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  • Nothing Burger

    Posted by benoit.elens on March 25, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    Please use this thread to argue whether COVID-19 is a generational pandemic or a nothing burger.  Please let the other threads reflect discussions about their titles instead of rehashing the same argument repeatedly.  Thanks.

    pranav.devata replied 2 years, 6 months ago 60 Members · 1,918 Reply
  • 1 Reply
  • carmenrenogray_192

    Member
    March 25, 2020 at 1:44 pm

    Interesting editorial in the WSJ today from two Stanford professors suggesting it might be something akin to a nothing burger.  The basic point is that all guesstimates on mortality rates are way too high, by orders of magnitude, because we dont know the denominator.  Specifically, since we havent been testing everyone, we really dont know who has this virus.  We dont know how many are infected and either dont get sick, or recover at home and never get tested.  Were testing only the ill and the very ill so we are artificially elevating the mortality rate by underestimating the extent of the disease.  Read the piece, its very interesting and convincing.    The would argue that we should not shut down our economy for a disease that is no more lethal than seasonal flu.

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 25, 2020 at 1:45 pm

      Impossible burger is what I had for lunch. It is a vegetarian burger but has the texture and flavor of real meat. Outstanding.

      • katiemckee84_223

        Member
        March 25, 2020 at 3:46 pm

        Quote from Flounce

        Impossible burger is what I had for lunch. It is a vegetarian burger but has the texture and flavor of real meat. Outstanding.

         
        Haha, was it the whopper version? I think it sounded pretty good, huh?

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 25, 2020 at 2:10 pm

      Quote from beset rad

      Interesting editorial in the WSJ today from two Stanford professors suggesting it might be something akin to a nothing burger.  The basic point is that all guesstimates on mortality rates are way too high, by orders of magnitude, because we dont know the denominator.  Specifically, since we havent been testing everyone, we really dont know who has this virus.  We dont know how many are infected and either dont get sick, or recover at home and never get tested.  Were testing only the ill and the very ill so we are artificially elevating the mortality rate by underestimating the extent of the disease.  Read the piece, its very interesting and convincing.    The would argue that we should not shut down our economy for a disease that is no more lethal than seasonal flu.

       
      Haha. Go read my posts on the first few pages of the longest thread for the preview.
       
      I’m not a Stanford professor but I play one on Aunt Minnie.

      • arg2626

        Member
        March 25, 2020 at 2:22 pm

        Isnt the numerator enough to be scary? When had Italy 7000+ Casualties due to flu in a matter of a few months except the spanish flu (a pandemic)?

        • Robbro524_990

          Member
          March 25, 2020 at 2:26 pm

          As with most things, the answer lies in the middle, in my opinion. That being said, I’d still take this little bug seriously.

          Like Taleb says, you’d rather over-react (and potentially save thousands of lives) than under-react. We will see how these Stanford people feel when it really spreads through Cali…;)

          • jtpollock

            Member
            March 25, 2020 at 2:35 pm

            I’m changing my doom prediction.

            This thing is in generation 20, not 5. It already went through the population in January. Now it’s just taking out the old and sick. It will flatten out in the next few weeks and then back to normal.

            • cytek1

              Member
              March 25, 2020 at 2:40 pm

              I think NYC would disagree with your assessment. Where were all the hospitalizations in January?

              It may end up a nothing burger, but your timeline makes no sense vs reality.

              • nenajdenkoliz_814

                Member
                April 9, 2020 at 12:51 pm

                Look at numbers not emotion or propaganda .  NYC has been egregiously exaggerated All of a sudden they dont need a million ventilators or even a quarter of that. Its a total joke and something is going on that we are not aware of. The response to this entire disease has not been based in reality. 

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  April 9, 2020 at 1:19 pm

                  Hrmm then why does my system have 2400 COVID-19 inpatients and need the military to help build a 300-bed hospital on the university’s football field?

                  • nenajdenkoliz_814

                    Member
                    April 9, 2020 at 1:22 pm

                    System? You let me know when they start using the “mass graves” they spoke of and all the other hysterical measures. I find it so odd that all deaths seem to now be classified as Covid . I guess everyone is cured of heart disease, strokes, standard pneumonia and flu.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:29 pm

                      (Hospital system). Deaths or admissions? These are PCR-proven cases.

                    • nenajdenkoliz_814

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:36 pm

                      According to CDC and Dr. Birx we are only nation counting presumptive and proven cases. Tired of arguing on internet. Stay safe from this nothing burger .

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:41 pm

                      Dude  makes the effort to create a new forum name, makes three posts, then says he’s tired of arguing on the internet.  *rollseyes* 

                    • nenajdenkoliz_814

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:45 pm

                      Scientist, I havent used Aunt Minnie in 5 years and forgot my original name . Only a pathetic whining liberal from Reddit or similar looks up profiles and prior posts.You people are pathetic. Go cry and hide from this scary scary disease. Rolls eyes? How emasculated can you be?. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:50 pm

                      I guess I’m dumb to be sitting here and trying explain that reality is… you know… real. But with these volumes we all need a hobby!
                       
                      I’ll update about what I’m seeing here in NY but it’s time to drop the arguments. People seem genuinely upset.  

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:55 pm

                      Does anyone here have any doubt who xj62 is?

                    • nenajdenkoliz_814

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 1:59 pm

                      My name is listed in profile unlike some other people 

                    • savpruitt_28

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 2:53 pm

                      *gasp*
                       
                      He’s evolving before our very eyes! Now Robert Plank. I wonder what his final form will be?

                    • nenajdenkoliz_814

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 3:09 pm

                      I put my name . Look me up on Twitter. I do love the conspiracy theories however. Very entertaining. I have no interest in this forum.Rather pathetic to be honest. Twitter is way more entertaining.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 3:14 pm

                      I have to say, this forum has provided a solid day’s worth of wholesome, free entertainment during a pandemic.

                    • savpruitt_28

                      Member
                      April 9, 2020 at 3:16 pm

                      Quote from Robert Plank

                      I put my name . Look me up on Twitter. I do love the conspiracy theories however. Very entertaining. I have no interest in this forum.Rather pathetic to be honest. Twitter is way more entertaining.

                       
                      You realize your user profile is hidden from us so unless you are Robert Plank (and there are many Robert Plank’s on twitter) you are not helping anything with that statement. But if you are honest then you should just leave, or better yet, I’ll just block you from go. Have a nice day.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 2:02 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      Dude  makes the effort to create a new forum name, makes three posts, then says he’s tired of arguing on the internet.  *rollseyes* 

                      LOL. People are weird.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 9, 2020 at 2:43 pm

                      Dang, I set the line at 6 hours for the Return of Kpack via a different handle. Took the over and lost.

            • katiemckee84_223

              Member
              March 25, 2020 at 4:19 pm

              Quote from docholliday126

              I’m changing my doom prediction.

              This thing is in generation 20, not 5. It already went through the population in January. Now it’s just taking out the old and sick. It will flatten out in the next few weeks and then back to normal.

               
              I agree, the “curve” (and we can’t ‘possibly know where we’re on it as a result of not knowing that millions had this, are asymptomatic or already beat it) will peak this weekend with hysteria but the deceleration phase is in. Calling off the dogs on Monday would be the right thing to do, and that’s what Trump wants to do but that weakling — who doesn’t know what the difference is between confirmed vs. estimated in the denominator means — wants to sacrifice the country for reckless “safety” as in anti-human bubble measures for the few who face a challenge each second they live, and similarly every with the bad flu that no one cares a flying F about. But now this is big scare because the global warming fraud wasn’t personal or convincing enough to use as an excuse to control the sheeple.

              • cytek1

                Member
                March 25, 2020 at 6:16 pm

                Quote from Intermittent Blasting

                Quote from docholliday126

                I’m changing my doom prediction.

                This thing is in generation 20, not 5. It already went through the population in January. Now it’s just taking out the old and sick. It will flatten out in the next few weeks and then back to normal.

                I agree, the “curve” (and we can’t ‘possibly know where we’re on it as a result of not knowing that millions had this, are asymptomatic or already beat it) will peak this weekend with hysteria but the deceleration phase is in. Calling off the dogs on Monday would be the right thing to do, and that’s what Trump wants to do but that weakling — who doesn’t know what the difference is between confirmed vs. estimated in the denominator means — wants to sacrifice the country for reckless “safety” as in anti-human bubble measures for the few who face a challenge each second they live, and similarly every with the bad flu that no one cares a flying F about. But now this is big scare because the global warming fraud wasn’t personal or convincing enough to use as an excuse to control the sheeple.

                 
                Your post would make sense if there weren’t young healthy people dying from this. Sure the mortality is no doubt significantly lower than anyone estimates, and it may end up a “nothing burger” in the sense that it passes relatively quickly and in the grand scheme of things doesn’t kill all that many people, but come on, the flu this is not. When was the last time you heard about healthy 30-40yo’s dying of the flu, or healthy 30 yo’s being admitted for flu at any point.
                 
                It doesn’t matter if more people died in Italy in 2017 than have died so far, they weren’t backlogged at the morgues and deciding who gets ventilated and who gets to die in 2017.
                 
                I’m assuming by weakling you are referring to Fauci or some democrat, but you don’t seem to be realizing that it doesn’t necessarily matter what the numerator or denominator is at this point. Even if it IS not very fatal, if it could overwhelm the healthcare system, like it is currently doing in New York, and lead to people dying needlessly, like in Italy, then steps should be taken to prevent that. If you want to keep the economy chugging then fine, but everywhere is going to need to set up a lot of extra beds and get ready for a few weeks or months of unpleasantness.

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 25, 2020 at 6:23 pm

                  Quote from Valerian

                  Quote from Intermittent Blasting

                  Quote from docholliday126

                  I’m changing my doom prediction.

                  This thing is in generation 20, not 5. It already went through the population in January. Now it’s just taking out the old and sick. It will flatten out in the next few weeks and then back to normal.

                  I agree, the “curve” (and we can’t ‘possibly know where we’re on it as a result of not knowing that millions had this, are asymptomatic or already beat it) will peak this weekend with hysteria but the deceleration phase is in. Calling off the dogs on Monday would be the right thing to do, and that’s what Trump wants to do but that weakling — who doesn’t know what the difference is between confirmed vs. estimated in the denominator means — wants to sacrifice the country for reckless “safety” as in anti-human bubble measures for the few who face a challenge each second they live, and similarly every with the bad flu that no one cares a flying F about. But now this is big scare because the global warming fraud wasn’t personal or convincing enough to use as an excuse to control the sheeple.

                  Your post would make sense if there weren’t young healthy people dying from this. Sure the mortality is no doubt significantly lower than anyone estimates, and it may end up a “nothing burger” in the sense that it passes relatively quickly and in the grand scheme of things doesn’t kill all that many people, but come on, the flu this is not. When was the last time you heard about healthy 30-40yo’s dying of the flu, or healthy 30 yo’s being admitted for flu at any point.

                  It doesn’t matter if more people died in Italy in 2017 than have died so far, they weren’t backlogged at the morgues and deciding who gets ventilated and who gets to die in 2017.

                  I’m assuming by weakling you are referring to Fauci or some democrat, but you don’t seem to be realizing that it doesn’t necessarily matter what the numerator or denominator is at this point. Even if it IS not very fatal, if it could overwhelm the healthcare system, like it is currently doing in New York, and lead to people dying needlessly, like in Italy, then steps should be taken to prevent that. If you want to keep the economy chugging then fine, but everywhere is going to need to set up a lot of extra beds and get ready for a few weeks or months of unpleasantness.

                  Agree. That’s a dangerous assumption that goes counter to prevailing evidence.

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 25, 2020 at 6:37 pm

                  Quote from Valerian

                  When was the last time you heard about healthy 30-40yo’s dying of the flu, or healthy 30 yo’s being admitted for flu at any point.

                   
                   
                  Last flu season. Happens all of the time. We just don’t notice because it is spread out over a longer time and was not proceeded by months of speculation about how dangerous this virus is going to be. Now every tragic cases is broadcast about as evidence for how bad this particular virus is compared to the flu.
                   
                  Again. Most of us who pointed out weeks ago what two very bight professors of medicine just showed with an elegant analysis have never said it wasn’t going to be bad. Just not worth causing a major recession and probable depression.
                   
                  I hope most of you have the pocket change to subscribe to the WSJ and were able to read the article mentioned above. What it is basically saying is you can estimate the prevalence of the dieses in the population by doing random sampling. We have three good test groups where can get a much more accurate estimate of the real prevalence to put in the denominator of the mortality equation. 

                  • satyanar

                    Member
                    April 20, 2020 at 7:04 pm

                    Quote from ADHD

                    Quote from Valerian

                    When was the last time you heard about healthy 30-40yo’s dying of the flu, or healthy 30 yo’s being admitted for flu at any point.

                     

                    Last flu season. Happens all of the time. We just don’t notice because it is spread out over a longer time and was not proceeded by months of speculation about how dangerous this virus is going to be. Now every tragic cases is broadcast about as evidence for how bad this particular virus is compared to the flu.

                    Again. Most of us who pointed out weeks ago what two very bight professors of medicine just showed with an elegant analysis have never said it wasn’t going to be bad. Just not worth causing a major recession and probable depression.

                    I hope most of you have the pocket change to subscribe to the WSJ and were able to read the article mentioned above. What it is basically saying is you can estimate the prevalence of the dieses in the population by doing random sampling. We have three good test groups where can get a much more accurate estimate of the real prevalence to put in the denominator of the mortality equation. 

                     
                    I’ll make it easier for you Jedi. The rest of the SDP have already read this.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 20, 2020 at 7:12 pm

                      On Easter Sunday, Chris Cuomo (knowing he was sick and COVID positive), broke quarantine, hopped in his car, drove 30 minutes to a different town to check out an undeveloped property in East Hampton.
                       
                      A passing bicyclist recognized him and asked him what he was doing outside.  Cuomo laid into the bicyclist, calling him a jack-, loser, fat tire biker who got in his space and talked BS to me…I dont want to hear it.  
                       
                      Classy guy.  Quarantine for thee but not for me, apparently.

                • kayla.meyer_144

                  Member
                  March 25, 2020 at 6:43 pm

                  No one thinks it odd that someone concerned with saving lives is called a weakling?

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    March 25, 2020 at 6:53 pm

                    ADHD, that wasn’t very nice. Here is the article so everyone can read.

                    WSJ – Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

                    Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

                    By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
                    March 24, 2020 6:21 pm ET

                    If its true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But theres little evidence to confirm that premiseand projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

                    Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

                    The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of casesorders of magnitude largerthen the true fatality rate is much lower as well. Thats not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

                    Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

                    Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. Thats more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italys case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

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                    In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Icelands first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. Its plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

                    The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isnt a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

                    How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesnt catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers havent adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.

                    The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, thats a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

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                    This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We dont know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

                    If were right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

                    A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

                    Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 25, 2020 at 7:37 pm

                      Quote from Jimboboy

                      ADHD, that wasn’t very nice. Here is the article so everyone can read.

                       
                      My bad. I tried to copy and paste to a friend via email and it didn’t work so I thought it was restricted somehow. Thanks for sharing.

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 25, 2020 at 2:41 pm

          Quote from MRItech

          Isnt the numerator enough to be scary? When had Italy 7000+ Casualties due to flu in a matter of a few months except the spanish flu (a pandemic)?

           
          Yes. It is scary and a lot of people will die. Some will die unnecessarily because local health systems became overwhelmed for a relatively short period of time. This is tragic in its own right.
           
          The thing is, changes on the numerator will have very little to do with the mortality rate when this is finally able to be analyzed. It is the denominator that holds the answer for that.
           
          Now as JBB has said before, right now the best thing to do is watch the numerator closely. That’s why I have been able to make the predictions I did more than two weeks ago.

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 25, 2020 at 3:48 pm

            It’s already changed many lives, killed some, and crashed the stock market and economy.  There is nothing to argue about here, it’s already done a lot of damage and a lot of reactionary measures have completely changed our world.  To ask if this is a nothing burger is to have been under a rock for the past month.  The only real question to ask is “Was coronavirus much ado about nothing?”   My answer to that is –  If we simply contained this or we boosted supplies and personnel to cope with this, it could have been a nothing burger.  

            • katiemckee84_223

              Member
              March 25, 2020 at 3:54 pm

              Quote from striker79

              It’s already changed many lives, killed some, and crashed the stock market and economy.  There is nothing to argue about here, it’s already done a lot of damage and a lot of reactionary measures have completely changed our world.  To ask if this is a nothing burger is to have been under a rock for the past month.  The only real question to ask is “Was coronavirus much ado about nothing?”   My answer to that is –  If we simply contained this or we boosted supplies and personnel to cope with this, it could have been a nothing burger.  

               
              I’m glad to finally see you are responsibly talking about it now. Why now play with language? The whole point of calling it a nothing burger is that there is nothing there [i][b]concerning this [/b][/i]Covid-19[i][b] virus[/b][/i], compared to [b]what we do and report on common influenza[/b] for years.
               
              The phrase “nothing burger” was, and always was, much ado about nothing. Just like when Van Jones told the truth about all things Russia and coined the term for that instance, faux reporting and outrage, nothing there. It’s odd that you twist this here a bit for no good reason. Those of us who use the term for the effect that it has have been clear and consistent throughout all of these stories.
               
              The real problem of course, is that we are needlessly hurting the economy, and giving away our freedoms progressively as sheeple do.

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 25, 2020 at 4:07 pm

                A family member of mine, in their 30s, is intubated in the ICU from this virus. A member of my medical school class, in his 30s, is also in the ICU. I dont remember anything similar in any flu season in my lifetime, and this is just the beginning. Pretending this is nothing wont make this go away. Go out there and try to help people.

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 25, 2020 at 4:16 pm

                  I was afraid with the title of this thread that we would soon fall back into the “nothing burger” v. “something burger” debate. This is a straw man. IB is trolling by continuing to use the term which is unfortunate. The only thing I have said is almost exactly what the Stanford doctors have made an excellent case for. While it will be a very bad thing, perhaps 20,000 deaths, it does not justify unraveling the world’s economy. Classic killing the patient with the cure rather than the disease.
                   
                   

                  • satyanar

                    Member
                    April 22, 2020 at 6:46 am

                    Quote from ADHD

                    I was afraid with the title of this thread that we would soon fall back into the “nothing burger” v. “something burger” debate. This is a straw man. IB is trolling by continuing to use the term which is unfortunate. The only thing I have said is almost exactly what the Stanford doctors have made an excellent case for. While it will be a very bad thing, perhaps 20,000 deaths, it does not justify unraveling the world’s economy. Classic killing the patient with the cure rather than the disease.

                     
                    I like this one a lot. Why? Because ADHD is proven wrong. The 20K number is too low. Probably by 3X. Maybe more. Now of course 3X in the numerator does not crush the theory. It only makes it stronger. Remember ADHD posted this in March. Way before current prevelance data was released. 
                     
                    Why is this important? Because the SDP will try to use it to show what a fool ADHD was. Just like when they broadcast the knee jerk error Sweden mad with the 99X estimate. 
                     
                    An error in calculation does not throw out the whole theory. Admitting it and analyzing what effect it has strengthens it. 
                     
                     

                • katiemckee84_223

                  Member
                  March 25, 2020 at 4:21 pm

                  Quote from LuckyStrike

                  A family member of mine, in their 30s, is intubated in the ICU from this virus. A member of my medical school class, in his 30s, is also in the ICU. I dont remember anything similar in any flu season in my lifetime, and this is just the beginning. Pretending this is nothing wont make this go away. Go out there and try to help people.

                   
                  I do help people, every day. I’m sorry that your friends and family are currently having health issues. The policy is a public one, not a personal one. And that’s what we are commenting on. Not personal issues.

                  • francomejiamurillo_751

                    Member
                    March 25, 2020 at 5:11 pm

                    It’s real.  The people who argue against it are just in denial. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 25, 2020 at 5:20 pm

                      Does a nothing burger cause cities to run out of ventilators and ICU beds?

                    • arg2626

                      Member
                      March 25, 2020 at 5:27 pm

                      If we had taken more drastic measures earlier like some asian countries did, this would have been contained, and we are now going about our businesses. The current financial crisis was the cause of inaction, not the other way around.

                    • nelson33.jn

                      Member
                      March 25, 2020 at 5:37 pm

                      Its Goddamn serious. Its not a nothing burger if you wind up in the ICU, pink froth spilling out of your mouth while you gasp for air in ARDS. Who wants to play the dark lottery of having a severe or critical case?

                    • alyaa.rifaie_129

                      Member
                      March 25, 2020 at 5:44 pm

                      [b]Covidiot – [/b]The latest word added to the Urban Dictionary. Used to describe hoarders, people that don’t follow social distancing, self quarantine etc

                    • kayla.meyer_144

                      Member
                      March 25, 2020 at 5:47 pm

                      Heres an article about this Nothingburger killing people at Elmhurst hospital in Queens, NY.
                       
                      Theyre only people. Why are we getting worked up? 
                       
                      Well,I thought that was our job. Learning some posters dont share my opinion that peoples lives are valuable & mean something & have purpose.
                       
                      My mother is not expendable.
                       
                       [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html[/link]
                       
                       

                    • nuznuz

                      Member
                      March 25, 2020 at 6:05 pm

                      Are you people not doctors, not radiologists? ARDS chest CT/cxr all day and all night long in the cold half of the year from various viruses, mostly influenza. And more often in young people than covid. Even little kiddos.

                      Whens the last time you saw covid kill a small child like the flu does? I cant believe some of you are sensationalizing anecdotes of young people being affected by covid. The fact remains that 8 out of 10 mortalities are in 65+ population.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:20 am

                      Quote from InNyc

                      Its Goddamn serious. Its not a nothing burger if you wind up in the ICU, pink froth spilling out of your mouth while you gasp for air in ARDS. Who wants to play the dark lottery of having a severe or critical case?

                       
                      Like every other disease, too, which you can’t tease out but you can claim everyone who is in the ICU has, due to XYZ. Sampling bias, tampon bias. Again, [b]no one is saying the disease isn’t real[/b], or doesn’t affect others ever. It doesn’t affect most, and draconian measures just make everyone more frantic, ruin the economy, and forced doctors to intubate people they wouldn’t have either. The nothing burger, [b]as has been said 10 times already in this thread[/b], is the fear mongering and the measures taken, which are never done in flu seasons — which have “killed” more people in recent years. Read and understand, don’t mischaracterize. Use your brain and language skills, at least, if you can’t use logic.

                    • arg2626

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:38 am

                      1000 deaths is already few too many if its preventable, even if the mortality rate is slightly higher than flu- reason why we get flu shots every year. How do you avoid it you say? By not treating this like a nothing burger. Just look at every photo of asian countries, everyone’s wearing a mask. Leaders and citizens alike know that this is not trivial. Just a few weeks ago, I was discouraged from wearing mask because it causes hysteria. Hysteria is hoarding toilet paper and canned food. Encouraging everyone to wear a mask is just common sense (it doesn’t have to be N95, it could even be home made).

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:40 am

                      Quote from MRItech

                      1000 deaths is already few too many if its preventable

                      It’s not preventable unless we are all strictly quarantined. It can only be slowed down. Should we be doing that with the flu?

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:42 am

                      Still waiting for the data you claim is so obvious

                      Still waiting

                    • arg2626

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:53 am

                      Most of them are preventable. By accurate detection and containment of clusters. By not overwhelming the health system that there’s not enough ventilators to those who need them. Could have avoided shutting down the country. Look at Asia.
                       

                      Quote from ADHD

                      Quote from MRItech

                      1000 deaths is already few too many if its preventable

                      It’s not preventable unless we are all strictly quarantined. It can only be slowed down. Should we be doing that with the flu?

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:56 am

                      Im just asking for one published shred of proof

                      He is hiding like a sloth from the sun

                  • mariana.gonzalez_122

                    Member
                    March 25, 2020 at 5:22 pm

                    Are you all seeing these scans? Young sick people. We are just getting it and it is unlike the flu which has no impact on my practice. Whenever people start talking about sheeple and global warming as if there is a conspiracy it makes it really hard to take you seriously. I would much prefer to hear less about what ones analysis of public policy is, predictions about the future etc, and focus on real experiences. I can get all the other info from tv. Love to hear if it’s a non impactful event for you in your practice. And stop saying nothing burger. It’s like if u continually say but where’s the beef. Sound like a tool or some poser.

          • satyanar

            Member
            April 20, 2020 at 7:01 pm

            Quote from ADHD

            Quote from MRItech

            Isnt the numerator enough to be scary? When had Italy 7000+ Casualties due to flu in a matter of a few months except the spanish flu (a pandemic)?

            Yes. It is scary and a lot of people will die. Some will die unnecessarily because local health systems became overwhelmed for a relatively short period of time. This is tragic in its own right.

            The thing is, changes on the numerator will have very little to do with the mortality rate when this is finally able to be analyzed. It is the denominator that holds the answer for that.

            Now as JBB has said before, right now the best thing to do is watch the numerator closely. That’s why I have been able to make the predictions I did more than two weeks ago.

             
            This is for Jedi. I would suggest you go back and read every post in every thread about COVID before you come in and spout the same BS of the SDP.

          • satyanar

            Member
            April 22, 2020 at 6:38 am

            Quote from ADHD

            Quote from MRItech

            Isnt the numerator enough to be scary? When had Italy 7000+ Casualties due to flu in a matter of a few months except the spanish flu (a pandemic)?

            Yes. It is scary and a lot of people will die. Some will die unnecessarily because local health systems became overwhelmed for a relatively short period of time. This is tragic in its own right.

            The thing is, changes on the numerator will have very little to do with the mortality rate when this is finally able to be analyzed. It is the denominator that holds the answer for that.

            Now as JBB has said before, right now the best thing to do is watch the numerator closely. That’s why I have been able to make the predictions I did more than two weeks ago.

             
            back from the dead. 

  • katiemckee84_223

    Member
    March 25, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    Quote from beset rad

    Interesting editorial in the WSJ today from two Stanford professors suggesting it might be something akin to a nothing burger.  The basic point is that all guesstimates on mortality rates are way too high, by orders of magnitude, because we dont know the denominator.  Specifically, since we havent been testing everyone, we really dont know who has this virus.  We dont know how many are infected and either dont get sick, or recover at home and never get tested.  [i][b]Were testing only the ill and the very ill so we are artificially elevating the mortality rate by underestimating the extent of the disease. [/b][/i] Read the piece, its very interesting and convincing.    The would argue that we should not shut down our economy for a disease that is no more lethal than seasonal flu.

     
    I have been saying this for a week and ADHD as well, it is so obviously the case, I often wonder who is even a real doctor here or if they ever were on the wards/paid attention to how medicine is practiced and how hospitals are a nidus for infection and the dying. Not only is this also the case in Italy and Spain (there is no excess mortality), we’re actually having a good “flu” season compared to the past 5 years, where a couple were horrendous as far as the “stats” on the common flu. If you do any sort of diligence on Italy in Bergamo and Lombardy, for example, you’ll see far more people were sick and died in 2017. All you have to do is be honest, do a web search for ICU problems and admissions, and not be a hack who has TDS. It is incontrovertible.

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 25, 2020 at 5:36 pm

    I think there was a guy in the beginning who called this a “nothingburger”. The only people who use that label now are the hysterical guys on the other side who insist on creating an easier targets for themselves to argue against.

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 25, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    Want an example of why a world wide depression will kill more people than the virus? Watch what happens when the virus starts arriving in the world’s poorest countries as the WSJ is now reporting. Sure some small portion of the population will die from the disease. It will be at a higher rate than developed countries. But the crippled state of the economy will take it’s toll on everyone, the entire impoverished population. We are talking food shortages, lack of medicine, all of the things that were already bad and will be worse with a much slower velocity of money world wide.

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 25, 2020 at 7:03 pm

      I want to caution. The theory proposed by the article doesn’t quite reconcile with observations seen in Wuhan, Italy, and now NYC. The deaths seem too localized.

      • Unknown Member

        Deleted User
        March 25, 2020 at 7:18 pm

        As far as what ADHD says about the consequences of a worldwide depression, I agree. The toll in terms of hunger and suffering will be tremendous. Deaths within US wont be much (contrary to perception, deaths actually declined during the Great Depression). But it will be severe in less developed countries.

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 25, 2020 at 7:36 pm

          It is real, it is overwhelming, it is destroying young people. And sadly, those who deny will learn this.

          I thought this was a joke and an abstract problem off in the distance.

          It is now crushing my hospital system.

          Just wait until X-ray after X-ray after X-ray in the ER shows the same terrible findings in all sorts of people.

      • Unknown Member

        Deleted User
        March 25, 2020 at 7:39 pm

        Quote from Jimboboy

        I want to caution. The theory proposed by the article doesn’t quite reconcile with observations seen in Wuhan, Italy, and now NYC. The deaths seem too localized.

         
        Why do you say that? The localized deaths only means the overall infection rate locally is much higher than measured.

        • kayla.meyer_144

          Member
          March 25, 2020 at 8:08 pm

           
           
          [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coronavirus-tweet-economy-elderly/2020/03/25/25a3581e-6e11-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html]https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coronavirus-tweet-economy-elderly/2020/03/25/25a3581e-6e11-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html[/link]

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 26, 2020 at 3:01 am

            I am totally shocked at the number of posters on this thread who have lost sight of the fact that in our jobs, we have a dramatic selection bias. Anyone who is sick comes to our hospitals, and we see all those who get very sick. 
            Some days it seems that everyone I see has breast cancer. Seems at times like an epidemic. And I know it is not. Just selection bias.

            The authors of this article have presented a cold analysis of the data available. And people – here and elsewhere- respond with emotional appeals – Descriptions of people dying, etc. Save it. We know people die, and that is NOT the discussion. WE are supposed to be better than this, we are supposed to be able to read data.

            I have been waiting for people to come to the realization that these draconian measures have very serious effects on the economy that may throw us into another great depression. And this week, it seems to be starting.  I know of no one with the disease – in our area of around a million people, 2 have been diagnosed. On the other hand, many thousands are suffering serious economic damage. One club I belong to has basically passed the hat for their employees who have car payments, mortgages, etc and no income.
            Keep in mind that the peak of the epidemic –  if we flatten the curve – will not be here for months.  If we keep this up for months, the economy will be trashed. Without any doubt. And for what? The only deaths “prevented” will be those few who might (only “might”) have been helped by a ventilator and couldn’t get it due to the peak occurring all at once, as opposed to being drawn out.  Some seem to imply that by shutting down the economy, the severity of the disease will be lessened, and we will save lives in that way. Of course it won’t. Further – most mathematical modeling suggests that if the peak delayed, the total number affected will be about the same. 

            Since we are being anecdotal here – among those injured economically will be those in my immediate family. One has a 3 year old business that was doing very very well. He is closed. He has payments due on millions of  dollars of loans, and no income. He may go under, or I may have to make those (high) payments for him.  Another is without a job, and NO ONE is interviewing now. His emergency fund will be gone in a month. I may have to feed and house them. 

            None of this is because of the virus. It is because of the reaction to the virus fueled by media reports straining for the most dramatic adjectives to sell the idea that we are in desperate straits in order to get more clicks. 

            And no one in my family or that I am acquainted with even has the sniffles type of symptoms that most of the people get.  
             
            I am amazed that to this point there has been almost no discussion of the fact that when you institute measures like this, there is an unavoidable trade off. When you shut down the economy, some may be saved, but also a very large number will be seriously hurt in other ways. This is absolutely unavoidable. The decision to be made is how do you balance these two. And that is a discussion without a perfect answer. So we will argue it tiresomely without end. 

            Who is the one big winner in all of this – Vladamir Putin. He is happy to watch us self destruct with no effort or risk on his part. 

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 3:16 am

              Removed due to GDPR request

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 3:18 am

                Quote from 67ED5CC042435

                The economy will recover. Life will go back to normal later this year.

                Prove it. 
                here. now.
                Describe how it will recover, if these restrictions last 3 months, or 4 months. 

                One statement like that has no real weight.  

              • kathleen.hibler

                Member
                March 30, 2020 at 5:14 pm

                Would you rather pay your relatives loans or help choose which relative gets a vent and which dies?

                Its funny watching people in the very early stages of this disease.

                Like watching the opening 15 minutes of a horror movie where the gang all laughs at the obviously terrifying thing about to happen, and runs recklessly into said terrifying thing, realizing too late how they should have listened to the clear warning signs.

                Make no mistakeyou will wish these draconian measures were more severe in due time

                • ranweiss

                  Member
                  March 30, 2020 at 5:51 pm

                  “UCSF here is starting to do elective procedures this week, ICUs are holding up well. I saw a few anecdotal cases of a woman in NYC hospital saying they need supplies, but is there good data on ICUs actually overflowing into failure so far? How’s it like in your institution now, do ER docs call DNRs and pick who will live or die? I’m not saying they won’t overflow and fail, but seems like so far it hasn’t happened, outside of CNN / NYT lying about it for obvious reasons. ”
                   
                  All the ‘major academic’ level 1’s in our city are nearing capacity in ICU. They all have separate covid units that are filling up – and a shortage of supplied and healthcare workers starting to really become an issue. We aren’t in a NYC type situation yet, but not far from it at this point. They are converting a major convention center into a 3 thousand bed fields hospital , set to open in a few weeks.
                   
                  I’m glad SF was able to get this under control – but I find it REALLY HARD to believe UCSF ( I used to work there, they take Infectious disease very serious )  would be reopening NEXT WEEK FOR ELECTIVE procedures. That would be straight up stupid.

              • satyanar

                Member
                April 22, 2020 at 11:29 am

                Quote from 67ED5CC042435

                The economy will recover. Life will go back to normal later this year.

                \
                 
                Hahahahahaha

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  April 22, 2020 at 11:32 am

                  Removed due to GDPR request

                  • satyanar

                    Member
                    April 22, 2020 at 11:36 am

                    I took a look back at your posts NYK. Sorry I mischaracterized you as a late addition here to participate in the tearing down of the straw man built by others. You’ve been a card carrying member of the SDP from the beginning. Explains a lot. I shouldn’t have wasted time my time.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 22, 2020 at 12:15 pm

                      In my brief survey of your posts NYK I noticed a bunch insults and yet to be proven predictions. Lots of little short quips aimed at ridiculing someone. Is this just sampling error or is this your MO?
                       
                      Can you show me a post of yours that uses good data and analysis to make an argument that can be followed and believed? Or even a prediction that has come true?  I don’t want to waste any more time looking through the archive.
                       
                       

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                April 26, 2020 at 12:16 pm

                Nothing Burger from day 1. Absurd. Illogical. Non-scientific. Media. Control?. 

                • kathleen.hibler

                  Member
                  April 26, 2020 at 12:23 pm

                  About to get interesting.

                  State unemployment funds were not built to sustain 25% unemployment indefinitely. They have weeks to a month of reserves left

                  Mcconnell has already made it clear the federal government is not going to help blue states, who are disproportionately impacted.

                  When the unemployment checks stop coming, what happens next?

                  • satyanar

                    Member
                    April 26, 2020 at 12:29 pm

                    Multi-family real estate partnerships become a huge liability.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:21 pm

                      Debt jubilee isn’t happening. Babylonian times is not precedence. Maybe for Zimbabwe. There are bankruptcy laws to handle debt owed by non-sovereign entities like individuals, corporations and states. Also countries that peg their currency to the dollar. As for sovereign states/nations like the US an the EU, they can grow themselves out of debt. Failing that, there is inflation.

                      I do wonder, could US lose reserve currency status from all this? 2+ trillion dollars stimulus don’t come for free. US has to grow its economy to offset the fresh debt. The lockdown is doing the opposite. Rest of the world is in a similar boat so that’s a saving grace – US still looks better. But then again China is gonna look even better. Notwithstaning the conspiracy theories that say China planned all this, they may indeed come out the winner.

                      All the fear mongering here played perfectly into their hands Are we on the road toward lost hegemony?

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:26 pm

                      Quote from JamesRobertJunge

                      Debt jubilee isn’t happening. Babylonian times is not precedence. Maybe for Zimbabwe. There are bankruptcy laws to handle debt owed by non-sovereign entities like individuals, corporations and states. Also countries that peg their currency to the dollar. As for sovereign states/nations like the US an the EU, they can grow themselves out of debt. Failing that, there is inflation.

                      I do wonder, could US lose reserve currency status from all this? 2+ trillion dollars stimulus don’t come for free. US has to grow its economy to offset the fresh debt. The lockdown is doing the opposite. Rest of the world is in a similar boat so that’s a saving grace – US still looks better. But then again China is gonna look even better. Notwithstaning the conspiracy theories that say China planned all this, they may indeed come out the winner.

                      All the fear mongering here played perfectly into their hands Are we on the road toward lost hegemony?

                       
                      The bankruptcy code has already been amended as part of the coronavirus relief legislation. I could see significant loosening as part of a future stimulus/recovery bill that allows for a [i]de facto[/i] forgiveness of large amounts of consumer/personal/student/small business debt.
                       
                      It might not be called a “jubilee” but something like that could be in the cards if so many American consumers end up debt ridden that they can’t spend and consume enough to get the economy out of the doldrums. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:34 pm

                      What’s a polite way to say “we’re £u¢ked”

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:39 pm

                      Yes…. that is extreme action similar to the great depression.
                       
                      But if come July 2021 the US unemployment rate is >15%, many workers still aren’t getting anything close to a full pay-check, and waves of mortgage defaults, rent non-payment are coupled with huge consumer credit card debt just to put food on the table on clothes on kids’ backs then we will have to think about things that would have seemed unthinkable only a year earlier.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 2:04 pm

                      Quote from dergon

                      But if come July 2021 the US unemployment rate is >15%, many workers still aren’t getting anything close to a full pay-check, and waves of mortgage defaults, rent non-payment are coupled with huge consumer credit card debt just to put food on the table on clothes on kids’ backs then we will have to think about things that would have seemed unthinkable only a year earlier.

                       
                      What did I tell everyone?

                    • kayla.meyer_144

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 3:50 am

                      A lot of pushback against John Ioannidis’s conclusions about his study and conclusions that the fatality for COVID is little more than the flu. And questioning of his motives.
                       
                      [link=https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2020/04/25/is_john_ioannidis_succumbing_to_sloppy_science_on_covid-19_111369.html]https://www.realclearscie…n_covid-19_111369.html[/link]
                       

                      Ioannidis latest work, though, has sparked pushback from many of his colleagues, with some suggesting that the researcher may be succumbing to the very sloppiness he has spent his career fighting. Since mid-March, Ioannidis has been arguing that the fatality rate of Covid-19 may be much lower than initially feared and that, as a result, current public health restrictions could be overly strict. Last week, a Stanford-led study of Covid-19 infection rates in Santa Clara County, California, which lists Ioannidis as an author, seemed to offer some of the most forceful backing for that argument. The [link=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1]paper[/link] suggests that the fatality rate for Covid-19 may be 0.2 percent or less lower than many other estimates, and much closer to the seasonal flu.
                       
                      Pretty much no one with statistical acumen believes these studies.
                       
                      Ioannidis doing his schtick about standards of evidence is not helpful. Everyone knows were acting with little or partial information, [link=https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1239978792426274822?lang=en]wrote[/link] Yale epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves in a Twitter thread. We all want better data. But if you dont have it. 
                       
                      The Stanford study was not a true random sample, said Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, in an email to Undark. In addition, he said, their testing was flawed, so they might have many false positives. 
                       
                      Because of the potential for false positives, theres also a chance the 50 positive tests could have been mostly statistical noise, rather than a meaningful result. If that were the case, the true number of infections in the county would be lower, and in turn the infection fatality rate would be higher and perhaps more in line with what [link=https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf]other influential studies[/link], with estimates [link=https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256]closer to 0.5 percent[/link] and above, have suggested.
                       
                      [b]The Stanford data also do not seem to match up with observations in other, more hard-hit parts of the country. In New York City, for example, an estimated 15,400 people have died from Covid-19, according to [link=https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page]figures[/link] from the citys health department. While death rates may vary from place to place, if the fatality rate of Covid-19 is as low as 0.12 percent, as the Stanford study authors claim, this would suggest that more than 12.5 million people in New York City have already been infected with Covid-19, even though only 8.3 million people live there.[/b]
                       
                      A. Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease ecologist at UC-Santa Cruz and a vocal critic of the study, summed up his thoughts in an email: [b]They completely ignore the data from N.Y.[/b]
                       
                      [b]Along with Ioannidis piece in STAT, Bendavid and Bhattacharya had [link=https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464]published[/link] their own op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, before conducting the study, questioning whether the Covid-19 quarantines were overreactions. This has led some critics to question the authors motives. The fact that Ioannidis and another author had published two articles arguing that the threat of Covid-19 was overblown, and then published a study that was done in a way that was likely to produce a spuriously high estimate of seroprevalence (and thus a low [infection fatality rate]) was worrisome, wrote Kilpatrick.[/b]
                       
                      His current study fits most of the high-risk criteria for falsehood that he outlines, such as publishing in a really hot scientific field with few corroborating studies, using a small bias sample, [and] reporting provocative findings in a politically charged arena, Gerke said.
                       
                      If you just go through his own work, Gerke added, he seems to be breaking all his own rules.

                       
                       
                       

                    • briankn58gmail.com

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 4:34 am

                      the flu death rate of 0.1-0.2% is based on the denominator being confirmed plus suspected cases. It doesnt include undocumented cases, like me a few months back. So not sure if that 0.1% is the same as approximating coronaviruss death rate based on antibody presence in the population . The true flu lethality rate is going to be less than 0.1%. Probably a sig amount less.
                      Also, this is a novel virus , so without any Population immunity and with it easily spread, we will easily see this hit 50-60% of the pop if we conduct business as usual . Thats300-400k dead even with a hopeful low lethality rate of 0.1-2%. When was the last time flu killed that many in the us? The 1960s I think? Or maybe even as far back as the Spanish flu.

                      But even disregarding all the above, we dont even know possible long term effects , or other potential organ involvement , etc. if you are a Physician, you should already be aware of how to act when we are presented with a new virus and limited information.

                      what kind of person can be a medical doctor and call this a nothing burger in any serious fashion?

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 5:00 am

                      Quote from rozakk

                      what kind of person can be a medical doctor and call this a nothing burger in any serious fashion?

                      I don’t know the real identities or personal lives of the Aunt Minnie “nothing burger” posters… 
                       
                      but I [b]do[/b] know the physicians with whom I interact in my social media feed and in my day-to-day real life interactions.
                       
                      A  “correlation is not causation” disclaimer is required: 
                       
                       Every single doctor that I personally know who is either trivializing the severity of the pandemic or strongly prioritizing economic concerns over public health is also a conservative Republican … and most are vocal Trump supporters.

                    • jeevonbenning_648

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 5:31 am

                      So tell us, what advantage does a so-called Trump supporter have to intentionally minimize the severity of this pandemic?

                      If anything, the longer this charade goes on, Trump had a higher chance of being re-elected. The US was due for a recession, and with this virus conveniently in the picture, Trump and Republicans have a perfect scapegoat to blame for a stock market crash and economic recession. Also, in times of “war” the public is likely to keep their leader.

                      Trump, in my opinion, based on what he is saying believes Fauci a bit too much and is overemphasizing and exaggerating the lethality of this virus. Data is starting to bear this out and will only grow in the coming weeks.

                      Your water-cooler observation sounds more like bro science to me. If one wanted Trump NOT to be re-elected, they should claim that the virus was a nothingburger and Trump and Republicans is the reason for the bad economy. They cannot, because the US has seen real job growth under Trump for the first time in decades.

                    • btomba_77

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 5:52 am

                      I would disagree with your premise of “the longer this charade goes on, Trump had a higher chance of being re-elected” 
                       
                      Presidents get blamed for bad economies.
                       
                      Yes, he will try to spin  and pin the blame on governors, China, Democrats, Pelosi, Schumer ….  But like it or not,  fair or not, Presidents get the praise for a good economy and get the blame for a bad economy.
                       
                      I have a hard time believing (as do most people) that Trump’s odds of re-election are better with a 15% unemployment rate and a -12% GDP than pre-Covid with unemployment below 4% and growth >2%.
                       
                      The main reason an incumbent President fails to win re-election is a bad economy.  
                       
                      _________
                       
                      While I’m not sure “advantage” is a right word to use, I would guess that the opinion is formed by a combination of media diet, social circle opinion, the view that Covid is a blue state issue only, a pre-existing intrinsic priority of economics as a prime motivating issue.  … and these friends of mine intrinsically sense that without a fairly prompt economic re-open Trump’s re-election chances are low.
                       
                      And there go their tax cuts, deregulation, conservative judges … and here comes “socialism”
                       
                       

                       
                       
                       
                       
                       

                    • jeevonbenning_648

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 6:15 am

                      You describe the reasons why a Trump supporter would want a republican to be re-elected. Well duh.

                      What you said about social media diet in media diet applies exactly the same to both sides.

                      Tax cuts and deregulation are fully libertarian values.

                      I still don’t see how Trump supporting and political party affiliation would in any way motivate an individual to intentionally minimize the impact of this virus. I’m just not buying it. As I stated before the longer this charade goes on the easier it will be for Trump to be re-elected. a bad economy is different than and intentionally halted economy.

                      I think it’s human nature. Some people don’t like being told what to do more than others, some people value freedom and liberty more than others. I think we can separate this from political party affiliation.

                      What I find interesting is almost polar opposite viewpoints – one on hand, supporting personal responsibility for health and strengthening your immune system, while on the other hand, totally give up on that idea and you should stay at home, wearing masks, sterilizing the heck out of yourself and your children, and being scared to come within 6 feet of a human being.

                      I’m not politically minded and have never voted, but out of the above I definitely know which side I’m banking on.

                    • adrianoal

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 8:07 am

                      Quote from dergon

                      I would disagree with your premise of “the longer this charade goes on, Trump had a higher chance of being re-elected” 

                      Presidents get blamed for bad economies.

                      Yes, he will try to spin  and pin the blame on governors, China, Democrats, Pelosi, Schumer ….  But like it or not,  fair or not, Presidents get the praise for a good economy and get the blame for a bad economy.

                      I have a hard time believing (as do most people) that Trump’s odds of re-election are better with a 15% unemployment rate and a -12% GDP than pre-Covid with unemployment below 4% and growth >2%.

                      The main reason an incumbent President fails to win re-election is a bad economy.  

                      _________

                      While I’m not sure “advantage” is a right word to use, I would guess that the opinion is formed by a combination of media diet, social circle opinion, the view that Covid is a blue state issue only, a pre-existing intrinsic priority of economics as a prime motivating issue.  … and these friends of mine intrinsically sense that without a fairly prompt economic re-open Trump’s re-election chances are low.

                      And there go their tax cuts, deregulation, conservative judges … and here comes “socialism”

                       
                      Yeah, this is probably (mostly) true on both ends of the political spectrum.  Not helping the world to have a rational discussion.
                      edit: I should say “the country”, not “the world”.  Trump’s not popular a lot of places outside the US, but Europeans aren’t wrecking their economies to get rid of Trump.
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 27, 2020 at 8:20 am

                      JRJ, the .1% is the IFR ( CFR) of flu, not the percent of population that die. If that were the case there would be over 300k flu deaths a year in US.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 27, 2020 at 8:31 am

                      Understood

                    • adrianoal

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 7:38 am

                      Quote from rozakk

                      the flu death rate of 0.1-0.2% is based on the denominator being confirmed plus suspected cases. It doesnt include undocumented cases, like me a few months back. So not sure if that 0.1% is the same as approximating coronaviruss death rate based on antibody presence in the population . The true flu lethality rate is going to be less than 0.1%. Probably a sig amount less.
                      Also, this is a novel virus , so without any Population immunity and with it easily spread, we will easily see this hit 50-60% of the pop if we conduct business as usual . Thats300-400k dead even with a hopeful low lethality rate of 0.1-2%. When was the last time flu killed that many in the us? The 1960s I think? Or maybe even as far back as the Spanish flu.

                      But even disregarding all the above, we dont even know possible long term effects , or other potential organ involvement , etc. if you are a Physician, you should already be aware of how to act when we are presented with a new virus and limited information.

                       
                      Supposedly they try to model this in estimating the flu infection fatality rate (so it’s a “best estimate” not a strict count I’m told), but honestly I haven’t verified this.
                       
                      Even with that I do agree with the rest of this:
                      1.  Flu doesn’t infect 60-70% of the population.
                      2.  Honestly we still don’t have a great handle on the IFR for covid-19.  I’ve said I think it will be in the 0.1%-0.5% range, and I do think that, but outside of Iceland the data just aren’t great.  And in Iceland the IFR is dominated by a small number of elderly people getting the disease, but with a high fatality rate.  So the IFR is very dependent on just how many elderly get the disease.  Also, it depends how you count deaths.  There is a continued push to revise the # up, to include estimates of deaths due to covid-19 that were missed.  That could change things.  In any case, clearly left unchecked this would kill a lot more people than the flu.
                       
                       
                       

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 8:01 am

                      Did anyone say we should conduct “business as usual”?
                       
                      There is a very good chance we will reach 60-70% penetrance no matter what we do though. It’s not going to be possible to stay in lock down through the summer. 300-400K dead would be horrible. That is a number while I think high should be considered as part of the “cost” analysis however.
                       
                      Just don’t use it to build or tear down the straw man. If the predicted IFR of 0.1-2% is correct and the virus kills that many then those who predicted that IFR are correct. Its’ as simple as that.
                       
                      The whole “but it’s worse than the flu!” argument does nothing to contradict that. I have said over and over this is not the flu and is worse in many ways.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 27, 2020 at 5:02 am

                      I think this criticism is a good thing. A healthy part of scientific discourse. Some of the comments were pretty harsh though. wow. Like something out of AM forum.

                      This is my question. Why is there no questioning or criticism of NY and Cuomo? The prelim result of the antibody test there was announced 4 days ago at his briefing. Nothing published yet. We also haven’t seen the media or the scientific community asking for validity, let alone criticism.

                      What am I missing here?

                    • kayla.meyer_144

                      Member
                      April 27, 2020 at 5:11 am

                      Everything. Like years of everything. 
                       
                      A bit of informational disconnect there. Cuomo for one has not advocated Lysol or bleach injections or ingestion to treat COVID. Among many, many other crazy things Trump has said. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 27, 2020 at 5:29 am

                      I’m not defending Trump. He needs a filter. Funny as it may, I have personally wondered the same thing once or twice. The train of thought goes like:

                      “why isn’t there a disinfectant for the inside, oh right, that’s what antibiotics are, and the med doesn’t destroy the body in the process, well it does a little bit, but the bacteria more, it’s a relative toxicity thing… where are my keys…”

                      As for dergons comment, most of my colleagues and contacts don’t take political side in the covid debate. There is debate but politics don’t come in to play.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:37 pm

                      Quote from JamesRobertJunge

                      Debt jubilee isn’t happening. Babylonian times is not precedence. Maybe for Zimbabwe. There are bankruptcy laws to handle debt owed by non-sovereign entities like individuals, corporations and states. Also countries that peg their currency to the dollar. As for sovereign states/nations like the US an the EU, they can grow themselves out of debt. Failing that, there is inflation.

                      I do wonder, could US lose reserve currency status from all this? 2+ trillion dollars stimulus don’t come for free. US has to grow its economy to offset the fresh debt. The lockdown is doing the opposite. Rest of the world is in a similar boat so that’s a saving grace – US still looks better. But then again China is gonna look even better. Notwithstaning the conspiracy theories that say China planned all this, they may indeed come out the winner.

                      All the fear mongering here played perfectly into their hands Are we on the road toward lost hegemony?

                       
                      Nah.  It’s highly unlikely that there will be loss of reserve currency.  Remember that there are multiple reserve currencies (dollar, euro, Chinese yuan), and the US dollar simply the more dominant one.  Is this permanent?  Who knows.
                       
                      The thing is, the US economy infrastructure is more or less intact.  It hasn’t been decimated by a war or natural disaster.  It’s been voluntarily put into a coma.  Is it damaged?  Yes.  Is it capable of restarting?  Yes.  Is it nice to have reserve currencies concentrated in countries that are relatively responsible to political pressures and criticism and have a relatively high degree of transparency rather than currencies run by countries governed by repressive regimes who expel journalists, conceal serious viruses and have active gulags?  Yes.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:43 pm

                      Agree. I’m just just waxing hypothetical. China would not want the responsibility that comes with reserve status anyway.

                      Still, we’re £u¢ked.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:48 pm

                      Quote from JamesRobertJunge

                      Agree. I’m just just waxing hypothetical. China would not want the responsibility that comes with reserve status anyway.

                      Still, we’re £u¢ked.

                       
                      No.  We’ve come back from much worse than this.
                       
                      The economy was performing very well prior to this, and lower income workers were seeing higher wages and benefits before the shutdown began. 
                       
                      Would advise first making legitimate attempts to restart it before trying to reorganize it according to political preferences.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:59 pm

                      I just don’t see how. I went to a local Trader Joes yesterday. Even though they are open, they limit how many people can go in at a time. 6ft apart. There is no way they can generate sustainable income. It will be the same when the nonessential businesses open. The economy was not designed for this new lower capacity. Most businesses run on thin margins. Say the profit was 10% of revenue before? What happens when revenue falls 15%? You’re losing money.

                      All thanks to overreaction to something that didn’t have to be. The stimulus can’t work when the economy isn’t allowed to function. I think we’re just waiting for the next shoe to fall. The proverbial Lehman moment.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 2:02 pm

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      Would advise first making legitimate attempts to restart it before trying to reorganize it according to political preferences.

                       
                      Now does the insistence on lock downs make more sense?

                    • srinella

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:46 pm

                      Love how this devolved into classic extremes …its nothing or its the end of times …

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 2:06 pm

                      Removed due to GDPR request

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 2:09 pm

                      Quote from 67ED5CC042435

                      I really hope this is the peak. It will be nice to start to go back to normal. If cases continue to slow with easing of restrictions, I will be eternally grateful.

                       
                      This is something you have to recognize or you will be very disappointed. Cases will rise with easing of restrictions. The question is what does that mean for our health care system’s ability to care for them and how will that affect the total area under the curve.
                       
                      Now if your opinion is that if cases rise we must go back into lock down, you will be both disappointed and wrong.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 2:12 pm

                      Quote from 67ED5CC042435

                      For the record for the posters who are seemingly living in this thread: I still think it was worth implementing stay at home orders while this virus was an unknown besides what came from China and the horror stories that came from Italy. Yes, ours and almost every other global economy has tanked. I believe our economy is resilient and the few places that have opened up, people are starting to return. I have no reason to not stand by my comment in the beginning of this thread that the economy will bounce back, hopefully during Autumn. Mnuchin said something similar this morning: [link=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mnuchin-optimistic-about-economic-recovery-in-summer-says-new-ppp-money-will-be-distributed-fairly]https://www.foxnews.com/p…-be-distributed-fairly[/link] I am grateful my hospital system was not overwhelmed over the past month but we definitely became a COVID majority hospital for the past month with ICUs full and multiple inpatient floors with COVID patients.

                      But I will close with this: several posters have made this and other COVID threads completely unbearable because they have a differing interpretation of the data available than the majority in medicine. It feels like I am on a random conservative forum since the arguments are 1:1 from the non-medical people on those forums. I post here to engage with fellow physicians about the issues facing radiology from a physicians perspective, not to approach everything as a political food fight. I get that elsewhere.

                       
                      Thanks for stating why it is unbearable for you here. Your recent post was just innuendo so it was hard to tell where you stood. Most of the majority have been proven wrong. It is hard to come to grips with. I would be very surprised if it isn’t worse for you in real life if you are talking to knowledgeable physicians. 
                       
                      Plus, you could just not click on these threads or block people you don’t want to listen. I agree many parts are unbearable. Blocking has turned out to be a nice tool.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 3:07 pm

                      NYK,

                      That is an odd statement, that you find it unbearable when people have a different interpretation of data. What you are describing sounds like cognitive dissonance. Its when reality intrudes upon ones mental image of the world, and it shakes one up, and ones brain struggles to integrate the new information into ones pre-existing worldview.

                      Go towards that sense of discomfort. Interrogate it. Remember that no ones interpretation of reality is truly accurate. This is uncomfortable, but it could also be the universe offering a chance for a bit of enlightenment. Most refuse it.

                      Looking back, its interesting to note how the people who said we should use data to make decisions are the same ones who have gotten most things wrong thus far.

                      Does this argue against the scientific approach? No. It argues for it. The scientific method requires credible data and avoiding pre-existing bias in the interpretation of that data.

                      The initial data was from China. Not credible. Garbage in, garbage out.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 3:23 pm

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      The initial data was from China. Not credible. Garbage in, garbage out.

                       
                      So true and yet it was this data that first had me thinking there was something wrong with the original IFR calculations. There were just too many people in Wuhan for anything being reported to make sense. For some reason that meant to me a much larger denominator. Funny how noticing anomalies can put you on the right track even if the data is garbage. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 5:00 pm

                      Quote from Thread killer

                      Quote from radgrinder

                      The initial data was from China. Not credible. Garbage in, garbage out.

                      So true and yet it was this data that first had me thinking there was something wrong with the original IFR calculations. There were just too many people in Wuhan for anything being reported to make sense. For some reason that meant to me a much larger denominator. Funny how noticing anomalies can put you on the right track even if the data is garbage. 

                      The clue for me was the variability of mortality figures. It was all over the place, each country reporting something different. Pretty obvious that meant the disease has variable presentation. Also means the mortality figures are all inaccurate.

                      The countries that tested the most were likely closest to the actual figures. And these countries consistently had the lowest deaths. The lowest of which was South Korea with 0.7% mortality. And even they were unlikely have caught all cases.

                      Finally the covid cases were popping up everywhere seemingly randomly. That meant it was being spread by people who were either not that sick or asymptomatic. They carry it far and wide.

                      All of those seem pretty obvious. So it made no sense when the “experts” were posting ridiculous numbers, like 3-4% mortality from WHO.

                      I’m not sure why these align with conservative side of politics. I personally have no allegiance. If anything I lean liberal. There is something weird going on with the media and the democrats though. What they push don’t align with observations.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 5:21 pm

                      Quote from JamesRobertJunge

                      I’m not sure why these align with conservative side of politics. I personally have no allegiance. If anything I lean liberal. There is something weird going on with the media and the democrats though. What they push don’t align with observations.

                       
                      Its quite perplexing to me as well. Maybe because Trump went all in at first saying this was no big deal and under control? You have to admit DJT can rally the democrats to move in the opposite direction awfully quickly and passionately. 
                       
                       

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      April 26, 2020 at 7:37 pm

                      Quote from Thread killer

                      Quote from JamesRobertJunge

                      I’m not sure why these align with conservative side of politics. I personally have no allegiance. If anything I lean liberal. There is something weird going on with the media and the democrats though. What they push don’t align with observations.

                      Its quite perplexing to me as well. Maybe because Trump went all in at first saying this was no big deal and under control? You have to admit DJT can rally the democrats to move in the opposite direction awfully quickly and passionately. 

                       
                      My personal opinion is that it’s groupthink.  As previous posts have noted, you go to certain news sources to get the slant on the news you want.  Each company fills itself with like-minded people, so there’s fewer and fewer people in each institution to provide a different viewpoint or moderate things from going off the rails.  So a bias keeps feeding itself in a vicious cycle, and pretty soon everyone involved looks kinda loony from the outside because no one on the inside of their circle is capable of saying hey, we’re pretty far afield here, let’s dial it back.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 26, 2020 at 1:59 pm

                      Quote from JamesRobertJunge

                      Debt jubilee isn’t happening. Babylonian times is not precedence. 

                       
                      I think you better look up more modern variations but I don’t disagree with you JBB on the likelihood of it happening or not. I’m just predicting we will all be quite familiar with the term in the next few months. And yes, you know who will be the ones telling us this is what we need to do to take care of everyone.[b] [/b][i][/i][u][/u][strike][/strike]

                  • kayla.meyer_144

                    Member
                    April 26, 2020 at 1:06 pm

                    Angry Birds,
                     
                    What exactly makes you think Red states are immune and fiscally whole? If you did not realize, red states like McConnell’s are largely funded by blue states’ taxes. Meaning, New York pays out more $ in taxes to the Feds while Kentucky receives more $ from the Feds than so it can pay its bills. Kentucky is on Federal welfare. Blues states are where most of the action that earns money is, not red states.

            • adrianoal

              Member
              March 26, 2020 at 8:13 am

              Good points.  However, restaurants/hotels/airlines/etc were starting to get hammered before mandatory shutdowns because enough people were afraid that they didn’t want to travel/etc.  You don’t need a complete lockdown to kill a hotel.  They will stop being profitable well before that.
               
              So, governors saying “you are free to move about the country” isn’t going to fix things.  We have to get to a place where people feel safe to do those things.  
               
              Japan seems to be the best model for that.  Not clear on how they have done that.  But that ship has sailed in our country and, for the most part, Europe. 
               
              We are going to have to have enough good news, and planning, that people feel safe.  
               

              Quote from Dr.Sardonicus

              I am totally shocked at the number of posters on this thread who have lost sight of the fact that in our jobs, we have a dramatic selection bias. Anyone who is sick comes to our hospitals, and we see all those who get very sick. 
              Some days it seems that everyone I see has breast cancer. Seems at times like an epidemic. And I know it is not. Just selection bias.

              The authors of this article have presented a cold analysis of the data available. And people – here and elsewhere- respond with emotional appeals – Descriptions of people dying, etc. Save it. We know people die, and that is NOT the discussion. WE are supposed to be better than this, we are supposed to be able to read data.

              I have been waiting for people to come to the realization that these draconian measures have very serious effects on the economy that may throw us into another great depression. And this week, it seems to be starting.  I know of no one with the disease – in our area of around a million people, 2 have been diagnosed. On the other hand, many thousands are suffering serious economic damage. One club I belong to has basically passed the hat for their employees who have car payments, mortgages, etc and no income.
              Keep in mind that the peak of the epidemic –  if we flatten the curve – will not be here for months.  If we keep this up for months, the economy will be trashed. Without any doubt. And for what? The only deaths “prevented” will be those few who might (only “might”) have been helped by a ventilator and couldn’t get it due to the peak occurring all at once, as opposed to being drawn out.  Some seem to imply that by shutting down the economy, the severity of the disease will be lessened, and we will save lives in that way. Of course it won’t. Further – most mathematical modeling suggests that if the peak delayed, the total number affected will be about the same. 

              Since we are being anecdotal here – among those injured economically will be those in my immediate family. One has a 3 year old business that was doing very very well. He is closed. He has payments due on millions of  dollars of loans, and no income. He may go under, or I may have to make those (high) payments for him.  Another is without a job, and NO ONE is interviewing now. His emergency fund will be gone in a month. I may have to feed and house them. 

              None of this is because of the virus. It is because of the reaction to the virus fueled by media reports straining for the most dramatic adjectives to sell the idea that we are in desperate straits in order to get more clicks. 

              And no one in my family or that I am acquainted with even has the sniffles type of symptoms that most of the people get.  

              I am amazed that to this point there has been almost no discussion of the fact that when you institute measures like this, there is an unavoidable trade off. When you shut down the economy, some may be saved, but also a very large number will be seriously hurt in other ways. This is absolutely unavoidable. The decision to be made is how do you balance these two. And that is a discussion without a perfect answer. So we will argue it tiresomely without end. 

              Who is the one big winner in all of this – Vladamir Putin. He is happy to watch us self destruct with no effort or risk on his part. 

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 8:15 am

                Quote from BHE

                Good points.  However, restaurants/hotels/airlines/etc were starting to get hammered before mandatory shutdowns because enough people were afraid that they didn’t want to travel/etc.  You don’t need a complete lockdown to kill a hotel.  They will stop being profitable well before that.

                So, governors saying “you are free to move about the country” isn’t going to fix things.  We have to get to a place where people feel safe to do those things.  

                Japan seems to be the best model for that.  Not clear on how they have done that.  But that ship has sailed in our country and, for the most part, Europe. 

                We are going to have to have enough good news, and planning, that people feel safe.  

                 
                Thank you for saving me the time by posting this.

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 26, 2020 at 8:20 am

                  So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible. What should we do next. It has spread everywhere.
                   
                  Does it make sense to keep everyone in full lockdown and try to stop its spread completely when we know the social and economic toll that would require? 
                   
                   

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    March 26, 2020 at 8:22 am

                    Where are you getting your statistics

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:24 am

                      That question has been answered over and over. You are one of the few left that can’t see past the initial calculations.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:28 am

                      Nice dodge

                      Now where are you get your stats from

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:34 am

                      Quote from kpack123

                      Nice dodge

                      Now where are you get your stats from

                       
                      Early on mostly the Johns Hopkins dashboard but that is now being supplemented by reporting from places like Bergamo Italy, NYC, Washington State, California etc. I made this conclusion at the beginning of March. 
                       
                      Now two Stanford professors in the school of medicine have written about how they have used data from the U.S. citizens brought back from Wuhan, Vo province in Italy and the NBA to give a very smart explanation for why this is the case.
                       
                      Many here keep saying we don’t know anything so we can’t jump to conclusions. The truth is with proper thought we have always had the data. For some it will take a few more weeks to understand even though it has been explained to them multiple times.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:38 am

                      Lets see the links?

                      Im just asking a simple question

                      I have seen absolutely nothing yet to support what you said

                      So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible.

                      Im not disputing this. Im just asking where the proof is

                      Everything Ive seen and read so far suggest this virus is 10 times more lethal than an average flu

                      If you have info otherwise please share

                      I dont blind myself to facts

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:44 am

                      Quote from kpack123

                      Lets see the links?

                      Im just asking a simple question

                      I have seen absolutely nothing yet to support what you said

                      So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible.

                      Im not disputing this. Im just asking where the proof is

                      Everything Ive seen and read so far suggest this virus is 10 times more lethal than an average flu

                      If you have info otherwise please share

                      I dont blind myself to facts

                       
                      Honestly this is laughable. I guess you are just choosing where and what data you want to see. In this very thread there are links to the WSJ article and a copy paste that does the calculations for you. You don’t even have to think.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 22, 2020 at 6:55 am

                      Quote from kpack123

                      Lets see the links?

                      Im just asking a simple question

                      I have seen absolutely nothing yet to support what you said

                      So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible.

                      Im not disputing this. Im just asking where the proof is

                      Everything Ive seen and read so far suggest this virus is 10 times more lethal than an average flu

                      If you have info otherwise please share

                      I dont blind myself to facts

                       
                      Too bad Kpack isnt around. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:38 am

                      Show of hands. How many of you took my advice and read bout the Monty Hall problem? If you did how long did it take for you to come to grips with the explanation? Remember vos Savant was ridiculed by PhD professors about how wrong she was until she finally proved them wrong.
                       
                      We all work with our own personally biases that cloud our thinking. It is our job as physician and scientists to do our best to think past them. it is very hard but a worthy goal.
                       
                       

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 22, 2020 at 6:54 am

                      Quote from ADHD

                      Quote from kpack123

                      Nice dodge

                      Now where are you get your stats from

                      Early on mostly the Johns Hopkins dashboard but that is now being supplemented by reporting from places like Bergamo Italy, NYC, Washington State, California etc. I made this conclusion at the beginning of March. 

                      Now two Stanford professors in the school of medicine have written about how they have used data from the U.S. citizens brought back from Wuhan, Vo province in Italy and the NBA to give a very smart explanation for why this is the case.

                      Many here keep saying we don’t know anything so we can’t jump to conclusions. The truth is with proper thought we have always had the data. For some it will take a few more weeks to understand even though it has been explained to them multiple times.

                       
                       

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    March 26, 2020 at 8:28 am

                    Quote from ADHD

                    So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible. What should we do next. It has spread everywhere.

                    Does it make sense to keep everyone in full lockdown and try to stop its spread completely when we know the social and economic toll that would require? 

                     
                    They will never give an answer to this. It’s sorta like, “When do you finally stop complaining about slavery or the race card, then, please tell me.” There’s never an answer, because they like to just hang things over other’s heads so they can appeal to victimhood, fear, unprovable situations, etc. to keep the fake power going.
                     
                    Another way of asking this would be, “What would I need to show you to change your mind?” Again, there will be no answer, because the evidence or data isn’t part of their calculus. And with science it is the quintessential factor: something that can’t be disproved is an irrelevant point. That’s why people are called racist too, all the time: you can’t show someone who is unreasonable evidence — by definition these small minded people come to conclusions first, then look for data.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:33 am

                      For example, there are less total deaths right now, looking month to month, in the UK than in 2019. Even from respiratory diseases!
                       
                      [link=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf] Here is a pdf of this week and the comparison flu seasons or all cause mortality since 2015[/link]! It’s exactly the same, OR MUCH BETTER, than the last few years. Unbelievable that you can look at this and see … nothing burger (the reaction, numbnutz!) written all over it.
                       

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 28, 2020 at 7:24 am

              I get it. Some of these people would have died later this month or year even without coronavirus. So it messes with the death figure.

              But that’s not acceptible (according to the 3 clowns). And you have to focus all your attention on the young people dying once in a while (again according to the guys tripping over themselves in the funny car).

  • arg2626

    Member
    March 26, 2020 at 3:31 am

    Quote from Dr.Sardonicus

    Since we are being anecdotal here – among those injured economically will be those in my immediate family. One has a 3 year old business that was doing very very well. He is closed. He has payments due on millions of  dollars of loans, and no income. He may go under, or I may have to make those (high) payments for him.  Another is without a job, and NO ONE is interviewing now. His emergency fund will be gone in a month. I may have to feed and house them. 

     
    Your family member would continue to do very well today had we taken measures earlier. Take a look at Japan and casualty counts. They got hit earlier than us, a typical Japanese city is much more crowded, and has a much older population. That is what I consider control. Yet we are heading towards Italy scenario. Our government has failed to act earlier on, and brought on this economy disaster. We had 2 months. We did nothing.

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 3:48 am

      If we had rapid testing available that worked one month ago we wouldnt be in this position

      Thats how countries dealt with this successfully without shutting down

      They tested and quarantined affected people and controlled it

      We however were convinced it was a nothingburger…. we were smarter and turned downed the rapid tests offered to us by WHO

      …… now we are screwed

      Failure of leadership

      • Unknown Member

        Deleted User
        March 26, 2020 at 3:51 am

        But of course if you bring up the point of us being totally unprepared….. then you are just anti-trump

        Stupid fng people

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 26, 2020 at 3:56 am

          Removed due to GDPR request

        • btomba_77

          Member
          March 26, 2020 at 3:58 am

           
           
          Sard- Paul Romer, Nobel winning economist explains a path forward.
           
           
          Arguing for the middle-path.
           
          We need to get to the point of ramped up testing and PPE … but after that …
           
          [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html[/link]
           
           

          To protect our way of life, we need to shift within a couple of months to a targeted approach that limits the spread of the virus but still lets most people go back to work and resume their daily activities.
           

          This approach uses two complementary strategies. The first relies on tests to target social distancing more precisely. The second relies on protective equipment that prevents the transmission of the virus. Adopting these strategies will require a massive increase in our capacity for coronavirus testing and a surge in the production of personal protective equipment.
           
           

          Resources, not scientific breakthroughs, are needed to expand our capacity for virus tests. If we commit to this type of expansion, technological innovations will continue to lower the cost and increase the speed of the existing tests. 
           
          We could start by screening the general public on a weekly basis. It might make sense to test health care and emergency response workers daily. We do not have the capacity to do this now, but all it would take to make this happen is for the federal government to make coronavirus testing an urgent goal and to fund it accordingly.
           
          [link=https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic]Tests to detect antibodies[/link] to the novel coronavirus are also becoming available. If recovery confers [link=https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus]immunity[/link], as seems to be the case for SARS and MERS, these tests will identify individuals who would neither be harmed by exposure to the virus nor expose anyone else to the risk of infection. They would not need additional testing.

          Both people with immunity and those who do not have the virus could go back to work and resume their daily activities while minimizing the risk to others.
           
           
          We must also give protective equipment to anyone who does not have antibodies, because others will pose a risk to them. Few people are at [link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html]greater risk[/link] than the doctors, nurses and first responders who care for infected patients. In the Lombardy region of Italy, [link=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30644-9/fulltext]20 percent[/link] of health care professionals have been infected.
           
          Widespread testing will help identify patients who are infected, and officials can encourage them to isolate themselves, but some will not obey. Others will be so sick that they need immediate care. Every health worker should have easy access to masks, gloves, gowns and face shields.
           
          In the long run, we are likely to have better options a vaccine perhaps, or effective drug treatments. And at some point, herd immunity, when so many people have immunity that others are unlikely to encounter and fall victim to the virus, will make this coronavirus a far more manageable threat.
           
          But we cannot afford to wait and hope. John Maynard Keynes famously quipped that in the long run, we are all dead. If we keep up our current strategy of suppression based on indiscriminate social distance for 12 to 18 months, most of us will still be alive. It is our economy that will be dead.

           

           

          • kayla.meyer_144

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 4:11 am

            “Leave no man behind!”
             
            Unless it affects my wallet, then, leave them.

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 4:25 am

              The shoulda-coulda-tested-more guys with political agendas up their (you know who you are), point of fact, the US has deployed testing faster than most other countries. The high confirmed cases vs relative smaller death count so far would indicate so.

              And you’re forgetting. The asian counties had practice with SARS and MERS. US didn’t.

              Take your 20/20 hindsight blame goggles off.

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 4:26 am

                Removed due to GDPR request

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 4:35 am

              Quote from Frumious

              “Leave no man behind!”

              Unless it affects my wallet, then, leave them.

              Judging based on your posts so far, I think you’d be singing the same tune, except louder, if your wallet is affected. Look around instead of focusing on yourself. The people who can least afford are getting furloughed or let go.

              • kayla.meyer_144

                Member
                March 26, 2020 at 6:01 am

                Quote from Jimboboy

                Quote from Frumious

                “Leave no man behind!”

                Unless it affects my wallet, then, leave them.

                Judging based on your posts so far, I think you’d be singing the same tune, except louder, if your wallet is affected. Look around instead of focusing on yourself. The people who can least afford are getting furloughed or let go.

                I am looking around thinking of all the people I work with & all the people I know, and my family, who will be OK health wise. All the money can and will be earned back.
                 
                Like I said before, my parents lived through a world war, my mother lived in Europe during the war, and the Depression; my grandparents lived through a prior world war too. I have known a lot of people with tattoos on their forearm. & my mother raised us as a single mom working in a factory. To me lives are more important because once you can earn it back unlike once you are dead. 
                 
                So dont lecture me. Well all in the same boat & we dont need people panicking over who should be thrown overboard. The most panicky always assume it should be someone else thrown overboard.
                 
                In the lifeboat we are all equals. In a pandemic we are all socialists. 

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 26, 2020 at 6:05 am

                  You 3 are clowns

          • arg2626

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 4:32 am

            For the record, I’m not anti-trump, just how his administration handled this particular situation. I’ll consider this his one failure. Let’s see if he is able to redeem himself by implementing everything described below. If he can do all that by election time, I will vote for him again.
             

            Quote from dergon

             

            Sard- Paul Romer, Nobel winning economist explains a path forward.

            Arguing for the middle-path.

            We need to get to the point of ramped up testing and PPE … but after that …

            [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html[/link]

            To protect our way of life, we need to shift within a couple of months to a targeted approach that limits the spread of the virus but still lets most people go back to work and resume their daily activities.

            This approach uses two complementary strategies. The first relies on tests to target social distancing more precisely. The second relies on protective equipment that prevents the transmission of the virus. Adopting these strategies will require a massive increase in our capacity for coronavirus testing and a surge in the production of personal protective equipment.


            Resources, not scientific breakthroughs, are needed to expand our capacity for virus tests. If we commit to this type of expansion, technological innovations will continue to lower the cost and increase the speed of the existing tests. 

            We could start by screening the general public on a weekly basis. It might make sense to test health care and emergency response workers daily. We do not have the capacity to do this now, but all it would take to make this happen is for the federal government to make coronavirus testing an urgent goal and to fund it accordingly.

            [link=https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic]Tests to detect antibodies[/link] to the novel coronavirus are also becoming available. If recovery confers [link=https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus]immunity[/link], as seems to be the case for SARS and MERS, these tests will identify individuals who would neither be harmed by exposure to the virus nor expose anyone else to the risk of infection. They would not need additional testing.

            Both people with immunity and those who do not have the virus could go back to work and resume their daily activities while minimizing the risk to others.

            We must also give protective equipment to anyone who does not have antibodies, because others will pose a risk to them. Few people are at [link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html]greater risk[/link] than the doctors, nurses and first responders who care for infected patients. In the Lombardy region of Italy, [link=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30644-9/fulltext]20 percent[/link] of health care professionals have been infected.

            Widespread testing will help identify patients who are infected, and officials can encourage them to isolate themselves, but some will not obey. Others will be so sick that they need immediate care. Every health worker should have easy access to masks, gloves, gowns and face shields.

            In the long run, we are likely to have better options a vaccine perhaps, or effective drug treatments. And at some point, herd immunity, when so many people have immunity that others are unlikely to encounter and fall victim to the virus, will make this coronavirus a far more manageable threat.

            But we cannot afford to wait and hope. John Maynard Keynes famously quipped that in the long run, we are all dead. If we keep up our current strategy of suppression based on indiscriminate social distance for 12 to 18 months, most of us will still be alive. It is our economy that will be dead.

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 5:23 am

              Quote from MRItech

              For the record, I’m not anti-trump, just how his administration handled this particular situation. I’ll consider this his one failure. Let’s see if he is able to redeem himself by implementing everything described below. If he can do all that by election time, I will vote for him again.

              Quote from dergon

              Sard- Paul Romer, Nobel winning economist explains a path forward.

              Arguing for the middle-path.

              We need to get to the point of ramped up testing and PPE … but after that …

              [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-depression.html[/link]

              To protect our way of life, we need to shift within a couple of months to a targeted approach that limits the spread of the virus but still lets most people go back to work and resume their daily activities.

              This approach uses two complementary strategies. The first relies on tests to target social distancing more precisely. The second relies on protective equipment that prevents the transmission of the virus. Adopting these strategies will require a massive increase in our capacity for coronavirus testing and a surge in the production of personal protective equipment.


              Resources, not scientific breakthroughs, are needed to expand our capacity for virus tests. If we commit to this type of expansion, technological innovations will continue to lower the cost and increase the speed of the existing tests. 

              We could start by screening the general public on a weekly basis. It might make sense to test health care and emergency response workers daily. We do not have the capacity to do this now, but all it would take to make this happen is for the federal government to make coronavirus testing an urgent goal and to fund it accordingly.

              [link=https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic]Tests to detect antibodies[/link] to the novel coronavirus are also becoming available. If recovery confers [link=https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus]immunity[/link], as seems to be the case for SARS and MERS, these tests will identify individuals who would neither be harmed by exposure to the virus nor expose anyone else to the risk of infection. They would not need additional testing.

              Both people with immunity and those who do not have the virus could go back to work and resume their daily activities while minimizing the risk to others.

              We must also give protective equipment to anyone who does not have antibodies, because others will pose a risk to them. Few people are at [link=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html]greater risk[/link] than the doctors, nurses and first responders who care for infected patients. In the Lombardy region of Italy, [link=https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30644-9/fulltext]20 percent[/link] of health care professionals have been infected.

              Widespread testing will help identify patients who are infected, and officials can encourage them to isolate themselves, but some will not obey. Others will be so sick that they need immediate care. Every health worker should have easy access to masks, gloves, gowns and face shields.

              In the long run, we are likely to have better options a vaccine perhaps, or effective drug treatments. And at some point, herd immunity, when so many people have immunity that others are unlikely to encounter and fall victim to the virus, will make this coronavirus a far more manageable threat.

              But we cannot afford to wait and hope. John Maynard Keynes famously quipped that in the long run, we are all dead. If we keep up our current strategy of suppression based on indiscriminate social distance for 12 to 18 months, most of us will still be alive. It is our economy that will be dead.

              A thread-the-needle, not-too-hot-not-too-cold mission. As in, Dergon is wishing for an impossible task for someone else to navigate out of the economic hole he had inadvery wished for. In other words, giving himself an out.

              3 months later “we’d not be in this economc mess if they had implemented the mission I proposed”

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 5:40 am

                South Korea threaded the needle

                But ya know its better to mentally masturbate over death rates of 0.01 vs 0.1

                Its better to second guess than it is to prevent

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 26, 2020 at 5:43 am

                  In January when our senate and president were being briefed about this virus

                  ……. did they go out and prepare and start mobilizing

                  …. no the senate sold all their stock holdings and the president decided to call it a nothingburger that was under control

                  Thats why we are where we are

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    March 26, 2020 at 5:53 am

                    We get it, you 3 hate Trump. Get over it. The election happened 4 years ago.

                    • sehyj1

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 6:01 am

                      Quote from Jimboboy

                      We get it, you 3 hate Trump. Get over it. The election happened 4 years ago.

                      And they want a health care system similar to those in Italy and Spain

                    • kayla.meyer_144

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 6:05 am

                      By the looks of it we might already proven to have one as capable as Spain & Italy has for handling pandemics, api7342. 

              • arg2626

                Member
                March 26, 2020 at 5:57 am

                 
                A thread-the-needle, not-too-hot-not-too-cold mission. As in, Dergon is wishing for an impossible task for someone else to navigate out of the economic hole he had inadvery wished for. In other words, giving himself an out.

                3 months later “we’d not be in this economc mess if they had implemented the mission I proposed”

                 
                Not an impossible task. Making a much more accessible serology test is possible. It was done in asia back in January.
                 
                [link=https://globalbiodefense.com/headlines/singapore-first-to-test-out-covid-19-serological-assay-in-outbreak-contact-tracing/]https://globalbiodefense….break-contact-tracing/[/link]

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 4:56 am

      Quote from MRItech

      Quote from Dr.Sardonicus

      Since we are being anecdotal here – among those injured economically will be those in my immediate family. One has a 3 year old business that was doing very very well. He is closed. He has payments due on millions of  dollars of loans, and no income. He may go under, or I may have to make those (high) payments for him.  Another is without a job, and NO ONE is interviewing now. His emergency fund will be gone in a month. I may have to feed and house them. 

      Your family member would continue to do very well today had we taken measures earlier. Take a look at Japan and casualty counts. They got hit earlier than us, a typical Japanese city is much more crowded, and has a much older population. That is what I consider control. Yet we are heading towards Italy scenario. Our government has failed to act earlier on, and brought on this economy disaster. We had 2 months. We did nothing.

       
       
      if those measures were social distancing and shutting down businesses – no – they would have done just the same, only 2 months earlier. 

      Japan did NOT institute the radical measures we have, yet, as you point out, they remain relatively untouched. 

      “Unlike Chinas draconian isolation measures, the mass quarantine in much of Europe and big U.S. cities ordering people to [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/san-francisco-s-shelter-in-place-order-shows-u-s-what-s-to-come]shelter in place[/link], Japan has imposed no lockdown. While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population. Tokyo rush hour trains are still packed and restaurants remain open.”

      [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it]https://www.bloomberg.com…d-in-japan-where-is-it[/link]
       
       

      • arg2626

        Member
        March 26, 2020 at 5:19 am

        Time will tell. If casualties blew up in Japan, then OK she fucked up too. Not seeing that now. But back to the point, accurate identification and containment of disease cluster seems to be the key. We fail at that task. 
         
        We digressed from OP topic. If there can be a much better model to avoid that many casualties, then the COVID situation is definitely not a nothing burger. If it ends up being a nothing burger, I want something better, like Japan’s, Taiwan’s, Singapore’s, or Hong Kong’s burger.
         

        Quote from Dr.Sardonicus

        Quote from MRItech

        Quote from Dr.Sardonicus

        Since we are being anecdotal here – among those injured economically will be those in my immediate family. One has a 3 year old business that was doing very very well. He is closed. He has payments due on millions of  dollars of loans, and no income. He may go under, or I may have to make those (high) payments for him.  Another is without a job, and NO ONE is interviewing now. His emergency fund will be gone in a month. I may have to feed and house them. 

        Your family member would continue to do very well today had we taken measures earlier. Take a look at Japan and casualty counts. They got hit earlier than us, a typical Japanese city is much more crowded, and has a much older population. That is what I consider control. Yet we are heading towards Italy scenario. Our government has failed to act earlier on, and brought on this economy disaster. We had 2 months. We did nothing.

        if those measures were social distancing and shutting down businesses – no – they would have done just the same, only 2 months earlier. 

        Japan did NOT institute the radical measures we have, yet, as you point out, they remain relatively untouched. 

        “Unlike Chinas draconian isolation measures, the mass quarantine in much of Europe and big U.S. cities ordering people to [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/san-francisco-s-shelter-in-place-order-shows-u-s-what-s-to-come]shelter in place[/link], Japan has imposed no lockdown. While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population. Tokyo rush hour trains are still packed and restaurants remain open.”

        [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it]https://www.bloomberg.com…d-in-japan-where-is-it[/link]

  • arg2626

    Member
    March 26, 2020 at 4:40 am

    Yes its 20/20 hindsight and making the right call as a president is hard. But lack of practice with SARS is not good excuse. There’s two months time to prepare. We just needed to watch and copy, don’t need to invent any new policies. The countries with working policies were so obvious even earlier on.
     
    Germany didn’t have experience with SARS, why is it doing well?
     

    Quote from Jimboboy

    The shoulda-coulda-tested-more guys with political agendas up their (you know who you are), point of fact, the US has deployed testing faster than most other countries. The high confirmed cases vs relative smaller death count so far would indicate so.

    And you’re forgetting. The asian counties had practice with SARS and MERS. US didn’t.

    Take your 20/20 hindsight blame goggles off.

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 4:57 am

      To shed some more light on what we are dealing with in NYC, I am one of three radiologists in our 250-bed hospital, and I have a spreadsheet in which I fill in with the COVID patients I have diagnosed. So far I have 46 cases and i would estimate about 1/4 are intubated. The last 30 showed up in the first three days of this week, which matches the predicted exponential growth. All of these peoples’ lungs look terrible, and there are a bunch of them (I would say 10-15) who are younger than 50. I have no idea how this can be managed if it escalates for two more weeks per Governor Cuomo’s prediction. I know we cleared out a ton of space to make additional ICU beds but how many ventilators can we have? 
       
       

      • Unknown Member

        Deleted User
        March 26, 2020 at 6:07 am

        Quote from ts298

        I have no idea how this can be managed if it escalates for two more weeks per Governor Cuomo’s prediction. 

         
        First of all what you are dealing with is horrible. I am very sorry to hear. My thoughts ar with all of you that are on the front lines. I applaud the work you are doing. 
         
        I just have to point out that you should not be worrying about your governors prediction. It is based on flawed calculations. There are a few of us that have been making this point for weeks. It will likely get worse but it will level off well below the predicted mortality numbers. 

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 26, 2020 at 6:10 am

          This means we hate Trump

          In January when our senate and president were being briefed about this virus

          ……. did they go out and prepare and start mobilizing

          …. no the senate sold all their stock holdings and the president decided to call it a nothingburger that was under control

          Thats why we are where we are

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 26, 2020 at 6:11 am

            Pointing out how fng unprepared we were means we hate trump

            Jimbo loves trump so he has to claim the death rate is less that than of the flu

            Who is being honest here

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 6:16 am

              Wouldnt it have been wiser if after the January briefing

              The senate passed legislation that ramped up production of PPE and ventilators and ramped up our ability to test individuals quickly and massively

              No …,,. Our senators cashed out and sold their stock

              Our president denied it was real

              BUT OHHHHH MY GOD IF WE POINT OUT HOW UNPREPARED WE WERE………. then we must just hate trump

              Are you people for real

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 6:32 am

              Thanks. Fortunately I’m holed up in the reading room and isolated. I hope Cuomo is wrong, and this will stop soon. 
               
              A couple of strange cases have come by for example – I had a patient with a ruptured appendix whose lungs on the CT A/P looked like she had COVID. I had a similar case with an acute bowel issue who also had GGOs (that looked like COVID) in the lung bases on CT A/P. Of course the appendiceal/bowel issues are unrelated to the potential COVID in the lungs, but it makes me wonder, how widespread is this disease in the NYC area that it’s showing up incidentally in these scans?
               
               

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 6:34 am

                How do GGOs you attribute to COVID look any different than nonspecific GGO due to other infectious or inflammatory process?

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 26, 2020 at 6:43 am

                  What is a GGO

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    March 26, 2020 at 6:46 am

                    Ground glass opacities.

                    Thanks Ts, other NY rads here to give us a similar flavor of things to come?

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 6:48 am

                      Ok. Duhhhh my bad

                • Unknown Member

                  Deleted User
                  March 26, 2020 at 6:44 am

                  Some or all of the GGOs are subpleural and have about three different shapes in all the COVID patients I’ve seen (patchy, wedge-like, lobar). 
                   
                  Once you see a bunch of the COVID patients you get a “feel” for what the GGOs look like. 

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    March 26, 2020 at 7:01 am

                    Agreed. The Covid chest cases are quite distinctive. Not sure why ACR doesn’t want us spelling it out in our impressions. 

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 7:13 am

                      [link=https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/?utm_medium=offsite&utm_source=yahoo&utm_campaign=yahoo-non-hosted&yptr=yahoo]https://www.theatlantic.c…-non-hosted&yptr=yahoo[/link]

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 7:32 am

                      Great article. Has something for everyone. So we can all come out saying “told ya so”

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 7:47 am

                      Yeah it does

                      Scientific evidence is a good thing

                      Unfortunately about this there wasnt a lot known because it was new and came on so quickly

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 7:48 am

                      But still no excuses for being in denial intitially and miserably ill prepared

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 7:57 am

                      Interesting. Its great youre collecting these cases. Hopefully you can write this up for publication.

                    • ljohnson_509

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:00 am

                      Have all the other causes of Ground glass opacities disappeared since Covid started? Dont think this is an imaging diagnosis.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 7:59 am

                      In fact just saw on CNBC a company is developing a pin prik skin test for antibodies to determine immunity to Covid

                      15 minutes it takes

                      If we would have focused on testing and early prevention we would have never had to shut down the country

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 8:00 am

                      …… but of course if any brings this up

                      They must just hate Trump

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 26, 2020 at 6:26 am

          This means we hate trump

          In January when our senate and president were being briefed about this virus

          ……. did they go out and prepare and start mobilizing

          …. no the senate sold all their stock holdings and the president decided to call it a nothingburger that was under control

          Thats why we are where we are

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 26, 2020 at 6:33 am

            And jimbo of course spends the last 3 years trying to convince us that AI is going to replace us by 2020

            …… is now an expert in epidemiology

            Mental masturbatuon about something that cant really be proven or disproven

        • satyanar

          Member
          April 22, 2020 at 6:36 am

          Quote from ADHD

          Quote from ts298

          I have no idea how this can be managed if it escalates for two more weeks per Governor Cuomo’s prediction. 

          First of all what you are dealing with is horrible. I am very sorry to hear. My thoughts ar with all of you that are on the front lines. I applaud the work you are doing. 

          I just have to point out that you should not be worrying about your governors prediction. It is based on flawed calculations. There are a few of us that have been making this point for weeks. It will likely get worse but it will level off well below the predicted mortality numbers. 

           
          There is no need to type anything new in this thread. ADHD has said it all. Most of it weeks ago. 

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 5:00 am

      “Yes its 20/20 hindsight and making the right call as a president is hard.”

      you answered the question yourself. Why are you asking me? I’m not excusing Trump at all. He F’d up

      • kayla.meyer_144

        Member
        March 26, 2020 at 6:12 am

        Quote from Jimboboy

        “Yes its 20/20 hindsight and making the right call as a president is hard.”

        you answered the question yourself. Why are you asking me? I’m not excusing Trump at all. He F’d up

        On the contrary, you are. The reality is 180° opposite from what you are arguing, youre more concerned with defending Trump then with coming up with a solution.
         
        The question was how are these other countries managing to do better than we are, and the answer is they did not cut off their arm for political reasons. You see that as a criticism of Trump and we need to get over it, I see it as the direct answer to the question.
         
        So before you start accusing others of political rationales, look in the mirror and also look at the menu were defending, Donald Trump who makes decisions based on politics and make himself look good regardless of who it hurts. That is reality.
         
        That was medical people we should be concerned with saving lives not saving Wall Street.

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 26, 2020 at 6:00 am

    My point was that dergon is using that as an excuse to extricate himself. A stupid gimmick. He’s not really interested in proposing a solution. He’s just interested in getting Trump out of the WH. Nothing else matters. Not the economy, not the lives, other than his immediate concerns, that is.

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 26, 2020 at 6:18 am

    Lets start discussing how best to restart the economy in the most affective but safest way. First, just let everyone go back to work and utilize local businesses. This can be done with improved infection control procedures and we can still be safe. Most importantly allow patients to go back to routine medical appointments. This is vital for the health of our system.

    In the beginning it should be local. It is still best to limit movement out of the most heavy it areas like NYC. However, in a few weeks NYC will have run through its cases. Almost everyone will have it that was going to get it. Local business should begin again. 
    It wont be time to allow large gatherings for a few months or more. That means no sporting events etc. this was the lifeblood of our economy. So many small businesses revolves around big events. This is why we will not see a rapid economic recovery. This was an economy relying on a debt bubble. That will pop off it hasnt already and many bus will fail. As Dr. S said above its already happening. 

    • btomba_77

      Member
      March 26, 2020 at 6:25 am

       First, just let everyone go back to work and utilize local businesses.

       
      Nope.
       

      This can be done with improved infection control procedures and we can still be safe.

       
      [i]After[/i] we ramp up testing and PPE. … we are still many weeks away from that.
       
       
       

       Most importantly allow patients to go back to routine medical appointments.

       
      Until we have a means of reliably separating potential Covid carrier from non-carriers we can’t go back to business as usual. That includes non-urgent medical care.  See above for ramped up testing and PPE.

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 26, 2020 at 6:50 am

    No biggie

  • satyanar

    Member
    March 26, 2020 at 8:01 am

    Just heard this GMA teaser. Cuomo says the rate of hospitalization may be slowing down

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 8:09 am

      Also

      We dont vote for senators so they can get inside information and cash out their stock portfolios while lying about the potential severity of a significant event

      Im sorry but that doesnt make one a trump hater

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 26, 2020 at 8:31 am

    Simple question

    When you say this where are you getting your data from

    So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible.

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 8:36 am

      Quote from kpack123

      Simple question

      When you say this where are you getting your data from

      So if this virus does indeed end up with a 0.01-0.1% mortality rate which is looking more and more plausible.

       
      First, please tell us if you have ever heard of the term denominator before.
       
      5-10 people have given you this answer and the reasoning behind it for over a week now. Stanford Nobel laureates have as well. That doesn’t make them right, it just shows that you can’t read, or understand very much. Maybe AI would be better than kpack at radiology. I’m worried now.

  • mariana.gonzalez_122

    Member
    March 26, 2020 at 8:48 am

    I have been seeing a lot and agree with the statement that you get a feel for it. Despite the acr emphasizing the nonspecific nature it is in reality pretty specific once you see the pattern. So far we have accurately called many cases.

    • Unknown Member

      Deleted User
      March 26, 2020 at 8:50 am

      ADHD

      Im just asking for the third time for a link or just a little proof for you to back up your claim

      Why at are you afraid of

      • Unknown Member

        Deleted User
        March 26, 2020 at 9:10 am

        Quote from kpack123

        ADHD

        Im just asking for the third time for a link or just a little proof for you to back up your claim

        Why at are you afraid of

         
        What? I know I am just being trolled but I can’t help myself.
         
        There is a link to the WSJ article but unless you pay for it you won’t be able to see it. JBB copied and pasted it earlier in this thread. Just scroll back to it. If after you have read it and can come up with a flaw in the reasoning I will respond.

        • kayla.meyer_144

          Member
          March 26, 2020 at 9:26 am

          I am curious ADHD and jimbo and cigar/IB/Castlevania & all the other doubters that are blowing this off as a nothingburger, what states do you live in & what is you experience in seeing COVID patients & GGO CTs? Because it sure looks like those of us in the midst of this pandemic are rather scared and cautious, the exact opposite of your discussions. 

          • kayla.meyer_144

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 9:27 am

            A nothingburger virus worrying enough that people on the front lines are making sure their wills are sritten or updated.
             
            Yeah, a big fat nothing.
             
            [link=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/doctors-coronavirus-safety.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/doctors-coronavirus-safety.html[/link]
             

            Michelle Au works at Emory St. Josephs Hospital in Atlanta, Ga. These days she feels like she works at Chernobyl.
             
            As an anesthesiologist, Dr. Au is responsible for one of the most dangerous parts of tending to patients with the coronavirus: intubating those who cant breathe. The procedure, which involves snaking a tube into the patients trachea, is so dangerous because it brings the doctor close to the patients mouth, which is constantly shedding the virus. Patients sometimes exhale or cough as the tube is inserted, which [link=https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2763329/covid-19-risk-health-care-workers-case-report]aerosolizes the virus[/link], allowing it to hang in the air for several hours.
             
            Last week Dr. Au intubated two patients with Covid-19. Youre aware of every moment youre in there, she told me. Ten seconds. Twenty seconds. Thirty seconds. You feel radioactive.
             
            Have you seen the HBO show Chernobyl? she asked. There are invisible risks that trail you.
             
            Those invisible risks a trace of the coronavirus under a fingernail or on a strand of hair dont give Dr. Au nightmares just because she is worried about her own health and that of her colleagues. Its because waiting at home she has a husband and three children.
             

            And so every day before she leaves the hospital, Dr. Au takes a shower, washes her hair and changes clothes. Then she does the same thing at home, her old clothes now contaminated because she wore them in her car. Last, she takes a diluted bleach solution and wipes down every surface she has touched: doorknobs, car handle, phone and so on.
             
            Not long ago she would have thought these precautions were crazy. Now, she said, it seems completely reasonable.
             
            For two weeks she has slept in the basement, while her husband, a surgeon, sleeps in their bedroom, because, One of us has to stay healthy.

             
            [b]Early research shows that health care workers are [link=https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/keeping-the-coronavirus-from-infecting-health-care-workers]more likely[/link] to contract the coronavirus than the average person and, when they get it, to suffer [link=https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/health/doctors-coronavirus-health-care-hit-harder/index.html]more severe symptoms.[/link] Many doctors are already rationing the protective gowns, gloves and masks that are necessary to keep them safe.[/b]
             
            [b]They are also drawing up their wills.[/b]
             

             
             

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 9:32 am

              So wait

              Trolling is now asking someone for a link?

              Look if your case is so strong then show us the money

              Getting a feel that this is another aunt Minnie gold will be 3500$ iOS and absolutel no brainer and everyone who disagrees is just clueless

              Same sheet different year all the geniuses with nothing but bluster to support their claims

          • kayla.meyer_144

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 10:08 am

            A disaster. 
             
            Be very happy about reading from home because others have to be on the firing line & get paid a lot less, directly risking their health as well as their family’s.
             
            [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/some-health-care-workers-resist-orders-to-work-without-adequate-protection/2020/03/25/d39e652c-6e97-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html]https://www.washingtonpos…2470c6b2034_story.html[/link]

             

            Like Barnett, some health-care workers have begun to resist pressure to work with inadequate protection during the coming tsunami of [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?tid=lk_inline_manual_7&itid=lk_inline_manual_7]coronavirus[/link] cases. To do so, they must buck the pandemics all-hands-on-deck ethos, the medical tradition of accepting elevated risk in a crisis and the threat of discipline from employers.
             

            Confrontations and difficult personal decisions are occurring as hospital administrators enforce rationing of masks, face shields and other equipment for workers worried about protecting themselves.

             
            Its killing me. Every day I am having to discuss with my wife that I literally feel like a coward for running away from this, Barnett said. I either suck up that particular feeling and put it in my pocket or I put my family at risk.
             
            The widespread shortage of masks, eye shields and other protective equipment for health-care workers at U.S. medical facilities has become [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-19-hits-doctors-nurses-emts-threatening-health-system/2020/03/17/f21147e8-67aa-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_14&itid=lk_inline_manual_14]a fact of the pandemic[/link]. Nurses and others have complained for weeks, publicly and privately, about the risk of leaving themselves needlessly exposed to a highly contagious respiratory disease. Even with the best of equipment, health-care workers suffer disproportionate losses in outbreaks like this
             
            Labor unions have noted that in China, where supplies were more plentiful, health-care workers were told to double up on gowns and other protective equipment. They have warned of a catastrophe if many health-care workers fall ill.
             

            Dee Shine was sitting at her desk at MedStar Washington Hospital Centers eye clinic last week when she took a surgical mask from a box behind her and began to greet patients. She said some doctors had been pleading with their bosses to close the office, but she accepted being there. [b]She needs the $21.36 an hour she is paid.[/b]

             
            Soon, she said, she was summoned to the human resources department and told to go home. She had been suspended indefinitely for wearing the mask.
             

            They said they were saving them for staff, she said, and the masks would scare the patients off.

            Shine, a 40-year-old mother of four, said she has been a medical office assistant at Washington Hospital since 2015. A day earlier, she said, her manager had asked her to take off the mask. When she explained she had asthma and no one had asked her to remove the mask, she believed continued use of it was allowed. 

             

            • afazio.uk_887

              Member
              March 26, 2020 at 10:31 am

              I have to admit, this crisis has made me appreciate being a radiologist a lot more.   I can’t fathom what it is like to be a front line clinician right now.  I am able to do a lot of my job remotely and only go into the hospital when necessary, and even then able to spend most of my hospital time alone in the reading room.  We are very fortunate to be radiologists.

              • katiemckee84_223

                Member
                March 26, 2020 at 10:39 am

                Quote from Waduh Dong

                I have to admit, this crisis has made me appreciate being a radiologist a lot more.   I can’t fathom what it is like to be a front line clinician right now.  I am able to do a lot of my job remotely and only go into the hospital when necessary, and even then able to spend most of my hospital time alone in the reading room.  We are very fortunate to be radiologists.

                 
                totally agree
                 
                and incidentally, like everything else in medicine, it allows us to actually look at this impossible burger with objectivity. Well, at least some of us who aren’t lemmings.

                • kayla.meyer_144

                  Member
                  March 26, 2020 at 10:43 am

                  So where do you work, IB? I assume not in NYC area by your nonchalance and cheerleading even about people dying.

                  • katiemckee84_223

                    Member
                    March 26, 2020 at 10:45 am

                    Quote from Frumious

                    So where do you work, IB? I assume not in NYC area by your nonchalance and cheerleading even about people dying.

                     
                    Just stop lying. Or accuse me of not being a doctor. You took the Hippocratic oath but still support killing human babies. Oh yeah, they changed the oath when you took it. I forgot. So you wouldn’t feel bad.

                    • kayla.meyer_144

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 10:56 am

                      So just answer the question. I’m not asking for the specific hospital after all.

                    • stlmchenry_510

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 10:56 am

                      Mass testing makes no sense. Testing only makes sense if some of the drugs that are being used actually work and testing for people who will be exposed to immunocompromised people. The treatment is basically supportive right now. Some numbers say 60% of the globe will be affected and this will be cyclical like influenza. Money needs to be put immediately into hospitals, ventilators, treatments and vaccines not mass testing or even testing those with flu-like symptoms unless theyre going to be near immunocompromised patients or people. Money into development of a super rapid test may be well spent though if effective treatments are found. Just my two cents. The general population is freaking out about not being able to get a test, when right now, when the treatment is supportive and if the numbers are right, 60% of the world may be infected, then….whats the point?

                    • arg2626

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:14 pm

                      Not indiscriminate testing. I’ll follow what some asian countries have done to a T. Work with pharmaceutical companies to manufacture ELISA based test. They are cheaper and yield result faster. It gives me chills that most of USA is still using PCR based test which means the machine is idle till you have enough samples to run an assay and each run takes hours. Test everyone present on the same site when a cluster is discovered. Mandatory 14 day quarantine and retest. Design a robust tracing log of where people are and have been. Spread some rational fear among citizens so they avoid big events and wear masks wherever they go- really just state the truth.
                       
                      All the above are probably too late for some states like New York or California. But maybe can still work for some less affected states. Close state borders where the disease is out of control. Have other states participate in helping manufacture PPE and ventilators (and create jobs).
                       
                      Work hard on the get-go to control the epidemic. Be hailed as a hero and get re-elected.
                       

                      Quote from Picasso01

                      Mass testing makes no sense. Testing only makes sense if some of the drugs that are being used actually work and testing for people who will be exposed to immunocompromised people. The treatment is basically supportive right now. Some numbers say 60% of the globe will be affected and this will be cyclical like influenza. Money needs to be put immediately into hospitals, ventilators, treatments and vaccines not mass testing or even testing those with flu-like symptoms unless theyre going to be near immunocompromised patients or people. Money into development of a super rapid test may be well spent though if effective treatments are found. Just my two cents. The general population is freaking out about not being able to get a test, when right now, when the treatment is supportive and if the numbers are right, 60% of the world may be infected, then….whats the point?

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 10:58 am

              Castlevania you’re comparing the question on COVID-19 mortality stats to complaining about slavery ir playing the race card? Thats idiotic and either youve got too much time on your hands or may be one of those slavery/racists apologists

          • katiemckee84_223

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 10:44 am

            Quote from Frumious

            I am curious ADHD and jimbo and cigar/IB/Castlevania & all the other doubters that are blowing this off as a nothingburger, what states do you live in & what is you experience in seeing COVID patients & GGO CTs? Because it sure looks like those of us in the midst of this pandemic are rather scared and cautious, the exact opposite of your discussions. 

             
            I will answer this in due time. It has been both GGO and something that is more similar to organizing pneumonia in its density, but not cavitation or necessarily other characteristics, more random. The hospital I am at has many sick patients, many concurrent diseases and risk factors, and the hospital is a nidus. Of course they are going to be COVID positive and also have more severe symptoms. As Sardo said, it’s selected to be that way. And those of us who know about stats and bias, understand this.

    • julie.young_645

      Member
      March 26, 2020 at 10:38 am

      A few random thoughts…
       
      I see a lot of finger-pointing at Trump, and not a peep about China. 
       
      This disease started in a wet-market in China, as have quite a few other serious maladies. You’ve heard what goes on there. Feral game animals in cages on top of cages on top of cages. And we all know what goes downhill. This sort of thing is ignored, well, actually encouraged by the Chinese Communist government, which realizes that its failed philosophy cannot possibly feed all the billion-plus Chinese citizens. 
       
      Once the disease arose, China did everything it could to obfuscate what was happening, and used its puppet head of WHO to continue the ruse. It is toward the Chinese Communist Government that you should direct your ire. There are several lawsuits in progress that will probably go nowhere, but the Chinese government must somehow be taken to task over this. At the very least, every last wet-market in every last village needs to be torched. I really don’t give a hoot about cultural differences or any other excuse…this HAS to be done. NOW. 
       
      I don’t really think Trump f’d up on this. I shudder to think what might have happened had Mrs. Clinton been President during this crisis. No doubt there would be complete and utter chaos. Platitudes (“Ah Feeeeeeeel Yooooore Paaaayyyyynnnnn!) and looting of the relief effort would be the order of the day, as the Clintons pulled with Haitian aid. Don’t bother to deny it. They would have listened to the scientists, all right, most likely the head of WHO who is in the pocket of the Chinese Government. And Biden? He barely knows what planet he’s on. Boiney would have eventually not let this crisis go to waste and would have nationalized any industry he possibly could. And G-d have tremendous mercy upon our souls should Trump AND Pence become incapacitated and Pelosi takes over. I would go kiss a COVID-19 patient to just get it over with if that happened. 
       
      The main criticism I see is that we didn’t ramp up testing fast enough. I agree in part, but that isn’t the entire story. No, the MAIN problem is the rebelliousness (well, more accurately, laziness, selfishness, stupidity, and so on) manifested by Americans. Many simply WILL NOT socially distance themselves. “It’s Spring Break! Gotta Party, man!” “I can go the the grocery/work even though I’ve got some minor symptoms!” And so on. Americans as a whole hate to be regimented. For everyone you can scare into behaving, and for every American that hoarded hand-sanitizer and wears a mask to the grocery store, there is another one who just thinks all this doesn’t apply to him. Stupid? Delusional? Or just plain stubborn. Excepting China, the nations where this thing has spread like wildfire are those with somewhat similar free-spirits, and those who have bent the curve (Singapore, South Korea, Japan) are those where the people will more readily listen to authority and FOLLOW the recommendations. It is very common to see masks on pedestrians in those nations, but certainly not ours. I have said before that Americans won’t tolerate any version of M4A due to this stubbornness, and I stand by that. (By the way, when the sh!t hit the fan, I didn’t see anyone counting on Sweden or Norway or Denmark or England or Canada or Switzerland or Germany or France, et. al. to save us. The world counts on [i]American Medicine[/i]. Think about it.)
       
      Trump probably won’t escape this politically unscathed, although the huge bailout (thank you to my great-great-grandchildren whom I will never meet but who will be paying for it) will most likely right the economy and get him (barely) reelected. Keep in mind Trump’s dilemma as our leader…he was not in direct charge of every last detail (The CDC and FDA deserve significant blame for delaying testing, not Trump) and he didn’t want to panic the nation. Had we started the social distancing too early, people would have ignored it and turned on Trump. And we would today be in even worse shape. So we end up with those who won’t isolate blaming Trump for panicking anyway and those who wanted an early shelter-in-place order blaming Trump for not panicking early. There is really no way to win. 
       
      He was resoundingly trashed for closing travel to China and then Europe, even though that was the right thing to do. It probably should have been done two weeks earlier. 
       
      Being a germaphobe by nature, I’m quite content to hunker down, although every day brings another prophylactic measure I [i]should[/i] have followed…Wipe down the mail, wipe down the Amazon deliveries, no, sit them out in the sun for three days, leave your shoes outside, wash your clothes after going to the grocery…And so I reset my 14-day timer every time I realize I didn’t do one of those. And Mrs. Dalai, who is at risk, is chafing at the restrictions. “Why can’t we go to the garden store and get a plant?” Is it worth your life? Mrs. Dalai: <eye-roll>. And Dalai, Jr., is a paramedic, but at risk due to immune-suppressive medication for Crohn’s Disease. He is compelled to answer the call for first responders. I’m proud of him beyond belief, but scared sh!tless. If he gets ill, Mrs. Dalai and I will have to travel to him, and we will undoubtedly succumb. 
       
      If you pray, pray for all of us, and everyone on the planet.
       
      And remember, the [i]real[/i] culprits here are the Chinese Government, and the sh!theads who think the rules don’t apply to THEM. 

      • kayla.meyer_144

        Member
        March 26, 2020 at 11:04 am

        Regarding Germany’s low mortality, they attacked the problem early, including testing & did not delay addressing the COVID for reasons such as political, etc, that we delayed for. A major reason their mortality is lower.
         
        [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate/2020/03/24/76ce18e4-6d05-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html]https://www.washingtonpos…048b62cdb51_story.html[/link]

        For weeks, virologists here have been asked a persistent question: Why, compared to other countries, are so few of the Germans who are diagnosed with the coronavirus dying?
         
        In Italy, 9.5 percent of the people who have tested positive for the virus have succumbed to covid-19, according to data compiled at Johns Hopkins University. In France, the rate is 4.3 percent. But in Germany, its 0.4 percent.
         
        The biggest reason for the difference, infectious disease experts say, is Germanys work in the early days of [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-merkel/2020/03/18/9f34f2aa-6880-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_4&itid=lk_inline_manual_4]its outbreak[/link] to track, test and contain infection clusters. That means Germany has a truer picture of the size of its outbreak than places that test only the obviously symptomatic, most seriously ill or highest-risk patients.

        At the beginning, when we had relatively few cases, when it came to finding them and isolating them, we did quite well in Germany, said Reinhard Busse, head of the department of health care management at the Berlin University of Technology. Thats the major reason.
         
        Other factors, such as the age of those infected and the timing of Germanys outbreak, also play a role in the differing death rates. [b]But testing widely has been key[/b]. 

        Initially, at least, the countrys health authorities tracked infection clusters meticulously. When an individual tested positive, they used contact tracing to find other people with whom they had been in touch and then tested and quarantined them, which broke infection chains.
         
        Christian Drosten, a virologist at the Charité hospital in Berlin, said hes firmly convinced that Germanys high diagnostic capacity had secured us an extreme lead . . . in the detection of the epidemic.
         
        Busse said Germany is more comparable to Norway. The Scandinavian country is at a similar point in its outbreak, its also worked to test and contain cases, and it also has a death rate of 0.4 percent.
         
        With more intensive care beds and ventilators than most other European nations and early measures to prevent the spread of the virus, Lauterbach said, he didnt see Germany turning into Italy or Spain.

         

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 26, 2020 at 11:17 am

          Question for Dalai

          The president and the congress were briefed about an imminent threat that the virus presented our country mid January 2020

          Several senators (perhaps more as weve only heard of a few) sold substantial stock holdings and some even invested heavily in tele- business companies focused on working from home

          Trump administration really downplayed it told us all not to worry (I will stop there)

          Now the question is we are now panicking and scrambling … we are short of PPE and ventilators and we still cant get rapid tests and are waiting 3-5 days for turnaround

          Wouldnt it have been wise for the senate and congress and trump to alert the public…… gear up on testing first then PPE and vents?

          We are now several weeks behind the epidemic like a cat chanting our tail

          How can you not blame leadership for a F up of epic proportions?

          Respectfully submitted

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 26, 2020 at 11:23 am

            Actually, Germany already has a less steep Log death plot. Which means, they got a handle on this earlier.

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 11:29 am

              Removed due to GDPR request

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 11:31 am

                I know it’s tempting to use this to make a political point, but really, no matter your stripes, leadership should be competent. 
                 
                It’s hard to see the forest from the trees when you’re in the midst of what looks like a blossoming disaster, but we should always question “could we have done better?” 
                 
                Seems to be a “yes,” when you see NYC hospitals setting up morgues outside to handle the piles of bodies.

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                January 2, 2022 at 10:40 am

                Removed due to GDPR request

                • katiemckee84_223

                  Member
                  January 3, 2022 at 5:54 pm

                  Facts are still the facts, it’s a flu with 1% IFR tops … which means all the excess deaths are due to the [b]response[/b], stupid.
                   
                  It’ll never be the same because the planned damage and control game is too much of a high for the “Build Back better” types.

                  • Unknown Member

                    Deleted User
                    January 3, 2022 at 5:58 pm

                    Do you think there are tiny microchips in the vaccines ?

                    • katiemckee84_223

                      Member
                      January 3, 2022 at 6:04 pm

                      Do you think that all the world leaders that said the exact words “Build Back better” came up with that on their own and said it in the same week by coincidence?
                       

                    • 22002469

                      Member
                      January 3, 2022 at 6:23 pm

                      How much of a simpleton do you have to be to think a virus with an IFR of 1% (your number) that infects an entire population would not be a major problem, lead to millions of excess deaths, etc.?

                      1% = small number = small problem. Is that what were going with?

                      I guess just troll. Couldnt be a practicing physician being serious.
                       
                       
                       

                    • ruszja

                      Member
                      January 3, 2022 at 6:59 pm

                      Quote from Radsoxfan

                      How much of a simpleton to do you have to be to think a virus with an IFR of 1% (your number) that infects an entire population would not be a major problem, lead to millions of excess deaths, etc.?

                      1% = small number = small problem. Is that what were going with?

                      I guess just troll. Couldnt be a practicing physician being serious.

                      He used to harp on 0.1%. I guess he now realizes how silly that is with population mortalities in many locales already in the .3% range.

            • kayla.meyer_144

              Member
              March 26, 2020 at 11:51 am

              Quote from Jimboboy

              Actually, Germany already has a less steep Log death plot. Which means, they got a handle on this earlier.

              Precisely what the article says. Their ants vs us grasshoppers.

              • btomba_77

                Member
                March 26, 2020 at 11:59 am

                Trump sending a new letter to all governors, restructuring social distancing guidelines. He wants it done by county, classifying counties as high, moderate, or low risk.

                I wonder how many governors comply.

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 26, 2020 at 11:29 am

            Trump is selfish – he wanted this to go away and not say anything about it, he only cares for re election.  Many others in congress followed suit, some personally took care of themselves by selling all their stock.  What I have learned with this national crisis is that overall, majority of people are selfish and only care about themselves.  We have go give national mandates to people to shelter in place or they wont do it – even with those guidelines people get together in large groups in streets, beaches, etc acting without a care in the world.  Non essential Small businesses have to be told to shut down – who is going to close up and lose money for social good??  
             
            Also I can’t say that we are panicking, there is still a large proportion who simply doesnt care.  They are going to live the same way as if nothing was going on.  The panicking ones are the minority and many of which are in the acute phase of this crisis – New York City – and of those people many are dealing with this by flying out of the country.   You will find very few young people care about modifying their behavior for covid 19, simply because majority of young people are extremely selfish.   Since they dont care, we should let them work, and all old and immunocompromised should stay at home.  

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 11:32 am

              A lot of truth to what you just posted

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 11:40 am

              Quote from striker79

               
                
                 Since they dont care, we should let them work, and all old and immunocompromised should stay at home.  

               
              Excellent solution. Sign me up!

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 12:03 pm

                Full disclosure, I don’t like Trump, I like Biden less. I’m a registered democrat but don’t appreciate the DNC engineering a candidate for me. There is truth to the media bias.

                But if we’re gonna play the blame game, don’t the city leadership in NYC deserve more of the blame? They have greater jurisdiction over subway closures etc. Just saying.

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 26, 2020 at 11:38 am

          Quote from Frumious

          Regarding Germany’s low mortality, they attacked the problem early, including testing & did not delay addressing the COVID for reasons such as political, etc, that we delayed for. A major reason their mortality is lower. 
           

           
          No, a major reason their [b]estimated[/b] mortality is lower right now. If people keep confounding the case based calculation with the true mortality rate we will never see an end to this.

          • Unknown Member

            Deleted User
            March 26, 2020 at 11:39 am

            Did you find that link yet?

          • kayla.meyer_144

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 11:57 am

            Quote from ADHD

            Quote from Frumious

            Regarding Germany’s low mortality, they attacked the problem early, including testing & did not delay addressing the COVID for reasons such as political, etc, that we delayed for. A major reason their mortality is lower. 

            No, a major reason their [b]estimated[/b] mortality is lower right now. If people keep confounding the case based calculation with the true mortality rate we will never see an end to this.

            Seems like you are making 2 conclusions that are mutually contradictory. Germany’s mortality will increase while ours will be much lower in the end.
             
            And based on what exactly? Denominators? Solves everything, unknown denominators calculating to unknown but much less mortality, lower even than the common flu.
             
            I’d really like to see those links myself as the math seems fantastic.
             
            So what state do you work? Your state’s & locality’s incidence of COVID at this time?
             
             

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 1:58 pm

              Quote from Frumious

              Seems like you are making 2 conclusions that are mutually contradictory. Germany’s mortality will increase while ours will be much lower in the end.

               
              No, they both will be orders of magnitude lower in the final analysis. Fine, I’ll just call it a hunch. I have no data. I’ve just been saying it for a few weeks. That will make it even more surprising for you when we see the final numbers.

              • Unknown Member

                Deleted User
                March 26, 2020 at 2:10 pm

                Dalai

                Just an FYI

                Most of the spring breaker kids are not from Florida

                Most were out of state vacationers

                • julie.young_645

                  Member
                  March 26, 2020 at 2:27 pm

                  Quote from kpack123

                  Dalai

                  Just an FYI

                  Most of the spring breaker kids are not from Florida

                  Most were out of state vacationers

                   
                  Florida doesn’t have a corner on irresponsibility! (Louisiana might, however.) You weren’t out there cavorting with them were you? Mrs. kpack might not be happy about that…
                   
                   

                  • katiemckee84_223

                    Member
                    March 26, 2020 at 3:28 pm

                    Would the three amigos and all the clown car associates recommend that their 70+ relatives self-sequester for the next 3 years? Remember, 1 death is too many, no matter how old the person is, or how many chronic disease he has. Just too many.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:03 pm

                      I think it’s obvious the 3 are saying 18 month lockdown. Total barricade, both inside and out. Every single life must be saved from coronavirus. every… single… one. But it’s ok for people to die from everything else, like hunger, suicide, flu, cancer.

                      We can catch rain water and make cockroach traps in our basements.

                      Every business will go out of business, including, car manufacturers, food producers, and drug companies.

                      We will emerge 1.5 year from now, skin pasty from lack of sun. We will discover that even companies working on coronavirus vaccines have gone out of business. Oh no! but the coronavirus is still here, back for another 18 mo lockdown.

                      every… single… life…

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:10 pm

                      I think we should at least have POC testing available before people go back to work

                      Isnt that reasonable?

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:12 pm

                      My problem is predominately the total fumbling of preparing

                      I mean we had 2 months notice to at least have a plan

                      Now we are 3 weeks behind like a cat chasing our tail

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:15 pm

                      Quote from kpack123

                      I think we should at least have POC testing available before people go back to work

                      Isnt that reasonable?

                       
                      No

                    • arg2626

                      Member
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:35 pm

                      These were available as early as January, just not in the US. What do you mean by no?
                       

                      Quote from ADHD

                      Quote from kpack123

                      I think we should at least have POC testing available before people go back to work

                      Isnt that reasonable?

                      No

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 4:56 pm

                      Sorry I was just being snarky. It’s a more nuanced answer but I was trying to be as close to the three amigos as possible in the amount of actual information and analysis I shared with my response.

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 5:09 pm

                      Still waiting in thTT Th link their captain of information

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 5:11 pm

                      since Im
                      Dealing with Me myself and Irene here

                      Which one should I
                      Ask for the link

                    • Unknown Member

                      Deleted User
                      March 26, 2020 at 6:12 pm

                      Kpack…chill
                      They have a hunch.
                      Pandemic is over. Weve already all had it and/or its not a big deal. Its just like the seasonal flu anyway. They just had to paint a new covid sign on the influenza refrigerated morgue trucks and send along to NY. Otherwise no biggie. Every anesthetist is wearing a hazmat suit for intubation just like always during flu season. Relax.

                    • satyanar

                      Member
                      April 22, 2020 at 7:08 am

                      Quote from Ed Beretta

                      Kpack…chill
                      They have a hunch.
                      Pandemic is over. Weve already all had it and/or its not a big deal. Its just like the seasonal flu anyway. They just had to paint a new covid sign on the influenza refrigerated morgue trucks and send along to NY. Otherwise no biggie. Every anesthetist is wearing a hazmat suit for intubation just like always during flu season. Relax.

                       
                      where is Ed now? This was one of the first sarcastic straw men. 

              • satyanar

                Member
                April 22, 2020 at 7:01 am

                Quote from ADHD

                Quote from Frumious

                Seems like you are making 2 conclusions that are mutually contradictory. Germany’s mortality will increase while ours will be much lower in the end.

                No, they both will be orders of magnitude lower in the final analysis. Fine, I’ll just call it a hunch. I have no data. I’ve just been saying it for a few weeks. That will make it even more surprising for you when we see the final numbers.

                 
                This was bold. 

  • katiemckee84_223

    Member
    March 26, 2020 at 10:37 am

    Quote from ADHD

    Quote from MRItech

    1000 deaths is already few too many if its preventable

    It’s not preventable unless we are all strictly quarantined. It can only be slowed down. Should we be doing that with the flu?

     
    It is unbelievable that after a week, [i][b]and after directly dealing with this question TODAY[/b][/i], we still have to field this nothing burger question. It’s totally brainless. [b]We understand[/b] your point of view, yet you cannot fathom the silliness of your position.
     
    Should we be doing screening MRIs on the entire population? There are FAR too many people dying of (you choose it). This is getting tiresome, and it makes me exponentially worried about how brainless so many of our “colleagues” are. Utter drones.

  • julie.young_645

    Member
    March 26, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Germany has a much lower population, and yet their curves and numbers don’t look that much different than ours.  Their death rate appears lower. 
     
    [link=https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html[/link]
     
    Also, the Germans would count as being somewhat more regimented/regimentable than Americans. They probably tolerated quarantine. You can test until doomsday but if people won’t tolerate quarantine or even social distancing, well, good luck. 

    • kayla.meyer_144

      Member
      March 26, 2020 at 12:03 pm

      Quote from DoctorDalai

      Germany has a much lower population, and yet their curves and numbers don’t look that much different than ours.  Their death rate appears lower. 

      [link=https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html[/link]

      Also, the Germans would count as being somewhat more regimented/regimentable than Americans. They probably tolerated quarantine. You can test until doomsday but if people won’t tolerate quarantine or even social distancing, well, good luck. 

      So, in other words, their lower numbers, like lower numbers in other countries make no difference as to where we land with much higher numbers. In other words, out mortality and infection and ICU patients including on vents will be higher regardless because we can’t work together.
       
      How did we ever win 2 World Wars I wonder. And become the world’s economic leader.
       
       

      • afazio.uk_887

        Member
        March 26, 2020 at 12:10 pm

        SARS and MERS were both coronaviruses that did not cause worldwide pandemics.  I can see how people were lured into a false sense of security by that, viewing it as a localized Chinese problem.  I have a hard time blaming anyone for not flipping out immediately regarding this virus.  Easy to look back and say we should have done this or that. 

        • kayla.meyer_144

          Member
          March 26, 2020 at 12:16 pm

          Except other countries did do the flip and have better results as a result.

          • btomba_77

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 12:20 pm

            [link=https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489684-exclusive-top-cdc-official-warns-new-yorks-coronavirus-outbreak-is-just-a]https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489684-exclusive-top-cdc-official-warns-new-yorks-coronavirus-outbreak-is-just-a[/link]
             
             
            CDC Official’s warning:
             

            American health officials are deeply concerned that the coronavirus outbreak that has overwhelmed New York City hospitals in recent days is just the first in a wave of local outbreaks likely to strike cities across the country in the coming weeks.
             
            In an exclusive interview, Dr. Anne Schuchat, the principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said her agency is seeing early signs that the number of cases in other cities are already beginning to spike. While New York City is home to almost half the cases in the country at the moment, other cities are seeing their case counts rising at alarming rates.
             
            We’re looking at our flu syndromic data, our respiratory illness that presents at emergency departments. Across the country there’s a number of areas that are escalating. The numbers in New York are so large that they show up, but we’re looking at increases over time and we’re really seeing some in a number of places. It would be surprising to me based on what I’ve seen about how this virus spreads if it were not going to increase in many other parts of the country.”

            • Unknown Member

              Deleted User
              March 26, 2020 at 12:29 pm

              I’m not so sure. The cases we’re seeing now are what people caught before social distancing. So I don’t think we will see the spike elsewhere

      • julie.young_645

        Member
        March 26, 2020 at 1:43 pm

        Quote from Frumious

        Quote from DoctorDalai

        Germany has a much lower population, and yet their curves and numbers don’t look that much different than ours.  Their death rate appears lower. 

        [link=https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html[/link]

        Also, the Germans would count as being somewhat more regimented/regimentable than Americans. They probably tolerated quarantine. You can test until doomsday but if people won’t tolerate quarantine or even social distancing, well, good luck. 

        So, in other words, their lower numbers, like lower numbers in other countries make no difference as to where we land with much higher numbers. In other words, out mortality and infection and ICU patients including on vents will be higher regardless because we can’t work together.

        How did we ever win 2 World Wars I wonder. And become the world’s economic leader.

         
        Despite your pitiful attempt at snark, that is exactly the problem. Well, it’s not that we cannot “work together” but rather our renegade mentality leads many of us to do whatever the F we want to. [i]Spring Break! Party! Party! Party! Fat Tuesday! Mardi Gras! No f’n virus is going to stop our PARTY! [/i]I submit that this mentality, also prevalent in the nations hardest hit outside China, is responsible for the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2. 
         
        The death rate seems to depend [i]somewhat[/i] upon the condition of the infected patient. You could possibly bend that curve by isolating all the old people, but young healthy folk seem to die as well, albeit at lower rates. Basically, the ONLY tool in your virus shed is to keep people from getting infected in the first place. And that ONLY happens if people will socially distance. It is my contention that many in the United States, Spain, Italy, etc., [i]won’t, [/i]and [i]that[/i] is the problem. 
         
        Further, let us assume Trump had followed the path some outline, pulled everyone off the street with the slightest sniffle, and tested them, and told them to quarantine (which I contend they wouldn’t do). First, it seems clear that many are infectious way before they get symptoms, if they get them at all. So a huge plurality would NOT get tested anyway. Did you want all 300++Million of us tested? Highly impractical. Maybe everyone in NYC, Washington State, now Louisiana, etc.? Still next to impossible. Would simply testing the symptomatic have made a dent? Of course. But ONLY IF the patients did as they were told. Again, Trump had a lose-lose proposition. Start testing too early, and the public would lose interest. Ironically, I truly believe that starting too early would have led to the public thinking Trump was FOS (many already do anyway) and ignore anything further. Did he start too late? We will probably never know. 
         
        Again, where is your anger at the Chinese government? THEY are responsible for this, far more than Trump. Can you possibly muster a little hatred for them, too? Note, I am NOT saying we should be angry at the Chinese [i]people[/i]. As flounce points out, they cannot pick their leadership. 
         
        Finally, it appears that three Republican and one Democrat Senator wallowed in war profiteering, i.e., they used inside information to time their stock sales. IF that proves to be true, they should be expelled and punished to the fullest extent of the law. Party doesn’t matter in a thing like this, and shouldn’t matter in a time like this, either. 

        • Unknown Member

          Deleted User
          March 26, 2020 at 2:20 pm

          Quote from DoctorDalai

          Basically, the ONLY tool in your virus shed is to keep people from getting infected in the first place. And that ONLY happens if people will socially distance. It is my contention that many in the United States, Spain, Italy, etc., [i]won’t, [/i]and [i]that[/i] is the problem. 

           
          I agree with this. Let me ask this question though. If, and I realize very few believe this yet, but if the mortality rate is closer to 0.1% rather than above 1%, is it worth the social and economic toll required to accomplish it? Especially when as you say it will fail because of poor participation?
           
          Also realize, from what we are seeing, the only success would be to spread the curve so wide that the curb to productivity would continue so long that it the likelihood of bouncing back is very low. Total deaths over the time period would be roughly the same. There are very few places where the lack of ICU and ventilator support theory have come to fruition. NYC is close but not there yet.

          • julie.young_645

            Member
            March 26, 2020 at 2:30 pm

            Quote from ADHD

            Quote from DoctorDalai

            Basically, the ONLY tool in your virus shed is to keep people from getting infected in the first place. And that ONLY happens if people will socially distance. It is my contention that many in the United States, Spain, Italy, etc., [i]won’t, [/i]and [i]that[/i] is the problem. 

            I agree with this. Let me ask this question though. If, and I realize very few believe this yet, but if the mortality rate is closer to 0.1% rather than above 1%, is it worth the social and economic toll required to accomplish it? Especially when as you say it will fail because of poor participation?

            Also realize, from what we are seeing, the only success would be to spread the curve so wide that the curb to productivity would continue so long that it the likelihood of bouncing back is very low. Total deaths over the time period would be roughly the same. There are very few places where the lack of ICU and ventilator support theory have come to fruition. NYC is close but not there yet.

             
            And here you see Trump’s dilemma. Assume the worst and trash the economy, requiring our great-great-great-grandchildren to pay to bail us out, or assume it’s a “nothing-burger” and watch people die, with those still able pointing the finger at…Trump. What would YOU have done? What would Shrillary have done? What would Biden or (gag) Pelosi have done?

          • satyanar

            Member
            April 22, 2020 at 7:03 am

            Quote from ADHD

            Quote from DoctorDalai

            Basically, the ONLY tool in your virus shed is to keep people from getting infected in the first place. And that ONLY happens if people will socially distance. It is my contention that many in the United States, Spain, Italy, etc., [i]won’t, [/i]and [i]that[/i] is the problem. 

            I agree with this. Let me ask this question though. If, and I realize very few believe this yet, but if the mortality rate is closer to 0.1% rather than above 1%, is it worth the social and economic toll required to accomplish it? Especially when as you say it will fail because of poor participation?

            Also realize, from what we are seeing, the only success would be to spread the curve so wide that the curb to productivity would continue so long that it the likelihood of bouncing back is very low. Total deaths over the time period would be roughly the same. There are very few places where the lack of ICU and ventilator support theory have come to fruition. NYC is close but not there yet.

             
            looks like this is the first time ADHD asked the question that will not be answered by the SDP. Is there anyone out there that will answer the question?

  • Unknown Member

    Deleted User
    March 26, 2020 at 11:46 am

    Youd be hiding in house

    Who are you kidding

    You arent signing up for jack squat

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