[ruszja]

Quote from dergon

Justin Amash Is Running for President

Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI) announced an exploratory committee to run for president on the Libertarian Party ticket.

Said Amash: Were ready for a presidency that will restore respect for our Constitution and bring people together. Im excited and honored to be taking these first steps toward serving Americans of every background as president.

His 15 min are long over.

[btomba_77]

He probably saw the polling that he was going to lose his house seat.  Might as well run a kamikaze mission.
 
Will be interesting to see how he polls in MI though.   Just a few thousand votes either way could be significant. 

[fatemeheskandar]

Quote from dergon

He probably saw the polling that he was going to lose his house seat.  Might as well run a kamikaze mission.

Will be interesting to see how he polls in MI though.   Just a few thousand votes either way could be significant. 

Some are hoping he siphons off just enough republican votes to give Michigan and the presidency to Biden.
 

[19462008]

It could be the opposite, my liberal friends are not pleased with their current Presidential option or their current members of congress now. Though they dislike Trump, especially his arrogance… they see the same and overall stupidity and lack of judgement of the party they thought they were handed. I have in many ways, been an independent but have leaned more right in the past 6 years. I have not found the appropriate candidate at this time. Independents are actually the ones who try to center everyone. There is no Center Left or Center Right. Sorry, both parties are scammers and money takers and actually racial enticer’s. 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Whichever, its his ego trip. This isnt Mr. Smith Goes To Washington.

[btomba_77]

Quote from CU88

Some are hoping he siphons off just enough republican votes to give Michigan and the presidency to Biden.

 

Quote from CudaRad

It could be the opposite, my liberal friends are not pleased with their current Presidential option or their current members of congress now. 

 
I think it could cut both ways….. and I’m not really sure of the net result.
 
My gut says that not having a strong third party candidate is better for Dems and that that Amash candidacy might pull some 2016 Trump voters have grown disaffected with Trump and might have pulled the lever for Biden but now gives them a place to park their vote without being forced to choose a Democrat. 
 
 
I’m not sure I see Bernie Bros going to Amash. (But I *could* see them going to Jessie Ventura)
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/justin-amash-could-cause-some-trouble-in-november/]https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/justin-amash-could-cause-some-trouble-in-november/[/link]
 
Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November[/h1] But its not clear whether Trump or Biden should be more concerned[/h2]  
 

Amashs candidacy, in particular, could affect the margins in some key battleground states, including his home state of Michigan, which was pivotal to Trumps victory four years ago. Consider what happened in 2016: In 11 states, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnsons raw vote total exceeded the vote margin separating Trump and Hillary Clinton. Now, that doesnt mean Johnson necessarily [i]changed[/i] who won in each of those states, but he and other third-party contenders (like [link=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13576798/jill-stein-third-party-donald-trump-win]Jill Stein of the Green Party[/link]) may have helped shape the outcome, especially in the three states [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/]that proved decisive in the Electoral College[/link]: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
 
So who might Amashs candidacy hurt more in 2020 Biden or Trump? This is a hard question to answer, but there are some reasons as to why an Amash bid might hurt Trump more than Biden. [link=https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond]Estimates vary[/link] for [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-few-libertarians-but-many-americans-have-libertarian-views/]how many Americans[/link] are libertarian perhaps anywhere from 4 percent to 22 percent of the public though most voters back one of the two major parties, so were not talking about a huge portion of the electorate. That said, there is evidence that [link=https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa580.pdf]more libertarian-minded voters are more likely to vote[/link] Republican than Democratic, which could cost Trump at the ballot box.
 
Whats more, a relatively high-profile Libertarian nominee like Amash could be more successful in attracting some GOP-leaning voters away from Trump. This group might include [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-plenty-of-anti-trump-republicans-you-just-have-to-know-where-to-look/]the small slice[/link] of conservative and/or Republican voters including some [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Never_Trump_movement]Never Trumpers[/link]  [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/11/01/trumps-approval-with-republicans-is-nowhere-near-where-he-says-it-is/]who may be uncomfortable with Trump[/link] or even dislike the president. These voters in particular might like Amash because of his [link=http://acuratings.conservative.org/acu-federal-legislative-ratings/?year1=2018&chamber=11&state1=0&sortable=1]conservative record[/link], [link=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/justin-amashs-support-for-free-enterprise-earns-enmity-of-big-business]support for limited government[/link] and [link=https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/04/15/justin-amash-donald-trump-obamacare/100385722/]long-standing opposition to Trump[/link]  for instance, he was [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-learned-from-the-first-house-vote-on-impeachment/]the only non-Democrat to vote for Trumps impeachment[/link] in the House.
 
Still, an Amash bid could still present problems for Biden, too. If 2020 is a referendum election on Trumps presidency, Biden may not want another well-known candidate in the race to give potential anti-Trump voters a different choice. Polls [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/almost-half-of-voters-are-dead-set-against-voting-for-trump/]have long shown[/link] that a [link=http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-results-analysis-9/#sthash.L5mCMdd0.rtH8rYbc.dpbs]majority of voters[/link] prefer [link=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-sanders-knocks-biden-out-of-first-majority-thinks-trump-wins]an alternative candidate to Trump[/link], but that doesnt mean that alternative has to be Biden. So its possible that Amash could win over some of these voters, lowering Bidens ceiling and narrowing the race between the major-party nominees. Trump seems to have adopted this view, responding to Amashs announcement [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/29/trump-justin-amash-white-house-bid-220887]by egging on[/link] the congressman and comparing him to Stein, who some on the left [link=https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/20/jill-stein-green-party-no-regrets-2016-215281]think spoiled the election for Clinton in 2016[/link].
 
And looking at the Electoral College, Amashs impact could be most deeply felt in Michigan, where he could actually win enough votes to influence the outcome. We would expect Amash to win a larger share of the vote in his home state, considering Johnson did his best in 2016 in New Mexico, where [link=https://www.nga.org/governor/gary-e-johnson/]hed been a two-term GOP governor[/link], winning [link=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=35&f=0&off=0&elect=0]9 percent of the vote[/link]. Amash, unlike Johnson, hasnt held a statewide office, but he probably would still have an advantage in the [link=https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/MI/3]western part of Michigan[/link], which [link=https://bioguideretro.congress.gov/Home/MemberDetails?memIndex=A000367]hes represented in the House for nearly 10 years[/link]. That could get in the way of Democrats [link=https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/11/nbc-pegs-kent-county-as-most-important-2020-presidential-battleground.html]hopes of making gains[/link] in [link=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=county&year=2016&fips=26081&f=0&off=0&elect=0]traditionally Republican[/link] Kent County Amashs base and home to Grand Rapids because of [link=https://www.mlive.com/news/2018/02/which_michigan_counties_have_t_3.html]its sizable share of college-educated voters[/link]. While Biden has [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/]led most early Michigan polls[/link], Amash could complicate the race there.

[fatemeheskandar]

Quote from dergon

[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/justin-amash-could-cause-some-trouble-in-november/]https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/justin-amash-could-cause-some-trouble-in-november/[/link]

Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November But its not clear whether Trump or Biden should be more concerned  

Amashs candidacy, in particular, could affect the margins in some key battleground states, including his home state of Michigan, which was pivotal to Trumps victory four years ago. Consider what happened in 2016: In 11 states, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnsons raw vote total exceeded the vote margin separating Trump and Hillary Clinton. Now, that doesnt mean Johnson necessarily [i]changed[/i] who won in each of those states, but he and other third-party contenders (like [link=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13576798/jill-stein-third-party-donald-trump-win]Jill Stein of the Green Party[/link]) may have helped shape the outcome, especially in the three states [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/]that proved decisive in the Electoral College[/link]: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

So who might Amashs candidacy hurt more in 2020 Biden or Trump? This is a hard question to answer, but there are some reasons as to why an Amash bid might hurt Trump more than Biden. [link=https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/political-divisions-in-2016-and-beyond]Estimates vary[/link] for [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-few-libertarians-but-many-americans-have-libertarian-views/]how many Americans[/link] are libertarian perhaps anywhere from 4 percent to 22 percent of the public though most voters back one of the two major parties, so were not talking about a huge portion of the electorate. That said, there is evidence that [link=https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa580.pdf]more libertarian-minded voters are more likely to vote[/link] Republican than Democratic, which could cost Trump at the ballot box.

Whats more, a relatively high-profile Libertarian nominee like Amash could be more successful in attracting some GOP-leaning voters away from Trump. This group might include [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-plenty-of-anti-trump-republicans-you-just-have-to-know-where-to-look/]the small slice[/link] of conservative and/or Republican voters including some [link=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Never_Trump_movement]Never Trumpers[/link]  [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/11/01/trumps-approval-with-republicans-is-nowhere-near-where-he-says-it-is/]who may be uncomfortable with Trump[/link] or even dislike the president. These voters in particular might like Amash because of his [link=http://acuratings.conservative.org/acu-federal-legislative-ratings/?year1=2018&chamber=11&state1=0&sortable=1]conservative record[/link], [link=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/justin-amashs-support-for-free-enterprise-earns-enmity-of-big-business]support for limited government[/link] and [link=https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/04/15/justin-amash-donald-trump-obamacare/100385722/]long-standing opposition to Trump[/link]  for instance, he was [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-learned-from-the-first-house-vote-on-impeachment/]the only non-Democrat to vote for Trumps impeachment[/link] in the House.

Still, an Amash bid could still present problems for Biden, too. If 2020 is a referendum election on Trumps presidency, Biden may not want another well-known candidate in the race to give potential anti-Trump voters a different choice. Polls [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/almost-half-of-voters-are-dead-set-against-voting-for-trump/]have long shown[/link] that a [link=http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-results-analysis-9/#sthash.L5mCMdd0.rtH8rYbc.dpbs]majority of voters[/link] prefer [link=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-sanders-knocks-biden-out-of-first-majority-thinks-trump-wins]an alternative candidate to Trump[/link], but that doesnt mean that alternative has to be Biden. So its possible that Amash could win over some of these voters, lowering Bidens ceiling and narrowing the race between the major-party nominees. Trump seems to have adopted this view, responding to Amashs announcement [link=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/29/trump-justin-amash-white-house-bid-220887]by egging on[/link] the congressman and comparing him to Stein, who some on the left [link=https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/20/jill-stein-green-party-no-regrets-2016-215281]think spoiled the election for Clinton in 2016[/link].

And looking at the Electoral College, Amashs impact could be most deeply felt in Michigan, where he could actually win enough votes to influence the outcome. We would expect Amash to win a larger share of the vote in his home state, considering Johnson did his best in 2016 in New Mexico, where [link=https://www.nga.org/governor/gary-e-johnson/]hed been a two-term GOP governor[/link], winning [link=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=35&f=0&off=0&elect=0]9 percent of the vote[/link]. Amash, unlike Johnson, hasnt held a statewide office, but he probably would still have an advantage in the [link=https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/MI/3]western part of Michigan[/link], which [link=https://bioguideretro.congress.gov/Home/MemberDetails?memIndex=A000367]hes represented in the House for nearly 10 years[/link]. That could get in the way of Democrats [link=https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/11/nbc-pegs-kent-county-as-most-important-2020-presidential-battleground.html]hopes of making gains[/link] in [link=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=county&year=2016&fips=26081&f=0&off=0&elect=0]traditionally Republican[/link] Kent County Amashs base and home to Grand Rapids because of [link=https://www.mlive.com/news/2018/02/which_michigan_counties_have_t_3.html]its sizable share of college-educated voters[/link]. While Biden has [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/]led most early Michigan polls[/link], Amash could complicate the race there.

 
First off, it’s hard to take anything political that Nate Silver says with any seriousness.  It’s kind of like the weatherman totally screwing up yesterday’s forecast and then checking his prediction for today’s weather.
 
Secondly, if you can’t figure out who it hurts more, it’s probably irrelevant to begin with.

[btomba_77]

Actually. Silver was the closest to the 2016 election of all the major analytics team. Night of the election they were at about 30% chance of Trump winning … I think that was fair.
 
They also were dead on for the number of seats in 2018.
 
__
 
As for whether it’s relevant, it’s kind of a baseline piece, setting the guidelines for the candidacy. As polling comes in that includes Amash and other minor party candidates it might become more clear.
 
 

[fatemeheskandar]

Quote from dergon

Actually. Silver was the closest to the 2016 election of all the major analytics team. Night of the election they were at about 30% chance of Trump winning … I think that was fair.

They also were dead on for the number of seats in 2018.

__

As for whether it’s relevant, it’s kind of a baseline piece, setting the guidelines for the candidacy. As polling comes in that includes Amash and other minor party candidates it might become more clear.

That’s hardly a defense for Silver.  “Silver was the closest to the 2016 election of all the major analytics team” – true, though he still gave Trump less than a 30% chance of winning.  The fact was that he was less wrong than the other liberal media outlet predictions, kind of like being the prettiest pig at the fair.  You aren’t pretty at all, just prettier than everyone else around you.
 
If it’s a baseline piece and it’s insufficient because it needs more polls to see if it’s relevant, then it isn’t relevant.  And if all you can conclude is that you can’t conclude anything, what’s the point?

[btomba_77]

It seems like you’re failing to understand the concept of probability.
 
Saying an event has a 30% chance of happening… and then that event happens … isn’t “wrong”
 
If I tell you “there’s only a 33% chance that you will roll a 5 or a 6 on that die” and then you roll it, I wasn’t wrong.
 
30% probability events happen all the time.  Even more rare probability events still happen frequently.
 
 

[fatemeheskandar]

Quote from dergon

It seems like you’re failing to understand the concept of probability.

Saying an event has a 30% chance of happening… and then that event happens … isn’t “wrong”

If I tell you “there’s only a 33% chance that you will roll a 5 or a 6 on that die” and then you roll it, I wasn’t wrong.

30% probability events happen all the time.  Even more rare probability events still happen frequently.

You’re being pedantic by focusing on the word “wrong”.  The public turns to pollsters to predict an outcome.  When they predict a more than 70% chance of an event’s outcome and it doesn’t happen, then, yes, the public sees them as wrong.
Do you think that when someone gets rained on when the weatherman predicted a 10% chance of rain they simply say “Well, he wasn’t wrong because he only predicted a 90% chance of it not raining”?

[btomba_77]

[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/]https://fivethirtyeight.c…has-a-path-to-victory/[/link]
Nov 1, 2016, Nate Silver:
 
[b] Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory[/b]
 
Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. …
 
 
This isnt a secure map for Clinton at all. In a race where the popular vote is roughly tied nationally, Colorado and New Hampshire are toss-ups, and Clintons chances are only 60 to 65 percent in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has quite a gauntlet to run through to hold her firewall, and she [i]doesnt[/i] have a lot of good backup options. While she could still hold on to Nevada, it doesnt have enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of Michigan or Pennsylvania. And while she could win North Carolina or Florida if polls hold where they are now, theyd verge on being lost causes if the race shifts by another few points toward Trump. In fact, Clinton would [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/]probably lose the Electoral College[/link] in the event of a very close national popular vote.
 
 
Its true that Trump would have to make a breakthrough somewhere, by winning at least one state in Clintons firewall. But thats why its not only reasonable but [i]100 percent strategically correct[/i] for Trump to be [link=http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/why-is-donald-trump-in-michigan-and-wisconsin]campaigning in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin[/link]. (Ill grant that [link=http://www.kob.com/politics-news/donald-trump-albuquerque-rally-atlantic-aviation-sunport-campaign-event-politics-presidential-election-republican-hillary-clinton-democrat/4305678/]New Mexico is more of a stretch[/link].) Sure, Trumps behind in these states, but he has to win [i]somewhere[/i] where hes behind or hes consigning himself to four more years in Trump Tower instead of the White House. Michigan and Wisconsin are as reasonable as any other targets: Trump isnt any further behind in them than he is in higher-profile battleground states such as Pennsylvania, and the demographics are [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/]potentially more favorable for him[/link].
 
If you want to debate a campaigns geographic planning, Hillary Clinton [link=http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/31/hillary-clinton-arizona-phoenix-asu-election-rally-presidential-campaign/93066854/]spending time in Arizona[/link] is a [i]much[/i] worse decision than Trump hanging out in Michigan or Wisconsin. Sure, she could win the state but probably only if shes having a strong night nationally. If the results are tight next Tuesday instead, Michigan and Wisconsin are [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#tipping-point]much more likely to swing the election[/link].
 

[fatemeheskandar]

Quote from dergon

[link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/]https://fivethirtyeight.c…has-a-path-to-victory/[/link]
Nov 1, 2016, Nate Silver:

[b] Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory[/b]

Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. …

This isnt a secure map for Clinton at all. In a race where the popular vote is roughly tied nationally, Colorado and New Hampshire are toss-ups, and Clintons chances are only 60 to 65 percent in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has quite a gauntlet to run through to hold her firewall, and she [i]doesnt[/i] have a lot of good backup options. While she could still hold on to Nevada, it doesnt have enough electoral votes to make up for the loss of Michigan or Pennsylvania. And while she could win North Carolina or Florida if polls hold where they are now, theyd verge on being lost causes if the race shifts by another few points toward Trump. In fact, Clinton would [link=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/]probably lose the Electoral College[/link] in the event of a very close national popular vote.

Its true that Trump would have to make a breakthrough somewhere, by winning at least one state in Clintons firewall. But thats why its not only reasonable but [i]100 percent strategically correct[/i] for Trump to be [link=http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/why-is-donald-trump-in-michigan-and-wisconsin]campaigning in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin[/link]. (Ill grant that [link=http://www.kob.com/politics-news/donald-trump-albuquerque-rally-atlantic-aviation-sunport-campaign-event-politics-presidential-election-republican-hillary-clinton-democrat/4305678/]New Mexico is more of a stretch[/link].) Sure, Trumps behind in these states, but he has to win [i]somewhere[/i] where hes behind or hes consigning himself to four more years in Trump Tower instead of the White House. Michigan and Wisconsin are as reasonable as any other targets: Trump isnt any further behind in them than he is in higher-profile battleground states such as Pennsylvania, and the demographics are [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/]potentially more favorable for him[/link].

If you want to debate a campaigns geographic planning, Hillary Clinton [link=http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/31/hillary-clinton-arizona-phoenix-asu-election-rally-presidential-campaign/93066854/]spending time in Arizona[/link] is a [i]much[/i] worse decision than Trump hanging out in Michigan or Wisconsin. Sure, she could win the state but probably only if shes having a strong night nationally. If the results are tight next Tuesday instead, Michigan and Wisconsin are [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#tipping-point]much more likely to swing the election[/link].

I don’t know why I bother.
Dergon – you are 100% correct.
End of discussion.

[kayla.meyer_144]

So who then CU88 predicted correctly a win for Trump in 2016 besides Michael Moore? Even Trump & his people did not really expect a win. He was rather like Boris & the Brexiteers were the morning after, “WTF do we do now?”

[kaldridgewv2211]

Amash is DOA.  He’s got an insurmountable problem of getting onto ballots.  Especially when you need signed petitions for ballot access during Covid.  Best he can maybe do is snag some votes from Trump (and maybe Biden)

[btomba_77]

Well…. if he gets the libertarian party nomination that gives him something like 35 states automatically on the ballot due to the 2016 performance granting access on threshold percentage. …

And some additional states are suspending signature requirements during the pandemic.

I think Amash has a good chance of being on all 50 states ballots if he wins the libertarian nomination

[btomba_77]

Amash decides not to run for President

[btomba_77]

[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3738011-justin-amash-offers-to-serve-as-nonpartisan-speaker/]Justin Amash offers to serve as nonpartisan Speaker

[/link]

The offer from Amash, a former Republican-turned-Libertarian lawmaker, comes as House Minority Leader [link=https://thehill.com/people/kevin-mccarthy/]Kevin McCarthy [/link](R-Calif.) faces opposition from some members of his party, complicating his Speakership bid.
 
If neither party has the votes to elect a speaker of the House, Id be happy to serve as a nonpartisan speaker who ensures the institution works as its supposed toa place where all ideas are welcome and where outcomes are discovered through the process, not dictated from above, Amash said in a [link=https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1592568211073282048?s=20&t=80z5D9ous6nF-Jx6yh3kuw]tweet[/link] on Tuesday.
 
Amash was elected as a Republican in the 2010 Tea Party wave, and built a reputation of being staunchly critical of the top-down nature of congressional power. He was the first Republican to call for then-President Trumps impeachment in 2019 and later that year [link=https://thehill.com/homenews/house/451662-amash-leaves-republican-party/]left the GOP[/link] to become an independent. 
[/QUOTE]
 

If neither party has the votes to elect a speaker of the House, I’d be happy to serve as a nonpartisan speaker who ensures the institution works as it’s supposed to—a place where all ideas are welcome and where outcomes are discovered through the process, not dictated from above.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) November 15, 2022