[btomba_77]

UVA Center for Politics current map:
 
[link=http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/][link=http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/]http://centerforpolitics….ystalball/2020-senate/[/link][/link]
 
[img]http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2020_07_09_Senate_Ratings_600.png[/img]
 
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NdvAi60uPh_3x7OMA1S_ZtFCMBB7y8X_/view]https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NdvAi60uPh_3x7OMA1S_ZtFCMBB7y8X_/view[/link]
 
Kelly +4 in AZ

[btomba_77]

[b]Senate GOP Confronts Fundraising Emergency[/b][/h1]  
[link=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/13/senate-gop-fundraising-emergency-358864]Politico[/link]: Last month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee prepared a slideshow for Senate chiefs of staff full of bleak numbers about the partys failure to compete with Democrats on digital fundraising. For anyone not getting the message, the final slide hammered home the possible end result: a freight train bearing down on a man standing on the tracks.
 
The slideshow painted a grim picture of the GOPs long-running problem. Republican senators and challengers lagged behind Democrats by a collective $30 million in the first quarter of 2020, a deficit stemming from Democrats superior online fundraising machine. Since then, Democrats fundraising pace accelerated further, with the partys challengers announcing huge second-quarter hauls last week, largely driven by online donors giving through ActBlue, the partys preferred fundraising platform.

 

[clickpenguin_460]

I’ll say 51 (R) – 49 (D) is most likely at this point, then 50-50.  Other outcomes would require either a big Trump or Biden wave.

[btomba_77]

I’m at about 50-50 with whoever controls the WH controls the Senate.
 

[btomba_77]

Bullock Leads (Within MoE) In Montana Senate Race[/h1]  
 
A new [link=https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/bullock-most-popular-montana-politician-narrowly-leads-daines/]Public Policy Polling survey[/link] in Montana finds Steve Bullock (D) leading Sen. Steve Daines (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.
Bullock is the most popular politician in the state with a 50% to 38% approval.
 
In the presidential race, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden, 51% to 42%.

 

[satyanar]

Quote from dergon

Bullock Leads (Within MoE) In Montana Senate Race  

A new [link=https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/bullock-most-popular-montana-politician-narrowly-leads-daines/]Public Policy Polling survey[/link] in Montana finds Steve Bullock (D) leading Sen. Steve Daines (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.
Bullock is the most popular politician in the state with a 50% to 38% approval.

In the presidential race, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden, 51% to 42%.

 
States like WY and MT have been affected significantly by the NRA in recent elections. I wonder if anything has changed?

[btomba_77]

Bullock is pretty moderate on guns. Hes a gun owner and a hunter…. likes an assault weapon ban and *voluntary* buy backs but he is to the right of most Dems

[btomba_77]

[b]Mark Kelly Maintains Lead In Arizona[/b][/h1] [b]
[/b]
 
A new [link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/507180-kelly-leads-mcsally-by-9-points-in-arizona]OH Predictive Insights poll[/link] in Arizona finds Mark Kelly (D) with a 9-point lead over Sen. Martha McSally (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 52% to 43%.

 

[clickpenguin_460]

Kelly will likely win even if Trump squeaks a win in AZ.  He’s likeable, moderate, has a good story via his wife, and McSally has already lost before/done nothing to help herself.

[Unknown Member]

Blue tsunami

Independents are running from trump. They are sick of the daily drama and just want to return to a sense of normalcy

This is going to be wipeout

[btomba_77]

[h3][link=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-16/a-democratic-senate-is-looking-more-likely?srnd=premium]A Democratic Senate Is Looking More Likely[/link][/h3]

{t}he longer this election cycle goes on, the better the prospects for Democrats have looked. Right now, they not only have raised more money, but actually have an apparent polling lead in all five of those toss-up races, according to the RealClearPolitics averages, although several states ([link=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mt/montana_senate_daines_vs_bullock-7063.html]especially Montana[/link]) have had limited surveys so far.
 
The Cook Report lists five more contests, including Alabama, as leaning Republican. If Trump really is down by [link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/]nine points or so nationally[/link], then its possible Democrats could pick off one or two of them. And if Trump loses badly, the only lean-Democrat seat, Michigan, would be pretty safe; in fact, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters appears to have a [link=https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/mi/michigan_senate_james_vs_peters-6964.html]solid lead[/link] there for now. 
 
The real blowout possibilities start to kick in if Trump slips a little more. Then it starts to look possible for Democrats to win four of the five lean-Republican seats, or even one or two of the four likely Republican contests. In that case, the possibility of an aggressive legislative agenda starts to look much more likely. 
 
Ill emphasize again: Just as its possible that the presidential race remains where it is or gets somewhat better for Democrats, its also possible for Trump to rally and win  or, even if he comes up short, for Republicans to do well enough to win most of these seats. But the fact remains that Republicans are extremely vulnerable in this cycle; they are, after all, defending 23 seats, including several in closely contested or marginally Democratic states, while Democrats are defending only 12. So the map is tilted toward Democratic gains. And if its also tilted by a poor showing from the national Republican ticket, then things could get pretty ugly for Trumps party.
[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

Its a House story but close enough….

20 House Races Move Towards the Democrats-

Cook Political Report: President Trumps abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a check and balance message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats moving too far left under a potential Biden administration.

This week, were shifting our ratings in 20 races, all reflecting movement towards Democrats.

[Unknown Member]

Tsunami

[kaldridgewv2211]

Still need to keep on the gas. McConnell needs to go.

[btomba_77]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

Still need to keep on the gas. McConnell needs to go.

 
A new [link=https://amymcgrath.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Polling-Memo-07-16.pdf]Garin-Hart-Yang (D) poll[/link] in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) leading challenger Amy McGrath (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 41%.

[btomba_77]

Its come to this for Republicans straining to defend their Senate majority in Novembers elections: Theyre air-dropping millions of dollars into races in Alabama, Kentucky and other red states where Donald Trump coasted during his 2016 presidential election triumph, the [link=https://apnews.com/269c5a18f098ec93e8a63fc460a78e0d]AP[/link] reports.

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

Still need to keep on the gas. McConnell needs to go.

 
Did you say the same thing about Harry Reid?  Same tactics used by both and Mr. Reid was the one to first blow up the filibuster enabling McConnell to get all of the judges through.  Don’t act all sanctimonious like McConnell is some evil man.  Once Dems have control again, they will do the same.

[kaldridgewv2211]

Trying to recall when Harry blocked a SCOTUS appointment.

McConnel is a garbage human being. As a senator and his personal life.

[Unknown Member]

The sooner Pinochet comes, the better.

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

Trying to recall when Harry blocked a SCOTUS appointment.

McConnel is a garbage human being. As a senator and his personal life.

 
 
So you’re just an unabashed partisan then.  That’s fine. 
 
I’m not saying what McConnell did was right (it wasn’t), but Reid/Dems would have done the same thing as illustrated by Biden’s speech in 1992 saying as much.  Reid and McConnell are very similar in the way they conduct Senate business and Reid removed the judicial filibuster, so be mad at him.

[heenadevk1119_462]

Reality, truth and logic don’t matter to them, Cubsfan

[clickpenguin_460]

You might be right.  I just want to hope that isn’t so.  Not sure why I keep trying.

[btomba_77]

Cook ratings changes for Senate races:

Arizona: Toss up to lean Dem
Georgia (class 2 seat): Lean GOP to toss up
Iowa: Lean GOP to toss up
Minnesota: Likely Dem to solid Dem
New Mexico: Likely Dem to solid Dem

[heenadevk1119_462]

Quote from Cubsfan10

You might be right.  I just want to hope that isn’t so.  Not sure why I keep trying.

 
They are the same types that when in the gulags still can’t admit that the structure and system they supported had used them and thrown them away — even when starving and in cue for execution.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.gravismarketing.com/michigan-poll-results/]https://www.gravismarketing.com/michigan-poll-results/[/link]

Gravis MI: 

Peters +10 49/39

PPP:  MI, ME, AZ

[link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Aj_jOKH2jEB3fi3JdW0snX5rVIhN1nna/view]https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Aj_jOKH2jEB3fi3JdW0snX5rVIhN1nna/view
[/link][link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gfnY_jB5oYBFq7u9tPWolKsUzrpd4XAj/view]https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gfnY_jB5oYBFq7u9tPWolKsUzrpd4XAj/view
[/link][link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bovYI6yeunK2kGDEqKrz0UWBi2AlRNZz/view]https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bovYI6yeunK2kGDEqKrz0UWBi2AlRNZz/view

[/link]Gideon +5 over Collins 47/42
Kelly +9   over McSally   51/42
Cuningham +8 over Tillis  48/40

[fahma066_701]

Dergon. How do you have this much time to post?  Do you work?

[btomba_77]

I work full time.  I have ADHD so I can’t attend to reading for more than 30-40 minutes at a blast.   So I pepper that with conversation and watching video links etc when staffing with residents/ fellows and with surfing and posting when working alone.    I keep a laptop open at my PACS station. 
 
It’s a strategy I have developed over years that makes me *more* clinically productive because I don’t get up and take a walk or go ot the cafeteria etc, which tends to become an even [i]longer[/i] break.
 
I would even go so far as to say that there is likely a very close correlation between my daily AM post count and the total number of studies read on any given day. … because that mean I am at the PACS station, not locked in meetings or doing biopsies or lollygagging trying to run a quick errand outside of the department or something. 
 
 
 

[btomba_77]

538 podcast discussed lay of the land for the Senate.
 
consensus agreement that the “median expected outcome” is 50-51 democrats.  … a wave could bring 55.
 
 
 

[btomba_77]

[b]GOP Senators Suddenly Want to Debate [/b][/h1]  
 
In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has challenged her Democratic competitor to six debates In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) pressed his Democratic opponent to accept five debates And in Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R) declared that she wants to debate her opponent 16 times starting immediate, the [link=https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/as-pandemic-limits-scrutiny-gop-fears-lesser-known-democratic-candidates-will-steamroll-to-senate-majority/2020/07/24/e7087534-cde3-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_pkcapitol-535pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans]Washington Post[/link] reports.
 
Republicans acknowledge that this upends the usual debate about debates, in which an incumbent rarely wants to give the challenger the same platform. Incumbent senators are pleading with their lesser-known rivals to join them on debate stages, or Zoom, trying to elevate the profile of these Democrats.
But they view this as a matter of necessity in a campaign in which Republicans are running into the head winds of President Trumps sagging poll numbers amid his stumbling response to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

[btomba_77]

[link=http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/07/26/rel1_az.pdf]http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/07/26/rel1_az.pdf
[/link][link=http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/07/26/rel1_fl.pdf]http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/07/26/rel1_fl.pdf
[/link][link=http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/07/26/rel1_mi.pdf]http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/07/26/rel1_mi.pdf[/link][link=https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/26/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-florida-arizona-michigan/index.html]

[/link]SSRS/CNN Battleground:

Mark Kelly +7 in the AZ Senate Race.
Gary Peters +16 in MI Senate race

[btomba_77]

[link=http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NBC-News_Marist-Poll-AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202007231249.pdf]Marist College AZ Poll:

[/link]Kelly +12    53/41

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]The Senate State of Play, Republican Perspective[/b][/h1]  
 
NRSC executive chair Kevin McLaughlin [link=https://www.nrsc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/100-Days-Memo-7.25.20-FINAL.pdf]sent a memo[/link] on the state of play for U.S. Senate races: There are currently eight Senate races that are within the margin of error. Candidly, considering all that is going on, that is nothing short of a miracle for Republicans.
 

[btomba_77]

[b]Cook Political report: Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate[/b]

With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our [link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-july-2020-electoral-college-ratings]Electoral College ratings[/link] and Democrats could end up [link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-20-races-shift-towards-democrats]expanding their House majority[/link]. That leaves the Senate as Republicans’ firewallthe final barrier to unified control for Democrats in 2021. While GOP incumbents are trying to run races independent of the president, if Trumps polling numbers remain this dismal come November, thats an unenviable and likely unsuccessful strategy, according to several top party strategists. As of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.

Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November, remarked one GOP pollster. Its grim. Theres just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldnt have considered at risk.

[link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/almost-100-days-out-democrats-are-favored-take-back-senate]https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…ke-back-senate[/link]
__________________

[btomba_77]

[h1]Perdue Makes Jewish Opponents Nose Bigger In Ad[/h1]  
Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) ran a [link=https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=political_and_issue_ads&country=US&impression_search_field=has_impressions_lifetime&id=3165502920193801&view_all_page_id=159597424207730]Facebook ad[/link] targeting his Jewish election opponent, Jon Ossoff (D), that appeared to have been altered to make Ossoffs nose bigger, the [link=https://forward.com/news/national/451581/jon-ossoff-jewish-nose-david-perdue-antisemitic/]Forward[/link] reports.

____________

[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/509295-gop-senator-deletes-ad-that-showed-jewish-opponent-with-larger-nose]GOP senator deletes ad that showed Jewish opponent with larger nose[/link]
The Hill 
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://morningconsult.com/2020/07/28/senate-presidential-polling-political-intelligence/]https://morningconsult.com/2020/07/28/senate-presidential-polling-political-intelligence/

[/link][b]Morning Consult Senate:[/b]

[img]https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/27181121/200727_Presidential-Senate-State-Polling_FULLWIDTH2.png[/img]

[img]https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/27181145/200727_Trump-Republican-Senate-Polling_FULLWIDTH2.png[/img]

[img]https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/27181133/200727_Senate-Polling-By-Party_FULLWIDTH2.png[/img]

Less than 100 days from Election Day, Democrats are leading in key races that will help decide who controls the Senate in January, with few candidates on either side of the aisle running ahead of the ticket-topping presidential contest.
Thats the main finding from new Morning Consult [link=https://morningconsult.com/product/political-intelligence/]Political Intelligence[/link] polling of likely voters in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina conducted July 17-26. Democratic candidates lead in all of those races save for Georgia, where Republican Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff within the margin of error, with the incumbent running alongside President Donald Trump and his challenger polling behind former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. (See [link=http://morningconsult.com/form/july-presidential-battleground-state-polling]here[/link] for a broader look at how the candidates are performing in a dozen battleground states.)

…
With the exception of Georgia, Senate Democratic candidates in the five states tested have an advantage with likely independent voters, including a 20-point lead for Cunningham in North Carolina and a 25-point lead for Kelly in Arizona. 
In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) leads Sen. Cory Gardner (R) by 13 points among the swing voting bloc, part of an overall 6-point lead over the incumbent, 48 percent to 42 percent. Unlike Tillis, James and McSally, Gardner who is running ahead of the president statewide is not lacking significant support from Republican likely voters. His vote share among the base matches Hickenloopers with Democrats (87 percent) and is roughly the same as Trumps (85 percent) with Republicans. 
 
In Georgia, Perdue leads Ossoff, 45 percent to 42 percent, backed with support from 88 percent of likely Republican voters (compared to Trumps 91 percent), and a 9-point advantage over Ossoff with the states likely independent voters (40 percent to 31 percent).
[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Gideon Leads Collins In Maine[/b][/h1]  
 
A new [link=https://www.colby.edu/government/wp-content/uploads/sites/66/2020/07/Wave2Results_Corrected.pdf]Colby College/Social Sphere poll[/link] in Maine finds Sara Gideon (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 39%.
In the presidential race, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump statewide, 50% to 38%.
 
Biden leads 55% to 35% in the states first congressional district and 45% to 41% in the second congressional district.
 

[btomba_77]

Lincoln Project

[b]Trump Stooge[/b]

[link=https://youtu.be/lSGXknNaYqU]https://youtu.be/lSGXknNaYqU[/link]

[btomba_77]

[link=https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603]https://twitter.com/TeamCollins207/status/1288115274105753603[/link]
 
Susan Collins releases new “attack” ad against Gideon.
 
It reads like an pro-Gideon spot.  She needs to fire her ad team.
 

Among other things, the ad shows that Gideon has named several issues a top priority, including protecting the health and safety of our families and communities, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, and building an economy that works for everyone.

 
Given that the ad highlighted Gideon taking very popular positions, many Twitter users joked that it almost seemed as though Collinss team was secretly making an ad for her opponent.

 

[kayla.meyer_144]

Wow.

[btomba_77]

[b]U.S. Senate N.C. [/b]
 [link=https://cpapolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NC_Poll_Results_2020-07-29.pdf]Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)[/link]    Cunningham 43% Tillis 43%       EVEN

[b]U.S. Senate  Mich. [/b]
 [link=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-senate-and-governor-voting-intention-19-to-24-july/]Redfield & Wilton Strategies[/link] 811 LV      Peters 52% 35% James                Peters +17

[b]U.S. Senate Ariz. [/b]
 [link=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-senate-and-governor-voting-intention-19-to-24-july/]Redfield & Wilton Strategies[/link] 858 LV      Kelly 53% 35% McSally                 Kelly +18

[b]U.S. Senate N.C. [/b]
 [link=https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-senate-and-governor-voting-intention-19-to-24-july/]Redfield & Wilton Strategies[/link] 919 LV     Cunningham 47% 36% Tillis           Cunningham +11

[btomba_77]

[b]U.S. Senate Minn. [/b]

[link=https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MinnesotaResults2.pdf]Public Policy Polling*
[/link] 1,218 V

Smith 48% 39% Lewis

Smith +9

[btomba_77]

[b]U.S. Senate GA[/b]

[link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oa8SqHJAq6hBII_8LjgY0PjPwAgBWzpO/view]YouGov[/link] 1,101LV   

 Ossoff43%/ 45%Perdue
[b]Perdue+2

___________[/b]

[b]U.S. Senate N.C.[/b]

[link=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jDu_IMRdUTbdmA-VfpP-neMT3-lYw969/view]YouGov[/link] 1,121LV

Cunningham48%/ 39%Tillis

[b]Cunningham+9[/b]

[btomba_77]

Susan Collins campaign has been running ads featuring supposed “regular Mainers” but they turn out to be state GOP officials and former Collins staffers.

[link=https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1289532942046449665?s=20]https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1289532942046449665?s=20[/link]

[kaldridgewv2211]

they also ran an ad that seemed like it was more of a promotion of her competitor than anything.  It was like of accusing her competitor (Gideon?) of having too many good priorities.
 
 

[btomba_77]

Quote from DICOM_Dan

they also ran an ad that seemed like it was more of a promotion of her competitor than anything.  It was like of accusing her competitor (Gideon?) of having too many good priorities.

 
Yeah….. the Collins campaign needs to fire whoever made that ad

[btomba_77]

[link=https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/montana-2020-trump-holds-strong-as-biden-coalesces-support]https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/montana-2020-trump-holds-strong-as-biden-coalesces-support

[/link]
[b][color=”#222222″]Emerson College   Montana[/color][/b]

[color=”#222222″]Trump +9 over Biden[/color]

[color=”#222222″]Daines +6 over Bullock[/color]

[btomba_77]

[link=https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/04/senate-presidential-polling-alabama-kentucky-sc-texas/]https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/04/senate-presidential-polling-alabama-kentucky-sc-texas/

[/link]Morning Consult: 
[h1]Republicans Lead Senate Races in Alabama, Kentucky and Texas, With South Carolina within MoE[/h1]  
[ul][*] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) leads Democrat Amy McGrath by 17 points, 53% to 36%.
[*] Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Democrat Jaime Harrison are statistically tied, 44% to 43%.
[*] Vulnerable Sen. Doug Jones (D) trails Tommy Tuberville, 35% to 52%
[/ul]  

[kaldridgewv2211]

Can we judge these people by who they elect?  If Mitch wins does that mean the people of KY are two headed snakes.
 
Like to see Jamie Harrison take out Lindsey.  He got the Obama endorsement yesterday.  I think he already had Clyburn.
 
Tommy Tuberville is an idiot.

[Unknown Member]

Id like to see James Harrison take out Lindsey Graham

[clickpenguin_460]

I would be pretty surprised if McConnell, Graham, or Tuberville loses.  I don’t think those are the races most likely to go Dem…  Gardner has no chance, for example.  Collins is 50/50.   Normally, Bullock would be strong but I think Montana is going to go all Red since it’s a Presidential year ticket.

[btomba_77]

[h1]Polls for Key Senate Battlegrounds[/h1]  
[b]New Data for Progress polls in four important Senate battlegrounds: [/b]
[ul][*][link=http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/progressive-senate-project/DFP_North%20Carolina_8_20_xtabs.pdf]North Carolina[/link]: Cunningham 49%, Tillis 41%[*][link=http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/progressive-senate-project/DFP_Maine_8_20_xtabs.pdf]Maine[/link]: Gideon 48%, Collins 45%[*][link=http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/progressive-senate-project/DFP_Iowa_8_20_xtabs.pdf]Iowa[/link]: Greenfield 45%, Earnst 43%[*][link=http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/progressive-senate-project/DFP_Arizona_8_20_xtabs.pdf]Arizona[/link]: Kelly 50%, McSally 40% [/ul]  

[clickpenguin_460]

Monmouth had Ernst +1 yesterday also.

[btomba_77]

New [link=https://poll.qu.edu/south-carolina/release-detail?ReleaseID=3670]Quinnipiac polls[/link] of some interesting U.S. Senate races:
[ul][*]South Carolina: Graham 44%, Harrison 44%[*]Maine: Gideon 47%, Collins 43%[*]Kentucky: McConnell 49%, McGrath 44% [/ul] Said pollster Tim Malloy: Big political names. Huge political stakes. High anxiety for the GOP. Three GOP Senators who easily won their last reelection bids are looking over their shoulders less than three months from Election Day.
 

[btomba_77]

[link=http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/]http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-senate/

[/link]UVA Center for Politics Senate Map update 8/5:

[img]http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020_08_05_Senate_Ratings_600.png[/img]

[btomba_77]

[b]Gideon Leads In Maine[/b][/h1]  
A new [link=https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Maine-Toplines-July-2020.pdf]RMG Group survey[/link] in Maine finds Sarah Gideon (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41%.

 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511401-lincoln-project-expands-gop-target-list-winning-trump-ire]https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/511401-lincoln-project-expands-gop-target-list-winning-trump-ire

[/link]
Lincoln Project expands GOP target list, winning Trump ire[/h1]

Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings reveal The Lincoln Project has also targeted more than a half-dozen other Republicans up for reelection in 2020, including Sens. [link=https://thehill.com/people/cory-gardner]Cory Gardner[/link] (Colo), [link=https://thehill.com/people/martha-mcsally]Martha McSally[/link] (Ariz.), [link=https://thehill.com/people/lindsey-graham]Lindsey Graham[/link] (S.C.), [link=https://thehill.com/people/sen-thom-tillis]Thom Tillis[/link] (N.C.), [link=https://thehill.com/people/joni-ernst]Joni Ernst[/link] (Iowa), [link=https://thehill.com/people/john-cornyn]John Cornyn[/link] (Texas) and Senate Majority Leader [link=https://thehill.com/people/mitch-mcconnell]Mitch McConnell[/link] (Ky.).
 
The group is running ads in support of Democratic Senate candidates [link=https://thehill.com/people/steve-bullock]Steve Bullock[/link] in Montana and Al Gross in Alaska, who are seeking to unseat Sens. [link=https://thehill.com/people/steve-daines]Steve Daines[/link] (R-Mont.) and [link=https://thehill.com/people/daniel-sullivan]Dan Sullivan[/link] (R-Alaska), respectively.

Reed Galen, a strategist for the group, told The Hill that the Senate map has expanded and that off-cycle Senate Republicans shouldnt believe their day wont come. The Lincoln Project has invested very small amounts in ads going after Sens. [link=https://thehill.com/people/marco-rubio]Marco Rubio[/link] (R-Fla.), [link=https://thehill.com/people/ted-cruz]Ted Cruz[/link] (R-Texas), [link=https://thehill.com/people/james-inhofe]James Inhofe[/link] (R-Okla.) and [link=https://thehill.com/people/marion-mike-rounds]Mike Rounds[/link] (R-S.D.).

Galen said the group is also taking a look at the House, with a potential announcement on that front coming soon. In addition, The Lincoln Project is planning a substantive and robust effort to encourage voters to send in mail or absentee ballots.[/QUOTE]
 

[clickpenguin_460]

I can understand “Never Trumpers” going after Trump, but I find they lose their credibility as anything other than Dem partisans if they are going after all of these Republican Senators – some of which are pretty traditionally Republican.

[kaldridgewv2211]

just based on the list above these are people who are lampreys on the great orange shark.  Canadian Ted Cruz’ wife was called ugly and he still kisses the ring.  Little Marco used to speak out against Trump and now he kisses the ring.   You can play a highlight reel of the things Lindsey said about Trump that are massively negative, and now he kisses the ring.  They all deserve the blasting they’re receiving from Lincoln project and others.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Cubsfan10

I can understand “Never Trumpers” going after Trump, but I find they lose their credibility as anything other than Dem partisans if they are going after all of these Republican Senators – some of which are pretty traditionally Republican.

they can answwer:
 
[link=https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/08/05/defeat-trump-republican-senate-enablers-lincoln-project-column/3291032001/]https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/08/05/defeat-trump-republican-senate-enablers-lincoln-project-column/3291032001/[/link]
 
[b]Why Trump’s Republican Senate enablers must be ousted this fall:[/b]
 
“It is hard for any serious student of history to deny the common themes of McCarthyism and Trumpism. Both are constructed on a foundation of us vs. them, suspicion of those who were not born in America, attempts to silence protest and dissent, and demonizing those who hold independent or unpopular beliefs.”
 
“The Republican majority in the Senate has become nothing more than protection racket for a president who has repeatedly declared he would accept foreign assistance in his campaigns and was impeached for trying to get a foreign leader to help him win.”
 
“Rather than strengthening their resolve to preserve the great ideal of America, Republican senators have become progressively more anemic in their response to this wannabe strongman of a president. They have become puny and faint-hearted, spineless and weak-willed. They have proven they are not worthy of the constitutional responsibilities bestowed upon them by their election to the esteemed United States Senate.”
 
…
 
“There are no such heroic voices among the Republican senators up for reelection today.
They have been cowed by this president. They have been silent when the country needs them to speak, weak when our nation needs their strength. And every one of them should expect to be held accountable one way or another. The Susan Collins ad will not be The Lincoln Project’s last one reminding voters of these Republican senators’ fealty and weakness.
Voting against a bill that would have failed anyway, opposing a procedural motion and dismissing the presidents threatening tweets as jokes does not excuse their feebleness in face of the grave danger Trump poses.
Elections are about leadership and accountability. Republicans will pay a price for lacking both.”
 
 

 

[clickpenguin_460]

Because Trump is a Republican and they are Republicans and they have supported some/most (depending on who) of his things, they are enablers?  What the heck are they supposed to do?  How the heck is Susan Collins a Trump enabler lol
 
Republicans are weak for sure but it’s more that they lack backbone to stand up to the Dems rather than Trump.  Dems shape the media and public narrative almost completely as the minority party.

[Unknown Member]

Stand up to Dems?

Does that mean twitter fights sticking up for the confederate flag and pandering to religious conservatives by holding a bible upside down in front of a church that he never attended

AWESOME

[clickpenguin_460]

Actually it doesn’t.

[katiemckee84_223]

Jennifer Horn lol, dergon’s ADD back again

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Cory Gardners Pro-Trump Ad Only Seen Outside Colorado[/b][/h1]  
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) is running a new Facebook ad, touting his close relationship with President Trump but its only targeted to voters outside of Colorado, the [link=https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cory-gardner-donald-trump-senate-campaign-ad-colorado_n_5f358a9ac5b64cc99fe40abd]HuffPost[/link] reports.
 

[mpezeshkirad_710]

It’s going to be a triumvirate of Biden, Schumer, Pelosi.  Country is doomed.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Takayasu

It’s going to be a triumvirate of Biden, Schumer, Pelosi.  Country is doomed.

I am only confident of 1 of those in 2020 …. Pelosi.
 
____
 
That said, the country will be fine if the GOP can find it’s way out of the cul-de-sac it has driven itself down.  The party has been heading that way for 20 years.  They saw the house at the end of the road in the distance and decided to tie a brick to the accelerator with Trump.
 
It is becoming a party of white rural people in a nation that is growing browner and more urban.  In order to accommodate that white base, the Republicans are forced to take more extremist positions and adopt anti-democratic (small d) tactics like voter suppression.
 
They already have a very difficult time winning the national popular vote.  How long they will have an intrinsic benefit from the electoral college and rural senate is unclear. (I have seen some analysis that the GOP could remain nearly entirely the white party … if they just get 5% more of the white vote they can hold the EC for 20 more years despite losing the popular … add on more aggressive voter suppression techniques and who knows …. but it makes coming back later a greater challenge)
 
 
My hope is that the Republican party can find its way to being able to compete for a national majority of American citizens solely on the basis of ideas … where if we had a national mandatory vote it would come out about 50/50.   That probably meas making some kind of peace with immigration enough to win Latino and Asian votes. It also means getting back white college educated voters… that will require making some peace with science/climate etc.
 
 
 
 

[btomba_77]

[link=https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-likely-lean-republican]Cook Political Report[/link]: [b]South Carolina Senate Moves From Likely to Lean Republican[/b]

While there are still large hurdles that remain for Harrison to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998, its clear this race is becoming more competitive, and Graham faces an incredibly strong challenge.
 
In the races in our Likely Republican column, this is also the one some national Republicans view as the more competitive. We are moving South Carolina from Likely to Lean Republican.
 

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from dergon

Quote from Takayasu

It’s going to be a triumvirate of Biden, Schumer, Pelosi.  Country is doomed.

I am only confident of 1 of those in 2020 …. Pelosi.

____

That said, the country will be fine if the GOP can find it’s way out of the cul-de-sac it has driven itself down.  The party has been heading that way for 20 years.  They saw the house at the end of the road in the distance and decided to tie a brick to the accelerator with Trump.

It is becoming a party of white rural people in a nation that is growing browner and more urban.  In order to accommodate that white base, the Republicans are forced to take more extremist positions and adopt anti-democratic (small d) tactics like voter suppression.

They already have a very difficult time winning the national popular vote.  How long they will have an intrinsic benefit from the electoral college and rural senate is unclear. (I have seen some analysis that the GOP could remain nearly entirely the white party … if they just get 5% more of the white vote they can hold the EC for 20 more years despite losing the popular … add on more aggressive voter suppression techniques and who knows …. but it makes coming back later a greater challenge)

My hope is that the Republican party can find its way to being able to compete for a national majority of American citizens solely on the basis of ideas … where if we had a national mandatory vote it would come out about 50/50.   That probably meas making some kind of peace with immigration enough to win Latino and Asian votes. It also means getting back white college educated voters… that will require making some peace with science/climate etc.

 
Good thoughts.  I have always found a similar concept interesting – the fact that Hispanics increasingly define themselves as “white” and not Hispanic.  As you said, the Repubs may become the “white” party but it’s unclear who all that will encompass.  A lot of Hispanics have conservative ideals and if Republicans weren’t so stupid on immigration policies/tactics, they would get a lot more of them (similar to GW Bush levels, maybe more)
 
[link=https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/upshot/more-hispanics-declaring-themselves-white.html]https://www.nytimes.com/2…-themselves-white.html[/link]
[link=https://prospect.org/civil-rights/latino-flight-whiteness/]https://prospect.org/civi…tino-flight-whiteness/[/link]
[link=https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2017/12/20/hispanic-identity-fades-across-generations-as-immigrant-connections-fall-away/]https://www.pewresearch.o…connections-fall-away/[/link]
 
Black voters tend to also be more moderate.  Remains to be seen if extreme Left agendas will push them away (to not voting; not sure they will move to vote Republican in any significant number)
Non-hispanic immigrants (esp those of color) seem to be very liberal and then of course there’s a block of white liberals.
 
I guess what I’m saying is that I’m not so sure the parties are going to be defined by color in 20 years…or even after Trump.  I hope that that is the case and I agree with you in that the people should be voting for parties based on ideas and not skin color.

[btomba_77]

Yeah… some interesting thoughts there.
 
An argument can absolutely be made that the Latino vote *should* be up for grabs by the GOP … larger families, more Christian than whites.   But poll after poll shows immigration as a threshold issue for Latinos.  A majority just can’t bring themselves to vote Republican because of the stance on immigration.  
 
Similar thoughts on the black vote, but even more extreme.  Even if black voters are more moderate, the fact that vast majorites of them consider the GOP to be a party of racists makes it impossible to compete for a sizable percentage.
 
 
 
I think the politics of race….. Latino, black, Asian … will be with us for generations to come.

[clickpenguin_460]

You might be right. I just wish we could get past race.  Our human minds may never let us though.  It will be one shade of brown vs. another in 200 years (ha).
 
Also, those are some of the biggest failings with the Repub party.  It’s truly remarkable how bad they have been re: race and immigration.  Even the ones that aren’t racist and have done some good things (even Trumps First Step Act) can’t frame any sort of positive narrative.  Too much bad rhetoric from some has outweighed some good thoughts and policies by others.  You and I  had that previous reasonable discussion about a good immigration compromise for example that should and could happen but won’t due to extremists.
 
Like even now, Repubs should be out there saying they want to help protect minority communities so they support increased policing but increased training and reduced use of violence.  Instead they just send in “troops” and don’t act like they even care.  Heck, they act like they care more about monuments than the black people dying in Chicago, etc.  Just really terrible at focusing on what matters.  Dems are at fault for a lot of things in the cities (a separate topic) and thus both parties are extremely inept at this modern urban violence issue.  You can’t just throw money (dems) or guns (repubs) at it and expect things to change.

[btomba_77]

Quote from Cubsfan10

You might be right. I just wish we could get past race.  Our human minds may never let us though.  It will be one shade of brown vs. another in 200 years (ha).

 
I would even go a bit further than my original comment.
 
I would say that the fight for political power/influence/resources between younger browner Americans and older whiter Americans will be one the major if not the primary domestic fight of the 21st century.

[clickpenguin_460]

Ugh, I hope it’s not split solely on race like that.  That would be ugly for everyone.

[btomba_77]

[b]McSally Asks Backers to Fast So They Can Afford to Donate rather than Eat  [/b]

Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) presented an unusual fundraising pitch in audio obtained by [link=https://www.azfamily.com/video/mcsally-asks-supporters-to-fast-a-meal-so-they-can-donate-to-her-campaign/video_39defdde-0d32-5032-821c-39be4761e8c8.html]KPHO[/link]: She suggested supporters to fast for a meal then give her the money that they save as a campaign donation
 
Said McSally: Were doing our best to catch up, you know, to get our message out. But it takes resources if you can give $5, $10. If you can, fast a meal and give what that would be.

 

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from dergon

[b]McSally Asks Backers to Fast So They Can Afford to Donate rather than Eat  [/b]

Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) presented an unusual fundraising pitch in audio obtained by [link=https://www.azfamily.com/video/mcsally-asks-supporters-to-fast-a-meal-so-they-can-donate-to-her-campaign/video_39defdde-0d32-5032-821c-39be4761e8c8.html]KPHO[/link]: She suggested supporters to fast for a meal then give her the money that they save as a campaign donation

Said McSally: Were doing our best to catch up, you know, to get our message out. But it takes resources if you can give $5, $10. If you can, fast a meal and give what that would be.

 
That is just terrible.  One of the worst suggestions by a campaign I’ve seen in awhile.

[Unknown Member]

Quote from Cubsfan10

You might be right. I just wish we could get past race.  Our human minds may never let us though.  It will be one shade of brown vs. another in 200 years (ha).

Also, those are some of the biggest failings with the Repub party.  It’s truly remarkable how bad they have been re: race and immigration.  Even the ones that aren’t racist and have done some good things (even Trumps First Step Act) can’t frame any sort of positive narrative.  Too much bad rhetoric from some has outweighed some good thoughts and policies by others.  You and I  had that previous reasonable discussion about a good immigration compromise for example that should and could happen but won’t due to extremists.

Like even now, Repubs should be out there saying they want to help protect minority communities so they support increased policing but increased training and reduced use of violence.  Instead they just send in “troops” and don’t act like they even care.  Heck, they act like they care more about monuments than the black people dying in Chicago, etc.  Just really terrible at focusing on what matters.  Dems are at fault for a lot of things in the cities (a separate topic) and thus both parties are extremely inept at this modern urban violence issue.  You can’t just throw money (dems) or guns (repubs) at it and expect things to change.

 
No it won’t. We can’t get past race until people stop talking about it. If you are forced to talk about people in groups, then you have to admit the differences between groups, and that they aren’t equal as groups – they have different tendencies, proclivities and talents. This is known by every student of biology and history.
 
In Singapore they have already understood that if you have different groups living among one another, the only way to make it work is by extremely free economic system (harmony) and authoritarianism. Period. Ask those “racist” or “bigoted” Asians why they decided that was the case. Uh, maybe because they saw the only way things actually work?

[clickpenguin_460]

Quote from Castlevania

Quote from Cubsfan10

You might be right. I just wish we could get past race.  Our human minds may never let us though.  It will be one shade of brown vs. another in 200 years (ha).

Also, those are some of the biggest failings with the Repub party.  It’s truly remarkable how bad they have been re: race and immigration.  Even the ones that aren’t racist and have done some good things (even Trumps First Step Act) can’t frame any sort of positive narrative.  Too much bad rhetoric from some has outweighed some good thoughts and policies by others.  You and I  had that previous reasonable discussion about a good immigration compromise for example that should and could happen but won’t due to extremists.

Like even now, Repubs should be out there saying they want to help protect minority communities so they support increased policing but increased training and reduced use of violence.  Instead they just send in “troops” and don’t act like they even care.  Heck, they act like they care more about monuments than the black people dying in Chicago, etc.  Just really terrible at focusing on what matters.  Dems are at fault for a lot of things in the cities (a separate topic) and thus both parties are extremely inept at this modern urban violence issue.  You can’t just throw money (dems) or guns (repubs) at it and expect things to change.

No it won’t. We can’t get past race until people stop talking about it. If you are forced to talk about people in groups, then you have to admit the differences between groups, and that they aren’t equal as groups – they have different tendencies, proclivities and talents. This is known by every student of biology and history.

In Singapore they have already understood that if you have different groups living among one another, the only way to make it work is by extremely free economic system (harmony) and authoritarianism. Period. Ask those “racist” or “bigoted” Asians why they decided that was the case. Uh, maybe because they saw the only way things actually work?

 
Liberals will continue to separate people as long as it continues to win them elections.

[btomba_77]

Pot meet kettle.
 
 

[btomba_77]

Alaska Senate Race Is Tied

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska finds challenger Al Gross (I) in a dead heat with with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) for U.S. Senate, 43% to 43%, with 12% unsure.

[btomba_77]

SENATE RACE POLLS (FOX NEWS)
 
[link=https://twitter.com/hashtag/AZSen?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1301279466644213760%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.flyertalk.com%2Fforum%2Fomni-pr%2F1625034-control-senate-predictions-discussion-67.html&src=hashtag_click]#AZSen[/link] Kelly (D): 56% McSally (R-inc): 39%
 
[link=https://twitter.com/hashtag/NCSen?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1301279466644213760%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.flyertalk.com%2Fforum%2Fomni-pr%2F1625034-control-senate-predictions-discussion-67.html&src=hashtag_click]#NCSen[/link] Cunningham (D): 48% Tillis (R-inc): 42%

[bunnie_face_936]

No shit, some purport that the response to the lawsuit at yale that some asians are being harmed by affirmative action is to break up the asian group into various subgroups. Really, what they’re wanting to do is factor in income as the most important factor (the right thing to do, in reality) but they won’t say that…
 
Rich, white socialist angsty teens who have been raised among mostly other rich white people and are ready to tear up the system don’t quite understand that the rich part is more important than the race part

[btomba_77]

[h1]McConnell Says Control of Senate a “50-50 Situation” like a “Knife Fight[/h1]  
Asked if he thinks Donald Trump is a net positive for Senate Republican candidates on the ticket, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would only tell [link=https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/politics/mitch-mcconnell-senate-majority/index.html]CNN[/link]: Well find out. Thats something that well only know the day after the election.
 
McConnell said its just a hugely challenging cycle to hold onto the majority and said its a 50-50 situation, arguing that races in Montana, Colorado, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina, Maine and Georgia are far too close to call.
 
He added: Thats why I describe it like a knife fight in an alley. Everybodys slugging it out.
 

[kaldridgewv2211]

Putin’s Mitch is still +5 on Amy McGrath.  Kentucky gonna keep on Kentuckying the rest of us.
 
[link=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/kentucky/]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/kentucky/[/link]

[clickpenguin_460]

If McGrath can’t beat him, then no one will.  She’s the best, moderate-type candidate they could have hoped for IMO.

[btomba_77]

[link=https://www.globalstrategygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CO-Mountaineer-Q3-Survey-Topline-F09.03.20.pdf]Global Strategy Group*[/link]

Colorado:
[b]Hickenlooper +10 , 52/42[/b]

[btomba_77]

[h1]Mark Kelly +10 Senate In Arizona[/h1]  
A new [link=https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200908%20AZPOP/AZPOP%20Crosstabs%20-%20Senate.pdf]OH Predictive Insights poll[/link] in Arizona finds Mark Kelly (D) leading Sen. Martha McSally (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 52% to 42%.
 

[btomba_77]

[h1]Susan Collins Trails, Lindsey Graham Ties, McConnell holds wide Lead[/h1]  
New [link=https://poll.qu.edu/south-carolina/release-detail?ReleaseID=3673]Quinnipiac polls[/link] of several interesting U.S. Senate races:
[ul][*]Maine: Sarah Gideon (D) 54%, Susan Collins (R) 42%[*]South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) 48%, Jaime Harrison (D) 48%[*]Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) 53%, Amy McGrath (D) 41% [/ul]  

[kaldridgewv2211]

I guess if Mitch won’t lose there’s always hoping Lindsey does.  I did notice that he was out there saying it’s been 5 days why hasn’t Jamie Harrison released his taxes.  Then Jamie did release them.  Too bad he doesn’t ask the same of Trump.  

[btomba_77]

[h1][b]Prior Kansas GOP Senator Endorses Democrat for Her Old Seat[/b][/h1]  

Former Sen. Nancy Kassebaum (R-KS) endorsed Barbara Bollier (D) for the Senate seat that she held for 18 years, the [link=https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article245780930.html#storylink=cpy]Kansas City Star[/link] reports.
This is the second time in two election cycles that Kassebaum has endorsed a Democrat in a statewide race, [link=https://politicalwire.com/2018/09/18/nancy-kassebaum-backs-democrat-for-kansas-governor/]announcing her support for Laura Kelly[/link] (D) in the 2018 race for governor.[/QUOTE]
 

[btomba_77]

[b]Jaime Harrison Raises $1 Million In Less Than 24 Hours[/b][/h1]  
 
 
Jaime Harrison (D) [link=https://twitter.com/harrisonjaime/status/1306576476045799424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1306576476045799424%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fcampaign%2F516864-graham-opponent-says-he-raised-1m-in-a-day-after-poll-showed-tied-race]announced that he raised $1 million[/link] within a day after a poll found him tied with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina.

 

Y'all, I am speechless. We have raised over $1 MILLION in the last 24 hours 😲

This campaign is powered by you. It is funded by you. It is inspired by you. Together, we are going to make history in 47 days. We are going to beat @LindseyGrahamSC.

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) September 17, 2020

[btomba_77]

[b]Senate Democrats to Spend In South Carolina Race[/b][/h1]  
 
The DSCC announced theyre going in with a seven-figure investment to help Jaime Harrison (D) in the South Carolina U.S. Senate race, according to the [link=https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1306664609403854848]Cook Political Report[/link].

 

[btomba_77]

[b]FiveThirtyEight 2020 Senate Forecast released:[/b]
 
[b] [/b]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/   

Democrats slightly favored to hold the Senate.

Three ways they look at polling: “Lite, Classic, and Deluxe”

In all three Dems are favored to win the Senate.  Based on polling alone the average median outcome ranges from D 50.4 seats to D 51.4 seats.

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EiMYd8tXcAAClGz?format=jpg&name=medium[/img]

[kaldridgewv2211]

Isn’t 50.4 a tie with the VP being the tie breaker.

[clickpenguin_460]

I wouldn’t count on Manchin to do silly things like eliminate the filibuster either.  Maybe not even Sinema.