russia with sanctions but their economy is spiraling down the toilet.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
seemingly they haven’t done as much to prop up the market and that is possibly going to bite them in the butt. At the same time weak Europe isn’t probably that great for the US either. Could be worse, they could be on the Russian reuble. I think that’s 60R – 1 dollar. I heard Bill Oreilly talking a about how we haven’t really hurt Russia with sanctions but their economy is spiraling down the toilet.
The US really doesn’t have much sanction leverage against Russia. It has to be the Europeans. But the sanctions are stinging a bit… and will sting more. But sanctions are a long game, not meant for quick results. Putin can go a long way while his economy flounders.
-
And even more on currencies…
Mario Draghi has announced the the ECB will do its own QE/asset purchase program.
That is a “strong dollar” move for the USD too.
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-04/draghi-says-ecb-readying-sizable-abs-purchases-after-rate-cut.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…es-after-rate-cut.html[/link]
-
[link=http://online.wsj.com/articles/gold-slips-after-scottish-vote-1411137675]http://online.wsj.com/art…ottish-vote-1411137675[/link]
Gold hits lowest price of the year this week as the Scottish vote takes out a lot of inscurity on geopolitics.
Driving the selling in gold was a burgeoning dollar. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index notched its longest winning streak in at least 28 years, as it rose for a 10th straight week against a basket of major currencies. Investors have piled into the currency in recent weeks, betting that the Federal Reserve is closer to raising interest rates, a move that would make the dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
On Wednesday, the Fed took tentative steps toward unwinding its historic easy-money policies while reassuring investors that rates will remain low even as the economy expands. The comments sent the dollar soaring, pushed up bond yields and drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a historic record. Gold, which doesn’t pay interest and struggles during periods of rising rates, went in the opposite direction, losing 1.5% on the week.
The results of Scotland’s vote on independence also weighed on gold prices, as 55% chose to stay in the U.K. The run-up to the vote had created some concern in markets, with investors unsure what currency regime an independent Scotland would adopt, or how the two countries would divide up debt and natural resources. Some investors gravitate toward gold in times of political or economic uncertainty, believing the metal will hold its value better than other assets when trouble strikes.
“This gold drop isn’t even close to being over,” said Thomas Capalbo, a broker at Newedge. “People have no reason to buy gold right now. There are too many other things happening in markets that provide more opportunity.”
____
And this little read popped up among my recommendations:
[link=http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/09/21/why-warren-buffett-hates-gold/15909821/]http://www.usatoday.com/s…t-hates-gold/15909821/[/link]
[b]
Why Warren Buffett hates gold[/b][/h1]Warren Buffett didn’t become one of the greatest investors of our generation by investing in gold. In fact, he pretty much hates the shiny metal.
…..
There’s a real good reason why Warren Buffett hates gold. One who buys gold is hoping for the greater fool to buy it from them for a higher price at some future date. But that’s not investing — it’s gambling.
Instead, Buffett seeks to surround himself with assets that are constantly producing value. Income that flows through the business is reinvested in new lines of business that go on to produce more income. It’s a never-ending cycle where new wealth is created each and every year. It takes advantage of the wonders of compounding income and leaves behind the folly of being allured by a lazy, good-for-nothing, shiny object.
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-30/gold-holds-near-9-month-low-on-course-for-worst-quarter-in-2014.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…t-quarter-in-2014.html[/link]
Gold to close out Q3 at nearly the lowest value of the year. Also reinforces the strong dollar story.
Gold fell to a nine-month low on Tuesday as the dollar climbed, with the metal set to post its sharpest monthly loss since June 2013 and the first quarterly loss this year on expectations of further gains in the U.S. currency.
Gold is down about 5.5 percent for the month and heading for a quarterly drop of 9 percent.
Spot gold touched its lowest since Jan. 1 at $1,204.40 an ounce and was down 0.7 percent at $1,207.50 an ounce by 1211 GMT, while U.S. gold futures lost $10.90 to $1,207.90 an ounce.
The dollar climbed to a four-year peak against a basket of major currencies, helped by strong U.S. economic data on Monday, while European stocks rose after figures showed euro zone annual inflation at 0.3 percent in September. -
Is the dollar strong or is it that we’re just the tallest midget?
Might not matter, but it is a fairly important question long term. -
Quote from Cigar
Is the dollar strong or is it that we’re just the tallest midget?
Might not matter, but it is a fairly important question long term.
[link=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/03/inflation-hawks-are-hilariously-delusional/]http://www.washingtonpost…ilariously-delusional/[/link]
[b]
[h1]Inflation hawks keep insisting theyre right. Reality disagrees. [/b][/h1]
[image]http://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2014/10/Currency-Debasement.jpg[/image]
On Nov. 15, 2010, a who’s who of conservative economists, investors and Niall Ferguson [link=http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/15/open-letter-to-ben-bernanke/]warned[/link] that the Federal Reserve’s second round of bond-buying, or QE2, “risk[ed] currency debasement and inflation.” Since then, the dollar is up 6 percent against a broad index of currencies, and personal consumption expenditure inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, has soared from 1.2 to … 1.5 percent.
Just like Weimar Germany.
Now, everybody makes mistakes. The question, though, is what you learn from them. For these inflation hawks, the answer, apparently, is nothing.[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.html]Caleb Melby, Laura Marcinek, and Danielle Burger[/link] of Bloomberg News tracked down nine of the letter’s 23 signers, and asked them if they still stand by it today. They all do. Although, to be fair, some of them seem to be more acquainted with empirical reality than others.
And even actual monetary policy expert John Taylor claims that “the letter said several thingsthe risk of inflation, employment, it would destroy financial markets, complicate the Fed’s efforts to normalize monetary policyand all have happened.” One problem: They have not.
Then there’s the more bashful group that concedes they haven’t been right[i]yet[/i], but thinks they will be. Former inflation truther [link=http://www.newsweek.com/great-inflation-2010s-67663]Niall Ferguson[/link] says their spectacularly bad prediction wasn’t one per se, and that “there is in fact still a risk of currency debasement and inflation.” Current inflation truther [link=http://www.nationalreview.com/article/382859/inflation-vacation-amity-shlaes]Amity Shlaes[/link] thinks that “inflation could come” despite [link=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/03/unemployment-is-finally-under-6-percent-but-dont-expect-a-raise-anytime-soon/]no evidence of it[/link]. And former McCain economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin protests that “they are going to generate an uptick in core inflation” and “they are going to go above 2 percent.”
Although it’s not as frightening as what would’ve happened if we’d listened to these inflation hawks. To get an idea of that, just look at Europe. It raised rates twice in 2011 to quash an oil price blip, and quashed its economy instead. Unemployment is still 11.5 percent, and inflation has drifted down to 0.3 percent lost decade territory. And now it’s about to start its own [link=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/02/can-europes-mini-qe-save-it-from-a-lost-decade/]mini-QE[/link] to try to save itself.
It’s too late, though, for the inflation hawks to save any credibility they might have. Their insistence that they’re right in defiance of all facts has debased that.
___
ps – Gold under $1200/oz on Friday
-
Quote from Cigar
Is the dollar strong or is it that we’re just the tallest midget?
If we were just “the tallest midget”, seeing global currency debasement and devaluations across the board, the price of gold would indeed be heading upward.
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-02/aussie-sinks-on-china-gold-holds-drop-with-yen-after-boj.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…ith-yen-after-boj.html[/link]
[link=http://online.wsj.com/articles/gold-slips-as-dollar-stocks-rise-1415027547]http://online.wsj.com/art…stocks-rise-1415027547[/link]
But we instead get these simultaneous headlines
[b]Dollar Climbs to 7-Year High [/b]
and
[b]
Gold Sinks to Fresh Four-Year Low[/b]
We’re now in a scenario where on a relative basis the US Federal reserve is tightening while Japan is cranking on stimulus and ECB is leaning that way.
-
might be time to add a coin to my collection
-
I’m still thinking there is more room for gold to fall
-
I think gold hit bottom. There may be a 20% upside in the next year.
-
I’d say more likely to push back down toward pre-crisis level before recovering. I’ll say mid $900s/ oz is the near bottom.
-
Quote from aldadoc
I think gold hit bottom. There may be a 20% upside in the next year.
Gold prices down 6% 2015 ytd.
Prices bumping around $1,100/oz.
Might bounce up a bit if the Fed decides not to raise rates this weeks, but a fed move is likely coming this year at some point and that will be more downward pressure on gold prices.
-
I can’t remember where I read this but someone asserted the rate hike is already priced in with the market drop so they might as well go for it.
-
Quote from dergon
Quote from aldadoc
I think gold hit bottom. There may be a 20% upside in the next year.
Gold prices down 6% 2015 ytd.
Prices bumping around $1,100/oz.
Might bounce up a bit if the Fed decides not to raise rates this weeks, but a fed move is likely coming this year at some point and that will be more downward pressure on gold prices.
And the double standard is exposed. Most of the investors (smartly) here are the Boglehead types, meaning long term holds. You’re not going to go wrong on an 8 year hold of gold, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be crushed with a long term hold of stocks without market timing. You guys don’t get to use it as both sword and shield.
I wouldn’t touch the market with a 100 foot pole currently … I’m waiting another year easy. A bigger drop is coming. -
So is the prediction now that in 8 years gold will be @ $XXXX.CC per ounce?
-
Cigar You are retarded
-
Quote from Cigar
You’re not going to go wrong on an 8 year hold of gold, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be crushed with a long term hold of stocks without market timing.
I would say that statistically almost the exact opposite of that is likely to be true.
Long term hold of a basket of equities versus gold in almost every historical period weights in favor of stocks.
But your post is clever in one way. It allows you to comes back and say “I never said no risk! “I never said $3500! … I said 8 years!!”
That way now we have to wait until 2023 to prove you wrong. … that is unless the fiat currency collapses before then 😉
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Quote from aldadoc
Actually, gold is probably a good place to park a good chunk of your money right now. When equities are flying high and everyone is exuberant, it can indicate a market peak or a bubble. Just like when gold was $2,000/oz.
If the Fed keeps pumping liquidity into the market, it is only a matter of time before the dollar devalues and inflation takes off. Keep an eye on the dollar/pound chart.
Quote from Reuters
The U.S. dollar hit nine-month highs against the euro and rose against a basket of major [link=http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies?lc=int_mb_1001]currencies[/link] on Tuesday after strong U.S. housing data bolstered expectations for an earlier-than-expected rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Last week’s exchange rate markets saw the Pound to Dollar pair trade from highs of 1.6736 to lows of 1.6567, as GBP weakened and USD strengthened over economic releases. The British asset hit its lowest level against the US currency since April 2012 as UK inflation slowed and inconsistent remarks from Bank of England officials put pressure on the British currency.
____
And just to keep us up to date on gold:
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/gold-drops-toward-two-month-low-as-silver-slips-to-10-week-low.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…ps-to-10-week-low.html[/link]
[b]Gold Resumes Fall as Dollar Advances[/b]
Gold futures fell as the dollar strengthened, curbing demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Silver halted declines.
The dollar climbed to the highest in 11 months against the euro and was the strongest against the yen since January.
Gold for December delivery dropped 0.1 percent to $1.279.60 an ounce by 7:23 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices rose 0.4 percent on Aug. 22. -
What or who is the midget being compared against and who is the midget? How relevant is the question?
The dollar is strong. -
More ECB QE/easing is “inevitable”. As Draghi throws the door open to money printing”
[link=http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/21/us-ecb-draghi-inflation-idUSKCN0J50Q320141121]http://www.reuters.com/ar…-idUSKCN0J50Q320141121[/link]
When combined with Japan BOJ action, USD called to strengthen 5-10% over 2015.
And for gold in that environment:
“Given a new QE program by the ECB that is bearish for gold, a Federal Reserve that stands ready to increase interest rates next year and a very weak technical picture we continue to hold the view that gold and silver prices are currently at unsustainably high levels. The next big support for gold is at $1180 and this could be tested very soon should Yellen have a hawkish tone. Whilst gold and silver could have a small bounce from these levels we think that any attempt to move higher will be feeble and short lived, therefore this is move to be faded and used to add or initiate short positions. Over the medium term we see gold trading down to $1030 and therefore we will most likely maintain a core short position until that level is reached.”
-
I was watching Yamana Gold stock tank and took a small shot @ $3.64. It got was slidding and then got chopped in half Sept-Oct. I think long term that goes higher, it ran back above $4. It’s a producer so I think it’s slightly riskier but I didn’t dump a lot of money on it.
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/swiss-vote-against-gold-deals-blow-to-investors-hurt-by-slump.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…ors-hurt-by-slump.html[/link]
[b]Swiss Vote Against Gold Deals Blow to Investors Hurt by Slump[/b]
With no chance that the Swiss central bank will be the next big buyer of gold, its one more reason for investors to be bearish.
Voters today rejected a referendum requiring the [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/swiss-national-bank/]Swiss National Bank[/link] hold at least 20 percent of its 520-billion-franc ($540 billion) balance sheet in gold. Had it been approved, it would have led to purchases of at least 1,500 metric tons over five years. With lower [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/oil-prices/]oil prices[/link]reducing costs for consumers and the U.S. considering raising [link=http://topics.bloomberg.com/interest-rates/]interest rates[/link], demand is fading for hedges against inflation such as gold.-
Gold showed outside reversal on large volume today after the Swiss vote. Bullish pattern but may not have legs.
Looks like buy the rumor, sell the news….or in the case of gold and the Swiss vote… sell/short sell the rumor, buy/cover short the news.
-
-
-
-
Shiny metals, 2014 year end edition:
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/cheaper-oil-putting-gold-out-of-job-as-an-inflation-hedge.html]http://www.bloomberg.com/…n-inflation-hedge.html[/link]
Cheap oil drags down the price of gold.
Oil is in a bear-market freefall that began in June, spearheading the longest commodity slump in at least a generation. The collapse means that instead of the surge in consumer prices that gold buyers have been expecting for much of the past decade, the U.S. is dis-inflating.
A gauge of inflation expectations that closely tracks gold is headed for the biggest annual drop since the recession in 2008. While bullion rebounded from a four-year low last month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA reiterated their bearish outlooks for prices. The metals appeal as an alternative asset is fading as the dollar and U.S. equities rally, and as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates to keep the economy from overheating.
Forget inflation — all of the talk now is about deflation, Peter Jankovskis, who helps oversee $1.9 billion as co-chief investment officer of Lisle, Illinois-based OakBrook Investments LLC., said Dec. 16. Obviously, oil prices dropping are adding to deflationary pressures. We may see a rate rise next year, and we could see gold come under pressure as the dollar continues to move higher.
After rebounding 4.5 percent from a four-year low in early November, prices will average $1,175 next quarter, below the Dec. 22 close of $1,179.80, according to the median of 31 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. Goldman forecasts a drop to $1,050 by next December, while SocGen expects $950 in 2015s fourth quarter.
-
is it cheap oil dragging it down or strong dollar/supply? There was a point where the dollar was weak against Cannuck Bucks, Aussie Kanagaroo coins, the Euro. Now we’re on the plus side, except for the Euro but we’re way better than it was.
-
Hey Dan – looks like you were right about Gold fixing
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/banks-said-to-face-u-s-manipulation-probe-over-metals-pricing]http://www.bloomberg.com/…be-over-metals-pricing[/link]
[b]
Banks Face U.S. Manipulation Probe Over Metals Pricing[/b][/h1]
-
It seems like the hammer is dropping on banks with more regularity, although I’d still like to see some of these people in jail vs paying the fine/not admitting guilt.
-
Gold plunges back below $1,200/oz on strong US dollar and jobs report.
-
Wait………isn’t it at 3500$ yet?
-
-
-
-
-
