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  • Reaction to low volumes

    Posted by ivywilliams45 on April 1, 2020 at 8:41 pm

    We dropped partner salaries by 50 percent and encouraged volunteers to take unpaid vacation. Wondering how other groups are handling this. Not a doom and gloom thread just curious as to the response.

    sanad50_506 replied 3 years, 2 months ago 38 Members · 129 Replies
  • 129 Replies
  • savpruitt_28

    Member
    April 1, 2020 at 9:05 pm

    Same. Its pretty grim out there. Know of some mega-subspecialty clinics where they have furloughed all their PAs and reduced staffing by >30% and have subspecialty docs doing minor procedures, with a 50% pay cut to boot. So its hitting everybody really hard.

  • susquam

    Member
    April 2, 2020 at 4:49 am

    We have done a few things to try and cut costs.
     
    We have instituted unpaid vacation days that will be spread evenly among partners. 
     
    We have quit sending overnight studies out and are now covering that shift in house.
     
    We use to pay extra as internal moonlighting for certain higher level studies that would get read after hours. With volume drops those can now be read during normal hours and no longer getting paid for. 
     
    What we haven’t done is push any of this onto our employed rads. They don’t get the bonus during the good times and we are hoping to spare them from the bad times as well.
     
    We are in talks and exploring options under the CARES act and hoping to recoup some lost income but it definitely won’t cover all our losses.
     
     

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      April 2, 2020 at 5:09 am

      prepayments from medicare and private insurance, cares act will provide up to 10 million in forgivable loan to get businesses less than 500 employees through this (we have applied), bonus will be nonexistent, put off profit sharing retirement contribution. We have not furloughed any clinical staff but have furloughed >100 admin staff, we have not taken back night work as we want our night crew to still be there when this is all over. Looking at bringing back in some of our weekend excess volume which currently goes to telerad.

    • btomba_77

      Member
      April 2, 2020 at 5:14 am

      Quote from frank the tank

      [b]What we haven’t done is push any of this onto our employed rads. [/b]They don’t get the bonus during the good times and we are hoping to spare them from the bad times as well.

      Good man    

      • Melenas

        Member
        April 2, 2020 at 5:58 am

        Are any of you finding that the older rads (60s), who are probably avoiding coming to the hospital, are volunteering to take vacations (unpaid) and diverting some of the money to new/younger rads who have not had time to save as much as the older rads? Or is it pretty much sharing the load? No sympathies from the older rads who have lots more saved up? 

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          April 2, 2020 at 6:35 am

          Sympathies from older rads???? LOL.

          • susquam

            Member
            April 2, 2020 at 6:52 am

            Let’s not have another thread degenerate over the same old shit.
             
            Any other measures groups are taking would be helpful to all of us and lets try and keep the posts to that.

            • cieminsjohn

              Member
              April 2, 2020 at 12:40 pm

              Still waiting to find out changes.  Hope I’m getting paid to go into the office everyday. 
               
              Anesthesiologist neighbor volunteered for unpaid vacation time in his group. 

              • afazio.uk_887

                Member
                April 2, 2020 at 6:39 pm

                I think this bounce back of volume or even increase in volume after the pandemic is unlikely to materialize.  IMO, we are looking at a couple years of reduced volumes.  10M new unemployed in 2 weeks, which means less people with insurance and more people putting off anything elective / not emergent.  While the virus may pass in a few months, the economic effect will likely last several years IMO.  Radiology utilization in the OP setting will likely decrease for several years and the job market will cool off for a while.

                • forgottenegao_866

                  Member
                  April 2, 2020 at 7:33 pm

                  Agreed ^^^

                  Unfortunately the economic damage is gonna be 10-100 fold worse from all of this need to act

                  • Melenas

                    Member
                    April 3, 2020 at 6:22 am

                    My feeling the same Waduh Dong. 
                    I’ve been telling my group there won’t be a surge like people are expecting. The last thing they are thinking about is going to the hospital for chronic annoying things when they have to think about food and shelter and kids/family. 
                     
                    I suspect it will be about 6 months before things go back to the way they were. Unless there is a huge job market that opens up. Plus there will be intermittent shut downs as random new cases pop up. Remember the virus is out there now, hiding inside some healthy person, waiting to grab onto a sick/compromised person. That will lead to more random shut downs. Vaccines aren’t gonna be passed out any time soon even if they are available. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 3, 2020 at 7:17 am

                      Longer the shutdown, longer the recovery.

                      Not only because of unemployment and lost coverage, but also people’s expectations change. Before, people went to the doctors for the slightest sniffles. Over utilization. Now they will tough it out. The behavioral changes become habit.

                    • jtpollock

                      Member
                      April 3, 2020 at 10:06 am

                      This may structurally change healthcare for ever. It was changing dramatically before this, this may be the tipping point into all the stuff people have discussing for years.

                      To think this will V back up after a mini/real depression is idiotic.

                      Just think how many people will lose their insurance for good, you dont think that will have ramifications….

                    • ivywilliams45

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 5:46 pm

                      This got hijacked by people crying. What are groups doing in the short run is my original question.

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 6:30 pm

                      I’m amazed by the level of arrogance on this thread.  There are continuous debates by the best economists in this world over how much damage this will cause and the current consensus is that it will be severe but short.  Yet there are a bunch of non economists here displaying their recency bias of because its bad now it will be bad for years.  Learn to be humble and conscious of your incompetence.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 6:32 pm

                      Consensus is severe but short? News to me

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 4, 2020 at 7:17 pm

                      It is apparent how unimportant radiology is to such fundamental attacks on health care. Ground glass infiltrates etc; not the that relevant.
                       
                      The cleaning people are more useful than we are at this time
                       
                      We have value. But it is less obvious in such circumstances.
                       
                      Who needs a radiologist on a desert island?
                       
                       
                       
                       

                    • enrirad2000

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 7:42 pm

                      The biggest problem with the modern economy is that we live on credit. We highly depend on the next month’s income and keep expending faster than our income growth. No saving for the rainy day and too much expectations. 

                    • fun00n66m_267

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 8:14 pm

                      Even VIR volumes are down as I have had to reschedule many of my elective cases (fibroids/prostates/ claudicants/ Filter retrievals/ venous disease etc) .  The only patients we are doing are inpatients and outpatient oncology work including some biopsies , ablations, trans arterial work and ports.  Vascular work as far as critical limb ischemia for progressive wounds and some aneurysmal disease that meets certain size thresholds etc.   

                      We have been even asked to curtail our ordering of outpatient imaging (to urgent requests) given the preparation for what is to come. 
                       
                      If the surge comes, and OR space is limited we will end up doing much more of the stuff that was typically done in the OR.  
                       
                      Also, if things get really bad some of us may be redeployed to the floors or the ICU as needed.   

                    • fun00n66m_267

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 8:14 pm

                      Even VIR volumes are down as I have had to reschedule many of my elective cases (fibroids/prostates/ claudicants/ Filter retrievals/ venous disease etc) .  The only patients we are doing are inpatients and outpatient oncology work including some biopsies , ablations, trans arterial work and ports.  Vascular work as far as critical limb ischemia for progressive wounds and some aneurysmal disease that meets certain size thresholds etc.   

                      We have been even asked to curtail our ordering of outpatient imaging (to urgent requests) given the preparation for what is to come. 
                       
                      If the surge comes, and OR space is limited we will end up doing much more of the stuff that was typically done in the OR.  
                       
                      Also, if things get really bad some of us may be redeployed to the floors or the ICU as needed.   

                    • fun00n66m_267

                      Member
                      April 4, 2020 at 8:14 pm

                      Even VIR volumes are down as I have had to reschedule many of my elective cases (fibroids/prostates/ claudicants/ Filter retrievals/ venous disease etc) .  The only patients we are doing are inpatients and outpatient oncology work including some biopsies , ablations, trans arterial work and ports.  Vascular work as far as critical limb ischemia for progressive wounds and some aneurysmal disease that meets certain size thresholds etc.   

                      We have been even asked to curtail our ordering of outpatient imaging (to urgent requests) given the preparation for what is to come. 
                       
                      If the surge comes, and OR space is limited we will end up doing much more of the stuff that was typically done in the OR.  
                       
                      Also, if things get really bad some of us may be redeployed to the floors or the ICU as needed.   

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 4, 2020 at 8:46 pm

                      I think LPNs would be more useful than some of my partners. At least they can start an iv.
                       
                      The talk the last year or so was the demand for rads. How the tables have turned. Rebound; meh. 

                      We will see. In 5 years the newest residents will probably be at an upswing. The senior current  residents; tougher times. How quick and unfair. And so it goes. 

                    • cytek1

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 6:30 am

                      Uh we are still just as useful as ever. The ER still relies on us to function, as do the inpatient teams. Just because we arent as busy doesnt mean we are suddenly useless, we just need a lot less of us for a while.

                    • kathleen.hibler

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 6:39 am

                      Unless youre purely outpatient, It could be a lot worse than being a radiologist right now as far as medical specialties go

                      Talk to your friends in Derm optho or plastics if you think youre taking a hit right now

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 5, 2020 at 6:44 am

                      Tele is getting hammered.
                      Outpatient is getting hammered.

                      Combine the two. Tele + outpatient. Total decimation.

                    • kathleen.hibler

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 6:55 am

                      Well, teleradiologists have always been expendable.

                      Theyre paid a premium to work from home at an inconvenient time.

                      It should go without saying that they would be the first to feel the impact

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 5, 2020 at 11:28 am

                      Quote from AngryBirds

                      Unless youre purely outpatient, It could be a lot worse than being a radiologist right now as far as medical specialties go

                      Talk to your friends in Derm optho or plastics if you think youre taking a hit right now

                       
                      Our hospital canceled 80% of its surgeries. 
                       
                      Do you think people do back surgery (except for 5% of real acute cord compression) or knee surgery or hysterectomy or screening colonocopies these days?

                    • kathleen.hibler

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 11:31 am

                      No.

                      But people do still experience medical emergencies (Covid and non Covid related), that require imaging. There is a lower limit to hospital based imaging that is well above 0%

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 11:15 am

                      Quote from dergon

                      Consensus is severe but short? News to me

                       
                      Consensus of the economic projections from the largest financial institutions in the USA

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 11:17 am

                      Yeah … no

                    • kathleen.hibler

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 11:22 am

                      Its possible.

                      Italy is on the other side of the peak.

                      NYC is at the peak.

                      First wave will be done in those places by the end of April, with the rest of the USA lagging.

                      It will pop up again when quarantines are lifted, but the impact will be smaller and shorter lived in future waves.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 11:22 am

                      Ive been following the financial media closely over the last few months (for years actually…. its a hobby)

                      The analysts and strategists have been rapidly changing their assessments of the duration of the recession From v-shaped to u-shaped… and lengthening our their duration predictions further every week as this crisis rolls on

                      I would say there are a minority still holding to the quick snap back at the end of 2020 that we were hearing as the common view in early March

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 7:41 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      Ive been following the financial media closely over the last few months (for years actually…. its a hobby)

                      The analysts and strategists have been rapidly changing their assessments of the duration of the recession From v-shaped to u-shaped… and lengthening our their duration predictions further every week as this crisis rolls on

                      I would say there are a minority still holding to the quick snap back at the end of 2020 that we were hearing as the common view in early March

                       
                      No?
                      Current consensus is a 2 quarter drop followed by a gradual recovery. Maybe we have a different definition of short
                      If Congress passes an infrastructure plan, which they have recently discussed, this would also change this estimate
                      [b] [/b][i] [/i][u][/u][strike][/strike]
                       

                    • maedehbakhshandeh7077_885

                      Member
                      April 7, 2020 at 3:39 pm

                      You guys all remember back when the worst doctors had to worry about was obamacare?    Look at your paychecks now until november… elections matter. Competent leadership matters.

                    • Robbro524_990

                      Member
                      April 7, 2020 at 3:45 pm

                      So does a biological pandemic like a virus…

                      And so does the theory of relativity…

                      And so does gravity and the speed of light…

                      And all of the physical constants in the universe…

                      Most everything matters, of course.

                      Should we really blame any administration or leader for all the problems associated with this little bug? I’m skeptical

                      How ‘should’ the US have handled it?

                      And, I’m neither red or blue (politically), to be sure.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 19, 2020 at 7:48 pm

                      According to you the administration couldnt have done any better with this pandemic.

                      Why have a leader at all huh? If competence doesnt matter, why dont you put my dog in charge. He can bark as well. If that is the only thing required besides sitting on your ass.

                    • radiologistkahraman_799

                      Member
                      April 7, 2020 at 4:09 pm

                      Quote from IR or die

                      You guys all remember back when the worst doctors had to worry about was obamacare?    Look at your paychecks now until november… elections matter. Competent leadership matters.

                      You’re telling me Bernie or Biden would be better… ha!

                    • qi_si1988

                      Member
                      April 8, 2020 at 8:09 am

                      I’ve been thinking–if Shrillary had somehow won, she and her cronies would have jumped at the chance to nationalize healthcare as a response to all of this. And, when the emergency was gone…things would somehow, magically, never be allowed to revert.
                       
                      Not a super-duper Trump fan, but he beat the alternative.

                    • ranweiss

                      Member
                      April 8, 2020 at 8:20 am

                      This might suck for us – and a 50% salary cut for a few months, and realistically a (25% maybe) cut for a year or a few years after that blows.
                       
                      But keep in mind how much harder this is hitting our colleagues that are outpatient based surgeons, dermatologists, rehab docs, pain docs, and any other specialty based medicine that relies on outpatient procedures.
                       
                      Can’t even imagine what this will do to dentists. 

                    • sanad50_506

                      Member
                      April 8, 2020 at 8:23 am

                      My dentist friend in Philadelphia has been freaking ou. Last Monday he had 4 cases only which were emergencies so he could see them but yeah definitely not really working.

                    • henriqueabreu

                      Member
                      April 8, 2020 at 8:25 am

                      make no mistake, outpatient only radiology practices (yes those do still exist) are getting decimated.

                    • suman

                      Member
                      April 8, 2020 at 12:32 pm

                      Crazy thing about dentists is they have it even worse than other docs because tele-dentistry is prohibited by the cartel in almost every State (self-inflicted stupidity). Can’t even charge a hundred bucks to some patients with canker sores and abscesses over the phone.

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 8, 2020 at 6:36 pm

                      Quote from ar123

                      This might suck for us – and a 50% salary cut for a few months, and realistically a (25% maybe) cut for a year or a few years after that blows.

                      But keep in mind how much harder this is hitting our colleagues that are outpatient based surgeons, dermatologists, rehab docs, pain docs, and any other specialty based medicine that relies on outpatient procedures.

                      Can’t even imagine what this will do to dentists. 

                       
                      The consensus on this forum of non economists is similar to the most extremely negative economic projection.  The median consensus economists view currently is far less negative at a 6 month recession followed by a recovery of uncertain velocity, V vs U shaped.  Health care will be one of the fastest areas to recover.  This forum is full of recency bias, herding, fear.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 5:45 am

                      Quote from JTG

                      Quote from ar123

                      This might suck for us – and a 50% salary cut for a few months, and realistically a (25% maybe) cut for a year or a few years after that blows.

                      But keep in mind how much harder this is hitting our colleagues that are outpatient based surgeons, dermatologists, rehab docs, pain docs, and any other specialty based medicine that relies on outpatient procedures.

                      Can’t even imagine what this will do to dentists. 

                      The consensus on this forum of non economists is similar to the most extremely negative economic projection.  The median consensus economists view currently is far less negative at a 6 month recession followed by a recovery of uncertain velocity, V vs U shaped.  Health care will be one of the fastest areas to recover.  This forum is full of recency bias, herding, fear.

                      This is just one counter opinion, but I think it’s important to push back against the notion that the “consensus”  is only 6 months or recession.
                       
                      [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-economy-expect-a-two-year-slump?srnd=premium]Get Ready for a Two-Year Economic Slump[/link][/h3]  
                       
                      [b]U.S. economic policy needs to be based on a realistic forecast of public health policy.[/b]
                       
                      “It seems highly unlikely to me that the U.S. will ever have a mass testing, tracing and quarantine program in place at the national level given the polarization and lack of direction in the federal government. In the absence of such a targeted response, state and local authorities will have to rely on blunter tools such as lockdowns and social distancing to ensure that their health-care system arent overwhelmed. So businesses across the country will have to stay shut, and millions of people will remain out of work, at least until a vaccine becomes widely available and thats not expected to happen until the second half of next year, at best.”
                       
                       
                      __________
                       
                      Maybe we do get to big testing or a therapeutic breakthrough, but there’s no guarantee .. or even reasonable expectation … of a quick snap back.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 8:55 am

                      [h3][link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/imf-sees-world-economy-in-worst-recession-since-great-depression?srnd=premium]IMF Sees World in Worst Recession Since Great Depression[/link][/h3] The fund sees partial recovery in 2021 if the pandemic fades this year.
                       

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 8:59 am

                      One more anecdotal data point: My father was on a conference call with his wealth management group (which he happened to be the leader of way back when before he retired).
                       
                      They see the recession as “L-shaped”  and then making a slow “U” over multiple quarters.    

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 10:33 am

                      Quote from dergon

                      One more anecdotal data point: My father was on a conference call with his wealth management group (which he happened to be the leader of way back when before he retired).

                      They see the recession as “L-shaped”  and then making a slow “U” over multiple quarters.    

                       
                      You’re cherry picking data to try to prove your point as the consensus economic forecast and the stock market currently disagrees with your father’s wealth management group.  There are so many factors with a wide range of outcomes to consider when forming a conclusion that any prediction is uncertain.  However the most bearish ones are usually wrong as they are driven by recency bias and fear rather than data.  

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 11:12 am

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 12:04 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                       
                      This is so true. I am a bit surprised that your father’s wealth management group only thinks it will be a few quarters on the bottom of the U.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 12:09 pm

                      Oddly, I’m long term optimistic on GDP.  I think this event presages a significant decoupling of labor and industry from China, and over several years will increase US GDP.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 8:01 pm

                      Stock market is behaving like its going to be a sharp V recovery in 6 months. They know something we dont?

                      There is a huge disconnect between job losses and the market surge. I guess Congress and the Feds are again pumping the balloon leaving the common man dead in the water while bailing out too big to fail corporations who bought back their stock to pad CEO pay rather than save for a rainy day. Heard the fed is buying up risky bonds that no one wants to touch. Guess who is paying for wall street again? Fed has not excluded the possibility of buying stock in case the market falls. An unprecedented move. Free market my a^*.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 3:47 am

                       
                       

                      Quote from grama curizon

                      Stock market is behaving like its going to be a sharp V recovery in 6 months. They know something we dont?

                      There is a huge disconnect between job losses and the market surge. I guess Congress and the Feds are again pumping the balloon leaving the common man dead in the water while bailing out too big to fail corporations who bought back their stock to pad CEO pay rather than save for a rainy day. Heard the fed is buying up risky bonds that no one wants to touch. Guess who is paying for wall street again? Fed has not excluded the possibility of buying stock in case the market falls. An unprecedented move. Free market my a^*.

                       
                      yes
                       
                      imho, that is the primary reason for the disconnect between the equity markets and the real economy at present.
                       
                      also, I think the markets have reacted to headlines of lower death rates without fully processing that those estimates are predicated on multiple months of social distancing.
                       
                      We could have stocks stable/ mostly recovered if the Fed is propping up big business and buying equities while the unemployment rate remains >10% with broad loss of income for working people… that will leave radiology volumes significantly lower for longer.
                       
                       
                       

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 3:51 am

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Oddly, I’m long term optimistic on GDP.  I think this event presages a significant decoupling of labor and industry from China, and over several years will increase US GDP.

                      It’s a possibility. 
                       
                      But Americans will have to be willing to tolerate some significant price inflation if we want to have a significant rate of labor-intensive manufacturing brought on-shore.
                       
                      (Or, I suppose, willing to tolerate higher taxes if we decide we want to create programs to subsidize on-shoring)

                    • arg2626

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 4:59 am

                      There’s not enough americans who are willing to pick up these low paying manufacturing jobs. Our edge has been in the high technology industries and we should keep it that way. I think the coupling with China will continue whether we like it or not. Besides, there’s a huge yet untapped market in China with its rising middle class demographics, do we want to miss out on that?
                       
                      Its probably beneficial for the world to have better China-US relations. We don’t have to agree with their politics, but in this increasingly globalized world, it makes more sense to be friendly (These ideas are quite compelling in Yuval’s book “21 lessons for the 21st Cenutry”).

                    • DanielQuilli

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 5:56 am

                      Stock market up because theres trillions of dollars being dumped out of helicopters….has nothing to do with expecting an economic rebound. Anyone who owns a business understands this is going to be bad.

                    • julie.young_645

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 6:36 am

                      Quote from MRItech

                      There’s not enough americans who are willing to pick up these low paying manufacturing jobs. Our edge has been in the high technology industries and we should keep it that way. I think the coupling with China will continue whether we like it or not. Besides, there’s a huge yet untapped market in China with its rising middle class demographics, do we want to miss out on that?
                       
                      Its probably beneficial for the world to have better China-US relations. We don’t have to agree with their politics, but in this increasingly globalized world, it makes more sense to be friendly (These ideas are quite compelling in Yuval’s book “21 lessons for the 21st Century”).

                       
                      China just unleashed or through their own mismanagement, corruption, and/or stupidity, allowed to spread, a pandemic upon the entire world. And they then accused the United States of doing the deed, reminiscent of a two-year-old caught committing some bad behavior. And [i]then[/i] they threatened to withhold potentially life-saving medications. Very few will disagree with that sequence of events. This is a very serious situation that our own greed has accelerated. This situation goes far beyond agreeing with their politics.
                       
                      I don’t advocate waging nuclear war, but things MUST change. Let’s be real…China has been allowed to take over the majority of our manufacturing because their work is CHEAP. Basically, the Chinese utilize what we would consider slave-labor (if we were to look beyond the price tag), and we benefit. High tech, low tech, intermediate tech…look around your house and see what you have that ISN’T made in China. Sitting in my kitchen, my two Mac’s, and my iPhone, weather radio, Amazon FireTV Cube, cordless phones (still have a landline), remote control for my Korean-branded TV (probably not the TV itself), coffee maker, toaster oven, various pottery and glass items, as well as the little craft activity Mrs. Dalai and I are working on…all made in China. Major appliances are made in the US, including the Keurig. 
                       
                      Again, this isn’t because the Chinese make things [i]better[/i], but simply that they make things [i]cheaper[/i]. We have sold our freedom for cheap cr@p. 
                       
                      This is a wakeup call on many levels. We MUST bring back every single industry and product we have allowed to go to China. We have allowed pharmaceuticals upon which our lives depend to be taken from our control so they can be made for a lower cost. We have handed our LIVES to a nation with an agenda that is counter to ours (well, it probably parallels the wishes of Globalists, One-Worlders, and other miscreants). 
                       
                      But as MRItech’s paragraph hints, you can rest assured that we will forget 2020 as surely as we have forgotten 9/11/2001. Those whose PARTY was NOT to be interrupted will NOT tolerate $5,000 iPhones or $400 monthly prescriptions. For the moment, there are millions who would work at a repatriated factory, but as things get better, they will think themselves too good for manual labor. And so on. 
                       
                      We’ve just been taught a near-fatal lesson. But I guess we won’t learn much from it. 
                       
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:13 am

                      So what is the only way to fight China? Get our economy back open. If there is a war this is where it is.
                       
                      So what does that mean? Taking some risk of increasing the pace of COVID spread. So do we want to know the true CFR before we make that decision? Would our decision be any different if it was 3%, 1% or 0.1%?
                       
                      People are talking about the war against the virus. Its too early to say on that front. 
                       
                      What if we were presented with a scenario that said terrorists are going to attack us and they will kill tens of thousands. We cant stop them but we know what they really want is the fear. The fear that is enough to stop going about our daily lives. Shut down our economy.

                      So the first part comes true. Then intelligence learns we can fight the terror but it will likely cost us us 1/1000 lives of those that choose to fight. We will need hundreds of thousands of fighters. Or we could just stay hiding hoping they stop. 
                       
                      Then after the initial wave the terrorists tell us we better keep to ourselves and not restart the economy because they will just kill again.
                       
                      How would we respond?

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:34 am

                      I cant believe smart people can be so naive. China has been allowed to take over our manufacturing?? Is it too hurtful to the American psyche to admit the fact that we were actually sold out by our very own American corporations to the lowest bidder who could maximize their profit margins? Our own politicians were lobbied and their campaigns infused with cash for looking the other way while the jobs were moved overseas and trade deals that shafted the American worker were signed by the left and right.

                      It is this collective ignorance that politicians exploit with racist and tribal rhetoric directed at someone who looks different, in order to divert attention from the real enemy within.

                      Too bad people cant see the coronavirus, otherwise our great leader may have succeeded in racial branding of the virus.

                      We need to snip the link between money and politics to fix every problem in this country. Is it going to happen? No. Why? Because we are collectively an ignorant bunch, just like every other populace in the world that gets shafted by politicians.

                    • julie.young_645

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 9:02 am

                      Quote from grama curizon

                      I cant believe smart people can be so naive. China has been allowed to take over our manufacturing?? Is it too hurtful to the American psyche to admit the fact that we were actually sold out by our very own American corporations to the lowest bidder who could maximize their profit margins? Our own politicians were lobbied and their campaigns infused with cash for looking the other way while the jobs were moved overseas and trade deals that shafted the American worker were signed by the left and right.

                      It is this collective ignorance that politicians exploit with racist and tribal rhetoric directed at someone who looks different, in order to divert attention from the real enemy within.

                      Too bad people cant see the coronavirus, otherwise our great leader may have succeeded in racial branding of the virus.

                      We need to snip the link between money and politics to fix every problem in this country. Is it going to happen? No. Why? Because we are collectively an ignorant bunch, just like every other populace in the world that gets shafted by politicians.

                       
                      I’m not totally certain if your rant agrees or disagrees with my rant.
                       
                      Either way, let me make something clear. My beef is with the government of China, not the Chinese people. DON’T call this (or me) RACIST. Doesn’t apply. I really don’t care if that particular nation is comprised of lilly-white blonde-haired-blue-eyed folks, black folks, yellow folks, or green folks. Their policies, and our willingness to sell out to them, has brought us to our current situation. It NEEDS to change, but it likely won’t. Too much money to be made, too much power to be leveraged, too many ready to mindlessly bleat “RACIST!!!”

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 9:24 am

                      [link=https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/09/japan-ditches-china-in-multi-billion-dollar-coronavirus-shakeout/#7965d0d55341]https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/09/japan-ditches-china-in-multi-billion-dollar-coronavirus-shakeout/#7965d0d55341[/link]
                       
                      DD,
                       
                      I think I disagree with your view on the likelihood of decoupling, though I can understand what youre saying.
                       
                      Money talks, true.  But there are all sorts of ways to change incentives with money, as Japan is demonstrating.

                    • julie.young_645

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 10:48 am

                      So you think we could/would decouple? I certainly hope you are correct.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 4:50 pm

                      Quote from DoctorDalai

                      So you think we could/would decouple? I certainly hope you are correct.

                       
                      DD, 
                       
                      Saw this on Twitter today.  Pretty awesome idea.  This would be big boost to decoupling: labor labels for food/pharma/manufacturing.  Principal is the same as nutrition labels for food.  Instead of calories, you see what percentage of the manufacturing and materials came from China.
                       
                      [link=https://twitter.com/jimarmstrongvc/status/1248425604006834178/photo/1]https://twitter.com/jimarmstrongvc/status/1248425604006834178/photo/1[/link]

                    • julie.young_645

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 5:28 pm

                      Thanks, radgrinder. But I have to ask…do you think the American public will tolerate $4,000 iPhones? Will unions negotiate in good faith to reach reasonable wages that don’t instantly drive manufacturing to cheaper labor?
                       
                      I certainly hope so.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 6:16 pm

                      DD,

                      No, they wont tolerate $4,000 iPhones.

                      But at 15-20% unemployment, will they tolerate $1,000 iPhones?

                      Lets extend the labor label thing. What if you were choosing between two phones. One is an Apple, the other is Samsung. You like Apple products, the price tags are roughly the same. On the back you see a labor label saying that 25% of the labor of the iPhone was made courtesy of Prisoner 1542 in a Chinese gulag. Oh, and while Apple was relying on cheap and forced foreign work, half your buddies are unemployed.

                      Now, exactly what do you think the odds are that any of the folks in Silicon Valley, or anywhere, are going to be able to sustain operations with that kind of blowback?

                      Nah. We can tariff them crap out of the Chinese government, and who cares if they tariff us back. We survived a shutdown, we can survive their tariffs. Then we can shame the heck out of any company that does business with them with labor labels and the like. Finally, we will follow the Japanese example and offer monetary incentives for companies to move back here.

                      The West beat the last communist regime in the Cold War by outspending them into submission. We could do it again.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 3:22 pm

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Nah. We can tariff them crap out of the Chinese government, and who cares if they tariff us back. We survived a shutdown, we can survive their tariffs. Then we can shame the heck out of any company that does business with them with labor labels and the like. Finally, we will follow the Japanese example and offer monetary incentives for companies to move back here.

                      The West beat the last communist regime in the Cold War by outspending them into submission. We could do it again.

                       
                      Pay companies to move back here? What an idea! I see you think deeply about such matters.
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 3:25 pm

                      I detect sarcasm but no counterargument.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 3:48 pm

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      I detect sarcasm but no counterargument.

                      Not only should we not pay them but they should pay their taxes.
                       
                      Double Irish with a Dutch sandwich anyone?
                       
                      The [b]Double Irish[/b] is a base erosion and profit shifting (“BEPS”) corporate tax tool, used mostly by US multinationals since the late 1980s, to avoid corporate taxation on most nonU.S. profits. It is the largest tax avoidance tool in history.- wiki

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 3:57 pm

                      Thats weird.
                       
                      If the companies move jobs back to the US, they will need to employ US workers.  Of which there will likely be many available, due to rising unemployment.
                       
                      Those workers would presumably pay US income taxes based upon the labor they are doing in the US.  Labor that they werent doing before, because the companies were not here.  Those workers will also pay additional state income taxes, sales taxes, and so on.  Furthermore, those same workers will not be collecting unemployment checks, and may be on company insurance plans rather than relying upon state or charity care.
                       
                      And we did lower the corporate tax rate.  
                       
                      There are also the emotional, social, security and psychological benefits of decoupling important industries from China and doing the work here.  
                       
                      Aside from that though, I think the financial benefit received from taxing the labor of employees and their subsequent consumerism and avoiding the financial hit of paying unemployment justifies paying the companies to move on that basis alone.  And yeah, tax the corporations themselves at the usual rate.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 8:14 pm

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Thats weird.

                      If the companies move jobs back to the US, they will need to employ US workers.  Of which there will likely be many available, due to rising unemployment.

                      Those workers would presumably pay US income taxes based upon the labor they are doing in the US.  Labor that they werent doing before, because the companies were not here.  Those workers will also pay additional state income taxes, sales taxes, and so on.  Furthermore, those same workers will not be collecting unemployment checks, and may be on company insurance plans rather than relying upon state or charity care.

                      And we did lower the corporate tax rate.  

                      There are also the emotional, social, security and psychological benefits of decoupling important industries from China and doing the work here.  

                      Aside from that though, I think the financial benefit received from taxing the labor of employees and their subsequent consumerism and avoiding the financial hit of paying unemployment justifies paying the companies to move on that basis alone.  And yeah, tax the corporations themselves at the usual rate.

                      Multinational corporations use intellectual property (IP) to avoid taxes on a massive scale, by transferring their IP to tax havens for artificially low prices. … Multinationals’ tax-avoidance strategies rely on undervaluing their IP.
                       
                      If radiology AI ever sees the light of day you can bet the IP rights will be transferred to a Bermuda or Cayman company at low price. LOL

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 8:52 pm

                      Quote from drad123

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Thats weird.

                      If the companies move jobs back to the US, they will need to employ US workers.  Of which there will likely be many available, due to rising unemployment.

                      Those workers would presumably pay US income taxes based upon the labor they are doing in the US.  Labor that they werent doing before, because the companies were not here.  Those workers will also pay additional state income taxes, sales taxes, and so on.  Furthermore, those same workers will not be collecting unemployment checks, and may be on company insurance plans rather than relying upon state or charity care.

                      And we did lower the corporate tax rate.  

                      There are also the emotional, social, security and psychological benefits of decoupling important industries from China and doing the work here.  

                      Aside from that though, I think the financial benefit received from taxing the labor of employees and their subsequent consumerism and avoiding the financial hit of paying unemployment justifies paying the companies to move on that basis alone.  And yeah, tax the corporations themselves at the usual rate.

                      Multinational corporations use intellectual property (IP) to avoid taxes on a massive scale, by transferring their IP to tax havens for artificially low prices. … Multinationals’ tax-avoidance strategies rely on undervaluing their IP.

                      If radiology AI ever sees the light of day you can bet the IP rights will be transferred to a Bermuda or Cayman company at low price. LOL

                       
                      So?  This is a weird conversation.  I’m talking about moving manufacturing facilities back, which employ thousands of American workers, whose wages are then either taxed or spent upon items in the local economy like real estate, or goods and services from the stores in town.  Those stores and their employees then make purchases, are taxed again, and the initial government investment in moving the manufacturing facility to US soil is quickly made up in that tax revenue, to say nothing of the societal benefits of more people having jobs.
                       
                      If you want to close some corporate tax haven loopholes, sure, that can be done too at the same time we are incentivizing bringing home jobs.  We are allowed to walk and chew gum at the same time.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:05 pm

                      Quote from Dr Dalai
                      I’m not totally certain if your rant agrees or disagrees with my rant.

                      Either way, let me make something clear. My beef is with the government of China, not the Chinese people. DON’T call this (or me) RACIST. Doesn’t apply. I really don’t care if that particular nation is comprised of lilly-white blonde-haired-blue-eyed folks, black folks, yellow folks, or green folks. Their policies, and our willingness to sell out to them, has brought us to our current situation. It NEEDS to change, but it likely won’t. Too much money to be made, too much power to be leveraged, too many ready to mindlessly bleat “RACIST!!!”

                      “Je Suis Juif, Je Suis Charlie”

                      I never called you racist or anyone else here. If you read my post I blamed politicians for using racist rhetoric to divert attention from their corporate masters that shifted jobs overseas. And I do believe attacking China is naive because the same corporations would just as easily shift operations to another low cost country rather than bring jobs back here. The cost of labor is prohibitively high in comparison to – say someone in Vietnam. The jobs that do come back will be highly automated manufacturing jobs that need few people to operate machinery.
                      Unless congress mandates that goods have to be made in the west, the corporate guys will never do it.
                      We are too scared to be called socialist if we talk about the carnage toxic corporate culture has done to the US in the last 20-30 years.
                      As radiologists your understanding of this culture will hit home if you are a private equity or PP employed radiologist who has slogged hard for his employer with good work ethics, but is let go within weeks of this pandemic hitting, without any benefits for you or your family, waiting for unemployment handouts. People may say this is the working of free markets/ demand supply. But we have to move towards humane capitalism that preserves the worker and the environment. Enough of this version of capitalism, which is probably about 5000 yrs old by now.

                      There is my complete, off topic rant but I pride myself for the ability to think beyond the first simplistic explanation or solution that pops into the mind. Blame China for all your troubles. Believe me , I am no fan of China.

                    • julie.young_645

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:15 pm

                      Oh, Lord. “Humane Capitalism”? Well, that would be a nice thing, wouldn’t it?

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 11, 2020 at 8:38 am

                      Robert Kaplan, head of the Dallas Fed, sees unemployment quickly going to the mid-teens, below 10% at maybe 7-8% by year end 2020, and then a slog through 2021 getting the unemployment rate down further.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 11, 2020 at 9:05 am

                      Dergon,
                       
                      How would you feel about that?  
                       
                      I have disagreements about how Trump has handled things.  But.  If he changed course from earlier dismissals of the virus to closing airports and then shutting down the economy while listening to Fauci, et al, and dropping the projected COVID deaths from somewhere in the millions to less than 60,000 AND THEN rebooted a comatose economy within months to the extent that the head of the Dallas Fed projects…
                       
                      I mean…thats a top echelon demonstration of presidential leadership by any historical measure, a massive boon to the country and almost certainly a prelude to a landslide election victory.
                       
                      If a massive benefit to the country resulted in Trumps reelection, would you make that trade?
                       
                       

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 11, 2020 at 10:46 am

                      I wouldn’t vote for him … ever …
                       
                      But if Trump had taken bold steps in January 2020, ramping up testing by nationalizing pharma industries, taking over companies to make PPE, closed down the country and initiated an aggressive testing, quarantine and tracing program that ended up with only a couple of thousand deaths and allowed for a fast re-opening of the economy with little economic disruption, despite the fact that it was at the time politically unpopular and went against some of the vested interests of his supporters…and calmed and united the nation with gracious, calm and bipartisan leadership … and then he subsequently got credit for that bold and effective leadership and won re-elect on that … well, I don’t have to worry about that hypothetical. … because Trump did pretty much the opposite of all of that. 
                       
                       
                      ____
                       
                      We are where we are … a late response from an ill-prepared leader which leaves us with only bad economic/public health trade-offs to make.
                       
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 11, 2020 at 10:51 am

                      Thanks dergon. That told me everything I need to know.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 13, 2020 at 4:57 am

                      [b]The Collapse Is Upon Us[/b][/h1]  
                       
                       
                      [link=https://www.brookings.edu/research/april-2020-update-to-tiger-the-coronavirus-collapse-is-upon-us/]Brookings/Financial Times[/link]: The world economy is facing its most severe challenge of the postwar period. Economic activity, financial markets, and private sector confidence are all collapsing. The latest update of the Brookings-Financial Times Tiger index (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery), based on the most recent available data and estimates of real-time data, shows the front end of this collapse and suggests that much worse is to come
                       
                      In any event, the combined public health and economic crisis makes a rapid recovery less likely. Demand has been ravaged, there are extensive disruptions to manufacturing supply chains, and a financial crisis is unfolding simultaneously. Unlike the 2008-09 crisis that was triggered by liquidity shortages in financial markets, the crisis now unfolding involves more fundamental solvency issues for many firms and industries beyond finance.

                       

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 14, 2020 at 6:17 am

                      JP Morgan head Jamie Dimon says he expects US economy won’t reopen until “June, July or August”

                    • jtpollock

                      Member
                      April 14, 2020 at 8:20 am

                      Jp Morgan also predicted a resurgence of the virus in November. So back to work limited in May, most June, then rolling lockdowns through this year. High density areas will experience the most rolling lockdowns. A practice in those areas probably wont see a return to normal volume for a while.

                      Reaction: furlough who you can, tell debt and landlord you want a 90 day forebeanace, cancel service contracts go parts/time. Assume 50% less volume this year.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 14, 2020 at 8:43 am

                      I agree that the economic recovery will be very sluggish but it’s not because of rolling lockdowns. Economic activity had fallen off a cliff even before most communities went into full lockdown. Restaurants were half capacity or less etc.
                       
                      Once things are opened the call will switch from dammit everybody stay home to dammit every go out and spend money. Most will be so conditioned to the fear induced from the first call they will refuse the second.
                       
                      The only way we get back to a new normal relatively quickly is if those in charge are willing to admit that they were wrong about the overall threat of the virus. Odds of that happening?

                    • katiemckee84_223

                      Member
                      April 14, 2020 at 8:53 am

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Thanks dergon. That told me everything I need to know.

                       
                      Exactly. His lack of understanding of the basics of life and politics is breathtaking. It is odd how frequently he posts articles/op-eds from the anti defamation league too.

                    • julie.young_645

                      Member
                      April 14, 2020 at 10:07 am

                       I just had to peek at the blocked IB’s post, and what do I find? An anti-Semitic taunt. 
                       
                      I have asked Brian to remove this 17th incarnation of Cigar for repeated anti-semitic remarks. I’ve had it. 
                       
                      If you all want this board to be comprised only of the extremes, FAR Right and FAR Left, so be it, but that leaves no place for the majority of us who exists closer to the center. 

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 14, 2020 at 10:18 am

                      OK…now I have to look too.  It’s not only anti-semtic but a personal attack on me. Great.
                       
                      ______
                       
                      Dalai, it’s clear that you just  don’t understand. Referencing the work of the Anti Defamation league makes [b]me[/b] the racist!   
                       
                      #rollseyes.
                       
                       

                    • suman

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 11:53 am

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      I think this event presages a significant decoupling of labor and industry from China, and over several years will increase US GDP.

                      We can also cancel the debts owned to China. Others countries will follow, Japan can have China pay for cancelled Olympics that way. Europeans would be happy as their economic struggles have been a drag for years.

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:20 am

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                       
                      The stock market leads the economy

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:40 am

                      Quote from JTG

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                      The stock market leads the economy

                      Roughly. .. most of the time … with a variable degree of lag
                       
                      But I would argue that right now that relationship is distorted beyond recognition because of massive liquidity pumped by the federal reserve causing equity prices to rise unrelated to current or even forward looking GDP.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 7:40 am

                      Quote from JTG

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                      The stock market leads the economy

                      Roughly. .. most of the time … with a variable degree of lag
                       
                      But I would argue that right now that relationship is distorted beyond recognition because of massive liquidity pumped by the federal reserve causing equity prices to rise unrelated to current or even forward looking GDP.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 11:10 am

                      Quote from JTG

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                      The stock market leads the economy

                      Sort of and certain times more than others. In normal times it trends on estimates of analysts and poll takers about where corporate earnings are going and how consumer sentiment is trending. 
                       
                      Now are not normal times. Right now it is more about emotion. There is excitement when the numbers look better, a massive cash infusion is coming from the government. It is completely discounting forward corporate earnings. Can that maintain itself? For a period of time yes. The good news better continue though. The most important being good COVID numbers and a response of opening the economy at least to some degree. 
                       
                      From what I am seeing so far there is not anyone willing to take the bold move of relaxing SD. I would get ready for the next wave of sell offs once we learn we have to stay locked in through at least May. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 11:17 am

                      DD,

                      We can do anything if the incentive is strong enough. Heck, we just shut down the economy.

                      Why did you lose your job or business?

                      China.

                    • katiemckee84_223

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 11:31 am

                      Quote from ADHD

                      Quote from JTG

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                      The stock market leads the economy

                      Sort of and certain times more than others. In normal times it trends on estimates of analysts and poll takers about where corporate earnings are going and how consumer sentiment is trending. 

                      Now are not normal times. Right now it is more about emotion. There is excitement when the numbers look better, a massive cash infusion is coming from the government. It is completely discounting forward corporate earnings. Can that maintain itself? For a period of time yes. The good news better continue though. The most important being good COVID numbers and a response of opening the economy at least to some degree. 

                      From what I am seeing so far there is not anyone willing to take the bold move of relaxing SD. I would get ready for the next wave of sell offs once we learn we have to stay locked in through at least May. 

                       
                      I agree, and I’m an optimist. But they did just say QE buzz lightyear style. Still, there is always a participant or many that can call BS on their acting like there is no repercussion for monetizing the whole thing. We do have the world’s reserve currency though — for now.
                       
                      Do you really think most will try to extend through May? Get ready for civil disobedience if that’s the case. I say the president states very soon (next week) it’s time to open up. He has the good sense enough to know that his original intuition (that Fauci is a globalist, bureaucrat hack) was dead on.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 12:35 pm

                      Quote from Intermittent Blasting

                      Quote from ADHD

                      Quote from JTG

                      Quote from dergon

                      The stock market isnt the economy

                      In a thread focused around radiology volumes its going to be much more closely linked to current GDP than forward looking market expectations

                      The stock market leads the economy

                      Sort of and certain times more than others. In normal times it trends on estimates of analysts and poll takers about where corporate earnings are going and how consumer sentiment is trending. 

                      Now are not normal times. Right now it is more about emotion. There is excitement when the numbers look better, a massive cash infusion is coming from the government. It is completely discounting forward corporate earnings. Can that maintain itself? For a period of time yes. The good news better continue though. The most important being good COVID numbers and a response of opening the economy at least to some degree. 

                      From what I am seeing so far there is not anyone willing to take the bold move of relaxing SD. I would get ready for the next wave of sell offs once we learn we have to stay locked in through at least May. 

                      I agree, and I’m an optimist. But they did just say QE buzz lightyear style. Still, there is always a participant or many that can call BS on their acting like there is no repercussion for monetizing the whole thing. We do have the world’s reserve currency though — for now.

                      Do you really think most will try to extend through May? Get ready for civil disobedience if that’s the case. I say the president states very soon (next week) it’s time to open up. He has the good sense enough to know that his original intuition (that Fauci is a globalist, bureaucrat hack) was dead on.

                       
                      Do I think they will extend through May? Probably, at least the Democrat controlled states. If Trump says open up, NY and CA will not, just to try and prove how wrong he is. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 12:41 pm

                      And while that is political it has no relation to where I stand politically.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 12:47 pm

                      I don’t think DeWine (R) is going to re-open Ohio if his public health experts expect a spike in case with the release of social distancing rules … nor do I think the other GOP governors who acted early will …
                       
                      The Trumpiest Republicans might do it, but the bulk of the nation is going to act on the advice of public health experts instead.
                       
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 12:56 pm

                      I knew someone would mention Devine and again that really has nothing to do with my observation. For me this is what I hope would occur, none partisan reactions.
                       
                      I might as well come out with it. I am a former registered republican turned independent after DJT was elected. I believe partisan politics was close to ruining our country before COVID. With COVID the odds are much higher. I have many good friends on both sides of the political discussion and I choose not to have that conversation with them most of the time. I leave my input for times when my training and thinking allow me to give insight that is valuable and non-partisan. I think I am respected for that.
                       
                       

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 1:18 pm

                      NY and CA will choose not to comply with Trump’s order because they will be saving lives of their citizens.   Same for DeWine and reasonable Republican governors.
                       
                      They will be acting on the basis of the best science.   Cuomo and Newsom and Dewine are not going to let their economies be damaged out of spite. They’re going be following the best predictive models available and taking guidance from state and federal public health experts.
                       
                       

                    • kaldridgewv2211

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 2:44 pm

                      I think theres a way to get some semblance of normal. Take out and delivery from restaurants you like. I think Dewine also now allowed 2 drinks per meal to be delivered/takeout. I just dont see how things go back unless we get a lot more testing done. You cant even buy a tiny Purell for personal use at this point.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 10, 2020 at 4:26 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      NY and CA will choose not to comply with Trump’s order because they will be saving lives of their citizens.   Same for DeWine and reasonable Republican governors.

                      They will be acting on the basis of the best science.   Cuomo and Newsom and Dewine are not going to let their economies be damaged out of spite. They’re going be following the best predictive models available and taking guidance from state and federal public health experts.

                       
                      They certainly hope and believe they will save lives. They will certainly tell us they did even if we don’t have any real evidence it was because of SD. They will likely tell us they saved millions of lives because the uneducated public will easily believe them. Heck, there are a lot of well trained scientists that believe it as well.
                       
                      Remember, the relationship to SD and total deaths is merely theoretical and correlative at this point. No evidence to truly connect the two. The evidence works just as well with the natural history of the virus and true CFR. There are two hunches at this point. That’s it. 
                       
                      We could do some simple experiments to help figure it out. I have not seen one person on the extreme distancing side agree it would even be worth it to try. All they do is try to poke holes in the limited data that is coming out of small observations and experiments that come close to what I am suggesting.
                       
                      Why is that? What are they afraid of? The virus isn’t as deadly as we once thought? Why would that be a problem?
                       
                       

                    • beatlesfandan_539

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 6:57 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      NY and CA will choose not to comply with Trump’s order because they will be saving lives of their citizens.   Same for DeWine and reasonable Republican governors.

                      They will be acting on the basis of the best science.   Cuomo and Newsom and Dewine are not going to let their economies be damaged out of spite. They’re going be following the best predictive models available and taking guidance from state and federal public health experts.

                      [link=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207245/Six-THOUSAND-families-line-cars-hours-food-bank-San-Antonio.html]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207245/Six-THOUSAND-families-line-cars-hours-food-bank-San-Antonio.html[/link]
                       
                      [link=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209061/Food-banks-buckle-demand-warn-run-millions-Americans-hungry.html]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209061/Food-banks-buckle-demand-warn-run-millions-Americans-hungry.html[/link]
                       
                      [link=https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208633/Las-Vegas-workers-tell-calling-jobless-bureau-1-000-times-unable-file-claim.html]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208633/Las-Vegas-workers-tell-calling-jobless-bureau-1-000-times-unable-file-claim.html[/link]
                       
                      Treating the disease but killing the patient

                    • suman

                      Member
                      April 10, 2020 at 12:51 pm

                      Quote from ADHD

                      Do I think they will extend through May? Probably, at least the Democrat controlled states. If Trump says open up, NY and CA will not, just to try and prove how wrong he is. 

                       
                      If CDC says open up but the TDS crowd in California gov will try to force people to stay inside “to save lives” then I don’t think people will comply. As far as California tech bros go, the whole purpose for social justice / political correctness / virtue signaling is getting laid & feeling superior over midwestern brutes. But when it comes to actually putting own money behind virtue signaling they will never do that.
                       
                      South Park is19e08 is a great way to understand how ruling elite thinks at the coast (NSFW):
                      [link=https://southpark.cc.com/clips/z61jlw/would-that-be-acceptable]https://southpark.cc.com/clips/z61jlw/would-that-be-acceptable
                      [/link][link=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGWKKI2ky8w</a>]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGWKKI2ky8w[/link]
                      [link=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMZzYa0i7G4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMZzYa0i7G4[/link]

                      There’s barely any old & fat people in San Francisco anyways.

                    • sameh41980_220

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 8:08 am

                      leaving the politics aside and focusing on the recovery….
                       
                      Mrs. Smith’s hip replacement surgery still needs to happen. Her degenerative arthritis did not suddenly get better….

                    • sehyj1

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 8:16 am

                      The small private group I signed a contract with has been hinting they’re going to drop me

                    • ranweiss

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 8:16 am

                      Quote from api7342

                      The small private group I signed a contract with has been hinting they’re going to drop me

                       
                      Sorry to hear that. I think it’s understandable to reduce salary / delay a start date at this time, but just dropping someone that you signed a contract with sucks.

                    • cieminsjohn

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 8:24 am

                      Quote from api7342

                      The small private group I signed a contract with has been hinting they’re going to drop me

                       
                      Sorry to hear that.  I’ve got a contract pending on a larger group than my current one.  But my anxiety is that either my current group or new group may decide to drop me.  So far both are saying no to my anxiety, but we live in strange times ….
                       
                       

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 12:58 pm

                      [link=https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/04/16/ohio-gov-dewine-said-he-intends-starting-lift-restrictions-when-stay-at-home-order-expires-may/?fbclid=IwAR0B9pgZ8NtTO_IBVQ0EDtcHmVB1h7GSlMxEgBCtaz9-oT-WSc9CX92h8P0]https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/04/16/ohio-gov-dewine-said-he-intends-starting-lift-restrictions-when-stay-at-home-order-expires-may/?fbclid=IwAR0B9pgZ8NtTO_IBVQ0EDtcHmVB1h7GSlMxEgBCtaz9-oT-WSc9CX92h8P0[/link]
                       
                      Gov. DeWine said he intends on gradually reopening Ohio on May 1[/h1]  
                      … Healthcare services at the top of the list for re-open!
                       

                    • adrianoal

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 1:59 pm

                      Will be interesting to see the variations in how/when states “open back up”, and what effects that has:  (1). On their respective economies.  (2). Does that pressure other states to open up more quickly?  (3). Are states that are “back open” going to resist paying, via the federal government, for continued bailouts of states that are not?  
                       
                      Even more pronounced may be a similar experience in the EU.  Do you think the northern europeans are going to want to pay for a prolonged lockdown in southern europe?  Answer:  It would be the end of the EU.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 5:14 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      Gov. DeWine said he intends on gradually reopening Ohio on May 1  
                      … Healthcare services at the top of the list for re-open!

                       
                      This is what I have been recommending since the start. Healthcare is the perfect place to reopen safely.

                    • suman

                      Member
                      April 16, 2020 at 5:48 pm

                      Encouraging news from the White House today, as elective procedures are prioritized in stages 1 and 2.
                       
                      Let’s see if volumes do go back up though. Consumers might have figured out they don’t actually need all those procedures and in-person visits after all. I see a lot of patients who have been recently pleasantly surprised to learn that a phone call / tele-health / physical therapy / pharmacy consult / etc might be working just fine for many things that previously required an expensive trip to the clinic or a procedure.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 16, 2020 at 5:52 pm

                      Quote from avocado

                      Encouraging news from the White House today, as elective procedures are prioritized in stages 1 and 2.

                      Let’s see if volumes do go back up though. Consumers might have figured out they don’t actually need all those procedures and in-person visits after all. I see a lot of patients who have been recently pleasantly surprised to learn that a phone call / tele-health / physical therapy / pharmacy consult / etc might be working just fine for many things that previously required an expensive trip to the clinic or a procedure.

                       
                      That may be the case and I would argue it’s a good thing. Doing too much put us in the place we are in. A race to the bottom for medicare payments.
                       
                      Getting back to a place where they are allowed is the important part so we can see where our new normal is as soon as possible.
                       
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 4, 2020 at 7:13 pm

                      Quote from radiecutie

                       

                      This got hijacked by people crying. What are groups doing in the short run is my original question. 

                       

                       

                      Quote from JTG

                      I’m amazed by the level of arrogance on this thread.  There are continuous debates by the best economists in this world over how much damage this will cause and the current consensus is that it will be severe but short.  Yet there are a bunch of non economists here displaying their recency bias of because its bad now it will be bad for years.  Learn to be humble and conscious of your incompetence.

                       
                      Define short.  To an economist, short can be a few years.  To someone who has to go with a reduced or no paycheck, a few weeks is a long time.

                    • reuven

                      Member
                      April 5, 2020 at 10:18 am

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Quote from radiecutie

                       

                      This got hijacked by people crying. What are groups doing in the short run is my original question. 

                       

                      Quote from JTG

                      I’m amazed by the level of arrogance on this thread.  There are continuous debates by the best economists in this world over how much damage this will cause and the current consensus is that it will be severe but short.  Yet there are a bunch of non economists here displaying their recency bias of because its bad now it will be bad for years.  Learn to be humble and conscious of your incompetence.

                      Define short.  To an economist, short can be a few years.  To someone who has to go with a reduced or no paycheck, a few weeks is a long time.

                       
                      The stimulus plan provides paychecks to those who have decreased income for 4 months as well as business loans.  Note that the job losses in March were predominantly those with a high school or lower education so this checks will be very helpful. The size of the stimulus is 10.8 % of GDP.  Additional rounds of stimulus are being discussed. 

  • btomba_77

    Member
    July 15, 2020 at 12:03 pm

    [link=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1076633220303998]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1076633220303998[/link]
     
    [b]COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Decreased Imaging Utilization: A Single Institutional Experience  [/b]
     

    System-wide imaging volume decreased by 55% between April 7 and 13, 2020. Outpatient exams decreased by 68% relative to normal practice. Emergency exams decreased by 48% and inpatient exams declined by 31%. Mammograms and nuclear medicine scans were the most affected modalities, decreasing by 93% and 61%, respectively. The main campus hospital experienced less relative imaging volume loss compared to the other smaller and outpatient-driven hospitals. At its lowest point, the technical component revenue from main campus imaging services demonstrated a 49% negative variance from normal practice.
     

    • btomba_77

      Member
      July 21, 2020 at 4:38 am

      We are now consistently running at 99th percentile of volumes on a 7-day moving average.  Regular peaks well over 100% of normal.
       
       
      We had a mini-peak of Covid that brought us back to our April hospitalization numbers, but that lasted only a couple of weeks and is already trending back down.   Volumes stayed up high throughout.

      • cieminsjohn

        Member
        July 21, 2020 at 7:13 am

        We bounced back some, now dropping in our outpatient imaging again with rising covid patients…  ER volumes are closer to normal (stuff outside of covid). 

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          July 21, 2020 at 7:19 am

          Record OP volumes.

          • btomba_77

            Member
            January 12, 2021 at 12:09 pm

            Total year volumes from 2020 system-wide trailed 2019 by about 10% when it was all said and done.
             
            Massive drop-off in April.  Bounce-back high volumes in May /June.   Slightly below normal Oct/Nov/Dec

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              January 12, 2021 at 2:36 pm

              Not bad all things considered!

              • btomba_77

                Member
                June 20, 2021 at 5:37 am

                Just had my biggest single RVU day ever.
                 
                Logged on at 5:30 am and logged of around 8p.    Covering both MSK calls (our academic main campus as well as the regional system MSK) got me 55 cross sectional.
                 
                Downtown ED got about 70 pfs (part of my normal weekend call)
                 
                And I read about 200 additional backlogged cases for internal moonlighting.
                 
                Our volumes are through the roof system wide.

                • jun52.park

                  Member
                  June 20, 2021 at 6:31 am

                  Congrats?

                  I have never had a day like that, not even half and never hope to.

                  • Dr_Cocciolillo

                    Member
                    June 20, 2021 at 6:59 am

                    Same here on volumes exploding

                    Thats a miserable weekend day to me

                    Being paid on a per case basis does ofcourse help when one chooses to do moonlighting during the assigned weekend

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 7:08 am

                      Quote from wisdom

                      Being paid on a per case basis does of course help when one chooses to do moonlighting during the assigned weekend

                      This.
                       
                      My *normal* coverage is 7a-7p anyway.   The yacht club is crazy because it’s cleveland race week so too crowded for my tastes … kind of planned ahead for a full day indoors/

                    • al.georgiev_193

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 9:30 am

                      Whats funny is thats like a normal RVU day for mamms

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 9:46 am

                      And can be done in 4-6 hours. No doubt mamms is an rvu generating machine. Especially reading screening Tomo.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 9:49 am

                      Our most recent hire to the MSK section does mamms on day per week out at a regional hospital … he gets to pad his number 🙂

                    • consuldreugenio

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 12:18 pm

                      Volumes have definitely picked up. Especially evenings and overnight ED volume. If a practice can get overnight studies finalized instead of prelimed, that may ease the bleeding.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      June 20, 2021 at 3:11 pm

                      In a low volume practice prelims with next day final reads is the way to go.
                      But in a busy practice, you cant afford to hash through all those studies. Marginal benefit not there. Got to go to final reads. And absolutely if short staffed.

                    • kathleen.hibler

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 3:25 pm

                      325 studies in a day?

                      Did I read that wrong?

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      June 20, 2021 at 4:21 pm

                      [Deleted by Admin]

                    • Mohamed

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 5:10 pm

                      We’re up 30 to 50% compared to pre pandemic highs depending on modality and currently for every 2 studies completed 3 orders are put into the system so this isn’t going away anytime soon

                    • sanad50_506

                      Member
                      June 20, 2021 at 7:31 pm

                      We were down in volume for about 6 months but then picked up back to normal levels and likely increasing with new docs to area.