[buckeyeguy]

This is a key point. I’ve been warning many on the board about this kind of issue, and the peripheral ones, but like all topics, the boomers think their run won’t end. The Dream Run is over, peeps
 
In 2024 at the latest we have catastrophic financial issues for the gov’t and all the promised people, and of course that hits CMS too. Get ready.

[g.giancaspro_108]

Last year we had two retire and 4 went part time.
Part time is still >40 hours a week, but it is part time to us nonetheless.
 
Haven’t heard anything yet for this year.

[buckeyeguy]

Quote from sandeep panga

Last year we had two retire and 4 went part time.
Part time is still >40 hours a week, but it is part time to us nonetheless.

Haven’t heard anything yet for this year.

 
People know I like to make predictions. 2024 will be a crazy, crazy year. the beginnings of how bad it’ll be are going to start in earnest in the next 6 weeks
 
get ready.

[Unknown Member]

Yes like your gold prediction of 3500$ by 2018

The DOW 12,000 in 2016

And bitcoin 100,000$ by the end of 2021

Yes you are the predictor thats why they called you Nostradumbarse in the past

[pankajkaira1982_700]

part time is >40 hrs? Wild. I work full time, 40-45 hrs and even then I feel a little tired at the end of the week.. 
[link=https://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/post.aspx?mq=&messageID=722971#][image]https://www.auntminnie.com/Forum/app_themes/Classic/image/Update.gif[/image]Post Message[/link]

[260268]

Personally, I don’t want “out” completely. 
 
Working 210+ shifts a year, 8.5 hour shifts, 45 min commute often bumper to bumper is a grind. Add on top, increasing volume, complex cases etc… Declining reimbursement, but increasing salary because we are reading more and more cases… 
 
I just want to slow it down a bit. I live in a reasonable cost of living area and make more than enough. I would rather have more time for the wife/kids, travel, hobbies… 
 
I get immense satisfaction out of work, but it can be an absolute grind if I have been doing it without a vacation for a while. 

[Unknown Member]

I guess I dont understand

Why do you choose to spend essentially 25 years of education to retire as soon as possible?

I completely get working less but I get a sense of doing some good in the world most of my days and I actually like what I do

Why in the hello would I
Want to quit

[ljohnson_509]

^^ some of us dont want to read films and be told where to report for the majority of our prime waking hours. Its a job. Thats it.

You hit middle age and a have a fat account and realize there is more to life. Time is more precious than the extra money. Health may fail as well and then nothing matters.

[Unknown Member]

To each his own I guess

[mouzaalj_95]

I think part of the problem with shortages is also most groups are really not appealing to the new generations or the ways things could be done. Ive been looking for a position and when every position is exactly the same as my old job theres not much incentive to join other than geography. 7/7 are being pitched everywhere but most people dont want every other weekend taken by work. So many groups are not embracing remote work – I actually like being on site if I get to interact with other rads, but if Im going to be the only DR person on site and also not doing procedures why do I need to be on-site?!

[Unknown Member]

Someone has to do the work

If we dont do it then someone else will either a new group or a Physician Assistant

Then we will all beatch and wonder why we got replaced

I think remote reading is a good thing but it could really Fck us over in 10 years

[Unknown Member]

Somehow I am not worried about a pa or np taking my job.

[gyspygirlus_1313]

They won’t take your job
 
They’ll large batch sign a 100 CXRs in 5 minutes and offload the liability on to you bc of that simple fact – they don’t want your job and its associated responsibility (internally at least, externally they’ll call themselves a doctor at the blink of an eye). Again this is just a gross generalization of the worst offenders. 
 

[Unknown Member]

Well a PA might not take your job directly but if you arent around or on site they can be easily available for paras thoraxs basic biopsies and maybe basic drainages-

Then you sitting at home in your jammies become quite expendable and are totally commoditized to a point that you are getting undercut for your pay per work rVU

You might get 35-45 a wRVU today but when you become less relavent you might be fighting other Jammie Readers for 10$ wRVU

Thats what worries me but in to years I probably wont need the money

The younger rads are potentially Fck ed because of the desire to be a Jammie Reader

[Unknown Member]

Then of course the new grads will blame the boomers but its not the boomer generation that insists on being Jammie readers

[gyspygirlus_1313]

Totally agree, out of sight is out of mind.

Soft skills are what we need to develop out of training to ensure our viability. Its nice to say were essential to the hospital workflow. But when no one sees you, no one knows the reason that cxr with an obvious ptx took an hour was Bc that 3 car MVA was a disaster right before. But with the increasing isolation , the rest of the hospital assumes we are at home in our Jammies. And if thats the case can you really fault them for hating us a la Billy Mallon

[Unknown Member]

Im usually not a pessimist but I think remote reading is a bigger threat to the future of our profession than anything else on the horizon today

Just my feelings

[kbrough_732]

Remote reading is the best thing to happen to an efficient diagnostic neurorad, can do three jobs at once and actually make what you’re worth while the lazy senior partner does the disimpaction barium enema. I’m happy to be a commodity.

[gyspygirlus_1313]

What would Ayn say to Im happy to be a commodity , my dear Hank

Hehe

[btomba_77]

Quote from Chirorad84

Im usually not a pessimist but I think remote reading is a bigger threat to the future of our profession than anything else on the horizon today

Just my feelings

Quote from Rearden_Steel

Remote reading is the best thing to happen to an efficient diagnostic neurorad, can do three jobs at once and actually make what you’re worth while the lazy senior partner does the disimpaction barium enema. I’m happy to be a commodity.

Quote from RadsMonkey12345

What would Ayn say to Im happy to be a commodity , my dear Hank

Hehe

As long as the commodity is in short supply and in high demand, it’s pretty nice being commoditized  …
 
 
… until it isn’t
 
 
(thank god that the American trial lawyers lobby is song strong. otherwise we’d have international rads reading studies and our salaries would drop 40% overnight.   But, the lawyers need someone to sue.)

[Unknown Member]

When I first went to medical school young radiologist were complaining about buying into private group practices and they didnt want to work nights ever

So corporate radiology emerged and bought out the old farts and had the scale to work nights

Now we all beatch about corporate radiology

Im convinced we are our own worst enemy

[Unknown Member]

I don’t see np/pa or those who might hire them having an interest in diagnostic rads. They are trained/interested for hands-on procedures or history/physical. The higher ups are much more eager to just increase the radiology resident slots and as an excuse say “otherwise nurses would be doing the tat standards that we made up”.

[landk_304]

Quote from RadsMonkey12345

They won’t take your job

They’ll large batch sign a 100 CXRs in 5 minutes and offload the liability on to you bc of that simple fact – they don’t want your job and its associated responsibility (internally at least, externally they’ll call themselves a doctor at the blink of an eye). Again this is just a gross generalization of the worst offenders. 

 
Any radiologist that takes this deal is a fool and guaranteed to be sued multiple times. 
 
Lawyer: “Ladies and gentlemen, this radiologist spent 250 microseconds on each xray.”

[Unknown Member]

I am just going to state some facts:
1.Overall job market is the best in 50 years and nurses or whatever are getting pay raises at least as high as the rate of inflation.
2. I am getting a 2% pay raise. I applied for jobs 2 years ago when the market was already considered “good”. I interviewed or communicat3d with about 20 groups. And many private practices clearly wanted to take advantage by offering me something like “$20/rvu and become partner if you do something significant over several years”. They used somewhat deceitful language in interviews and relied on my basic economic and law illiteracy hoping I would bite a terrible deal. Some of those practices are still trying to get a bite from some naive grad. Needless to say I am happy with my university job.
3. The only people who gain from radiologist oversupply are the practice owners and hiring managers. Of course you’d like it if people competed for crappy jobs.
4. Medicare rvu rates have not gone up since 2000 and never will. It was recently in the news that the house in which John Benet ramsay was killed went on sale for 10x of whatever it was worth then. It is obvious that practice owners made a killing in the last 20 years. But they still call new grads lazy. I am not lazy. I would just rather get cheated by a car mechanic or real estate agent than a private practice radiologist.

[btomba_77]

Are most groups like this?

 
our group has lost about 4% of its FTEs per year for the last 5 years.  About half of that is retirement …. so 2-3 people per year (for a gorup over a hundred rads)
 

Are we in for a critical shortage in the next 5 years as all the baby boomers retire en masse?

 
I think there is a fair chance of that happening.
 
A stock market crash might give pause to retirements for a couple/few years like 2008, but I don’t see the fundamentals changing.  Not enough rads being trained, aging population consuming more healthcare.
 
Combine that with a generational change in attitudes of graduating rads who prioritize quality of life from day 1 and you have a recipe for a *very* tight market.
 

Will they let midlevels infiltrate diagnostic imaging if there is a dire shortage?

 
I’ve said it before here … a chronic *mild* shortage is good for us. We get subsidies, we negotiate from a better position, etc.
 
A *severe* shortage makes hospitals/governments take drastic steps … major changes in the structure of the practice or American radiology could come out of a crisis situation.
 

If they do that what are our options to stop it? By unionizing?

 
By the time unionizing looks like a good move, the radiology world as we have known it from the 1980s until now has completely gone away.
 
We are too small, too niche to expect to out lobby cheap nurses. I don’t see unionizing as an effective protectionary measure should it come to it.
 
 

[Robbro524_990]

If you have a ton if money in the market right now, especially as a Boomer, and you can get 5% on your money, relatively ‘risk free’ in US treasuries, why would you not just put it mostly in treasuries?

5% is better than 0 or losing 40%. If the market crashes and these older physicians lose a ton of money in the market in this environment, then they deserve it. I won’t feel sorry for them at all.

I’ll probably throw rocks at them from the sidelines actually. I mean, how fing dumb can you be?

[Unknown Member]

Is the market going to crash?

[btomba_77]

Quote from DOCDAWG

If you have a ton if money in the market right now, especially as a Boomer, and you can get 5% on your money, relatively ‘risk free’ in US treasuries, why would you not just put it mostly in treasuries?

5% is better than 0 or losing 40%. If the market crashes and these older physicians lose a ton of money in the market in this environment, then they deserve it. I won’t feel sorry for them at all.

I’ll probably throw rocks at them from the sidelines actually. I mean, how fing dumb can you be?

 
 
Because a person who has their entire portfolio in treasuries and has to live for perhaps 4 decades in retirement is very likely going to see that investment under-perform the market in the long term, potentially depriving them of needed money late in life.
 
That’s where the concept of age-appropriate asset allocation comes in.   But the old days of “your age in bonds” aren’t here any more. Even Jack Bogle was advocating a higher proportion of equities for retirees before he died.
 

Quote from Chirorad84

Is the market going to crash?

Nobody knows.
 
And the reality is that the majority of retail investors who try to time market movements under-perform over time.   They tend to get out too late and get back in too late.
 
 
Market crashes of 40% or more are normal cyclical events.  PPINIOFR but … every time it has gone down it has come back, usually fairly quickly.
 
 

[Unknown Member]

I agree nobody knows and predictions are useless

The real question is what you do if it crashes

If it crashes Im buying when the blood runneth in the streets

And Im backing up most every truck I own too

[260268]

I work in a big department. 
 
In my section of about 20 radiologists, we have had 3 retire in the past couple years. We have 2 more who are out for sure in the next year. We have 2 others who have said they are out in the next few years. 
 
We are treading water kind of when it comes to hiring and increasing volumes. 
 
Edit: By “treading water” I mean we have been treading water for 3 years or so with a 10 lb brick over our head just struggling to say above the water, and we are all getting a little tired at this point, but are still alive… 

[Robbro524_990]

We have discussed this ad nauseum in the past.

We all should have known this was coming, based on demographics and Peter Zeihan’s work. Check his work out on youtube. We actually could use AI now in my opinion.

Otherwise, the system, as we knew it at least, might just crack.

Or, just go retro where ER studies get read out 12 to 24 hours later. I think a reversion is likely but the ER will lose their minds until they realize the market won’t support 30 minutes ER reads anymore. Interesting times.

[marciorka]

I wonder what is mean TAT in ED across the whole country?
 

Quote from DOCDAWG

 

We have discussed this ad nauseum in the past.

We all should have known this was coming, based on demographics and Peter Zeihan’s work. Check his work out on youtube. We actually could use AI now in my opinion.

Otherwise, the system, as we knew it at least, might just crack.

Or, just go retro where ER studies get read out 12 to 24 hours later. I think a reversion is likely but the ER will lose their minds until they realize the market won’t support 30 minutes ER reads anymore. Interesting times.

[afazio.uk_887]

 
People love to predict doom and gloom in the stock market.  However, everyone including the Fed reserve members are big time stock investors.  Congress is full of the world’s best investors thanks to rampant insider trading.  The whole system is corrupt and nobody will let it crash big time.  Yeah… 20-30% corrections, sure they will happen on occasion like last year…. smart time to buy.  In 5 years we will look back to last October as the low of the market.   Worst advice ever is to sit in 5% T-bills.  The next few months is the time to pick up stocks.  

[smfst7_929]

I personally dont think we have hit a low yet. What doom and gloom? I dont see any. Unemployment is super low. Many people have mortgages locked in at 3% plus or minus. Sure inflation is taking a nice bite out if it but I dont see much in terms of doom and gloom. I think if rates stay high we will see more banks and companies fail (looking at you RP with fingers crossed). Once we get a few big companies to fail market should drop another 10% easy. Then it may be a good time to start buying. Impossible to time it perfectly as always but best time to buy will be right before they start cutting rates. And they wont do that until we see some massive players fall.

[Robbro524_990]

That’s just not true about treasuries. It all depends on your age and why you are investing in the first place.

If you are a boomer and have 5 to 10 million in capital in the markets and can get 5% risk free in treasuries, why on earth would you risk your nest egg in the market at this point if you are approaching retirement? For the chance to make 20%? Well, that might happen but you could also lose your a$$ if the market truly crashes (which it may).

The problem with most people on this board is recency bias and the fact that they weren’t around in 1987 or even 2008 (for most) when people lost their a$$.

It’s psychologically tough for most people to lose 50% of their portfolio and keep investing. Most people capitulate and pull their $$ out.

But perhaps everyone on here has nerves of steel and can keep on investing when it all goes south. We shall see.

[btomba_77]

I came out of 2008 a multi-millionaire

Yes, I lost half on the front end . But I invested $7k per month all the way though and made a killing

There was no reason to change asset allocation in 2008 and there is no good reason to do so today

[smfst7_929]

Demographic collapse and lack of growth prospects are good reasons to be wary. Our demographics are changing with rich boomers retiring and poor indebted youngsters supposedly going to grow the economy? No way. Young generations dont have half the work ethic of the boomers and there are fewer of them. This may be a lost decade for stocks.

[Robbro524_990]

Sartorius gets it. Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s ordained to continue. Plus, if everyone is doing something (investing in index funds without any higher order cognitive work on the matter), then why should it give one outsized gains? I think things are changing quickly, but it could continue for a while. But, if there is a big crash and it takes a decade to recover, then most on here are f%$ked.

We’ll see.

[afazio.uk_887]

Dude we are about to experience the greatest wealth transfer in history soon as boomers die off.

I am already multimillionaire from Rads but my Dad said I can expect multiple millions in inheritance some day. He has spent last 50 years investing in stocks.

Nothing going to beat stocks. Look for asymmetrical opportunities, like META stock.

[afazio.uk_887]

Compounding the most powerful force on earth. Hiding in at bills even at 5% is weak sauce. But that is Rads, many have no ballz

[afazio.uk_887]

US economy is basically 80% consumption based. Very bullish imo for stocks

[Robbro524_990]

I’ll take making 5% over losing 40% any day.

Very few financial calculations or calculators take volatility and extreme left tail events into account. So, your (or better yet your ‘financial planer’s’) idea of compounding is only a half truth, at best.

Sure, if you are Berkshire Hathaway and have that kind of access to capital and can then buy into cash flowing businesses at bargain prices or during extreme market downturns, then you can do really well in the markets. But, my guess is that you aren’t them (BH). Otherwise, why would you be on a radiology board defending your index fund position? You wouldn’t.

To be honest, though, I’d be telling myself ‘everything will be just fine’ too, if I had most of my net worth in indexes in the current environment. Either that or start drinking heavily. Maybe both.

[afazio.uk_887]

Volatility is a feature of markets. Without risk there is no premium.

[afazio.uk_887]

Fed will be cutting rates soon.

[satyanar]

Quote from DOCDAWG

Sure, if you are Berkshire Hathaway and have that kind of access to capital and can then buy into cash flowing businesses at bargain prices or during extreme market downturns, then you can do really well in the markets.[b] But, my guess is that you aren’t them (BH).[/b] Otherwise, why would you be on a radiology board defending your index fund position? You wouldn’t.

 
I’m not them but I can and do own them. They’ve done quite well for me over the years. Plus, I get to hang with Charlie every now and then and learn from his wisdom.

[btomba_77]

Quote from sartoriusBIG

Demographic collapse and lack of growth prospects are good reasons to be wary. Our demographics are changing with rich boomers retiring and poor indebted youngsters supposedly going to grow the economy? No way. Young generations dont have half the work ethic of the boomers and there are fewer of them. This may be a lost decade for stocks.

Yeah the US has some demogrpahic issues, but we’re the cleanest dirty shirt in that regard.  Our demographics look better than Europe, a lot better than Japan, better than Russia, better than China (who are currently seeing a birth collapse)
 
And the US is very well situated to easily solve its aging demographics through immigration. As long as we remain a democracy with rule of law and are a place where people can make a better life for themselves, we will have a virtually unlimited supply of immigrants from Mexico/Latina America/Asia for at least a generation.   We just need to get over our internal political aversion to them.
 
*Could* we see a “lost decade” for stocks? Sure.  Could the next decade be another huge bull market sparked by re-shoring, new tech, energy developments, and productivity gains? Sure.   Could it the next ten years simply deliver average historical returns? Sure.
 
If you plan to start spending that money within this decade during retirement and/or plan to die by 2033 then sure, move it all into fixed returns.   But if you plan to be alive and spending money in 2060 then you’re probably going to need a lot of stocks in that portfolio.
 
 
 
 
 

[nasosmunfc_332]

We are as well staffed as pre covid. We do have 2-3 senior members wanting to cut back and/or retire, but have ample applicants to fill those positions. Worst case, internal moonlighting with home workstations will cover the lost supply. In our group, the demand for overtime far outstrips supply, so not having many issues in service issues currently.

[btomba_77]

Quote from lk

We are as well staffed as pre covid. We do have 2-3 senior members wanting to cut back and/or retire, but have ample applicants to fill those positions. Worst case, internal moonlighting with home workstations will cover the lost supply. [b]In our group, the demand for overtime far outstrips supply,[/b] so not having many issues in service issues currently.

same.
 
 
we’re academic-lite so our base pay while OK, isn’t awesome.    So the desire to supplement that with extra moonlighting dollars to get closer to private practice comp is high.
 
The demand actually really bumped up over this last year (maybe inflation??), to a degree that access is becoming contentious in the group.
 
 
 
(We also have an increasing number of rads asking the Chiar for permission to take on outside second gigs)
 
 
 

[ljohnson_509]

I wonder why demand for more work is so high? There is so much burnout and volume out there. Why isnt 400-5k enough?

[smfst7_929]

As of February 24, 2023, the S&P500 is currently trading 35% above its modern-era historical trend value, (about 1.0 standard deviations), indicating that the market is Overvalued.

If it were not already overvalued, I would say there is a case to be made to keep on plowing into it. It is overvalued historically. Boomers are still heavily invested in stocks. They are now in draw down phase.

According to Bloomberg, millennials only hold 4.6 percent of the wealth in America. The amount is $5.19 trillion. In juxtaposition, boomers hold 53.2 percent, or $59.96 trillion. They are 10 times wealthier than millennials, and twice as wealthy than Gen X.

As boomers spend their money, give to charity and pass it as inheritance to their children, they will be selling out of these stocks. More money flowing out of S&P than out is the logical outcome.

Pumping into the market has always worked because it was boomers contributing the lions share. As the largest demographic group to ever exist in the USA, repeating past history is unlikely as the biggest contributors become those who withdraw their money.

I am staying away from S&P index funds until market returns to historical valuations. I could be wrong but Im wiling to take the risk of leaving money on the table. With that said, I didnt pull current investments or stop contributing to retirement, I just stopped plowing that money into index funds.

[afazio.uk_887]

Millennials are a bigger generation than boomers. They are hitting peak earning years and also will inherit a huge amount of assets from boomer parents.

[smfst7_929]

Number of boomers born is greater than number of millenials born. Of course they have now passed overall number because older people do tend to die off at greater rates. Millennial capital will not be as much as boomer capital because millenials are more indebted and not as hard working.

[smfst7_929]

Craziest part is millennials only overtook boomers in overall numbers in 2019. Boomers hold over half the wealth while millenials are but a minor fraction of overall wealth. Not all that wealth will get passed down. Nice nursing homes are expensive

[jeevonbenning_648]

“not as hard working”

Biggest cope ever and how do you quantify this exactly? If I made $100 million and didn’t spend 20,000 hours of my life working for it does that mean I’m not a hard worker? Putting in a ton of hours does not always equate to better outcomes.

What if you are just smarter and use the internet and free information to make money without “working hard”?

[Unknown Member]

Hahaha

Use the internet for free information

What a marooon

[jeevonbenning_648]

I used the free internet / YouTube learn to perform ultrasound guided bursal and joint injections as a resident, on the fly.

There is almost nothing right now you can learn in college, that you cannot learn on the internet for free, and quicker. Try spelling lessons in your case.

Get with the game Chiro you’re falling behind. Too busy figuring out how many genders there are [:D]

[afazio.uk_887]

 
Back to investing…. Fed-induced banking crisis will create a credit crunch which is highly deflationary.  This is going to result in the Fed cutting rates by the end of the year.  This is what the bond market is expecting based on rates.  
 
Sitting in 4.7% T-bills is too risk adverse right now.  This is a time to slowly deploy into equities.  I take a more passive indexed approach, but I do tilt some to tech and small cap value.   Diversification among equity asset classes will be important again (seems it was lost over the last decade of US easy money).  
 
 

[jeevonbenning_648]

For the last 4 months or so and going forward I’ve been holding a large portion of my NW, on the order of 20 or 25%, in FDIC insured bank accounts paying me 4.85% APY. these accounts are FDIC insured to 2 million or 3 million because they aggregate several banks.

I see this as a much better play than t-bills and I bonds due to the easy liquidity and FDIC insurance.

Real inflation rate is closer to 14%, but my personal inflation rate is probably closer to 5%. Even if banks were paying me 1% I still probably hold this amount of cash, just because of the opportunities to pick up real estate at a discount that I’m already starting to see.

If you know how to invest and make money you will make even more money in the current time. If you are just good at dollar cost averaging index funds, well I can’t help you there.

[afazio.uk_887]

 
When everyone thinks cash is the best investment, it is time to buy high quality equities or index ETFs. 

[buckeyeguy]

Quote from Waduh Dong

 
When everyone thinks cash is the best investment, it is time to buy high quality equities or index ETFs. 

 
Wow, good luck with that. I’m going to be laughing within 2 months or so.

[jeevonbenning_648]

Could be, or you could be too early. Even in the best of times for me index funds are an inferior investment because it forces you to stay in the rat race longer, does not produce nearly enough cash flow, and is not tax favorable.

[afazio.uk_887]

 
Index ETF are extremely tax efficient.  Yield is low but that is a good thing in a taxable account. 
Rads is my job, not index investing.  Cash flow I want from my job, growth of capital with max tax efficiency I want for my portfolio.  
 

[jeevonbenning_648]

They are extremely average in terms of tax efficiency. If you’re paying 15 or 20% and real estate investors are legally paying $0 for decades on their income and capital gains, what did you read where they told you that index funds and ETFs are tax efficient?

ETFs are tax efficient when compared with bonds which happen to have the worst tax efficiency, so it’s all relative.

You want cash flow to come from your job, well that’s great but that’s only one source of income. And frankly most people will not want or have that forever. If you can’t figure out a way to make cash flow more passive you’re going to keep having to work.

[afazio.uk_887]

 
Real estate is just another asset class.  It is not the holy grail of investing. 
 
Yes, I don’t mind Radiology because I optimize my job for lifestyle considerations over income.  My income gives us a very comfortable lifestyle and my portfolio is designed for long term growth, compounding and tax efficiency. 

[jeevonbenning_648]

There are hundreds of asset classes within real estate, layered on top of that are even more strategies to profit from real estate from something very active like wholesaling all the way to passive investment in private placements in commercial real estate. Then of course you have layered on top of that the stage of investment all the way from opportunistic development to core cash flowing assets.

Real estate itself is not an asset class or just another asset class.

I understand you read bogleheads and they told you that paper assets were tax efficient, that is just a descriptive word, that doesn’t mean they have favorable tax treatment.

Paying long or short-term capital gains tax without things like phantom depreciation or tax credits to shield it is not favorable nor is it efficient.

Just another asset class, even high income professionals I’ve never seen someone go from 0 to financially free dollar cost averaging into paper assets in less than 10 years. Even high income lawyers and doctors took 20 to 30 years to reach financial freedom via the 4% rule.

You may call yourself rich and that’s great because of your income and savings rate, you are invested in an inferior asset class with poor tax treatment. People complain on here that 400k per year is not enough so it’s all a matter of perspective.

[Unknown Member]

Bogleheads etc (Dergon?)–
 
what have you been doing to lower beta in portfolio? Used to hear bond ladders, TLT, etc… but those have been so/so for the last ten years or so….

[btomba_77]

I don’t attempt to lower beta.
 
I presume that there is volatility in assets, often greater volatility for higher return assets.
 
If the market goes down I wait for it to come back up.
 
 
 

[satyanar]

Quote from dergon

I don’t attempt to lower beta.

I presume that there is volatility in assets, often greater volatility for higher return assets.

If the market goes down I wait for it to come back up.

 
If one has a portfolio of non correlative assets at a well thought out asset allocation and passively rebalances, according to Nobel Prize winning economic theory, one can lower Beta without giving up higher returns.
 
For some this gives piece of mind. Over the long run dergon will come out ahead. Has to stomach the down turns though.
 
There has been a problem with that theory recently. It’s harder and harder to find truly non correlative assets these days. Stock and bond portfolios are moving together in price. The bond portfolio does compensate with higher yields so this should equal out over the term of the bond. (we are talking treasuries here). Corporate bonds and municipal bonds are entirely different animals. 

[buckeyeguy]

We have reached the end of what all of you guys “know” which is not much. At least you have radiology expertise, though.
 
Have fun being, or staying poor, if you didn’t save that 400k for the last 30 years lol

[satyanar]

Not sure who you guys are. I know its not me! 😉

[buckeyeguy]

Quote from Thread Enhancer

Not sure who you guys are. I know its not me! 😉

 
Yeah, the little I know about you doesn’t put you in the boomer or older rad that should be easily retired by now, but isn’t/doesn’t want to/blew it all … the legacy types are all establishment shills to keep the ponzi going that fed them, and eats the future up for the rest of the US pop

[Radscatter]

My boomer parents have retired with millions, but they seem intent on spending it all.  I suspect once inflation and home healthcare take it’s cut there will not be much left. 
 
I also don’t believe the fed is going to pivot this year. None of the dot plots suggest any rate cuts this year. Inflation is too high and unemployment is way too low. I am in the ‘more pain to come’ camp. I’m doing half treasuries / half ETF. 

[g.giancaspro_108]

Anybody remember OutpatientRadRules ?

[260268]

Real estate is a very interesting asset class with a million ways to get involved. I would encourage everyone on here who invests to read about it before you knock it. The tax benefits of real estate are absurd if you are willing to take full advantage of them.

If you want to reach financial independence faster than traditional dollar cost averaging real estate is a great way to do it. I wish I had figured it out sooner, but I am still < 10 years out of training and working on building my real estate portfolio. My wife and I do single family home long term rentals. Plan to work for a long time, but would like to cut back my hours pretty significantly well before at 50.

Real estate lets you generate tax advantaged cash flow which can cover day to day expenses hopefully in perpetuity . It lets you sell your asset without paying taxes as long as you are buying another piece of real estate. The cherry on top is, when you die, you can pass it on to your kids and the cost basis resets and all the depreciation just goes poof they get the asset free and clear and you were able to take all the tax benefits for years.

The caveat to all of this is, the government could change the tax laws. They have talked about this forever, but I think they are reluctant because they themselves are taking advantage of it.

I am nowhere near 100% in real estate. I own a wide range of asset classes according to my financial plan.

[jeevonbenning_648]

Well said, the problem is 99% of traditional investment advice education platforms, blogs, financial advisors do not tell you any of this. And when you go to most financial or retirement forums they give the same generic investment advice using paper assets and the 4% rule.
That is is because three different parties benefit first and more before the average Joe investing in index funds and retirement accounts does.
For me, it took 8 years from house hacking an extra br/bth to financial freedom, I now invest in RE private placements for fun. Passive income covers 5-7X+ my expenses no matter where I happen to be living.
Net cash flow continues to compound 50% year on year even in 2022-2023 (income snowball in real estate), while I hear more than 5 people who have delayed their retirement (again) because of a 20-25% drop in the stock market. If you have am income-producing real assets strategy, things like fluctations in the market and economy, I wouldn’t even know it looking at my portfolio.
Its easier to trade your time for dollars while working a day job, I get it, but don’t complain about radiology reimbursement cuts, boomers retiring, and not being able to take the daily grind (all topics we see here frequently). Considering many financially free RE investors I personally know did not complete college or just have a BA degree.

I am 100% real estate (various types) + cash and proud of it
Don’t want to deal with this volatility – worst of 3 worlds = volatile, no cash flow, no tax incentives
 
 

Quote from Shlack

Real estate is a very interesting asset class with a million ways to get involved. I would encourage everyone on here who invests to read about it before you knock it. The tax benefits of real estate are absurd if you are willing to take full advantage of them.

If you want to reach financial independence faster than traditional dollar cost averaging real estate is a great way to do it. I wish I had figured it out sooner, but I am still < 10 years out of training and working on building my real estate portfolio. My wife and I do single family home long term rentals. Plan to work for a long time, but would like to cut back my hours pretty significantly well before at 50.

Real estate lets you generate tax advantaged cash flow which can cover day to day expenses hopefully in perpetuity . It lets you sell your asset without paying taxes as long as you are buying another piece of real estate. The cherry on top is, when you die, you can pass it on to your kids and the cost basis resets and all the depreciation just goes poof they get the asset free and clear and you were able to take all the tax benefits for years.

The caveat to all of this is, the government could change the tax laws. They have talked about this forever, but I think they are reluctant because they themselves are taking advantage of it.

I am nowhere near 100% in real estate. I own a wide range of asset classes according to my financial plan.

[260268]

“It’s easier to trade your time for dollars while working a day job, I get it, but don’t complain about radiology reimbursement cuts, boomers retiring, and not being able to take the daily grind (all topics we see here frequently).”
 
That’s why I started getting into real estate and increasing my financial IQ in general. I was completely sick of being emailed telling me to contact congress to delay radiology reimbursement cuts. 
 
It just dawned on me one day, that instead of getting upset about the current state of healthcare/radiology, and begging for more money, I just want to be financially independent. I can’t see myself giving up radiology, because I find a lot of meaning working, but I could do it less maybe, ~ 60% FTE… 
 

[afazio.uk_887]

 
We have one of the best jobs in medicine. I don’t understand this desire to get out.  

[jeevonbenning_648]

I fully agree. I wouldn’t do anything else in medicine.

I’ve just seen enough of the world, met enough people from different cultures, etc. that I couldn’t experience all I want in life if I kept working full time til I’m 70.

A rich life is not found behind a Barco monitor.

[Robbro524_990]

There are some really good posts on this topic, actually.

Look, I don’t think most of us really want to see our colleagues, no matter how much we may disagree with them on some issues, really get financially devastated. I know I don’t.

Most people in medicine worked too hard, for too long to not at least be financially free when it’s all said and done.

So, all of the dissident investors who are speaking up are saying is: just be careful and try to diversify some outside of equities- 30% or greater (if you haven’t already). If you still just have to invest in stocks/the market, then at least let a successful professional trader show you how to use options to limit your downside risks and let your profits run.

And, as others have said repeatedly, as good as stocks have been these past 14 years, select real estate was much better. Especially when you consider the tax benefits. Now, this can change quickly too, but I’d educate myself fully on it before I dismissed it. That’s all these/us dissidents are saying.

Good luck these next few years.

Some are about to lose their a$$, I fear.

While, some will 3X or 4X their money.

If the stock guys do that, I’ll be the first to eat crow.

[afazio.uk_887]

 
Perhaps I am not understanding the point of real estate investing because I cut back my hours a while back for less income, thus feel my job is pretty pleasant and am in no rush to retire.  
 
If I was in ER or something like that, I get the idea of replacing medicine income with something else and cut back significantly or quit.  But,  that simple is not the case in Rads.  It is a much better and more flexible field. 
 
So it makes sense to keep doing Rads for cash flow and invest in stocks for the long term growth with basically zero effort on my part and basically for free.  
 
Stock market beta and other risk premia are easily accessible for minuscule expense ratios. 
 
 
 
 

[Robbro524_990]

Look, you’re a smart person, obviously.

And, I get the fact that Jack Bogel beat everyone over the head with indexing because he figured it out, and it worked for him and his clients for a long while (and when indexing accounted for only 10 to 20% of the market). As that percentage rises (which IS happening – about 50% now), then major problems ‘might’ quickly emerge. Like extreme volatility and Boomers withdrawal of most of their cash…which will crash the markets. For certain.

If Boomers hold steady, as has happened historically, then you’ll likely be fine. To hedge, though, you already have your radiology career as a hedge (which is a good hedge – you can still make money no matter the markets, etc). Real estate is just another one. I’d just pick up some multifamily real estate books (Rich Dad Series first, etc) and see what you think. Might help you get richer.

[jeevonbenning_648]

I’m so glad I invest in a real assets that produce income, fulfilling a basic need. Obviously with much better tax incentives than any paper assets.

The standard financial advice and retirement model has always been flawed in my opinion because it’s predicated on pumping your savings into a vehicle designed for you to keep working at day job for 30 or 40 years, and then maybe just maybe when you’re older that you will have enough money to live a middle class life in retirement.