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Political Realignment around support for free trade (or lack thereof)
[link=http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/politico-harvard-poll-free-trade-trump-gop-228600] Republicans no longer the party of free trade[/link]
POLITICO-Harvard poll: Amid Trump’s rise, GOP voters turn sharply away from free trade — Eighty-five percent of Republicans say that free trade has cost more jobs than it has created, the survey found.
In a stunning reversal, a large majority of Republicans are repudiating their partys traditional support for free trade, and falling sharply in line with nominee Donald Trumps insistence that trade costs Americans more jobs than it creates.
Meanwhile, Democrats, whose representatives in Congress have traditionally been far more skeptical of trade deals and largely voted against giving President Barack Obama the fast-track authority to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership last year are now far more apt than Republicans to see the benefit of trade, according to an exclusive poll conducted for POLITICO and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Forty-seven percent of Republicans surveyed said that trade deals have hurt their communities over the last 10 years, compared to only 24 percent of Democratic voters. Only 18 percent of Republicans surveyed said that trade deals helped, while 33 percent of Democrats believe free trade helps.
Until this cycle got to the point that Trump actually won I had always figured that the most likely scenario for political realignment was that Republicans would [i]eventually[/i] make their peace, in a manner, with immigration. They would subsequently compete well for the Latino vote, get to around 50/50 and have a national governing coalition based on that.But it’s all been shaken up. So reading this article today really got me thinking and nodding along:
Matthew Yglesias called it months ago in [i]Vox [/i]: [link=http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2F2016%2F7%2F1%2F12060994%2Ftrade-public-opinion-realignment]American politics could be ready for a realignment on trade[/link]
[size=”3″]{T}heres evidence that the country could be primed for a larger realignment on the trade issue one that would see protectionism entrenched as the agenda of a post-Trump Republican Party while Democrats embrace free trade, returning to the partisan alignment that prevailed before the 1950s. …{S}urveys that break out the numbers by party tend to see a growing partisan divide on the issue one that lines up with Trumps trade skepticism rather than the congressional GOPs enthusiasm.[/size]
[size=”3″]This is clearly to some extent a consequence of Bill Clinton being in office during the main NAFTA legislative debate (though it was signed by his predecessor*) and of Barack Obama being in office during the TPP debate (though here, again, his policy was similar to his predecessors). But Trumps loud and proud protectionism will likely tend to further press polarization in this direction, with Republicans likely to pick up on the idea that bad trade deals are central to Americas economic woes.[/size]
[size=”3″]{Other reasons for possibility of realignment:}[/size]
[size=”3″][b]Americas service exporters are on the coasts[/b] {in solidly Democratic states}[/size]
[size=”3″][b]Fewer union members are involved in trade.[/b][/size][size=”3″]{Y}ou could easily imagine the volume of emphasis labor puts on trade issues declining in the future dropping off the labor-wide list of priorities, for example, and becoming more a topic for certain individual member unions that have a particularly strong stake in trade negotiations. That could allow more congressional Democrats to align themselves with the views of the voters who back them and the industries who power growth in their districts.[/size]
I think that realignment is here. Whether it persists past Trump (with or without him winning the Presidency) is an interesting question and could really shake up US politics.
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292 Replies
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Thank Bernie and his army of over-educated Starbucks baristas. Had it not been for him driving this ignorant nonsense, Hilary and the DoDo bird wouldn’t have picked this as a cause.
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Simple protectionism. The average republican is less educated and want to make a decent living doing basic trade jobs, but can’t compete in a global economy. American society is much different today than before manufacturing was outsourced overseas, but there is no turning back. People need to accept that this is capitalism at work and adapt.
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How do you compete with China who manipulates its currency and pays very low wages?
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
How do you compete with China who manipulates its currency and pays very low wages?
* Educate your workforce so that your economy competes for jobs that require higher education.
* Have an awesome infrastructure to make business more efficient.
*Have a lower corporate tax rate to encourage businesses to make things here.
(You [i]can’t[/i] compete on labor-intensive manufacturing like textiles etc for which the dominant factor is wage cost … that ship has already sailed. The days of a worker having a middle class lifestyle for doing relatively low skilled work are over … that’s the 21st Century reality. )-
It’s more complicated and simple. Simply, it’s not free trade that is the culprit, it’s that jobs were exported to lower wage and low regulation countries to make thing cheaper and to break unions of the American workers. No unions in China. Germany did not export its jobs for example and considers education and training to be most valuable to the country. That attitude is shared by both government and businesses unlike here in America where public education is considered wasted money.
But things are turning around because the Chinese workers are getting tired of being exploited by the government and business. But that won’t bring immediate relief to Americans. Now we also have robots doing routine work so education is more required than ever so math and science aren’t magic.-
Different example. From Europe you have BMW who makes an X5 SUV. China simply copies and says no we didn’t. Your higher educated work force creates the original and China Rips off your work.
[link=http://jalopnik.com/the-ten-greatest-chinese-knockoff-cars-ever-made-1694449178]http://jalopnik.com/the-t…s-ever-made-1694449178[/link]
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
Different example. From Europe you have BMW who makes an X5 SUV. China simply copies and says no we didn’t. Your higher educated work force creates the original and China Rips off your work.
[link=http://jalopnik.com/the-ten-greatest-chinese-knockoff-cars-ever-made-1694449178]http://jalopnik.com/the-t…s-ever-made-1694449178[/link]
Efficient strategy….sorta reminds me of McDowell’s in “Coming to America”
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America exported its jobs and lowered wages to China while Germany kept jobs and high wages. Something that keeps biting us all the time. Automation did not kill all past and future jobs, Germany has automation & still high employment and wages.
What’s wrong with America then? Maybe our culture of enriching the affluent on the backs of the poor and working class?
[link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/02/02/how-germany-was-able-to-win-globalization-but-the-united-states-was-not/]https://www.washingtonpos…united-states-was-not/[/link]
Donald Trump wants to rescue American manufacturing from the jaws of globalization. In his view, international trade is a competition where the rules are stacked against the United States. He has promised that jobs and prosperity lie at the other end of negotiation table. As he said recently to a group of union representatives, We’re going to stop the ridiculous trade deals that have taken everybody out of our country.
This past week, the focus turned to Germany, a U.S. ally that the Trump administration seems to regard as a frenemy. On Tuesday, top trade adviser Peter Navarro accused Germany of using a grossly undervalued currency to exploit the United States. Yet, just a few days prior, Navarro himself spoke of Germany as a model that the United States might emulate. We envision a more Germany-style economy, where 20 percent of our workforce is in manufacturing, he said on CNBC.
For Trump, a recurring strategy has been to tar America’s trading partners as cheaters and job stealers. But it’s difficult to fit Germany into that narrative.
As a new study from economists Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen and Jens Suedekum shows, German factory workers actually benefited from increased trade and competition in the 2000s. Though the emerging manufacturing hubs in Eastern Europe and China damaged some industries, like toys and clothing, the Germans more than made up for it by expanding exports in other sectors, particularly cars and machine tools.Of course, manufacturing employment has been in long-term decline in the United States and in Germany, a trend linked to robots, not globalization. Yet whereas trade further accelerated job losses in the United States during the 2000s, it helped retain German jobs against the forces of rising automation, the researchers say.
The German focus on export competitiveness helps explain how it preserved its share of the global manufacturing market even as much of the world’s production shifted to countries like China. But it does not wholly explain why Germany has also held onto so many manufacturing jobs. For that, economists point to a number of other factors, including a strong culture of cooperation between the government, businesses and unions, as well as investments in training workers. This is the other lesson we can learn from Germany: Some of the jobs we lost can be blamed on our own choices.-
Last week I chatted with my cabby in San Diego. Ethiopian refugee, in SD since 2002. Turns out he used to work for Sony assembling TV screens. One day, company announced that the production line will move 20 miles south to Tijuana. Now he drives a cab. No trade adjustment, no retraining all those things that theoretically compensated for the loss of these jobs.
NAFTA has been great for qualified Mexican industrial workers, that’s for sure.-
Quote from fw
Last week I chatted with my cabby in San Diego. Ethiopian refugee, in SD since 2002. Turns out he used to work for Sony assembling TV screens. One day, company announced that the production line will move 20 miles south to Tijuana. Now he drives a cab. No trade adjustment, no retraining all those things that theoretically compensated for the loss of these jobs.
NAFTA has been great for qualified Mexican industrial workers, that’s for sure.It’s our culture. Germany had many opportunities to move jobs out from under their workers to lower wage countries except they didn’t. Why not? The culture. “Socialism?” Where the public good surpasses corporate greed & Wall Street returns and even the Capitalist for-profit companies believe in that.
instead our goals were to break the unions that gave workers representation & higher wages & benefits so that Wall Street could earn higher returns in the short term. It’s not NAFTA, after all Germany belongs to the EU & they haven’t exported their jobs. It’s our culture. We undervalue our workers.The pay differential is proof of that.
American companies are looking to make money they have a pretty single-minded commitment to profitability, Baily, the Brookings economist, says. If that means moving to Mexico, thats what they do. If it means outsourcing to Asia thats what they do. German companies make money too, but theyre a little more committed to the long term and to their workforce.
Instead of cutting employees loose, German companies tried to find ways to make it worthwhile to keep them around by continually investing in new manufacturing technologies, as well as upgrading worker skills through the famed German vocational programs. Those efforts have more or less paid off. Nowadays, not only is a larger fraction of the German workforce employed in manufacturing, but the average German factory worker earns more than his American counterpart.
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Quote from Frumious
It’s our culture. Germany had many opportunities to move jobs out from under their workers to lower wage countries except they didn’t. Why not? The culture. “Socialism?” Where the public good surpasses corporate greed & Wall Street returns and even the Capitalist for-profit companies believe in that.
You seem to know very little about economic realities in germany.-
And you know economic realities. But you never seem able to enlighten anyone with your wisdom.
What’s your argument, Germany is not perfect? Hardly enlightened. Or enlightening.
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[b]Chaos ahead of White House trade announcement … Trump originally was to announce today … now tariff annoucement delayed 1 week.[/b]
The White House is planning to make a major announcement today about whether it will impose new limits on steel and aluminum imports following months of speculation about whether President Trump would follow through on trade threats and impose tariffs that could roil global markets, the [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/02/28/white-house-planning-major-announcement-thursday-on-steel-and-aluminum-imports/?stream=top-stories&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=.d6b5ba483fb0]Washington Post[/link] reports.
[link=https://www.axios.com/wh-officials-caught-off-guard-by-trumps-expected-trade-announcement-52e16f37-2f03-441b-bc29-1d65082e6241.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100&utm_term=politics]Jonathan Swan[/link]: But the news comes as a big surprise to many administration officials, signaling a truly remarkable breakdown in process and the event may not happen. The confusion last night among senior officials on the trade announcement a decision of global consequence is like nothing Ive seen in the Kelly era.
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Dow drops 350 points within minutes
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Quote from dergon
* Educate your workforce so that your economy competes for jobs that require higher education.
This takes time. Decades, in fact. It will also take an entire shift of perspective on the high school model – something that will be resisted by [strike]government employees[/strike] bright-eyed and bushy-tailed teachers.Quote from dergon
* Have an awesome infrastructure to make business more efficient.
Vague. Specifics?
Quote from dergon
(You [i]can’t[/i] compete on labor-intensive manufacturing like textiles etc for which the dominant factor is wage cost … that ship has already sailed. The days of a worker having a middle class lifestyle for doing relatively low skilled work are over … that’s the 21st Century reality. )
“Relatively low skilled [sic]” is a subjective term. If you’re discussing cerebral skills… well, there will always be those to the right and those to the left of the hump on the IQ curve. A country with a healthy economy would find a way to provide those either at or slightly below the median with the capabilities to live decent lives.
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Quote from dergon
* Educate your workforce so that your economy competes for jobs that require higher education.
This takes time. Decades, in fact. It will also take an entire shift of perspective on the high school model – something that will be resisted by [strike]government employees[/strike] bright-eyed and bushy-tailed teachers.
Yep. The economic (and thus political) payoff for having universal high quality education that addresses the needs of the economy comes 20 years from now. The politicians have to take the pain of making the investment but they don’t reap the reward … that’s why it never gets done.Quote from dergon
* Have an awesome infrastructure to make business more efficient.
Vague. Specifics?
Roads and bridges. Ports and waterways. Maske the electrical grid more modern and resiliant. Airports and air traffic control. Water and sewage systems. Levees and other storm mitigation.
Quote from dergon
(You [i]can’t[/i] compete on labor-intensive manufacturing like textiles etc for which the dominant factor is wage cost … that ship has already sailed. The days of a worker having a middle class lifestyle for doing relatively low skilled work are over … that’s the 21st Century reality. )
“Relatively low skilled [sic]” is a subjective term. If you’re discussing cerebral skills… well, there will always be those to the right and those to the left of the hump on the IQ curve. A country with a healthy economy would find a way to provide those either at or slightly below the median with the capabilities to live decent lives.
Yep. But you’re not going entice companies to on-shore that low skill labor-intensive manufacturing when they can’t make a profit doing it state side. [i]Most[/i] people, even those slightly below the average human cognitive scale, can be skill-trained. You just need an educational system that works in order to do it.
For those that can’t be upskilled then we need a solid safety net.-
Why invest in education when we can invest in a wall between the US and Mexico? Get your priorities right you radical lefty. 😉
My niece and nephew are highschooler/junior highschooler respectively. I’m actually happy to see some of the changes that have gone on since I graduated 20 years ago. My computer class was learn how to type 101. Now they have actual computer science type classes. Strong vocational schools are also great because we do need trained labor forces to build the infrastructure. We need smart kids to support us when we get old. Lets get that Elon Musk turbo tube system built.
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An interesting comment on the article of cultural and business practices between the US and Germany:
19ch65
11:06 AM EST [Edited]
This is by far one of the best articles explaining the manufacturing success of Germany. As a former Finance employee of a US Corporation (Eaton) with manufacturing operations in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and France, of a specific division, I saw first hand the differences when addressing the 2009 economic downturn, between Germany and the anglo World.
The germans did not practice massive layoffs as the US plants did. Instead the gov’t stepped in and provided financial support, saving jobs of highly qualified individuals. These hung around, ready for when the economic situation turned around, as these guys were highly trained in the German apprenticeship system.
The Unions were quite involved, but when presented with the facts, had to support cutting working hours to adapt production and not kill the company. Everyone went through the pain.In all of this, the HQ in the US Hinterland, did not understand why massive layoffs were not done, as this is the norm in the US. No investment in workers, and when not needed tossed out the window. All decisions are done for a 3 months cycle. Long term is a 4 letter word and no-one dares to bring up. At the end of the day, Management did not have the slightest idea, as to why Bosch had 40% market share in the Hydraulics market.
Britain has gone the same way as the US. Some parts of the UK have been transformed into wastelands, where all manufacturing jobs have been depleted, by offshoring them to Asia and Turkey, in order to enhance profitability.
Trump can try to force US companies to bring jobs back, but if they see it hits their bottom line, the just will not. No one seems to want to implement a system that trains people for jobs and skills that might provide some higher value by developing a specific know-how. And all because this cannot be monetised and done before the next election. Short sightedness is the norm and that is SAD.
Instead her in the US we have business articles discussing whether the primary business of a company is profits (yes) or social and worker responsibility. Here government assistance for laid off workers is considered socialism (very bad!) that makes the recipients lazy and dependent. Better to throw them into the sea & it’s up to them to sink or swim. Funny now that blue collar people believe that while still complaining they were not helped enough & then voted for Trump.
Complaining out of both sides of their mouths.
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One trade war, coming right up:
President Trump said that he will impose stiff and sweeping tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum as he moved to fulfill a key campaign promise to get tough on foreign competitors, the [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/business/trump-tariffs.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=66605494&pgtype=article]New York Times[/link] reports.
Mr. Trump said he would formally sign the trade measures next week and promised they would be in effect for a long period of time.’
[link=https://www.axios.com/trump-declares-his-trade-war-targets-steel-aluminum-2f68d5fe-69ec-4872-b1d5-aaae28f7bf4b.html?source=sidebar]Jonathan Swan[/link]: I cant overstate the effect of Trumps new tariffs, 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. These tariffs have the potential to roil markets and affect relationships with allies. Trump is also touching the third rail of international trade law hes using an arcane trade law known as Section 232 to justify his actions.
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I think a manufacturing bright spot is in autos. Once those teriffs hit steel and aluminum the price of cars will go up and just guessing that will hurt car sales. Higher prices, higher loan rates a double whammy. He’s a very smart business man though. I mean like really smart.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
I think a manufacturing bright spot is in autos. Once those teriffs hit steel and aluminum the price of cars will go up and just guessing that will hurt car sales. Higher prices, higher loan rates a double whammy. He’s a very smart business man though. I mean like really smart.
Already decline … this will just urt even more
[url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/trump-s-tariffs-deal-a-blow-to-already-shrinking-u-s-auto-sales]
Trump’s Tariffs Deal a Blow to Already-Shrinking U.S. Auto Sales[/url][/h1]
[blockquote] [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GM:US]General Motors Co.[/link] and Toyota Motor Corp., plus parts suppliers like Robert Bosch GmbH, tried to warn the Trump administration of unintended consequences before the president said Thursday he plans to order tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum. U.S. automakers shares — already slipping because of weak February sales — extended declines after Trumps comments.
These proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports couldnt come at a worse time, said Cody Lusk, president of the American International Automobile Dealers Association. Auto sales have flattened in recent months, and manufacturers are not prepared to absorb a sharp increase in the cost to build cars and trucks in America.
Five of the six biggest car manufacturers on Thursday posted lower February deliveries than a year ago. GM shares slumped 4.5 percent as of 2:30 p.m. in New York, while Ford and Fiat Chrysler both dropped about 3.5 percent.
[/blockquote]-
This hand-wringing and woe-is-us-ing is absurd. A superpower should be fully independent from a manufacturing standpoint. Trade is good, but a certain amount of short-term pain is warranted to reawaken/stimulate American industry.
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we are independent. The example is the auto industry. We make a whole lot of cars. his tariffs will have a direct negative impact on that industry.
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Talk about global politics hitting home: You could pay more for a six pack of beer or a can of green beans under tariffs that President Donald Trump is considering for aluminum and other metal.
How much would tariffs add to the price of a six pack?
The industry says for every dollar worth of beer produced in the U.S., brewers spend about a dime for cans and roughly five cents for aluminum.
While that doesnt seem like a lot, it quickly adds up as brewers produce more than $55 billion worth of beer annually.
Just a 10% tariff on aluminum would cost beer and beverage producers $256.3 million, according to the Beer Institute, based in Washington, D.C.
[b] [/b][i][/i][u][/u][strike][/strike]
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel[b][/b][i][/i][u][/u][strike][/strike]-
Industry Trade group mocks Trump–the WH is being run like a bad mom and pop shop
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Quote from sentinel lymph node
Talk about global politics hitting home: You could pay more for a six pack of beer or a can of green beans under tariffs that President Donald Trump is considering for aluminum and other metal.
How much would tariffs add to the price of a six pack?
The industry says for every dollar worth of beer produced in the U.S., brewers spend about a dime for cans and roughly five cents for aluminum.
While that doesnt seem like a lot, it quickly adds up as brewers produce more than $55 billion worth of beer annually.
Just a 10% tariff on aluminum would cost beer and beverage producers $256.3 million, according to the Beer Institute, based in Washington, D.C.
[b] [/b][i][/i][u][/u][strike][/strike]
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel[b][/b][i][/i][u][/u][strike][/strike]Who cares?
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Republicans become the anti-Free Market party!
DOWN WITH CAPITALISM!-
[link=https://www.politico.eu/article/trade-donald-trump-united-states-europe-digs-in-to-fight-global-trade-war-against-trump/]https://www.politico.eu/a…ade-war-against-trump/[/link]
Trump trade war spreads across the globe in a day:
We will not sit idly while our industry is hit with unfair measures that put thousands of European jobs at risk [i]Jean-Claude Juncker[/i]
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Quote from sentinel lymph node
Industry Trade group mocks Trump–the WH is being run like a bad mom and pop shop
Are you endorsing this insult?
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[link=https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/969525362580484098]https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/969525362580484098[/link]
There are no winners in trade wars. It is all negative. Sure, this will support US steel production. But the rest of the production economy will see higher prices. And the consumers, who make up the bulk of the US economy, are hurt too.
Even if there is no retaliation it is overall negative for growth while being inflationary at the same time. Will these tariffs alone knock us into a recession? Not unless there is big retaliation. But they will likely take a few tenths of a percent off of top line GDP while increasing inflation enough to force the Fed into 4 rate hikes instead of 3.
We’re already late cycle…. this just accelerates it.
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Locally we could barely get the Army Corp of Engineers to dredge the Cuyahoga so that tankers could make it to ArcelorMittal. They wanted to dump all the dredged up poison into the Lake. But yeah we’re definitely going to be pumping that aluminum production way up.
I had to park in the Singer Steel building on Random Road for about a year. That place is just a shell. Guess we’ll be firing that up soon.
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[link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-tariff-folly-1519950205]https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-tariff-folly-1519950205[/link]
WSJ: [b]Trump’s tariff folly[/b]
[blockquote] Donald Trump made the biggest policy blunder of his Presidency Thursday by announcing that next week hell impose tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum. This tax increase will punish American workers, invite retaliation that will harm U.S. exports, divide his political coalition at home, anger allies abroad, and undermine his tax and regulatory reforms. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7% on the news, as investors absorbed the self-inflicted folly.Mr. Trump has spent a year trying to lift the economy from its Obama doldrums, with considerable success. Annual GDP growth has averaged 3% in the past nine months if you adjust for temporary factors, and on Tuesday the ISM manufacturing index for February came in at a gaudy 60.8. American factories are humming, and consumer and business confidence are soaring.
Apparently Mr. Trump cant stand all this winning. His tariffs will benefit a handful of companies, at least for a while, but they will harm many more. We have with us the biggest steel companies in the United States. They used to be a lot bigger, but theyre going to be a lot bigger again, Mr. Trump declared in a meeting Thursday at the White House with steel and aluminum executives. No, they wont. The immediate impact will be to make the U.S. an island of high-priced steel and aluminum. The U.S. companies will raise their prices to nearly match the tariffs while snatching some market share. The additional profits will flow to executives in higher bonuses and shareholders, at least until the higher prices hurt their steel- and aluminum-using customers. Then U.S. steel and aluminum makers will be hurt as well.
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NBC News: Trump was Unglued when he decided to launch trade war:
According to two officials, Trumps decision to launch a potential trade war was born out of anger at other simmering issues and the result of a broken internal process that has failed to deliver him consensus views that represent the best advice of his team.
On Wednesday evening, the president became unglued, in the words of one official familiar with the presidents state of mind.
A trifecta of events had set him off on in a way that two officials said they had not seen before: Hope Hicks testimony to lawmakers investigating Russias interference in the 2016 election, conduct by his embattled attorney general and the treatment of his son-in-law by his chief of staff.
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he won’t do nothing–lip service for PA special election because Lamb is a good candidate
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Quote from dergon
NBC News: Trump was Unglued when he decided to launch trade war:
According to two officials, Trumps decision to launch a potential trade war was born out of anger at other simmering issues and the result of a broken internal process that has failed to deliver him consensus views that represent the best advice of his team.
On Wednesday evening, the president became unglued, in the words of one official familiar with the presidents state of mind.
A trifecta of events had set him off on in a way that two officials said they had not seen before: Hope Hicks testimony to lawmakers investigating Russias interference in the 2016 election, conduct by his embattled attorney general and the treatment of his son-in-law by his chief of staff.
This is exactly the kind of stable genius we need running the country.
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As long as he doesn’t get unglued and launch something. Last thing we need to do is answer the question that came up during the campaign of obeying any launch orders form unstable Trump.
[i][b]Hopefully[/b][/i], the answer from the military would be, “No! Up yours!”
Then again, if we could attach Paul Ryan to the missile ala Slim Pickens, “YAHOO!”…it’s a thought.
The whole idea that the question even came up of what the military Chiefs would do should have been scary enough for sane people.
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First fallout:
Swedens Electrolux, Europes largest home appliance maker, said on Friday it would delay a planned $250 million investment in Tennessee, [link=https://nypost.com/2018/03/01/trump-says-he-will-impose-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs/]after President Trump announced tariffs on imported aluminum and steel[/link]. -
[link=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-03/eu-threatens-trump-with-harley-davidson-bourbon-and-levis-tariff/9505704]Europe, Mexico, China, Japan, and Canada consider retaliatory trade actions against the US[/link]
Europe considering targeting Harley-Davidson and Bourbon and Levis (Ryan, McConnell, Pelosi).
[blockquote]Canada is the largest supplier of both steel and aluminium to the US, supplying 16 per cent of US demand for steel.
Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said they were prepared to take responsive measures to defend its trade interests, but industry insiders say it has limited leverage to counter the plan, with officials attempting to secure an exemption from the tariffs.
Japan’s Trade and Industry Minister Hiroshige Seko had this to say: “We don’t think imports from Japan, an ally, have any effect at all on US national security.”
South Korean trade envoy Kim Hyun-chong met with Mr Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to “strongly demand” they keep the impact on local companies to a minimum, according to a Trade Ministry statement.
Brazil’s Industry Ministry said it would consider taking action on its own over the tariffs or in concert with other countries, and one Mexican official said earlier this week that Mexico would hit back if subject to US tariffs.
[/blockquote]-
And Trump threatens to retaliate if there is any retaliation
[url=http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/376577-trump-threatens-tax-on-eu-cars-over-tariff-retaliation]Trump threatens to place tariff on foreign cars if there is retaliation for US steel & aluminum tariffs[/url]-
WAR!
The Buffoon as leader of the US.
Oh, ‘B-R-E-A-T-H-E!’ R-E-L-A-X, r-e-l-a-x-x.
Nothing he says means anything from this buffoon. He’s just the idiot on the corner wearing the cards preaching on the soapbox, “ONLY I….” Ignore him. So say his followers.-
More bloviating and worry from the nothing burger crowd who has been wrong forever about Trump and are chicken littles
Europe is protectionist, majorly so. If we even approach their level of protectionism, we are now the “Trade War” initiator? LOL
Brexit was going to “ruin” GB’s economy, right? Right? LOL
The reality is, we don’t have a sucker or globalist kow towing to them anymore. How is that not a good thing? Someone who actually sticks up for American workers and principles. Oh yes, that goes against your false narrative too. Seems to happen quite a bit on this board -
[h1][b]Asia Forms Worlds Biggest Trade Bloc[/b][/h1]
Fifteen Asia-Pacific economies formed the worlds largest free trade bloc on Sunday, a China-backed deal that excludes the United States, which had left a rival Asia-Pacific grouping under President Trump, [link=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/asia-forms-worlds-biggest-trade-bloc-excluding-us.html]CNBC[/link] reports.
The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership at a regional summit in Hanoi, is a further blow to the group pushed by former U.S. president Barack Obama, which his successor Trump exited in 2017.
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Giving the Pacific away to China for free.
It was once, “Who lost China?” now it will be, “Who lost the Pacific?”-
We are sucking hind teet to China in many aspects. They have the whole Silk Road 2 which should be concerning.
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[link=https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/05/04/below-the-belt-and-road/]https://www.fdd.org/analy…low-the-belt-and-road/[/link]
Belt and road. Here’s hoping this article knows what’s up.
Maybe we can finally have some bipartisan China wrangling
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[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/biden-to-focus-on-trade-enforcement-after-years-of-trump-tariffs?srnd=premium]Biden to Focus on Trade Enforcement After Years of Trump Tariffs
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Bidens likely strategy for supporting American producers focuses on going after violations via dialogue, work with allies and use of dispute-resolution mechanisms in existing trade agreements rather than following the Trump administrations more blunt unilateral tool of national-security tariffs, according to industry veterans familiar with his incoming team. That could leave existing free-trade talks with the [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-08/u-k-u-s-race-for-mini-trade-deal-slowed-by-trump-s-mob-crisis]U.K.[/link] and [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-08/trump-bets-on-kenya-for-africa-trade-pacts-as-negotiations-begin]Kenya[/link] in limbo for the foreseeable future.
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Whether and how soon he might remove the tariffs, and what he would seek in return, are open questions. But his approach to enforcement is likely to focus on negotiation, mediation and multilateral action rather than unilateral moves — more of a surgical than sledgehammer strategy.
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Bidens starting point may be the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that went into force in July, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement. Katherine Tai, Bidens nominee for U.S. Trade Representative, was instrumental in negotiating the deals labor provisions. The AFL-CIO, the U.S.s largest labor union and a traditional Democratic ally, has been promising since September to bring the first complaint over conditions in Mexico.
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he needs to protect IP. I would cancel debt owed to China based on what they rip off from the US. Fake iphones ought to be worth a trillion. How bout 500B for all the fake starbucks. Fake N95 masks mark down a trillion.
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[h2][link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/18/josh-hawley-oped-republican-party-working-people/]The GOP is dead. A new GOP must listen to working people.[/link][/h2]
Opinion by Josh HawleyThe problem isnt principally the tactics; the problem is the substance. For the past two years, the Republican establishment in Washington has capitulated on issue after issue, caving to Democrats on the Second Amendment and on the lefts radical climate agenda (infrastructure). These Republican politicians sided with Big Pharma on insulin and advocated lowering tariffs on our competitors overseas.
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This tax-and-trade agenda has hollowed out too many American towns by shipping jobs overseas. It has made it almost impossible to raise a family on one income and to find a good-paying job that doesnt require a college degree. Our trade deficit with China has cost this country [link=https://www.epi.org/publication/growing-china-trade-deficits-costs-us-jobs/]3.7 million good jobs[/link], while a crisis of [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/us/politics/overdose-deaths-fentanyl-meth.html]drug overdose deaths[/link] particularly among working Americans has ravaged many of the same communities that have suffered most from deindustrialization. It has all made it harder to stay rooted in your hometown or region. Thats not a record of success.
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We can start by stopping the bleeding. No more talk of [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/14/republican-immigration-dreamers-00039479]grand bargains [/link]that turbocharge illegal immigration. No more liberalizing the United States trade agenda, making us more dependent on foreign adversaries. No more [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-gop-midterms-election-fraud-voter-suppression-inflation-coal-energy-gas-climate-change-national-debt-immigrants-11668099069]fiddling with Social Security[/link] in the guise of entitlement reform. All that should be clear enough.
But beyond this, its time for proactive policymaking. No nation ever got strong by consuming stuff other people make. We need an economy that produces critical goods here, in this country, and creates good-paying jobs for working people. [b]That means tariffs to foster American industry,[/b] local content requirements to reshore manufacturing and taking the shackles off U.S. energy producers. That means [link=https://www.hawley.senate.gov/senator-hawley-introduces-trust-busting-twenty-first-century-act-plan-bust-anti-competitive-big]new antitrust laws for Big Tech[/link] that will bust up monopolies such as Google and restore competition to the marketplace. And while were at it, we should start [link=https://www.nationalreview.com/news/hawley-to-introduce-bill-moving-federal-agencies-out-of-washington-d-c-to-economically-stagnant-areas/]relocating federal agencies[/link] such as the Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture to middle America. Its long past time for cosseted policymakers to confront the real-world consequences of their decisions, economic or otherwise.[/QUOTE]
(btw, that whole Trump anti-free trade is viewed by a sizable majority of Americans bad policy. Republican base likes tariffs …. but running on a trade policy that is opposed by 65% of Americans isn’t a path to a national majority)
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[link=https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-attacks-canada-over-highly-restrictive-trade-tactics]Trump attacks Canada over “highly restrictive” trade policies[/link]
The only way for [link=http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/commerce-secretary-lectures-global-markets-overreaction]coming steel and aluminum tariffs[/link] on Canadian goods to be waived is if the North American Free Trade Agreement is rewritten, President Donald Trump said Monday.
The Trump administration is slated this week to implement tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported into the country above the objections of close U.S. allies, economists, national security experts and even Republican lawmakers. On Monday morning, the president went after one of those allies, criticizing Americas northern neighbor as a trade conflict between Washington and Ottawa nears.
The president, as he often does, tweeted his disdain for Americas large trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, and panned the North American Free Trade Agreement as a bad deal for U.S.A. that has spawned Massive relocation of companies & jobs.
Trump wrote that his proposed steel and aluminum tariffs will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed.
He also demanded that Canada must…treat our farmers much better, calling its tactics on U.S. agriculture items Highly restrictive.
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[b]Republicans move to block Trump tariffs[/b]
Congressional Republicans are maneuvering to stop President Trump from levying harsh tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, arguing the move strikes at the heart of their economic agenda and could even cause political blowback heading into the 2018 midterms, the Washington Post reports.
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[b]Despite Trump bluster, White House begins to soften on tariffs[/b]
President Trump, facing an angry chorus of protests from leaders of his own party, including House speaker Paul Ryan, insisted on Monday that he would not back down from his plan to impose across-the-board tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. But the White House was devising ways to potentially soften the impact of the measures on major trading partners, the [link=http://nyti.ms/2FXzAtt]New York Times[/link] reports.
The intense maneuvering, which began before Mr. Trumps unexpected announcement of the tariffs last Thursday, is likely to delay any formal rollout of the measures until next week, according to several officials who have been briefed on the deliberations.
[link=http://politi.co/2FkaSCv]Politico[/link]: Gary Cohn and other free-trade advocates inside the White House and the Treasury Department are mounting a last-ditch effort to blunt the impact of Trumps head-turning decision.
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[url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/eu-targets-u-s-shirts-to-motorbikes-in-tariff-retaliation-plan]EU raises the stakes with details of threats to retaliate[/url]
Targeting 2.8 billion euros ($3.5 billion) of American goods, the EU aims to apply a 25 percent tit-for-tat levy on a range of consumer, agricultural and steel products imported from the U.S. if Trump follows through on his tariff threat, according to a list drawn up by the [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/0629846D:BB]European Commission[/link] and obtained by Bloomberg News. The list of targeted U.S. goods — including motorcycles, jeans and bourbon whiskey — sends a political message to Washington about the potential domestic economic costs of making good on the presidents threat.
The European retaliatory list targets imports from the U.S. of shirts, jeans, cosmetics, other consumer goods, motorbikes and pleasure boats worth around 1 billion euros; orange juice, bourbon whiskey, corn and other agricultural products totaling 951 million euros; and steel and other industrial products valued at 854 million euros. The Brussels-based commission, the EUs executive arm, discussed the retaliatory measures with representatives of the blocs governments at a meeting on Monday evening.
Europe may expand the group of targeted American goods should Trump also follow through on a related pledge to impose a 10 percent duty on foreign aluminum. The list obtained by Bloomberg on Tuesday relates only to steel countermeasures.[/QUOTE]
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Also: Gary Cohn expected to quit if tariffs implemented
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[url=http://theweek.com/speedreads/759559/how-jared-kushner-amazon-search-led-looming-trade-war]How a Jared Kushner Amazon search brought us to the brink of a trade war [/url]
[blockquote] At one point during the [2016 presidential] campaign, when Trump wanted to speak more substantively about China, he gave Kushner a summary of his views and then asked him to do some research. Kushner simply went on Amazon, where he was struck by the title of one book, [i]Death by China[/i], co-authored by Peter Navarro. He cold-called Navarro, a well-known trade-deficit hawk, who agreed to join the team as an economic adviser. (When he joined, Navarro was in fact the campaign’s [i]only[/i] economic adviser.)
[/blockquote]
Voila …. 25% tariffs!-
[link=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/china-hammers-u-s-goods-with-tariffs-as-sparks-of-trade-war-fly-idUSKCN1H81J3]China responds with additional tariffs on US products[/link]
China has increased tariffs by up to 25 percent on 128 U.S. products including frozen pork, wine and certain fruits and nuts, escalating a spat between the worlds biggest economies in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel.
Looks like the Chinese are keeping soy tariffs, the real stinger to Red states, in their back pocket for now.
Not a trade war. More like a trade “skirmish” so far.-
I don’t really get this trade war. China get’s to rip off the USA and the rest of the world with no consequences. They steal IP non-stop. Weather it’s ripping off car designs, stealing technology, or movies/music.
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You don’t get it because it doesn’t make sense.
You can’t fix IP theft by putting forward steel and aluminum tariffs while citing national security.
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The problem is that addressing IP theft aggressively helps blue states and doesn’t fire up Trump non-college white base in the industiral Midwest.
So it’s all about steel … which muddies the trade discussion.
With focused attention, Trump could probably build a global coalition of developed nations and develop a joint strategy to address Chinese intellectual property theft…. but he probably won’t.
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I don’t necessarily think that’s only a blue state issue. I had posted a article from Jalopnik where they talk about Chinese car knock offs. The #3 car on their list looks just like a BMW X5 which I believe comes from Spartenberg SC. Red states lose money too.
[h2][/h2] [link=https://jalopnik.com/the-ten-greatest-chinese-knockoff-cars-ever-made-1694449178]https://jalopnik.com/the-…s-ever-made-1694449178[/link]-
But red states aren’t going to think a Beemer ripoff is any concern of theirs, that’s a Liberal’s type of car. Besides, to most people a Beemer is a German car & Germany takes the hit, Germany another Euro-Socialist country.
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how about their pork production?
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
how about their pork production?
That’s a shot across Trump’s bow by the Chinese.
It is a clear warning that the Chinese can and will target politically sensitive economic sectors that could hurt Trump and the GOP.-
They’ll just have to enjoy some szechuan schnauzer. China to me is basically non-compliant on the things already mentioned like protecting IP. I think my Trump card would be something like we’ll wipe away debt we owe China for every knock off they have. $10 million in debt for every knock off Starbucks you have. $1000 write downs for every fake iPhone. $500k for a fake KFC. etc….
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The problem is that we need to borrow money for our increasing national debt & the Chinese have been willing to loan us the money. Risky for them too but if they stop loaning us money we are in deep sh1te requiring us to <GASP> actually raise taxes to pay down our debts.
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Quote from Frumious
The problem is that we need to borrow money for our increasing national debt & the Chinese have been willing to loan us the money. Risky for them too but if they stop loaning us money we are in deep sh1te requiring us to <GASP> actually raise taxes to pay down our debts.
That would be catastrophic and about as close to the end game… the final moves before an all-out hot war … as could be imagined. … and it could go poorly for China since the US could choose default in that situation.
There’s an old adage: “If you owe the bank $10,000 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $4,000,000,000,000 that’s the bank’s problem.”-
The leverage goes both ways. We could default but what’s the outcome of default? No good by any means.
There is no no-fault default. China’s problem, yes, but we would hardly be isolated from the fallout. It’s likely the economic MAD.
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kind of a tangent from trade but I’m of the opinion that we should not be borrowing money at all and we probably shouldn’t have had tax cuts. Spend what you take in, balanced budget amendment or whatever. Like I see all the swampy behavior on buying expensive furniture, doors, private plane travel, taking your wife on a vacation, playing golf every week, and it’s like time to get woke as the kids say. Cut the BS. Austerity needs to happen in the political ranks.
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Quote from DICOM_Dan
kind of a tangent from trade but I’m of the opinion that we should not be borrowing money at all and we probably shouldn’t have had tax cuts. Spend what you take in, balanced budget amendment or whatever. Like I see all the swampy behavior on buying expensive furniture, doors, private plane travel, taking your wife on a vacation, playing golf every week, and it’s like time to get woke as the kids say. Cut the BS. Austerity needs to happen in the political ranks.
I don’t recall you posting this prior to 2016. Let’s all just be honest (and I agree with you about borrowing, always have) and talk about the real problems, even though they probably won’t change, ie spending.
They’ve even changed the definition of austerity in a lot of countries. It is survival living, but any cut to anything has become called “austerity”. Weird time we live in.-
Quote from Dr. ****er
Quote from DICOM_Dan
kind of a tangent from trade but I’m of the opinion that we should not be borrowing money at all and we probably shouldn’t have had tax cuts. Spend what you take in, balanced budget amendment or whatever. Like I see all the swampy behavior on buying expensive furniture, doors, private plane travel, taking your wife on a vacation, playing golf every week, and it’s like time to get woke as the kids say. Cut the BS. Austerity needs to happen in the political ranks.
I don’t recall you posting this prior to 2016. Let’s all just be honest (and I agree with you about borrowing, always have) and talk about the real problems, even though they probably won’t change, ie spending.
They’ve even changed the definition of austerity in a lot of countries. It is survival living, but any cut to anything has become called “austerity”. Weird time we live in.
what specifically haven’t I posted? I can recall even saying that I think we should cancel trips and use WebEx.
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