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Is TSLA a buy now?
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Lol lol
He owns a social media company
His sexual harassment of his masseuse and attempts to destroy her and subsequent man-child comments about everything under the sun basically shed some light on his true personality, which isnt pretty. A very wealthy man with a lot of power lashing out and abusing his underlings and plebs just isnt a good look. I never really liked him at all. He was somewhat amusing in the past and I followed a fake parody account of his that was suggested to me on Instagram for a brief bit. I will never buy a Tesla. Ive heard a lot of people complaining recently what a piece of crap car they are. He bought his successful companies from others-they were not his ideas. The only genius he is, is in using and manipulating people to his own ends. Just stop feeding the troll.-
Id like to see a solar panel that hold a long charge and can operate in very little sunlight. Maybe this will be developed at a U.S. university. Maybe this will be the new space race.
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All panels operate in very little sunlilght. They just can’t generate a lot with a little.
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Well, maybe they can work on some type of a better convertor/amplifier.
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Hahahaha. The Holy Grail of energy. Just convert/amplify it and bingo!
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Quote from Picasso01
Well, maybe they can work on some type of a better convertor/amplifier.
Cant. Amplifier requires external power. Conversion always loses energy.
Panels efficiency is always being improved but theres a limit. Plus the primary & initial limit is the total energy of the light hitting the panels.-
Well, there likely is some way.
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You may consider applying to his open masseuse position ; )
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I bought some shares in early may, position already up 60%. LOL.
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Quote from Waduh Dong
I bought some shares in early may, position already up 60%. LOL.
well, Bitcoin is up 85% in the past 6 months. Is Tesla stock price that much more predictable than Bitcoin?-
Who knows? Cryptocurrency has always seems volatile but I really know nothing about it. It definitely has value though. We have a family friend who left Russia because he didnt want to fight for Putin and left for another country. Hes a smart nice guy and hes found a job but because of his Russian citizenship he cant open any new bank or cards or anything so he gets paid and literally survives on crypto.
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TSLA. Hey, were less volatile than Bitcoin not exactly a strong marketing campaign.
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Also though- the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
You might think that Bitcoin has no inherent value and that TSLA is dramatically overvalued, but as long as enough investors want to buy it you cant use that as an investment strategy.
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[link=https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Ftechnology%2F2023%2F07%2F07%2Ftesla-fsd-autopilot-wheel-weights%2F]Tesla owners are using steering-wheel weights to drive hands-free[/link]
Steering wheel weights have become a popular commodity as Tesla has expanded its Full Self-Driving technology from around 12,000 vehicles to more than 400,000 over the past year. While the electric car manufacturer has adopted measures to discourage their use, the devices have been involved in at least two recent traffic incidents.
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Tesla requires drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel while using both of its driver-assistance systems Autopilot, which can maneuver the cars from highway on-ramp to off-ramp, and Full Self-Driving, which can navigate city and residential streets without the drivers physical input and the systems are designed to issue periodic reminders. By replicating the pressure of a drivers hands, the wheel weights silence the nagging.
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The steering wheel weights may not always be needed to drive hands free. A hacker last month revealed the existence of a mode buried deep in Teslas software that appears to turn off the reminders to pay attention.
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Only a few years behind schedule … but could be a big revenue generator
[link=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-cybertruck-ev-pickup-margins-878dfb1c] Tesla Stock Rises as First Cybertruck Arrives. Why Margins Are Key.
Tesla announced over the weekend that the first Cybertruck had been built at the company’s factory in Texas.[/link]
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That is literally one of the ugliest vehicles I have ever set my eyes on. If Frankenstein were a truck
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Quote from dergon
Only a few years behind schedule … but could be a big revenue generator
[link=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-cybertruck-ev-pickup-margins-878dfb1c] Tesla Stock Rises as First Cybertruck Arrives. Why Margins Are Key.
Tesla announced over the weekend that the first Cybertruck had been built at the company’s factory in Texas.[/link]
wonder how those batteries hold up in the heat bubble that is Texas and the Southwest.
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[link=https://www.makeuseof.com/gm-follows-ford-to-use-tesla-supercharger-network/]https://www.makeuseof.com…-supercharger-network/[/link]
GM Follows Ford to Use Tesla Supercharger Network-
General Motors announced that its future EVs will be equipped with the Tesla NACS (North American Charging Standard) connector, which will make them natively compatible with some 12,000 Tesla Supercharger stations in North America by early 2024. Initially, GM electric vehicles will access Teslas Supercharger network through the use of adapters, but all of its upcoming EVs built after 2025 will come with NACS.
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There’s a new dealership being built in Mentor OH for Genesis. Saw it has a couple nice looking charges up front. Not sure what standard they use at Hyundai. Looked fancy.
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Reuter’s Investigation –
[h3][link=https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-batteries-range/]Tesla’s secret team to suppress thousands of driving range Complaints[/link][/h3] About a decade ago, Tesla rigged the dashboard readouts in its electric cars to provide rosy projections of how far owners can drive before needing to recharge, a source told Reuters. The automaker last year became so inundated with driving-range complaints that it created a special team to cancel owners service appointments.Tesla employees had been instructed to thwart any customers complaining about poor driving range from bringing their vehicles in for service. Last summer, the company quietly created a Diversion Team in Las Vegas to cancel as many range-related appointments as possible.
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In most cases, the complaining customers cars likely did not need repair, according to the people familiar with the matter. Rather, Tesla created the groundswell of complaints another way by hyping the range of its futuristic electric vehicles, or EVs, raising consumer expectations beyond what the cars can deliver. Teslas often fail to achieve their advertised range estimates and the projections provided by the cars own equipment, according to Reuters interviews with three automotive experts who have tested or studied the companys vehicles.
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Tesla years ago began exaggerating its vehicles potential driving distance by rigging their range-estimating software. The company decided about a decade ago, for marketing purposes, to write algorithms for its range meter that would show drivers rosy projections for the distance it could travel on a full battery, according to a person familiar with an early design of the software for its in-dash readouts.
Then, when the battery fell below 50% of its maximum charge, the algorithm would show drivers more realistic projections for their remaining driving range, this person said. To prevent drivers from getting stranded as their predicted range started declining more quickly, Teslas were designed with a safety buffer, allowing about 15 miles (24 km) of additional range even after the dash readout showed an empty battery, the source said.[/QUOTE]
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That fits with my experience driving one.
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Fraud. I heard the cameras still spy on people even when the car is off and they can be accessed by Tesla staff. Who wants unknown individuals creeping on them? Especially their children?
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[link=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-tesla-survey/elon-musk-brand-analysis/][b]Tesla Owners Have Soured on Elon Musk, But Still Love Their Model 3s[/b]
[/link]
Bloomberg survey of Tesla owners finds that they love the cars but have soured on Elon Musk. Disapproval of Elon Musk is the leading reason for Tesla owners to abandon the brand
For the most part, owners say their disapproval of Musk wont affect their buying decisions. The [link=https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/electric-vehicles/rating/tesla-model-y/]Model Y[/link] sport utility vehicle is on pace to become the best-selling vehicle in the world, of any type, this year.
But a notable minority say theyre done with Tesla, potentially costing the company not only repeat business, but also some of the word-of-mouth goodwill that helped establish the brand. Model 3 owners who sold off their Teslas in the last few years cited disapproval of the CEO as the most frequent motivation.[h2]Top reasons given by Model 3 owners who sold their cars and replaced them with another brand[/h2]
Disapproval of Elon Musk 21.5%
Concerns about quality or service 18.7%
Unhappy with Teslas brand perception 17.8%
Cost was too high 13.1%
Other 11.2%
[/QUOTE]
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Tesla AutoPilot needs a lot of work.
[link=https://www.wsj.com/video/series/in-depth-features/why-the-ftcs-lina-khan-is-taking-on-big-tech-even-if-it-means-losing/D340813E-FD24-4A69-98A6-4EDEFF32F1C7][link=https://www.wsj.com/video/series/in-depth-features/watch-exclusive-tesla-footage-suggests-reasons-for-autopilot-crashes/2FBEE1CA-56E1-4ACC-92B6-DED638B531CE]https://www.wsj.com/video…4ACC-92B6-DED638B531CE[/link][/link] -
Tesla Autopilot needs work.
[link=https://m.wsj.net/video/20230809/2fbee1ca-56e1-4acc-92b6-ded638b531ce/2/hls/manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8#t=0]manifest-hd-wifi.m3u8[/link]
[link=https://www.wsj.com/video/series/in-depth-features/watch-exclusive-tesla-footage-suggests-reasons-for-autopilot-crashes/2FBEE1CA-56E1-4ACC-92B6-DED638B531CE]https://www.wsj.com/video…4ACC-92B6-DED638B531CE[/link]
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Tesla reportedly facing DOJ, SEC probes:
Tesla is facing two new federal probes over possible misuse of company resources, and over the companys EV battery range claims, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
Manhattan federal prosecutors and the SEC are both reportedly seeking info about how much Tesla has spent on a secretive plan to build a spacious glass house near Austin, Texas, thought to be meant for Musks personal use.
The U.S. Attorneys Office for the Southern District of New York is also said to be looking into whether Tesla has deliberately misrepresented the battery range of its electric cars.
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Add NHTSA to the list …
[link=https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/30/tesla-ordered-by-nhtsa-to-provide-data-on-elon-mode-for-autopilot.html]Tesla ordered by auto regulators to provide data on ‘Elon mode’ Autopilot configuration[/link]
[ul][*]Tesla received a special order from the National Highway Transportation Administration in late July requiring it to provide extensive data about its Autopilot and driver monitoring systems to the agency.[*]The auto safety regulators want to know more about a configuration for Tesla vehicles known as Elon mode that eliminates a so-called nag that normally prompts owners to keep their hands on the steering wheel.[*]Among other things, the agency asked for data about how many Tesla drivers ever had this configuration enabled. [/ul]-
TSLA has the world’s biggest supercomputer now, working on self-driving.
If they succeed – multi-trillion dollar opportunity. If they don’t still have EV, battery and solar businesses.
This is what is called asymmetric upside in an investment. I am buying on any weakness.-
I can’t blame you. Most don’t know here, like many things they are completely oblivious to, is that EM is closely linked with the higher ups in the world, and the US government (among others). It’s funny how little people are aware of; still others don’t want to believe things that are actually quite obvious if you think about them and do a modicum of research.
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Quote from Dream Run
I can’t blame you. Most don’t know here, like many things they are completely oblivious to, is that EM is closely linked with the higher ups in the world, and the US government (among others). It’s funny how little people are aware of; still others don’t want to believe things that are actually quite obvious if you think about them and do a modicum of research.
yes, see starlink and ukraine and us govt
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Usually I am a proponent of index Etfs/funds and best in breed funds. But, if some young rad just made partner and got vested (and saves his/her salary), put a good portion in TSLA. In 15-20 years, the stock will no doubt provide a X5 to X10 multiple of what it is today.
Just snicker at leftist institutionalists who dont like Elon Musk and take any opportunity to fire ineffective pot-shots at him–all the while accumulating real “FU” money and retire early. -
Quote from Waduh Dong
TSLA has the world’s biggest supercomputer now, working on self-driving.If they succeed – multi-trillion dollar opportunity. If they don’t still have EV, battery and solar businesses.
This is what is called asymmetric upside in an investment. I am buying on any weakness.
Meh. Maybe.
TSLA might outperform the tech sector over the next decade. They might become the dominant player in autonomous vehicles based on Dojo.
Or it might be a bunch of hype that doesn’t pan out.
I’m not smart enough to guess the future on individual stocks. If there is “asymmetrical upside” then the stock price should be rocketing as we speak.Quote from MRImadman
Usually I am a proponent of index Etfs/funds and best in breed funds. But, if some young rad just made partner and got vested (and saves his/her salary), put a good portion in TSLA. In 15-20 years, the stock will no doubt provide a X5 to X10 multiple of what it is today.
Just snicker at leftist institutionalists who dont like Elon Musk and take any opportunity to fire ineffective pot-shots at him–all the while accumulating real “FU” money and retire early.
How’s that bitcoin $150k per coin call coming?
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Quote from dergon
Quote from Waduh Dong
TSLA has the world’s biggest supercomputer now, working on self-driving.
If they succeed – multi-trillion dollar opportunity. If they don’t still have EV, battery and solar businesses.
This is what is called asymmetric upside in an investment. I am buying on any weakness.
Meh. Maybe.
TSLA might outperform the tech sector over the next decade. They might become the dominant player in autonomous vehicles based on Dojo.
Or it might be a bunch of hype that doesn’t pan out.
I’m not smart enough to guess the future on individual stocks. If there is “asymmetrical upside” then the stock price should be rocketing as we speak.
Quote from MRImadman
Usually I am a proponent of index Etfs/funds and best in breed funds. But, if some young rad just made partner and got vested (and saves his/her salary), put a good portion in TSLA. In 15-20 years, the stock will no doubt provide a X5 to X10 multiple of what it is today.
Just snicker at leftist institutionalists who dont like Elon Musk and take any opportunity to fire ineffective pot-shots at him–all the while accumulating real “FU” money and retire early.
How’s that bitcoin $150k per coin call coming?
Correction- I’m smart enough not to guess on the future of individual stocks.
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These days, a lot of people who hit homeruns in this market on individual stocks just got lucky. It (luck) counts, but it’s hard to repeat.
Plus, as long as indexing is around and distorts the market as much as it does/has, valuations are really just silly and essentially meaningless with the top stocks. Since most all of the capital from Vanguard, BlackRock etc. and workers’ 401Ks just mindlessly flows into the FANG stocks and Teslas of the world (or any of the top market weighted stocks – those with the highest market capitalizations), then, of course, these stocks will always outperform. How could they not? They have an over-abundance of capital to spend in order to maintain their competitive advantage (Think Google – they just ‘buy up’ all of the competition), while at the same time, their valuations continue to be erroneously HIGH (which allows their C-suite to sell stock to make even more money, or worse, use their stock as collateral from a bank to further invest in Google, other FANGs, or (even worse) index funds, thus continually driving the stock price & markets even higher).
I am just wondering what happens when either the Boomers start withdrawing capital en masse (ie. become net stock sellers) or the market has a huge correction whereby everyone starts a cascade of selling that starts a feedback loop that can’t be contained.
Despite my sarcasm and harsh criticism of others on this board regarding investing (This is true – admittedly), I actually don’t want to see other MDs lose all of their money in the market. If this all plays out the way those who really understand these distortions say that it will, it’s going to be ugly. But, hey, what do I know – I am just some jerk on on a lame radiology message board. Best of ‘luck’ to you all.
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Quote from DOCDAWG
These days, a lot of people who hit homeruns in this market on individual stocks just got lucky. It (luck) counts, but it’s hard to repeat.
Plus, as long as indexing is around and distorts the market as much as it does/has, valuations are really just silly and essentially meaningless with the top stocks.
…
I generally agree with this, and the Michael Burry sentiment that this has resulted in a bubble of sorts in certain indices (e.g. S&P 500).
But:
(1) The market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
(2) Don’t fight the Fed.
So, not sure exactly how to handle the situation that “The Lords of Easy Money” have created. I do think it has black swan potential, but are you just supposed to sit in short-term T-bills until that happens?-
There is no index fund bubble.
Cap weighting makes complete and total sense in you take a deep dive into learning about investing.
I recommend tuning out CNBC and AM.com.
Here is Waduh Dong’s list to how to get “rich”
1. Become a Radiologist
2. Save a decent amount earlier the better and put into index ETF products at a discount broker.
3. Don’t buy a bunch of insurance products.
4. Don’t try to be a real estate investor.
5. Buy a nice house, but least expensive house in a great location and neighborhood.
6. If you like cars, buy them and enjoy them but pay cash. Same with watches.
7. Unless you are locked into a low fixed mortgage, pay off debt.
8. Don’t get divorced. Keep a side piece on payroll if needed but stay married.
9. Realize we are all going to die one day.
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Honestly, the most difficult thing is just not selling your assets when the market crashes. Literally, that’s all you need to do as a Rad investor to end up rich by pretty much anyones standard worldwide.
So hold enough cash liquid so you don’t ever feel the pressure to sell your investments and just accept the market return and you will be rich.
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The dirty little secret in finance is that index returns like the s&P 500 and NASDAQ are far superior to the vast majority of venture capital, private equity, hedge fund returns, and real estate deals over the life of the investor and they are easily accessible and near zero cost.
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Agree BHE.
I’m pretty sure there’s an index fund bubble, but like BHE says, it can’t last for a lot longer than I can personally afford to short it.
And what will trigger selling? Who knows.
The pension systems might also fail, but the government will have to bail them out and will probably go after the ‘richest’ Americans to do so (this includes all of us, for better or worse).
On the back side of this debacle, years into the future, it might actually not suck to be a young American again. With these deflationary forces in play, families might actually be able to afford 1,2, or even 3 children and a nice home (when all the Boomers die off and leave their money behind . I don’t wish for this but it is what it is).
These young people are getting screwed.
And it’s not fair. But, I’m a capitalist at heart so they have to weather the storm and just get on the other side of it.
It can’t rain all the time after all.
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“Pretty sure” – what does that mean. What is the basis for your argument than there is a bubble in index funds?
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[link]https://youtu.be/6szLEXDDwEU?si=h1hK0XsKRr1WKHWj[/link]
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[link]https://youtu.be/czXIKBgVbeA?si=Vvt-Ul0CqRUW3EZm[/link]
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Watch both of these interviews.
The first one is highly technical.
The second is more conceptual.
This guy is one of the smartest guys I’ve ever heard in finance, and either he’s right, or there’s something else going on with the markets that everyone is oblivious to. Once he explains that the markets were always based on money flows, it all made sense.
I just could never understand why the stock market had diverged so much from real business valuations since 1999 until he explains why. Indexing just ate the investing world.
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For every Mike Green/ Mike Burry talking about a bubble in index funds there are at least an equal number of people saying they’re full of sh*t.
Could Burry be right *again*? Sure. But a lot of these who were bigtime right contrarians once spend the rest of their lives trying to pull off the same trick again (and talking their book while they do so)
I don’t know who’s right. And as Warren Buffett counseled, “Don’t listen to the financial media. And if you do, for God’s sake don’t trade based on that.”
So in summary, I don’t see anything convincing enough to make me change my asset allocation based on a youtube clip or two.
TSLA to the moon? BTC to $1million? An S&P500 crash that looks like the Great Depression?! Sure … could happen.
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Green is super smart but fails on spectacular levels on other issues, very similar to Nassim Taleb. I think I know why, and it’s sorta sad (I actually think Green is less devious at this point, btw).
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I know enough to know that I don’t understand stock pricing, other than looking at what has happened in the past and saying “hopefully something similar will happen in the future”. I’m not sure anyone, other than possibly Jim Simons and crew at Renaissance Technologies, does. [b]I’m quite certain all the talking heads have nothing useful to offer.[/b]
So, I keep going with my Boglehead-ish approach, plus a couple of local investments where I have some actual input, and can understand the details. Whether or not an investment makes sense is much more easily understood in that situation.
But I do find some of the arguments that certain stock prices are bubbly, including *certain* indices (not all), pretty compelling. And the proposed psychology behind it makes sense to me. Not that I’m doing anything about it other than being somewhat concerned.
For example, the S&P P/E ratio was ~13 from 1900 to 1980, and ~22 since. Now, perma-bears have been saying it would regress to 13 forever, and have missed out on decades of gains. Academic economists come up with all sorts of pseudo-explanations for the change, with speculation about whether or not it will continue. Nothing I’ve read strikes me as any more convincing than simple psychology: The S&P has done very well over most living investors’ lifetimes. We believe it will continue to do well, and so we continue to put our money there. I do believe that’s a significant component of S&P pricing. -
Maybe, but I believe it is due to the Federal Reserve intervention in the markets. They control the money printer.
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Look, all you guys are making valid points.
And, sure, you have to at least question why would Mike Green tell us all his ‘secrets’ about the markets, if his firm is hedging against indexing and stands to make ALL of the money if it all goes bust.
These are great questions – I get it. But, maybe this guy just has enough integrity to warn other investors (I know that this is asking A LOT of most sleazy Wall Street types) about what he has discovered. I am probably in the minority, but I believe him.
I’ve also wondered why markets are not following true valuations based on discounted cash flows and future earnings. It’s strange, and his theory does explain a lot of what might be going on.
If he’s wrong, then we will both look like fools.
But, if he’s right, then it’s financial Armageddon. I think that the feds will try to avert a catastrophe, but they may not be able to, if his math turns out to be correct. I am hedging my bets heavily on his theory, but I might be wrong, for sure.
I completely understand if everyone disagrees, though.
Most of the time the ‘herd’ is correct. But, not every time.
I go back to this one question: If everyone is doing something (passive investing) why should it pay you an excellent return (ie. Why should it give you alpha)? I just don’t buy it.
Good luck.
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Who said that passive investing would give you an “excellent” return? It should give you an average return, that’s the whole point. Of course, years and decades of an “average” return actually turns out to be pretty spectacular relative to everyone else because the majority of people don’t want to accept an “average” return and don’t have the temperament to achieve one. So it shouldn’t give you any alpha.
What don’t you buy about that? -
Quote from boggles
Who said that passive investing would give you an “excellent” return? It should give you an average return, that’s the whole point. Of course, years and decades of an “average” return actually turns out to be pretty spectacular relative to everyone else because the majority of people don’t want to accept an “average” return and don’t have the temperament to achieve one. So it shouldn’t give you any alpha.
What don’t you buy about that?
Real estate is a better investment but has a lot of hassle.
For someone that has radiologist level income, saving a reasonable amount of their income and passively investing it is probably the best thing to do.
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dergon – you aren’t buying individual stocks cause you have that custom home to pay for!
Of course, I agree, the idiosyncratic risk of holding individual stocks is real. TSLA could amount be the next Cisco systems, a decent company but hyped/priced way above real value.
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This guy is a clown.-
So, you’re saying that YOU know more about market structure than him?
Good luck with that.
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But, your dismissal of his work is also telling.
Because if you don’t understand what he’s actually saying (technically) and at least consider that he might be correct, then you certainly aren’t as smart as I thought you were and probably should put your own money in cash. But, I’m sure you’ll just keep on plowing funds into your target date fund, etc.
Whatever happens, you deserve it.
No hard feelings.
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I never said I was smart.
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It doesn’t account for extreme ‘left tail’ events, which can wipe you out totally. That’s one of the biggest problems. There is a recency bias in any market – since things have done well in the past, they will continue…This is simply not historically true.
Things rise and things fall – usually in epic fashions. And, those who are left either exit the markets completely or are so beaten up by the process that it changes their strategy entirely.
This is probably happening in sectors of commercial real estate in large cities as we type this by the way. But, for now, stocks seem to be chugging along.
Time will tell.
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Quote from DOCDAWG
It doesn’t account for extreme ‘left tail’ events, which can wipe you out totally. That’s one of the biggest problems. There is a recency bias in any market – since things have done well in the past, they will continue…This is simply not historically true.
Things rise and things fall – usually in epic fashions. And, those who are left either exit the markets completely or are so beaten up by the process that it changes their strategy entirely.
This is probably happening in sectors of commercial real estate in large cities as we type this by the way. But, for now, stocks seem to be chugging along.
Time will tell.
Most retirement plans are in the form of stocks. If the stock market crashes permanently, most Americans will lose their retirement and the government has to step in and pay them. So it makes more sense for the government to protect stock market in the first place.
I strongly believe that the fed is overprotective of the stock market in mid and long term. Short term crashes happen all the time but the government steps in when they happen and correct them within 1-2 years.
Now if you think that the whole US economy will collapse, that is a different story. In that scenario, no investment will be immune.
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