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Recession coming?
1. Crazy volatility in the markets
2. Gasoline going up
3. Inflation threats
Wonder who gets blamed for this recsssion Obama or Hillary
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919 Replies
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Dow is down like 600 points.
Did I miss a Trump tweet about steel?-
Just my observation
Everytime gasoline goes up and markets get jumpy we have a recession
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When the yield curve flattens $h1t happens.
The price to borrow going up is going to cost consumers more and probably eat some corporate profits. Treasury notes aren’t sexy but the 10 year is up at 3%. You can kind of see in car ads that the borrowing rates are going up. No more 0% for 60 month Camry.
edit: a quick google of yield curve and recession will show inverted yields is a darn good sign a recession is about a year out..-
gas has been going up–here in Cali –some places with 5 bucks
-you have to drive around to get the best deal-
Dan: I called recession Q2 2020 based on time after first rate rise.
Mid 2019 wouldnt be too far off
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Quote from sentinel lymph node
gas has been going up–here in Cali –some places with 5 bucks
-you have to drive around to get the best deal
No Costco?-
if Trump blows up the mid-east–Costco won’t matter
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We’ve been lucky in regards to inflation for a long, long time, hope we can continue that trend, don’t know if we can. The 70’s really, really sucked…anyone remember stagflation? Glad I have had zero debt for about ten years now.
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Quote from stir22
We’ve been lucky in regards to inflation for a long, long time, hope we can continue that trend, don’t know if we can. The 70’s really, really sucked…anyone remember stagflation? Glad I have had zero debt for about ten years now.
Since I see the ref to Costco and one inflation. The Costco hot dog deal has been $1.50 since 1985. It’s a pretty good dog too, Sam’s has a similar hot dog deal.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Quote from stir22
We’ve been lucky in regards to inflation for a long, long time, hope we can continue that trend, don’t know if we can. The 70’s really, really sucked…anyone remember stagflation? Glad I have had zero debt for about ten years now.
Since I see the ref to Costco and one inflation. The Costco hot dog deal has been $1.50 since 1985. It’s a pretty good dog too, Sam’s has a similar hot dog deal.
And Costco still has a $4.99 roasted chicken. They are both loss leaders … just get us in the door for a $1.50 dog then spend $300 on other random stuff. -
Quote from DICOM_Dan
Quote from stir22
We’ve been lucky in regards to inflation for a long, long time, hope we can continue that trend, don’t know if we can. The 70’s really, really sucked…anyone remember stagflation? Glad I have had zero debt for about ten years now.
Since I see the ref to Costco and one inflation. The Costco hot dog deal has been $1.50 since 1985. It’s a pretty good dog too, Sam’s has a similar hot dog deal.
And don’t forget that Rotisserie 3lb chicken for 5.99 (as many as you want) it hasn’t changed for a long time either. I think many on here are starting to cry wolf a little to early. As so stated… some inflation factor is past due.
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The Fed just came right out and said higher than 2% short term is fine. However, most of the number crunchers are watching the yield curves on the 2 and 10. So the math says 4 small bumps in interest is going to put the 2 year yield over the the 10 year. The last 7 recessions have all had the yield curve inverse with 1-2 years ahead. Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in a while which is possibly contributing to housing market decline. Our outstanding debt has gone up. Not that it’s going to change what I do much. i’m going to keep plugging away saving and investing. However, signs seem to point to recession sooner rather than later.
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Inequality a big contributing factor. Need to support unions again & living wages for everyone. These decades of race to bottom of average wages has taken a toll.
In this report, there were several troublesome findings that shouldnt be ignored. They make for a very compelling argument that Americans continue to struggle, and that a recession could be ahead.
Here are some of the findings:
27% of Americans have a family income of $25,000 or less.
40% of adults in the U.S. would either borrow, sell something, or not be able to pay at all if they were faced with a $400.00 emergency expense.
More than 20% of adults in the U.S. were not able to pay their bills in full.
More than 25% of U.S. adults skipped necessary medical care because they couldnt afford the cost.
28% of those with at least one credit card (83% of all adults in the U.S.) only made the minimum payments at least some of the time.
More than 60% of non-retired American adults think their retirement savings plans are not on track.
Five percent of non-retirees borrowed money from their retirement accounts in 2017 to pay for expenses. Four percent have permanently taken funds from these accounts. -
I think inequality is an insurmountable problem. The idea of living wage I think is great but it would take some kind of quantum leap to get there. Rising tide lifts all boats.
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Tides been out for decades. Since Reagan.
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2025, ticking time bomb within 1 year either way
all crises hit, the USD as world reserve currency may even be the inciting event. Enjoy another 6-7 years of fun boys, it’s not gonna last -
Quote from Frumious
Inequality a big contributing factor. Need to support unions again & living wages for everyone. These decades of race to bottom of average wages has taken a toll.
In this report, there were several troublesome findings that shouldnt be ignored. They make for a very compelling argument that Americans continue to struggle, and that a recession could be ahead.
Here are some of the findings:
27% of Americans have a family income of $25,000 or less.
40% of adults in the U.S. would either borrow, sell something, or not be able to pay at all if they were faced with a $400.00 emergency expense.
More than 20% of adults in the U.S. were not able to pay their bills in full.
More than 25% of U.S. adults skipped necessary medical care because they couldnt afford the cost.
28% of those with at least one credit card (83% of all adults in the U.S.) only made the minimum payments at least some of the time.
More than 60% of non-retired American adults think their retirement savings plans are not on track.
Five percent of non-retirees borrowed money from their retirement accounts in 2017 to pay for expenses. Four percent have permanently taken funds from these accounts.
The problem is that people like you can’t put 2 and 2 together. The growing size of gov’t and concomitant decrease in freedom, as well as an upper class that controls the huge gov’t with its wealth all lead to the growing inequality.
That you don’t realize this is the most sad reality and indictment of you, and your positions, of all. Seeing clearly and stating things as they are, and loving freedom have never been part of the left though. It’s all about power, and it concentrates as years go by, as they forget about all the lies they fed you. Throw in the blame game and we come full circle. -
I’m trying to think of countries with a minuscule or absent government and can’t think of a one that is an economic giant. Can you? I’d like a couple of examples of small government making their country an economic giant. Unless you can’t provide a single one.
Now you admire Putin. I’d say his government is larger and more intrusive in their economy. Yet you still admire Putin.
Yet his economy is smaller than ours which would on the surface uphold your argument about large government. But yet you admire Putin. An oxymoronic argument.
So your thinking is flawed. Or you are not telling the truth, just propaganda.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
When the yield curve flattens $h1t happens.
edit: a quick google of yield curve and recession will show inverted yields is a darn good sign a recession is about a year out..
[b]Fed raised rates yesterday, plans 2 more hikes in 2018[/b]
[link=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181569-fed-raises-rates-recession-risk-rise-response]https://seekingalpha.com/…ion-risk-rise-response[/link]
Check out this graphic.
[img]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/6/14/saupload_US-recession-probability-track-20140102-thru-20180613_thumb1.png[/img]
Since the Fed acted to hike short-term interest rates in the U.S. again at the conclusion of its two-day [link=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20180613a1.pdf]June 2018 meeting[/link], boosting the Federal Funds Rate to a new target range of 1.75-2.00%, the risk of recession will soon rise above the 1% threshold.
But perhaps more significantly, the Fed indicated that it would be likely to increase short-term interest rates in the U.S. twice more in 2018, near the end of the third quarter of the year and again near the end of the fourth quarter of the year.
If you want to get a good sense of where the recession probability track is likely to head next, you are more than welcome to take advantage of our [link=http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/04/reckoning-odds-of-recession.html]recession odds reckoning tool[/link], which is also based on Jonathan Wright’s [link=https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200607/200607pap.pdf]2006 paper[/link] describing a recession forecasting method using the level of the [link=http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm]effective Federal Funds Rate[/link] and the spread between the yields of the 10-Year and 3-Month Constant Maturity [link=http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield]U.S. Treasuries[/link].-
I expect the recession like we’ve been talking And I’m wondering how big a part autos will play. The cost to purchase is going up, borrowing cost is up, trade war means material cost is going up, there’s record level sub prime auto lending. 2 more bumps in interest rate I think might really slow down car buying. Should be interesting. Times have been good since cash for clunkers.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
When the yield curve flattens $h1t happens.
The price to borrow going up is going to cost consumers more and probably eat some corporate profits. Treasury notes aren’t sexy but the 10 year is up at 3%. You can kind of see in car ads that the borrowing rates are going up. No more 0% for 60 month Camry.
edit: a quick google of yield curve and recession will show inverted yields is a darn good sign a recession is about a year out..
Looks like the markets are paying attention this time. And with Trump roiling the waters of instability and downturn and trade wars, the markets panic.
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/business/yield-curve-recession-stock-market.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…sion-stock-market.html[/link]
The yield curve the difference between the interest rates on short- and long-term Treasury bonds is at its narrowest level since 2007, in what some see as an ominous sign for the economy.
Bond markets sent a stark message on Tuesday: The current economic expansion the second longest on record might not be long for this world.
Stock investors heard it loud and clear, and, along with confusion about the status of a [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/us/politics/trump-tariff-man-china-trade.html?action=click&module=inline&pgtype=Homepage]trade-war truce[/link] with China, it helped push the S&P 500 stock index down more than 2 percent in afternoon trading.
The inversion has always preceded the recession so you cant just pooh-pooh it and say this is some crazy forecaster who is telling us the world is going to end, said Vinay Pande, head of trading strategies at UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office.
Stocks also fell on Tuesday after President Trump added to uncertainty about the trade-war related agreement he reached with Chinas president over the weekend by tweeting a warning to China and referring to himself as Tariff Man.
The financial sector was one of the hardest hit segments of the market Tuesday, tumbling more than 4 percent. A flattening yield curve hamstrings profitability for banks, which benefit from a wide difference between short-term rates, which they pay to borrow, and long-term rates, which they charge their customers.
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Still looking at a year or so out on the recession. I was listening to some bloomberg on the drive in. If the fed keeps up the interest rate hikes the yield curves invert this year and the recession will be upon us 1-2 years after.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Still looking at a year or so out on the recession. I was listening to some bloomberg on the drive in. If the fed keeps up the interest rate hikes the yield curves invert this year and the recession will be upon us 1-2 years after.
I’m sticking with Q2 2020
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
I think inequality is an insurmountable problem. The idea of living wage I think is great but it would take some kind of quantum leap to get there. Rising tide lifts all boats.
American optimism and can-do is dead? I don’t think so. Stockholm Syndrome?
Addressing inequality would simply require the rejection of Republican economic theory since Reagan which has brought down wages since then. As Republicans (& Trump) have been saying for decades, American workers earn too much income to be competitive with the global economy. Funny, most of these arguments come from people whose incomes are multiples of the American median income. Somehow that seems a contradiction. Why are Americans so intent on pulling the rugs out from under themselves by supporting outrageous incomes for the select few? The Republican explanation is that we all hope to get there someday?
Yeah, pass the Kool-Aid please, I need to be intoxicated by some more self-serving fantasy explanations.
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/25/business/highest-paid-ceos-2017.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…st-paid-ceos-2017.html[/link]
A Walmart employee earning the companys median salary of $19,177 would have to work for more than a thousand years to earn the $22.2 million that Doug McMillon, the companys chief executive, was awarded in 2017.
At Live Nation Entertainment, the concert and ticketing company, an employee earning the median pay of $24,406 would need to work for 2,893 years to earn the $70.6 million that its chief executive, Michael Rapino, made last year.
And at Time Warner, where the median compensation is a relatively handsome $75,217, an employee earning that much would still need to work for 651 years to earn the $49 million that Jeffrey Bewkes, the chief executive, earned in just 12 months.
These stark illustrations of income inequality are revealed in the [link=http://www.equilar.com/reports/56-equilar-new-york-times-highest-paid-ceos-2018.html]Equilar 200 Highest-Paid C.E.O. Rankings[/link], which are conducted annually for The New York Times by Equilar, an executive compensation consulting firm. As economic uncertainty roils the country, the gap between top executives and everyday employees grows ever wider.
Its grotesque how unequal this has become, said Louis Hyman, a business historian at Cornell University. For C.E.O.s, its like they are winning the lottery year after year. For a lot of Americans, they dont have any savings. When they lose their job, they lose everything.
As much as these numbers reveal, they also hide, said Mr. Hyman, who in August will publish Temp, a book about gig workers and the proliferation of part-time labor. It all depends on who you consider to be an employee in this new economy.
In a good year, if the C.E.O.s pay goes up, does the median employees pay go up, too? Does the company have profit-sharing that goes deep enough into the organization that the median employee is getting equity grants?
Particularly in low-wage jobs, people are struggling to pay for housing, for health insurance, for child care, said Jennifer Gordon, a law professor at Fordham University. When people are working two and three jobs and are not able to put together a decent wage, then at a very basic level they dont have time to be active in their childrens schools, they dont have the ability to engage in their local politics.
The top layer of management live like kings and queens while the people at the bottom are scrabbling for a decent existence, Ms. Gordon said. We should not have that in a society where equality and fairness supposedly matter.Of the examples given below, note the compensation of the CEO vs the median employee income or their companies. Very interesting.
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/25/business/top-ceo-pay-packages.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…-ceo-pay-packages.html[/link]
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from DICOM_Dan
I think inequality is an insurmountable problem. The idea of living wage I think is great but it would take some kind of quantum leap to get there. Rising tide lifts all boats.
American optimism and can-do is dead? I don’t think so. Stockholm Syndrome?
Addressing inequality would simply require the rejection of Republican economic theory since Reagan which has brought down wages since then. As Republicans (& Trump) have been saying for decades, American workers earn too much income to be competitive with the global economy. Funny, most of these arguments come from people whose incomes are multiples of the American median income. Somehow that seems a contradiction. Why are Americans so intent on pulling the rugs out from under themselves by supporting outrageous incomes for the select few? The Republican explanation is that we all hope to get there someday?
Yeah, pass the Kool-Aid please, I need to be intoxicated by some more self-serving fantasy explanations.
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/25/business/highest-paid-ceos-2017.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…st-paid-ceos-2017.html[/link]
A Walmart employee earning the companys median salary of $19,177 would have to work for more than a thousand years to earn the $22.2 million that Doug McMillon, the companys chief executive, was awarded in 2017.
At Live Nation Entertainment, the concert and ticketing company, an employee earning the median pay of $24,406 would need to work for 2,893 years to earn the $70.6 million that its chief executive, Michael Rapino, made last year.
And at Time Warner, where the median compensation is a relatively handsome $75,217, an employee earning that much would still need to work for 651 years to earn the $49 million that Jeffrey Bewkes, the chief executive, earned in just 12 months.
These stark illustrations of income inequality are revealed in the [link=http://www.equilar.com/reports/56-equilar-new-york-times-highest-paid-ceos-2018.html]Equilar 200 Highest-Paid C.E.O. Rankings[/link], which are conducted annually for The New York Times by Equilar, an executive compensation consulting firm. As economic uncertainty roils the country, the gap between top executives and everyday employees grows ever wider.
Its grotesque how unequal this has become, said Louis Hyman, a business historian at Cornell University. For C.E.O.s, its like they are winning the lottery year after year. For a lot of Americans, they dont have any savings. When they lose their job, they lose everything.
As much as these numbers reveal, they also hide, said Mr. Hyman, who in August will publish Temp, a book about gig workers and the proliferation of part-time labor. It all depends on who you consider to be an employee in this new economy.
In a good year, if the C.E.O.s pay goes up, does the median employees pay go up, too? Does the company have profit-sharing that goes deep enough into the organization that the median employee is getting equity grants?
Particularly in low-wage jobs, people are struggling to pay for housing, for health insurance, for child care, said Jennifer Gordon, a law professor at Fordham University. When people are working two and three jobs and are not able to put together a decent wage, then at a very basic level they dont have time to be active in their childrens schools, they dont have the ability to engage in their local politics.
The top layer of management live like kings and queens while the people at the bottom are scrabbling for a decent existence, Ms. Gordon said. We should not have that in a society where equality and fairness supposedly matter.
Of the examples given below, note the compensation of the CEO vs the median employee income or their companies. Very interesting.
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/25/business/top-ceo-pay-packages.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…-ceo-pay-packages.html[/link]
We live in a plutocracy. Most all of the money is controlled by very few extremely wealthy people. I too think it’s crazy some of the salaries I see given out. Even the Wells Fargo CEO is making mad money and that company was a total cluster. I just don’t know what the stomach is to actually say this is a living wage it must be paid, and then CEO takes a big pay cut.
The other way we got the wool pulled over us is during the bail outs and Federal reserve. Bankers have no skin in the game and have continued to make mad money. All the debt burden was just shifted onto the american public. The rich get richer, the not so rich will split the bill.-
You argue about giving up. The Republican argument that an individual and a company/corporation are equal in the ability to negotiate is a lie. Collective bargaining levels out the playing field. Back in the 1950’s when unions were strong pay equity was more logical, the middle class could afford a life & send their children to a better education & life. That did not happen due to the magnanimity of the plutocracy.
The requirement regarding banks is regulation. Right now Republicans are doing their best to remove those regulations making banks responsible players; they are doing their best to remove consumer protection to protect us form corporate abuse like Wells Fargo, etc.
Corporate abuse is not limited to banks. Think of Enron manipulating the power market that placed a lot of financial stress on California while Enron raked in the $. Think of all the corporations who have abuse the system, destroying and dismantling companies, destroying jobs while they take the money. Even wonder why the company’s stock often upticks when company has layoffs for instance?-
Quote from Frumious
You argue about giving up. The Republican argument that an individual and a company/corporation are equal in the ability to negotiate is a lie. Collective bargaining levels out the playing field. Back in the 1950’s when unions were strong pay equity was more logical, the middle class could afford a life & send their children to a better education & life. That did not happen due to the magnanimity of the plutocracy.
it’s not really about giving up but it’s almost impossible to affect change. I can vote for someone I like but ultimately that person is going to be beholden to special interest. Unions can serve a purpose but they’re not always that great. Look at things like underfunded pensions, people retiring way to early, and just over promised benefits. Car companies before the collapse in 08 are an A+ example. I’d like to see change but like I said it’ll take the quantum leap in thinking. We can’t even hold the POTUS accountable for things that seem like outright being bought off. (We had issue with ZTE until China invested in Trump property)
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Unions are not perfect but they are almost always better than nothing. The municipal and state pensions are underfunded because the taxpayers wanted a free ride from their obligations, the exchange of paying public employees less than private ones meant a pension but taxpayers wanted both underpaid public employees with an underfunded pension so they could pay less taxes. Same for the private sector like steel, watching their business go under due to market forces and mismanagement with a fully funded pension plan for heir employees sitting there calling them; so they got permission to raid the pension funds & gave themselves awards (this is not banks now) for failing the business leaving the employees with no pension or a pension with pennies n the dollar that taxpayers had to pick and fund – for pennies on the dollar.
We get the government and politicians we deserve. Republicans don’t support Trump so much as they fear the voters attacking them from the Right, the voters who want a free ride, vote to get themselves screwed & then are angry they’ve been screwed. So they vote for more Republicans.
Go figure.-
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“the exchange of paying public employees less than private ones meant a pension but taxpayers wanted both underpaid public employees with an underfunded pension so they could pay less taxes.”
This is a great example of how you’re just a liar, don’t live in the real world, or just repeat liars you like, but have no idea about reality. In what world have taxes been going down in the most underfunded pensions? It’s laughable to anyone who knows about pensions, or cities with underfunded pensions.
Meanwhile, as Dan says, people are retiring at age 50-something (or did until they changed it precisely because they were so broke due to the math you clearly don’t understand) and getting paid for 30 more years at money they don’t need to just survive, plus all sorts of other benefits including expensive health care.
Do you have a critical thinking bone in your body or do you just watch and read liars all day long?-
So make your argument with some facts, not just invented hyperbole pulled out of your lower digestive tract. It’s very simple even for a Russian troll like you to find some real facts. But then trolls don’t give facts, do you.
But I see you don’t dispute private corporations raiding their fully funded employee pensions funds & then bankrupting them anyway.
BTW here, since you are either the liar yourself cigar/F@gan or just a downright ignorant rant:
[link=http://psc-cuny.org/clarion/march-2012/how-business-elites-looted-private-sector-pensions]http://psc-cuny.org/clari…rivate-sector-pensions[/link]
[i] [/i][i]Editors note: In New York state, anti-union pundits and politicians are demanding [link=http://psc-cuny.org/clarion/march-2012/unions-oppose-public-sector-pension-cuts]pension cuts for new public employees[/link]. They argue that private-sector workers dont have pensions this good, so in fairness, public-sector benefits must come down to the private-sector level.[/i]
[i]
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But as former Wall Street Journal [i]reporter Ellen Schultz details below, the erosion of private-sector pensions didnt just happen. It is the result of a deliberate transfer of wealth from workers to corporate executives and shareholders a pension heist, to borrow the title of Schultzs new book. The excerpt below summarizes her conclusions and details the recent case of General Electric; the book is filled with detailed accounts of similar maneuvers by other corporations.[/i]
[i]
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[i]The same corporate interests that attacked private-sector pensions yesterday are leading the charge to slash public-sector pensions today. For example, General Electrics GE Asset Management is part of the Partnership for New York City, a corporate lobbying group that is one of the loudest voices calling for cuts in the pensions of public workers (see[/i][link=http://psc-cuny.org/clarion/april/2011]Clarion,[i] April 2011[/i][/link]).
[link=http://www.sj-r.com/article/20130210/NEWS/302109932]http://www.sj-r.com/artic./20130210/NEWS/302109932[/link]What has happened is a culture and a willingness by past governors and General Assemblies to take a very short-term perspective on the costs of underfunding the pension systems, said Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation of Chicago.
In short, Msall said, It was easier to underfund pensions than not fund other programs.
[link=https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/102nd%20Congress/Using%20Public%20Pensions%20to%20Balance%20State%20and%20Local%20Budgets%20-%20The%20Impact%20on%20Public%20Employees,%20Retirees,%20and%20Taxpayers%20(1568).pdf]https://www.jec.senate.go…Taxpayers%20(1568).pdf[/link]
[link=https://www.economist.com/buttonwoods-notebook/2012/02/28/raiding-the-coffers]https://www.economist.com…28/raiding-the-coffers[/link]
THE New York Times has an excellent [link=http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/nyregion/to-pay-new-york-pension-fund-cities-borrow-from-it-first.html?_r=1&emc=eta1&pagewanted=print]piece[/link]today on how state pension plans are borrowing from their pension plans to fund their own pension contributions. This Alice-in-wonderland approach is a salutary reminder of the dangers of funded pension plans; they create a pot of money that politicians are tempted to use for their own devices. I have just been reading Ira Shapiro’s entertaining book, [i]The Last Great Senate: Courage and Statesmanship in Times of Crisis[/i]which recounts how, in 1978, Congress helped to bail out New York. The deal involved federal guarantees for loans made by local pension funds to the city; but it was interesting to read how William Proxmire, a conservative sceptic, wanted the pension funds to make the loans (albeit without the guarantees, if possible).
The problem with a pension fund lending money to its local government, or indeed investing in local businesses, is one of risk diversification. If the state goes bust, then it will cut contributions to the fund; if local businesses go bust, then state finances will deteriorate.
The real problems with pensions is that management makes promises for the future instead of delivering today, meaning instead of increasing wages today you are promised a better pension, thinking the problem is kicked into the future until it is time to deliver overdone promises. Then there is the issue of a large pool of $ laying around “doing nothing” that is tempting to use.
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/magazine/the-end-of-pensions.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…e-end-of-pensions.html[/link]
The amount of underfunding in corporate pension plans totals a staggering $450 billion. Part of that liability is attributable to otherwise healthy corporations that will most likely, in time, make good on their obligations. But the plans of the companies that fail will become the responsibility of the government’s pension insurer, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. The P.B.G.C., which collects premiums from corporations and, in theory, is supposed to be self-financing, is deeply in the hole, prompting comparisons to the savings-and-loan fiasco of the 1980’s. Just as S. & L.’s of that era took foolish risks in part because their deposits were insured, the P.B.G.C.’s guarantee encouraged managements and unions to raise benefits ever higher.
Congress has been debating legislation to fix the private system, but it has been unable to resolve a basic tension: anything it does to ease the burden on failing or failed pension plans lessens the penalty for failure and enhances moral hazard. By making it easier for, say, a Delta or a Delphi to offer benefits, it raises the possible cost of a future bailout.
In such situations, individuals are tempted to take more risk than is healthy for the group; economists, in a glum appraisal of human nature, call it “moral hazard.” In effect, America’s pension system has been a laboratory demonstration of moral hazard in which the insurance may end up bankrupting the system it was intended to save. Given that pension promises do not come due for years, it is hardly surprising that corporate executives and state legislators have found it easier to pay off unions with benefits tomorrow rather than with wages today. Since the benefits were insured, union leaders did not much care if the obligations proved excessive. During the previous decade especially, when it seemed that every pension promise could be fulfilled by a rising stock market, employers either recklessly overpromised or recklessly underprovided — or both — for the commitments they made.
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Pension funds can be fully funded. Some states do it.
[link=https://taxfoundation.org/state-pensions-funding-2017/]https://taxfoundation.org…pensions-funding-2017/[/link]-
Oh yes…let’s allow the banks to decide on which trades are in compliance.
“But the changes would alter how much time the banks have to spend proving they are following the Volcker Rule and give them more leeway to determine which types of trades comply. It would also shift the burden of proof for determining whether a trade qualifies under Volcker away from the bank to the regulators.
Now, banks must prove that each trade serves a clear purpose that goes beyond a speculative bet by showing regulators specifically how each trade either meets customer demands or acts as a hedge against specific risks. That had curtailed trading in a variety of assets like derivatives, corporate bonds and other complex products.”
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/business/volcker-rule-banks-federal-reserve.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…s-federal-reserve.html[/link]-
Deregulation – the future to guarantee winnninggg! (for the banks)
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The real problems with pensions is that management makes promises for the future instead of delivering today, meaning instead of increasing wages today you are promised a better pension, thinking the problem is kicked into the future until it is time to deliver overdone promises. Then there is the issue of a large pool of $ laying around “doing nothing” that is tempting to use.
Of course this is accurate, Frumi. But your lack of critical thinking astounds me. The politicians you continue to support do this and laugh all the way to the bank as they are already elected, rich, and have their own into retirement, going into the sunset while you complain into the wind. Meanwhile, people like you keep asking “what happened?” and even though you know, you lack the honesty to admit to yourself and others that you know precisely what happened, and what’s worse, you can’t really blame some evil other, such as the (R) … though you still try. It’s quite amusing, actually.-
Wrong again, F@gan, I never asked “What happened?” because I do know, the politicians and the capitalists raided the pension funds by “borrowing” the funds and then did not either repay the loan or even fully contribute to the funds that were made insolvent. The “R” promise is always to lower revenue so it becomes impossible to fund the bills forcing borrowing every time and the taxpayers buy into the lie because they want things for free too, let our kids pay for our sins. But it is your people who continue to vote for failure & then wonder why they are failed. See Kansas.
You act all puffy because you think you just discovered all of this but you’re wet behind your ears & still grow peach fuzz.
You are nothing but a preening blowhard like the Orangeman.
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Growth last quarter slowed and I believed was even revised down a bit
As for Predictions…. they are like arseholes…… everyone has one
Thats why I dont care to make them
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You don’t make them because you’re afraid of living and being wrong. Not everyone has one, or else you wouldn’t be so chicken scratch.
Only a few of us have good ones. The rest are scared. Sack up, kpack
Big banks will do well for a while, that much I agree on -
Hey! Peachfuzz F@gan, youre stil an immature hot air troll spouting empty sh1te.
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Quote from Frumious
Hey! Peachfuzz F@gan, youre stil an immature hot air troll spouting empty sh1te.
Don’t make me block you. This kind of stuff is ridiculous. And you call the president a clown, sheesh -
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/pimco-sees-flashing-orange-u-s-recession-signal-as-cycle-ages?srnd=premium]https://www.bloomberg.com…ycle-ages?srnd=premium[/link]
Pimco Sees Flashing Orange U.S. Recession Signal as Cycle Ages[/h1]
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I’m surprised it’s not higher than 30% in 12 months but maybe they have a higher percentage in the 12-18 month range.
Interesting note here because isn’t this a trend that would drive markets down. Essentially telling people to move to cash.
“investors should stock up on lower-risk, liquid assets to defend against rising volatility and widening credit spreads, saving cash for opportunities ahead” -
Come on boys, make some predictions, sack up for once.
There’s no recession coming, the numbers are super solid, actually right now. Trump Derangement Syndrome has a full grip on your snowflake soyboy arses -
[link=https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1231360-goldman-sachs-cuts-odds-of-a-us-recession] Goldman Sachs cuts odds of a U.S. recession in the next year
Goldman Sachs revised down the odds of a U.S. recession happening in the next 12 months, cutting the probability down to 20% from 25%[/link]
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Gotta buy the big banks
Cant beat them
Join them
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I noticed how you didn’t make a prediction, because you are too afraid to.
Recession isn’t coming until the time I said, next decade. Markets are going to soar til then
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Economists Worry About Possible Recession In 2020
A group of top business economists believes the major tax cuts President Donald Trump pushed through Congress will give a significant boost to economic growth this year and next year. But they worry that by 2020, the country could be entering a new recession, the AP reports.
Part of the drop-off in optimism reflects growing worries about what Trumps get-tough approach on trade might do to U.S. growth prospects.
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Quote from dergon
Economists Worry About Possible Recession In 2020
A group of top business economists believes the major tax cuts President Donald Trump pushed through Congress will give a significant boost to economic growth this year and next year. But they worry that by 2020, the country could be entering a new recession, the AP reports.
Part of the drop-off in optimism reflects growing worries about what Trumps get-tough approach on trade might do to U.S. growth prospects.
Do you agree with my mid decade prediction, or are you going earlier like these guys, dergon?-
Definitely earlier than mid decade
See all this volatility and look at history
One is coming
That being said this has no real effect on my long term portfolio positions
Will effect my short term positions to a degree
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watch the 2 year yield. It’s only about .40pts off the 10 year. When they invert recession with a year or so.(what Dergon said)
Also
– ineffectual government. Trump policy feels like whatever he thinks up while taking his morning dump
– GDP not meeting expectations, government borrowing up, tax scam might bite us.
– Housing markets possibly tightening, higher costs to borrow
– subprime auto loans are way up
– real wages are still lagging way behind
– gas prices way up
– income/wealth gap still high
– still at record level personal debts-
Figler is just putting emotions into his thinking
Recessions dont care much about your political beliefs
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Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke predicts a 2020 crash:
{The Stimulus} is going to hit the economy in a big way this year and next year, and then in 2020, Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff.” -
Quote from kpack123
Figler is just putting emotions into his thinking
Recessions dont care much about your political beliefs
that’s why I get predictions right and you just make 30 page nothing burger threads
shall I re-post all of your frantic “Trump is going to jail” garbage from the past year? LOL, come on man
You are so dishonest, you just don’t like that I get things right.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
watch the 2 year yield. It’s only about .40pts off the 10 year. When they invert recession with a year or so.(what Dergon said)
Also
– ineffectual government. Trump policy feels like whatever he thinks up while taking his morning dump
– GDP not meeting expectations, government borrowing up, tax scam might bite us.
– Housing markets possibly tightening, higher costs to borrow
– subprime auto loans are way up
– real wages are still lagging way behind
– gas prices way up
– income/wealth gap still high
– still at record level personal debts
This was also happening during the last admin and you didn’t post it. Any of us (including me, yes) has said that fundamentally everything you state is the case, and that the debt society and government monstrosity keeps increasing the risk of issues at one point or another. The issue is when, since they clearly kick the can down the road pretty well and the other curveball issue — the US has problems, but most world economies and countries are even worse in the socialist debt dystopias — thing is, there’s only one real place to bring investment now, the USA. Thanks to Trump and Congress lately. Another issue you guys are disingenuous about.-
People have always sought safety in buyin US debt. However, in classic fashion I read about the last administration when the claim is that Trump has accomplished so much. Trump has done well at furthering Russia’s agenda.
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I use the standard definition of “2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth”.
From a political perspective though, growth below +1% GDP often “feels” like a recession and has similar effects.-
Figler predictions
Gold 3500$
Dow 12000
Again predictions are like arseholes. Everyone has one
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Quote from kpack123
Again predictions are like arseholes. Everyone has one
You don’t have any. That are right.-
Im not a predictor
You on the other did predict
Gold 3500$
Dow 12.000
So maybe you should consider stopping
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WSJ: [url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-the-fed-set-off-a-recession-alarm-1528714800]
Will the Fed Set Off a Recession Alarm?[/h1] The Federal Reserves expected rate increase this week will take the yield curve one step closer to inverting[/url][/h2]
The Fed looks all but certain to raise its goal range on rates by a quarter point for the second time this year on Wednesday. There was a very good possibility it elevates its quote for absolute rate rises for 2018 [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-fed-will-move-to-rein-in-the-economy-1528380001?mod=article_inline]from three to four 4.[/link]
The difference between four and three rate rises can perhaps not matter much to investors, who expect speeds to maintain rising every year. However, it matters much for its yield curve, which is edging closer towards inverting, the situation by which short term speeds are significantly higher compared to lasting rates. Thats a long standing signal a recession is coming. -
I will give figler 1 prediction
This is the only one you will get from me
Buy a bunch of ATT soon…… put it on dividend reinvestment and come thank me in 10-15-20 years
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In fact
Even if you want to make a quick buck its down 5% today at the opening bell just because the market is price adjusting prior to the completion of the June 18 merger with Time Warner
Biggest no brainer this year
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Quote from kpack123
In fact
Even if you want to make a quick buck its down 5% today at the opening bell just because the market is price adjusting prior to the completion of the June 18 merger with Time Warner
Biggest no brainer this year
Finally, thank you for a pick/recommendation. Was that so hard?
In your time frame, the problem of course will be a huge market crash that the Fed won’t be able to get out of. -
Just saw a blurb on Twitter that Trump is threatening 200 billion in tariffs if China doesn’t bend. So I guess markets open down again tomorrow.
Trade wars are easy to win.
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Yield curve discussion hits the mainstream press
[url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html][size=”0″]Whats the Yield Curve? A Powerful Signal of Recessions Has Wall Streets Attention[/url][/size]
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1011172423906086913/O_i4lANg?format=jpg&name=600×314[/img]
[size=”0″]
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I was listening to Bloomberg p&l podcast on the way home and that is definitely getting attention. Markets are essentially flat or down. I forget who was being interviewed but essentially the thought is people are starting to look for safety but he still expecting record earnings and thinks home builders will still do well. Also looking at small caps which are less likely to be influenced by the Trump trade “policy”.
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My dad always said
Utilities……. people always need to turn on the lights
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Nowhere else to go but the US and equities. Markets will continue to soar. Other CBs have destroyed their bond markets.
Trump wins again. -
If you are in it for the long term thats probably true
Not sure that trump will win this trade thing though
Whats more likely is he will realize his policies arent working and he blames everyone else then reverses his course
Thats probably what will happen
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I mean seriously when Iowa farmers lose their soybean farms or a plant closes in Wisconsin those jobs are not coming back
I think the world realizes Trump is bluffing and has no back up plan
Once this gets ugly he will blame Obama or the evil dem snowflakes and he will cut run and reverse course
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Quote from kpack123
I mean seriously when Iowa farmers lose their soybean farms or a plant closes in Wisconsin those jobs are not coming back
I think the world realizes Trump is bluffing and has no back up plan
Once this gets ugly he will blame Obama or the evil dem snowflakes and he will cut run and reverse course
You keep saying all these things but not one has come true, and Trump is getting stronger and more successful.
It might just be that you don’t know that much. I showed everyone that a long time ago, now you don’t even consider it a possibility. -
The tariffs havent started yey
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Yet
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Why does the whole world specialize in tariffs, outnumbering the US dramatically, if they are so stupid/don’t work?
No one can answer that for a reason.
More Trump hate for being correct on yet another issue. -
Trump’s economic adviser disagrees.
Quote from Dr. ****er
Why does the whole world specialize in tariffs, outnumbering the US dramatically, if they are so stupid/don’t work?
No one can answer that for a reason.
More Trump hate for being correct on yet another issue.
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We will see how they work
Personally i think 30-40yrs ago they may have been OK but todays world is different
My personal feeling is Trump will cave on this like he did on the breaking family apart issue
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I believe the Canadian tariffs on the US start today.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
I believe the Canadian tariffs on the US start today.
Yep.
[link=https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-tariffs-canada-day-1.4730323]https://www.cbc.ca/news/p…s-canada-day-1.4730323[/link]
[blockquote] A number of U.S. steel products now face a tariff of 25 per cent, while a vast array of aluminum products will now cost Canadian importers 10 per cent more.
Canada’s measures come a month after the Trump administration imposed its own tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns.
Canada’s new countermeasures will also apply to a long list of consumer items, including American whisky, lawnmowers, yogurt, ketchup and maple syrup.
[/blockquote] -
Quote from Dr. ****er
Why does the whole world specialize in tariffs, outnumbering the US dramatically, if they are so stupid/don’t work?
No one can answer that for a reason.
More Trump hate for being correct on yet another issue.
what was the reason for the US not having as many tariffs for all these years? -
I just look at it and think they’re messing with industries. Like automotive is very connected to trade. We build cars here and might use foreign sources parts. Those cars might get sold off to the rest of the world. You start tinkering on tariffs and you end up costing jobs and extra cost get shifted to US consumers.
There’s a not too far off example of tariffs on steel actually being negative. Bush did steel tariffs back in early 2000’s and the hindsight was maybe that wasn’t such a great idea. -
Quote from jd4540
Quote from Dr. ****er
Why does the whole world specialize in tariffs, outnumbering the US dramatically, if they are so stupid/don’t work?
No one can answer that for a reason.
More Trump hate for being correct on yet another issue.
what was the reason for the US not having as many tariffs for all these years?
You don’t know?
This board disappoints me all the time.
It’s also the reason why I’m not a (R) and why Trump is the ultimate outsider, and should be supported by everyone. -
I read that as I think he wants your reasoning
Like why do you think the US has been for the most part against Tarriffs for most of its existence
Its not a trick question
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Of course with respect to the original tariff act of 1786 which was mainly just an early revenue source for a new government that didnt have a better mechanism
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Tarrif act of 1789
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Of course we get get into the the Reagan Bush policies which essentially created the power of the WTO
Funny how republicans used to call that Reagans economy
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Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from jd4540
Quote from Dr. ****er
Why does the whole world specialize in tariffs, outnumbering the US dramatically, if they are so stupid/don’t work?
No one can answer that for a reason.
More Trump hate for being correct on yet another issue.
what was the reason for the US not having as many tariffs for all these years?
You don’t know?
This board disappoints me all the time.
It’s also the reason why I’m not a (R) and why Trump is the ultimate outsider, and should be supported by everyone.
OH! WHAT A SHOCK! F@gan responds with a total non-answer!!!
HE DOESN’T KNOW THE ANSWER HIMSELF!
What a troll. What a Putin tool. -
I should clarify my above comments
Even though for the first 150 years the USA used Tariffs essentially as a national sales tax to fund the government there were some protectionist periods
But after world war 2 we have followed as much as possible anti-tariff pro fire and open market policies
After all isnt that capitalism at its essence
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from jd4540
Quote from Dr. ****er
Why does the whole world specialize in tariffs, outnumbering the US dramatically, if they are so stupid/don’t work?
No one can answer that for a reason.
More Trump hate for being correct on yet another issue.
what was the reason for the US not having as many tariffs for all these years?
You don’t know?
This board disappoints me all the time.
It’s also the reason why I’m not a (R) and why Trump is the ultimate outsider, and should be supported by everyone.
OH! WHAT A SHOCK! F@gan responds with a total non-answer!!!
HE DOESN’T KNOW THE ANSWER HIMSELF!
What a troll. What a Putin tool.
So the chamber of commerce/business class could benefit greatly.
Are you really this ignorant or mentally challenged?
It’s funny that you complain about corporations (rich, evil) but don’t even know why they are so rich, and argue against policies that would benefit the people you claim to care about.
As usual, it turns out that I know what I’m talking about, and you don’t have a coherent worldview. These posts clearly show it. -
Quote from kpack123
If you are in it for the long term thats probably true
Not sure that trump will win this trade thing though
Whats more likely is he will realize his policies arent working and he blames everyone else then reverses his course
Thats probably what will happen
Long term is a myth
You still have to be able to absorb the huge dips, the next one will be way bigger than 2008. One way or another, you have to have a pulse on the market.
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Quote from dergon
I use the standard definition of “2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth”.
From a political perspective though, growth below +1% GDP often “feels” like a recession and has similar effects.
Ok, fair enough.
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I’m sticking with Q2 2020, as noted earlier.
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Quote from dergon
I’m sticking with Q2 2020, as noted earlier.
What is your definition of “recession”
kpack can answer too, now that you guys are finally making some sort of prediction, (yay!) let’s actually define some terms, not this vague armchair stuff later on
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Quote from dergon
I use the standard definition of “2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth”.
From a political perspective though, growth below +1% GDP often “feels” like a recession and has similar effects.
Sounds like the text book definition. The current state of the economy just seems odd to me. The markets are still pretty close to all times highs, and there’s supposedly lots of jobs. I’m not sure how many people are sitting out. Wage growth is still depressed. Companies still raking in record profits.
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The growth is 2 parts, stimulus & growth continuing from Obama’s admin & 2nd part is additional taxpayer stimulus from revenue cuts subsidizing much of those record profits. Bad ROI for taxpayers since we are giving the 1% more $ from our pockets that we and our children will have to pay back the debt for our generosity to banks & corporations & CEOs while they is pretty & complain about taxes in spite of raking it all in while doing their best to keep wages and benefits low.
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Home buying too
Higher interest rates means decreases Home buying
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Higher interest rates were inevitable with the strong economy developing during Obama’s administration. It was a given. It is inequality and wage stagnation keeping people down.
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There are only so many skits you do in a reality show before it gets canceled
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Poor Canucks are going to have to start paying more for good ketchup or they can use that French’s garbage. Ketchup chip market will be in turmoil.
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[url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-18/u-s-recession-chances-in-next-two-years-top-60-jpmorgan-says?srnd=premium]Bloomberg: [/url] [b]JP Morgan sees 60% chance of US recession within 2 years [/b]
The U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, according to the note.
JPMorgans model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product. The banks gauge is more pessimistic than a recession tracker maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which shows a 14.5 percent chance of a recession a year from now.
[/QUOTE]
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Yield curve is .4 pts separating the 2yr from the 10yr.
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Orange one has already started to blame it on the Fed
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Quote from dergon
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-18/u-s-recession-chances-in-next-two-years-top-60-jpmorgan-says?srnd=premium]Bloomberg: [/link] [b]JP Morgan sees 60% chance of US recession within 2 years [/b]
The U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, according to the note.
JPMorgans model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product. The banks gauge is more pessimistic than a recession tracker maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which shows a 14.5 percent chance of a recession a year from now.
[/QUOTE]
Hard to argue, funny that this is almost 50/50 chance. Wow, great prediction. We are at the end of the business cycle, for anyone paying any attention at all.
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[url=https://www.newsweek.com/economy-us-donald-trump-president-1260825]Pessimism about US economy hits 5-year high[/url]
A new poll, released by NBC/Wall Street Journal on Sunday, found more adults in the country believed the economy was headed towards a decline.
Thirty-three percent of adults predicted the economy will get worse over the next year while only 28 percent believed the economy would get better. The numbers indicated a sharp flip in economic thinking around the U.S. compared to how adults felt about the state of the economy in January of this year when 35 percent predicted the economy would improve in 2018 and 20 percent believed it would get worse.
The pessimistic outlook on the U.S. economy marked its highest point in five years.
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DJIA was headed toward the “death cross”. That sounds sinister but essentially the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average. Supposedly another predictor of a bear market. The Fed also bumped the interest rate again today.
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The panic of the markets sure look like it’s trying to drive us towards a recession.
The DOW right now is same as Oct 2017 and still dropping further back and down.
The Fed said the economy is strong. Either the Fed is nuts or the markets are nuts.
I’m inclined to declare the Markets are nuts and race as a herd – looking for the cliff to run over en masse.
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Its the trump slump
Tarriffs, premature tax cuts, pulling out of TPP, alienation of our allies
Trump slump
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Markets going to go up, the economy is super strong, you guys still haven’t learned to filter all the media garbage you read, daily. It’s not surprise, since all you do is post umteen million pages of nothing burgers.
Add another 1.-
Notice how none of you tards even mention the rate hike, LOL, this is the most obvious reason but because you are so dishonest you can’t even post on the most obvious news.
Instead it is “Trump XYZ”
You are all so pathetic, it’s unreal-
About 3 or 4 posts up I wrote the Fed bumped the interest rate. Perhaps you should retract and your juvenile reply.
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Yes, you did, but you didn’t emphasize it and it’s the most important point. You are also lost in a sea of adjacent posters who don’t even know what a rate hike is or that it’s classically the most obvious mover of the market, at least short term. It’s just weird that you have that precise phenomenon and yet I have to read all this “Trump, blah blah blah tariffs”
or people can’t even understand that 18.5k to 23k is large positive increase since Trump was elected. Just brainless stuff.-
Quote from Dr. ****er
Yes, you did, but you didn’t emphasize it and it’s the most important point. You are also lost in a sea of adjacent posters who don’t even know what a rate hike is or that it’s classically the most obvious mover of the market, at least short term. It’s just weird that you have that precise phenomenon and yet I have to read all this “Trump, blah blah blah tariffs”
or people can’t even understand that 18.5k to 23k is large positive increase since Trump was elected. Just brainless stuff.
I mentioned the death cross and that the fed raised rates while talking about a down market. It was a pretty short post. The rate hike was announced yesterday and for sure it’s moved the market but my point on the death cross is that it is another signal for the bear market(maybe even recession).
Yes the DJIA is still higher than 18000. Doesn’t negate the fact that you responded like a pissed of teenager. -
Quote from Dr. ****er
or people can’t even understand that 18.5k to 23k is large positive increase since Trump was elected. Just brainless stuff.
Some people don’t have a grasp of math. Yes, the DOW went up almost 7,000 points since Trump came into office to its peak in early Oct, 2018 or 20 mos but has since declined over 3,000 of those points since the peak in only less than 3 months. And the slope is still negative and dropping. So it took 20 months to increase 7,000 points but only took 3 months to decrease by almost 1/2. It’s faster on the way down.
Suck on your Kool-aid F@gan. I’m sure it had nothing to do with Trump’s being “A Tariff Man” at all and announcing new Chinese tariffs in August and Sept.
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Rate hikes are not the most important thing
The tarriffs, trade war and pulling out of TPP letting China basically have the Far East for the future……..are what initiated this Trump Slump
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Pulling out of TPP was not smart
We ceded economic leadership to that part of the world for the foreseeable future
Dumb Donald
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Quote from kpack123
Pulling out of TPP was not smart
We ceded economic leadership to that part of the world for the foreseeable future
Dumb Donald
The Clinton-ite Chamber of Commerce pro business corporate welfare in kpack finally came out! Now I have proof.
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Quote from kpack123
Rate hikes are not the most important thing
The tarriffs, trade war and pulling out of TPP letting China basically have the Far East for the future……..are what initiated this Trump Slump
False.
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from Dr. ****er
or people can’t even understand that 18.5k to 23k is large positive increase since Trump was elected. Just brainless stuff.
Some people don’t have a grasp of math. Yes, the DOW went up almost 7,000 points since Trump came into office to its peak in early Oct, 2018 or 20 mos but has since declined over 3,000 of those points since the peak in only less than 3 months. And the slope is still negative and dropping. So it took 20 months to increase 7,000 points but only took 3 months to decrease by almost 1/2. It’s faster on the way down.
Suck on your Kool-aid F@gan. I’m sure it had nothing to do with Trump’s being “A Tariff Man” at all and announcing new Chinese tariffs in August and Sept.
So you don’t make amazing praise threads for him when it goes up way more than it goes down?
I’d say you were a bigger hack than I thought, but it’s just business as usual hate from you.
Ever heard of the market and business cycle? Or any other thing? I love how you just get to make stuff up as you go.
Are you going to apologize when the market is up from here, back to 25,000 or higher over the next few years? LOL
of course you won’t, [b]you disingenuous HACK[/b]-
Quote from Dr. ****er
So you don’t make amazing praise threads for him when it goes up way more than it goes down?
I’d say you were a bigger hack than I thought, but it’s just business as usual hate from you.
Ever heard of the market and business cycle? Or any other thing? I love how you just get to make stuff up as you go.
Are you going to apologize when the market is up from here, back to 25,000 or higher over the next few years? LOL
of course you won’t, [b]you disingenuous HACK[/b]
My, my, my, touchy aren’t you. “Business cycle?” Is that like solar cycles causing global warming? You use the words but have zero understanding of the words. You need more understanding of causes than a mere, “Things go up and down.”
BTW, my math is still correct as the DOW has dropped even more since my post, it is now 4,000 points down from its high and still falling.
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Worst December since the Great Depression
Thats nearly 90 years
It aint because of rate hikes
Its Tarriffs, leadership issues and a terribly mistimed tax cut
The republicans and trump should have saved the tax cuts until the economy slowed
Now there is not much else to do except put you head between your legs and kiss your arse good bye
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Quote from kpack123
Worst December since the Great Depression
Thats nearly 90 years
It aint because of rate hikes
Its Tarriffs, leadership issues and a terribly mistimed tax cut
The republicans and trump should have saved the tax cuts until the economy slowed
Now there is not much else to do except put you head between your legs and kiss your arse good bye
You’re not this stupid, haha, “Worst December”
I know you at least have an idea of percentages
As Frumi even had to admit, Market when Trump elected, 18.5. Market now, 22.5
More fake news from the alarmists -
Quote from Dr. ****er
As Frumi even had to admit, Market when Trump elected, 18.5. Market now, 22.5
More fake news from the alarmists
Misleading as usual. you are like the guy falling off the cliff trying to remind everyone he was, “On top of the world!” declining to add that was before he was falling. Fast.
Market was 26,740 & now it’s fallen by over 4,000, halfway down and is still falling.
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from Dr. ****er
As Frumi even had to admit, Market when Trump elected, 18.5. Market now, 22.5
More fake news from the alarmists
Misleading as usual. you are like the guy falling off the cliff trying to remind everyone he was, “On top of the world!” declining to add that was before he was falling. Fast.
Market was 26,740 & now it’s fallen by over 4,000, halfway down and is still falling.
Yes, and you didn’t post praise all the way up to 26k, you frickin’ hack
This is why no one takes you seriously. You just make stuff up as you goMAKE A FKKN prediction, clown. You’ve been wrong with the others for 3 years no Trump nothing burgers, why not be wrong again?
It’s embarrassing I know, but I expect you to say one thing, reality does the other. It makes me even more confident at this point. -
Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from Frumious
Misleading as usual. you are like the guy falling off the cliff trying to remind everyone he was, “On top of the world!” declining to add that was before he was falling. Fast.
Market was 26,740 & now it’s fallen by over 4,000, halfway down and is still falling.
Yes, and you didn’t post praise all the way up to 26k, you frickin’ hack
This is why no one takes you seriously. You just make stuff up as you go
MAKE A FKKN prediction, clown. You’ve been wrong with the others for 3 years no Trump nothing burgers, why not be wrong again?
It’s embarrassing I know, but I expect you to say one thing, reality does the other. It makes me even more confident at this point.
So sonny, you avoid saying what you are predicting besides, “Things go up and down…”
Very deep.
So what are you doing with Daddy’s allowance? you have it in cash in the quarter jar or you are invested in…what exactly? Stocks? What sector? Bonds?
How are your quarters doing? Or are you down to nickels and dimes these days?
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We’re losing a leadership position in the world in every aspect.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
We’re losing a leadership position in the world in every aspect.
Supporting dictators and enemies while alienating our allies and subverting alliances that have stood for decades.-
Quote from dergon
Quote from DICOM_Dan
We’re losing a leadership position in the world in every aspect.
Supporting dictators and enemies while alienating our allies and subverting alliances that have stood for decades.
I suspect we have been supporting dictators and f*cked up regimes for many years bc 1. It serves our national interests and 2. It’s better than the alternatives that would take control if we did not support these dictators/regimes-
But we never acted subservient to them & theygenerally did not murder subjects in broad daylight allowing no wiggle room. And we have never before pretended they were not criminals.
This is false equivalence. But that said & since you giveTrump a pass because we allegedly did the same before, what is your recommendation how to act? Total pass? Everyone is guilty about something so we all are innocent?
Thats a slippery slope. Realpolitik has its realities, Trump isnt one of them. Talk to Mad Dog, he knows the difference.
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My own personal gauge of recession risk … when my financial advisory starts sending out “what the ef is going on!? emails
After a volatile week that saw major indexes edging closer to a bear market, U.S. stocks extended losses on Friday amid concerns about rising interest rates, slowing global economic growth, a looming partial federal government shutdown and the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis.
Markets have become increasingly volatile due to concerns about trade tensions between the United States and China, tightening financial conditions, a worsening outlook for corporate earnings growth in 2019 and the possibility the yield curve could soon invert[link=https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/whats-going-on-with-yield-curve]which is widely seen as a potential harbinger of recession[/link].
…
{F}inancial conditions have tightened meaningfully this year, which tends to put downward pressure on stocks and earnings multiples, says Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders. Our cautious outlook persists, as we see increasing risk of a recession heading into 2019 and continued spikes in volatility and fierce pullbacks/corrections.
[/QUOTE]
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I would not be surprised at this time to see all the gains made during Trump’s administration lost. The only caveat is if Holiday sales prove very strong which would probably provide a rally but with the tariffs and trade wars and Trump’s constant pushing chaos, I don’t see an early rally staying long. Hopefully I’m wrong before the bottom falls out & we have a Great Recession II. Except this time we have no talent or moral courage running the government and finance.
How far will we fall in the economy and global influence?-
Quote from Frumious
I would not be surprised at this time to see all the gains made during Trump’s administration lost. The only caveat is if Holiday sales prove very strong which would probably provide a rally but with the tariffs and trade wars and Trump’s constant pushing chaos, I don’t see an early rally staying long. Hopefully I’m wrong before the bottom falls out & we have a Great Recession II. Except this time we have no talent or moral courage running the government and finance.
How far will we fall in the economy and global influence?
How many years will you post chicken little stuff while all the evidence shows the opposite?
Economy better than ever.-
Fa6er is actually Trump on AM forums. That might be the only explanation. All signs point toward a bear market and maybe even recession. Thing like death cross and yield curve invertion. Crazy trade war, unstable government, market sell off.
Yet you claim the evidence shows the opposite. What evidence ? What economists are saying things look peachy?
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Fa6er is actually Trump on AM forums. That might be the only explanation. All signs point toward a bear market and maybe even recession. Thing like death cross and yield curve invertion. Crazy trade war, unstable government, market sell off.
Yet you claim the evidence shows the opposite. What evidence ? What economists are saying things look peachy?
Make your [wrong] prediction then. And please post again saying I’m sorry, I was wrong, you were right. Which you won’t do, like everyone else who wants to hate me for telling the truth on these boards.
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Quote from Dr. ****er
Economy better than ever.
Wow, I want what you are smoking.
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Quote from denizen
Quote from Dr. ****er
Economy better than ever.
Wow, I want what you are smoking.
No you don’t. It’s synthetic.
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Things arent going to change much until trump is gone
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He single handedly blew up the recovery
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Quote from kpack123
He single handedly blew up the recovery
Prediction, please, clown boy.
You just run your mouth with nothing of accountability. No skin in the game. You’re like an astrology piece in the newspaper. Saying all sorts of stuff like CNN and hoping we don’t go back and call you on all of your fake news attempts.-
Like you F@gan, I predict things go up and down. Like. Limits change.
But Marjet things will continue to go down more. And climate things will get hotter more for a very long time. Probably wont get cooler anymore in your lifetime. Considering you dont shave yet, thats a long time.
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Like you F@gan, I predict things go up and down. Like. Things change.
But Market things will continue to go down more. And climate things will get hotter more for a very long time. Probably wont get cooler anymore in your lifetime.
Considering you dont shave yet, thats a long time.
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Figler
I predict you will change your name soon just like you did after your gold 3500$ prediction
Even trumps staunchest allies are running for the exits….. except you and the uneducated rural types
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Well the one thing we absolutely do know now is how Trump would react to a global recession the like we had in 2008 & it would not be good for the world. We also know his Cabinet is full of incompetents like Mnuchin who would likely cause a worse panic. This is the 180 degree opposite of how Obama and Bush and Paulsen & Bernanke & Geithner handled it, like adults.
So let’s hope the Markets aren’t spooked further & things return to some normalcy and the Man-child in the White House doesn’t F it all up – again. But then there’s still the trade wars so it’s wayyyy too early to expect normalcy. -
Did he mess up today’s +500 so far?
Did he mess up 18.5k to 26k?
You make no sense. You can’t answer any of these questions, because you’re all hype and emotion. It’s odd. -
Oh the wonder of your deep intelligence. Mount Washington, New Hampshire has a temperature right now of 11 degrees F and tonight will dip to -6 F.
Proves there is no global warming! Chinese conspiracy! -
When was the market 18.5k under trump
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It wasn’t. Dr. Incel is adding rise since election day, an additional 1,000 points. The DOW actually rise 7,000 points from 19.500 but has since dropped 5,000. Today might improve those numbers but the day isn’t over yet & there’s tomorrow for Chaos Theory to return to the Markets from Trump.
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My point exactly
If they want credit for everything then they need to accept credit for what has happened recently
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Dead cat bounce.
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Setting records! LOLOL, more haters lame posts
So one sided, you guys are pathetic
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Have you noticed Sonny? Figgie or F@gan or cigar, whoever you are, that the DOW is down again today as others have noted? It’s down to July 2017 levels now, losing a whole year and a half of growth. Like 5,000 points down from its high in September 2018 (BEFORE the Midterms you notice!)
So it took about 21 months to grow to its peak but after only less than 3 months it’s declined more than 1/2 & still falling thanks to your Bigly Genius in the White House.
Your boy is so worried he wants to fire Powell. Truth is if Trump wants to see the market reverse course, the best likely recipe would be for him to resign.
I’d bet the markets would rally overnight upon that news!-
Quote from Frumious
Have you noticed Sonny? Figgie or F@gan or cigar, whoever you are, that the DOW is down again today as others have noted? It’s down to July 2017 levels now, losing a whole year and a half of growth. Like 5,000 points down from its high in September 2018 (BEFORE the Midterms you notice!)
So it took about 21 months to grow to its peak but after only less than 3 months it’s declined more than 1/2 & still falling thanks to your Bigly Genius in the White House.
Your boy is so worried he wants to fire Powell. Truth is if Trump wants to see the market reverse course, the best likely recipe would be for him to resign.
I’d bet the markets would rally overnight upon that news!
Please tell me why this matters to you. Maybe I can get some sort of answer or post that is intelligible, for once. Go ahead.
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Quote from Frumious
Quote from denizen
Quote from Dr. ****er
Economy better than ever.
Wow, I want what you are smoking.
No you don’t. It’s synthetic.
It was bad stuff, apparently. Look at the apparent effects on the brain. No, I don’t really want it.
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Quote from denizen
Quote from Dr. ****er
Economy better than ever.
Wow, I want what you are smoking.
Again, please tell me why it isn’t. denizen, why is the economy bad? Go ahead, your floor.
I have given several reasons that support my assertion. If you haven’t read them, you need to read more and post less.
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