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Is the radiology market what the housing market will be in 20 years?
Funny to see how you couldnt get a rad job in CA for the past 20 years, or you could but it sucked unless you knew someone etc. Now every group is hiring and this is true across the whole country. I remember talks of trying to lessen trainee spots during my residency which was only less than 10 years ago. I think it all comes down to the boomer bubble which exists in all facets of the economy.
Think the same will happen to housing? They talk about housing supply is too low blah blah and obviously prices and what you get for your money often blows. you think all of a sudden 10-20 years from now we’ll have a glut of houses and not enough people to fill em as these boomers eternally retire? Other areas of the economy this will happen? -
24 Replies
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It’s possible. I honestly think more than aging boomer’s and all that is the fact that people are leaving cities, intially it was due to covid, then to telework/remote options, and most recently due to rampant lawlessness in many costal cities. There is a general migration to suburbs and that seems to be where housing markets are tightest. In fact even now the housing prices in cities are plummeting. Certainly, retired aging boomers who will eventually die and leave their 50 year old house to their children, who will quickly put it on the market, will help to alleviate some of the shortage, but I don’t think completely
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I’m not a housing expert but I was told that a significant part of the housing market is a bubble created by foreign investors, mostly from China, trying to bury funds offshore for tax evasion.
I don’t think this is what is happening in Radiology.-
Agreed, I personally see a lot of people form China buying local houses in cash.
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I live in the desirable suburbs and there is no land left to develop.
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I see Canadians buying houses with cash.
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There may be shortage of housing for a while but prices are softening due to economic factors.
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7% mortgage rates will do that.
Only people who have to move would sell and move to a new place at those kinda mortgage rates. Anyone who can will stay put will I imagine, unless they are financially ignorant. Majority of people have locked in rates in the 4% neighborhood.-
Quote from Waduh Dong
7% mortgage rates will do that.Only people who have to move would sell and move to a new place at those kinda mortgage rates. Anyone who can will stay put will I imagine, unless they are financially ignorant. Majority of people have locked in rates in the 4% neighborhood.
The market equilibrates over 18-24 months.
7% mortgage seem high today, but they historically not high.
People who balk at taking on a new loan to upsize don’t do it forever.
Eventually they have kids, new better schools, whatever…. and they capitulate to the market, selling that little bungalo/ moving out of the apartment and getting a bigger/better-
Quote from dergon
7% mortgage seem high today, but they historically not high.
Housing affordability index at historic high. Something has to give.
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I don’t know.
Yeah, it’s expensive … I thnk we’ll enter a new phase where people just know they’ll be spending a greater percentage of their income on housing …. until the shortage gets settled out.
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You too? We have lots of Chinese nationals buying up big homes in our neighborhood as investments, all cash, sight unseen, beating out local families with children. Not being racist but nationalistic here – nothing against Chinese-Americans – I dont want half my neighborhood owned by foreigners or their proxies. I want people who work locally and enrich the economy and whose kids are playing at the local park.
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There are actually a lot if we’ll informed, insightful posts on this topic by people who know what the factors actually are that are contributing to this mess/market. Impressive…
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As for Chinese capital, would you rather own a slice of America that may go down by 50% in a decade or ANY part of China currently, given their fiscal, trade, demographic, social, and political challenges? These Chinese investors aren’t stupid.
Now whether or not they can actually GET OUT of China when the Titanic starts sinking and/or whether or not we don’t make laws to confiscate their property and capital, especially if there’s a war, then that’s a different story. Should be interesting.
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Agree. More than half worlds population is wanting to buy house in US.
Not the same with Radiology.-
Florida has just banned foreign real estate investment from several countries including China. The ban is for areas near critical infrastructures such as airports. That basically means a lot of major citiesIn Florida. Lets see what kind of affect it has on the housing market. I know in Miami at least, a big cause for prices going up is corrupt people fleeing South America buying up multiple properties to shelter their money.
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The big city empty office towers are ripe for conversion to condos for living.
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I used to think this too until a legit real estate developer told me that the people who say this are usually politicians or finance types who don’t know how hard and expensive this transition is to accomplish. He said it’s basically a gut job AND you have to re-plumb the whole building, which usually means redoing the foundation as well to adhere to building code standards.
Not easy
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I say convert the office towers into putt putt, golf simulators etc. no need to completely gut it. Just remove the cubicles, install your stuff on top and presto
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That would probably be a better use of that space!
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Quote from radrocker
Funny to see how you couldnt get a rad job in CA for the past 20 years, or you could but it sucked unless you knew someone etc. Now every group is hiring and this is true across the whole country. I remember talks of trying to lessen trainee spots during my residency which was only less than 10 years ago. I think it all comes down to the boomer bubble which exists in all facets of the economy.
Think the same will happen to housing? They talk about housing supply is too low blah blah and obviously prices and what you get for your money often blows. you think all of a sudden 10-20 years from now we’ll have a glut of houses and not enough people to fill em as these boomers eternally retire? Other areas of the economy this will happen?
Physicians may be converted to employee class in 20 years with associated middle class pay. 100-200k
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There is definitely boom and bust cycles in radiology. When I came out of med school, rads was exceptionally hard to match. Job market tanked during training and slots were filled with FMGs/Caribbean students who are the biggest beneficiaries now.
If you are going to compare to the housing market, it’s basically RE in the coastal markets compared to something in the midwest. I would bank cash now and expect the inevitable bust again.-
Quote from Gotham
There is definitely boom and bust cycles in radiology. When I came out of med school, rads was exceptionally hard to match. Job market tanked during training and slots were filled with FMGs/Caribbean students who are the biggest beneficiaries now.
If you are going to compare to the housing market, it’s basically RE in the coastal markets compared to something in the midwest. I would bank cash now and expect the inevitable bust again.
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This.
I’ve been around long enough to see multiple boom-bust cycles in housing, stocks, and the rad employment market. Finding analogies between them is the human mind doing what it does—trying to find patterns (which may not exist).
I can definitely tell you that there will be further boom-bust cycles in all of those areas.
If I knew when, I wouldn’t be doing rads.-
Same here.
From my experience, if radiology is now considered in a boom, if Med students go into it now, they will finish their training in bust territory.
Having said that, go into what you like, and worry about it later.
Dont time the market, can only be done in hindsight.-
Rads market definitely volatile.
I got lucky in that regard, started my job in 2007 and got a nice deal. 2008 we all know what happened…..
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