-
Oil
Im starting to think its getting close to buy time
The Saudis wanted to Kill American Fracking but consolidation in the industry has made this more resistant than they thought and the rest of worlds producers are actually hurting worse than the US guys.
Pressure is mounting on the Saudis
next half year is time to buy the Big boys -
209 Replies
-
I’ll take the other side of that bet. … sort of …
2016 average oil prices stay around/below $60/barrel.
A bit up from here, but still a challenging investing environment.-
Im looking at this from a different angle
The price rises when the Saudis want it to rise. I would love to be able to read their mind but all I can do is try to guess
Im not as much concerned about the 2015 as the price next year and most importantly when these big boys the BP Exxon Chevron etc bottom
Usually these companies bottom 4-9 months before their respective commodity starts to correct itself
That’s what Im looking for….. I want to buy BP and Exxon as close to their bottom as possible
-
look at something like fidelity FSESX. pays dividend, it’s gotten hammered down, still consist of quality companies.
-
I don’t buy funds ……. ever
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-10/small-tea-party-meeting-has-a-special-guest-big-oil]http://www.bloomberg.com/…-special-guest-big-oil[/link]
Since we’re talking about oil.
Big oil starts astroturfing the Tea Party movement.
The featured speaker at the July meeting of the Northern Virginia Tea Party was Miles Morin, the state coordinator of Virginia Energy Citizens. About three dozen people came to hear him in a sports bar just outside the Capital Beltway in Falls Church. He took the stage following the Lords Prayer, the Pledge of Allegiance, a retired Air Force colonels advice on emergency preparednesslock and loadand a retired Exxon Mobil Corp. environmental advisers presentation on the myth of climate change.
Morin’s talk originally was billed as being about how the radical environmental movement poses a serious threat to our freedoms, our property. That description was removed from an online invitation after it was [link=https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/07/07/oil-lobby-workshop/]reported by [i]The Intercept[/i][/link], a news website. In the revised iteration, Morin was to share information on how to tell local, state and federal officials why you support pro-energy policies.
Virginia Energy Citizens, which describes itself as a grassroots coalition, is sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute, the main lobbying group for the U.S. oil industry. The fine print on the bottom of Energy Citizens website acknowledges the relationship. Morin works for Capital Results, a public relations firm in Virginia and North Carolina, according to his biography on the companys website.
The oil and gas industry is resisting a string of new regulations this year from the Obama administration, affecting methane leaks, fracking on federal land, crude by rail, and carbon emissions from power plants. Faced with a President who wants to make fighting climate change part of its legacy, lobbyists are instead taking their fight to the streets. The Tea Party meeting offers a rare glimpse of their tactics on the ground.
It also illustrates a new twist on the age-old Washington influence game: Lobbyists and paid consultants often try to shape public opinion with advertising, but attending meetings and passing themselves off as grassroots activists is new, said Craig Holman, the government affairs lobbyist for Public Citizen, a Washington-based watchdog group. It could create the appearance of a public outcry to lawmakers who don’t realize lobbyists are behind it, he said. -
Quote from kpack123
I don’t buy funds ……. ever
Respect.
American fracking might get crushed if low prices stick around for long. Apparently too much leverage and debt? Can’t make money fracking at these oil prices. I see you have mentioned this in post 92 above, looks like.-
Oil dipped below $20 a barrel … briefly
-
Is this good for boaters? Looks like springs coming early. I know it’s rather expensive to top off a motor boat (usually).
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
Is this good for boaters? Looks like springs coming early. I know it’s rather expensive to top off a motor boat (usually).
Oh yeah.
I think this might be a big boating season. Families getting out on the lake more … just because it’s something to do that doesn’t violate social distancing.
But the party places where boats go to dock and raft off one another 4 deep … I don’t think we’ll be seeing that this year … not until the vaccine gets out.
(I generally use about 20 gallons of diesel per year for my sailboat … so gas prices don’t really matter to me )
-
Got an a Alert this weekend from governor desantis
No more than 10 people on a boat and boats must be at least 50 feet apart
The weather here has been amazing and when I looked out over the gulf yesterday it looked like an armada
-
I was rub-a-dub’n in the hot tub with champagne and some hotties
kpack looked over with a “get off my lawn” look
we know what this is really about, kpack
you had to buy a bigger boat than you really needed – LOL! I wonder if kpack has a rug that occasionally blows away in the wind -
Analyst on Bloomberg just now. Oil potentially in the 10s … could be single digit $ price /brl
-
Trump said yesterday he talked to MBS and MBS was gonna talk to Putin about lowering output. This was all via Tweet. His good friend MBS. The known killer of journalist. Guess that’s why TRump probably likes him.
-
Quote from kpack123
Got an a Alert this weekend from governor desantis
No more than 10 people on a boat and boats must be at least 50 feet apart
The weather here has been amazing and when I looked out over the gulf yesterday it looked like an armada
That would be cool to see. Our open space trails in Colorado are actually packed with people even when snowing. People are respecting the 6 feet apart rule even on the Trails. I’d love to fish for my dinner everyday if I could. It ain’t easy bagging and Elk though… it’s a one time action and lasts you about 6 months worth of meat.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/oil-holds-rebound-from-six-year-low-as-u-s-crude-supplies-fall]http://www.bloomberg.com/…-s-crude-supplies-fall[/link]
Oil hits 6-year low today.-
No way I see $30 coming. That”t be a good time to back the truck up to oil sector investing.
-
Bottom is what I’m look for
-
Regardless there is going to be a lot of opportunity for buying stocks here
The American Shale producers are not going away. The Saudis cant put them under liked they hoped, but there will be winners and losers as this industry consolidates
I wish I was a little smarter and could pick the winners but Im not so my plan is to start nibbling at the big boys soon namely BP Chevron Exxon and try to dollar cost average them while building a position
Kinda did the same thing with big pharma from 2009-2011. Hopefully I get the same results -
Quote from macrophallus
No way I see $30 coming. That”t be a good time to back the truck up to oil sector investing.
Blew through 30.
Quote from kpack123
Bottom is what I’m look for
Oil down 20% for 2016.
but …
[url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-14/oil-resumes-drop-as-iran-loads-post-sanctions-cargo-to-europe]Traders’ long positions in oil go to the highest level since June 2015.[/url] Looks like the market might be trying to call the bottom.-
Ive said before
Im not smart enough to predict the bottom so Im dollar cost averaging for the next 6-8 months .
I think there is a good chance we either have seen the bottom or are close so by averaging I hope to get the best bang for my buck-
The fallout of loss cost oil continues while we stay distracted by the sports of today’s election cycle. Another Republican controlled state, Alaska who depended on free handouts from oil finds it coffers dwindling down while they never saved or calculated for the inevitable rainy day.
Good news for those who think education and teachers are a waste of money, cuts to education and teachers are leaving Alaska too. Yippee. That means a leaner bill for running government & lower taxes & busting teachers unions. Move over Kansas, you have company.
[link=http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/us/oil-collapse-drains-alaskas-wide-ranging-education-system.html]http://www.nytimes.com/20…-education-system.html[/link]
Some other school systems and universities around the country like in Milwaukee and Baton Rouge, La. are also struggling with new budget cuts, or with old ones lingering from the recession. The problem up here, though, is [link=http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/us/as-oil-money-melts-alaska-mulls-first-income-tax-in-35-years.html]oil[/link], and the taxes on it that Alaska collects to pay for most state expenditures.
Drillers are pumping less, and at around $40 a barrel, the state is collecting less in taxes on the oil that is pumped, making for a state budget crater of crisis proportions. The Republican-controlled Legislature has so far been loath to consider new taxes in an election year, and education, along with health and welfare, accounts for about two-thirds of the state budget.
The deeper story, educators and state officials said, is that a long-delayed day of reckoning over education policies and promises made in a different era, under different circumstances, has arrived.
With no agreement in sight on how to fix the nearly $3.5 billion revenue deficit from the [link=http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/us/as-oil-money-melts-alaska-mulls-first-income-tax-in-35-years.html]oil collapse[/link] which has erased about two-thirds of the state budget educators said that rumors and speculation from Juneau, the capital, were only making things worse.
-
-
-
-
-
-
[link=http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-production-reaches-3-year-high-2015-8]http://www.businessinside…hes-3-year-high-2015-8[/link]
OPEC production spiked to 3-year high in July. US production continues to expand despite low prices. -
Fracking certainly changed the calculus of oil as far as supply and, while it’s nice to see OPEC & Putin crushed, the turmoil in the Middle East will only be exacerbated by continued low oil prices. Additionally, the other half of the coin is the demand side.
China’s tanking and it’s getting so bad the CCP has joined the currency war(s)–will be interesting over the next few years as country after country devalues it’s currency to cope with the worldwide debt overhang and attempt to gain an advantage over other countries. Europe’s kicked the can down the road for what? another few months? regarding Greece. Commodity prices worldwide are collapsing.
IDK when the bottom will be for oil but I don’t think we’ve seen it yet.
That said, big oil producer stocks are a lot more attractive now than they were when oil was > $100/bbl.-
heard some talk about Cuba and how they might be one of the next oil producers as companies will want to rush in a suck the resources from the island.
They also approved Shell arctic drilling. Russia’s been investing heavily in the arctic with military bases. That’s going to be one of the fights in the future, who has claims to the arctic.-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
They also approved Shell arctic drilling. Russia’s been investing heavily in the arctic with military bases. That’s going to be one of the fights in the future, who has claims to the arctic.
[url=http://www.theverge.com/2015/9/28/9407737/shell-arctic-drilling-stopped]Shell abandons Arctic drilling after disappointing results and citing regulatory environment in US[/url]“Shell will now cease further exploration activity in offshore Alaska for the foreseeable future,” said Marvin Odum, director of Shell Upstream Americas, in a press statement. “This decision reflects both the Burger J well result, the high costs associated with the project, and the challenging and unpredictable federal regulatory environment in offshore Alaska.”
-
I actually wonder how much is related to gas being circa $2 a gallon. If there’s not a lot of money being made in gas it might not be worth the effort.
I believe I read some things about fracking jobs getting cut.-
Easier to blame Obama’s “job-killing” regulations. But what about the subsidies.
-
[url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/shell-reports-70-percent-drop-in-profit-after-oil-price-collapse]
Shell Makes Biggest Net Loss in at Least a Decade on Price Slump[/url][/h1]
Royal Dutch Shell Plc reported its biggest net loss in at least a decade as it wrote down the value of assets and lowered its oil-price expectations.
Profit adjusted for one-time items and inventory changes dropped 70 percent to $1.8 billion, The Hague-based Shell said Thursday in a statement. That missed the $2.92 billion average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.-
The big question is do they sustain the dividend until oil rebounds
Personally Im cycling money into the big oil boys while they are down………………they may go lower but oil wont stay low forever.
Out of favor today is tommorrows big winner-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-07/kuwait-sees-oil-glut-of-up-to-five-years-on-increasing-supply]http://www.bloomberg.com/…s-on-increasing-supply[/link]
Kuwaiti OPEC Minister sees oversupply of oil for up to 5 years.-
There’s definitely an appetite for cheap oil. car sales are still high and the cars that are selling are trucks and SUV.
[link=http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/business/us-auto-industry-post-best-sales-month-in-decade.html?_r=0]http://www.nytimes.com/20…th-in-decade.html?_r=0[/link]
-
I’m capitulating. I have a bunch of shares of VDE that I am going to tax loss harvest as I rebalance year end.
Oil is down and will probably stay down for a good while. Guess I’ll just take the tax advantages and get out. -
The time to buy the big boys is here. ITs a good entry point for BP Conoco Phillips Exxon
Probably get them a little cheaper on dips but I am slowly loading up big oil
This is a buying opportunity for the big boys and should be for at least the next 6 months -
The Saudis main goal is to curtail American shale producers and most of those guys are tapped out.
They will all start cutting production in 2016 -
Opec just announced an increase in production output today.
Maybe some cuts late 2016. But I would think they’d want to start swing lots of higher cost producers going belly up before they took their feet off their throats.
-
Im a buyer of Big Oil now.
The truck is backed up and I have started loading and WHen they go lower (and they will) I will buy more until the truck is full
Im not going to be able to pick the bottom but I can average to it a lot closer this way -
Talk to me in 30 days. I’m selling …. if I get back in after the first of the year after a tax harvest I’ll let you know 🙂
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
[url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/wti-oil-at-32-a-barrel-is-conceivable-reality-citigroup-says]Citigroup calls possibility of $32 oil[/url]
-
Started nibbling this week
BP at 52 week low
-
-
I’m thinking this is going to come with some consequences. People have been buying cars like mad, and they’re buying a lot of trucks and SUVs. Thus guzzling more gas.
-
This has been the Saudi’s biggest Stand since the 70’s
Its going to change the major players in the Supply chain for decades
My bet is sticking with the big boys that can weather the storm because Im not smart enough to pick the winners out of the little guys. -
That is 1 conservative tenet I agree with, the cheaper a commodity is the more it is wasted. But alternative energy is on the move & hopefully a redux of something like Reagan removing solar panels from the White House doesn’t happen. Subsidies should be reduced from fossil fuels since it is so cheap & alternative energy should be given the boost it deserves.
-
In a way the Saudis screwed themselves
They secretly Supported Islamic groups who hate the West forcing the west to find alternative sources of the only commodity they have
Now there are legitmate contenders to the Saudis because of the price of War and terror-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/-20-oil-possible-for-goldman-as-forecasts-cut-on-growing-glut]http://www.bloomberg.com/…ts-cut-on-growing-glut[/link]
Goldman Sachs calls for potential of $20/barrel oil.
The global surplus of oil is even bigger than Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thought and that could drive prices as low as $20 a barrel.
While its not the base-case scenario, a failure to reduce production fast enough may require prices near that level to clear the oversupply, Goldman said in a report e-mailed Friday while cutting its Brent and WTI crude forecasts through 2016. TheInternational Energy Agency predicted that crude stockpiles will diminish in the second half of next year as supply outside OPEC declines by the most since 1992.
The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016, Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in the report. We continue to view U.S. shale as the likely near-term source of supply adjustment.-
Dollar cost average
Bought a little here and will buy a little more soon. In 10 years it wont matter from my perspective
Its interesting stuff. I wish I was smart enough to call the bottom
-
-
-
-
-
I don’t like that head line. Net Loss. They made $1.8 billion right.
-
Took a dump this week. Glad I got out.
-
Buy time
-
Maybe.
But there’s still a whole lotta “catch a falling knife to it”.
Could still have another 30% leg down (or more) on a barrell of oil through 2016.-
[url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-22/extreme-oil-bears-bet-on-25-20-and-even-15-a-barrel-in-2016]
Extreme Oil Bears Bet on $25, $20 and Even $15 a Barrel in 2016[/url][/h1]
The bearish wagers come as OPECs effective scrapping of output limits, Irans anticipated return to the market and the resilience of production from countries such as Russia raise the prospect of a prolonged global oil glut.
“We view the oversupply as continuing well into next year,” Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note on Tuesday, adding theres a risk oil prices would fall to $20 a barrel to force production shutdowns if mild weather continues to damp demand.
The bearish outlook has prompted investors to buy put options — which give them the right to sell at a predetermined price and time — at strike prices of $30, $25, $20 and even $15 a barrel, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange and the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is currently trading at about $36 a barrel.-
THe mild winter is definitely a concern
But Im still adding to positions and When I sell some winners after the first of the year………………..I will add some more
THis is once every 20 years opportunity-
THis is once every 20 years opportunity
That part I pretty much agree with. If you’re going multi-year long on the position the combination of stock price recovery and the big dividends of the oil majors make total yield look like a pretty good bet.
The big boys will probably pick up market share as the smaller higher cost producers go belly up too, which bodes well for the mega oil companies.-
Basically the Saudis are trying to kill American Production
Look at your own area what has happened with the frackers. Most are still pumping but the wells are short lived and there is no real new drilling going on right now. Once these wells go dry………..these guys go bankrupt………………….big boys step in buy up the rights……………..price goes back up and the big boys double and increase their dividends
A big no brainer
the only hard part is deciding when to get in…..when is the bottom
Im not that smart to pick the bottom so Im just going average it and keep buying in smaller units.
That way I get as much as can as low as I can-
Are you picking individual stocks? Going with the Biggies Exxon/Chevron etc?
-
I still like the fund FSESX which invests in producers. It’s been beaten down hard. Fortunately when we had to redo 403b’s I had to get out of it before it get hammered down. Put a little bit of dough back into it in the high 30 range.
-
Strictly big boys
In times like this the little guys go bankrupt…………………….the big boys buy up all their assets
Thats what happening
Im buying BP Conoco Phillips Exxon Chevron etc
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I would tread carefully with energy sector investing.
When big hedge fund guys come out in the media talking it up, they are trying to get suckers to buy their bad investments.
Back when oil tanked in 1985 and decimated the economy of Houston, it took 20 yrs for the price to come back. Oil can stay cheap for a very long time.
The guys who will make money on this are the private equity types who buy up the distressed debt of these companies — us regular folks don’t have access to those kind of investment vehicles.-
Exactly
That’s what’s happening too many smaller producers popped up because of the high price of oil
Everyone makes money over 80$ a barrel, they make very easy money at 100$ a barrel
Not a lot of money to be made under 40-50$ a barrel unles you are a Saudi or similar
So what happens……..the small players go under ……… The ones with deep pockets buy up the little guys dirt cheap……. And the rich get richer especially when the price goes back
UpThat’s why I’m buying the big boys….this is one of those once in 20-30 yr opportunity
Personally I think this is the beginning of a good entry point, I suspect it will get lower but I can never pick the bottom so I will average as close to it as I can
But 5-7 yrs down the road this will look real nice to n portfolio
-
Falling oil prices killing Alaska government’s payouts to taxpayers, is considering an actual income tax on residents for the 1st time in 35 years. Wonder what this will do to state and politics when a Red state receiving payments from government has to actually have its citizens make tax payments to government to make its government and services run?
Who needs government?-
How much do they get per year
-
[link=http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/us/as-oil-money-melts-alaska-mulls-first-income-tax-in-35-years.html]http://www.nytimes.com/20…e-tax-in-35-years.html[/link]
This is the nations least-taxed state, where oil royalties and energy taxes once paid for 90 percent of state functions. Oil money was so plentiful that residents received annual dividend checks from a state savings fund that could total more than $8,000 for a family of four arriving each autumn, as predictable as the first snowfall.
The fund has paid dividends to residents every year since 1982, from $300 to $500 a person in the early years to more than $2,000 this year, based on the funds investments.-
Iran sanctions come off today. They plan to immediately move to around [url=http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/17/oil-price-woes-deepen-as-iran-vows-to-add-500000-barrels-day]500,000 barrels per day[/url] of production.
Expect another 10-20% drop in the oil price and more pain for the stocks.
-
Filling up the tank hasn’t felt so good since back when gas was less than a dollar a gallon.
-
In 99 when I was at Penn State gas was always under a dollar because that was the guy who owned Sheetz home town.
one bad thing about cheap gas is people buying more SUV/trucks. More gas guzzlers on the road. Last year was another record year in auto sales.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
one bad thing about cheap gas is people buying more SUV/trucks. More gas guzzlers on the road. Last year was another record year in auto sales.
Yep.
On the plus side though, cheap oil works like a giant wealth transfer from the investor class (who lose money in their investments due to stock market impacts on oil companies) to the lower/working class who get the equivalent of a large tax cut from cheap gasoline prices.
-
I like cheap gas as much as anyone but Dan is correct, it’s another replay of the Tragedy of the Commons. It could easily turn and bite us hard.
So enjoy it while it lasts. Good news is that solar & wind is still progressing. Electric cars probably need some help with subsidies and/or credits.
-
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
In 99 when I was at Penn State gas was always under a dollar because that was the guy who owned Sheetz home town.
one bad thing about cheap gas is people buying more SUV/trucks. More gas guzzlers on the road. Last year was another record year in auto sales.
Why are “gas guzzlers” bad?
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I’d disagree on the idea of wealth transfer. People are being laid off from gas companies. My 403b is down just like any other investor(not necessarily a bad thing). And it’s not like I’m that much wealthier because I’m saving 20 bucks on my weekly trip to Marathon. Maybe I’ll buy myself a 6 pack of Stella instead of Busch later.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
I’d disagree on the idea of wealth transfer. People are being laid off from gas companies. My 403b is down just like any other investor(not necessarily a bad thing). And it’s not like I’m that much wealthier because I’m saving 20 bucks on my weekly trip to Marathon. Maybe I’ll buy myself a 6 pack of Stella instead of Busch later.
Hah! Bof A agrees with me…… I get credit for putting forward my theory 10 days earlier 🙂
[url=http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-oil-crash-kicking-off-024933523.html]
BofA: The oil crash is kicking off one of the largest wealth transfers in human history[/url][/h1]
-
I’ll buy that in the article they quote someone as “will push back $3 trillion a year from oil producers to global consumers, setting the stage for one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history.”
I think the premise is that low cost fuel is somehow making the average Joe wealthy is not correct. Saving a $20 a week on gas isn’t making anyone wealthy. Buying a big car because gas is cheap ain’t gonna make you wealthier either. People are financing larger amounts, over longer periods of time than ever to buy cars. -
T Boone Pickens on CNBC said Oil has already bottomed
He is usually right-
Could be a lot of wishful thinking. Yes, large car & truck sales are picking up but the economy is not quite so hot here or in China or elsewhere. The Saudis want to protect their market and Iran will be coming online. Meantime alternative energy is still growing, so much so that Nevada’s Republicans just moved to protect their fossil fuel energy supporters over solar.
I’m not sure we’re at bottom yet and that substantial growth in price is upon us for fossil fuels.
-
-
-
-
[link=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-31/oil-falls-after-u-s-drillers-bring-back-rigs-for-a-fifth-week]http://www.bloomberg.com/…-rigs-for-a-fifth-week[/link]
Oil back below $40 with inventories rising. Downward price pressure likely to continue.-
Up .. and back down.
I can’t believe it’s been two years since this thread’s last post.
Slowly ran up to the mid-70s over the last couple of years. But wow has it been a plunge over the last little bit. Back around $50 a barrel again.
____
Interestingly, I was listening to a Bloomberg analyst who said that the old adage that low oil prices are good for the US economy no longer holds.
The theory: We now have so much economic activity tied up on the production side that the economic benefits from low gas prices are outweighed by the lack of jobs and investment in production when prices drop.
It’s at best a wash, maybe even a bit of a hurt for the US for prices to go very low.
-
-
I can see the course ter to that being people have more money in their pockets to spend. It’s been about $8 less for me to fill my Jeep everyweek now that prices are down under $3 again for 89.
-
There’s also some good stuff about the auto industry wanting to US to mandate higher octane. This would help meet MPG goals.
-
Qatar announces that it is leaving OPEC to refocus on gas production instead of oil.
-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-09/bulls-beware-the-2020-oil-market-is-quickly-turning-ugly?srnd=premium]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-09/bulls-beware-the-2020-oil-market-is-quickly-turning-ugly?srnd=premium[/link]
Bulls Beware: The 2020 Oil Market Is Quickly Turning Ugly[/h1]
Excitement is fading fast. The first official assessment of 2020 comes from the International Energy Agency on Friday, but a first look at forecasts from consultants and traders for supply and demand balances show persistent surpluses, not the deficit that was expected to underpin rising prices.
The culprits: rising shale production, a slowing global economy and the prospect of a deepening trade war.
-
-
-
-
Quote from kpack123
Im starting to think its getting close to buy time
The Saudis wanted to Kill American Fracking but consolidation in the industry has made this more resistant than they thought and the rest of worlds producers are actually hurting worse than the US guys.
Pressure is mounting on the Saudis
next half year is time to buy the Big boys
4 years later. How did your 2015 oil play turn out ?
-
Bought BP at 30$ yielding 2$ a share
Its at 42$ now plus over 8$ in dividends
67% return in 4 years
Not too shabby
-
Honestly thought it would have done better
-
And since then they bumped the dividend up to 2.48
So my current yield on original investment is 8.2%
-
-
Quote from kpack123
Bought BP at 30$ yielding 2$ a share
Its at 42$ now plus over 8$ in dividends
67% return in 4 years
Not too shabby
Just as a comparison. VTSAX, the dumbest of all dumb index funds:
Dec 1 2015 $50.79
June 1 2019 $71.49
Dividends $4.14
Comes out to 49%
Overall a good time period to own stocks.
-
Didn’t VTSAX move from $48 to low $70 and have a 2%. dividend over the same time.
-
Quote from DICOM_Dan
Didn’t VTSAX move from $48 to low $70 and have a 2%. dividend over the same time.
Those are the closing prices taken off Yahoo finance. I didn’t go into the actual statements. But yes, that’s what happened.
-
-
-
-
-
well… Iran shooting down a US UAV in the Gulf should help to jack the price a bit.
-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-14/saudi-aramco-contain-fires-at-facilities-attacked-by-drones?srnd=premium]Saudi Oil Output Cut in Half After Drones Strike Aramco Site[/link]
-
Hopefully the price goes up
Next big spike Im getting out of my Exxon BP and COP
-
Trump says we’re “locked and loaded” … Brent just jumped 20% at the open ….
-
Come on Saudi’s. You got our equipment, if you think Iran did it and hurt your business… take a few of there stuff out. We should just watch and enjoy.
-
[link=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/saudi-aramco-share-price-10-spike-after-biggest-ever-ipo-2019-12-1028753870]https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/saudi-aramco-share-price-10-spike-after-biggest-ever-ipo-2019-12-1028753870[/link]
[b]Saudi Aramco spikes after IPO, valuation near $2 Trillion[/b]
[link=https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aramco-stock?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest]Saudi Aramco[/link] shares spiked 10% on its opening day of trading after the company started trading shares publicly on the Tadawul exchange on Wednesday.
The surge in share price means that the company, which earlier this week was valued at $1.7 trillion after raising $25.6 billion in its IPO, is now worth a whopping $1.9 trillion. That dwarfs the market capitalizations of the biggest US giants, like Microsoft, Apple, and Google parent Alphabet.
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman had been seeking a valuation of $2 trillion for the state-owned oil giant, to help finance his Vision 2030 plan of diversifying the Saudi economy away from oil.
[/QUOTE]
-
So they’re worth more than Apple. hmmmmm
-
Except Apple hasnt murdered anyone.
-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/iea-sees-first-global-oil-demand-drop-in-a-decade-on-coronavirus?srnd=premium]IEA Sees First Global Oil Demand Drop in a Decade[/link][/h3]
The coronavirus is battering Chinas economy, the International Energy Agency said.
-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-01/oil-looks-into-abyss-as-coronavirus-threatens-demand-contraction?srnd=premium]Oil Looks Into Abyss as Coronavirus Threatens Demand Contraction[/link][/h3]
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/opec-fails-to-reach-deal-as-russia-refuses-deeper-oil-cuts]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-06/opec-fails-to-reach-deal-as-russia-refuses-deeper-oil-cuts
[/link]
[h1]OPEC+ Talks Collapse, Blowing Hole in Russia-Saudi Oil Alliance, Price Plummets[/h1]OPEC+ talks ended in dramatic failure, auguring the end of a diplomatic alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned crude prices and changed the balance of power in the Middle East.
Oil fell more than 9% after Russia refused to bend to the will of Saudi Arabia, whose high-stakes gamble pushed the group past breaking point. Riyadh wanted to slash production to offset the hit to demand from the coronavirus. But Moscow had a different idea.
The Kremlins budget is more resilient to low prices than its Middle Eastern allies. Russia also argued that cheap crude will help wipe out competition from U.S. shale and turn investors against companies that are already struggling, said a person familiar with the discussions.
[/QUOTE]Analyst on Bloomberg earlier today: Expect price of a $40/barrel soon with a bias toward $30
